Last week's post was a timely reminder: gold prices were facing correction expectations. As it turned out, stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll data finally triggered a significant adjustment in gold prices. However, based on historical data of similar gold market trends, this correction is just getting started and remains far from the historical average decline of over 20%. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting approaching next week, gold prices are likely to fall further. For those looking to "buy the dip," it's advisable not to rush in too soon.Historical Magnitude and Timing of Gold CorrectionsAnyone who has followed my posts or live streams knows that I always provide estimations of the extent and timing for every significant market move, and the accuracy of these predict

As Jerome Powell continues to stress uncertainties around the economy and inflation—firmly sticking to a “hawkish” stance against rapid rate cuts—President Trump has now “reached his limit,” openly questioning whether he holds the authority to “fire” the Federal Reserve Chair.Though actually removing Powell in practice would be quite difficult—and with Powell’s term set to expire next year, it·s debatable whether such a move would even be necessary—the increasing disconnect between presidential policy and Fed monetary policy has become stark. Against the backdrop of shifting tariff policies, unexpected headlines have started to hit the market with greater frequency. Given Trump’s characteristic unpredictability, it’s hardly unthinkable that he might impulsively announce Powell’s dismissal,

On April 4, China announced a series of countermeasures against the United States' imposition of tariffs, including a decisive move to impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the U.S. This unprecedented response caught global markets off guard, highlighting China's preparedness since the 2018 trade war and revealing vulnerabilities in Western financial markets. As news spread, commodities faced significant sell-offs, and global markets began pricing in a potential economic recession. The U.S. stock indices’ sharp decline echoed patterns seen during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, signaling growing pessimism about the global economy.U.S. Stock Indices Enter Recession Mode, Resembling 2020 Pandemic TrendsThough skepticism toward U.S. stock performanc

On March 26, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an announcement at the White House declaring a 25% tariff on imported cars. The measure will take effect on April 2. Trump emphasized that the tariff would be permanent, adding that cars manufactured within the United States would be exempt from the tax.Trump's statement quickly triggered backlash from U.S. trade partners, including the European Union, Canada, and Japan. 1. Where is the Support Level for the Second Phase of the U.S. Stock Index Decline?Recent analyses suggest that the U.S. stock index rebound seen earlier was merely temporary and not indicative of a full recovery. In fact, the rebound was weaker than expected, reinforcing the likelihood that February's peak will remain the high point for the year. Given the renewed downward t

Media Report: U.S. and Russia Expected to Release Joint Statement at 4 PM Beijing Time.According to CBS News, after the Saudi-hosted talks on a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea region, it is anticipated that the United States and Russia will issue a joint statement. .The announcement is scheduled for 4 AM Washington time, 11 AM Moscow time, and 4 PM Beijing time. While specific details of the statement remain unclear, reports from U.S. technical teams in Saudi Arabia shared with the Trump administration appear optimistic. Additionally, Ukrainian officials have been briefed on the developments.Historically, factors driving gold price fluctuations have revolved around two key attributes: its role as a hedge against inflation and its value as a safe-haven asset. Since President Trump took

This Thursday at 2:00 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate setting meeting, which receives significant market attention, especially during quarterly meetings. Previously, there were pessimistic expectations about the Fed cutting rates twice this year. If the post-meeting press conference does not convey a sufficiently hawkish stance, the market might become more optimistic, potentially boosting indices further. Therefore, stock index trends might change around Wednesday this week. If there's a significant rebound on Monday and Tuesday, investors should be cautious about potential peak rebounds on Wednesday, as the market's fear index (VIX) is relatively high, and a double bottom is quite common.Wind Direction: Will the Federal Reserve Remain Cautious This Month,

Last year, to avoid a U.S. government debt default, Congress approved a temporary funding bill extending federal government funding until March 14, 2025. With this deadline approaching next week, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a new temporary funding measure lasting until September 30. This bill is scheduled for a vote next Tuesday. Although the probability of outright rejection is relatively low, uncertainties remain. Political maneuvering by a minority of lawmakers and possible delays from the Democratic Party could complicate or prolong the bill's passage, thereby negatively impacting market sentiment.U.S. Stocks: Approaching Interim Lows—Short-Term Rebound PossibleAfter significant declines last week, major U.S. indices—led by the S&P 500—have dropped around 8%, nearing a

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky engaged in a heated debate in the Oval Office, with Trump even warning that Ukraine was “gambling on World War III.” Despite the dramatic confrontation broadcast live for the world to witness, the U.S. stock market displayed relatively little reaction. Instead, traders and investors appeared to focus on the possibility of progress in Russo-Ukrainian peace negotiations.While the markets initially dipped following the news, volatility quickly subsided, and stocks began to recover. The "fear index" on Wall Street briefly spiked but stabilized shortly after. Keith Lerner, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Truist Advisory Services, commented that investors seemed to interpret Trump’s remarks as political theatrics ra

