SDLiuSG personal page - To The Moon

SDLiuSG

SDLiuSG

No personal profile

524Follow

5Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-06-08

Good

Jidu makes cars to hand in the "answer sheet": concept car released, production version launched this autumn

2022-06-07

Great

@硬科技:高仙机器人：新品“奂影S1”发布当日签单超亿元

2022-06-07

123

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-04

123

@小咖科技:新机不息，套娃不止，无诚意的realme难以征战AIoT市场

2022-06-04

123

Senior Fed Hawkish Official: Inflation Has Not Peaked, Several 50bp rate hike Are Needed

2022-06-01

123

SaaS Concept Stocks Move Higher, Salesforce Gains Over 13%

2022-05-29

123

Does the world's most stock-trading central bank lose a huge loss? What's going on here

2022-05-25

123

Nio self-developed battery cells, will it be negative for Ningde era?

2022-05-24

123

Snap Plunges Nearly 30% After Hours! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring

2022-05-24

123

Snap Plunges Nearly 30% After Hours! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring

2022-05-23

Risk and opportunity

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-23

Risk and opportunity

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-22

123

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-22

123

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-20

123

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-20

123

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-03

123

Night Reading | How to Find the Ideal Trading Entry Slot?

2022-05-02

123

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-01

123

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-04-30

123

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3575949053778392","uuid":"3575949053778392","gmtCreate":1618589585154,"gmtModify":1619016437221,"name":"SDLiuSG","pinyin":"sdliusg","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":524,"tweetSize":364,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.01.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.10.24","exceedPercentage":"80.96%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.08.08","exceedPercentage":"60.64%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.05.26","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9051224460,"gmtCreate":1654701708150,"gmtModify":1676535495186,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051224460","repostId":"1109073629","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109073629","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654699209,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109073629?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-08 22:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Jidu makes cars to hand in the \"answer sheet\": concept car released, production version launched this autumn","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109073629","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"在高考第二日结束后，集度在造车问题上也交上了属于自己的一份“答卷”。","content":"<p><div>After the second day of the college entrance examination, Jidu also handed in its own \"answer sheet\" on the problem of building a car. On the evening of June 8, Jidu released the brand's first concept car, the ROBO-01. It is reported that Jidu plans to officially launch a limited edition of its first production model in the autumn of 2022, and the production model has a 90% similarity to the ROBO-01 concept car. From the official announcement of the creation of a smart car company in January 2021, to the determination of the styling design of the first mass-produced car in 100 days, to the completion of the visual and functional design of the automotive robot concept car in one year, to the debut of the first concept car ROBO-01 in less than a year and a half,...</p><p><a href=\"https://m.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-08/2313584.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"mrjjxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jidu makes cars to hand in the \"answer sheet\": concept car released, production version launched this autumn</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJidu makes cars to hand in the \"answer sheet\": concept car released, production version launched this autumn\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-08 22:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>After the second day of the college entrance examination, Jidu also handed in its own \"answer sheet\" on the problem of building a car. On the evening of June 8, Jidu released the brand's first concept car, the ROBO-01. It is reported that Jidu plans to officially launch a limited edition of its first production model in the autumn of 2022, and the production model has a 90% similarity to the ROBO-01 concept car. From the official announcement of the creation of a smart car company in January 2021, to the determination of the styling design of the first mass-produced car in 100 days, to the completion of the visual and functional design of the automotive robot concept car in one year, to the debut of the first concept car ROBO-01 in less than a year and a half,...</p><p><a href=\"https://m.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-08/2313584.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://m.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-08/2313584.html\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ae7d9112d50d31a74b7bbf5023ee6d","relate_stocks":{"00175":"吉利汽车","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://m.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-08/2313584.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109073629","content_text":"在高考第二日结束后，集度在造车问题上也交上了属于自己的一份“答卷”。6月8日晚，集度发布了品牌首款概念车ROBO-01。据悉，集度计划于2022年秋季正式推出其首款量产车型的限定版，量产车型拥有与ROBO-01概念车90%的相似度。从2021年1月官宣创建智能汽车公司，到用百天确定了首款量产车的造型设计，到用一年时间完成汽车机器人概念车的视觉与功能设计，再到不到一年半亮相首款概念车ROBO-01，集度在造车的进程方面不可谓不快。据了解，集度计划于2022年秋季正式推出其首款量产车型的限定版。此外，集度还将于今年的广州车展上发布其第二款量产车型的设计。首款量产车定价在20万元左右集度由百度与吉利合资成立，双方分别控股55%和45%。集度CEO夏一平此前曾表示，百度会在集度中做主导。具体而言，百度会在整体上负责端到端的服务，无论是软硬件都由百度主导进行。而借助百度在自动驾驶及智能座舱方面的积累，集度认为其产品的关键卖点不在于“电车”，而在于“智能”。公开资料显示，集度的首款产品将搭载百度诸多车载技术，包括无激光雷达纯视觉自动驾驶方案（ANP+AVP）、DuerOS 人工智能系统等，并搭载英伟达Orin X芯片和高通8295芯片，分别负责智能驾驶和智能座舱。图片来源：每经记者 孙磊 摄值得一提的是，集度首款产品的研发方式与传统汽车有所不同，其采取了\"敏捷开发\"模式，将智能座舱和智能驾驶的研发前置，从而缩短造车周期。据悉，集度借鉴飞机研发中的变稳飞机开发模式，推出集度SIMUCar（软件集成模拟样车），SIMUCar可以模拟未来车型的三电系统以及底盘系统，使得集度汽车能够在接近真实的整车环境下，研发和验证智能座舱、自动驾驶等功能，实现车辆工程和软件同步开发，提高研发效率。在2022年电动车百人会论坛期间，夏一平表示，在汽车制造方式方面，整个汽车的发展大方向是向着智能设备发展，但未来无论是打造四个轮子的机器人，还是在路上行走的机器人，采用造机器人的方式相对是比较通用的，而集度也将此次发布的概念车ROBO-01称作汽车机器人。“智能汽车3.0时代就是汽车机器人的时代，时代变革起点是汽车‘驾驶权’由人类向AI转移，AI驱动汽车进化。3.0时代的汽车行业将实现从能源变革向产品属性变革跃迁，其终极目标是汽车驾驶无人化。”夏一平说。除了智能化领域的积累之外，集度首款产品对比目前已有纯电动SUV最为直观的优势还在于其价格。与该车尺寸相近的特斯拉Model Y、福特Mustang Mach-E的售价在30万元左右。而百度CEO李彦宏在百度今年一季度财报电话会上透露，集度的目标市场是家庭用车，首款量产车定价在20万元左右，预计2023年量产交付。中国电子商会智能电动汽车专委会研究院副院长纪雪洪认为，集度汽车能否在2023年成功走向市场，取决于其“智能汽车机器人”的想法是否走得通。“对集度汽车而言，百度的自动驾驶技术储备是一大优势。但能否真正推出一个智能汽车机器人、从智能化的纬度进行竞争，是制约其取胜的关键因素。”纪雪洪告诉《每日经济新闻》记者。2024年交付第二款产品夏一平此前透露，集度首款产品使用的智能化架构JET可以实现软硬解耦，集度接下来每年都会基于该架构向市场投放一款新车。据悉，集度将于今年的广州车展，发布其第二款量产车型的设计，在2023年开始接受订单，并在2024年交付车辆。在车辆研发之外，集度还在推进产品制造、基础设施建设、渠道搭建等方面的布局。此前，有消息称，集度将在上海、北京两地设厂落地整车生产。对此，集度方面回应，集度没有在北京和上海设厂，集度首款车在吉利杭州湾工厂制造。值得一提的是，对于车企是否需要自建工厂或者采用代工的模式，夏一平曾公开透露过集度的想法。“整个造车的生命周期至少也得两三年，行业的变化是肯定的，但是短期我认为并不会发展到一个资源共享的代工模式。”夏一平认为，从整个世界发展看，地球资源是有限的，产能也不是无限扩张的，所以每一家公司最后再考虑本质的话还是回归核心：是自建工厂对公司有利还是走向资源共享带动模式，目前还是两种同时发展。除了在吉利工厂进行制造外，集度还会沿用吉利的供应链网络和供应链资源，且没有自建工厂的计划。夏一平认为，这可以降低供应商与新品牌合作的意愿，同时也可以降低产品成本。在基础设施建设方面，集度目前已在北京、上海两地分别设立了北京集度科技有限公司、上海集度汽车有限公司，注册资本均为3.09亿美元，法定代表人均为夏一平。两家新公司经营业务主要是新能源汽车整车及相关零部件的制造、销售、技术服务，以及新能源汽车换电设施销售、电动汽车充电基础设施运营等。图片来源：每经记者 孙磊 摄纪雪洪认为，当前完善新能源汽车配套设施已成为蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车等新能源车企提升用户体验的重要措施。“集度汽车与上述车企在配套设施方面有着明显差距，提早搭建充换电设施有助于在汽车产品推出时提供更好的服务。”纪雪洪说。在渠道建设上，集度将采取自建渠道模式，未来也不排除会探索一些新模式。不过，初期仍然会自建直营渠道。不难看出，集度正在为实现产品量产及以后的工作进行布局。江西新能源科技职业学院新能源汽车技术研究院院长张翔认为：“尽管今年国内新能源汽车销量快速增长，但仍有较大成长空间。因此集度等新玩家仍有机会。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00175":0.9,"BIDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051016643,"gmtCreate":1654608452782,"gmtModify":1676535477035,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051016643","repostId":"615171715","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615171715,"gmtCreate":1652859008437,"gmtModify":1676533118059,"author":{"id":"4091686409339050","authorId":"4091686409339050","name":"硬科技","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af5a3bfa4ca7d0599601f1fbecf0d30","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091686409339050","idStr":"4091686409339050"},"themes":[],"title":"高仙机器人：新品“奂影S1”发布当日签单超亿元","htmlText":"高仙機器人：商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元近日，高仙機器人發佈其商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”，這一產品在國內與海外同步銷售，海外名爲“Phantas”。據官方介紹，發佈當日，高仙機器人即簽單超1億元。（36氪）更多熱點資訊、洞察分析、研究報告、直播課程……敬請關注【硬科技】歡迎在各大主流平臺搜索【硬科技】，認準藍色logo的賬號！在這裏看見、讀懂和連接硬科技！我們聚焦光電芯片、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、智能汽車、生物醫藥、科創金融等行業，並依託於科技創新情報SaaS服務商智慧芽所擁有的獨特科技情報數據優勢，與讀者一起看見技術趨勢，讀懂硬科技產業，連接創新未來。“硬科技”由智慧芽創新研究中心出品。","listText":"高仙機器人：商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元近日，高仙機器人發佈其商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”，這一產品在國內與海外同步銷售，海外名爲“Phantas”。據官方介紹，發佈當日，高仙機器人即簽單超1億元。（36氪）更多熱點資訊、洞察分析、研究報告、直播課程……敬請關注【硬科技】歡迎在各大主流平臺搜索【硬科技】，認準藍色logo的賬號！在這裏看見、讀懂和連接硬科技！我們聚焦光電芯片、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、智能汽車、生物醫藥、科創金融等行業，並依託於科技創新情報SaaS服務商智慧芽所擁有的獨特科技情報數據優勢，與讀者一起看見技術趨勢，讀懂硬科技產業，連接創新未來。“硬科技”由智慧芽創新研究中心出品。","text":"高仙機器人：商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元近日，高仙機器人發佈其商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”，這一產品在國內與海外同步銷售，海外名爲“Phantas”。據官方介紹，發佈當日，高仙機器人即簽單超1億元。（36氪）更多熱點資訊、洞察分析、研究報告、直播課程……敬請關注【硬科技】歡迎在各大主流平臺搜索【硬科技】，認準藍色logo的賬號！在這裏看見、讀懂和連接硬科技！我們聚焦光電芯片、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、智能汽車、生物醫藥、科創金融等行業，並依託於科技創新情報SaaS服務商智慧芽所擁有的獨特科技情報數據優勢，與讀者一起看見技術趨勢，讀懂硬科技產業，連接創新未來。“硬科技”由智慧芽創新研究中心出品。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797612589130f0f9198e6259a4d95f43"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/615171715","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051018506,"gmtCreate":1654608394405,"gmtModify":1676535477004,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051018506","repostId":"1171329114","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059319855,"gmtCreate":1654302426677,"gmtModify":1676535427098,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059319855","repostId":"614023207","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614023207,"gmtCreate":1653295415610,"gmtModify":1676533137257,"author":{"id":"3561585442012100","authorId":"3561585442012100","name":"小咖科技","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c49940af36b09d1a12780ffb55f8fceb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561585442012100","idStr":"3561585442012100"},"themes":[],"title":"新机不息，套娃不止，无诚意的realme难以征战AIoT市场","htmlText":"文/張詩雨在機海戰術的助推下，手機套娃成realme的慣用手段。但萬萬沒想到，其宣傳即將推出的旗下首款平板也將使用這種套娃手段，顯然，realme這是要在套娃的路上越走越遠。筆者曾在《濫用機海戰術的realme問題顯現，成立近四年依然難逃小衆品牌宿命》一文中指出，在realme去年發佈的一系列機型中，realme GT、realme GTNeo、realme X7 Ultra、realme Q3i、realme Q3以及realme Q3Pro，通過對比發現，realme就是“無限套娃”技術。比如GT、GTNeo、Q3Pro三款手機，都有相同的後置三攝模組、6.43英寸AMOLED屏、3D鋼化液冷散熱，以及4500mAh大電池等。realme GT Neo閃速版和realme GT Neo則更誇張，兩款手機均採用天璣1200SOC，支持WIFI6，屏幕也都採用三星AMOLED屏幕，都支持6400萬索尼廣角三攝，不同點只是配色和充電速度上。嚐到甜頭的realme如今又將這種套娃“技術”完美複製在其平板產品上。據此前媒體報道，真我即將發佈的旗下第一款平板realme Pad搭載驍龍870芯片，同時也會搭載2.5K分辨率的120Hz LCD屏幕，電池容量爲8360mAh。realme徐起表示，該產品將會是同價位“板王”。衆所周知，武俠小說中有一項絕技叫易容術，將易容工具套在頭上可以變換面目，人皮面具最爲精緻，據說能以假亂真，武林中許多高手皆擅此道，在江湖上行走時廣泛使用。realme瘋狂造勢下也難掩尷尬，套娃情景比電視劇情節還要精彩。OPPO在二月份發佈的OPPO pad也採用了2.5K 120Hz高刷新率屏幕，搭載高通驍龍870旗艦處理器，電池容量爲8360mAh。如果realme的新品果真是如此配置，可以說，又將是realme換湯不換藥的騷操作。值得注意的是，很多廠商不乏套娃","listText":"文/張詩雨在機海戰術的助推下，手機套娃成realme的慣用手段。但萬萬沒想到，其宣傳即將推出的旗下首款平板也將使用這種套娃手段，顯然，realme這是要在套娃的路上越走越遠。筆者曾在《濫用機海戰術的realme問題顯現，成立近四年依然難逃小衆品牌宿命》一文中指出，在realme去年發佈的一系列機型中，realme GT、realme GTNeo、realme X7 Ultra、realme Q3i、realme Q3以及realme Q3Pro，通過對比發現，realme就是“無限套娃”技術。比如GT、GTNeo、Q3Pro三款手機，都有相同的後置三攝模組、6.43英寸AMOLED屏、3D鋼化液冷散熱，以及4500mAh大電池等。realme GT Neo閃速版和realme GT Neo則更誇張，兩款手機均採用天璣1200SOC，支持WIFI6，屏幕也都採用三星AMOLED屏幕，都支持6400萬索尼廣角三攝，不同點只是配色和充電速度上。嚐到甜頭的realme如今又將這種套娃“技術”完美複製在其平板產品上。據此前媒體報道，真我即將發佈的旗下第一款平板realme Pad搭載驍龍870芯片，同時也會搭載2.5K分辨率的120Hz LCD屏幕，電池容量爲8360mAh。realme徐起表示，該產品將會是同價位“板王”。衆所周知，武俠小說中有一項絕技叫易容術，將易容工具套在頭上可以變換面目，人皮面具最爲精緻，據說能以假亂真，武林中許多高手皆擅此道，在江湖上行走時廣泛使用。realme瘋狂造勢下也難掩尷尬，套娃情景比電視劇情節還要精彩。OPPO在二月份發佈的OPPO pad也採用了2.5K 120Hz高刷新率屏幕，搭載高通驍龍870旗艦處理器，電池容量爲8360mAh。如果realme的新品果真是如此配置，可以說，又將是realme換湯不換藥的騷操作。值得注意的是，很多廠商不乏套娃","text":"文/張詩雨在機海戰術的助推下，手機套娃成realme的慣用手段。但萬萬沒想到，其宣傳即將推出的旗下首款平板也將使用這種套娃手段，顯然，realme這是要在套娃的路上越走越遠。筆者曾在《濫用機海戰術的realme問題顯現，成立近四年依然難逃小衆品牌宿命》一文中指出，在realme去年發佈的一系列機型中，realme GT、realme GTNeo、realme X7 Ultra、realme Q3i、realme Q3以及realme Q3Pro，通過對比發現，realme就是“無限套娃”技術。比如GT、GTNeo、Q3Pro三款手機，都有相同的後置三攝模組、6.43英寸AMOLED屏、3D鋼化液冷散熱，以及4500mAh大電池等。realme GT Neo閃速版和realme GT Neo則更誇張，兩款手機均採用天璣1200SOC，支持WIFI6，屏幕也都採用三星AMOLED屏幕，都支持6400萬索尼廣角三攝，不同點只是配色和充電速度上。嚐到甜頭的realme如今又將這種套娃“技術”完美複製在其平板產品上。據此前媒體報道，真我即將發佈的旗下第一款平板realme Pad搭載驍龍870芯片，同時也會搭載2.5K分辨率的120Hz LCD屏幕，電池容量爲8360mAh。realme徐起表示，該產品將會是同價位“板王”。衆所周知，武俠小說中有一項絕技叫易容術，將易容工具套在頭上可以變換面目，人皮面具最爲精緻，據說能以假亂真，武林中許多高手皆擅此道，在江湖上行走時廣泛使用。realme瘋狂造勢下也難掩尷尬，套娃情景比電視劇情節還要精彩。OPPO在二月份發佈的OPPO pad也採用了2.5K 120Hz高刷新率屏幕，搭載高通驍龍870旗艦處理器，電池容量爲8360mAh。如果realme的新品果真是如此配置，可以說，又將是realme換湯不換藥的騷操作。值得注意的是，很多廠商不乏套娃","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a643472d5d07d5b423ebb04fc5c6de9"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9cd8bf041073ef424d14dbcc76e8e93"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c15fad33c7f1803386273a925aa0bb0d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614023207","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059310620,"gmtCreate":1654302348660,"gmtModify":1676535427106,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059310620","repostId":"2240203501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2240203501","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654290414,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240203501?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 05:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Senior Fed Hawkish Official: Inflation Has Not Peaked, Several 50bp rate hike Are Needed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240203501","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"2022年票委克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特周五称，需要看到通胀正在回落的令人信服的证据，包括连续几个月的数据下降，才能得出通胀已经见顶的结论。如果通胀不降温，可能支持9月加息50个基点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, June 3, Eastern Time, the 2022 voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester expressed his support for a rate hike of 50 basis points in the coming months because it did not see enough evidence that inflation had peaked.</p><p>I still tend to favor the FOMC rate hike 50 basis points in June and July, respectively. If inflation fails to pull back, I would support a further FOMC rate hike of 50 basis points in September. On Friday, an earlier article on Wall Street mentioned that the U.S. Department of Labor released the May non-farm payrolls report. The data showed that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 390,000 in May, exceeding the expected 320,000, but inferior to the previous value of 428,000 in April, and the smallest increase in 13 months since April 2021. The analysis pointed out that the slowdown in wage growth helped ease inflation, and the data showed that the labor market remained tight. When talking about the latest non-farm data, Meister said:</p><p>The (latest non-farm) payrolls report is strong, and the slowdown in wage growth is also a good thing. Hope to see some correction in the job market. Hopefully, there is convincing evidence of a downward trend in inflation in the United States. While other recent data points show that at least the pace at which inflation has risen has softened, Mester said she needs to see the trend continue for many months before she can really have peace of mind:</p><p>I don't want to declare victory for inflation until I see truly compelling evidence that our actions are starting to play a role in bringing declining demand into better balance with aggregate supply. It is too early to say that this will change our outlook or my policy outlook, the number one problem in the economy remains very high inflation, which has been well above acceptable levels, and that must be our focus in the future. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in early May and hinted at a similar magnitude of rate hike in June and July to quickly move rates to levels that neither stimulate nor slow the economy. Minutes from the Fed's May meeting show that officials are more open about what to do in September, which will depend on inflation.</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic recently said that if inflation falls faster than expected in the summer, the Fed may consider suspending the rate hike in September, which attracted a strong market reaction. However, Bostic, who put forward the idea of \"suspending the rate hike in September\" last week, clearly clarified this week that the view had nothing to do with bailing out the market.</p><p>However, Fed Governor Waller, who has always had voting rights at FOMC meetings during his tenure, dismissed claims of suspending rate hike in September, saying he was inclined to rate hike 50 basis points in the next \"few meetings.\" After the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed suspension of rate hike in September, the market, which is just starting to rise, expects \"fever\". On Thursday, Brainard, the No. 2 person of the Federal Reserve, also said that \"it is difficult to find a reason to suspend the rate hike in September\".</p><p>Mester, a hawk at the Fed, said in mid-May that the possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September was on the agenda again. However, Mester's comments on Thursday and Friday showed a slight change, saying on Thursday:</p><p>If, by the FOMC meeting in September, the monthly inflation numbers provide compelling evidence that inflation is falling, the pace of rate hike may slow; If inflation fails to moderate, then it may be necessary to accelerate the pace of rate hike. However, Mester also warned that the risk of a recession in the United States is increasing, but a sharp economic slowdown can still be avoided.</p><p>Fed officials will hold their next policy meeting two weeks later on June 14 and 15.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Senior Fed Hawkish Official: Inflation Has Not Peaked, Several 50bp rate hike Are Needed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSenior Fed Hawkish Official: Inflation Has Not Peaked, Several 50bp rate hike Are Needed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 05:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, June 3, Eastern Time, the 2022 voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester expressed his support for a rate hike of 50 basis points in the coming months because it did not see enough evidence that inflation had peaked.</p><p>I still tend to favor the FOMC rate hike 50 basis points in June and July, respectively. If inflation fails to pull back, I would support a further FOMC rate hike of 50 basis points in September. On Friday, an earlier article on Wall Street mentioned that the U.S. Department of Labor released the May non-farm payrolls report. The data showed that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 390,000 in May, exceeding the expected 320,000, but inferior to the previous value of 428,000 in April, and the smallest increase in 13 months since April 2021. The analysis pointed out that the slowdown in wage growth helped ease inflation, and the data showed that the labor market remained tight. When talking about the latest non-farm data, Meister said:</p><p>The (latest non-farm) payrolls report is strong, and the slowdown in wage growth is also a good thing. Hope to see some correction in the job market. Hopefully, there is convincing evidence of a downward trend in inflation in the United States. While other recent data points show that at least the pace at which inflation has risen has softened, Mester said she needs to see the trend continue for many months before she can really have peace of mind:</p><p>I don't want to declare victory for inflation until I see truly compelling evidence that our actions are starting to play a role in bringing declining demand into better balance with aggregate supply. It is too early to say that this will change our outlook or my policy outlook, the number one problem in the economy remains very high inflation, which has been well above acceptable levels, and that must be our focus in the future. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in early May and hinted at a similar magnitude of rate hike in June and July to quickly move rates to levels that neither stimulate nor slow the economy. Minutes from the Fed's May meeting show that officials are more open about what to do in September, which will depend on inflation.</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic recently said that if inflation falls faster than expected in the summer, the Fed may consider suspending the rate hike in September, which attracted a strong market reaction. However, Bostic, who put forward the idea of \"suspending the rate hike in September\" last week, clearly clarified this week that the view had nothing to do with bailing out the market.</p><p>However, Fed Governor Waller, who has always had voting rights at FOMC meetings during his tenure, dismissed claims of suspending rate hike in September, saying he was inclined to rate hike 50 basis points in the next \"few meetings.\" After the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed suspension of rate hike in September, the market, which is just starting to rise, expects \"fever\". On Thursday, Brainard, the No. 2 person of the Federal Reserve, also said that \"it is difficult to find a reason to suspend the rate hike in September\".