Lanceljx
10-07 10:34

Iā€™m not chasing the S&P 500 above 7,800. šŸ“ˆ


Record highs alone are not a reason to sell, but valuations and market concentration make Q3 earnings especially important. I want to see whether earnings growth and guidance can justify the latest repricing, particularly across AI, memory, optical communications and power infrastructure.


The easing 10-year Treasury yield is supportive, but if yields reverse higher or mega-cap guidance disappoints, the market could quickly test how much optimism is already priced in.


My approach: keep DCA-ing into broad-market ETFs rather than trying to time the top, while keeping some cash ready for a meaningful pullback. I would rather add more aggressively after a correction than chase a euphoric rally.


So Iā€™m still participating, just not accelerating. Earnings need to prove that fundamentals can catch up with prices. šŸ“Š

Last Speech Before Blackout: What Will Warsh Say?
Fed Chair Warsh speaks in Bangkok on October 16 Beijing time, the last official comment before the FOMC blackout ahead of the October 27ā€“28 meeting. Markets price about 80% odds of no move in October and similar odds of a December hike: QQQ closed Thursday -1.34% at $747.58, SPY -0.42% at $773.93. On October 7 the 10-year hit 5.366% and the 30-year 5.728%, both highest since 2002. Bulls say the hold is priced and a non-hawkish speech lifts an overhang; bears say term premium and fiscal imbalances drive the long end, and the Fed can't fix either. What do you want to hear from Warsh?
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