Lanceljx
08-17

I would stay invested in AI and semiconductors, but avoid aggressively adding at these levels. The macro backdrop has improved, but the market has already priced in a lot of good news.


The S&P 500 is coming off another record close, while July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first decline in nine months. Combined with benign CPI/PPI and weaker employment, this strengthens the case for a September Fed hold. 


My preference would be:


1. Keep AI/semis: The secular earnings story remains strong, although valuations and expectations are high. Applied Materials' 5% drop despite good guidance is a reminder that even strong AI-related results can disappoint when expectations are extreme. 



2. Gradually rotate into financials/consumer: Not a wholesale switch, but these sectors offer diversification if the economy achieves a soft landing.



3. Wait for the FOMC minutes before making a major move: The three dissenting members favouring a hike make the minutes particularly important. The market wants to know whether that hawkish minority is isolated or indicative of broader concern about inflation. 




So, hold core AI/semiconductor positions, selectively add elsewhere, and keep some cash available. I would rather buy a pullback than chase the S&P 500 immediately after another record. The current setup is bullish, but increasingly dependent on the Fed remaining supportive and earnings continuing to justify elevated valuations.

Treasury Doubles Buyback Size — So Why Is the Bond Market Still Unimpressed?
Bessent doubled the per-operation buyback cap from $2bn to at least $4bn, with room to go further, and the 30-year briefly fell almost 10bp. It didn't hold: traders went back to what buybacks can't fix — deficits, inflation, term premium. The S&P 500 −0.87%, the Dow about 600 points lower. Next week's Jackson Hole, Warsh's debut as Chair, is now the pricing event for rates, the dollar and everything rate-sensitive. Stay long tech, rotate into rate-sensitive assets, or wait for Warsh's tone?
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Comments

  • blinky
    08-17
    blinky
    I’m not cutting semis here, AMAT down 5% after that guide is exactly why I’d rather sit tight than overthink valuation
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