1.0 Executive Summary Market Sentiment: Global markets are trading with a distinct "risk-off" tone as "AI jitters" trigger a broad sell-off in technology stocks, spilling over into commodities and high-beta currencies. The US Dollar has steadied after recent weakness, while the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are outperforming as investors seek safety. Geopolitical tensions remain a backdrop, with the market closely watching US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing "noisy" interpretation of US labor data. Key Themes: Macro Ambiguity: The US January NFP report delivered a "headline beat" of 130k jobs but was undermined by massive negative revisions (-862k through March 2025), complicating the Fed's policy path [Saxo]. JPY Resurgence: Hedge funds have aggressively flipped to a net bullish stance on

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil markets have trended lower, with prices for both Brent and WTI under pressure as the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a bearish report highlighting weak demand growth and swelling global inventories. The IEA slashed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, citing a significant slowdown in Chinese consumption and the rapid electrification of the transport sector. This bearish outlook was compounded by data showing that global oil stockpiles surged in 2025 by the most since the pandemic year of 2020, signaling a well-supplied market. Prices were further weighed down by the prospect of rising non-OPEC+ production, which the IEA expects to outpace demand growth, leading to a substantial market surplus throughout the year. Despite the bearish funda

Bitcoin (BTC) Bearish Sentiment Persists Despite Long-Term Optimism Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,924, showing a decrease of approximately 2.28% over the last 24 hours. The market is grappling with a mix of bearish on-chain signals and cautious macro sentiment. Standard Chartered has issued a warning of potential "final capitulation," suggesting Bitcoin could fall to as low as $50,000 before a meaningful recovery later in the year [The Block]. This bearish outlook is reinforced by on-chain data indicating that the Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (LTH-RPRL) has fallen below 1 for the first time in this cycle. This metric suggests that even long-term convictions are being tested, with some holders selling at a loss, a phenomenon historically associated with the final

1.0 Executive Summary Market Sentiment: Risk appetite appears mixed to cautious as markets digest a "noisy" US jobs report that combined a strong headline beat with massive negative revisions to prior data. While the US dollar found support from rising yields, the standout performer was the Japanese Yen, which strengthened on a "Buy Japan" theme despite the robust US payrolls. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty regarding US trade policy continue to underpin volatility. Key Themes: US Labor Market Ambiguity: Jan NFP smashed estimates (+130k vs +70k), but 2025 revisions wiped out nearly 900k jobs, complicating the Fed's path [Saxo, GS]. JPY Resilience: Hedge funds have flipped bullish on the Yen, shrugging off the strong US data, driven by political stability under PM T

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil markets remain volatile but generally supported, with prices finding a floor around $69/bbl for Brent as the market balances geopolitical risk against mixed inventory data. The "risk-on" sentiment fueled by US-Iran talks has moderated slightly, shifting focus to physical fundamentals. A key development is the US Energy Secretary's visit to Venezuela to meet with officials and oil producers, signaling a deepening engagement that could further unlock Venezuelan supply for the global market. This diplomatic push aligns with recent sanctions easing, allowing companies like Chevron to plan significant output expansions. However, the immediate supply picture is complicated by a surprise 8.5 million barrel build in US crude inventories reported by the EIA, whi

Bitcoin (BTC) Institutional Giants Double Down Amidst Volatility and Regulatory Actions Bitcoin is currently navigating a period of heightened volatility, trading around the $68,000 mark after briefly dipping below $67,000 in intraday sessions. The asset has seen a narrowed decrease of approximately 1.36% over the last 24 hours. Despite this short-term price turbulence, the macro narrative remains dominated by aggressive institutional maneuvering. MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, continues to innovate its capital strategy to acquire more BTC. CEO Phong Le announced plans to issue "Stretch" perpetual preferred shares, a new financial instrument designed to offer investors exposure to digital capital while mitigating volatility risk. This move aims to fund further Bi

1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is navigating mixed signals as traders digest resilient labor data against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and shifting Fed expectations. J.P. Morgan and Nomura are analyzing the implications of the upcoming NFP report, with JPM forecasting a softer 30k jobs gain (vs 68k consensus) but maintaining a steady 4.4% unemployment rate. This data, combined with a 0.35% MoM core CPI forecast, keeps the Fed on a path of caution rather than aggressive easing. MUFG notes that the dollar index (DXY) has lost some momentum, falling below 97.00 after hitting recent highs, as weaker-than-expected retail sales (flat in Dec) fueled bets for a June rate cut. Geopolitically, the dollar remains supported by safe-haven flows amidst ongoing US-Iran tensions and supply c

