My Investing Muse (23Jun25)
Layoffs & Closure news
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Government jobs are falling: 22,000 federal government jobs were lost in May, the most in at least 4 years. This marks the 4th consecutive monthly decline. Year-to-date, federal government jobs have declined by 59,000, to 2.96 million, the lowest since November 2024. By comparison, the 2015-2019 average was ~2.80 million. According to Reuters estimates, over 260,000 federal workers have been fired, taken buyouts, or retired early this year. The federal workforce is shrinking. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
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US job numbers have been revised down by a massive 219,000 so far in 2025. April -30,000 March -108,000 February -49,000 January -32,000 22 out of the last 28 months have been revised down since the beginning of 2023. - X user Global Markets Investor
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Microsoft Plans to Cut Thousands More Employees Company’s layoffs are expected around the start of July and will target sales, other departments - WSJ
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Layoff wave hits freight sector as nearly 9,000 jobs are slashed. Job cuts hit workers in trucking, warehousing, food suppliers, and manufacturing - Freightwaves
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Intel will outsource marketing to Accenture and AI, laying off many of its workers - Oregon Live
The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.
The US attacked Iran
Here are some news snippets about the US’s attack on Iran.
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The New York Times says the US has now officially entered a war with Iran.
A president can be impeached for ordering a military strike without congressional approval, as it may violate Congress's war powers under Article I, Section 8, and the War Powers Resolution of 1973, which requires congressional notification and authorization. Such an action could be deemed a "high crime or misdemeanor" if Congress views it as an abuse of power. However, historical precedents like Reagan's 1986 Libya strikes show presidents acting unilaterally without impeachment. The 2025 Iran strike sparked debate, but political will, especially with GOP support, makes impeachment unlikely. It’s possible but hinges on Congress's interpretation and political dynamics. - Grok
My final thoughts
Is this the start of World War 3 (WW3) or the avoidance of one? What kind of retaliation could be expected? What dangers are America exposed to? Or will this lead to the downfall of the Iranian regime?
Iran has threatened to block the Straits of Hormuz, and there would be some supply chain disruptions coming. Vessels would have to sail past the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa) instead of the Red Sea, incurring longer lead time and costs. Logistics costs could surge, and we can expect inflationary pressures to follow.
Where are we now?
Where do you think that we are right now? Personally, it is not about where we are. Can we consider having a portfolio that is capable of profiting from both bull and bear runs?
War brings uncertainty, and uncertainty gives inflationary pressures.
The US money printing machine has started to work again. This is likely to lead subsequent devaluation of the US dollar.
Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.
Let us do our due diligence before we take up any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.
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