This week, there have been two notable pieces of news—one largely speculative and the other more concrete. The speculative news surrounds rumors that Jerome Powell might resign due to a certain issue. However, these reports lack substance for two reasons: first, Powell has only a short time left in his current term, making resignation unnecessary; second, the issue being cited appears to be more of a procedural pretext for testing reactions, with little chance of success. Should the Federal Reserve Chair actually resign under such circumstances, it would destabilize the US financial system—a risk far too serious for mere conjecture.The more substantial development involves Donald Trump, who has taken initiative ahead of the tariff negotiation deadline by sending letters to key trading part

During the U.S. Independence Day weekend, while Trump was busy passing his signature "Great American" bill, his former "ally" Elon Musk announced the establishment of a new party to oppose the bill, creating a dramatic situation. In the U.S. system, as long as certain conditions are met, forming a new party is not very difficult. Although the Democratic and Republican parties are the most commonly heard of, there is no law stating that the U.S. can only have these two parties.In reality, the U.S. operates a multi-party system, with over 100 legally registered parties including the Libertarian Party, Green Party, Independent Party, Communist Party, Constitution Party, and Pirate Party. However, the Democratic and Republican parties are overwhelmingly dominant. Since 1853, the U.S. has been

Last week, after the United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iran retaliated by striking U.S. military bases, the situation flipped abruptly: Israel and Iran reached a cease-fire, and oil prices collapsed. The ensuing surge and slump in crude, each sparked by fresh headlines, show that the earlier war-risk premium has evaporated and prices have returned to their pre-conflict levels. Because the dominant factor around that price zone was OPEC+ supply growth, oil is likely to remain range-bound unless the group announces a materially larger output hike.Steady U.S. Equity IndicesWhen regional tensions rise, the market’s focus drifts away from U.S. tariff issues, allowing American stock indices to keep grinding higher.The end of July is the deadline for trade talks, and it is unclea

The current market remains highly sensitive to developments in the Iran-Israel conflict, with prices fluctuating in response to changes in the situation.1. Can Oil Prices Continue to Surge?Oil prices are a leading indicator of inflation and play a pivotal role in shaping sentiment across the commodities market. As long as oil is not already at an exceptionally high level, a sharp increase in oil prices will inevitably raise concerns about rising production costs, which in turn are passed on to other commodities. At present, unless Iran completely abandons its nuclear ambitions, any easing of the conflict will be gradual, making oil prices more likely to rise than fall.A critical factor is Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. Should Iran implement a blockade, it would deal a severe blo

During last week's livestream, I highlighted the significant opportunities present in the crude oil market. The very next morning, news broke that Israel had launched a fierce attack on Iran. This led to the largest single-day price swing in crude oil since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with intraday prices soaring by more than 12% and triggering substantial volatility in the oil market.Those who have followed my livestreams and articles know that I have previously predicted a major price low for crude oil this year. From that low, I forecasted a potential doubling in oil prices. Up until now, the exact catalyst for such a rally had not been clear, but the eruption of the Israel-Iran conflict has now given new momentum to oil price increases. For more details, you can revisit last week’s li

On June 5, Xinhua News Agency reported that, at China’s invitation, the Chinese head of state held a phone conversation with the U.S. President, delivering a major signal toward normalizing Sino-U.S. trade negotiations. Easing and stabilizing China-U.S. trade relations would serve as a vital booster for the global economy: when China and the United States cooperate, both benefit; when they drift apart, both suffer. Although the details remain to be finalized, the mere fact of this high-level call—and the prospect of an in-person meeting—suggests that the broad contours of a trade agreement are largely settled. Barring any unexpected policy moves from President Trump before the end of July, market expectations should remain relatively stable and the impact of tariffs on further market devel

Originally, it was anticipated that the market would stabilize as progress was made in tariff negotiations and Russia-Ukraine talks, and the Federal Reserve clarified its interest rate cut trajectory following its latest meeting. However, just as the situation seemed to settle, a fresh wave of India-Pakistan conflict erupted, directly leading to sharp fluctuations in gold prices, signaling a renewed sense of uncertainty in the markets. Although later reports indicated a ceasefire between the two countries, sporadic clashes resumed within hours, making the news cycle highly unstable and necessitating an adjustment in price expectations.1. What Is the Impact on US Stock Indices?Currently, such small-scale regional conflicts have limited impact on the US stock market, and may even provide a m

At the beginning of last week, Trump “threatened” to fire Powell, then later stated he did not plan to dismiss the current Federal Reserve Chairman and hinted at lowering tariffs on China. This caused gold prices to spike and then retreat-a rare volatile movement. These remarks signaled a softening of Trump’s previously hardline stance on tariffs and Fed policy, easing the market’s risk-aversion sentiment to some extent. Since much of gold’s price increase since Trump took office has been driven by safe-haven demand, a shift in Trump’s attitude could trigger a sharp “stampede-like” sell-off among bullish investors, commonly known as a “long liquidation” or “long-unwinding” style correction.1. What is a “Long Liquidation” Style Sell-Off?In a bull market, when negative news is scarce, most m

The recent market has become highly disorderly due to fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies, with dramatic falls and rises triggered by mere words. In this emotional market environment, news can only determine short-term trends. Despite significant volatility, these large fluctuations do not represent medium to long-term market directions. Therefore, Trump's statement about delaying tariff policy implementation by 90 days alone cannot confirm that US stock indices have entered a reversal pattern - what if he changes his mind again in the near future?Technical Observation of US Stock IndicesWith neither news nor fundamentals yielding clear conclusions, it's evident that the market is heavily influenced by emotions. Therefore, tracking the market using technical analysis methods will be mo