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08-23

To The moon - Become a Contributor

Find out more here:To The moon - Become a Contributor Click to view this week's hot topics! Start posting and stand a chance to get cool rewards

To The moon - Become a Contributor

08-23

2022-06-08

Good

Jidu Car Manufacturing delivers its "answer sheet": Concept car released, production version to be launched this fall.

2022-06-07

Great

@硬科技:高仙機器人：新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元

2022-06-07

123

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2022-06-04

123

@小咖科技:新機不息，套娃不止，無誠意的realme難以征戰AIoT市場

2022-06-04

123

A hawkish Federal Reserve official: Inflation has not peaked and several more 50 basis point rate hike are needed.

2022-06-01

123

SaaS concept stocks rose, with Salesforce gaining over 13%.

2022-05-29

123

The world's best stock trader, the central bank, suffered huge losses? What's going on?

2022-05-25

123

Will Nio' self-developed battery cells negatively impact CATL?

2022-05-24

123

Snap's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring

2022-05-24

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Snap's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring

2022-05-23

Risk and opportunity

Wall Street has huge differences in its predictions for the year-end performance of US stocks! Still guessing at the bottom?

2022-05-23

Risk and opportunity

Wall Street has huge differences in its predictions for the year-end performance of US stocks! Still guessing at the bottom?

2022-05-22

123

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2022-05-22

123

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2022-05-20

123

Has the "sanctions order" been sidelined? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly.

2022-05-20

123

Has the "sanctions order" been sidelined? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly.

2022-05-03

123

Night Reading | How to Find Ideal Trading Entry Positions?

