From my perspective, the strong January start in 2026 is an encouraging signal, but not a guarantee. The "January effect" works more as a sentiment and momentum indicator than a forecasting tool. A positive January usually tells me risk appetite is alive and liquidity conditions are supportive, yet the real determinant for the rest of the year will still be earnings delivery and macro stability, not seasonality alone.

For U.S. equities, I don't automatically assume another straight-line double-digit rally. Valuations are no longer cheap, especially for mega-cap tech, and the market has already priced in a lot of optimism around AI, rate cuts, and soft-landing narratives. I think the U.S. can still post positive returns in 2026, but the path is likely to be more volatile and more selective than the broad-based gains we've seen before.

At the same time, I'm more open than before to the idea that U.S. equities could lag certain global markets on a relative basis. Markets like Japan, India, and parts of Europe still benefit from valuation catch-up, policy support, and structural reforms. That doesn't mean I'm bearish on the U.S., but it does mean global diversification matters more in 2026 than it did during the one-way U.S. tech trade.

On AI leadership, I see a gradual rotation rather than a clean switch. Memory and infrastructure stocks are enjoying a very real earnings-driven cycle as AI compute demand explodes, and that story still has legs. However, these names are also more cyclical by nature, so I expect sharper swings once supply responses kick in or pricing power normalizes.

For SaaS and AI application companies, I think 2026 will be about proving monetization. The market is no longer rewarding "AI exposure" by default; it wants clear revenue uplift, margin expansion, and customer stickiness. In my own positioning, I prefer a barbell approach—owning AI infrastructure leaders for cash-flow visibility, while selectively adding SaaS names that can genuinely turn AI into sustainable profits.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.  

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