SmartReversals
SmartReversals
I care about helping you navigate this market. Nowadays, it's all about permabears & permabulls, I use technical indicators with objectivity. God First.
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06-17 06:38

SpaceX Rally Continues as SPX Gap Fill Is Underway

As posted yesterday, a gap fill for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was highly probable given the overextended condition of the price action, making key price levels essential to watch for an early reversal. The Central Daily Level (CDL) shared for today was 7,549.0, and I noted that upward momentum would be endangered if that level was breached. A breakdown below that CDL exposed our downside target of 7,521.0, which was hit by 3:45 PM 🎯 and subsequently breached, suggesting bearish continuation for tomorrow. Because the initial rally was so rapid (and we have studied how suspicious a sharp, early-week jump can be) I also provided key daily levels for the Magnificent Seven to help you manage risk. $Meta Platforms, I
SpaceX Rally Continues as SPX Gap Fill Is Underway
avatarSmartReversals
06-16 07:06

Market Outlook: $SPX Extends Rally, $AMD Targets Higher, $IWM Flashes Caution

Markets remain firmly in risk-on mode as bullish momentum continues to build. Here are the key levels and setups to watch for $SPX, $AMD, and $IWM today. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Geopolitical headlines fueled the rally, no need to fight the trend. We're in bullish mode since Thursday, staying cautious. Price is far from overbought, so continuation is likely. ➡️Watch the 7,456 gap; it will likely fill as we've seen gaps fill at this stage of the run. 2. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Bullish Stochastic crossover. The price could move between $524.2 and $536.8 today. If the upper level is breached, $543.1 is the next target. The gap at $490.4 that opened on Friday is likely to be filled in the coming days. 3. <
Market Outlook: $SPX Extends Rally, $AMD Targets Higher, $IWM Flashes Caution
avatarSmartReversals
06-16 07:03

Daily Levels for SPX, the Magnificent Seven, and SPCX

The market saw a bullish breakout today fueled by geopolitical headlines. While Friday’s price action ended on a weak note, the use of levels to assess scenarios is working well. I mapped out in the Weekly Compass that an $S&P 500(.SPX)$ opening above 7417 would be bullish targeting 7,530; the price closed today at 7,554 🎯. “The SPX begins the week weak around its Central Daily Level (CDL) of 7,417. If there are no major negative headlines during these days, reaching 7,530.5.” Not only did the market avoid negative headlines, but it caught a powerful tailwind from positive updates regarding a potential peace agreement in Iran. As also detailed in the Weekly Compass, the Magnificent Seven were likely to bounce. That is what materialized today,
Daily Levels for SPX, the Magnificent Seven, and SPCX

Strait of Hope Meets IPO Hype: How Strong Is the Bounce?

Optimism in the Strait and IPO euphoria drove the rebound, but any minimal break next week could send markets tumbling again. U.S. equities closed a volatile week with broad gains. Falling oil prices followed geopolitical headlines, and the blockbuster $SpaceX(SPCX)$ IPO stabilized the tape after a -4% sharp selloff in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and -6% in the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ . The S&P 500 bounced and closed positive +0.65% for the week. the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) added 2.3%, and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ climbed 0.7%. The week was not clean, the S&P 500 and the Dow swung wildly mid-week on optimism about the conflict with I
Strait of Hope Meets IPO Hype: How Strong Is the Bounce?

$AMZN Faces a Key Test, $MSFT Targets $397

Both Amazon and Microsoft are trading near critical technical levels. Amazon is attempting to stabilize at support, while Microsoft is looking to build a base after a recent pullback. Monday's price action should provide important clues on whether buyers are ready to regain control. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Oversold. Volume profile points to a make-or-break spot here, with oscillators calling for a relief bounce. On Monday, the price must stay here, since the closest support is at 234 (-1.85%). If there is a bounce, 240 is the resistance to watch. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ After nailing a high probability bearish move for subscribers, the price could find consolidation considering oversold conditions. Price action is b
$AMZN Faces a Key Test, $MSFT Targets $397

SPX: -4% Dip and Bounce. Is the Pullback Over?

Last week’s Setups Blueprint delivered exceptional results, it presented seven setups with the highest probability of success: $Apple(AAPL)$ : My blueprint anticipated a decline to an extended target of 297 (-3.1%). It extended further, hitting its 3rd support at 290 for a weekly move of -5.3% 🎯. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Targeted a -1.2% decline to 7,294. This acted as the support zone where the price bounced on both Wednesday and Thursday 🎯. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ : I expected a decline to 398.6 (-4.3%). The actual move went deeper to -6.3%, exceeding our bearish expectations 🎯. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ : Targeted an extended bearis
SPX: -4% Dip and Bounce. Is the Pullback Over?

End of the Pullback, or the Calm Before More?

