Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global asset allocation and economics. We primarily serve multi-asset investors and institutions.
$SPX Rally Faces Resistance While Semiconductors Hit Highs
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 12 April 2026 Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has rebounded to a key overhead resistance zone. Semiconductors $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ meanwhile are already out to new all-time highs. Tech stocks have seen a reset comparable to that of April 2025. The tech sector is driving overall profit margins to record highs. Tech stock valuations are still elevated (raising some questions). Overall, it’s been a textbook rally from oversold conditions. The next steps will be key as overhead resistance looms (with risk shadows lingering in the background vs tech strength stirring). 1. Technical Check bouncing from oversold condit
$S&P 500(.SPX)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$$Dow Jones(.DJI)$$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Investor Sentiment is down, Economic Sentiment is up. Markets appear to be following the Trump Weave. Oil Shock Analogs highlight the worst case. Tech sentiment is deeply oversold. Global equities are up from oversold +positive April seasonality. Overall, there seems to be a growing body of evidence for a rebound. 1. Sentiment Survey Composite the comb
Market Enters Maximum Risk Zone as Valuations Roll Over
Zooming out from the day-to-day developments, it’s useful to keep in mind the market cycle conceptual model. The reason we want to respect risk in this type of juncture is that the stockmarket is stumbling and rolling over from expensive levels — this is the zone of maximum risk. It’s entirely possible that we end up getting enough of a reset (in sentiment, valuations, positioning, and maybe even policy too) to engineer a short/sharp correction and resumption of the bull market… but given the background setup described and what we understand about market cycles, it would pay to be pragmatic about things (balancing the desire for maximum gains from participating in rebounds vs diversification and defense against the potential for further downside). For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA t
$SPX Sentiment Reset Signals Near-Term Bottom, But Downside Risk Remains
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ This week’s chart presents an unusual sentiment indicator which serves a specific purpose to a specific type of market participant. This composite indicator takes into account sentiment readings from surveys + market metrics: the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ (volatility/fear gauge) and the forward PE ratio (being ultimately a measure of investor confidence). The inputs are also smoothed so that it provides the most useful signal to longer-term active investors who are less fixated on the day-to-day news/noise. We’ve seen a significant reset in this indicator already. This says we are close to a major market bottom. However we still need to respect risk. The direction of travel (bearish
Global Macro Outlook: Policy Support Holds as Rotation and Risk Signals Build
Global policy remains supportive amid subdued inflation and a gradual economic recovery, but market signals are becoming more mixed. The US Stock/Bond Ratio is rolling over from stretched levels, pointing to rising caution, while relative opportunities are emerging outside U.S. large-cap growth. Investors are increasingly balancing supportive macro conditions against weakening technicals and shifting global leadership. Monetary Policy Pulse: given lack of underlying inflation pressures, steady but nascent global economic recovery; expect policy on hold globally (and to remain supportive for risk assets, growth). US Stock/Bond Ratio: the stock/bond ratio is rolling over from stretched levels (stretched valuations, positioning, and technicals), history suggests caution (but recession risk is
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has broken a key support, bears are in control. 2. Implied correlations + Leveraged ETF trading activity point to rising odds of a bounce. 3. Longer-term market cycle indicators highlight risk of bear market. 4. Markets may need to pivot focus from TACO to Fed Put. 5. Midterm malaise can produce magic (subsequent) returns. Overall, a common theme in this week’s session is one of “getting closer” (to a major market bottom) as short-term signals brush up against longer-term issues. A key conundrum is whether TACO is still a thing (what’s the quick fix?), or whether the market needs to pivot back to Fed Put… For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enj
S&P 500 at Make-or-Break Support as Oversold Signals Build
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 22 March 2026 This week: technical check, inversion question, drawdowns, global tech, margin debt, valuations and positioning, earnings revisions, global macro pulse, stock return distributions, emerging markets... Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Stocks are at a make-or-break point (major support level). Conditions are increasingly oversold. Sentiment and valuations have seen a partial reset. (albeit from an overvalued/excess-greed starting point) Pre-war, the global earnings/macro pulse was on a promising path. Overall, as noted, it’s a dangerous setup (clear technical deterioration from a starting point of overvaluation and excess-greed, with downside tail-risks for the global economy). But at the same time, if we’re going to get a reboun
Oversold Markets Signal Rebound Potential Despite Bearish Technical Backdrop
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Technically things look fairly bearish overall. 2. But recent history shows the tendency for rebounds (even during bear markets). 3. And conditions are currently looking notably oversold. 4. Yet there are some vulnerabilities being exposed in private markets. 5. There’s also still a few positive signs underneath all the pessimism. Overall, the high-level technical view looks pretty ugly. But we have a key opportunity for a rebound next week given oversold conditions, support levels, and a historical precedent for rebounds and rallies even if it turns into a more prolonged bearish episode… $S&P 500(.SPX)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has broken a key short-term support level. This is from a starting point of stretched sentiment/valuations. (Therefore risk of further downside is elevated.) Software stocks are bouncing from cheap and oversold conditions. Energy stocks are getting a geopolitical boost with room to run. Overall, the technical picture is enough to make one pause to think. With the various parallels to 2022 it certainly heightens the risk management senses. And yet there’s still some very interesting sector setups… 1. Here we go Again with multiple parallels to 2022 (geopolitical event, commodity price spike — set against a backdrop of expensive valuations, stretched sentiment), th