</p><p>Mester, a hawk at the Fed, said in mid-May that the possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September was on the agenda again. However, Mester's comments on Thursday and Friday showed a slight change, saying on Thursday:</p><p>If, by the FOMC meeting in September, the monthly inflation numbers provide compelling evidence that inflation is falling, the pace of rate hike may slow; If inflation fails to moderate, then it may be necessary to accelerate the pace of rate hike. However, Mester also warned that the risk of a recession in the United States is increasing, but a sharp economic slowdown can still be avoided.</p><p>Fed officials will hold their next policy meeting two weeks later on June 14 and 15.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661072\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661072","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240203501","content_text":"美东时间6月3日周五，2022年票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特表示其支持在未来几个月加息50个基点，因为其并没有看到足够的证据表明通胀已经见顶。我仍然倾向于支持FOMC在6月和7月分别加息50个基点。如果通胀没能回落，我将支持FOMC在9月份进一步加息50个基点。周五，华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及美国劳工部发布5月非农就业报告，数据显示，美国5月非农就业新增39万，超过预期的32万人，但逊于4月前值的42.8万人，并创2021年4月以来的13个月最小增幅。分析指出，薪资增幅放缓有助于缓解通胀，数据显示劳动力市场依旧趋紧。梅斯特在谈及最新出炉的非农数据时表示：（最新发布的非农）就业报告是强劲的，薪资增速放缓也是好事。 希望看到就业市场在一定程度上出现回调。希望有令人信服的证据表明美国出现通胀下滑趋势。虽然最近的其他数据点显示，至少通胀上升的速度已经减弱，但梅斯特表示，她需要看到这种趋势延续多个月后才能真正安心：在我看到真正令人信服的证据表明我们的行动开始在使需求下降与总供给更好地平衡方面发挥作用之前，我不想宣布通胀的胜利。现在说这将改变我们的前景或我的政策前景还太早，经济中的头号问题仍然是非常高的通货膨胀，已远远高于可接受的水平，这必须是我们未来的重点。美联储在5月初将基准利率上调了50个基点，并暗示将在6月和7月进行类似幅度的加息，以迅速将利率调至既不刺激、也不放缓经济的水平。美联储5月份会议的纪要显示，官员们对于9月份采取何种行动持更加开放的态度，将根据通货膨胀的情况而定。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克近期表示如果夏季通胀下降速度快于预期，美联储可能考虑在9月暂停加息后，引来市场强烈的反应。不过上周提出“9月暂停加息”观点的博斯蒂克这周明确澄清，观点与救助市场无关。不过，在任内始终拥有FOMC会议投票权的美联储理事沃勒驳斥了9月暂停加息的说法，称他倾向于在接下来的“几次会议”上加息50基点的鹰派言论后，市场刚刚开始兴起的美联储9月暂停加息预期“退烧”。而本周四美联储二号人物布雷纳德也称，“很难找到9月份暂停加息的理由”。作为美联储鹰派的梅斯特，曾在5月中旬表示9月加息75个基点的可能性被再次提上日程。不过，梅斯特本周四和周五的言论则显示了些许变化，周四她曾表示：如果到9月的联邦公开市场委员会会议上，月度通胀数据提供了令人信服的证据，表明通胀正在下降，那么加息的步伐可能会放缓；如果通胀未能缓和，那么可能有必要加快加息步伐。不过梅斯特也警告称，美国爆发经济衰退的风险正在加重，但经济大幅放缓仍可避免。美联储官员将在两周后的6月14日、15日召开下一次政策会议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPY":1,"IVV":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".DJI":1,"DXD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027774958,"gmtCreate":1654095189574,"gmtModify":1676535393297,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027774958","repostId":"1140335557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140335557","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1654091126,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140335557?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-01 21:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SaaS Concept Stocks Move Higher, Salesforce Gains Over 13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140335557","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月1日，SaaS概念股盘初走高，Salesforce涨超13%，Twilio、Adobe涨超4%，Shopify涨逾3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On June 1st, SaaS concept stocks rose at the beginning of the session,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>Up more than 13%, Twilio,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It rose more than 4%, and Shopify rose more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558b1e537226d979f0494331c3a57adc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SaaS Concept Stocks Move Higher, Salesforce Gains Over 13%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSaaS Concept Stocks Move Higher, Salesforce Gains Over 13%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-01 21:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 1st, SaaS concept stocks rose at the beginning of the session,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>Up more than 13%, Twilio,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It rose more than 4%, and Shopify rose more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558b1e537226d979f0494331c3a57adc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"BK4579":"人工智能","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","CRM":"赛富时"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140335557","content_text":"6月1日，SaaS概念股盘初走高，Salesforce涨超13%，Twilio、Adobe涨超4%，Shopify涨逾3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024804750,"gmtCreate":1653834784670,"gmtModify":1676535348579,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024804750","repostId":"1190142421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190142421","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653795735,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190142421?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-29 11:42","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Does the world's most stock-trading central bank lose a huge loss? What's going on here","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190142421","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年迄今为止，瑞士央行的股票投资回报十分糟糕。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The past few months have been tough for the Swiss National Bank.</p><p>According to media reports, Meyrick Chapman, a former portfolio manager at Elliott Asset Management and a bond strategist at UBS, recently analyzed that the SNB's stock investment returns so far this year have been very poor,<b>The damage could amount to around 75 billion Swiss francs ($78 billion), or about 10 percent of Switzerland's GDP.</b></p><p><b>Losses on bonds may be even more shocking. He expects a troubling first half for the SNB if bond prices fall as much in the second quarter of this year as they did in the first quarter, which could lose 120 billion Swiss francs, or 16% of GDP, if the stock market does not recover.</b></p><p>But even with investment losses, the central bank still sits on a good return and has achieved its goal of controlling the currency exchange rate.</p><p>Are such huge losses terrible?</p><p>In fact, these losses from the SNB have had little impact on the country, as the large amount of overseas assets held by the central bank provide a buffer.</p><p><b>The SNB's long-term gains from the stock market far outweigh those losses and the meager interest it offers to Swiss savers.</b>While central banks such as the Bank of England and the RBA have to admit that quantitative easing policies have cost them heavily, the SNB is in a much safer position.</p><p>Meyrick Chapman estimates that the SNB's investment profits stood at about $90 billion at the end of 2021. Although it suffered some damage,<b>But the SNB may still have retained roughly $65 billion in profits, a massive gain that has created a huge financial cushion for the country.</b></p><p><b>The first choice for SNB investment is to buy Eurobonds. But as market demand for the Swiss franc surged, the SNB set its sights on assets abroad, buying bonds and stocks in the U.S. and elsewhere. As a result, foreign demand for Swiss francs is converted into SNB assets.</b></p><p>This made Switzerland a lot of money. But for the most part, the inflow of deposits means liabilities, which the SNB policy aims to offset with overseas assets, with the aim of preventing further appreciation of the Swiss franc, rather than just making money.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank's policies are very different from those of other countries</p><p>The Swiss National Bank has been struggling with the appreciation of its currency, and although the central bank's policies are very different from those of other countries, they have likewise contributed to the explosive expansion of its balance sheet.</p><p>Before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, the Swiss National Bank had only 80 billion Swiss francs in foreign exchange reserves. Today, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves are just over 1 trillion Swiss francs, or $1.04 trillion.</p><p>The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan or the Bank of England, among others, all buy assets to increase liquidity in their economies. These buying sprees were fueled by the issuance of new currencies, which in turn were deposited in the banking system as reserves.</p><p>By contrast, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves grew 12-fold as a result of its fight against the franc's wild appreciation.<b>Swiss investors investing at home, as well as foreigners seeking refuge in the eurozone crisis, have pushed up the Swiss currency, which many see as the ultimate \"safe haven\".</b></p><p><b>Thus, a Swiss version of the quantitative easing policy was born, in which newly issued Swiss francs were sold to investors who used them as safe havens, and the proceeds were used to buy foreign assets.</b></p><p>At its meeting that month, the SNB said:</p><p>The SNB will retain its expansionary monetary policy. It keeps the policy rate and demand deposit rate at the central bank at-0.75% and is willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary,<b>In response to upward pressure on the Swiss franc.</b>In doing so, it takes into account the overall monetary situation and the difference in inflation rates with other countries. The exchange rate of the Swiss franc remains high. Against the backdrop of a strong increase in uncertainty worldwide caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the SNB ensures price stability and supports the Swiss economy through its monetary policy. Up to now, the exchange rate of the Swiss franc is reported at 1.04 US dollars per Swiss franc, which is slightly lower than a year ago. At one point in early March, the Swiss franc was pushed to parity with the euro.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9a3baf28e6eece77f4fedc80c5f385\" tg-width=\"1364\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Therefore, the SNB will continue to focus its policy on buying foreign assets for the foreseeable future. If the Swiss franc continues to face upward pressure, the SNB is likely to buy more. After all, the policy has worked.</b></p><p>The SNB is legally restricted from paying Dividend of up to 6%, so it cannot easily give up profits. Since 2010, the central bank has increased its excess reserves based on the size of its assets, which sets the SNB apart from other central banks. Other central banks have relatively small excess reserves, which are likely to decrease rapidly as \"quantitative tightening\" evolves.</p><p><b>Analysts believe that market logic is good for the Swiss National Bank.</b>Losses in bonds and stocks are usually linked to an appreciation of the US dollar, which, although harming the Swiss National's foreign exchange reserves, is good for the Swiss National Bank no matter which direction it moves.<b>When the Swiss franc appreciates, the SNB's reserve assets appreciate; When its reserve assets depreciate, the Swiss franc depreciates accordingly-which is exactly what the SNB wants to control.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does the world's most stock-trading central bank lose a huge loss? What's going on here</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes the world's most stock-trading central bank lose a huge loss? What's going on here\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-29 11:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The past few months have been tough for the Swiss National Bank.</p><p>According to media reports, Meyrick Chapman, a former portfolio manager at Elliott Asset Management and a bond strategist at UBS, recently analyzed that the SNB's stock investment returns so far this year have been very poor,<b>The damage could amount to around 75 billion Swiss francs ($78 billion), or about 10 percent of Switzerland's GDP.</b></p><p><b>Losses on bonds may be even more shocking. He expects a troubling first half for the SNB if bond prices fall as much in the second quarter of this year as they did in the first quarter, which could lose 120 billion Swiss francs, or 16% of GDP, if the stock market does not recover.</b></p><p>But even with investment losses, the central bank still sits on a good return and has achieved its goal of controlling the currency exchange rate.</p><p>Are such huge losses terrible?</p><p>In fact, these losses from the SNB have had little impact on the country, as the large amount of overseas assets held by the central bank provide a buffer.</p><p><b>The SNB's long-term gains from the stock market far outweigh those losses and the meager interest it offers to Swiss savers.</b>While central banks such as the Bank of England and the RBA have to admit that quantitative easing policies have cost them heavily, the SNB is in a much safer position.</p><p>Meyrick Chapman estimates that the SNB's investment profits stood at about $90 billion at the end of 2021. Although it suffered some damage,<b>But the SNB may still have retained roughly $65 billion in profits, a massive gain that has created a huge financial cushion for the country.</b></p><p><b>The first choice for SNB investment is to buy Eurobonds. But as market demand for the Swiss franc surged, the SNB set its sights on assets abroad, buying bonds and stocks in the U.S. and elsewhere. As a result, foreign demand for Swiss francs is converted into SNB assets.</b></p><p>This made Switzerland a lot of money. But for the most part, the inflow of deposits means liabilities, which the SNB policy aims to offset with overseas assets, with the aim of preventing further appreciation of the Swiss franc, rather than just making money.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank's policies are very different from those of other countries</p><p>The Swiss National Bank has been struggling with the appreciation of its currency, and although the central bank's policies are very different from those of other countries, they have likewise contributed to the explosive expansion of its balance sheet.</p><p>Before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, the Swiss National Bank had only 80 billion Swiss francs in foreign exchange reserves. Today, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves are just over 1 trillion Swiss francs, or $1.04 trillion.</p><p>The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan or the Bank of England, among others, all buy assets to increase liquidity in their economies. These buying sprees were fueled by the issuance of new currencies, which in turn were deposited in the banking system as reserves.</p><p>By contrast, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves grew 12-fold as a result of its fight against the franc's wild appreciation.<b>Swiss investors investing at home, as well as foreigners seeking refuge in the eurozone crisis, have pushed up the Swiss currency, which many see as the ultimate \"safe haven\".</b></p><p><b>Thus, a Swiss version of the quantitative easing policy was born, in which newly issued Swiss francs were sold to investors who used them as safe havens, and the proceeds were used to buy foreign assets.</b></p><p>At its meeting that month, the SNB said:</p><p>The SNB will retain its expansionary monetary policy. It keeps the policy rate and demand deposit rate at the central bank at-0.75% and is willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary,<b>In response to upward pressure on the Swiss franc.</b>In doing so, it takes into account the overall monetary situation and the difference in inflation rates with other countries. The exchange rate of the Swiss franc remains high. Against the backdrop of a strong increase in uncertainty worldwide caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the SNB ensures price stability and supports the Swiss economy through its monetary policy. Up to now, the exchange rate of the Swiss franc is reported at 1.04 US dollars per Swiss franc, which is slightly lower than a year ago. At one point in early March, the Swiss franc was pushed to parity with the euro.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9a3baf28e6eece77f4fedc80c5f385\" tg-width=\"1364\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Therefore, the SNB will continue to focus its policy on buying foreign assets for the foreseeable future. If the Swiss franc continues to face upward pressure, the SNB is likely to buy more. After all, the policy has worked.</b></p><p>The SNB is legally restricted from paying Dividend of up to 6%, so it cannot easily give up profits. Since 2010, the central bank has increased its excess reserves based on the size of its assets, which sets the SNB apart from other central banks. Other central banks have relatively small excess reserves, which are likely to decrease rapidly as \"quantitative tightening\" evolves.</p><p><b>Analysts believe that market logic is good for the Swiss National Bank.</b>Losses in bonds and stocks are usually linked to an appreciation of the US dollar, which, although harming the Swiss National's foreign exchange reserves, is good for the Swiss National Bank no matter which direction it moves.<b>When the Swiss franc appreciates, the SNB's reserve assets appreciate; When its reserve assets depreciate, the Swiss franc depreciates accordingly-which is exactly what the SNB wants to control.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660564\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ef1080a7350c830e3b86dc8bf24737","relate_stocks":{"EWL":"瑞士ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660564","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1190142421","content_text":"过去几个月对瑞士央行来说十分难捱。据媒体报道，曾任 Elliott 资产管理公司投资组合经理和瑞银债券策略师的 Meyrick Chapman 最近分析认为，今年迄今为止，瑞士央行的股票投资回报十分糟糕，损失可能达到750亿瑞士法郎（合780亿美元）左右，大约相当于瑞士GDP的10%。债券的损失可能更为触目惊心。他预计，如果债券价格在今年第二季度的跌幅与第一季度一样大，瑞士央行上半年的情况将令人不安，如果股市没有复苏，该央行可能会损失1200亿瑞郎，相当于GDP的16%。不过即便遭遇投资亏损，该央行仍然坐拥丰厚回报，并且实现了其控制货币汇率的目标。这种巨额亏损可怕吗？事实上，瑞士央行的这些亏损对该国影响并不大，因为该央行持有的大量海外资产提供了缓冲。瑞士央行从股市中获得的长期收益远远超过这些损失和向瑞士储户提供的微薄利息。尽管英国央行和澳大利亚央行等央行不得不承认量化宽松政策使其遭受重大损失，但瑞士央行的处境要相对安全很多。Meyrick Chapman 估计，截至2021年底，瑞士央行的投资利润约为900亿美元。虽然遭遇了一些破坏，但瑞士央行仍可能保留了大约650亿美元的利润，这笔巨额收益为该国带来了巨大的金融缓冲。瑞士央行投资的首选是购买欧洲债券。但随着市场对瑞士法郎的需求激增，瑞士央行将目光投向了海外资产，在美国和其他地区购买债券和股票。因此，外国对瑞士法郎的需求被转换成了瑞士央行的资产。这让瑞士赚得盆满钵满。但从很大程度上来讲，存款的流入意味着负债，瑞士央行的政策旨在用海外资产来抵消这种负债，其目的是防止瑞士法郎进一步升值，而不仅仅是赚钱。瑞士央行的政策与其他国家的截然不同瑞士央行一直在与其货币升值作斗争，尽管该央行的政策与其他国家的政策截然不同，但同样导致了资产负债表的爆炸性扩张。在雷曼兄弟破产以及随后爆发的欧元区主权债务危机之前，瑞士央行的外汇储备只有800亿瑞郎。如今，瑞士央行的外汇储备已经略高于1万亿瑞郎，合1.04万亿美元。美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行或英国央行等都通过购买资产来增加本国经济的流动性。这些购买狂潮是通过发行新的货币来推动的，而这些新的货币又作为准备金存入银行系统。相比之下，瑞士央行外汇储备增长了12倍，是其对抗瑞士法郎疯狂升值的结果。投资于国内的瑞士投资者，以及在欧元区危机中寻求庇护的外国人推高了被许多人视为终极“避风港”的瑞士货币。于是，一个瑞士版的量化宽松政策诞生了，新发行的瑞士法郎被卖给了那些用于避险的投资者，而所得的收益则被用来购买外国资产。在当月的会议上，瑞士央行表示：瑞士央行将保留其扩张性的货币政策。它将政策利率和在央行的活期存款利率保持在-0.75%，并愿意在必要时干预外汇市场，以应对瑞士法郎的上涨压力。在这样做的时候，它考虑到了整体货币形势和与其他国家的通胀率差异。瑞士法郎的汇率仍然很高。俄乌危机导致全世界的不确定性强烈增加，在此背景下，瑞士央行通过其货币政策确保价格稳定并支持瑞士经济。截至目前，瑞士法郎汇率报1瑞士法郎兑1.04美元，相比一年前小幅下跌。在3月初，瑞士法郎一度被推高至与欧元平价的水平。因此，在可预见的未来，瑞士央行仍将把政策重点放在购买外国资产上。如果瑞士法郎继续面临上涨压力，瑞士央行可能会购买更多。毕竟，这项政策已经奏效。瑞士央行在法律上被限制支付最高6%的股息，因此它不能轻易放弃利润。自2010年以来，该央行已根据资产规模增加超额准备金，这使瑞士央行有别于其他央行。其他央行的超额准备金相对较少，随着“量化紧缩”的演变，这些超额准备金可能会迅速减少。分析人士认为，市场逻辑对瑞士央行有利。债券和股票的损失通常与美元升值挂钩，美元升值虽然会损害瑞士央行的外汇储备，但无论其在哪个方向变动，对瑞士央行都是有好处的。当瑞士法郎升值时，瑞士央行的储备资产就会升值；当其储备资产贬值时，瑞士法郎就会相应贬值——这也正是瑞士央行想要控制的目标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022102401,"gmtCreate":1653486573603,"gmtModify":1676535290658,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022102401","repostId":"1141527844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141527844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653482792,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141527844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-25 20:46","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Nio self-developed battery cells, will it be negative for Ningde era?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141527844","media":"第一财经","summary":"整车厂不想只给上游“打工”了。5月25日，上海企事业单位环境信息公开平台显示，上海蔚来汽车有限公司拟投资2.185亿元，计划在上海市嘉定区安亭镇新建研发项目，包括从事锂离子电芯和电池包研发的31个研发","content":"<p><div>OEMs don't want to just \"work\" for the upstream. On May 25th, the environmental information disclosure platform of Shanghai enterprises and institutions showed that Shanghai Nio Automobile Co., Ltd. plans to invest 218.5 million yuan, and plans to build a new R&D project in Anting Town, Jiading District, Shanghai, including 31 R&D laboratories engaged in the R&D of lithium-ion batteries and battery packs, as well as one lithium-ion battery trial production line and one battery pack pack line, which are expected to be constructed from August to October this year. Some insiders believe that this means that Nio has begun to develop its own battery cells to prepare for self-research, self-production and self-use power batteries. But whether it will research and produce its own battery cells, Nio Automobile...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nio self-developed battery cells, will it be negative for Ningde era?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNio self-developed battery cells, will it be negative for Ningde era?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-25 20:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>OEMs don't want to just \"work\" for the upstream. On May 25th, the environmental information disclosure platform of Shanghai enterprises and institutions showed that Shanghai Nio Automobile Co., Ltd. plans to invest 218.5 million yuan, and plans to build a new R&D project in Anting Town, Jiading District, Shanghai, including 31 R&D laboratories engaged in the R&D of lithium-ion batteries and battery packs, as well as one lithium-ion battery trial production line and one battery pack pack line, which are expected to be constructed from August to October this year. Some insiders believe that this means that Nio has begun to develop its own battery cells to prepare for self-research, self-production and self-use power batteries. But whether it will research and produce its own battery cells, Nio Automobile...