2022-05-02

123

Apple faces EU antitrust lawsuit over payment issues

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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On the evening of June 8, Jidu released its first concept car, the ROBO-01. It is reported that Jidu plans to officially launch a limited edition of its first mass-produced model in the fall of 2022. The mass-produced model is 90% similar to the ROBO-01 concept car. 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On the evening of June 8, Jidu released its first concept car, the ROBO-01. It is reported that Jidu plans to officially launch a limited edition of its first mass-produced model in the fall of 2022. The mass-produced model is 90% similar to the ROBO-01 concept car. From officially announcing the creation of a smart car company in January 2021, to finalizing the design of the first mass-produced car in 100 days, to completing the visual and functional design of the robotic car concept car in a year, and then to unveiling the first concept car, ROBO-01, in less than a year and a half...</p><p><a href=\"https://m.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-08/2313584.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://m.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-08/2313584.html\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ae7d9112d50d31a74b7bbf5023ee6d","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","00175":"吉利汽车"},"source_url":"https://m.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-08/2313584.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109073629","content_text":"在高考第二日结束后，集度在造车问题上也交上了属于自己的一份“答卷”。6月8日晚，集度发布了品牌首款概念车ROBO-01。据悉，集度计划于2022年秋季正式推出其首款量产车型的限定版，量产车型拥有与ROBO-01概念车90%的相似度。从2021年1月官宣创建智能汽车公司，到用百天确定了首款量产车的造型设计，到用一年时间完成汽车机器人概念车的视觉与功能设计，再到不到一年半亮相首款概念车ROBO-01，集度在造车的进程方面不可谓不快。据了解，集度计划于2022年秋季正式推出其首款量产车型的限定版。此外，集度还将于今年的广州车展上发布其第二款量产车型的设计。首款量产车定价在20万元左右集度由百度与吉利合资成立，双方分别控股55%和45%。集度CEO夏一平此前曾表示，百度会在集度中做主导。具体而言，百度会在整体上负责端到端的服务，无论是软硬件都由百度主导进行。而借助百度在自动驾驶及智能座舱方面的积累，集度认为其产品的关键卖点不在于“电车”，而在于“智能”。公开资料显示，集度的首款产品将搭载百度诸多车载技术，包括无激光雷达纯视觉自动驾驶方案（ANP+AVP）、DuerOS 人工智能系统等，并搭载英伟达Orin X芯片和高通8295芯片，分别负责智能驾驶和智能座舱。图片来源：每经记者 孙磊 摄值得一提的是，集度首款产品的研发方式与传统汽车有所不同，其采取了\"敏捷开发\"模式，将智能座舱和智能驾驶的研发前置，从而缩短造车周期。据悉，集度借鉴飞机研发中的变稳飞机开发模式，推出集度SIMUCar（软件集成模拟样车），SIMUCar可以模拟未来车型的三电系统以及底盘系统，使得集度汽车能够在接近真实的整车环境下，研发和验证智能座舱、自动驾驶等功能，实现车辆工程和软件同步开发，提高研发效率。在2022年电动车百人会论坛期间，夏一平表示，在汽车制造方式方面，整个汽车的发展大方向是向着智能设备发展，但未来无论是打造四个轮子的机器人，还是在路上行走的机器人，采用造机器人的方式相对是比较通用的，而集度也将此次发布的概念车ROBO-01称作汽车机器人。“智能汽车3.0时代就是汽车机器人的时代，时代变革起点是汽车‘驾驶权’由人类向AI转移，AI驱动汽车进化。3.0时代的汽车行业将实现从能源变革向产品属性变革跃迁，其终极目标是汽车驾驶无人化。”夏一平说。除了智能化领域的积累之外，集度首款产品对比目前已有纯电动SUV最为直观的优势还在于其价格。与该车尺寸相近的特斯拉Model Y、福特Mustang Mach-E的售价在30万元左右。而百度CEO李彦宏在百度今年一季度财报电话会上透露，集度的目标市场是家庭用车，首款量产车定价在20万元左右，预计2023年量产交付。中国电子商会智能电动汽车专委会研究院副院长纪雪洪认为，集度汽车能否在2023年成功走向市场，取决于其“智能汽车机器人”的想法是否走得通。“对集度汽车而言，百度的自动驾驶技术储备是一大优势。但能否真正推出一个智能汽车机器人、从智能化的纬度进行竞争，是制约其取胜的关键因素。”纪雪洪告诉《每日经济新闻》记者。2024年交付第二款产品夏一平此前透露，集度首款产品使用的智能化架构JET可以实现软硬解耦，集度接下来每年都会基于该架构向市场投放一款新车。据悉，集度将于今年的广州车展，发布其第二款量产车型的设计，在2023年开始接受订单，并在2024年交付车辆。在车辆研发之外，集度还在推进产品制造、基础设施建设、渠道搭建等方面的布局。此前，有消息称，集度将在上海、北京两地设厂落地整车生产。对此，集度方面回应，集度没有在北京和上海设厂，集度首款车在吉利杭州湾工厂制造。值得一提的是，对于车企是否需要自建工厂或者采用代工的模式，夏一平曾公开透露过集度的想法。“整个造车的生命周期至少也得两三年，行业的变化是肯定的，但是短期我认为并不会发展到一个资源共享的代工模式。”夏一平认为，从整个世界发展看，地球资源是有限的，产能也不是无限扩张的，所以每一家公司最后再考虑本质的话还是回归核心：是自建工厂对公司有利还是走向资源共享带动模式，目前还是两种同时发展。除了在吉利工厂进行制造外，集度还会沿用吉利的供应链网络和供应链资源，且没有自建工厂的计划。夏一平认为，这可以降低供应商与新品牌合作的意愿，同时也可以降低产品成本。在基础设施建设方面，集度目前已在北京、上海两地分别设立了北京集度科技有限公司、上海集度汽车有限公司，注册资本均为3.09亿美元，法定代表人均为夏一平。两家新公司经营业务主要是新能源汽车整车及相关零部件的制造、销售、技术服务，以及新能源汽车换电设施销售、电动汽车充电基础设施运营等。图片来源：每经记者 孙磊 摄纪雪洪认为，当前完善新能源汽车配套设施已成为蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车等新能源车企提升用户体验的重要措施。“集度汽车与上述车企在配套设施方面有着明显差距，提早搭建充换电设施有助于在汽车产品推出时提供更好的服务。”纪雪洪说。在渠道建设上，集度将采取自建渠道模式，未来也不排除会探索一些新模式。不过，初期仍然会自建直营渠道。不难看出，集度正在为实现产品量产及以后的工作进行布局。江西新能源科技职业学院新能源汽车技术研究院院长张翔认为：“尽管今年国内新能源汽车销量快速增长，但仍有较大成长空间。因此集度等新玩家仍有机会。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00175":0.9,"BIDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051016643,"gmtCreate":1654608452782,"gmtModify":1676535477035,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051016643","repostId":"615171715","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615171715,"gmtCreate":1652859008437,"gmtModify":1676533118059,"author":{"id":"4091686409339050","authorId":"4091686409339050","name":"硬科技","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af5a3bfa4ca7d0599601f1fbecf0d30","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091686409339050","idStr":"4091686409339050"},"themes":[],"title":"高仙機器人：新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元","htmlText":"高仙機器人：商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元近日，高仙機器人發佈其商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”，這一產品在國內與海外同步銷售，海外名爲“Phantas”。據官方介紹，發佈當日，高仙機器人即簽單超1億元。（36氪）更多熱點資訊、洞察分析、研究報告、直播課程……敬請關注【硬科技】歡迎在各大主流平臺搜索【硬科技】，認準藍色logo的賬號！在這裏看見、讀懂和連接硬科技！我們聚焦光電芯片、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、智能汽車、生物醫藥、科創金融等行業，並依託於科技創新情報SaaS服務商智慧芽所擁有的獨特科技情報數據優勢，與讀者一起看見技術趨勢，讀懂硬科技產業，連接創新未來。“硬科技”由智慧芽創新研究中心出品。","listText":"高仙機器人：商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元近日，高仙機器人發佈其商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”，這一產品在國內與海外同步銷售，海外名爲“Phantas”。據官方介紹，發佈當日，高仙機器人即簽單超1億元。（36氪）更多熱點資訊、洞察分析、研究報告、直播課程……敬請關注【硬科技】歡迎在各大主流平臺搜索【硬科技】，認準藍色logo的賬號！在這裏看見、讀懂和連接硬科技！我們聚焦光電芯片、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、智能汽車、生物醫藥、科創金融等行業，並依託於科技創新情報SaaS服務商智慧芽所擁有的獨特科技情報數據優勢，與讀者一起看見技術趨勢，讀懂硬科技產業，連接創新未來。