Yields continue to climb, Bond prices continue to drop, whats happening next?

PawsAndProfits
09-26

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌

With yields continue to climb, no ease in political tensions between US and the rest of world, the consistant high prices of oil and diesel, the market seem to be resilent and still holding strong. Let’s see how long this bottleneck can hold before it breaks. We are heading into the “traditional” bear market period of the year. And with two more Fed announcements coming up, who knows which direction this market is going to swing?

@PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]

Two Rounds of Treasury Buybacks, and Long-End Yields Still Hit a New High?
The Treasury bought 20- to 30-year debt again Wednesday, capped at $6B — second round in two weeks; the first filled only $5.2B. The bid came, yields didn't fall: the 10-year closed at 5.11%, up 15bp and the highest since 2007, as was the 30-year. October Fed hike odds hit 69.7%. Stocks fell: Nasdaq -1.13% to 26,936.04, erasing Tuesday's record; QQQ -0.84% to $741.21; S&P 500 -0.75% to 7,706.03; Dow -0.68% to 51,511.59. Bulls say firm data, not weak demand, is lifting yields; bears say two buybacks and a new high prove the bid can't absorb supply. At what yield do you redo the math on stocks?
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Comments

  • MyrnaNorth
    09-26
    MyrnaNorth
    The 2y10y spread matters more here than the headline yield move. If that keeps re-steepening on the long end, risk assets probably stop looking so chill
  • happyli
    09-26
    happyli
    Oil is only half the story. If Red Sea shipping gets worse, sticky inflation can push yields even higher and long bonds still look exposed
    • PawsAndProfits: 
      Yes agreed. With Trump rejecting the latest proposal from Iran on Sat, I do not see any near resolution for this conflict.
  • CHINNY168
    09-29 07:51
    CHINNY168

    Great article, would you like to share it?

  • CHINNY168
    09-27
    CHINNY168

    Great article, would you like to share it?

  • Blitzzzz
    09-27
    Blitzzzz

    Great article, would you like to share it?

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