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e93e082b7ec44c8b12bf8070e53a73ef","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141527844","content_text":"整车厂不想只给上游“打工”了。5月25日，上海企事业单位环境信息公开平台显示，上海蔚来汽车有限公司拟投资2.185亿元，计划在上海市嘉定区安亭镇新建研发项目，包括从事锂离子电芯和电池包研发的31个研发实验室，以及1条锂离子电芯试制线和1条电池包pack线，预计今年8月至10月期间施工。有业内人士认为，这意味着蔚来开始自研电芯，为自研、自产、自用动力电池做好准备。但就是否会自研、自产电芯，蔚来汽车方面暂未对第一财经记者做出回复。不过在建设项目工程分析中，蔚来汽车明确表示，本项目试制线的建设拟为后续发展过程中可能的规模化生产做好前期探索，试制样品用于后续深度开发。早在2021年9月，蔚来就发布了自研动力电池包。该电池包采用了三元锂与磷酸铁锂电芯混合排布的方式，蔚来方面称之为“三元铁锂”电池，并拥有其相关发明专利。但值得注意的是，该电池包中的三元锂电芯和磷酸铁锂电芯供应商均为宁德时代。目前蔚来汽车共拥有宁德时代和卫蓝新能源两家动力电池供应商，但卫蓝新能源主打半固态及固态电池，尚未进入量产阶段，目前蔚来所有在售产品上使用的动力电池电芯均由宁德时代提供。起点研究院（SPIR）统计数据显示，2021年蔚来汽车是宁德时代第二大客户，仅次于特斯拉。小鹏汽车则是宁德时代第三大客户，约80%的动力电池供应来自于宁德时代。此外，宁德时代还是理想汽车的独家供应商。中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据显示，宁德时代的市占率已经连续两年在50%以上，占据了中国动力电池的半壁江山。但仅依靠宁德时代供应动力电池，已给部分新能源车企带来了风险。早前由于电池供应问题，小鹏部分车型出现延期交付的情况，进而发生用户维权事件；蔚来汽车创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在去年3月财报电话会议中亦表示，当年二季度的电池供应是其最大瓶颈。汽车行业研究员张翔在接受媒体采访时曾表示，“宁德时代的产能有限，不可能满足那么多车企的供应需求，那么车企就不得不找别的供应商。”他认为，超过50%的市场份额让宁德时代话语权过大，这并非车企乐意看到的。随着新能源汽车销量规模的持续扩大，动力电池涨价和缺货已成为新能源车企的“切肤之痛”。此外亦有报道显示，车企不满宁德时代较为强势的态度，多家车企已经开始布局在宁德时代之外的“备选方案”。5月23日的财报电话会上，小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏称，小鹏汽车从去年下半年开始一直在引入更多的电池合作伙伴，期望有更多电池合作伙伴，解决之前由于缺乏电池而导致产能不足的问题。今年2月24日，蔚来关联企业蔚瑞投资投资欣旺达电池，出资2.5亿，持股2%。3月27日，广汽埃安总经理古惠南对媒体表示，埃安电池试制线将于今年年底投入运营，目标实现自己掌握核心技术，并仍将与上游锂电公司保持合作。近期蔚来的环评报告亦显示了蔚来有意布局电芯、电池包等技术的自研。中关村新型电池技术创新联盟秘书长、电池百人会理事长于清教向第一财经记者表示，电池供应商一家独大风险过高；其次随着市场空间的扩大，整车厂不想只给上游“打工”了，也试图去改变宁德时代的垄断局面和争夺相应的定价权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"09866":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026832540,"gmtCreate":1653353034380,"gmtModify":1676535265971,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026832540","repostId":"2237366551","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237366551","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653348675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237366551?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 07:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Snap Plunges Nearly 30% After Hours! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237366551","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"“阅后即焚”通信应用Snapchat母公司Snap CEOEvan Speigel周一在给员工的一份报告中警告称，该公司二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标。该公司股价闻讯在美股盘后暴跌近30%。　　Speigel称，该社交媒体公司也将在今年年底前放缓招聘，因希望管理开支。　　Snap 4月份公布的一季度财报不及华尔街预期。　　Spiegel表示，Snap将继续招聘新员工，但将在今年余下时间放慢招聘步伐。他仍预计Snap将在今年年底前雇佣500名新员工。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Evan Speigel, CEO of Snap, the parent company of Snapchat, the \"burn-after-read\" messaging app, warned in a note to employees on Monday that the company will miss its revenue and adjusted earnings targets in the second quarter. The company's shares plunged nearly 30% after U.S. stocks heard the news.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27f342547eeac7599070c0d8f2a01ce9\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Speigel said the social media company will also slow hiring by the end of the year as it looks to manage expenses. A portion of this letter was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).</p><p>Spiegel wrote: \"Today we filed an 8-K report indicating that the macro environment is deteriorating much faster than we expected when we issued our quarterly guidance last month. So while our revenue continues to grow year over year, it is growing at a slower pace than we currently expect.\"</p><p>Snap reported first-quarter earnings in April that fell short of Wall Street expectations. At the time, the company said it expected second-quarter revenue to rise 20% to 25% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) between $0 and $50 million.</p><p>\"We believe that we will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of the guidance range,\" Spiegel wrote in an update on Monday.</p><p>Spiegel said Snap will continue to hire new employees but will slow its hiring pace for the rest of the year. He still expects Snap to hire 500 new employees by the end of the year. The company has employed about 2,000 people in the last 12 months.</p><p>Spiegel said the company is facing rising inflation and interest rates, supply chain shortages, labor disruptions and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Platform policy changes such as iPhone privacy features. The Russia-Ukraine conflict also has negative effects.</p><p>Snap shares are down more than 50% year-to-date as of Monday's close, with the S&P 500 down 17% over the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f950e882674a02cf20f6eb2c6293771\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap Plunges Nearly 30% After Hours! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap Plunges Nearly 30% After Hours! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-24 07:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Evan Speigel, CEO of Snap, the parent company of Snapchat, the \"burn-after-read\" messaging app, warned in a note to employees on Monday that the company will miss its revenue and adjusted earnings targets in the second quarter. The company's shares plunged nearly 30% after U.S. stocks heard the news.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27f342547eeac7599070c0d8f2a01ce9\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Speigel said the social media company will also slow hiring by the end of the year as it looks to manage expenses. A portion of this letter was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).</p><p>Spiegel wrote: \"Today we filed an 8-K report indicating that the macro environment is deteriorating much faster than we expected when we issued our quarterly guidance last month. So while our revenue continues to grow year over year, it is growing at a slower pace than we currently expect.\"</p><p>Snap reported first-quarter earnings in April that fell short of Wall Street expectations. At the time, the company said it expected second-quarter revenue to rise 20% to 25% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) between $0 and $50 million.</p><p>\"We believe that we will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of the guidance range,\" Spiegel wrote in an update on Monday.</p><p>Spiegel said Snap will continue to hire new employees but will slow its hiring pace for the rest of the year. He still expects Snap to hire 500 new employees by the end of the year. The company has employed about 2,000 people in the last 12 months.</p><p>Spiegel said the company is facing rising inflation and interest rates, supply chain shortages, labor disruptions and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Platform policy changes such as iPhone privacy features. The Russia-Ukraine conflict also has negative effects.</p><p>Snap shares are down more than 50% year-to-date as of Monday's close, with the S&P 500 down 17% over the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f950e882674a02cf20f6eb2c6293771\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-24/doc-imizirau4427372.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69a4e4c29b9a3b2171a004f6fa3e490","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4574":"无人驾驶","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4573":"虚拟现实","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","AAPL":"苹果","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4575":"芯片概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-24/doc-imizirau4427372.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2237366551","content_text":"“阅后即焚”通信应用Snapchat母公司Snap CEO Evan Speigel周一在给员工的一份报告中警告称，该公司二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标。该公司股价闻讯在美股盘后暴跌近30%。Speigel称，该社交媒体公司也将在今年年底前放缓招聘，因希望管理开支。这封信的一部分已提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）。Spiegel写道：“今天我们提交了一份8-K报告，表明宏观环境恶化的速度比我们上个月发布季度指引时的预期要快得多。因此，虽然我们的收入继续同比增长，但增长速度比我们目前预期的要慢。”Snap 4月份公布的一季度财报不及华尔街预期。当时该公司表示，预计二季度收入将同比增长20%至25%，调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）在0至5000万美元之间。Spiegel在周一的更新报告中写道：“我们认为，我们将报告的收入和调整后EBITDA会低于指导范围的低端。”Spiegel表示，Snap将继续招聘新员工，但将在今年余下时间放慢招聘步伐。他仍预计Snap将在今年年底前雇佣500名新员工。该公司在过去12个月内雇佣了约2000名员工。Spiegel称，该公司正面临着通胀和利率上升、供应链短缺、劳动力中断以及苹果iPhone隐私功能等平台政策变化。俄乌冲突也有负面影响。截至周一收盘，Snap股价今年迄今下跌超过50%，标普500指数同期下跌17%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":0.82,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,"OEF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026832845,"gmtCreate":1653353024987,"gmtModify":1676535265813,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026832845","repostId":"2237366551","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237366551","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653348675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237366551?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 07:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Snap Plunges Nearly 30% After Hours! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237366551","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"“阅后即焚”通信应用Snapchat母公司Snap CEOEvan Speigel周一在给员工的一份报告中警告称，该公司二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标。该公司股价闻讯在美股盘后暴跌近30%。　　Speigel称，该社交媒体公司也将在今年年底前放缓招聘，因希望管理开支。　　Snap 4月份公布的一季度财报不及华尔街预期。　　Spiegel表示，Snap将继续招聘新员工，但将在今年余下时间放慢招聘步伐。他仍预计Snap将在今年年底前雇佣500名新员工。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Evan Speigel, CEO of Snap, the parent company of Snapchat, the \"burn-after-read\" messaging app, warned in a note to employees on Monday that the company will miss its revenue and adjusted earnings targets in the second quarter. The company's shares plunged nearly 30% after U.S. stocks heard the news.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27f342547eeac7599070c0d8f2a01ce9\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Speigel said the social media company will also slow hiring by the end of the year as it looks to manage expenses. A portion of this letter was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).</p><p>Spiegel wrote: \"Today we filed an 8-K report indicating that the macro environment is deteriorating much faster than we expected when we issued our quarterly guidance last month. So while our revenue continues to grow year over year, it is growing at a slower pace than we currently expect.\"</p><p>Snap reported first-quarter earnings in April that fell short of Wall Street expectations. At the time, the company said it expected second-quarter revenue to rise 20% to 25% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) between $0 and $50 million.</p><p>\"We believe that we will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of the guidance range,\" Spiegel wrote in an update on Monday.</p><p>Spiegel said Snap will continue to hire new employees but will slow its hiring pace for the rest of the year. He still expects Snap to hire 500 new employees by the end of the year. The company has employed about 2,000 people in the last 12 months.</p><p>Spiegel said the company is facing rising inflation and interest rates, supply chain shortages, labor disruptions and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Platform policy changes such as iPhone privacy features. The Russia-Ukraine conflict also has negative effects.</p><p>Snap shares are down more than 50% year-to-date as of Monday's close, with the S&P 500 down 17% over the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f950e882674a02cf20f6eb2c6293771\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap Plunges Nearly 30% After Hours! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap Plunges Nearly 30% After Hours! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-24 07:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Evan Speigel, CEO of Snap, the parent company of Snapchat, the \"burn-after-read\" messaging app, warned in a note to employees on Monday that the company will miss its revenue and adjusted earnings targets in the second quarter. The company's shares plunged nearly 30% after U.S. stocks heard the news.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27f342547eeac7599070c0d8f2a01ce9\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Speigel said the social media company will also slow hiring by the end of the year as it looks to manage expenses. A portion of this letter was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).</p><p>Spiegel wrote: \"Today we filed an 8-K report indicating that the macro environment is deteriorating much faster than we expected when we issued our quarterly guidance last month. So while our revenue continues to grow year over year, it is growing at a slower pace than we currently expect.\"</p><p>Snap reported first-quarter earnings in April that fell short of Wall Street expectations. At the time, the company said it expected second-quarter revenue to rise 20% to 25% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) between $0 and $50 million.</p><p>\"We believe that we will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of the guidance range,\" Spiegel wrote in an update on Monday.</p><p>Spiegel said Snap will continue to hire new employees but will slow its hiring pace for the rest of the year. He still expects Snap to hire 500 new employees by the end of the year. The company has employed about 2,000 people in the last 12 months.</p><p>Spiegel said the company is facing rising inflation and interest rates, supply chain shortages, labor disruptions and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Platform policy changes such as iPhone privacy features. The Russia-Ukraine conflict also has negative effects.</p><p>Snap shares are down more than 50% year-to-date as of Monday's close, with the S&P 500 down 17% over the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f950e882674a02cf20f6eb2c6293771\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-24/doc-imizirau4427372.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69a4e4c29b9a3b2171a004f6fa3e490","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4574":"无人驾驶","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4573":"虚拟现实","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","AAPL":"苹果","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4575":"芯片概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-24/doc-imizirau4427372.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2237366551","content_text":"“阅后即焚”通信应用Snapchat母公司Snap CEO Evan Speigel周一在给员工的一份报告中警告称，该公司二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标。该公司股价闻讯在美股盘后暴跌近30%。Speigel称，该社交媒体公司也将在今年年底前放缓招聘，因希望管理开支。这封信的一部分已提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）。Spiegel写道：“今天我们提交了一份8-K报告，表明宏观环境恶化的速度比我们上个月发布季度指引时的预期要快得多。因此，虽然我们的收入继续同比增长，但增长速度比我们目前预期的要慢。”Snap 4月份公布的一季度财报不及华尔街预期。当时该公司表示，预计二季度收入将同比增长20%至25%，调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）在0至5000万美元之间。Spiegel在周一的更新报告中写道：“我们认为，我们将报告的收入和调整后EBITDA会低于指导范围的低端。”Spiegel表示，Snap将继续招聘新员工，但将在今年余下时间放慢招聘步伐。他仍预计Snap将在今年年底前雇佣500名新员工。该公司在过去12个月内雇佣了约2000名员工。Spiegel称，该公司正面临着通胀和利率上升、供应链短缺、劳动力中断以及苹果iPhone隐私功能等平台政策变化。俄乌冲突也有负面影响。截至周一收盘，Snap股价今年迄今下跌超过50%，标普500指数同期下跌17%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":0.82,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,"OEF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026009543,"gmtCreate":1653288035582,"gmtModify":1676535254441,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Risk and opportunity","listText":"Risk and opportunity","text":"Risk and opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026009543","repostId":"1126352915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026009217,"gmtCreate":1653288021939,"gmtModify":1676535254426,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Risk and opportunity","listText":"Risk and opportunity","text":"Risk and opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026009217","repostId":"1126352915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028166073,"gmtCreate":1653185383792,"gmtModify":1676535236334,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028166073","repostId":"1105761866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028168480,"gmtCreate":1653185363040,"gmtModify":1676535236326,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028168480","repostId":"1105761866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021622390,"gmtCreate":1653049612610,"gmtModify":1676535214416,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021622390","repostId":"2236009774","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021622001,"gmtCreate":1653049589003,"gmtModify":1676535214393,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021622001","repostId":"2236009774","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063734054,"gmtCreate":1651534774688,"gmtModify":1676534920219,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063734054","repostId":"1191873408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191873408","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651503299,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191873408?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-02 22:54","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | How to Find the Ideal Trading Entry Slot?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191873408","media":"交易员说","summary":"理想的交易入场位可以使得止损位设置的更加合理，同时也能带来巨大的风险回报比。不过，说起来容易做起来难啊！尽管这些“完美”的交易设置可能并不常见，但这并不意味着它们“难以”被发现。如果你寻找的方法得当，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The ideal trading entry position can make the stop loss position more reasonable, and at the same time, it can also bring a huge risk-reward ratio. However, it's easier said than done!</p><p>Although these \"perfect\" trading setups may not be common, that doesn't mean they're \"hard\" to spot. If you look for the right approach, you can lock in such ideal entry positions and create a better start to the trade.</p><p>Basically, million dollar trader Nial Fuller says there are three steps to find the ideal entry point.</p><p><b>Three keys to finding the \"perfect\" trade entry:</b></p><p>First of all, the easiest way is to look for any obvious price action trading signals on the daily chart because I personally prefer daily chart framework trading. Just remember,<b>Only look for \"obvious\" signals and patterns, and if they are the ones you are very familiar with.</b></p><p>Then look for the trading convergence factors that support these signals on the trading chart. For example, a signal can be consistent with other key prices, or formed after an intra-trend pullback/retracement, which belongs to supporting information.</p><p>Essentially, if you want to find the \"perfect entry point for trading,\" you need to list as many factors as possible that support the signal.</p><p><i><b>1. Find signals, patterns and levels to trade.</b></i></p><p><i>It's a bit straightforward, but it's also a skill to develop and refine. In this article, we will use pin bar entry signals and Tailed bar entry signals.</i></p><p><i><b>2. Look for entry \"filters\" and convergence factors, as well as factors supporting trading signals.</b></i></p><p><i>Examples include strong trends, key horizontal support and resistance levels, 50% swing pullback/retracement levels, event zones, and moving averages.</i></p><p><i><b>3. Entry position adjustment and skills</b></i><i>。</i></p><p><i>For example, the 50% of the signal candlestick itself adjusts the pullback/retracement entry, or simply considers the nearby key level to get a better entry point, so that you can set a more reasonable stop loss level and a wider take-profit space.</i></p><p><b>I do these things every day in order to find the ideal entry spot</b></p><p>After waking up, having eaten a healthy and nutritious breakfast and some more fitness exercises, I started sitting at my computer and watching what was going on during the New York trading session, of course, because I live in Australia myself and woke up just as the previous day's New York market had closed. I would look at forex, stock indexes, major commodity markets to see what happened before and what they do next for Asian and European markets.</p><p>My goal is to quickly see if there are obvious signals or patterns in the frequently traded markets. If I find anything, I will follow the second step above to see if I can find the market structure that supports this trading information, and at the same time judge whether this opportunity is really worth trading. After all, not every discovered signal is suitable for trading.</p><p><b>If a trading signal doesn't have a support confluence, then I probably won't trade it.</b>Of course, if I lock in a signal worth trading, I start to judge whether it meets my trading standards. If so, I will further study the plan, such as how to enter the market better, how to set a stop loss, and when to exit.