By Lawrence G. McMillan One doesn’t often consider butterfly spreads or condors, say, as short-term speculative strategies. However, they can be, if you set them up that way. The main problem with butterflies, in particular, is that they don’t reach their profit potential until very near expiration (unless the strikes are extremely far apart). Typically a butterfly spread is constructed in this manner: Example:Buy 1 XYZ May 50 call @ 6 Sell 2 XYZ May 60 calls @ 2 Buy 1 XYZ May 70 call @ 1 Net debit : 3 points, or $300 The spread has limited loss and limited profit. The maximum loss is equal to the initial debit of $300 paid for the spread. The maximum loss would be incurred if XYZ were below 50 or above 70 at expiration. The maximum profit occurs at the middle strike at expiration, and in

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 13, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/embed/swkoOcxjtJE$GOTU$ 

$TVIX$ $UVIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan After bottoming near 6300 on March 30th, $SPX has rallied strongly. The first stage was an oversold rally that carried up to resistance just above 6600. Then a temporary cease-fire was announced in the Iran war, and the market exploded with a large upside gap. That move overcame a number of resistance levels, and is now testing resistance just above 6800. There are various pockets of resistance all the way up to the all-time highs at 7000. Support is harder to quantify, because that gap extends all the way down to 6615, which should be support. Let's start with the equity-only put-call ratios. The weighted ratio (Figure 3) is clearly on a buy signal, and th

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 6, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/embed/6IG13ACEPow$GOTU$ 

$MVB.AU$ $TVIX$ $UVIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Volatility continues to be elevated both in terms of realized and implied. $SPX dropped sharply early in the week as various support levels gave way on the $SPX chart. Of primary concern was the violation of the 6475-6550 support area. Eventually, $SPX bottomed on Tuesday, with a low near 6330 which was also a minor low last August. There should also be support near 6200 (the lows of last July). The rally (so far) reached as high as 6610. There are a number of potential resistance points in that area. First is the 200-day Moving Average, which $SPX is now approaching from below. Perhaps more importa

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 30, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/embed/Yet5_3y8OjI$GOTU$ 

$VIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan The major averages continue to decline, and they are in a seriously bearish mode. Moreover, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows persists, so there is a distinct downtrend line that can be drawn (see Figure 1, purple line). The support level at 6500-6550 that had originally been established back in October and November has been tested. But today, we are nearing 6400, so one has to say that support level has been broken. There is potential support near 6200, which was the low of last July and August (see the chart in Figure 1). Equity-only put-call ratios continue to climb, and that is bearish for stocks. Both ratios made new relative highs yesterday (March 26th) and they are going to remain on sell signals u

$MVB.AU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan If you’ve been following the market closely, you’ve likely noticed that conditions have changed. Volatility is rising. Trends are becoming less reliable. And sentiment indicators are beginning to shift in a more defensive direction. This is the type of environment where many traders struggle—not because opportunities disappear, but because the margin for error becomes much smaller. In markets like this, discipline and structure matter more than ever. When Conditions Change, Your Approach Should Too During strong, trending markets, it’s often possible to rely on momentum and broad participation. That is not what we’re seeing now. Instead, we’re seeing: Increased volatility across indices Weake

$UVXY$  By Lawrence G. McMillan The stock market sold off fairy heavily into the 6500-6550 support zone for $SPX on November 14, but then it rallied strongly off of that support area. That support has been tested several times and continues to get an A+ on the test. But overhead, there is a myriad of resistance, so for now $SPX remains in a trading range. The index has rallied back to and slightly exceeded its declining 20-day moving average, near 6750. Above that, however, there is a downtrend line at about 6850 and then the all-time highs, at 6900. Equity-only put-call ratios have continued to march higher, though, as traders have been steadily buying puts probably more as a protective measure than a bearish speculation. Regardless, as long

By Lawrence G. McMillan We have been trading this seasonal spread annually every year since 1994, except for 1995.  Last year, we were stopped out with a rather large loss after 53 trading days.  The spread was sitting very near our stop one day, and then jumped over six points higher the next day, costing an additional $2,520 per contract.  In its current form, we buy RBOB Gasoline futures and sell Heating Oil futures, with both contracts expiring in February of the following year.  The spread is entered in late November and is normally exited in late December or early January.  We do not use options in the spread.  We have looked many times at trying to incorporate options, but the time value premium of February options bought in November is just too damagin