$7,309 was the central daily level for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ today. The index struggled through the morning and that level acted as resistance, as expected, given that volatility is high and yesterday’s decline in the index was full of conviction. At 1:30 PM, however, the index rallied +0.7% and the central level was recovered based on positive geopolitical news. Also as anticipated, the next resistance, the bullish target zone, was 7,353, and price reached it in a matter of two minutes. After about an hour of consolidation, the rally continued toward 7,440, and the day ended before that milestone was reached. Daily levels become key when the weekly ones are too wide, a product of high volatility and large price moves. That was the case for
End of the Pullback, or the Calm Before More?

Has the S&P 500 Finally Reached a Bounce Zone After a 4% Selloff?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ After a -4% pullback, the index has reached the lower Bollinger band and the oscillator is curling up. There is space for further decline until reaching oversold conditions, but a breather is possible. Will be on Friday when $Space Exploration Technologies(SPCX)$ is literally launched? The S&P 500 closed at 7,386.65 (-0.26%) after a session with high volatility; for second day the confluence zone of the Central Monthly and Central Weekly level acted as resistance (details below), and our bearish weekly target of 7,294 posted in the Weekly Compass ahead of this week was reached and exceeded today (-1.2% versus Friday’s close). The anticipated gap fill to $7,212 had a first serious a
Has the S&P 500 Finally Reached a Bounce Zone After a 4% Selloff?

The IPO That Could Change Markets Forever: SpaceX Arrives

SpaceX - Largest IPO in Financial History, What to Expect The biggest launch this week is not on a soccer field - Technical study of major IPOs The World Cup may kick off tomorrow, but the stock market has its own main annual event this Friday. On June 12, 2026, SpaceX goes public on the Nasdaq under the ticker $Space Exploration Technologies(SPCX)$ , and it is set to be the largest IPO in financial history. The numbers are built for headlines: a valuation near $1.77 trillion, a share price of $135, and a rare 30% allocation reserved for retail investors. For once, Retail Traders get a seat at the table from day one. In a typical IPO, almost all the shares at the offering price go to large institutions and favored clients of the underwriting banks
The IPO That Could Change Markets Forever: SpaceX Arrives

Fear Rising, Bears Still in Control as $SPX Bounce Fails at Key Levels

The market's inability to build on oversold conditions points to a fragile backdrop. For now, every failed bounce strengthens the bearish case. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Fear is rising after an extended period of dumb money confidence, which usually precedes declines. Sentiment indicators like Fear & Greed or Smart/Dumb Money do not time turning points like price action, but they signal when to stay in defensive mode, like today. Technical bounces following a sell-off are normal, but today's bounce completely vanished, validating the bearish thesis. Not even the daily level of $7,431 posted last night for everyone subscribed was recovered. The chart remains bearish and suggests a continuation lower. 😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins
Fear Rising, Bears Still in Control as $SPX Bounce Fails at Key Levels

$NDX $IWM $SMH Print Inside Candles as Market Awaits Direction

As mentioned on Saturday in the Weekly Compass, “A temporary relief spike on Monday is possible,” and that is what the price action presented today. The reason is simple: short-term timeframes were extremely oversold. As usual, the levels played a critical role today. Price action revolved around the Central Daily Level of 7,431, attempting to move north, but the CWL provided to our premium subscribers acted as precise resistance. Price action printed an inside candle for the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ and key ETFs like $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ and $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ . Inside candles reflect market uncertainty with neither side establishing clear directio
$NDX $IWM $SMH Print Inside Candles as Market Awaits Direction

SPX & NDX Lose Key Momentum Levels as Volatility Returns

Hello everyone, The futures session has opened and we are already seeing volatility. Prices opened in the red before staging a quick bounce. As mentioned on Saturday, a spike is possible, but the indices must recover their central weekly levels to provide stronger validation for a sustained bounce. I also outlined the less likely scenario of a gap down. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ The key readings for this week include: 1. Support and Resistance Levels for the Week Ahead This report covers the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$
SPX & NDX Lose Key Momentum Levels as Volatility Returns

$AAPL Top Signal, $TSM Shooting Star, $NDX Overbought: What's Next?

The market remains near record highs, but bearish price action and overbought conditions are starting to flash caution signals. Key levels in $NDX, $AAPL, and $TSM could determine the next move. 1. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Such bearish price action at all-time highs suggests continuation. When those bearish candles are validated by an overbought RSI, the bearish likelihood increases. Can the market open green tomorrow? Yes, but it must prove any bounce by recovering key weekly levels. 2. $Apple(AAPL)$ TOP SIGNAL $AAPL is constantly analyzed in my Trading Compas (daily and weekly). We have navigated bounces and tops successfully by combining technicals and S/R levels. Link in bio for the full analysis and levels f
$AAPL Top Signal, $TSM Shooting Star, $NDX Overbought: What's Next?

