Exactly 4 months ago, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ went below 20SMA and crashed 22% due to Trump tariffs.
4 hours ago, US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities escalating war with Israel. SPY will break 20SMA again.
Here's what to focus on if WWIII breaks out next week 🧵
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Firstly, institutions said with right triggers like global nuclear war between US and the Middle East, SPY would easily RETEST the $480 lows again.
We think this is highly unlikely and this war will be short but volatile for a few weeks more.
4 key areas right now on SPY we must pay attention to:
1. 20SMA at $594
2. 200SMA at $580
3. JPM collar (short call at 5905) so $590
4. Gap between $567-$580 (could be filled if) these levels are broken.
SPY will have a hard time breaking below $590 becuase Iran and Israel should end things quickly especially if Russia and China don't enter it.
If $590 breaks then 200SMA at $580 is the maximum bottom for us in June 2025.
Our favorite LONG position to take is for to take SPY calls for Feb 2026 $600-$620 as soon as SPY drops between under $590 towards $580.
For small accounts less then $1000 you can do July 5 $600 calls this week if we break under $590
Its going to be highly unlikely for SPY to drop towards $510 and below $580 in this scenario especially when FEDS are to cut rates in September, inflation is under control and the labour market is still relatively strong.
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The bull market should continue through to end of year with target $675+ So these dips below $600 are opportunities to go long $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
Focus on getting more time on options with the lowest strike possible with calls for a swing!
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