LanlanCC
08-31

The market is telling you: the short term risk of raising interest rates on reprice but not buying on the long term – investors believe that Wash will eventually bring inflation down and are reluctant to push up term premiums. This yield curve flattening signal is one of the most alarming macro cracks in the second half of 2026.

A Dove Breaks Fed Hawk Chorus — Can S&P's Best Day in a Month Survive Tonight's Jobs Report?
Waller broke weeks of hawkish pressure: he backs holding rates while progress toward 2% continues. Hike odds this month fell 70% to 50%, the 10-year 4.81% to 4.74%. S&P +1.06%, Dow +614 points, best day in a month: Microsoft +2.68%, Meta +3.01%. Ease the pressure and the priciest assets bounce first. But this dove is on loan: the range is still 3.50–3.75%, three members backed a hike in July, and September 16 is live. Tonight's payrolls decide: consensus +56,000 after July's −23,000, and hourly earnings at +3.0% is what matters. Call peak rates before the data, or trust only the hold?
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Comments

  • quixy
    08-31
    quixy
    Long end staying anchored is exactly the bull case for bonds, not some siren. If inflation credibility holds, term premium refusing to lift is the window
  • fluffzo
    08-31
    fluffzo
    Way too late for this to be framed as a second half crack. The curve already flashed warning signs back in 2024 and people still waved it off lol
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