</p><p><b>Let's look at some cases:</b></p><p><b>Example 1:</b></p><p>In the EUR/USD daily chart below, we can see a clear pin bar short signal, and it looks like there are a lot of convergence factors behind this signal that support him. This will be discussed in the next graph. At present, it is noted that its lower shadow is clearly prominent, which means that the price has seen a large reversal in this area, as well as encountering strong resistance, and suggests that the price may continue to move lower in the next few days. This pin bar signal fits the concept of \"obvious\" and can be seen at a glance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbcf8fafbc04a649633e4ccad7114744\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the chart below, we take a look at what'evidence'is supporting this pin bar signal. In this case, there is absolutely enough evidence to guarantee an entry trade. As shown in the chart below, the market is in a multi-month downtrend and has formed signals near key resistance zones, which themselves carry distinct characteristics. In my opinion, these can all be used as supporting information for it. Next, set up the trade directly and wait for the market to trigger the setting. After that, you can go to a movie to relax. Don't stare at the disk after entering the market and starting trading:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e16b662f6791579d6294a1810883ff\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Next, we zoom in on the pin bar view. We are now focusing on adjusting entry levels and seeing if we can boost the risk-reward potential. Note that in this trade, we could have entered near the 50% pullback/retracement of the pin bar to greatly improve the risk-reward ratio. However, you can still enter somewhere below that 50% pullback/retracement level. In fact, entering at a position close to 50% pullback/retracement in the pin bar has relatively better returns, and we need to be flexible to set the entrance closer to this position. The approximate profit target is 3 to 4 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0da3b3f4abef2d4814fd0fcfec7201\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 2:</b></p><p>Below is the daily chart of the Australian Equity Index SPI 200. Glance at this image and you'll be noticed by the eye-catching pin bar on the chart. It is clearly in line with the level on the daily chart. Then the upper shadow of this pin bar is very prominent, suggesting a sharp price reversal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b82dc8f7cf47fa97af9e06fe3f3a8be\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The following chart switches to the weekly chart. Typically, when a trading signal is found on a daily or 4-hour chart, I check the weekly chart to see how the signal makes sense in the context of a long-term time frame, or if it makes sense.</p><p>In this case, the formation of the pin bar of the daily chart above has a very strong key resistance zone/event area on the weekly chart, as shown in the chart below. It is also in line with the downward trend on the daily and weekly charts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb1453a971e66017e5dd53f078a9959\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, we amplify the pin bar signal on the daily chart. Note that a pullback/retracement/Entry adjustment cannot be made here, but the trade still has a 2x potential profit as the next support comes at a very low price, as shown in the chart below. A trade like this that forms in a key level/event area, coupled with a trend that is consistent, so it is certain that this is a worthy signal to trade, and it may signal a quick and large price swing:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5520c5f8e94866cba0c8188482deef\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 3:</b></p><p>In this example, we will see several bearish tailed bar signals forming on the crude oil daily chart (a tailed bar refers to a candlestick with a tail (hatch) that is longer than the candlestick entity). You can keep an eye out for a very strong downtrend that has formed, and these bearish candlestick signals are formed below and close above the level after the price breaks through the key resistance level. These signals may not be as obvious as in the above example, but given the forces behind the market shorts, it is not difficult for more experienced traders to spot them:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1809c5c61b740bbd170f25c96cc18282\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Once we zoom out the chart view, the signal candlestick size can be clearly seen, as well as the trend that forms. These strong support convergence factors made the deal easily profitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f184c397b415eddfbfeebb3dba0ed3\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Amplifying the signals on the daily chart, we can see that even if the stop loss is just above the first tailed bar high (and above that level), there is still a huge potential risk-reward in this trade because this market is indeed in an \"out-of-control trend\" and the trend is very strong. These types of trends are best for calling up positions as a way to make huge profits. Notice that you can easily make 5x more profits in just one position here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b24f6290e32ea9b018e1485bc9dfad2\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>One of the main points in this article is that,<b>The best trades are supported by multiple confluent factors.</b>In all of the above examples, the trend is very clear and the signal forms at key levels. Once you know and understand what is being looked for, it all falls into place. However, these take some training, time, and developing intuition to really get.</p><p>I want you to remember that the \"intersection\" of signals and levels or signals and trends you are looking for, or even just \"intersections\" of levels and trends, trade like a sniper, and pick those valuable trades to do while doing your homework. All of this becomes easier once you understand how to read the \"money footprint\", i.e. price action, on a chart.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1603977621793","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | How to Find the Ideal Trading Entry Slot?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | How to Find the Ideal Trading Entry Slot?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">交易员说</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-02 22:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The ideal trading entry position can make the stop loss position more reasonable, and at the same time, it can also bring a huge risk-reward ratio. However, it's easier said than done!</p><p>Although these \"perfect\" trading setups may not be common, that doesn't mean they're \"hard\" to spot. If you look for the right approach, you can lock in such ideal entry positions and create a better start to the trade.</p><p>Basically, million dollar trader Nial Fuller says there are three steps to find the ideal entry point.</p><p><b>Three keys to finding the \"perfect\" trade entry:</b></p><p>First of all, the easiest way is to look for any obvious price action trading signals on the daily chart because I personally prefer daily chart framework trading. Just remember,<b>Only look for \"obvious\" signals and patterns, and if they are the ones you are very familiar with.</b></p><p>Then look for the trading convergence factors that support these signals on the trading chart. For example, a signal can be consistent with other key prices, or formed after an intra-trend pullback/retracement, which belongs to supporting information.</p><p>Essentially, if you want to find the \"perfect entry point for trading,\" you need to list as many factors as possible that support the signal.</p><p><i><b>1. Find signals, patterns and levels to trade.</b></i></p><p><i>It's a bit straightforward, but it's also a skill to develop and refine. In this article, we will use pin bar entry signals and Tailed bar entry signals.</i></p><p><i><b>2. Look for entry \"filters\" and convergence factors, as well as factors supporting trading signals.</b></i></p><p><i>Examples include strong trends, key horizontal support and resistance levels, 50% swing pullback/retracement levels, event zones, and moving averages.</i></p><p><i><b>3. Entry position adjustment and skills</b></i><i>。</i></p><p><i>For example, the 50% of the signal candlestick itself adjusts the pullback/retracement entry, or simply considers the nearby key level to get a better entry point, so that you can set a more reasonable stop loss level and a wider take-profit space.</i></p><p><b>I do these things every day in order to find the ideal entry spot</b></p><p>After waking up, having eaten a healthy and nutritious breakfast and some more fitness exercises, I started sitting at my computer and watching what was going on during the New York trading session, of course, because I live in Australia myself and woke up just as the previous day's New York market had closed. I would look at forex, stock indexes, major commodity markets to see what happened before and what they do next for Asian and European markets.</p><p>My goal is to quickly see if there are obvious signals or patterns in the frequently traded markets. If I find anything, I will follow the second step above to see if I can find the market structure that supports this trading information, and at the same time judge whether this opportunity is really worth trading. After all, not every discovered signal is suitable for trading.</p><p><b>If a trading signal doesn't have a support confluence, then I probably won't trade it.</b>Of course, if I lock in a signal worth trading, I start to judge whether it meets my trading standards. If so, I will further study the plan, such as how to enter the market better, how to set a stop loss, and when to exit.</p><p><b>Let's look at some cases:</b></p><p><b>Example 1:</b></p><p>In the EUR/USD daily chart below, we can see a clear pin bar short signal, and it looks like there are a lot of convergence factors behind this signal that support him. This will be discussed in the next graph. At present, it is noted that its lower shadow is clearly prominent, which means that the price has seen a large reversal in this area, as well as encountering strong resistance, and suggests that the price may continue to move lower in the next few days. This pin bar signal fits the concept of \"obvious\" and can be seen at a glance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbcf8fafbc04a649633e4ccad7114744\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the chart below, we take a look at what'evidence'is supporting this pin bar signal. In this case, there is absolutely enough evidence to guarantee an entry trade. As shown in the chart below, the market is in a multi-month downtrend and has formed signals near key resistance zones, which themselves carry distinct characteristics. In my opinion, these can all be used as supporting information for it. Next, set up the trade directly and wait for the market to trigger the setting. After that, you can go to a movie to relax. Don't stare at the disk after entering the market and starting trading:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e16b662f6791579d6294a1810883ff\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Next, we zoom in on the pin bar view. We are now focusing on adjusting entry levels and seeing if we can boost the risk-reward potential. Note that in this trade, we could have entered near the 50% pullback/retracement of the pin bar to greatly improve the risk-reward ratio. However, you can still enter somewhere below that 50% pullback/retracement level. In fact, entering at a position close to 50% pullback/retracement in the pin bar has relatively better returns, and we need to be flexible to set the entrance closer to this position. The approximate profit target is 3 to 4 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0da3b3f4abef2d4814fd0fcfec7201\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 2:</b></p><p>Below is the daily chart of the Australian Equity Index SPI 200. Glance at this image and you'll be noticed by the eye-catching pin bar on the chart. It is clearly in line with the level on the daily chart. Then the upper shadow of this pin bar is very prominent, suggesting a sharp price reversal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b82dc8f7cf47fa97af9e06fe3f3a8be\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The following chart switches to the weekly chart. Typically, when a trading signal is found on a daily or 4-hour chart, I check the weekly chart to see how the signal makes sense in the context of a long-term time frame, or if it makes sense.</p><p>In this case, the formation of the pin bar of the daily chart above has a very strong key resistance zone/event area on the weekly chart, as shown in the chart below. It is also in line with the downward trend on the daily and weekly charts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb1453a971e66017e5dd53f078a9959\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, we amplify the pin bar signal on the daily chart. Note that a pullback/retracement/Entry adjustment cannot be made here, but the trade still has a 2x potential profit as the next support comes at a very low price, as shown in the chart below. A trade like this that forms in a key level/event area, coupled with a trend that is consistent, so it is certain that this is a worthy signal to trade, and it may signal a quick and large price swing:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5520c5f8e94866cba0c8188482deef\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 3:</b></p><p>In this example, we will see several bearish tailed bar signals forming on the crude oil daily chart (a tailed bar refers to a candlestick with a tail (hatch) that is longer than the candlestick entity). You can keep an eye out for a very strong downtrend that has formed, and these bearish candlestick signals are formed below and close above the level after the price breaks through the key resistance level. These signals may not be as obvious as in the above example, but given the forces behind the market shorts, it is not difficult for more experienced traders to spot them:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1809c5c61b740bbd170f25c96cc18282\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Once we zoom out the chart view, the signal candlestick size can be clearly seen, as well as the trend that forms. These strong support convergence factors made the deal easily profitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f184c397b415eddfbfeebb3dba0ed3\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Amplifying the signals on the daily chart, we can see that even if the stop loss is just above the first tailed bar high (and above that level), there is still a huge potential risk-reward in this trade because this market is indeed in an \"out-of-control trend\" and the trend is very strong. These types of trends are best for calling up positions as a way to make huge profits. Notice that you can easily make 5x more profits in just one position here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b24f6290e32ea9b018e1485bc9dfad2\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>One of the main points in this article is that,<b>The best trades are supported by multiple confluent factors.</b>In all of the above examples, the trend is very clear and the signal forms at key levels. Once you know and understand what is being looked for, it all falls into place. However, these take some training, time, and developing intuition to really get.</p><p>I want you to remember that the \"intersection\" of signals and levels or signals and trends you are looking for, or even just \"intersections\" of levels and trends, trade like a sniper, and pick those valuable trades to do while doing your homework. All of this becomes easier once you understand how to read the \"money footprint\", i.e. price action, on a chart.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UItscfbGwpDKw1QVVq6Wjw\">交易员说</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1588":"回港中概股","LI":"理想汽车","BK1587":"次新股","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1539":"汽车股"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UItscfbGwpDKw1QVVq6Wjw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191873408","content_text":"理想的交易入场位可以使得止损位设置的更加合理，同时也能带来巨大的风险回报比。不过，说起来容易做起来难啊！尽管这些“完美”的交易设置可能并不常见，但这并不意味着它们“难以”被发现。如果你寻找的方法得当，就可以锁定这样理想的入场位，为交易创造更好的开端。基本上，百万美金交易员Nial Fuller表示，可使用三个步骤来寻找理想的入场点位。找到“完美”交易入场的三个关键：首先，最简单的方法就是，因为我个人比较喜欢日图框架交易，所以在日线图上寻找任何明显的价格行为交易信号。记住了，只找“很明显”的信号和形态，而且要是自己非常熟悉的那种。接着你要在交易图表上寻找支撑这些信号的交易汇合因素。比如，一个信号能与其他关键价位一致，或者在趋势内回撤后形成，就属于有支撑信息。从本质上讲，如果你想找到“完美的交易入场点”，你需要尽可能多地罗列出支撑信号的因素。1.找到信号、形态、水平进行交易。这有点简单直接，但也是一项需要发展和完善的技能。本文中，我们将使用pin bar入场信号和Tailed bar入场信号。2. 寻找入场“过滤器”和汇合因素，以及支撑交易信号的因素。例如强劲趋势、关键水平支撑和阻力位、50%波动回撤位、事件区域以及移动平均线等。3. 入场位调整和技巧。例如信号烛台自身的50%调整回撤入场，或简单地考虑附近的关键水平以获得更佳的入场点，从而使得自己能够设置更合理的止损位和更宽的止盈空间。为了找到理想入场位，我每天会做这些事醒来后，吃一顿健康营养早餐、再做点健身运动后，我开始坐在电脑前，看看纽约交易时段发生了什么，当然，这是因为我自己住在澳大利亚，醒来时前一天的纽约市场正好收盘了。我会看外汇、股指、主要商品市场，看看之前发生了什么，以及他们接下来对亚洲和欧洲市场的影响。我的目标是快速浏览经常交易的市场是否有比较明显的信号或者形态。如果有所发现，我便按照上面第二步，看看是否能找到支撑这个交易信息的市场结构等，同时也判断这个机会是不是真的值得交易。毕竟不是每一个发现的信号都适合交易。如果一个交易信号没有支撑汇合点，那么我可能不会交易它。当然，若锁定了值得交易的信号，我才开始判断它是不是满足我的交易标准，如果是，我再进一步研究计划，比如如何更好的入场，如何设置止损，以及何时退出等。让我们来看一些案例：示例1：在下面EUR/USD日图中，我们可以看到一个明显的pin bar做空信号，看起来这个信号的背后有很多支撑他的汇合因素。这一点我们将在下一张图中讨论。目前，留意到它的下影线明确突出，意味着价格在该区域出现较大的反转，以及遇到强阻力，并暗示接下来的数天价格可能继续走低。这个pin bar信号符合“明显”的概念，一眼就能看到：在下面图表中，我们来看看有什么“证据”在支撑这个pin bar信号。在这种情况下，绝对有足够的证据来保证入场交易。如下图所示，市场处于数月的下跌趋势中，并且在关键阻力区附近形成了信号，信号本身带有明显的特征。在我看来，这些都可以作为它的支撑信息。接下来直接设置交易，等待市场触发设置，之后你可以去看场电影放松下，不要在入场开始交易后就盯着盘面：接下来，我们放大pin bar视图。我们现在专注入场位调整，以及看看是否能提升风险回报潜力。请注意，在此交易中，我们本可以在pin bar的50%回撤位附近入场，以大大提高风险回报率。但是，你仍然可以在该50%回撤位以下的某个位置入场。事实上，在pin bar接近50%回撤位的位置入场相对有更好的回报，我们需要灵活设置入场比较接近这个位置。大概的盈利目标是3到4倍。示例2：下面是澳洲利亚股票指数SPI 200日线图。瞧了一眼这张图片，你就会被图表上抢眼的pin bar引起注意。它与日图上的水平很明显保持一致。那么这个pin bar的上影线非常突出，暗示价格将急剧反转。下图切换到周线图。通常，当在日图或4小时图上发现交易信号时，我会检查周线图，以了解该信号在长期时间框架背景下如何有意义，或者说它是否存在意义。在这种情况下，上方日线图的pin bar的形成在周线图上存在非常强大的关键阻力区/事件区域，如下图所示。它还与日线图和周线图上的下降趋势一致。最后，我们将日线图上的pin bar信号放大。请注意，此处无法进行回撤/入场调整，但该交易仍具有2倍的潜在盈利，因为下一个支撑会在很低的价位出现，如下图所示。像这样在关键级别/事件区域形成的交易，加上趋势一致，因此可以肯定这是一个值得交易的信号，它可能预示着一波快速且幅度大的价格波动：示例3：在这个示例中，我们将看到原油日线图上形成的几个看跌tailed bar信号（tailed bar指的是一个带有尾巴(影线)的烛台，影线的长度比烛台实体要更长）。你可以留意一个非常强劲的下跌趋势已经形成，这些看跌烛台信号就是在价格突破关键阻力位后下方形成并收于该水平之上。这些信号也许不如上面例子中的明显，不过考虑到市场空头背后的力量，经验比较丰富的交易者还是不难发现它们：一旦我们缩小图表视图，就可以清晰地看到信号烛台大小，以及形成的趋势。这些强大的支撑汇合因素使得这笔交易轻松盈利。把日线图上的信号放大，我们可以看到，即使止损刚好高于第一个tailed bar高点（并超过该水平），该交易仍存在巨大的潜在风险回报，因为该市场确实处于“失控趋势”，趋势非常强劲。这些类型的趋势最适合追加头寸，以此赚取巨额利润。请注意，仅在此处的一个位置上，你就可以轻松获得5倍的利润。总结本文中一个主要内容就是，最好的交易是得到多个汇合因素支撑的。在上述所有示例中，趋势非常明显，并且信号在关键水平上形成。一旦你了解并理解了正在寻找的东西，所有一切都水到渠成。然而，这些需要一些训练、时间和培养直觉才能真正获得。我希望你记住，你正在寻找的信号和水平或信号和趋势的“交叉点”，甚至只是水平和趋势的“交叉点”，就像狙击手一样进行交易，在做好功课的前提下，选择那些有价值的交易去做。一旦你理解了如何阅读图表上的“资金足迹”，即价格行为，所有这一切都会变得更容易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02015":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063510828,"gmtCreate":1651490826781,"gmtModify":1676534915305,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063510828","repostId":"1107758318","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063026320,"gmtCreate":1651373949128,"gmtModify":1676534897709,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063026320","repostId":"1145554634","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069249685,"gmtCreate":1651298834484,"gmtModify":1676534887261,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069249685","repostId":"1195859414","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":102717168,"gmtCreate":1620253774654,"gmtModify":1704340701858,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"History will repeat, the Q is&nbsp;when...","listText":"History will repeat, the Q is&nbsp;when...","text":"History will repeat, the Q is when...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102717168","repostId":"1148686352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148686352","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620224535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148686352?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-05 22:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148686352","media":"benzinga","summary":"What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the ","content":"<div>\n<p>What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time.\nWhere The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02.\nWhat Else Was Going On In The World?In...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-05 22:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market><strong>benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time.\nWhere The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02.\nWhat Else Was Going On In The World?In...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148686352","content_text":"What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time.\nWhere The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02.\nWhat Else Was Going On In The World?In 1893, Thomas Edison completed the world’s first movie studio in West Orange, New Jersey. Lizzie Borden was acquitted of the ax murders of her father and stepmother. A fresh, one-pound beef steak cost 10 cents.\nPanic Of 1893:On May 5, 1893, the Dow Jones Index dropped more than 24% from 39.90 to 30.02. It would mark the worst intraday sell-off in U.S. history at the time, a record that would stand until 1929.\nThe Panic of 1893 was triggered in part by falling gold reserves in the U.S. Treasury. At the time, the U.S. was on the gold standard, meaning U.S. dollars could be redeemed for physical gold. When Treasury gold reserves dropped from $190 million in 1890 to $100 million by 1893, Americans grew concerned that the Treasury might run out of gold and began withdrawing bank notes and converting them to gold, placing extreme strain on the U.S. banking industry and credit markets.\nThe May 5 sell-off was triggered in part by the bankruptcy of Nation Cordage the day before.General Electric CompanyGE 0.34%shares dropped 28% on the day from $80 to $58.\nFortunately for investors, the Panic of 1893 didn’t last for long. By the end of the day, the market nearly completely recovered its losses. GE, for example, closed the session at $78.50.\nThe Panic of 1893 would ravage the U.S. economy, triggering a severe four-year depression. Roughly 14,000 U.S. businesses closed, and unemployment rose to 20%. The event would mark the worst economic downturn in U.S. history until the Great Depression began in 1929.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171757291,"gmtCreate":1626768146713,"gmtModify":1703764809359,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be prepared","listText":"Be prepared","text":"Be prepared","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171757291","repostId":"1168215370","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"content":"big ? not enough","text":"big ? not enough","html":"big ? not enough"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116479969,"gmtCreate":1622817159751,"gmtModify":1704191836860,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope they have a new product to extend the glory?","listText":"Hope they have a new product to extend the glory?","text":"Hope they have a new product to extend the glory?