For my view: No — Tuesday’s Senate setback is not the whole story.
The failed CLARITY Act vote is still the main short-term problem because it creates regulatory uncertainty for Circle. The Senate vote was 49–50, below the 60 votes needed.
But CRCL has other important factors:
Arc launched successfully with 100+ institutional/ecosystem builders.
Higher interest rates can support Circle’s reserve income.
USDC continues to grow, with $73.3B in circulation at Q2-end.
However, the market still needs to see real revenue and profit from Arc.
Bottom line: CRCL is facing a mix of regulatory risk + valuation risk + execution risk. Arc is promising, but it needs to prove it can become a profitable business.
Fed Minutes Signal Another Hike, Yet Long-End Yields Hit New Highs First?
Stocks fell Wednesday: Dow -0.66% to 51,179.87, S&P 500 -0.22% to 7,801.77, Nasdaq -0.22% to 27,538.69, QQQ -0.25% to $757.73. The 10-year hit 5.366%, 30-year 5.728%, both highest since 2002. Minutes showed all 19 policymakers backed the 25bp hike, split on whether it was precautionary or a turn tighter; most expect one more this year, no meeting named. Bulls say nothing was more hawkish than priced; bears say fiscal pressure and Treasury supply are unresolved and term premium is lifting the long end, so even if the Fed stops, valuations stay weighted. Long end still up if the Fed stands pat?
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