Nailed the Top: SPX 7,620 Reached and Overheated Conditions Validated

U.S. equities closed the first week of June with steep losses as a stalled technology rally and rising interest rate expectations pressured the market. A much stronger than expected May labor report triggered the reversal from overbought levels called during the recent days (and reinforced on Thursday afternoon to paid subscribers). The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs last month, far above forecasts of 85,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and upward revisions to March and April added another 93,000 jobs. The data erased expectations for near-term rate cuts. Investors sold government bonds aggressively, pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar. Markets are now fully pricing a quarter-point rate increase by year-end under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Highe
Nailed the Top: SPX 7,620 Reached and Overheated Conditions Validated

$SPX Target Achieved, Major Sell-Off Follows

Over a month ago, I updated my $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bullish target to 7,638, utilizing the annual line that has been included in my charts since the beginning of the year. On Wednesday, I highlighted that this target could be considered effectively reached when the market printed all-time highs at 7,620. Following today’s sharp sell-off, that analysis has proven remarkably accurate 🎯. When I establish a target for a weekly, monthly, or annual timeframe, I rely strictly on technical indicators and support and resistance models mapped out well ahead of price action. As my paid subscribers know, this is not the first time an anticipated top has precisely triggered a major sell-off; the February 2025 top stands as another successful example. Yesterday
$SPX Target Achieved, Major Sell-Off Follows

$SPX Rebounds, Tech Loses Leadership, and Sector Rotation Takes Center Stage

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at 7,584.3 (+0.4%) after bouncing from the confluence zone of the 7,520 weekly level and the 7,515 daily level. The first validation of the bounce came at 10:00 AM with the recovery of the 7,534 daily level, followed by a move over the 7,559 central weekly level around 11:00 AM, establishing a bullish milestone that was consolidated when the central daily level of 7,570 held for the remainder of the day. These key levels were highlighted in yesterday’s Market Update (access here), alongside the potential bounce for $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ . Both tech giants validated the bearish setups anticipated in the Weekly Compa
$SPX Rebounds, Tech Loses Leadership, and Sector Rotation Takes Center Stage

Choppy Markets Return: $SPX Hits Target as $AAPL, $IWM and $AMZN Reverse

The stock market has entered a highly choppy environment characterized by rapid, day-to-day reversals. For instance, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rallied 6.2% on Monday only to reverse -3.2% today. Similarly, $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ posted a +0.93% bullish move yesterday but is down -1.3% today. These sudden, signal-free shifts illustrate just how volatile conditions can get. As we observed during the reversals of February 2025 and February 2026, this type of price action requires extreme caution. Keep in mind that this choppy price action is triggering right after the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ neared $7638, the target I updated a couple of weeks ago. With this week’s recent
Choppy Markets Return: $SPX Hits Target as $AAPL, $IWM and $AMZN Reverse

$SPX Tests 7,620 While $AAPL and $PLTR Reach Key Levels

Markets continue to grind higher, but key technical levels are beginning to matter. While $SPX battles resistance near 7,620, $AAPL is flashing a potential near-term warning signal and $PLTR remains one of the strongest momentum names on the board. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Slow moves keeping the price moving up steadily. Same as yesterday, $7,620 acted as a resistance zone. The close was better than yesterday, but the resistance remains the same; bulls want a breakout and bears want a definite rejection. Greed is at 57, breadth is still weak. 2. $Apple(AAPL)$ Shooting star candles in Apple have a high accuracy rate as near-term bearish signals. Today, we find out if this drop is short-lived or sustained. Di
$SPX Tests 7,620 While $AAPL and $PLTR Reach Key Levels

$SPX, $QQQ & $PLTR: Momentum Holds, But Warning Signs Are Emerging

Markets continue to grind higher, but bearish RSI divergences and overbought conditions are beginning to appear beneath the surface. While $SPX and $QQQ are showing increasingly indecisive price action, $PLTR remains a standout with a strong technical breakout that could extend higher if software stocks take leadership next week. 📈 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Indecisive price action again (doji), printing a bearish RSI divergence with both peaks locked in overbought territory. Will weekend news arrive to fuel momentum again, or is the market simply widening this structural divergence before a pullback? 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Indecisive daily price action, an overbought RSI divergence, and a gap sitting below at
$SPX, $QQQ & $PLTR: Momentum Holds, But Warning Signs Are Emerging

$SMH Shows Warning Signs as $MSFT and $LLY Hit Their Targets

The market's biggest winners continue to deliver, with software and healthcare names extending their breakouts. However, after leading the rally for months, semiconductor stocks are beginning to show early signs of consolidation and deserve closer attention. 1. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ Since semiconductors have driven most of the recent rally, printing a weekly indecisive candle with a gap below is a reason to be careful. The overbought RSI points to the same thing. To fill the gap, SMH would have to fall -5%. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 2. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $MSFT was posted as a high probabi
$SMH Shows Warning Signs as $MSFT and $LLY Hit Their Targets

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