“硬科技”由智慧芽創新研究中心出品。","text":"高仙機器人：商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元近日，高仙機器人發佈其商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”，這一產品在國內與海外同步銷售，海外名爲“Phantas”。據官方介紹，發佈當日，高仙機器人即簽單超1億元。（36氪）更多熱點資訊、洞察分析、研究報告、直播課程……敬請關注【硬科技】歡迎在各大主流平臺搜索【硬科技】，認準藍色logo的賬號！在這裏看見、讀懂和連接硬科技！我們聚焦光電芯片、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、智能汽車、生物醫藥、科創金融等行業，並依託於科技創新情報SaaS服務商智慧芽所擁有的獨特科技情報數據優勢，與讀者一起看見技術趨勢，讀懂硬科技產業，連接創新未來。“硬科技”由智慧芽創新研究中心出品。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797612589130f0f9198e6259a4d95f43"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/615171715","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051018506,"gmtCreate":1654608394405,"gmtModify":1676535477004,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051018506","repostId":"1171329114","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059319855,"gmtCreate":1654302426677,"gmtModify":1676535427098,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059319855","repostId":"614023207","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614023207,"gmtCreate":1653295415610,"gmtModify":1676533137257,"author":{"id":"3561585442012100","authorId":"3561585442012100","name":"小咖科技","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c49940af36b09d1a12780ffb55f8fceb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561585442012100","idStr":"3561585442012100"},"themes":[],"title":"新機不息，套娃不止，無誠意的realme難以征戰AIoT市場","htmlText":"文/張詩雨在機海戰術的助推下，手機套娃成realme的慣用手段。但萬萬沒想到，其宣傳即將推出的旗下首款平板也將使用這種套娃手段，顯然，realme這是要在套娃的路上越走越遠。筆者曾在《濫用機海戰術的realme問題顯現，成立近四年依然難逃小衆品牌宿命》一文中指出，在realme去年發佈的一系列機型中，realme GT、realme GTNeo、realme X7 Ultra、realme Q3i、realme Q3以及realme Q3Pro，通過對比發現，realme就是“無限套娃”技術。比如GT、GTNeo、Q3Pro三款手機，都有相同的後置三攝模組、6.43英寸AMOLED屏、3D鋼化液冷散熱，以及4500mAh大電池等。realme GT Neo閃速版和realme GT Neo則更誇張，兩款手機均採用天璣1200SOC，支持WIFI6，屏幕也都採用三星AMOLED屏幕，都支持6400萬索尼廣角三攝，不同點只是配色和充電速度上。嚐到甜頭的realme如今又將這種套娃“技術”完美複製在其平板產品上。據此前媒體報道，真我即將發佈的旗下第一款平板realme Pad搭載驍龍870芯片，同時也會搭載2.5K分辨率的120Hz LCD屏幕，電池容量爲8360mAh。realme徐起表示，該產品將會是同價位“板王”。衆所周知，武俠小說中有一項絕技叫易容術，將易容工具套在頭上可以變換面目，人皮面具最爲精緻，據說能以假亂真，武林中許多高手皆擅此道，在江湖上行走時廣泛使用。realme瘋狂造勢下也難掩尷尬，套娃情景比電視劇情節還要精彩。OPPO在二月份發佈的OPPO pad也採用了2.5K 120Hz高刷新率屏幕，搭載高通驍龍870旗艦處理器，電池容量爲8360mAh。如果realme的新品果真是如此配置，可以說，又將是realme換湯不換藥的騷操作。值得注意的是，很多廠商不乏套娃","listText":"文/張詩雨在機海戰術的助推下，手機套娃成realme的慣用手段。但萬萬沒想到，其宣傳即將推出的旗下首款平板也將使用這種套娃手段，顯然，realme這是要在套娃的路上越走越遠。筆者曾在《濫用機海戰術的realme問題顯現，成立近四年依然難逃小衆品牌宿命》一文中指出，在realme去年發佈的一系列機型中，realme GT、realme GTNeo、realme X7 Ultra、realme Q3i、realme Q3以及realme Q3Pro，通過對比發現，realme就是“無限套娃”技術。比如GT、GTNeo、Q3Pro三款手機，都有相同的後置三攝模組、6.43英寸AMOLED屏、3D鋼化液冷散熱，以及4500mAh大電池等。realme GT Neo閃速版和realme GT Neo則更誇張，兩款手機均採用天璣1200SOC，支持WIFI6，屏幕也都採用三星AMOLED屏幕，都支持6400萬索尼廣角三攝，不同點只是配色和充電速度上。嚐到甜頭的realme如今又將這種套娃“技術”完美複製在其平板產品上。據此前媒體報道，真我即將發佈的旗下第一款平板realme Pad搭載驍龍870芯片，同時也會搭載2.5K分辨率的120Hz LCD屏幕，電池容量爲8360mAh。realme徐起表示，該產品將會是同價位“板王”。衆所周知，武俠小說中有一項絕技叫易容術，將易容工具套在頭上可以變換面目，人皮面具最爲精緻，據說能以假亂真，武林中許多高手皆擅此道，在江湖上行走時廣泛使用。realme瘋狂造勢下也難掩尷尬，套娃情景比電視劇情節還要精彩。OPPO在二月份發佈的OPPO pad也採用了2.5K 120Hz高刷新率屏幕，搭載高通驍龍870旗艦處理器，電池容量爲8360mAh。如果realme的新品果真是如此配置，可以說，又將是realme換湯不換藥的騷操作。值得注意的是，很多廠商不乏套娃","text":"文/張詩雨在機海戰術的助推下，手機套娃成realme的慣用手段。但萬萬沒想到，其宣傳即將推出的旗下首款平板也將使用這種套娃手段，顯然，realme這是要在套娃的路上越走越遠。筆者曾在《濫用機海戰術的realme問題顯現，成立近四年依然難逃小衆品牌宿命》一文中指出，在realme去年發佈的一系列機型中，realme GT、realme GTNeo、realme X7 Ultra、realme Q3i、realme Q3以及realme Q3Pro，通過對比發現，realme就是“無限套娃”技術。比如GT、GTNeo、Q3Pro三款手機，都有相同的後置三攝模組、6.43英寸AMOLED屏、3D鋼化液冷散熱，以及4500mAh大電池等。realme GT Neo閃速版和realme GT Neo則更誇張，兩款手機均採用天璣1200SOC，支持WIFI6，屏幕也都採用三星AMOLED屏幕，都支持6400萬索尼廣角三攝，不同點只是配色和充電速度上。嚐到甜頭的realme如今又將這種套娃“技術”完美複製在其平板產品上。據此前媒體報道，真我即將發佈的旗下第一款平板realme Pad搭載驍龍870芯片，同時也會搭載2.5K分辨率的120Hz LCD屏幕，電池容量爲8360mAh。realme徐起表示，該產品將會是同價位“板王”。衆所周知，武俠小說中有一項絕技叫易容術，將易容工具套在頭上可以變換面目，人皮面具最爲精緻，據說能以假亂真，武林中許多高手皆擅此道，在江湖上行走時廣泛使用。realme瘋狂造勢下也難掩尷尬，套娃情景比電視劇情節還要精彩。OPPO在二月份發佈的OPPO pad也採用了2.5K 120Hz高刷新率屏幕，搭載高通驍龍870旗艦處理器，電池容量爲8360mAh。如果realme的新品果真是如此配置，可以說，又將是realme換湯不換藥的騷操作。值得注意的是，很多廠商不乏套娃","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a643472d5d07d5b423ebb04fc5c6de9"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9cd8bf041073ef424d14dbcc76e8e93"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c15fad33c7f1803386273a925aa0bb0d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614023207","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059310620,"gmtCreate":1654302348660,"gmtModify":1676535427106,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059310620","repostId":"2240203501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2240203501","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654290414,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240203501?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 05:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A hawkish Federal Reserve official: Inflation has not peaked and several more 50 basis point rate hike are needed.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240203501","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"2022年票委克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特周五称，需要看到通胀正在回落的令人信服的证据，包括连续几个月的数据下降，才能得出通胀已经见顶的结论。如果通胀不降温，可能支持9月加息50个基点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, June 3, Eastern Time, 2022 voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester said he supports a 50 basis point rate hike in the coming months because he does not see enough evidence that inflation has peaked.