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices have strengthened, with Brent trading around $69/bbl, supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions, supply-side concerns, and a "risk-on" sentiment driven by strong US economic data. The geopolitical landscape remains fraught, with Russia accusing the US of coercing nations like India to shun Russian oil, while Israel's Prime Minister is set to meet President Trump to discuss Iran. Supply tightness is a recurring theme, underscored by Shell's warning of a significant long-term production shortfall and OPEC's January output decline. Demand signals are mixed but leaning positive, with US consumer sentiment beating expectations and Chinese equity markets rallying on stimulus hopes. J.P. Morgan (JPM) maintains a watchful eye on global growth,

USD The US Dollar traded unevenly, showing a softening trend against major peers like the Euro and Japanese Yen due to improved global risk sentiment. Speculative positioning has become heavily skewed toward USD selling, with gross short positions across eight IMM currency futures more than doubling to a six-month high of USD 17.4 billion. JPM economists continue to see global GDP staying resilient at 2.8%, with consumers as a key driver. GS economists anticipate a +45k headline NFP print and a 33bp core CPI reading for January, noting that January reports often provide outsized FX reactions. Nomura reported that year-ahead inflation expectations in the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations moved lower to 3.09%, the lowest since July 2025. Goldman Sachs traders warned that US stocks face

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices have demonstrated resilience, holding onto recent gains as the market balances immediate geopolitical risks against a structurally bearish medium-term outlook. Brent futures traded firmly above the $68/bbl mark, supported by a confluence of supply-side concerns and lingering diplomatic tensions. While US-Iran talks in Oman concluded with a "positive" tone, averting immediate escalation, the lack of a concrete resolution keeps a risk premium embedded in the market. Traders remain wary of potential flare-ups, particularly with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu scheduled to meet President Trump to discuss the Iranian nuclear file. On the physical front, supply tightness is evident as the aftershocks of the US "deep freeze" continue to hamper producti

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 as Bulls Defend "Weakest Bear Case "Bitcoin has staged a recovery, reclaiming the $70,000 psychological level after plunging to a 15-month low under $62,000 last week. The rebound is driven by a mix of institutional buying and whale accumulation. Binance bolstered its SAFU fund with a massive **$300 million Bitcoin purchase** (4,225 BTC), while Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) acquired an additional 1,142 BTC for $90 million. These corporate moves have acted as a backstop, absorbing the selling pressure that erased $500 billion from the market cap since mid-January. Analysts at Bernstein have doubled down on their bullish outlook, calling the recent sell-off the "weakest bear case on record" and reaffirming a $150,000 target for 2026. They cite tig

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Recovers Above $72,000 as Institutional Bulls Defend Long-Term Thesis Bitcoin (BTC) has managed a modest recovery, climbing back above the $72,000 mark ($72,222) after a brutal week of selling that saw prices dip below $60,000. Despite the short-term volatility, institutional conviction remains unshaken. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder Michael Saylor hinted at further accumulation with his "Orange Dots Matter" post, suggesting the firm is buying the dip even as its holdings sit below cost basis with a $3.4 billion unrealized loss. Similarly, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley called the sub-$70k levels a "once-in-a-lifetime" entry point, reinforcing the narrative that smart money is absorbing the panic selling. However, the market is navigating significant headwinds

1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is rebounding after an initial post-FOMC sell-off, with renewed momentum driven by geopolitical jitters and a "hawkish hold" narrative gaining traction. J.P. Morgan highlights that while deleveraging was a theme last week, the USD pullback was "tamer" than expected relative to the volatility in other assets like crypto and metals. The bank has raised its targets for AUD/USD (0.73) and NZD/USD (0.63), signaling a rotation away from the US dollar and into pro-cyclical currencies, but maintains a structural short bias on EUR and GBP. Goldman Sachs argues that the dollar's high valuation is showing "wear and tear" as the US asset market cycle ages, suggesting global investors may start dialing down USD exposure. However, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fe

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices posted a modest recovery, with WTI settling above $63/bbl and Brent climbing over $68/bbl, as market participants digested the outcomes of US-Iran diplomatic talks in Oman. While the discussions ended without a concrete agreement, the dialogue was described as a "good start" and a "positive" step, helping to ease immediate fears of military escalation that had previously injected a significant risk premium into prices. However, a residual geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market as traders remain cautious about the long-term resolution of tensions, particularly given Iran's steadfast stance on nuclear enrichment. Adding to the complex geopolitical landscape, the EU announced plans for a full maritime services ban on Russian crude,