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/116479969","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122373606?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>\n <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>\n <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p>\n<p>Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p>\n<p>To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's business growth</b></p>\n<p>Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p>\n<p>On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p>\n<p>Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p>\n<p>This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's future valuation</b></p>\n<p>AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p>\n<p><b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p>\n<p>Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p>\n<p>AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p>\n<p>Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 15:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110511495,"gmtCreate":1622468095917,"gmtModify":1704184834821,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Emm...neither?","listText":"Emm...neither?","text":"Emm...neither?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110511495","repostId":"2139043042","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581742924827239","authorId":"3581742924827239","name":"JiaocyTi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c16d760078e396b46033bc97afede0c8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581742924827239","idStr":"3581742924827239"},"content":"Wait for more option or better chance","text":"Wait for more option or better chance","html":"Wait for more option or better chance"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026009217,"gmtCreate":1653288021939,"gmtModify":1676535254426,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Risk and opportunity","listText":"Risk and opportunity","text":"Risk and opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026009217","repostId":"1126352915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863788478,"gmtCreate":1632436903594,"gmtModify":1676530780344,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863788478","repostId":"2169665501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2169665501","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1632370388,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2169665501?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-23 12:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Comments on the Fed's interest rate meeting: Boots basically landed, Powell took away the \"wine glass\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169665501","media":"新浪财经","summary":"核心观点\n9月议息会议，美联储维持基准利率和购债规模不变，声明中提及“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。经济预测和点阵图显示加息预期进一步提前。鲍威尔讲话较为鹰派，表示缩减购债规模","content":"<p>Core Perspectives</p><p>At the interest rate meeting in September, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged. The statement mentioned that \"if the progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down\". Economic forecasts and dot plots show that rate hike expects to move further ahead. Powell spoke more hawkish, saying that the conditions for tapering bond purchases could be met as early as the next meeting. We believe that according to the statement of this meeting and Powell's speech, Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The rhythm may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion per month, and it will end in the middle of next year. The turning point of US Treasury yields may depend on the time when the debt ceiling is resolved.</p><p>Results of interest rate meeting: In terms of interest rate instruments, at this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%; In terms of asset purchases, the Fed said that \"if progress goes roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down\" and reiterated that it will continue to buy Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made towards the committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.\" In terms of economic expectations, the Fed added that \"in recent months, the industries most affected by the pandemic have improved but the increase in cases has delayed the recovery progress\", and the description of inflation was changed from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated\", but it is still temporary.</p><p>Policy rate forecast vs. economic outlook forecast: The dot plot of the policy rate forecast shows that all policymakers expect Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with nine commissioners expecting rate hikes in 2022 and 17 expecting rate hikes in 2023. In terms of economic outlook forecasts, the Federal Reserve sharply lowered its economic growth forecast for this year and raised its inflation forecast. GDP growth is expected to be 5.9% in 2021 and 7.0% in June this year; The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8% in 2021 and 4.5% in June this year; PCE inflation is expected to be 4.2% in 2021 and 3.4% in June this year; Core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.7% in 2021 and 3.0% in June this year.</p><p>Takeaways from Powell's speech: Substantial progress has been made on inflation; For themselves and many FOMC members, there has been substantial progress on employment issues; The language in the statement means that the conditions for tapering could be met as early as the next meeting. If the economy continues to move in line with expectations, austerity measures can easily be taken at the next meeting, and the taper could end around the middle of next year. tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; Different demographic indicators are indeed to be looked at when assessing maximum employment, and the persistent racial gap in the unemployment rate is quite disturbing.</p><p>Recent fundamentals in the United States: In terms of epidemic situation, the number of newly confirmed cases of novel coronavirus declined, and the epidemic margin eased. In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm employment continued to grow, but the growth rate in August was far lower than expected, hitting a new low since January 2021. The increased concern of residents about the epidemic was the main reason why the number of new non-farm employment was far lower than the market expectation. In terms of inflation, PPI reached a new high in August, and the increase of CPI slowed down but was still at a high level. Energy was the main growth item of CPI, and the market inflation expectation eased. In terms of consumption, the retail data in August greatly exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal positive trend. In terms of investment, the growth rate of new orders for durable goods continued to improve, but the margins slowed down. In terms of economic prosperity, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in August showed that the economic recovery slowed down, but it was still in a relatively high expansion range.</p><p>Taper boots basically hit the ground, and Powell takes away the \"wine glass\" and doesn't sing \"pigeon\". For the first time, the statement of this interest rate meeting clearly gave information on reducing the scale of bond purchases. Powell also paid more attention to Taper in his subsequent speech. At the same time, he did not continue the usual \"pigeon\" remarks in the past, but paved the way for Taper more. Judging from the first mention of tapering bond purchases in the interest rate meeting statement and Powell's subsequent statement, Taper's boots have basically landed.</p><p>The dot plot and economic forecasts continue to show rate hike expectations ahead of schedule and the Fed may tighten monetary policy sooner than the market expects. At this meeting, dot plots and economic forecasts show that the Federal Reserve is optimistic about long-term economic growth and more worried about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not blindly emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot was just a personal prediction as in June, indicating that the rate hike shown in this dot plot indicated in advance that the policy might change. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expected.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The rhythm may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion every month, and it will end in the middle of next year. The turning point of US Treasury yields may depend on the settlement time of the debt ceiling. If employment does not deteriorate beyond expectations, the Federal Reserve will probably announce Taper at the next FOMC interest rate meeting in November and implement Taper from December. Regarding the rhythm of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that Taper will end in the middle of next year. If the rhythm of bond purchase is reduced by $15 billion at each interest rate meeting according to the previous round of experience, then Taper will end in the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we don't think it is excluded that this round of Taper will be reduced by $15 billion per month until the middle of next year. With the continuity of the Fed's communication, the current Taper is no longer the core factor in determining the inflection point of US Treasury yields. The inflection point of US Treasury yields may depend on the resolution time of the U.S. debt ceiling, which may appear near the end of October.</p><p>text</p><p>Results of Interest Meeting</p><p>In terms of interest rate instruments, at this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, and reiterated that it would keep the interest rate at the current level until it achieved its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Council voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on the reserve balance at 0.15% effective September 23, 2021. The underlying credit rate remained unchanged at 0.25%, in line with market expectations.</p><p>In terms of asset purchases, the Fed said that \"if progress goes roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down\". The Federal Reserve reiterates that it will continue to buy Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made towards achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals\", and support the flow of credit to households and businesses by increasing its holdings in Treasury Bond and MBS and buying CMBS as needed to promote smooth market operation and provide easy financial conditions; Conduct an overnight reverse repo agreement operation with a quoted interest rate of 0.05%, with a limit of $160 billion per party transactions per day.</p><p>In terms of economic expectations, the Fed added \"in recent months, the industries most affected by the pandemic have seen improvements but increased cases have delayed the progress of recovery\"; The description of inflation was changed from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated\". Economic activity and employment indicators continue to strengthen with vaccination progress and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but rising COVID-19 cases have slowed their recovery. The rise in inflation mainly reflects temporary factors. The evolutionary path of the economy continues to depend on the progression of the virus. Progress in vaccinations may continue to reduce the impact of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.</p><p>Federal Reserve Policy Rate Forecast and Economic Forecast</p><p>At this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve updated its policy interest rate forecast and economic forecast. The dot plot of policy rate forecasts shows that all policymakers expect Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with nine commissioners expecting rate hikes in 2022, 17 expecting rate hikes in 2023 and a possible 6-7 rate hike in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2548ac654d0266737d70a1c610987d9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. economic outlook forecast, in terms of economic growth, the Federal Reserve expects GDP to grow by 5.9% in 2021 and 7.0% in June this year; Expected growth of 3.8% in 2022 and 3.3% in June this year; Expected growth of 2.5% in 2023 and 2.4% in June this year; Expected growth of 2.0% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to grow by 1.8% and this June is expected to grow by 1.8%.</p><p>In terms of unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve expects it to be 4.8% in 2021 and 4.5% in June this year; It is expected to be 3.8% in 2022 and 3.8% in June this year; 3.5% expected in 2023 and 3.5% expected in June this year; Expected growth of 3.5% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to be 4.0%, and this June is expected to be 4.0%.</p><p>In terms of inflation, the Fed expects PCE inflation to be 4.2% in 2021 and 3.4% in June this year; It is expected to be 2.2% in 2022 and 2.1% in June this year; 2.2% expected in 2023 and 2.2% expected in June this year; Expected growth of 2.1% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to be 2.0%, and this June is expected to be 2.0%. Core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.7% in 2021 and 3.0% in June this year; It is expected to be 2.3% in 2022 and 2.1% in June this year; 2.2% expected in 2023 and 2.1% expected in June this year; It is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337179c001ee4d2f009760e7065ceb7f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Powell's speech</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that day: If the economic trend continues to be in line with expectations, it can easily take tightening measures at the next meeting. The committee today discussed progress towards the goals, and for itself and many FOMC members, there has been substantial progress on employment issues. If progress continues, the scale-back of bond purchases may soon be guaranteed, and the scale-back may end around the middle of next year.</p><p>On Taper, Powell said: There has been substantial progress on inflation; For themselves and many FOMC members, there has been substantial progress on employment issues; The language in the statement means that the taper could be met as early as the next meeting; The majority of FOMC members support the timing and speed of tapering; Asset purchases still have their uses, but now is the time to scale back. There will be no rate hike until the taper is over. If the timing is right, the Fed can certainly speed up or slow down its tapering of bond purchases. tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; When assessing maximum employment, it is true to look at different demographic indicators.</p><p>In terms of economic expectations, Powell said: The economic outlook remains risky; Delta strain slowed economic recovery; Continued progress in vaccinations will support a return to more normal conditions for the economy; Growth is likely to continue at a strong pace for the rest of the year; Slow recovery in the industry affected by the pandemic; Supply constraints inhibit economic activity.</p><p>On the jobs front, Powell said: Labour demand is very strong, unemployment rates overestimate the job gap, care demand and ongoing concerns about the virus affect job growth but should disappear over time; There is still a lot of idle place in the labor market; Many FOMC members believe substantial further progress has been made on employment, with the view \"almost reached\". The Delta strain affects people returning to work, and it may take more time for people to get back to work; The persistent racial disparity in unemployment is quite troubling, and eliminating racial disparities is something fiscal policy is better suited to than the tools of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>On inflation, Powell said: Inflation is rising and could continue for months before easing; Supply bottlenecks, hiring difficulties may again be bigger and more persistent than anticipated. The long-term inflation expectation measure remains aligned with the long-term inflation target, and if persistently high inflation is a concern, we will certainly respond. Inflation forecasts have risen this year and for years to come, reflecting that bottlenecks and shortages have not yet been mitigated in a \"meaningful way\".</p><p>On the debt ceiling, Powell said: It is very important to raise the debt ceiling in time; Failure to do so could cause serious damage to the economy; The United States should not default, and no one should assume that the Fed can fully protect the market or the economy in the event of a default.</p><p>Recent U.S. Fundamentals</p><p>Recently, the number of newly confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in the United States has dropped, and the epidemic situation in the United States has eased marginally. As of September 21, 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States reached 43.24 million, and the cumulative number of deaths was 700,000. The number of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States on that day was 130,000, a decrease of 80,000 from the previous day. The slowdown of the spread of the epidemic in the United States may be related to the gradual increase of vaccine penetration rate, and the number of newly confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in the United States has shown a downward trend since September 13th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d108a0b4de776878602633cbfcca1a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of employment, from the perspective of changes in non-farm payrolls, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 235,000 after seasonal adjustment in August, compared with an expected increase of 720,000. The number of new non-farm payrolls reached a new low since January 2021, while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.2%, a new low since March 2020. In August, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was far lower than the previous value and market expectations. Judging from the trend of new non-farm payrolls, despite the acceleration of vaccination in the United States and the early suspension of unemployment benefits in some states, the number of new non-farm payrolls increased significantly in June and July, which was continuously higher than market expectations. However, the previous non-farm employment data did not reflect the disturbance brought to the job market by the rebound of the epidemic caused by the new round of Delta mutant strain. In August, the non-farm employment data was far lower than market expectations under the disturbance of the epidemic.</p><p>The Delta variant strain caused the epidemic to rebound, and residents' increased worries about the epidemic were the main reasons why the number of new non-farm employment was far lower than the market expectation. Specifically, the unexpected zero growth of the leisure hotel industry, the main source of new non-farm employment, led to weaker-than-expected non-farm employment data, a decrease of about 415,000 compared with July. The professional and business services industry maintained an increase, recording 74,000 employees, a decrease of about 5,000 from the previous month, but it still became the industry with the largest number of new non-farm employment in August, and the warehousing and transportation industry increased by 53,200 employees. The number of employees in government departments decreased by about 263,000 month-on-month, from an increase of 255,000 in the previous value to a decrease of 8,000 in the present value; The number of new employment in education and health services decreased by about 53,000 from the previous month. From the perspective of industry data, the slowdown in the growth of employment in the service industry in the United States is one of the main factors that lead to the employment number being significantly lower than the overall growth rate. The impact of the new round of epidemic on consumption and employment activities was higher than expected. At a time when the new round of infection peak caused by Delta strain has not yet passed, people's spontaneous reduction in going out has continued to impact economic activities, and personal education and plans to return to the workplace have also been disrupted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde1a3a84487e70f3a8cafc8473e0ca\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"1040\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of inflation, PPI reached a new high in August, and the increase of CPI slowed down. Energy item was the main growth item of CPI. In August, the non-seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the expected increase was 5.3%; Unseasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 4.0% year-on-year and is expected to grow by 4.2%. