USD The US Dollar traded unevenly, showing a softening trend against major peers like the Euro and Japanese Yen due to improved global risk sentiment. Speculative positioning has become heavily skewed toward USD selling, with gross short positions across eight IMM currency futures more than doubling to a six-month high of USD 17.4 billion. JPM economists continue to see global GDP staying resilient at 2.8%, with consumers as a key driver. GS economists anticipate a +45k headline NFP print and a 33bp core CPI reading for January, noting that January reports often provide outsized FX reactions. Nomura reported that year-ahead inflation expectations in the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations moved lower to 3.09%, the lowest since July 2025. Goldman Sachs traders warned that US stocks face

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Erases All Post-Election Gains, Plunging to $62K Amid "Full Capitulation" Bitcoin has officially wiped out all gains made since Donald Trump's 2024 election victory, crashing to a low of $62,200 on February 5 before stabilizing near $65,000. The collapse marks a 30% correction from its January peak, driven by a "perfect storm" of macro headwinds: dismal U.S. economic data, fears of an AI bubble burst, and intense geopolitical strain. On-chain metrics scream "capitulation," with Glassnode reporting the second-largest forced selling spike in two years. Despite the carnage, BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw record daily volume of $10 billion, suggesting that while retail panics, institutions are stepping in to absorb the liquidity event. The market mood is grim, with sentiment hi

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 as Bulls Defend "Weakest Bear Case "Bitcoin has staged a recovery, reclaiming the $70,000 psychological level after plunging to a 15-month low under $62,000 last week. The rebound is driven by a mix of institutional buying and whale accumulation. Binance bolstered its SAFU fund with a massive **$300 million Bitcoin purchase** (4,225 BTC), while Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) acquired an additional 1,142 BTC for $90 million. These corporate moves have acted as a backstop, absorbing the selling pressure that erased $500 billion from the market cap since mid-January. Analysts at Bernstein have doubled down on their bullish outlook, calling the recent sell-off the "weakest bear case on record" and reaffirming a $150,000 target for 2026. They cite tig

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Recovers Above $72,000 as Institutional Bulls Defend Long-Term Thesis Bitcoin (BTC) has managed a modest recovery, climbing back above the $72,000 mark ($72,222) after a brutal week of selling that saw prices dip below $60,000. Despite the short-term volatility, institutional conviction remains unshaken. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder Michael Saylor hinted at further accumulation with his "Orange Dots Matter" post, suggesting the firm is buying the dip even as its holdings sit below cost basis with a $3.4 billion unrealized loss. Similarly, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley called the sub-$70k levels a "once-in-a-lifetime" entry point, reinforcing the narrative that smart money is absorbing the panic selling. However, the market is navigating significant headwinds

1.0 Executive Summary Market Sentiment: Global markets are trading with a distinct "risk-off" tone as "AI jitters" trigger a broad sell-off in technology stocks, spilling over into commodities and high-beta currencies. The US Dollar has steadied after recent weakness, while the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are outperforming as investors seek safety. Geopolitical tensions remain a backdrop, with the market closely watching US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing "noisy" interpretation of US labor data. Key Themes: Macro Ambiguity: The US January NFP report delivered a "headline beat" of 130k jobs but was undermined by massive negative revisions (-862k through March 2025), complicating the Fed's policy path [Saxo]. JPY Resurgence: Hedge funds have aggressively flipped to a net bullish stance on

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil markets have trended lower, with prices for both Brent and WTI under pressure as the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a bearish report highlighting weak demand growth and swelling global inventories. The IEA slashed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, citing a significant slowdown in Chinese consumption and the rapid electrification of the transport sector. This bearish outlook was compounded by data showing that global oil stockpiles surged in 2025 by the most since the pandemic year of 2020, signaling a well-supplied market. Prices were further weighed down by the prospect of rising non-OPEC+ production, which the IEA expects to outpace demand growth, leading to a substantial market surplus throughout the year. Despite the bearish funda

1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is navigating mixed signals as traders digest resilient labor data against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and shifting Fed expectations. J.P. Morgan and Nomura are analyzing the implications of the upcoming NFP report, with JPM forecasting a softer 30k jobs gain (vs 68k consensus) but maintaining a steady 4.4% unemployment rate. This data, combined with a 0.35% MoM core CPI forecast, keeps the Fed on a path of caution rather than aggressive easing. MUFG notes that the dollar index (DXY) has lost some momentum, falling below 97.00 after hitting recent highs, as weaker-than-expected retail sales (flat in Dec) fueled bets for a June rate cut. Geopolitically, the dollar remains supported by safe-haven flows amidst ongoing US-Iran tensions and supply c