</p><p>I still tend to support the FOMC rate hike by 50 basis points in June and July, respectively. If inflation fails to come down, I will support the FOMC in further rate hike by 50 basis points in September. On Friday, an earlier article in Wall Street Journal mentioned that the U.S. Department of Labor released its May non-farm payrolls report, which showed that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 390,000 in May, exceeding the expected 320,000, but lower than the 428,000 in April, marking the smallest 13-month increase since April 2021. Analysts point out that slowing wage growth will help alleviate inflation, and data shows that the labor market remains tight. When discussing the latest non-farm payroll data, Mester stated:</p><p>The (latest non-farm payrolls) jobs report is strong, and the slowdown in wage growth is also a good thing. We hope to see a correction in the job market to some extent. Hopefully, there will be convincing evidence that inflation is declining in the United States. While other recent data points suggest that at least the rate of inflationary increases has slowed, Mester stated that she needs to see this trend continue for several months before she can truly feel at ease:</p><p>I don't want to declare inflation a victory until I see really convincing evidence that our actions are starting to work in bringing demand down to a better balance with aggregate supply. It is too early to say that this will change our outlook or my policy outlook. The number one problem in the economy remains very high inflation, which is far above acceptable levels, and this must be our focus going forward. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in early May and hinted at similar rate hike in June and July to quickly bring interest rates to a level that neither stimulates nor slows the economy. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May meeting showed that officials were more open to what action to take in September, which would depend on inflation.</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic recently stated that if inflation falls faster than expected in the summer, the Fed may consider pausing rate hike in September, which would trigger a strong market reaction. However, Bostic, who proposed the idea of \"suspending rate hike in September\" last week, clarified this week that his views were unrelated to bailing out the market.</p><p>However, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who has always had voting rights at FOMC meetings during his tenure, rejected the idea of pausing rate hike in September, saying that he preferred the Fed's suspension of rate hike in September, which was just beginning to emerge, to \"cool down\" after hawkish remarks from rate hike at 50 basis points in the next \"few meetings\". On Thursday, Brainard, the Federal Reserve's second-in-command, also said, \"It's hard to find a reason to pause rate hike in September.\"</p><p>Mester, a hawk of the Federal Reserve, stated in mid-May that the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike in September had been put back on the agenda. However, Mester's comments on Thursday and Friday showed some change. On Thursday, she said:</p><p>If monthly inflation data provides convincing evidence at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September that inflation is declining, then rate hike may slow down. If inflation fails to ease, then it may be necessary to accelerate the pace of rate hike. However, Mester also warned that the risk of a recession in the United States is increasing, but a sharp economic slowdown can still be avoided.</p><p>Federal Reserve officials will hold their next policy meeting in two weeks, on June 14 and 15.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A hawkish Federal Reserve official: Inflation has not peaked and several more 50 basis point rate hike are needed.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA hawkish Federal Reserve official: Inflation has not peaked and several more 50 basis point rate hike are needed.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 05:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, June 3, Eastern Time, 2022 voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester said he supports a 50 basis point rate hike in the coming months because he does not see enough evidence that inflation has peaked.</p><p>I still tend to support the FOMC rate hike by 50 basis points in June and July, respectively. If inflation fails to come down, I will support the FOMC in further rate hike by 50 basis points in September. On Friday, an earlier article in Wall Street Journal mentioned that the U.S. Department of Labor released its May non-farm payrolls report, which showed that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 390,000 in May, exceeding the expected 320,000, but lower than the 428,000 in April, marking the smallest 13-month increase since April 2021. Analysts point out that slowing wage growth will help alleviate inflation, and data shows that the labor market remains tight. When discussing the latest non-farm payroll data, Mester stated:</p><p>The (latest non-farm payrolls) jobs report is strong, and the slowdown in wage growth is also a good thing. We hope to see a correction in the job market to some extent. Hopefully, there will be convincing evidence that inflation is declining in the United States. While other recent data points suggest that at least the rate of inflationary increases has slowed, Mester stated that she needs to see this trend continue for several months before she can truly feel at ease:</p><p>I don't want to declare inflation a victory until I see really convincing evidence that our actions are starting to work in bringing demand down to a better balance with aggregate supply. It is too early to say that this will change our outlook or my policy outlook. The number one problem in the economy remains very high inflation, which is far above acceptable levels, and this must be our focus going forward. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in early May and hinted at similar rate hike in June and July to quickly bring interest rates to a level that neither stimulates nor slows the economy. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May meeting showed that officials were more open to what action to take in September, which would depend on inflation.</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic recently stated that if inflation falls faster than expected in the summer, the Fed may consider pausing rate hike in September, which would trigger a strong market reaction. However, Bostic, who proposed the idea of \"suspending rate hike in September\" last week, clarified this week that his views were unrelated to bailing out the market.</p><p>However, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who has always had voting rights at FOMC meetings during his tenure, rejected the idea of pausing rate hike in September, saying that he preferred the Fed's suspension of rate hike in September, which was just beginning to emerge, to \"cool down\" after hawkish remarks from rate hike at 50 basis points in the next \"few meetings\". On Thursday, Brainard, the Federal Reserve's second-in-command, also said, \"It's hard to find a reason to pause rate hike in September.\"</p><p>Mester, a hawk of the Federal Reserve, stated in mid-May that the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike in September had been put back on the agenda. However, Mester's comments on Thursday and Friday showed some change. On Thursday, she said:</p><p>If monthly inflation data provides convincing evidence at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September that inflation is declining, then rate hike may slow down. If inflation fails to ease, then it may be necessary to accelerate the pace of rate hike. However, Mester also warned that the risk of a recession in the United States is increasing, but a sharp economic slowdown can still be avoided.</p><p>Federal Reserve officials will hold their next policy meeting in two weeks, on June 14 and 15.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661072\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661072","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240203501","content_text":"美东时间6月3日周五，2022年票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特表示其支持在未来几个月加息50个基点，因为其并没有看到足够的证据表明通胀已经见顶。我仍然倾向于支持FOMC在6月和7月分别加息50个基点。如果通胀没能回落，我将支持FOMC在9月份进一步加息50个基点。周五，华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及美国劳工部发布5月非农就业报告，数据显示，美国5月非农就业新增39万，超过预期的32万人，但逊于4月前值的42.8万人，并创2021年4月以来的13个月最小增幅。分析指出，薪资增幅放缓有助于缓解通胀，数据显示劳动力市场依旧趋紧。梅斯特在谈及最新出炉的非农数据时表示：（最新发布的非农）就业报告是强劲的，薪资增速放缓也是好事。 希望看到就业市场在一定程度上出现回调。希望有令人信服的证据表明美国出现通胀下滑趋势。虽然最近的其他数据点显示，至少通胀上升的速度已经减弱，但梅斯特表示，她需要看到这种趋势延续多个月后才能真正安心：在我看到真正令人信服的证据表明我们的行动开始在使需求下降与总供给更好地平衡方面发挥作用之前，我不想宣布通胀的胜利。现在说这将改变我们的前景或我的政策前景还太早，经济中的头号问题仍然是非常高的通货膨胀，已远远高于可接受的水平，这必须是我们未来的重点。美联储在5月初将基准利率上调了50个基点，并暗示将在6月和7月进行类似幅度的加息，以迅速将利率调至既不刺激、也不放缓经济的水平。美联储5月份会议的纪要显示，官员们对于9月份采取何种行动持更加开放的态度，将根据通货膨胀的情况而定。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克近期表示如果夏季通胀下降速度快于预期，美联储可能考虑在9月暂停加息后，引来市场强烈的反应。不过上周提出“9月暂停加息”观点的博斯蒂克这周明确澄清，观点与救助市场无关。不过，在任内始终拥有FOMC会议投票权的美联储理事沃勒驳斥了9月暂停加息的说法，称他倾向于在接下来的“几次会议”上加息50基点的鹰派言论后，市场刚刚开始兴起的美联储9月暂停加息预期“退烧”。而本周四美联储二号人物布雷纳德也称，“很难找到9月份暂停加息的理由”。作为美联储鹰派的梅斯特，曾在5月中旬表示9月加息75个基点的可能性被再次提上日程。不过，梅斯特本周四和周五的言论则显示了些许变化，周四她曾表示：如果到9月的联邦公开市场委员会会议上，月度通胀数据提供了令人信服的证据，表明通胀正在下降，那么加息的步伐可能会放缓；如果通胀未能缓和，那么可能有必要加快加息步伐。不过梅斯特也警告称，美国爆发经济衰退的风险正在加重，但经济大幅放缓仍可避免。美联储官员将在两周后的6月14日、15日召开下一次政策会议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SDS":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".DJI":1,"DJX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1,"SH":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DDM":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027774958,"gmtCreate":1654095189574,"gmtModify":1676535393297,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027774958","repostId":"1140335557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140335557","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1654091126,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140335557?