Reward 500 Tiger-coinsUS stocks pulled back from record highs, and $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ hit a new low, falling below $62,000 — its lowest level since February 6. Strategy sold off a massive holding of roughly $2.5 million in Bitcoin. "Bitcoin's price fell this week because Strategy broke its 'never sell' promise."
At almost the same moment, Goldman Sachs raised a whole batch of price targets — S&P at 8000 by year-end, Asian markets revised up across the board. The research reports were unanimously bullish, yet the market took a breather first.
What gives Goldman the confidence to be this bullish?
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ at 8000 by year-end (about +6% from now), riding on earnings resilience with expected EPS growth of 24%
2026 is a big IPO year: US IPO fundraising is projected to hit a record $225 billion, far above the previous high of about $115 billion in 2021. But demand outweighs supply — corporate buybacks alone total $1.3 trillion, overwhelming the $1.1 trillion of issuance + lockup-expiry supply (though Goldman warns that supply-demand will tighten in 2027)
Asia revised up across the board: 12-month KOSPI target lifted from 9000 to 12000, Japan's TOPIX seen at 4400, Europe's STOXX 600 at 660, on the rationale that "there are no signs the AI investment boom is cooling"
The cracks are in consumption and employment
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US consumers: healthy in Q1, but the outlook is weak. Real income growth is down to just 0.9% (2026 Q4/Q4), consumption growth has fallen to 1.3%, below consensus — for now cash flow is still propped up by excess tax refunds, which will fade by Q4
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Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the week's watershed: Goldman estimates May nonfarm additions of only 60,000, below consensus, unemployment rate at 4.3%, heading toward 4.6% by year-end
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The AI paradox: in May, US corporate AI adoption fell rather than rose (-0.3 percentage points to 19.5%), yet layoffs attributed to AI are accelerating — the money's been spent, but the returns aren't showing yet
The Iran war is the sword hanging over oil prices
The ceasefire is fragile, oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is extremely low, Brent seen at $100 in Q2. If a supply disruption drags on, shortages of non-energy goods could drag GDP down by more than 0.5% — Goldman has already cut its 2026 global GDP forecast to 2.4%. High oil prices in turn push inflation — US core PCE faces upside risk to 2.8% by year-end. Over the same period Goldman sharply raised its copper target (year-end $13,735/ton), and lifted its gold target all the way to $5,308 in Q4. The money for hedging risk and inflation is already moving.
The biggest contrast: the Fed may stand pat, while the ECB is set to hike
The Fed: Goldman expects at most two more 25bp cuts before year-end (December + next March) to a terminal rate of 3–3.25%, but bluntly says "the odds of standing pat indefinitely are not low." The ECB goes the opposite way: 25bp hikes in June and September to a peak of 2.5%. One side may stop, the other is still hiking — the scales of global capital are re-tilting.
Does Bitcoin's new low mean liquidity is tightening?
With Friday's nonfarm estimate at just 60,000 and consumption cooling, will rate-cut expectations change?
The Iran war and oil prices — an underestimated black swan, or already priced in?
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Comments
If Friday's nonfarm payrolls come in near 60k, rate-cut expectations could strengthen as growth concerns rise. However, higher oil prices complicate the picture by keeping inflation risks alive. The Fed may find it harder to cut aggressively if energy-driven inflation reaccelerates.
As for Iran and oil, I think the market is pricing in a limited conflict, not a major supply disruption. That's why equities remain relatively resilient. The real black swan would be a prolonged escalation that pushes oil above US$100 and keeps it there.
My base case: this is a growth scare, not a liquidity crisis. The bigger risk is a "higher inflation, slower growth" environment, which tends to be challenging for both Bitcoin and high-multiple growth stocks.
2026 is a big IPO year: US IPO fundraising is projected to hit a record $225 billion, far above the previous high of about $115 billion in 2021. But demand outweighs supply — corporate buybacks alone total $1.3 trillion, overwhelming the $1.1 trillion of issuance + lockup-expiry supply (though Goldman warns that supply-demand will tighten in 2027)