Lanceljx
08-14 11:15

I would pick SanDisk > Western Digital > SNXX.


SanDisk has the strongest fundamental catalyst. Its FY28–30 model calls for mid-to-high-teens annual revenue growth and ~50% adjusted FCF margins, while multi-year customer agreements are expected to cover roughly two-thirds of FY28 bits. That could make NAND earnings structurally less cyclical than before.


WDC is attractive as a secondary beneficiary, but its HDD exposure makes it a less direct play on SanDisk's NAND thesis.


I would avoid chasing SNXX after +27%. A 2x leveraged product magnifies the upside, but also the inevitable memory-sector corrections. SanDisk itself has already risen more than sixfold this year, so valuation and expectations are substantial.


My choice: SNDK, preferably on a pullback. The Investor Day strengthens the long-term thesis, but it does not eliminate memory cyclicality.

SanDisk Investor Day Blueprint Sparks 13.7% Surge — Can Memory Accelerate Further?
SanDisk +13.67% Thursday, up ~17% at the high, after its first Investor Day since the Western Digital spin-off. Management's FY28–30 targets: revenue growth of 15–19% a year, adjusted FCF margin held at 50%, and 100% of excess cash returned. The chain followed — Western Digital +7.31%, the 2x product SNXX +27.28%. The catch: last quarter's beat and $14bn buyback still bought two down sessions on soft guidance, and Burry has added memory shorts. SanDisk, Western Digital, or the leveraged ETF?
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Comments

  • MyrnaNorth
    08-14 13:02
    MyrnaNorth
    SNDK up 6x already and somehow SNXX is the crowded one? Pullback makes sense, but memory names are the first to get smacked when that mid-teens story slips
  • MamieBenson
    08-14 13:02
    MamieBenson
    I swapped WDC for SNDK too, but 50% FCF margins still feel a bit rich. NAND pricing never stays calm for long
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