To The Moon

The market managed a green close today despite heavy negative sentiment. While the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ (+0.44%) move might have been emotionally surprising to the crowd, it was technically valid. As analyzed in our Weekly Compass, the charts specifically signaled this bullish potential. The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ followed suit, gaining +0.6%. Last week, our Daily Levels were instrumental in anticipating bullish reversals. These modeled “Bullish Above / Bearish Below” indicators act as your primary momentum compass, while our structured Support and Resistance (S/R) levels define the high-probability destinations for the move. Example QQQ (SPX is below with more securities): For tomorrow, the QQQ must hold above

Rare levels of bearish sentiment in $SPX historically lead to relief rallies and often precede major bottoms, while $GOOG shows a bullish stochastic crossover in oversold territory—typically a strong setup for a rebound. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Over the last 30 years, we have seen this level of bearish sentiment (55%) only a few times. Relief rallies have followed without fail; even when those rallies were short-lived A major bottom materialized few weeks after. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 2. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Bullish stochastic crossovers in the oversold zone (at or below 20) usually precede solid bounces. 11 successful cases and 2 exceptions (2022) in 10 yea

Despite the extreme bearish sentiment last weekend, I anticipated that a bounce was coming, citing a high likelihood of a relief rally, “as the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ were showing potential for a trend reversal.” Pessimism was as high as it was in April 2025, but staying focused on technical indicators is essential, regardless of the noise. Markets closed the first week of April with their first weekly gain since the Iran conflict began. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 3.4%

Markets are showing early signs of a sentiment shift, with smart money turning optimistic even as broader fear remains elevated. This divergence suggests the current bounce may have room to extend, but confirmation—especially through key technical breakouts like Nvidia’s—remains critical. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Smart money confidence is optimistic while dumb money is neutral. The Fear & Greed Index continues at Extreme Fear. Green circles highlight increase in smart money confidence and bullish moves that followed. The bounce could have more fuel. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The 20DMA has been rejecting price since March. The candle looks bullish, but volume is low. It needs a breakout above the downtrend to sh

The market continues to produce rapid moves that can trap both bulls and bears. This week, for the first time in over a month, the trap favored the bulls; after five consecutive weeks in the red, the main indices finally closed with over 3% gains each, the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ jumped during the week 3.95%. Modeled Support and Resistance Levels Framed Price Action The pathway to a green close was not smooth. On Monday, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ extended its oversold conditions, moving toward the bearish weekly target of $6,216. Once the overextension concluded, also breaching the lower daily Bollinger Band, the price began the “imminent bounce” anticipated this weekend in the Weekly Compass, where I mentioned th

The stock market is bouncing from the extreme oversold conditions identified during the weekend. While the rally continued today, we must determine if this move is finally sustainable or if the trend of “Inverse U turns” that dominated March will persist. Current price action suggests indecision; in fact, it suggests a potential reversal, with a gap below that is likely to act as a magnet in the very short term. It remains to be seen if the market will maintain the momentum from yesterday. Last night, I posted the Central Monthly Levels for April, which are the key levels where price switches from bullish (above) to bearish (below). The stock market moves in a mathematic way, for that reason these modeled levels work so well. Indecisive Price Action Once Again

Potential squeeze size based on the nearest gaps: -> $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +2.1% -> $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : +2.7% -> $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ : +3.2% The conviction with which price crosses intermediate levels and reclaims these gaps will determine the overall strength of the bounce. :As mentioned this weekend and yesterday, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ oversold conditions were extreme. Moment of Truth: Price filled the gap and hit the 10DMA, the dominant March trendline. Today’s difference: the candle shows bullish conviction. Next major hurdle: the 200DMA. Bulls face a monumental task in April: neutralizing this bear

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ failed to hold above $6,392 today the key level mentioned in the Weekly Compass, and losing that level opened the door for a decline to the next daily support at $6,331. Despite this, oversold conditions remain extremely overstretched, with price sitting below the Bollinger Bands in several timeframes, suggesting a spike could occur at any moment. It is worth noting that the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ declined today even as indices closed in the red; this divergence often serves as an early warning of an imminent squeeze. In high-volatility environments, our daily levels are essential for navigating these wide weekly ranges. The VIX closed today at 30. From the securities posted i

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Be careful about being too bearish in the short term, as the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ also closed in the red. The similarity to 2025 is impressive, especially with the RSI below 30 and the lower Bollinger Band breached; both oversold conditions that preceded a bounce. Bounce in the making, futures gaping down create a bullish magnet for a likely bounce this week. $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ : The Money Flow Index for the Financial Sector closed last Friday at historical lows: levels seen only 8 times in the last 25 years. A bounce followed every single time. Today's action was constructive. Shortest-lived spikes: 2011 (+5%) an

Markets are at extreme oversold levels. $NDX and $SPX MFI signals historically trigger relief rallies, while $NVDA below its lower Bollinger Band points to mean reversion. A tactical bounce is likely, pending key level reclaim. 1. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Over the last 25 years, a relief rally has followed when the Money Flow Index reached current levels. There have been no exceptions, including the dot-com bubble in 2000, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2022 bear market. The current reading is below the 2025 lows. 2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The Money Flow Index is at significant lows, suggesting a tactical bounce is nearby as analyzed since 2000. Black arrows highlight relief bounces even in bear markets. While m