If we have negative GDP again next quarter, we’ll technically be in a recession.

The Fed is in a very tough spot.

Inflation is still sticky in certain areas but growth and labor are stalling out. The Fed can’t cut too aggressively without risking another inflation spike and they can’t hold rates this high without pushing the economy further into contraction.

There are downsides to both cutting and holding rates here but in my opinion the Fed is behind the curve and needs to start easing. They shouldn’t wait for the economy to break before cutting

I don’t think a recession is inevitable but the warning signs are flashing.

It’s time for Powell to step in