📅 September Effect: Trap or Buy Point?

August ended without the deep correction many expected, but enthusiasm cooled after a choppy earnings season. Now all eyes turn to September — historically a volatile month for equities.

🔎 Macro Drivers to Watch

Fed Rate Path: Powell's dovish tilt keeps September rate-cut odds high. If delivered, tech and growth should catch a bid.

Seasonality: September is historically one of the weakest months, with volatility spikes around Fed meetings and CPI releases.

Elections & Politics: Fed independence headlines and fiscal policy debates could create intraday swings.

📊 Market Outlook (Near-Term)

S&P 500 (SPX ~6,460): Holding 6,350 support keeps trend intact. A Fed cut could push SPX toward 6,600; breakdown risks to 6,200.

NASDAQ (IXIC ~21,455): Tech remains rate-sensitive. Reclaiming 21,800 opens room for 22,200; losing 21,000 risks a slide to 20,500.

NVIDIA (NVDA ~$173.7): After earnings reset expectations, NVDA consolidates. Above $180 targets $190–195; below $168 risks $160 retest.

September Effect – Traffic Light Levels

SPX 🟡 ~6,460 → 🟢 Support 6,350 | 🔴 Resistance 6,600

NASDAQ 🟡 ~21,455 → 🟢 Support 21,000 | 🔴 Resistance 22,200

NVDA 🟡 ~$174 → 🟢 Support 168 | 🔴 Resistance 195

✅ Takeaway

September could be a buy-on-dip month if Fed dovishness holds and earnings momentum stabilizes. But with seasonality against us, traders should respect support levels and stay tactical.

I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!

SeptemBEAR is here: Are Your Portfolio Ready for Volatility?

In September, the VIX may fly as we may see September Effect hit again. ------- 1. Is the market in danger with September effect approaching? 2. What's your strategy to cope with risks?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

skythelimit
09-01
skythelimit
Great insights

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Is the market in danger with September effect approaching?\n2. What's your strategy to cope with risks?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee35d02b8cacdda7a7168f1b0dd417c1"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23e626473f65cb2111458fe1a113baa1","width":"1080","height":"366"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23e626473f65cb2111458fe1a113baa1","width":"1080","height":"366"}],"title":"\n📅 September Effect: Trap or Buy Point?","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>August ended without the deep correction many expected, but enthusiasm cooled after a choppy earnings season. Now all eyes turn to September — historically a volatile month for equities.</p>\n<p>🔎 Macro Drivers to Watch</p>\n<p>Fed Rate Path: Powell's dovish tilt keeps September rate-cut odds high. If delivered, tech and growth should catch a bid.</p>\n<p>Seasonality: September is historically one of the weakest months, with volatility spikes around Fed meetings and CPI releases.</p>\n<p>Elections &amp; Politics: Fed independence headlines and fiscal policy debates could create intraday swings.</p>\n<p>📊 Market Outlook (Near-Term)</p>\n<p>S&amp;P 500 (SPX ~6,460): Holding 6,350 support keeps trend intact. A Fed cut could push SPX toward 6,600; breakdown risks to 6,200.</p>\n<p>NASDAQ (IXIC ~21,455): Tech remains rate-sensitive. Reclaiming 21,800 opens room for 22,200; losing 21,000 risks a slide to 20,500.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA (NVDA ~$173.7): After earnings reset expectations, NVDA consolidates. Above $180 targets $190–195; below $168 risks $160 retest.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\" style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center;\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23e626473f65cb2111458fe1a113baa1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\"><span></span></p>\n<p>September Effect – Traffic Light Levels</p>\n<p>SPX 🟡 ~6,460 → 🟢 Support 6,350 | 🔴 Resistance 6,600</p>\n<p>NASDAQ 🟡 ~21,455 → 🟢 Support 21,000 | 🔴 Resistance 22,200</p>\n<p>NVDA 🟡 ~$174 → 🟢 Support 168 | 🔴 Resistance 195</p>\n<p>✅ Takeaway</p>\n<p>September could be a buy-on-dip month if Fed dovishness holds and earnings momentum stabilizes. But with seasonality against us, traders should respect support levels and stay tactical.</p>\n<p>I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>August ended without the deep correction many expected, but enthusiasm cooled after a choppy earnings season. Now all eyes turn to September — historically a volatile month for equities.</p>\n<p>🔎 Macro Drivers to Watch</p>\n<p>Fed Rate Path: Powell's dovish tilt keeps September rate-cut odds high. If delivered, tech and growth should catch a bid.</p>\n<p>Seasonality: September is historically one of the weakest months, with volatility spikes around Fed meetings and CPI releases.</p>\n<p>Elections &amp; Politics: Fed independence headlines and fiscal policy debates could create intraday swings.</p>\n<p>📊 Market Outlook (Near-Term)</p>\n<p>S&amp;P 500 (SPX ~6,460): Holding 6,350 support keeps trend intact. A Fed cut could push SPX toward 6,600; breakdown risks to 6,200.</p>\n<p>NASDAQ (IXIC ~21,455): Tech remains rate-sensitive. Reclaiming 21,800 opens room for 22,200; losing 21,000 risks a slide to 20,500.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA (NVDA ~$173.7): After earnings reset expectations, NVDA consolidates. Above $180 targets $190–195; below $168 risks $160 retest.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\" style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center;\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/23e626473f65cb2111458fe1a113baa1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\"><span></span></p>\n<p>September Effect – Traffic Light Levels</p>\n<p>SPX 🟡 ~6,460 → 🟢 Support 6,350 | 🔴 Resistance 6,600</p>\n<p>NASDAQ 🟡 ~21,455 → 🟢 Support 21,000 | 🔴 Resistance 22,200</p>\n<p>NVDA 🟡 ~$174 → 🟢 Support 168 | 🔴 Resistance 195</p>\n<p>✅ Takeaway</p>\n<p>September could be a buy-on-dip month if Fed dovishness holds and earnings momentum stabilizes. But with seasonality against us, traders should respect support levels and stay tactical.</p>\n<p>I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!</p></body></html>","text":"August ended without the deep correction many expected, but enthusiasm cooled after a choppy earnings season. Now all eyes turn to September — historically a volatile month for equities. 🔎 Macro Drivers to Watch Fed Rate Path: Powell's dovish tilt keeps September rate-cut odds high. If delivered, tech and growth should catch a bid. Seasonality: September is historically one of the weakest months, with volatility spikes around Fed meetings and CPI releases. Elections & Politics: Fed independence headlines and fiscal policy debates could create intraday swings. 📊 Market Outlook (Near-Term) S&P 500 (SPX ~6,460): Holding 6,350 support keeps trend intact. A Fed cut could push SPX toward 6,600; breakdown risks to 6,200. NASDAQ (IXIC ~21,455): Tech remains rate-sensitive. Reclaiming 21,800 opens room for 22,200; losing 21,000 risks a slide to 20,500. NVIDIA (NVDA ~$173.7): After earnings reset expectations, NVDA consolidates. Above $180 targets $190–195; below $168 risks $160 retest. September Effect – Traffic Light Levels SPX 🟡 ~6,460 → 🟢 Support 6,350 | 🔴 Resistance 6,600 NASDAQ 🟡 ~21,455 → 🟢 Support 21,000 | 🔴 Resistance 22,200 NVDA 🟡 ~$174 → 🟢 Support 168 | 🔴 Resistance 195 ✅ Takeaway September could be a buy-on-dip month if Fed dovishness holds and earnings momentum stabilizes. But with seasonality against us, traders should respect support levels and stay tactical. I'm not a financial advisor. 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