🚨 RECESSION RISK SURGES AS GD

Pinkspider

04-30

🚨 RECESSION RISK SURGES AS GDP CONTRACTS

Kalshi now shows a 74% chance of a U.S. recession this year, spiking after this morning’s surprise GDP print:

🔸 Q1 GDP: -0.3% vs. +0.3% expected

🔸 Core PCE: +3.5%

🔸 Employment Costs: +0.9% (in line)

🔸 Consumer Spending: +1.8% annualized

Markets are reacting sharply — stocks are down and hitting session lows:

🔸 S&P 500 E-minis: -1.08%

🔸 Nasdaq 100 E-minis: -1.43

🔸 Dow E-minis: -0.80%

Fed Keeps Unchanged: Are 3 Rate Cut Estimates Too Optimistic?

After a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Is the market being too optimistic? As the broader market begins to pull back, what impact will this week’s FOMC meeting have?

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