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and is expected to increase by 0.4%; Seasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 0.1% sequentially and expected to grow by 0.3%. PPI grew 8.3% year-on-year, hitting another record high. In August, the highest year-on-year growth rate of CPI was still the energy item. Transportation services and the price increase of used cars, which drove the CPI to continue to rise in the previous period, have converged. Energy prices increased by 25% year-on-year, of which gasoline prices increased by 2.8% month-on-month and 42.7% year-on-year, and food prices increased by 3.7% year-on-year. Although the CPI remained high year-on-year in August, the increase slowed down and the market inflation expectation eased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6326a1fede7bd4665cc7d69bff8419\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb465d85d4fd8a7dfb1db447f3ee113\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of consumption, the retail data greatly exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal positive trend. U.S. retail sales data for August increased by 0.7% month-over-month, far exceeding market expectations of-0.7%, and increased by 15.37% year-over-year. The consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan released by the United States rose slightly to 71 in September, and the final value in August was 70.3, slightly exceeding expectations. The increase in COVID-19 cases due to the spread of Delta strain is slowing down, and the consumer confidence index may continue to rebound. But compared to spring and pre-pandemic levels, the current market sentiment remains subdued amid the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a920b65ab2b007e867991d1226c0d5e\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"846\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of investment, new orders for durable goods in the United States have fluctuated year-on-year recently, recording 10.99% year-on-year in July and 24.17% year-on-year in June, continuing the positive value since November 2020, reflecting the improvement of investment situation in the United States, but the marginal growth rate has slowed down. New U.S. orders for durable goods excluding transportation increased 15.56% year-on-year in July after seasonal adjustment, and 18.50% year-on-year in June. The continued growth of new orders for durable goods and new orders for durable goods other than transportation in the United States may reflect the continued improvement of investment conditions in the United States, but the marginal growth rate has slowed down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e191ff9b409bc4d397c7d3ab0eb87d8b\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of economic sentiment, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in August showed a slowing recovery, but remained relatively high. The ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States was 59.9 in August, which was slightly higher than 59.5 in July, but there was still a certain gap from 61.2 in May. Affected by the rebound of the epidemic, the recovery progress was hindered. In terms of sub-items, prices moved significantly, falling to 79.4 from 85.7 in July, and supplier deliveries fell slightly to 69.5 from 72.5 in July. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in August was 61.7, down significantly from 64.1 in July. In terms of sub-items, the business activity index was 60.1, down 6.9 percentage points from 67 in the previous month, and reached a six-month low, highlighting that the Delta variant strain is reducing people's demand for eating out, leisure and travel; The employment sub-item dropped slightly from 53.8 to 53.7; The inventory sub-item fell from 49.2 in July to 46.9 in August, falling to its lowest level in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346bea160af4b48bf00689f24f779c95\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>remark</p><p>Taper boots basically hit the ground, and Powell takes the \"wine glass\" and doesn't sing \"pigeon\". For the first time, the statement of this interest rate meeting clearly gave a message to reduce the scale of bond purchases, that is, \"if the progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down\". Powell also paid more attention to Taper in his subsequent speech. At the same time, he did not continue the usual \"dove\" remarks in the past, but paved the way for Taper more. For example, inflation has made substantial progress, and many FOMC members said that the employment issue has made substantial progress. The wording in the statement means that the conditions for reducing the scale of bond purchases may be met at the next meeting at the earliest. Judging from the first mention of tapering bond purchases in the interest rate meeting statement and Powell's subsequent statement, Taper's boots have basically landed.</p><p>The dot plot and economic forecasts continue to show rate hike expectations ahead of schedule and the Fed may tighten monetary policy sooner than the market expects. At this meeting, all policymakers are expecting the Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with nine commissioners expecting to raise interest rates in 2022, 17 commissioners expecting to raise interest rates in 2023, and possibly 6-7 rate hike in 2024. At the June interest rate meeting, all policymakers expected Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with seven commissioners expecting rate hikes in 2022 and 13 in 2023. In the economic forecast, the Federal Reserve significantly lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year, but raised its GDP growth forecast for 2022 and 2023. At the same time, it significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year and slightly raised its inflation forecast for 2022, indicating that the Federal Reserve is optimistic about long-term economic growth and more worried about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not blindly emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot was just a personal prediction as in June, indicating that the rate hike shown in this dot plot indicated in advance that the policy might change. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expected.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The rhythm may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion every month, and it will end in the middle of next year. The turning point of US Treasury yields may depend on the settlement time of the debt ceiling. According to the statement of this interest rate meeting and Powell's speech, if employment does not deteriorate beyond expectations, the Fed will probably announce Taper at the next FOMC interest rate meeting in November, and implement Taper from December. Regarding the rhythm of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that Taper will end in the middle of next year. If the rhythm of bond purchase is reduced by $15 billion at each interest rate meeting according to the previous round of experience, then Taper will end in the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we don't think it is excluded that this round of Taper will be reduced by $15 billion per month until the middle of next year. With the continuity of the Fed's communication, the current Taper is no longer the core factor in determining the inflection point of US Treasury yields. The inflection point of US Treasury yields may depend on the resolution time of the U.S. debt ceiling, which may appear near the end of October.</p><p>MARKET REVIEW</p><p>Interest rate bonds</p><p>Capital Market Review</p><p>On September 22, 2021, the inter-bank pledged repo weighted rate was mixed, moving 4.70bps, -1.54bps, 9.10bps, 0.67bp and-1.68bps to 2.15%, 2.23%, 2.46%, 2.60% and 2.60% overnight, 7-day, 14-day, 21-day and 1-month, respectively. Treasury Bond yields to maturity generally declined, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year changes of-5.87bps, -2.12bps, -0.87bp and-0.78bp to 2.33%, 2.56%, 2.71% and 2.86% respectively. On September 22nd, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.40% to 3628.49, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.57% to 14277.08, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.91% to 3164.33.</p><p>According to the announcement of the central bank, in order to maintain the stable liquidity at the end of the quarter, on September 22nd, 60 billion yuan 7-day and 60 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operations were carried out by interest rate bidding. Today, the central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 60 billion yuan and a 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 60 billion yuan in the open market. 30 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, realizing a net liquidity investment of 90 billion yuan. In addition, from Thursday to Friday, 60 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase will expire, 70 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit will expire on Friday, and 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will expire on Sunday.</p><p>Liquidity dynamic monitoring</p><p>We track the market liquidity situation and observe the \"investment and receipt\" of liquidity since the beginning of 2017. In terms of increment, we calculate the total investment volume based on the scale of reverse repurchase, SLF, MLF and other central bank open market operations, and treasury cash fixed deposits; In terms of reduction, we calculated the total daily liquidity reduction based on the cumulative increase of 1,601.066 billion yuan in M0 in December 2020 compared with December 2016, the cumulative decrease of 811.716 billion yuan in foreign exchange holdings and the cumulative increase of 986.866 billion yuan in fiscal deposits, and roughly estimated the liquidity through residents' cash withdrawals, the decrease in foreign exchange holdings and the loss of tax revenue, and considered the maturity of open market operations. At the same time, we monitor the maturity of open market operations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a306434fbba9a99088fd2e91d87d106\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"1136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bonds</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Review</p><p>On September 22nd, in the convertible bond market, CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 415.11 points, up 0.43% daily, convertible bond index closed at 1735.61 points, up 0.42% daily, and convertible bond plan index closed at 1449.60 points, down 0.04% daily; The average convertible bond price is 144.52, and the average parity is 113.55 yuan. Among the 376 listed and traded convertible bonds, except Yingke Convertible Bonds, Jiuzhou Convertible Bonds and Qingshui Convertible Bonds, 191 rose, 1 traded sideways and 181 fell. Among them, Mengdian Convertible Bonds (16.03%), Pu Nai Convertible Bonds (14.42%) and Qixiang Zhuan 2 (12.23%) led the gains, while Shida Convertible Bonds (-12.29%), Hongxin Convertible Bonds (-8.20%) and Jiuwu Convertible Bonds (-5.86%) led the decline. underlying shares of 370 convertible bonds, 171 rose, 8 traded sideways and 191 fell. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688388\">Jiayuan Technology</a>（15.84%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300682\">Langxin Technology</a>(13.11%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600863\">Inner Mongolia Huadian</a>(10.08%) led the gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002527\">New Star</a>（-9.97%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300657\">Hongxin Electronics</a>(-9.31%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300631\">Jiugo Hi-Tech</a>(-8.04%) led the decline.</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Weekly View</p><p>Last week, the market rose first and then fell, and the convertible bond index fell rapidly after rising. Structurally, there is an obvious equilibrium in the market style. The pharmaceutical and other sectors that were hit hard in the early stage began to strengthen, while the strong cycle sector adjusted significantly.</p><p>Recently, there has been a lot of discussion on the valuation of convertible bonds in the market, and the stock valuation was also compressed last week. However, we believe that valuation is not the core factor in the current market. Further, considering the large structural differentiation of valuation, the reference significance of the overall valuation level of the market has also decreased. Strategically, we continue the direction of equilibrium, and at present, it is the stage of allocation rebalancing. We believe that the increasing market volatility is the stage of stepping up the layout in some directions. The core of balancing the direction is to select individual coupons. The alpha of the market is more obvious, and the opportunities will not be limited. While convertible bonds maintain high flexibility, some positions can be increased to pay attention to the low valuation targets of underlying shares with thick price safety cushions.</p><p>The cyclical sector is a variety with rapid volatility recently. As the global economy begins to face growth pressure, it will further suppress the potential demand for commodities. At the same time, the high upstream prices will also have a negative impact on the downstream demand. Behind the upstream and downstream game, we pay more attention to the direction where supply is limited or demand still has potential boost space, such as crude oil, UHV, public utilities and environmental protection.</p><p>Recently, the pan-consumption sector has suffered a continuous impact, among which the emotion is suspected of overreaction. After the impact, it is still worth paying attention to this direction. With the decline of economic growth momentum, the consumption sector, which has been adjusted a lot recently, may show stable characteristics again. Although the epidemic has constituted a certain disturbance, there are many directions of sustained prosperity in consumption, and some targets have also reached new highs. Investors are advised to pay more attention to this direction. At the same time, we can increase our attention to the financial sector.</p><p>For the growth and manufacturing direction recommended in the past few months, it is also the structural hot spot of the current market, and there are still targets that continue to hit new highs in the near future. However, looking forward, more attention should be paid to alpha in this direction. We suggest preferring the allocation of leading coupons. The main logical direction is suggested to investigate from two perspectives: domestic substitution and technological upgrading, focusing on semiconductors, auto parts, wind power, photovoltaic, pharmaceutical industry, communication and other sectors. However, the current focus is on balancing the choice of positions and actively responding to fluctuations in market sentiment.</p><p>The highly flexible portfolio proposal focuses on Dongcai Transfer 3, Xinchun Convertible Bonds, Sly Convertible Bonds, Jiayuan (Jinbo) Convertible Bonds, Jincheng (Binhua) Convertible Bonds, Aojia Convertible Bonds, Enjie Convertible Bonds, Jinko Convertible Bonds, Biyin Convertible Bonds and Jingda Convertible Bonds.</p><p>It is recommended to pay attention to Hangyin Convertible Bonds, Mona (Hailan) Convertible Bonds, Wangneng Convertible Bonds, Tianhao Convertible Bonds, Taihua Convertible Bonds, Tianneng (Funeng) Convertible Bonds, Wencan Convertible Bonds, Runjian Convertible Bonds and Langxin Convertible Bonds.</p><p>Risk Factors</p><p>Market liquidity fluctuated greatly, macroeconomic growth was not as good as expected, risk-free interest rates fluctuated greatly, and underlying shares stock price fluctuated beyond expectations.</p><p>Stock market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294bd133a63473e9163b00961accb856\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bond market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6a015caa67dc2b92dd786923292bd\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CITIC Securities Mingming Research Team</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1804bd2a58f1fc4b3242b88f2f02977b\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Comments on the Fed's interest rate meeting: Boots basically landed, Powell took away the \"wine glass\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nComments on the Fed's interest rate meeting: Boots basically landed, Powell took away the \"wine glass\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-23 12:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Core Perspectives</p><p>At the interest rate meeting in September, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged. The statement mentioned that \"if the progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down\". Economic forecasts and dot plots show that rate hike expects to move further ahead. Powell spoke more hawkish, saying that the conditions for tapering bond purchases could be met as early as the next meeting. We believe that according to the statement of this meeting and Powell's speech, Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The rhythm may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion per month, and it will end in the middle of next year. The turning point of US Treasury yields may depend on the time when the debt ceiling is resolved.</p><p>Results of interest rate meeting: In terms of interest rate instruments, at this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%; In terms of asset purchases, the Fed said that \"if progress goes roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down\" and reiterated that it will continue to buy Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made towards the committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.\" In terms of economic expectations, the Fed added that \"in recent months, the industries most affected by the pandemic have improved but the increase in cases has delayed the recovery progress\", and the description of inflation was changed from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated\", but it is still temporary.</p><p>Policy rate forecast vs. economic outlook forecast: The dot plot of the policy rate forecast shows that all policymakers expect Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with nine commissioners expecting rate hikes in 2022 and 17 expecting rate hikes in 2023. In terms of economic outlook forecasts, the Federal Reserve sharply lowered its economic growth forecast for this year and raised its inflation forecast. GDP growth is expected to be 5.9% in 2021 and 7.0% in June this year; The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8% in 2021 and 4.5% in June this year; PCE inflation is expected to be 4.2% in 2021 and 3.4% in June this year; Core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.7% in 2021 and 3.0% in June this year.</p><p>Takeaways from Powell's speech: Substantial progress has been made on inflation; For themselves and many FOMC members, there has been substantial progress on employment issues; The language in the statement means that the conditions for tapering could be met as early as the next meeting. If the economy continues to move in line with expectations, austerity measures can easily be taken at the next meeting, and the taper could end around the middle of next year. tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; Different demographic indicators are indeed to be looked at when assessing maximum employment, and the persistent racial gap in the unemployment rate is quite disturbing.</p><p>Recent fundamentals in the United States: In terms of epidemic situation, the number of newly confirmed cases of novel coronavirus declined, and the epidemic margin eased. In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm employment continued to grow, but the growth rate in August was far lower than expected, hitting a new low since January 2021. The increased concern of residents about the epidemic was the main reason why the number of new non-farm employment was far lower than the market expectation. In terms of inflation, PPI reached a new high in August, and the increase of CPI slowed down but was still at a high level. Energy was the main growth item of CPI, and the market inflation expectation eased. In terms of consumption, the retail data in August greatly exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal positive trend. In terms of investment, the growth rate of new orders for durable goods continued to improve, but the margins slowed down. In terms of economic prosperity, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in August showed that the economic recovery slowed down, but it was still in a relatively high expansion range.</p><p>Taper boots basically hit the ground, and Powell takes away the \"wine glass\" and doesn't sing \"pigeon\". For the first time, the statement of this interest rate meeting clearly gave information on reducing the scale of bond purchases. Powell also paid more attention to Taper in his subsequent speech. At the same time, he did not continue the usual \"pigeon\" remarks in the past, but paved the way for Taper more. Judging from the first mention of tapering bond purchases in the interest rate meeting statement and Powell's subsequent statement, Taper's boots have basically landed.</p><p>The dot plot and economic forecasts continue to show rate hike expectations ahead of schedule and the Fed may tighten monetary policy sooner than the market expects. At this meeting, dot plots and economic forecasts show that the Federal Reserve is optimistic about long-term economic growth and more worried about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not blindly emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot was just a personal prediction as in June, indicating that the rate hike shown in this dot plot indicated in advance that the policy might change. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expected.