The Santa Claus window is statistically favourable, but tactically it still requires discipline.

How to plan the week:

Positioning over prediction: Liquidity is thinning, so price moves can be exaggerated. I would favour smaller sizing, tighter risk control, and trades aligned with existing trends rather than fresh thematic bets.

Leadership matters: Watch whether market leadership broadens beyond a few mega-cap names. A healthy Santa rally typically shows participation from cyclicals and selected defensives, not just headline tech.

Macro silence is a feature: With limited data and policy signals, sentiment and flows dominate. That tends to reward momentum, but punishes late, leveraged entries.

Bullish on the Santa rally?

Cautiously, yes. Seasonality, window dressing, and reduced selling pressure support a mild upside bias. However, this looks more like a grind higher than a sharp breakout. Any rally that holds gains into early January would be more meaningful than a fast spike that fades on low volume.

Practical stance:

Long exposure, but not aggressive.

Willing to add only on shallow pullbacks, not gap-ups.

Prepared to take partial profits quickly if moves become crowded.

In short, respect the seasonality, but trade the tape. A restrained Santa rally is still a rally.