Markets are showing signs of extreme short-term stress, with weak breadth and key technical levels being tested. While oversold conditions suggest a potential bounce, the key question is whether this is the start of a sustainable recovery or just a temporary relief move. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ When the percentage of stocks above their 20 and 50 daily moving averages is this low (below 20%), a bottom is typically in or nearby. How sustainable will be this bounce? 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Once again, the lower Bollinger brand has been breached. This event has been followed by rallies (✅) or tactical bounces (no mark). When the lower band continues breached (❌) it has been an early signal of a significant bounce

Markets are approaching a key inflection point. Bearish sentiment on $SPX has reached elevated levels often seen near short-term bottoms, while $ES is retesting major moving averages and $IWM shows stronger structure. The next few sessions will be critical as key levels determine whether a bounce can take hold or downside continues. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Bearish sentiment stands at 52%, surpassing the bottoms of both the 2023 corrections and the 2024 carry trade unwind. While bearishness could still drift higher, reaching these extremes have been printed near sustainable bounces. 2. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ Moment of truth: The 200DMA is being retested, along with the 10DMA which has

$Apple(AAPL)$ : Potential reversal setup at the 200DMA and the lower edge of the volume shelf. The latest indecisive price action is validated by high daily volume. If it bounces, $249.7 must be recovered next week to consider sustainable move. Bounce incoming? The S/R levels for next week are here, these levels frame price action even in volatile environments. These are the zones where algorithms and institutions react. Key weekly levels that any bounce in the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ and more must reclaim $Financial Select Se

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged inflation progress but cited Middle East developments as a source of deep economic uncertainty. Rate cut expectations for 2026 have been largely priced out. The higher for longer environment weighed on utilities and technology. $Micron Technology(MU)$ fell nearly 4% after third-quarter guidance missed expectations. In crypto, Bitcoin briefly decoupled from equities to reclaim $74,000 on Monday before institutional selling renewed pressure through the week. If you missed the latest special about oil and stagflation, including a long term study of major tops in the stock market, make sure to read it, this is essential for long term investors and trade

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ A bottom is near in terms of Time, not necessarily in terms of Price. Money Flow is nearing the 2018, 2022, and 2025 lows and has already dropped below the 2020 levels. While the %B is also oversold. After four red weeks, a flush could accelerate the case for a reversal. $SPY $654 was the "must-visit" price I shared on Saturday with subscribers, even with Monday's spike. Today’s low hit $655🎯. Given the support zone (200DMA + Shelf), $659 must hold tomorrow for a minimum recovery to $663; otherwise, today was a gap fill and the decline resumes. SPY Another Inverse "U-Turn": This has been the price action mood for over a month. Looks like a seventh week

The stock market is struggling. With a rapid sell-off, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is down -5.41% in March alone and is heading toward correction territory. For now, the “vanishing bounces” continue; this was the seventh out of the last eight weeks to feature this pattern. This typically means a green opening driven by extreme oversold conditions, followed by a fading rally. Lately, the sell-offs have accelerated earlier in the week. While the S&P 500 recovered its Central Weekly Level of $6,700 on Monday, the price action vanished on Tuesday, and the decline intensified by Wednesday when that level flipped to resistance. Our downside levels were met: $6,555 acted as first line on defense on Thursday, and then $6,479 is where the price bounced on

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Another Inverse "U-Turn": This has been the price action mood for over a month. Looks like a seventh week of "fake bounces," is coming adding another arch to the structure. $654 is the the primary downside destination for the week. On Saturday, I posted the following outlook: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is bearish below $6,700.4. I also included specific volatility levels and additional technical indicators to monitor. This morning, I shared a chart via chat and email suggesting a bearish reversal. This outlook is based on yesterday’s vanishing rally and current bearish conditions, with both the SPY and $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ trading below the

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Daily Shooting Star: Yesterday's highs were recovered, but a lack of conviction prints the same setup seen last week. Reclaiming the 5DMA is positive, but vanishing moves persist at downtrend resistance below the 10DMA. Levels must hold through #FOMC, or expect a déjà vu. Many resistances at this zone. For that reason the lack of conviction is something big to watch. The reaction to interest rate decision will tell. Bearish until proven otherwise. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : The anticipated spike played out, bringing price back into the Bollinger range. However, today's most critical takeaway is the vanishing rally. The downtrend remains intact; price must conquer today’s high b

Market indicators suggest the selloff may be approaching a timing bottom, with $SPY money flows nearing levels seen during past crash periods. Meanwhile, $NDX is sitting at a critical support confluence near the 200DMA, where a breakdown could accelerate downside momentum. Among the Magnificent Seven tracked by $MAGS, only $GOOG, $AAPL, and $NVDA remain above their key long-term trend support. 1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The money flow is nearing bottoming levels seen during the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025 crashes. A bottom is near in terms of time, not necessarily in the magnitude of flush. A bounce must be sustained in short and long term. See the local bottom of March 2022 for context. 2. $NASDAQ 100

