Reward 500 Tiger-coinsThe US stock market is hovering near all-time highs. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ recently surpassed 6,000, yet its year-to-date gains are almost flat.
Hedge Funds Ramp Up Buying, Sentiment Improves
Goldman Sachs data shows hedge funds have been net buyers of US stocks for five consecutive weeks, with long positions significantly outpacing shorts. This signals a shift from defensive to aggressive positioning among institutional investors.
Meanwhile, VIX has fallen below 17—its lowest since February. Capital is returning with a "risk-on" appetite.
Trump Risks: Buy on Divergence?
Political volatility driven by Trump has dominated markets for months. From battles over the "Grand and Beautiful Act," threats to the EU and Apple, the high-profile Trump-Musk feud24, to US-China talks and U.K.-US negotiations, markets have struggled to form a consensus trend.
Although the US and China reached a provisional agreement in Geneva on May 12, easing short-term trade tensions9, upward momentum stalled near pre-Trump election highs.
With the S&P 500’s NTM P/E at elevated levels, some argue that markets rarely move when consensus is unanimous (no sellers left). Instead, divergence creates trading opportunities.
What to focus on? CPI, Debt ceiling, and structural risks
Trade negotiations are recognized as a prolonged game—good news today may reverse tomorrow. Thus, the focus should shift to inflation and US debt.
1. Resurgent Inflation → Fewer Rate Cuts?
May CPI (released tomorrow) is expected to rise to 2.5% YoY, up from April’s 2.3%.
Deutsche Bank predicts the Fed will delay cuts until December 2025, with just one cut expected this year. However, Trump is pressuring Powell to cut rates "by a full point".
2. Debt Ceiling Crisis Could Drain Liquidity
The US Treasury faces "X-date" pressure in July-August. If a deal is reached, Treasury issuance could repeat the 2023 "liquidity drain," pressuring bank reserves and potentially triggering a market pullback.
3. Ray Dalio’s Collapse Warning
Dalio recently reiterated his theory of a "triple collapse of the world order"—simultaneous ruptures in currency, domestic politics, and geopolitics. Trump’s immigration crackdown, US polarization, and global tensions align with this warning, elevating "black swan" risks.
What's your view: buy on divergence or sell high?
The S&P 500 is just steps away from its all-time high. Can June deliver a breakout?
Will you follow the hedge funds buying?
REWARDS
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我个人的判断是——六月确实有机会迎来突破，但操作上不盲目追高，更倾向于顺势低吸，留出一手防守空间。
为什么我不看空？
首先，从资金面来看，不少对冲基金悄悄回补科技与消费股仓位，最近几周美股ETF的资金净流入也非常明显，这说明市场里真正的“聪明钱”并没有选择高位离场，反而在积极布局潜在突破行情。
再看技术面，标普500在5900~6000之间横盘整理了好一段时间，量价配合健康，短期均线不断上移。如果这波能够带量突破6100，基本可以确立新一轮上涨趋势。别忘了，很多机构早就设下“Q3初拉高出货”的策略，现在正是他们放出利好、推升指数的关键时点。
那是否意味着可以闭眼跟多？我觉得未必。
核心变量还在于CPI和利率预期。
六月中旬的CPI数据至关重要，如果通胀降温幅度超预期，市场会进一步押注美联储9月降息，那这个行情还有得冲。但若CPI不如市场所愿，美债收益率抬头，科技股就可能出现回调，到时冲高回落的风险就不小。
回到开头的问题，我会怎么做？
我倾向于“买在分歧中，但不追高”。也就是说，如果市场在6030~6050区域震荡，我会利用震荡低点逐步建仓，重点关注Q2财报强劲的板块，比如AI基础设施、软件和高端制造类公司。但如果直接突破6100，我不会在第一时间追进去，而是等回踩确认后再考虑加仓。
总结一下：六月确实有望迎来突破，但节奏上要更有耐心。不盲目听从“买高卖更高”的口号，也不轻易跟风“顶部已现”。行情属于坚定的少数派，懂得等待的人，才能笑到最后。