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The rhythm may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion every month, and it will end in the middle of next year. The turning point of US Treasury yields may depend on the settlement time of the debt ceiling. If employment does not deteriorate beyond expectations, the Federal Reserve will probably announce Taper at the next FOMC interest rate meeting in November and implement Taper from December. Regarding the rhythm of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that Taper will end in the middle of next year. If the rhythm of bond purchase is reduced by $15 billion at each interest rate meeting according to the previous round of experience, then Taper will end in the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we don't think it is excluded that this round of Taper will be reduced by $15 billion per month until the middle of next year. With the continuity of the Fed's communication, the current Taper is no longer the core factor in determining the inflection point of US Treasury yields. The inflection point of US Treasury yields may depend on the resolution time of the U.S. debt ceiling, which may appear near the end of October.</p><p>text</p><p>Results of Interest Meeting</p><p>In terms of interest rate instruments, at this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, and reiterated that it would keep the interest rate at the current level until it achieved its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Council voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on the reserve balance at 0.15% effective September 23, 2021. The underlying credit rate remained unchanged at 0.25%, in line with market expectations.</p><p>In terms of asset purchases, the Fed said that \"if progress goes roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down\". The Federal Reserve reiterates that it will continue to buy Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made towards achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals\", and support the flow of credit to households and businesses by increasing its holdings in Treasury Bond and MBS and buying CMBS as needed to promote smooth market operation and provide easy financial conditions; Conduct an overnight reverse repo agreement operation with a quoted interest rate of 0.05%, with a limit of $160 billion per party transactions per day.</p><p>In terms of economic expectations, the Fed added \"in recent months, the industries most affected by the pandemic have seen improvements but increased cases have delayed the progress of recovery\"; The description of inflation was changed from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated\". Economic activity and employment indicators continue to strengthen with vaccination progress and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but rising COVID-19 cases have slowed their recovery. The rise in inflation mainly reflects temporary factors. The evolutionary path of the economy continues to depend on the progression of the virus. Progress in vaccinations may continue to reduce the impact of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.</p><p>Federal Reserve Policy Rate Forecast and Economic Forecast</p><p>At this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve updated its policy interest rate forecast and economic forecast. The dot plot of policy rate forecasts shows that all policymakers expect Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with nine commissioners expecting rate hikes in 2022, 17 expecting rate hikes in 2023 and a possible 6-7 rate hike in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2548ac654d0266737d70a1c610987d9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. economic outlook forecast, in terms of economic growth, the Federal Reserve expects GDP to grow by 5.9% in 2021 and 7.0% in June this year; Expected growth of 3.8% in 2022 and 3.3% in June this year; Expected growth of 2.5% in 2023 and 2.4% in June this year; Expected growth of 2.0% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to grow by 1.8% and this June is expected to grow by 1.8%.</p><p>In terms of unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve expects it to be 4.8% in 2021 and 4.5% in June this year; It is expected to be 3.8% in 2022 and 3.8% in June this year; 3.5% expected in 2023 and 3.5% expected in June this year; Expected growth of 3.5% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to be 4.0%, and this June is expected to be 4.0%.</p><p>In terms of inflation, the Fed expects PCE inflation to be 4.2% in 2021 and 3.4% in June this year; It is expected to be 2.2% in 2022 and 2.1% in June this year; 2.2% expected in 2023 and 2.2% expected in June this year; Expected growth of 2.1% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to be 2.0%, and this June is expected to be 2.0%. Core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.7% in 2021 and 3.0% in June this year; It is expected to be 2.3% in 2022 and 2.1% in June this year; 2.2% expected in 2023 and 2.1% expected in June this year; It is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337179c001ee4d2f009760e7065ceb7f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Powell's speech</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that day: If the economic trend continues to be in line with expectations, it can easily take tightening measures at the next meeting. The committee today discussed progress towards the goals, and for itself and many FOMC members, there has been substantial progress on employment issues. If progress continues, the scale-back of bond purchases may soon be guaranteed, and the scale-back may end around the middle of next year.</p><p>On Taper, Powell said: There has been substantial progress on inflation; For themselves and many FOMC members, there has been substantial progress on employment issues; The language in the statement means that the taper could be met as early as the next meeting; The majority of FOMC members support the timing and speed of tapering; Asset purchases still have their uses, but now is the time to scale back. There will be no rate hike until the taper is over. If the timing is right, the Fed can certainly speed up or slow down its tapering of bond purchases. tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; When assessing maximum employment, it is true to look at different demographic indicators.</p><p>In terms of economic expectations, Powell said: The economic outlook remains risky; Delta strain slowed economic recovery; Continued progress in vaccinations will support a return to more normal conditions for the economy; Growth is likely to continue at a strong pace for the rest of the year; Slow recovery in the industry affected by the pandemic; Supply constraints inhibit economic activity.</p><p>On the jobs front, Powell said: Labour demand is very strong, unemployment rates overestimate the job gap, care demand and ongoing concerns about the virus affect job growth but should disappear over time; There is still a lot of idle place in the labor market; Many FOMC members believe substantial further progress has been made on employment, with the view \"almost reached\". The Delta strain affects people returning to work, and it may take more time for people to get back to work; The persistent racial disparity in unemployment is quite troubling, and eliminating racial disparities is something fiscal policy is better suited to than the tools of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>On inflation, Powell said: Inflation is rising and could continue for months before easing; Supply bottlenecks, hiring difficulties may again be bigger and more persistent than anticipated. The long-term inflation expectation measure remains aligned with the long-term inflation target, and if persistently high inflation is a concern, we will certainly respond. Inflation forecasts have risen this year and for years to come, reflecting that bottlenecks and shortages have not yet been mitigated in a \"meaningful way\".</p><p>On the debt ceiling, Powell said: It is very important to raise the debt ceiling in time; Failure to do so could cause serious damage to the economy; The United States should not default, and no one should assume that the Fed can fully protect the market or the economy in the event of a default.</p><p>Recent U.S. Fundamentals</p><p>Recently, the number of newly confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in the United States has dropped, and the epidemic situation in the United States has eased marginally. As of September 21, 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States reached 43.24 million, and the cumulative number of deaths was 700,000. The number of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States on that day was 130,000, a decrease of 80,000 from the previous day. The slowdown of the spread of the epidemic in the United States may be related to the gradual increase of vaccine penetration rate, and the number of newly confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in the United States has shown a downward trend since September 13th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d108a0b4de776878602633cbfcca1a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of employment, from the perspective of changes in non-farm payrolls, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 235,000 after seasonal adjustment in August, compared with an expected increase of 720,000. The number of new non-farm payrolls reached a new low since January 2021, while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.2%, a new low since March 2020. In August, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was far lower than the previous value and market expectations. Judging from the trend of new non-farm payrolls, despite the acceleration of vaccination in the United States and the early suspension of unemployment benefits in some states, the number of new non-farm payrolls increased significantly in June and July, which was continuously higher than market expectations. However, the previous non-farm employment data did not reflect the disturbance brought to the job market by the rebound of the epidemic caused by the new round of Delta mutant strain. In August, the non-farm employment data was far lower than market expectations under the disturbance of the epidemic.</p><p>The Delta variant strain caused the epidemic to rebound, and residents' increased worries about the epidemic were the main reasons why the number of new non-farm employment was far lower than the market expectation. Specifically, the unexpected zero growth of the leisure hotel industry, the main source of new non-farm employment, led to weaker-than-expected non-farm employment data, a decrease of about 415,000 compared with July. The professional and business services industry maintained an increase, recording 74,000 employees, a decrease of about 5,000 from the previous month, but it still became the industry with the largest number of new non-farm employment in August, and the warehousing and transportation industry increased by 53,200 employees. The number of employees in government departments decreased by about 263,000 month-on-month, from an increase of 255,000 in the previous value to a decrease of 8,000 in the present value; The number of new employment in education and health services decreased by about 53,000 from the previous month. From the perspective of industry data, the slowdown in the growth of employment in the service industry in the United States is one of the main factors that lead to the employment number being significantly lower than the overall growth rate. The impact of the new round of epidemic on consumption and employment activities was higher than expected. At a time when the new round of infection peak caused by Delta strain has not yet passed, people's spontaneous reduction in going out has continued to impact economic activities, and personal education and plans to return to the workplace have also been disrupted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde1a3a84487e70f3a8cafc8473e0ca\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"1040\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of inflation, PPI reached a new high in August, and the increase of CPI slowed down. Energy item was the main growth item of CPI. In August, the non-seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the expected increase was 5.3%; Unseasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 4.0% year-on-year and is expected to grow by 4.2%. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and is expected to increase by 0.4%; Seasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 0.1% sequentially and expected to grow by 0.3%. PPI grew 8.3% year-on-year, hitting another record high. In August, the highest year-on-year growth rate of CPI was still the energy item. Transportation services and the price increase of used cars, which drove the CPI to continue to rise in the previous period, have converged. Energy prices increased by 25% year-on-year, of which gasoline prices increased by 2.8% month-on-month and 42.7% year-on-year, and food prices increased by 3.7% year-on-year. Although the CPI remained high year-on-year in August, the increase slowed down and the market inflation expectation eased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6326a1fede7bd4665cc7d69bff8419\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb465d85d4fd8a7dfb1db447f3ee113\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of consumption, the retail data greatly exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal positive trend. U.S. retail sales data for August increased by 0.7% month-over-month, far exceeding market expectations of-0.7%, and increased by 15.37% year-over-year. The consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan released by the United States rose slightly to 71 in September, and the final value in August was 70.3, slightly exceeding expectations. The increase in COVID-19 cases due to the spread of Delta strain is slowing down, and the consumer confidence index may continue to rebound. But compared to spring and pre-pandemic levels, the current market sentiment remains subdued amid the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a920b65ab2b007e867991d1226c0d5e\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"846\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of investment, new orders for durable goods in the United States have fluctuated year-on-year recently, recording 10.99% year-on-year in July and 24.17% year-on-year in June, continuing the positive value since November 2020, reflecting the improvement of investment situation in the United States, but the marginal growth rate has slowed down. New U.S. orders for durable goods excluding transportation increased 15.56% year-on-year in July after seasonal adjustment, and 18.50% year-on-year in June. The continued growth of new orders for durable goods and new orders for durable goods other than transportation in the United States may reflect the continued improvement of investment conditions in the United States, but the marginal growth rate has slowed down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e191ff9b409bc4d397c7d3ab0eb87d8b\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of economic sentiment, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in August showed a slowing recovery, but remained relatively high. The ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States was 59.9 in August, which was slightly higher than 59.5 in July, but there was still a certain gap from 61.2 in May. Affected by the rebound of the epidemic, the recovery progress was hindered. In terms of sub-items, prices moved significantly, falling to 79.4 from 85.7 in July, and supplier deliveries fell slightly to 69.5 from 72.5 in July. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in August was 61.7, down significantly from 64.1 in July. In terms of sub-items, the business activity index was 60.1, down 6.9 percentage points from 67 in the previous month, and reached a six-month low, highlighting that the Delta variant strain is reducing people's demand for eating out, leisure and travel; The employment sub-item dropped slightly from 53.8 to 53.7; The inventory sub-item fell from 49.2 in July to 46.9 in August, falling to its lowest level in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346bea160af4b48bf00689f24f779c95\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>remark</p><p>Taper boots basically hit the ground, and Powell takes the \"wine glass\" and doesn't sing \"pigeon\". For the first time, the statement of this interest rate meeting clearly gave a message to reduce the scale of bond purchases, that is, \"if the progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down\". Powell also paid more attention to Taper in his subsequent speech. At the same time, he did not continue the usual \"dove\" remarks in the past, but paved the way for Taper more. For example, inflation has made substantial progress, and many FOMC members said that the employment issue has made substantial progress. The wording in the statement means that the conditions for reducing the scale of bond purchases may be met at the next meeting at the earliest. Judging from the first mention of tapering bond purchases in the interest rate meeting statement and Powell's subsequent statement, Taper's boots have basically landed.</p><p>The dot plot and economic forecasts continue to show rate hike expectations ahead of schedule and the Fed may tighten monetary policy sooner than the market expects. At this meeting, all policymakers are expecting the Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with nine commissioners expecting to raise interest rates in 2022, 17 commissioners expecting to raise interest rates in 2023, and possibly 6-7 rate hike in 2024. At the June interest rate meeting, all policymakers expected Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with seven commissioners expecting rate hikes in 2022 and 13 in 2023. In the economic forecast, the Federal Reserve significantly lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year, but raised its GDP growth forecast for 2022 and 2023. At the same time, it significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year and slightly raised its inflation forecast for 2022, indicating that the Federal Reserve is optimistic about long-term economic growth and more worried about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not blindly emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot was just a personal prediction as in June, indicating that the rate hike shown in this dot plot indicated in advance that the policy might change. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expected.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The rhythm may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion every month, and it will end in the middle of next year. The turning point of US Treasury yields may depend on the settlement time of the debt ceiling. According to the statement of this interest rate meeting and Powell's speech, if employment does not deteriorate beyond expectations, the Fed will probably announce Taper at the next FOMC interest rate meeting in November, and implement Taper from December. Regarding the rhythm of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that Taper will end in the middle of next year. If the rhythm of bond purchase is reduced by $15 billion at each interest rate meeting according to the previous round of experience, then Taper will end in the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we don't think it is excluded that this round of Taper will be reduced by $15 billion per month until the middle of next year. With the continuity of the Fed's communication, the current Taper is no longer the core factor in determining the inflection point of US Treasury yields. The inflection point of US Treasury yields may depend on the resolution time of the U.S. debt ceiling, which may appear near the end of October.</p><p>MARKET REVIEW</p><p>Interest rate bonds</p><p>Capital Market Review</p><p>On September 22, 2021, the inter-bank pledged repo weighted rate was mixed, moving 4.70bps, -1.54bps, 9.10bps, 0.67bp and-1.68bps to 2.15%, 2.23%, 2.46%, 2.60% and 2.60% overnight, 7-day, 14-day, 21-day and 1-month, respectively. Treasury Bond yields to maturity generally declined, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year changes of-5.87bps, -2.12bps, -0.87bp and-0.78bp to 2.33%, 2.56%, 2.71% and 2.86% respectively. On September 22nd, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.40% to 3628.49, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.57% to 14277.08, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.91% to 3164.33.</p><p>According to the announcement of the central bank, in order to maintain the stable liquidity at the end of the quarter, on September 22nd, 60 billion yuan 7-day and 60 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operations were carried out by interest rate bidding. Today, the central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 60 billion yuan and a 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 60 billion yuan in the open market. 30 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, realizing a net liquidity investment of 90 billion yuan. In addition, from Thursday to Friday, 60 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase will expire, 70 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit will expire on Friday, and 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will expire on Sunday.