The stock market has been characterized by exceptionally choppy price action over the last seven weeks. We witnessed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ go nowhere for three months, spanning the final quarter of 2025 through January 2026. That directionless route is found a resolution to the bearish side as anticipated at the end of January when this publication anticipated “Cracks Under the Surface”. However, the most striking feature of the current market is the lack of conviction. If you are a new trader feeling frustrated by the inability to find a clear trend as a bull or a bear, do not worry. This environment is uncommon. Usually, pullbacks are marked by solid bearish conviction candles

Losing the Central Monthly level for a short period like in November happens a couple of times per year, however, few weeks ago I highlighted that staying below this level for long is a concerning condition from corrections and bear markets. Currently the price for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and most of the securities from our watchlist is below this level. The second chart is a zoom in of the Central Weekly Level for the same period, see the price breaching the “C” marked in green in some weeks as part of the normal price action of a bull market. Since February, the dotted area shows how volatile has been the price printing multiple invalidations or reversals during the same week. The zoomed chart includes the Central Weekly Level AND the support an

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Even during persistent downtrends, such as the 2025 tariff crash, breaching the lower Bollinger Band has consistently represented an extreme condition that triggers relief bounces. No exception. There is no doubt a short squeeze is coming considering also the McClellan Oscillator that is more oversold than it was in the 2025 bottom. The key point is to watch if $6,882 is recovered, that would validate a solid and sustainable bounce. The bearish move is overextended as posted previously, and seasonality favors a bounce. $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ has the same overextended setup as the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . Fo

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : Two valid perspectives on this chart: A) Bearish: Every bounce has faded; lower highs have persisted for a month. B) Bullish: The volume shelf is holding, and a Stochastic crossover suggests continuation. My take: Bullish above $676; breakdown below. ⚖️ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : $601 The Money Flow Index is as oversold as the 2023 correction and the 2025 bottom. It sits BELOW COVID crash levels, exceeded only by the 2022 bear market lows. Most of the bearish move is in. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

On Sunday night, Crude Oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ reached the extreme overbought conditions that I highlighted using the chart below in my Substack Notes and on X. For the paid community, I provided that same analysis in our private chat, including the weekly levels where a reversal was most likely to occur. The overbought conditions relative to the Bollinger Bands reached historic extremes, surpassing levels seen during the 1990 Gulf War and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Unlike the price-driven peaks of 2008, this overbought conditions are the result of rapid price action fueled by extreme sentiment and a geopolitical conflict. The high of the week so far has been $119, near the modeled level of $122.9, the price has retraced sin

$Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ The Mag7 ETF shows the situation for the giants: Weakening price action and here a downtrend set by the 20 daily average. The lower highs and lower lows is narrowing. A breach of $61.2 would trigger a revisit of the lows and a validation of the reversal candle. That said, bullish above $61.2. As the oversold McClellan Oscillator and the breach of the lower Bollinger Band suggested, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ price was set for a bounce today. The index now must sustain itself above the key weekly level to validate this move. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks,

U.S. equities staged a technical rebound after extreme oversold signals triggered across key indicators. With the S&P 500 attempting to hold a critical weekly level and Invesco QQQ Trust showing historically deep oversold readings, the recent selloff may be approaching exhaustion even as volatility remains elevated. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ As the oversold McClellan Oscillator and the breach of the lower Bollinger Band suggested, price was set for a bounce today. The index now must sustain itself above the key weekly level to validate this move. 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ The Money Flow Index is as oversold as the 2023 correction and the 2025 bottom. It sits BELOW COVID crash levels, exceeded only by the 2022

U.S. equities are flashing short-term oversold signals across multiple indices, with extreme readings in breadth indicators and Bollinger Band breakdowns suggesting a potential technical bounce after the recent selloff. 📉📊 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The McClellan Oscillator has reached levels where price action begins to form a bounce, including the August 2024 Carry Trade selloff and the 2025 Tariff Crash. 2. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Price printed an isolated candle below the lower Bollinger Band. The high daily volume validates the significance of this formation. Sell-offs rarely move in a straight line; a formation like this often marks a local bottom or a "climax" event. 3.

Geopolitical events present a unique pricing challenge for financial markets. Unlike earnings reports or Federal Reserve decisions that arrive on a known schedule, geopolitical shocks are by nature unpredictable, rare, and of uncertain duration. This combination of characteristics creates a specific market dynamic: sharp initial reaction driven by uncertainty, followed by rapid reassessment as facts emerge. There are three primary channels through which geopolitical shocks affect asset prices: 1) disruption to cross-border trade and investment, 2) contagion through financial linkages, and 3) elevated macroeconomic uncertainty. Of these three, uncertainty has the longest-lasting effect because it cannot be resolved until the event either escalates or de-escalates. Markets do not price the e