Bond Market Seasonality

TopdownCharts
05-04

With the negative Q1 GDP print of last week and soft CPI reports, the prospect of a disinflationary recession is being raised.

One school of thought is tariffs will drive inflation higher, the other school of thought is that tariffs will drive costs higher and squeeze profit margins and discretionary incomes — and end up being deflationary to demand…

The possibility of a disinflationary recession would certainly be bond bullish — and as it so happens, we’re just getting into the part of the year which has historically been good for bonds (bonds have had a historical tendency for seasonal strength from May through to October).

So just as the seasons are turning bad for stocks, it may now be the season for bonds.

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