During Thursday evening's live session, I emphasized that February represents a pivotal time window for U.S. stock indices. Unlike other periods, this month often dictates the market's trajectory for the entire year. As if on cue, U.S. stock indices experienced a decline on Friday, marking another "Black Friday." While the drop was not severe, its implications should not be underestimated. I advise caution in managing your U.S. stock index positions to guard against potential volatility. For a more detailed analysis of this critical period and corresponding strategies, join me in this Thursday's 8 PM live session.Economic Data Sparks Concerns: U.S. Bonds Surge, Stocks PlungeOn February 21, 2025, Wall Street witnessed one of the worst trading days of the year for U.S. stocks. Despite varyin

Under typical circumstances, Fridays without major economic data releases are usually marked by subdued market movements. However, last Friday saw gold prices experience the largest single-day decline since the current rally began. Does this signify the start of a collapse in gold prices, or is it merely a false retreat by the bulls? To answer this question, one must analyze the underlying news event that triggered this decline.Over the weekend, reports emerged that since Donald Trump’s presidency began, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its third year, with signs of potential negotiations on the horizon. U.S. officials are set to meet with Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the conflict. Details surrounding the talks remain limited, except for the fact that th

January 20th marked the inauguration of the new U.S. President, Donald Trump, officially kicking off the "Trump 2.0" era. This inauguration was quite different from past ceremonies, breaking several long-standing American traditions. For instance, it was moved from the usual outdoor setting to indoors, foreign leaders were invited—a rare exception—and it set a new record for fundraising. These unique elements definitely made the event stand out.Now, when it comes to the financial markets, what really grabs my attention are the executive orders Trump might sign after taking office. There were plenty of expectations about his policies before, but the real question is whether there will be any surprises. These unexpected moves could shake up the markets, so it's best to tread carefully when t

2025 is a new year for every investors，but if the turmoil and conflicts increase in this year, it means that the "risk aversion" sentiment will exist for a long time, and it will have a long-term bullish effect on "risk aversion" assets. Of course, long-term bullish does not mean that there will be no major turmoil in the short term. It is just observed at the annual level that the price of gold has a certain increase every year, but the fluctuation in the middle of the year is not necessarily small.How long does the long-term bull market in gold prices last?According to the observation of the interest rate cut and depreciation cycle of the US dollar, the US dollar is in the interest rate cut stage, which usually causes inflationary sentiment; When the US dollar is in a volatile stage, it

Entering the new year, it's time to update the forward-looking series of anticipation for this year's market overview. I have shared and discussed this series with you every January since 2019. It is obvious to all how accurate it is. Although the details are slightly biased, the general direction is generally correct. I suggest you keep it for later use and continue to review it later. Be prepared for more investment. As usual, let's start with the U.S. stock index.Recently, some domestic economists are discussing the situation of the U.S. stock market, believing that the U.S. stock index will burst and fall in the next 3-6 months. Although I am skeptical about whether the data listed in the report will burst within 3-6 months, I agree that there is a bubble in the US stock index.Looking

2025 is coming soon, and I wish all investors a successful start!!!Different from previous years, since January 2025, the financial market has ushered in an important drama. Trump, the "new emperor", will hold his inauguration ceremony on January 20th, and the policies and measures implemented after his inauguration will become the focus of the financial market in the future.Because Trump, a businessman, is good at negotiation and flexibility, before the policy is fully implemented, the variables are still large, so the financial market will also cause corresponding fluctuations due to this change. Of course, after the fluctuation, it is better to pay attention to the opportunity.Will U.S. stocks undergo deep adjustments?I have seen some analysis reports recently, and I am not very optimis

In the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve held its last interest rate meeting at the end of this year. As in the past, the results of the meeting itself have been fully expected by the market. What is important is the dot plot after the meeting and the expectation of next year's interest rate path revealed by the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech, which is the core that affects market prices. After last week's meeting, gold prices in the stock market plummeted.It shows that the market has lowered its expectation of the number of interest rate cuts next year. I'm afraid this expectation will not change until the new president takes office and the next interest rate meeting, so I hope everyone will remain cautious about the market.Does it have any impact on the US s

This Thursday night is the last Federal Reserve interest rate meeting this year, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the meeting. The continued interest rate cut of 25 basis points at this meeting has been fully expected by the market, so the market focus will be on the wording of the Fed meeting announcement and the content of Powell's subsequent speech. As Trump will officially take office next year, how the chairman of the Federal Reserve deals with this "new" president is also one of the key points of this meeting. To put it simply, it may be difficult for the Federal Reserve to avoid "political" issues with a neutral position at this meeting. The media are happy to speculate whether the Federal Reserve is with the new president. " Whether to "do it o