Lanceljx
05-11

I would lean toward staying invested, but trimming selectively rather than going “all in” after six consecutive weekly gains.


The structural AI thesis still looks intact:


Hyperscaler AI capex remains enormous and multi-year in nature.


Memory/HBM, networking, power, cooling and semiconductor supply chains are still capacity constrained.


Earnings revisions for major AI beneficiaries are still trending upward rather than downward.



That said, valuations are undeniably stretched. Historically, when the NASDAQ-100 enters upper percentile valuation zones after a rapid melt-up, markets become highly sensitive to:


earnings misses,


weaker forward guidance,


capex ROI doubts,


or macro surprises from rates/inflation.



Next week matters because:


Alibaba Group and Tencent test whether China AI/cloud demand is genuinely re-accelerating.


Cisco Systems is a direct read-through on enterprise AI infrastructure spending and networking demand.



My approach here:


Keep core long-term winners.


Trim weaker momentum names that already priced in perfection.


Raise some cash gradually instead of trying to time an exact top.


Rotate part of gains into laggards, defensives, or short-duration fixed income if liquidity is needed.



The biggest mistake in strong AI bull markets is exiting too early. The biggest risk near euphoric highs is believing pullbacks can no longer happen. The middle ground is usually the more durable strategy.

S&P and Nasdaq Keep Hitting New Highs: Time to Watch Out for Risks?
In the previous trading session, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reached intraday and closing all-time highs. Despite ongoing Middle East conflicts and oil prices remaining elevated — fueling investors’ inflation concerns — U.S. equities continued to climb. Looking ahead, investor Peter Mallouk believes chip stocks still have room to run. The current bull market is being supported by a handful of strong performers. Some warn that risks are rising, while others argue crowded trades could keep pushing higher. What’s your take?
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