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-01 21:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SaaS concept stocks rose, with Salesforce gaining over 13%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140335557","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月1日，SaaS概念股盘初走高，Salesforce涨超13%，Twilio、Adobe涨超4%，Shopify涨逾3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On June 1, SaaS concept stocks rose in early trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>Twilio rose over 13%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It rose more than 4%, while Shopify rose more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558b1e537226d979f0494331c3a57adc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SaaS concept stocks rose, with Salesforce gaining over 13%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSaaS concept stocks rose, with Salesforce gaining over 13%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-01 21:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 1, SaaS concept stocks rose in early trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>Twilio rose over 13%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It rose more than 4%, while Shopify rose more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558b1e537226d979f0494331c3a57adc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","CRM":"赛富时","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140335557","content_text":"6月1日，SaaS概念股盘初走高，Salesforce涨超13%，Twilio、Adobe涨超4%，Shopify涨逾3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024804750,"gmtCreate":1653834784670,"gmtModify":1676535348579,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024804750","repostId":"1190142421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190142421","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653795735,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190142421?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-29 11:42","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"The world's best stock trader, the central bank, suffered huge losses? What's going on?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190142421","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年迄今为止，瑞士央行的股票投资回报十分糟糕。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The past few months have been very tough for the Swiss National Bank.</p><p>According to media reports, Meyrick Chapman, former portfolio manager at Elliott Asset Management and bond strategist at UBS, recently analyzed that the Swiss National Bank's equity investment returns have been very poor so far this year.<b>The losses could reach around 75 billion Swiss francs ($78 billion), equivalent to about 10% of Switzerland's GDP.</b></p><p><b>Bond losses could be even more dramatic. He predicts that if bond prices fall as much in the second quarter of this year as they did in the first quarter, the Swiss National Bank's situation in the first half of the year will be unsettling, and if the stock market does not recover, the central bank could lose 120 billion Swiss francs, equivalent to 16% of GDP.</b></p><p>However, even with investment losses, the central bank still enjoyed substantial returns and achieved its goal of controlling the currency exchange rate.</p><p>Is such a huge loss terrible?</p><p>In fact, these losses by the Swiss National Bank have little impact on the country because the large amount of overseas assets held by the central bank provide a buffer.</p><p><b>The Swiss National Bank's long-term gains from the stock market far outweigh these losses and the meager interest it provides to Swiss depositors.</b>Although central banks such as the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia have had to admit that quantitative easing policies have caused them significant losses, the Swiss National Bank is in a much safer position.</p><p>Meyrick Chapman estimates that the Swiss National Bank's investment profits were approximately $90 billion by the end of 2021. Although it suffered some damage,<b>However, the Swiss National Bank may still retain approximately $65 billion in profits, a huge gain that provides the country with a huge financial buffer.</b></p><p><b>The Swiss National Bank's first choice for investment is to buy European bonds. However, as market demand for the Swiss franc surged, the Swiss National Bank turned its attention to overseas assets, buying bonds and stocks in the United States and elsewhere. Therefore, foreign demand for the Swiss franc was converted into assets of the Swiss National Bank.</b></p><p>This made Switzerland a fortune. But to a large extent, deposit inflows mean liabilities, and the Swiss National Bank's policy aims to offset this liability with overseas assets, with the aim of preventing the Swiss franc from appreciating further, rather than simply making money.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank's policy is very different from that of other countries.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank has been struggling with the appreciation of its currency, and although its policies are very different from those of other countries, they have also led to an explosive expansion of its balance sheet.</p><p>Before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent eurozone sovereign debt crisis, the Swiss National Bank had only 80 billion Swiss francs in foreign exchange reserves. Today, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves are slightly above 1 trillion Swiss francs, or $1.04 trillion.</p><p>The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England all increase liquidity in their domestic economies by purchasing assets. These buying sprees were fueled by the issuance of new currency, which in turn was deposited into the banking system as reserves.</p><p>In contrast, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves increased 12-fold as a result of its efforts to combat the franc's frenzied appreciation.