</p><p>Liquidity dynamic monitoring</p><p>We track the market liquidity situation and observe the \"investment and receipt\" of liquidity since the beginning of 2017. In terms of increment, we calculate the total investment volume based on the scale of reverse repurchase, SLF, MLF and other central bank open market operations, and treasury cash fixed deposits; In terms of reduction, we calculated the total daily liquidity reduction based on the cumulative increase of 1,601.066 billion yuan in M0 in December 2020 compared with December 2016, the cumulative decrease of 811.716 billion yuan in foreign exchange holdings and the cumulative increase of 986.866 billion yuan in fiscal deposits, and roughly estimated the liquidity through residents' cash withdrawals, the decrease in foreign exchange holdings and the loss of tax revenue, and considered the maturity of open market operations. At the same time, we monitor the maturity of open market operations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a306434fbba9a99088fd2e91d87d106\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"1136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bonds</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Review</p><p>On September 22nd, in the convertible bond market, CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 415.11 points, up 0.43% daily, convertible bond index closed at 1735.61 points, up 0.42% daily, and convertible bond plan index closed at 1449.60 points, down 0.04% daily; The average convertible bond price is 144.52, and the average parity is 113.55 yuan. Among the 376 listed and traded convertible bonds, except Yingke Convertible Bonds, Jiuzhou Convertible Bonds and Qingshui Convertible Bonds, 191 rose, 1 traded sideways and 181 fell. Among them, Mengdian Convertible Bonds (16.03%), Pu Nai Convertible Bonds (14.42%) and Qixiang Zhuan 2 (12.23%) led the gains, while Shida Convertible Bonds (-12.29%), Hongxin Convertible Bonds (-8.20%) and Jiuwu Convertible Bonds (-5.86%) led the decline. underlying shares of 370 convertible bonds, 171 rose, 8 traded sideways and 191 fell. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688388\">Jiayuan Technology</a>（15.84%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300682\">Langxin Technology</a>(13.11%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600863\">Inner Mongolia Huadian</a>(10.08%) led the gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002527\">New Star</a>（-9.97%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300657\">Hongxin Electronics</a>(-9.31%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300631\">Jiugo Hi-Tech</a>(-8.04%) led the decline.</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Weekly View</p><p>Last week, the market rose first and then fell, and the convertible bond index fell rapidly after rising. Structurally, there is an obvious equilibrium in the market style. The pharmaceutical and other sectors that were hit hard in the early stage began to strengthen, while the strong cycle sector adjusted significantly.</p><p>Recently, there has been a lot of discussion on the valuation of convertible bonds in the market, and the stock valuation was also compressed last week. However, we believe that valuation is not the core factor in the current market. Further, considering the large structural differentiation of valuation, the reference significance of the overall valuation level of the market has also decreased. Strategically, we continue the direction of equilibrium, and at present, it is the stage of allocation rebalancing. We believe that the increasing market volatility is the stage of stepping up the layout in some directions. The core of balancing the direction is to select individual coupons. The alpha of the market is more obvious, and the opportunities will not be limited. While convertible bonds maintain high flexibility, some positions can be increased to pay attention to the low valuation targets of underlying shares with thick price safety cushions.</p><p>The cyclical sector is a variety with rapid volatility recently. As the global economy begins to face growth pressure, it will further suppress the potential demand for commodities. At the same time, the high upstream prices will also have a negative impact on the downstream demand. Behind the upstream and downstream game, we pay more attention to the direction where supply is limited or demand still has potential boost space, such as crude oil, UHV, public utilities and environmental protection.</p><p>Recently, the pan-consumption sector has suffered a continuous impact, among which the emotion is suspected of overreaction. After the impact, it is still worth paying attention to this direction. With the decline of economic growth momentum, the consumption sector, which has been adjusted a lot recently, may show stable characteristics again. Although the epidemic has constituted a certain disturbance, there are many directions of sustained prosperity in consumption, and some targets have also reached new highs. Investors are advised to pay more attention to this direction. At the same time, we can increase our attention to the financial sector.</p><p>For the growth and manufacturing direction recommended in the past few months, it is also the structural hot spot of the current market, and there are still targets that continue to hit new highs in the near future. However, looking forward, more attention should be paid to alpha in this direction. We suggest preferring the allocation of leading coupons. The main logical direction is suggested to investigate from two perspectives: domestic substitution and technological upgrading, focusing on semiconductors, auto parts, wind power, photovoltaic, pharmaceutical industry, communication and other sectors. However, the current focus is on balancing the choice of positions and actively responding to fluctuations in market sentiment.</p><p>The highly flexible portfolio proposal focuses on Dongcai Transfer 3, Xinchun Convertible Bonds, Sly Convertible Bonds, Jiayuan (Jinbo) Convertible Bonds, Jincheng (Binhua) Convertible Bonds, Aojia Convertible Bonds, Enjie Convertible Bonds, Jinko Convertible Bonds, Biyin Convertible Bonds and Jingda Convertible Bonds.</p><p>It is recommended to pay attention to Hangyin Convertible Bonds, Mona (Hailan) Convertible Bonds, Wangneng Convertible Bonds, Tianhao Convertible Bonds, Taihua Convertible Bonds, Tianneng (Funeng) Convertible Bonds, Wencan Convertible Bonds, Runjian Convertible Bonds and Langxin Convertible Bonds.</p><p>Risk Factors</p><p>Market liquidity fluctuated greatly, macroeconomic growth was not as good as expected, risk-free interest rates fluctuated greatly, and underlying shares stock price fluctuated beyond expectations.</p><p>Stock market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294bd133a63473e9163b00961accb856\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bond market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6a015caa67dc2b92dd786923292bd\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CITIC Securities Mingming Research Team</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1804bd2a58f1fc4b3242b88f2f02977b\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-23/doc-iktzscyx5801703.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36976bdc18f7089989d74786b5b12ee","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","600030":"中信证券","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","06030":"中信证券","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-23/doc-iktzscyx5801703.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2169665501","content_text":"核心观点\n9月议息会议，美联储维持基准利率和购债规模不变，声明中提及“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。经济预测和点阵图显示加息预期进一步提前。鲍威尔讲话较为鹰派，表示缩减购债规模的条件最早可能在下次会议上得到满足。我们认为，按照本次会议声明和鲍威尔讲话，Taper或将在11月宣布，12月开始实施，节奏可能是每月缩减150亿美元购债，至明年年中结束，美债利率拐点或取决于债务上限解决时间。\n议息会议结果：利率工具方面，在本次议息会议上，美联储继续将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变；资产购买方面，美联储称“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”，并重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS。经济预期方面，美联储增加了“近几个月，受大流行影响最严重的行业情况有所改善但病例增加延缓了复苏进展”，通胀的描述由“上升（has risen）”改为“位于高位（is elevated）”，但仍是暂时的。\n政策利率预测与经济前景预测：政策利率预测的点阵图显示，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有9位委员预计将在2022年加息，17位委员预计将在2023年加息。经济前景预测方面，美联储大幅下调今年经济增长预测，上调通胀预测。预期2021年GDP增长5.9%，今年6月预期7.0%；预期2021年失业率为4.8%，今年6月预期4.5%；预期2021年PCE通胀率为4.2%，今年6月预期3.4%；预期2021年核心PCE通胀率为3.7%，今年6月预期3.0%。\n鲍威尔讲话要点：在通货膨胀方面已经取得了实质性进展；就自己和许多FOMC成员而言，就业问题取得了实质性进展；声明中的措辞意味着，缩减购债规模的条件最早可能在下次会议上得到满足。如果经济走势继续与预期一致，可以很容易地在下次会议上采取紧缩措施，缩减购债规模可能在明年年中左右结束。缩债将是渐进的，预计不需要加快缩债步伐；在评估最大就业时，确实要看不同的人口统计指标，失业率持续的种族差距相当令人不安。\n近期美国基本面情况：疫情方面，新型冠状病毒新增确诊人数回落，疫情边际趋缓和。就业方面，新增非农就业人数继续增长，但8月增幅远低于预期，创2021年1月以来新低，居民对于疫情的担忧加剧是新增非农就业人数远低于市场预期的主要原因。通胀方面，8月PPI再创新高，CPI涨幅驱缓但仍在高位，能源项是CPI主要增长项，市场通胀预期有所缓和。消费方面，8月零售数据大超市场预期，消费者信心呈边际向好趋势。投资方面，耐用品新增订单增速持续改善，但边际有所驱缓。经济景气方面，8月ISM制造业和非制造业PMI显示经济复苏放缓，但仍然处于相对高位的扩张区间。\nTaper靴子基本落地，鲍威尔拿走“酒杯”不唱“鸽”。本次议息会议声明首次明确对缩减购债规模给出信息。鲍威尔在此后的讲话中也对Taper着墨较多，同时没有继续以往一贯的“鸽”派言论，而是更多对Taper进行铺垫。从议息会议声明首次提及缩减购债以及鲍威尔之后的表述来看，Taper的靴子已经基本落地。\n点阵图和经济预测继续显示加息预期提前，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。本次会议上，点阵图和经济预测表明美联储对于长期经济增长乐观，对于通胀较为担忧。同时，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上也并未像6月时一味强调点阵图只是个人预测，表明此次点阵图显示的加息提前预示着政策或将发生转变，在高通胀和金融稳定的压力下，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。\nTaper或将在11月宣布，12月开始实施，节奏可能是每月缩减150亿美元购债，至明年年中结束，美债利率拐点或取决于债务上限解决时间。如果就业不出现超预期恶化，那么美联储大概率会在接下来的11月FOMC议息会议上宣布Taper，并从12月开始实施Taper。关于Taper的节奏，要保证明年年中结束Taper，如果按照上一轮经验，每次议息会议缩减150亿美元购债的节奏，那么Taper将到明年三季度结束，因此我们认为不排除本轮Taper按照每月缩减150亿美元的节奏进行，至明年年中结束。随着美联储沟通持续性的保持，当前Taper已经不是决定美债利率拐点的核心因素，美债利率拐点或取决于美国债务上限的解决时间，可能在10月底附近出现。\n正文\n议息会议结果\n利率工具方面，在本次议息会议上，美联储继续将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变，重申将维持利率在当前水平直至实现其最大就业和物价稳定的双重目标。理事会一致投票决定将准备金余额支付的利率维持在0.15%，自2021年9月23日起生效。基础信贷利率维持在0.25%不变，继续按兵不动，符合市场预期。\n资产购买方面，美联储称“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。美联储重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS，并根据促进平稳的市场运作、提供宽松金融条件的需要来增持国债和MBS、购买CMBS，从而支持信贷流向家庭和企业；进行报价利率为0.05%的隔夜逆回购协议操作，每天每方交易限额为1600亿美元。\n经济预期方面，美联储增加了“近几个月，受大流行影响最严重的行业情况有所改善但病例增加延缓了复苏进展”；通胀的描述由“上升（has risen）”改为“位于高位（is elevated）”。随着疫苗接种取得进展和强有力的政策支持，经济活动和就业指标继续增强。最近几个月，受疫情影响最严重的行业有所改善，但COVID-19病例的增加减缓了其复苏。通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素。经济的演进路径继续取决于病毒的发展进程。疫苗接种方面的进展可能会继续减少公共卫生危机对经济的影响，但经济前景面临的风险仍然存在。\n美联储政策利率预测与经济预测\n本次议息会议美联储更新了政策利率预测与经济预测。政策利率预测的点阵图显示，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有9位委员预计将在2022年加息，17位委员预计将在2023年加息，2024年可能加息6-7次。\n\n美国经济前景预测，经济增长方面，美联储预期2021年GDP增长5.9%，今年6月预期7.0%；预期2022年增长3.8%，今年6月预期3.3%；预期2023年增长2.5%，今年6月预期2.4%；预期2024年增长2.0%；更长周期预计增长1.8%，今年6月预期增长1.8%。\n失业率方面，美联储预期2021年为4.8%，今年6月预期4.5%；预期2022年为3.8%，今年6月预期3.8%；预期2023年为3.5%，今年6月预期3.5%；预期2024年增长3.5%；更长周期预期为4.0%，今年6月预期4.0%。\n通胀方面，美联储预期2021年PCE通胀率为4.2%，今年6月预期3.4%；预期2022年为2.2%，今年6月预期2.1%；预期2023年为2.2%，今年6月预期2.2%；预期2024年增长2.1%；更长周期预期为2.0%，今年6月预期2.0%。预期2021年核心PCE通胀率为3.7%，今年6月预期3.0%；预期2022年为2.3%，今年6月预期2.1%；预期2023年为2.2%，今年6月预期2.1%；预期2024年增长2.1%。\n\n鲍威尔的讲话\n美联储主席鲍威尔在当日新闻发布会上表示：如果经济走势继续与预期一致，可以很容易地在下次会议上采取紧缩措施。委员会今天讨论了实现目标的进展，就自己和许多FOMC成员而言，就业问题取得了实质性进展。如果持续出现进展，缩减购债规模可能很快就会得到保证，缩减购债规模可能在明年年中左右结束。\nTaper方面，鲍威尔表示：在通货膨胀方面已经取得了实质性进展；就自己和许多FOMC成员而言，就业问题取得了实质性进展；声明中的措辞意味着，缩减购债规模最早可能在下次会议上得到满足；大部分FOMC成员支持缩债的时间和速度；资产购买仍有其用途，但现在是缩减资产购买的时候了。在缩减购债计划结束之前，不会出现加息。如果时机合适，美联储当然可以加快或放慢缩减购债的速度。缩债将是渐进的，预计不需要加快缩债步伐；在评估最大就业时，确实要看不同的人口统计指标。\n经济预期方面，鲍威尔表示：经济前景仍然存在风险；Delta毒株减缓了经济复苏；疫苗接种的持续进展将支持经济恢复到更正常的状态；在今年剩下的时间里，增长可能会继续保持强劲的步伐；受疫情影响的行业复苏缓慢；供应限制抑制经济活动。\n就业方面，鲍威尔表示：劳动力需求非常强劲，失业率高估了就业缺口，护理需求和对病毒的持续担忧影响就业增长，但应该会随着时间的推移而消失；劳动力市场仍然有很多闲置的地方；许多联邦公开市场委员会成员认为在就业方面已经取得了实质性的进一步进展，观点是“几乎达到”。Delta毒株影响了人们重返工作岗位，人们可能需要更多的时间才能回到工作岗位；失业率持续的种族差距相当令人不安，消除种族差异是财政政策比美联储的工具更适合的事情。\n通胀方面，鲍威尔表示：通货膨胀正在上升，并且在缓和之前可能会持续数月；供应瓶颈，雇佣困难可能会再次比预期更大，更持久。长期通胀预期指标仍然与长期通胀目标一致，如果持续的高通胀是一个担忧，我们肯定会做出回应。今年和今后几年的通胀预测有所上升，这反映出瓶颈和短缺尚未以“有意义的方式”减轻。\n债务上限方面，鲍威尔表示：及时提高债务上限非常重要；如果不这样做，可能会对经济造成严重损害；美国不应该违约，没有人应该假设美联储能在违约的情况下完全保护市场或经济。\n美国近期基本面\n近日，美国新型冠状病毒新增确诊人数回落，美国疫情情况边际趋缓和。截至2021年9月21日，美国新型冠状病毒累计确诊人数达到4324万人，累计死亡人数70万人，美国新型冠状病毒当日确诊人数为13万人，比上一日减少了8万人。美国疫情扩散的放缓或与疫苗普及率逐渐提高有关，美国新型冠状病毒新增确诊病例从9月13日以来呈下降趋势。\n\n就业方面，从非农就业人数变化来看，美国8月季调后非农就业人口增加23.5万人，预期增加72万人，新增非农就业人数创2021年1月以来新低，同时失业率降至5.2%，为2020年3月以来新低。8月美国新增非农就业人数远低于前值和市场预期，从新增非农就业人数走势来看，尽管随着美国疫苗接种速度的加快，以及在部分州失业救济金提前停发的带动下，6月和7月新增非农就业人数大幅增长，连续高于市场预期。但是此前的非农就业数据并未反映新一轮Delta变异毒株引发的疫情反弹给就业市场带来的扰动，8月非农就业数据在疫情扰动下，远低于市场预期。\nDelta变异毒株造成疫情反弹，居民对于疫情的担忧加剧是新增非农就业人数远低于市场预期的主要原因。具体来看，此前新增非农就业人数的主要来源休闲酒店业意外零增长导致非农就业数据弱于预期，相较7月环比减少约41.5万人。专业和商业服务业维持增加，录得7.4万人，环比减少约0.5万人，但仍然成为了8月新增非农就业人数最多的行业，仓储运输业增加5.32万人。政府部门就业人数环比减少约26.3万人，由前值增加25.5万人变为今值的减少0.8万人；教育和保健服务新增就业人数环比减少约5.3万人。从行业数据上来看，美国服务业就业人数增长放缓，是导致就业人数大幅低于整体增幅的主要因素之一。新一轮疫情对消费及就业活动的冲击都高于预期，在Delta毒株引发的新一轮感染高峰仍未过去之际，民众自发减少外出令经济活动继续受到冲击，个人教育和重返职场的计划也被打乱。\n\n通胀方面，8月PPI再创新高，CPI涨幅驱缓，能源项是CPI主要增长项。8月未季调CPI同比增长5.3%，预期增长5.3%；未季调核心CPI同比增长4.0%，预期增长4.2%。季调后CPI环比增长0.3%，预期增长0.4%；季调后核心CPI环比增长0.1%，预期增长0.3%。PPI同比增长8.3%，再创历史新高。8月CPI同比增速最高的仍是能源项。前期推动CPI持续上涨的交通运输服务以及二手车价格涨势均有所收敛。能源价格同比上涨25%，其中，汽油价格环比增长2.8%，同比增长42.7%，食品价格同比上行3.7%。虽然8月CPI同比仍然维持高位，但涨幅驱缓，市场通胀预期有所缓和。\n\n消费方面，零售数据大超市场预期，消费者信心呈边际向好趋势。美国8月零售数据环比增长0.7%，远超市场预期的-0.7%，同比增长15.37%。美国公布的9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数小幅升至71，8月终值为70.3，略超预期。由于德尔塔毒株的传播而导致的新冠病例增加正在减缓，消费者信心指数或持续反弹。但与春季和疫情前水平相比，在疫情影响下，当前市场情绪仍然低迷。\n\n投资方面，近来美国耐用品新增订单月同比起伏不定，7月同比录得10.99%，6月同比录得24.17%，继续2020年11月以来的正值，反映美国投资状况改善，但边际增速有所驱缓。美国7月季调后耐用品除运输外新增订单同比增加15.56%，6月同比为18.50%。美国耐用品新增订单和除运输外耐用品新增订单的持续增长或反映了美国投资状况的持续改善，但边际增速有所驱缓。\n\n经济景气方面，8月ISM制造业和非制造业PMI显示复苏放缓，但仍然处于相对高位。美国8月ISM制造业PMI为59.9，与7月59.5相比有略微抬升，但比5月份的61.2仍有一定差距，受到疫情反弹影响，复苏进度受阻。分项方面，物价有大幅变动，从7月的85.7下降到79.4，供应商交付由7月的72.5小幅下跌到69.5。美国8月ISM非制造业PMI为61.7，较7月的64.1显著回落。分项方面， 商业活动指数60.1，较上月的67下降6.9个百分点，创下六个月新低，凸显Delta变异毒株正在降低人们对外出就餐、休闲和旅行等的需求；就业分项由53.8小幅回落至53.7；库存分项从7月的49.2下降至8月的46.9，跌至近一年来的最低水平。\n\n点评\nTaper靴子基本落地，鲍威尔拿走“酒杯”不唱“鸽”。本次议息会议声明首次明确对缩减购债规模给出信息，即“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。鲍威尔在此后的讲话中也对Taper着墨较多，同时没有继续以往一贯的“鸽”派言论，而是更多对Taper进行铺垫，例如通胀已经取得实质性进展，许多FOMC成员表示，就业问题取得了实质性进展，声明中的措辞意味着，缩减购债规模的条件最早可能在下次会议上得到满足等。从议息会议声明首次提及缩减购债以及鲍威尔之后的表述来看，Taper的靴子已经基本落地。\n点阵图和经济预测继续显示加息预期提前，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。本次会议上，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有9位委员预计将在2022年加息，17位委员预计将在2023年加息，2024年可能加息6-7次。在6月议息会议时，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有7位委员预计将在2022年加息，13位委员预计将在2023年加息。在经济预测中，美联储大幅下调了今年的GDP增速预测，但上调了2022年和2023年的GDP增速预测，同时大幅上调今年的通胀预测，小幅上调2022年的通胀预测，表明美联储对于长期经济增长乐观，对于通胀较为担忧。同时，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上也并未像6月时一味强调点阵图只是个人预测，表明此次点阵图显示的加息提前预示着政策或将发生转变，在高通胀和金融稳定的压力下，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。\nTaper或将在11月宣布，12月开始实施，节奏可能是每月缩减150亿美元购债，至明年年中结束，美债利率拐点或取决于债务上限解决时间。按照本次议息会议声明和鲍威尔的讲话来看，如果就业不出现超预期恶化，那么美联储大概率会在接下来的11月FOMC议息会议上宣布Taper，并从12月开始实施Taper。关于Taper的节奏，要保证明年年中结束Taper，如果按照上一轮经验，每次议息会议缩减150亿美元购债的节奏，那么Taper将到明年三季度结束，因此我们认为不排除本轮Taper按照每月缩减150亿美元的节奏进行，至明年年中结束。随着美联储沟通持续性的保持，当前Taper已经不是决定美债利率拐点的核心因素，美债利率拐点或取决于美国债务上限的解决时间，可能在10月底附近出现。\n市场回顾\n利率债\n资金面市场回顾\n2021年9月22日，银存间质押式回购加权利率涨跌互现，隔夜、7天、14天、21天和1个月分别变动了4.70bps、-1.54bps、9.10bps、0.67bp和-1.68bps至2.15%、2.23%、2.46%、2.60%和2.60%。国债到期收益率大体下行，1年、3年、5年、10年分别变动-5.87bps、-2.12bps、-0.87bp、-0.78bp至2.33%、2.56%、2.71%、2.86%。9月22日上证综指上涨0.40%至3628.49，深证成指下跌0.57%至14277.08，创业板指下跌0.91%至3164.33。\n央行公告称，为维护季末流动性平稳，9月22日以利率招标方式开展了600亿元7天期和600亿元14天期逆回购操作。今日央行公开市场开展600亿元7天逆回购操作和600亿元14天期逆回购操作，有300亿元逆回购到期，实现流动性净投放900亿元。此外，本周四至周五还有600亿元7天逆回购到期，周五有700亿元国库现金定存到期，周日有500亿元逆回购到期。\n流动性动态监测\n我们对市场流动性情况进行跟踪，观测2017年开年来至今流动性的“投与收”。增量方面，我们根据逆回购、SLF、MLF等央行公开市场操作、国库现金定存等规模计算总投放量；减量方面，我们根据2020年12月对比2016年12月M0累计增加16010.66亿元，外汇占款累计下降8117.16亿元、财政存款累计增加9868.66亿元，粗略估计通过居民取现、外占下降和税收流失的流动性，并考虑公开市场操作到期情况，计算每日流动性减少总量。同时，我们对公开市场操作到期情况进行监控。\n\n可转债\n可转债市场回顾\n9月22日转债市场，中证转债指数收于415.11点，日上涨0.43%，可转债指数收于1735.61点，日上涨0.42%，可转债预案指数收于1449.60点，日下跌0.04%；平均转债价格144.52，平均平价为113.55元。376支上市交易可转债，除英科转债、九洲转债和清水转债停牌，191支上涨，1支横盘，181支下跌。其中蒙电转债（16.03%）、濮耐转债（14.42%）和齐翔转2（12.23%）领涨，时达转债（-12.29%）、弘信转债（-8.20%）和久吾转债（-5.86%）领跌。370支可转债正股，171支上涨，8支横盘，191支下跌。其中嘉元科技（15.84%）、朗新科技（13.11%）和内蒙华电（10.08%）领涨，新时达（-9.97%）、弘信电子（-9.31%）和久吾高科（-8.04%）领跌。\n可转债市场周观点\n上周市场先扬后抑，转债指数冲高后快速回落。结构上看市场风格出现了较为明显的均衡，前期饱受冲击的医药等板块开始走强，而强势周期板块则调整明显。\n最近市场对转债估值问题讨论颇多，上周股性估值也有所压缩，但我们认为估值并不是当前市场的核心左右因素，进一步考虑到估值的结构分化较大，市场的总体估值水平的参考意义也有所下降。策略上我们继续着均衡的方向，当前正是配置再平衡的阶段。我们认为市场波动加大正是部分方向加紧布局的阶段，在方向上做好平衡的核心是精选个券，市场的alpha更为明显，机会并不会受到局限，转债保持高弹性的同时可以增加部分仓位关注价格安全垫较厚的正股低估值标的。\n周期板块是近期波动迅速增大的品种，随着全球经济开始面临增长压力也会进一步抑制商品的潜在需求，同时上游价格的高企也对下游的需求产生负面影响。上下游博弈的背后更加关注供给受限或是需求仍有潜在提振空间的方向，例如原油、特高压、公用事业环保等板块。\n近期泛消费板块遭遇持续的冲击，其中情绪有一定过度反应的嫌疑，冲击过后仍然值得重视这一方向。随着经济增长动能的回落，近期调整颇多的消费板块可能会再次展现出稳健的特性，虽然疫情构成了一定的扰动，但消费中存在不少景气度持续的方向，部分标的也创出了新高，建议投资者对这一方向增加关注。同时我们可以增加对金融板块的关注。\n对于过去数月重点推荐的成长制造方向，也是当前市场结构性热点所在，近期仍旧有持续创出新高的标的。但往后看这一方向应更加看重alpha，我们建议优选龙头个券配置。主要逻辑方向建议从国产替代与技术升级两大角度去考察，重点关注半导体、汽车零部件、风电、光伏、医药工业、通信等板块。但当前的重点是均衡持仓的选择，积极应对市场情绪的波动。\n高弹性组合建议重点关注东财转3、新春转债、斯莱转债、嘉元（金博）转债、金诚（滨化）转债、奥佳转债、恩捷转债、晶科转债、比音转债、精达转债。\n稳健弹性组合建议关注杭银转债、蒙娜（海澜）转债、旺能转债、天壕转债、台华转债、天能（福能）转债、文灿转债、润建转债、朗新转债。\n风险因素\n市场流动性大幅波动，宏观经济增速不如预期，无风险利率大幅波动，正股股价超预期波动。\n股票市场\n\n转债市场\n\n中信证券明明研究团队","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"600030":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"06030":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817471897,"gmtCreate":1630984226919,"gmtModify":1676530434607,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817471897","repostId":"2165338208","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838191116,"gmtCreate":1629379823735,"gmtModify":1676530021256,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why not?","listText":"Why not?","text":"Why not?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838191116","repostId":"1122010518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122010518","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629378862,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122010518?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 21:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will U.S. Stocks Be Intimidated by the Fed? Are you overreacting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122010518","media":"英为财情","summary":"美联储会议纪要特别强调了缩债决定是与加息时机无关的。","content":"<p><div>Author: Pan Yiheng In the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its July meeting. At this meeting, the Federal Reserve said it remained confident in the U.S. economic recovery, even though the Delta variant of the virus is causing an increase in cases. Officials also continue to prepare for the eventual end of a $120 billion monthly Treasury bond and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program. First of all, it is certain that the Federal Reserve explicitly discussed tapering its bond purchases for the first time at its July monetary policy meeting, and the minutes show that most Fed policymakers believe that if the economic recovery meets expectations, they will slow down their monthly purchases of $120 billion in government bonds later this year...</p><p><a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200466777\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"ywcq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will U.S. Stocks Be Intimidated by the Fed? Are you overreacting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill U.S. Stocks Be Intimidated by the Fed? Are you overreacting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">英为财情</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 21:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Author: Pan Yiheng In the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its July meeting. At this meeting, the Federal Reserve said it remained confident in the U.S. economic recovery, even though the Delta variant of the virus is causing an increase in cases. Officials also continue to prepare for the eventual end of a $120 billion monthly Treasury bond and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program. First of all, it is certain that the Federal Reserve explicitly discussed tapering its bond purchases for the first time at its July monetary policy meeting, and the minutes show that most Fed policymakers believe that if the economic recovery meets expectations, they will slow down their monthly purchases of $120 billion in government bonds later this year...</p><p><a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200466777\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200466777\">英为财情</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8563c55eda230bf12ce63dc5314b95d0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200466777","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122010518","content_text":"作者：潘奕衡\n北京时间周四凌晨，美联储公布7月会议纪要。美联储在这次会议上表示对美国经济复苏仍有信心，尽管Delta变种病毒正导致病例增加。官员们还继续为最终结束每月1,200亿美元的公债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)购买计划做准备。\n首先可以肯定的是，美联储在7月货币政策会议上首次明确讨论了缩减购债，同时纪要显示多数联储决策者认为，若经济复苏符合预期，今年晚些时候将放慢每月购买1,200亿美元公债和抵押支持证券(MBS)的步伐。\n但是需要特别强调的是，美联储决策者们对于何时开启缩减购债规模依然存在分歧，有些官员认为应该很快减少并结束购债，有的人认为美联储应该耐心等待就业市场更充分地恢复。需要特别指出的是，美联储会议纪要特别强调了缩债决定是与加息时机无关的。\n美股反应过度？\n所以，在我们看来这是一份较为鸽派的会议纪要，按道理来讲应该对美股是有一定的利好才对，但是事实正好相反，美国主要股指全线下跌。\n数据显示，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌382.59点，或1.08%，报34,960.69点；美国标准普尔500指数下跌47.81点，或1.07%，报4,400.27点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌130.27点，或0.89%，报14,525.91点。\n道琼斯工业指数、标普500、纳斯达克综合指数5分钟图，来源：Investing.com\n看起来似乎是美股有些反应过度了。相比于很多鹰派美联储官员要求的在9月份宣布缩减资产购买，本次会议纪要已经算是比较鸽派的。我们在上一篇文章“恐怖数据”暗藏杀机，美股达摩克利斯之剑高悬中也有提及，目前美联储缩减购债还有一段距离，加息更是可能要到2022年底甚至2023年，对于美股来讲还是有一定的缓冲期的。\n汇市债市解读相反\n相比股市，外汇市场和国债市场的反应就比较正常。美元指数期货在纪要发布后一度跳水逾30个基点，刷新日内低位至92.94，不过稍后就收回了全部跌幅，并继续上扬，主要还是受避险情绪的支撑。而美国十年期国债收益率在消息公布后一直处于下跌走势。由此可见，这两个市场对会议纪要的解读是鸽派的。\n美元指数期货5分钟图，来源：Investing.com\n总结\n美股真的反应过度了吗？也许是市场对美联储的解读不同，也许是美股真的有点“恐高”了。美股的牛市已经持续了很长一段时间，整个市场都在赚钱，不论你是散户还是投行或者对冲基金，所有人都在赚钱。\n三大股指不断的刷新历史新高，标准普尔500指数有望在今年创下78个收盘新高纪录，这将超过 1995 年创下的 77 个。近期防御类股票和避险资产频频受到市场的追捧，或许投资者们都在小心翼翼的提防着随时可能出现的泡沫破灭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"content":"everything is possible","text":"everything is possible","html":"everything is possible"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114638276,"gmtCreate":1623071558895,"gmtModify":1704195417894,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So run now?","listText":"So run now?","text":"So run now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114638276","repostId":"1126396501","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198131189,"gmtCreate":1620945168741,"gmtModify":1704350753736,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bubble ??","listText":"Bubble ??","text":"Bubble ??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198131189","repostId":"1116555518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}