By Lawrence G. McMillan Stocks sold off early in the week, but traders were sort of waiting around for the NVDA earnings, which were released after the close on Wednesday, November 19th. When those earnings were positive and guidance was positive, a monster rally took place. NVDA itself was up 10 points, but $SPX really took the news in a very positive way, and it rose 110 points on Thursday morning. Then, a harsh dose of reality set in, and $SPX experienced one of the sharpest drops in recent months losing nearly 240 points from its highs, to finish near the lows of the day. Not only that, but signs of panic in the volatility space accompanied that massive price reversal. This has produced some oversold conditions, but "oversold does not mean buy," as we've said hundreds of times before.

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on November 17, 2025. https://www.youtube.com/embed/ulxoAiQ7jtI$GOTU$ 

By Lawrence G. McMillan For over a week now, strong selloffs have been followed fairly quickly by strong rallies. This is the type of action that occurs in a trading range environment, and we might well be in one of those for a while now. There is resistance at 6900 (the all-time highs). Furthermore, support emerged at 6630 (last Friday's lows) to go along with the stronger support level in the 6500-6550 area. Today's low (so far) was 6646, which would reinforce that general area 6630-6646 as support. There is a very mixed picture emanating from our various indicators another fact which might suggest a trading range market. The equity-only put-call ratios are still negative for stocks. That is, the ratios are rising. The standard ratio has made new relative highs on several days this week.

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on November 10, 2025. https://www.youtube.com/embed/5Q7keRsstho$GOTU$ 

$UVXY$  By Lawrence G. McMillan After having gapped to new all-time highs a little more than a week ago, the broad stock market has gone into a modest (so far) corrective mode. $SPX has now closed both of the gaps that were in place from late October, and has closed below the first support level of 6750. This is not a major breakdown of the chart at this point. $SPX has merely pulled back to its rising 20-day moving average. The next support level is the 6500-6550 level that has been tested and held several times. If that were to be broken, then a much more bearish outlook would be in store. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to rise, so their sell signals (for the stock market) of a couple of weeks ago remain in place. As long as the ratio

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on November 3, 2025. https://www.youtube.com/embed/cCnOHAxlcV8$GOTU$ 

$VXX$ $TVIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan The market eventually shrugged off the most recent "tariff tantrum" and moved to new all-time highs. The breakout came on two gap days to the upside -- very strong action. That created support at the old highs, near 6750. There is also the major support below there at 6500-6550. The equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals however, since they made a bottom and began to rise over a week ago. There has been some back-and-forth action in the ratios over the past couple of days, which might bring these sell signals into question. However, the computer analysis programs continue to grade them as "sell." Market breadth has deteriorated badly over the past

$BOX$ $XYZ$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Recently, there have been some articles in the media – both print and social – about box spreads and how people are using them to get reduced-cost loans. Some of these articles lacked full information and others seem to miss the point completely, so we thought we’d explain how this whole thing works. Definition A box spread involves four options – two puts and two calls, two striking prices, and all with just one expiration date. It is actually a form of arbitrage that has been available in the option markets since day 1. For example, in a box spread, one might be selling a call credit spread and also selling a put credit spread with the exact same te

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on October 27, 2025. https://www.youtube.com/embed/MVzbBUZjgNE$GOTU$ 

$VXX$ $TVIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Ever since $SPX dropped over 200 points on Friday, October 10th, (including after-market trading on the NYSE), there has been a difference in the volatility market.  Simply stated, the market has been increasingly more volatile.  This included not only intraday volatility, but a substantial increase in longer-term volatility measures such as the 20-day historical volatility of $SPX (HV20) or $VIX itself (a 30-day volatility estimate).   Over the course of the ensuing week, there were large moves in volatility, including a historic $VIX spike up and back down again.  Usually, when volatility begins to increase rapidly, that is a very b