<b>Swiss investors investing domestically, as well as foreigners seeking refuge in the eurozone crisis, have pushed up the Swiss currency, which many consider the ultimate \"safe haven.\"</b></p><p><b>Thus, a Swiss version of the quantitative easing policy was born, in which newly issued Swiss francs were sold to safe-haven investors, and the proceeds were used to buy foreign assets.</b></p><p>At its meeting that month, the Swiss National Bank stated:</p><p>The Swiss National Bank will maintain its expansionary monetary policy. It keeps the policy interest rate and the demand deposit rate with the central bank at -0.75%, and is willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary.<b>To cope with the upward pressure on the Swiss franc.</b>In doing so, it takes into account the overall monetary situation and differences in inflation rates with other countries. The exchange rate of the Swiss franc is still very high. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has led to a sharp increase in uncertainty worldwide. Against this backdrop, the Swiss National Bank has ensured price stability and supported the Swiss economy through its monetary policy. As of now, the Swiss franc exchange rate is 1 Swiss franc to 1.04 US dollars, a slight decrease compared to a year ago. In early March, the Swiss franc was pushed up to parity with the euro.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9a3baf28e6eece77f4fedc80c5f385\" tg-width=\"1364\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Therefore, the Swiss National Bank will continue to focus its policy on purchasing foreign assets for the foreseeable future. If the Swiss franc continues to face upward pressure, the Swiss National Bank may buy more. After all, the policy has worked.</b></p><p>The Swiss National Bank is legally limited to paying a maximum of 6% Dividend, so it cannot easily give up profits. Since 2010, the central bank has increased its excess reserves based on asset size, which distinguishes the Swiss National Bank from other central banks. Other central banks have relatively few excess reserves, which may decrease rapidly as \"quantitative tightening\" evolves.</p><p><b>Analysts believe that market logic is favorable to the Swiss National Bank.</b>Losses in bonds and stocks are typically linked to a stronger dollar. While a stronger dollar can damage the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves, it is beneficial to the Swiss National Bank regardless of the direction in which it moves.<b>When the Swiss franc appreciates, the Swiss National Bank's reserve assets will appreciate. When its reserve assets depreciate, the Swiss franc will depreciate accordingly—which is exactly what the Swiss National Bank wants to control.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The world's best stock trader, the central bank, suffered huge losses? What's going on?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe world's best stock trader, the central bank, suffered huge losses? What's going on?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-29 11:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The past few months have been very tough for the Swiss National Bank.</p><p>According to media reports, Meyrick Chapman, former portfolio manager at Elliott Asset Management and bond strategist at UBS, recently analyzed that the Swiss National Bank's equity investment returns have been very poor so far this year.<b>The losses could reach around 75 billion Swiss francs ($78 billion), equivalent to about 10% of Switzerland's GDP.</b></p><p><b>Bond losses could be even more dramatic. He predicts that if bond prices fall as much in the second quarter of this year as they did in the first quarter, the Swiss National Bank's situation in the first half of the year will be unsettling, and if the stock market does not recover, the central bank could lose 120 billion Swiss francs, equivalent to 16% of GDP.</b></p><p>However, even with investment losses, the central bank still enjoyed substantial returns and achieved its goal of controlling the currency exchange rate.</p><p>Is such a huge loss terrible?</p><p>In fact, these losses by the Swiss National Bank have little impact on the country because the large amount of overseas assets held by the central bank provide a buffer.</p><p><b>The Swiss National Bank's long-term gains from the stock market far outweigh these losses and the meager interest it provides to Swiss depositors.</b>Although central banks such as the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia have had to admit that quantitative easing policies have caused them significant losses, the Swiss National Bank is in a much safer position.</p><p>Meyrick Chapman estimates that the Swiss National Bank's investment profits were approximately $90 billion by the end of 2021. Although it suffered some damage,<b>However, the Swiss National Bank may still retain approximately $65 billion in profits, a huge gain that provides the country with a huge financial buffer.</b></p><p><b>The Swiss National Bank's first choice for investment is to buy European bonds. However, as market demand for the Swiss franc surged, the Swiss National Bank turned its attention to overseas assets, buying bonds and stocks in the United States and elsewhere. Therefore, foreign demand for the Swiss franc was converted into assets of the Swiss National Bank.