China AI Battle: Still Worth Boarding Tencent & Alibaba After Earnings?

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05-16
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In the first quarter, Chinese companies delivered an impressive performance, outpacing the broader U.S. market. $Alibaba(BABA)$ surged over 55% in a single quarter. According to the latest filings, Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in Chinese tech giants, with Alibaba (BABA) and $Baidu(BIDU)$ among its top picks. Following the increase, Bridgewater’s stake in Alibaba is now valued at approximately $750 million.

With $TENCENT(00700)$ and Alibaba releasing their latest earnings, Do these Chinese tech titans truly have a winning strategy in the AI race? And after the earnings results, is it still worth getting on board?

Tencent: AI Advertising Pushes Revenue Above Expectations, with a “Pragmatic” Strategy

Tencent reported Q1 revenue of RMB 180.02 billion, up 13% year-over-year, and non-IFRS operating profit of RMB 69.32 billion, up 18% YoY.

AI is already improving advertising efficiency. Supported by large language models (LLMs), Tencent’s ad platform has significantly improved in recommendation precision and delivery effectiveness. This enhancement boosts ROI for clients across sectors like e-commerce, gaming, and consumer goods.

Tencent also revealed its self-developed “Yuanbao” system, which can orchestrate more than 5 million WeChat mini-programs. It embodies the AI Agent framework: LLM + Tool + Memory, forming a uniquely embedded AI ecosystem.

Q1 CapEx reached RMB 23 billion, up 91% YoY, with full-year CapEx expected to exceed RMB 100 billion.

Tencent’s AI approach emphasizes enhancing existing revenue engines such as ads and games, rather than moonshot innovation — a strategy that appeals to investors looking for tangible short-to-mid-term monetization.

Is it similar to $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$’s strategy?

Alibaba: Shifting to “AI Infrastructure,” Betting Big on Cloud + Foundation Models

Alibaba’s Q4 revenue came in at RMB 236.45 billion, slightly below market expectations of RMB 237 billion. However, net profit soared 279% YoY to RMB 12.382 billion, driven by cost reduction and gains in asset valuations.

Alibaba previously announced over RMB 380 billion (approx. $53 billion) in capital expenditure, marking one of the largest private investments in AI and cloud infrastructure in China. The company is moving away from C-end (consumer-facing) metrics like GMV, and instead focusing on a long-term layout across Alibaba Cloud, foundation models (like Tongyi Qianwen), and custom AI chips.

According to Goldman Sachs, 80% of that budget will go toward AI servers, with the remainder focused on general-purpose servers, data centers, and other infrastructure.

While local services and advertising remain in a downturn, the +18% YoY growth in cloud intelligence and the continuous evolution of Tongyi signal that Alibaba is aiming to become a hybrid of AWS and OpenAI in China.

Questions to Consider:

Can Tencent’s “pragmatic AI” strategy of enhancing existing revenue lines outperform Alibaba’s heavy AI infrastructure bets in the next 2–3 years?

Is the market underestimating Alibaba’s long-term transformation into a tech infrastructure giant?

With heavy CapEx commitments from both companies, which stock better balances AI ambition and financial discipline?

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Apple and Alibaba’s AI Deal Under Fire: Will Alibaba Pay the Price?
Over the past few months, U.S. White House and congressional officials have been reviewing Apple’s AI partnership with Alibaba, as Apple plans to bring its Apple Intelligence to China, with Alibaba being one of its key partners. ------------------ Will this scrutiny hinder the launch of Apple AI in China? If so, will iPhone sales in China continue to struggle this year? And could Alibaba’s stock drop to $110 as a result?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • icycrystal
    05-16
    icycrystal
    @koolgal @Shyon @rL @HelenJanet @Aqa @SPACE ROCKET @GoodLife99 @LMSunshine @Universe宇宙

    anything is possible. however, need to be careful as bubble may "burst" at some point.

    first quarter, Chinese companies delivered an impressive performance, outpacing the broader U.S. market. $Alibaba(BABA)$ surged over 55% in a single quarter. According to the latest filings, Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in Chinese tech giants, with Alibaba (BABA) and $Baidu(BIDU)$ among its top picks.

    Can Tencent’s “pragmatic AI” strategy of enhancing existing revenue lines outperform Alibaba’s heavy AI infrastructure bets in the next 2–3 years?

    Is the market underestimating Alibaba’s long-term transformation into a tech infrastructure giant?

    With heavy CapEx commitments from both companies, which stock better balances AI ambition and financial discipline?

    leave your comments to win tiger coins~

  • Shyon
    05-16
    Shyon
    I believe Tencent’s “pragmatic AI” strategy offers strong near-term value. By enhancing ads and gaming—its core revenue streams—Tencent is showing real AI monetization without major disruption. The Yuanbao system, tied to WeChat’s vast mini-program network, mirrors Meta’s approach: using AI to optimize what already works, with measurable ROI.

    That said, I think the market may be overlooking Alibaba’s transformation. Despite a slight revenue miss, its profit surged & the massive investment into AI infrastructure shows a clear pivot toward becoming China’s AWS + OpenAI. Shifting focus from GMV to cloud & foundation models like Tongyi could pay off big if adoption grows.

    While Tencent balances ambition & discipline better today, Alibaba’s aggressive push could yield greater long-term rewards. For me, Tencent $TENCENT(00700)$ offers short-term clarity, but I lean toward Alibaba $Alibaba(09988)$ if I’m thinking 3+ years ahead & can stomach higher risk.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars

  • icycrystal
    05-16
    icycrystal
    it's happening again...

    did tiger "eat" my tags and comment? [OMG] [OMG] [OMG] [Gosh] [Gosh] [Gosh] [Anger] [Anger] [Anger] [Spurting] [Spurting] [Spurting]

    • Shyon
      Oh no, maybe it will only appear at the end of the day, sometimes delay by a lot
  • 1PC
    05-16
    1PC
    I believe the long term growth 📈 for AI is here to stay 🙂. It's Going to be an Evolution 🧬 to our way of living. Both Tencent and Baba are the leaders in this field, I will still invest and Trade on Tencent & Baba 😌 Looking forward for their future strong growth 💹📈  @Jes86188 @JC888 @yourcelesttyy @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Barcode @Aqa
  • MHh
    05-16
    MHh
    I do think that tencent’s strategy looks similar to meta which customised advertisement. However, a good amount of its profit also comes from games and how it can enhance revenue there too. In the short term of 2-3 years, I think this would pay off and revenue should continue to look good. It also has its cloud though not as mature as alibaba’s. This is where it will differ from Alibaba in the longer term of maybe 5 years and beyond. In the short term, as Alibaba invests in infrastructure to get a lead to become the market’s leader in AWS and OpenAI, this would take time to pay off. The demand from the Chinese market is strong and the masses are sufficient to drive it. I expect to see returns in 2-3 years and exponential returns in the next 5 years if it can become the market leader in China. It all depends on one’s investment horizon. Under 3 years, I think tencent is a safer bet. 5 years and beyond, Alibaba might be the one with outsized returns.
  • Aqa
    05-16
    Aqa
    $TENCENT(00700)$ and $Alibaba(BABA)$ both looks so attractive with their recent performance and future prospects. Do invest with care as the market is very volatile now. Please do die diligence before each trade. Thanks @Tiger_comments
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