</b></p><p>This made Switzerland a fortune. But to a large extent, deposit inflows mean liabilities, and the Swiss National Bank's policy aims to offset this liability with overseas assets, with the aim of preventing the Swiss franc from appreciating further, rather than simply making money.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank's policy is very different from that of other countries.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank has been struggling with the appreciation of its currency, and although its policies are very different from those of other countries, they have also led to an explosive expansion of its balance sheet.</p><p>Before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent eurozone sovereign debt crisis, the Swiss National Bank had only 80 billion Swiss francs in foreign exchange reserves. Today, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves are slightly above 1 trillion Swiss francs, or $1.04 trillion.</p><p>The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England all increase liquidity in their domestic economies by purchasing assets. These buying sprees were fueled by the issuance of new currency, which in turn was deposited into the banking system as reserves.</p><p>In contrast, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves increased 12-fold as a result of its efforts to combat the franc's frenzied appreciation.<b>Swiss investors investing domestically, as well as foreigners seeking refuge in the eurozone crisis, have pushed up the Swiss currency, which many consider the ultimate \"safe haven.\"</b></p><p><b>Thus, a Swiss version of the quantitative easing policy was born, in which newly issued Swiss francs were sold to safe-haven investors, and the proceeds were used to buy foreign assets.</b></p><p>At its meeting that month, the Swiss National Bank stated:</p><p>The Swiss National Bank will maintain its expansionary monetary policy. It keeps the policy interest rate and the demand deposit rate with the central bank at -0.75%, and is willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary.<b>To cope with the upward pressure on the Swiss franc.</b>In doing so, it takes into account the overall monetary situation and differences in inflation rates with other countries. The exchange rate of the Swiss franc is still very high. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has led to a sharp increase in uncertainty worldwide. Against this backdrop, the Swiss National Bank has ensured price stability and supported the Swiss economy through its monetary policy. As of now, the Swiss franc exchange rate is 1 Swiss franc to 1.04 US dollars, a slight decrease compared to a year ago. In early March, the Swiss franc was pushed up to parity with the euro.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9a3baf28e6eece77f4fedc80c5f385\" tg-width=\"1364\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Therefore, the Swiss National Bank will continue to focus its policy on purchasing foreign assets for the foreseeable future. If the Swiss franc continues to face upward pressure, the Swiss National Bank may buy more. After all, the policy has worked.</b></p><p>The Swiss National Bank is legally limited to paying a maximum of 6% Dividend, so it cannot easily give up profits. Since 2010, the central bank has increased its excess reserves based on asset size, which distinguishes the Swiss National Bank from other central banks. Other central banks have relatively few excess reserves, which may decrease rapidly as \"quantitative tightening\" evolves.</p><p><b>Analysts believe that market logic is favorable to the Swiss National Bank.</b>Losses in bonds and stocks are typically linked to a stronger dollar. While a stronger dollar can damage the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves, it is beneficial to the Swiss National Bank regardless of the direction in which it moves.<b>When the Swiss franc appreciates, the Swiss National Bank's reserve assets will appreciate. When its reserve assets depreciate, the Swiss franc will depreciate accordingly—which is exactly what the Swiss National Bank wants to control.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660564\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ef1080a7350c830e3b86dc8bf24737","relate_stocks":{"EWL":"瑞士ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660564","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1190142421","content_text":"过去几个月对瑞士央行来说十分难捱。据媒体报道，曾任 Elliott 资产管理公司投资组合经理和瑞银债券策略师的 Meyrick Chapman 最近分析认为，今年迄今为止，瑞士央行的股票投资回报十分糟糕，损失可能达到750亿瑞士法郎（合780亿美元）左右，大约相当于瑞士GDP的10%。债券的损失可能更为触目惊心。他预计，如果债券价格在今年第二季度的跌幅与第一季度一样大，瑞士央行上半年的情况将令人不安，如果股市没有复苏，该央行可能会损失1200亿瑞郎，相当于GDP的16%。不过即便遭遇投资亏损，该央行仍然坐拥丰厚回报，并且实现了其控制货币汇率的目标。这种巨额亏损可怕吗？事实上，瑞士央行的这些亏损对该国影响并不大，因为该央行持有的大量海外资产提供了缓冲。瑞士央行从股市中获得的长期收益远远超过这些损失和向瑞士储户提供的微薄利息。尽管英国央行和澳大利亚央行等央行不得不承认量化宽松政策使其遭受重大损失，但瑞士央行的处境要相对安全很多。Meyrick Chapman 估计，截至2021年底，瑞士央行的投资利润约为900亿美元。虽然遭遇了一些破坏，但瑞士央行仍可能保留了大约650亿美元的利润，这笔巨额收益为该国带来了巨大的金融缓冲。瑞士央行投资的首选是购买欧洲债券。但随着市场对瑞士法郎的需求激增，瑞士央行将目光投向了海外资产，在美国和其他地区购买债券和股票。因此，外国对瑞士法郎的需求被转换成了瑞士央行的资产。这让瑞士赚得盆满钵满。但从很大程度上来讲，存款的流入意味着负债，瑞士央行的政策旨在用海外资产来抵消这种负债，其目的是防止瑞士法郎进一步升值，而不仅仅是赚钱。瑞士央行的政策与其他国家的截然不同瑞士央行一直在与其货币升值作斗争，尽管该央行的政策与其他国家的政策截然不同，但同样导致了资产负债表的爆炸性扩张。在雷曼兄弟破产以及随后爆发的欧元区主权债务危机之前，瑞士央行的外汇储备只有800亿瑞郎。如今，瑞士央行的外汇储备已经略高于1万亿瑞郎，合1.04万亿美元。美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行或英国央行等都通过购买资产来增加本国经济的流动性。这些购买狂潮是通过发行新的货币来推动的，而这些新的货币又作为准备金存入银行系统。相比之下，瑞士央行外汇储备增长了12倍，是其对抗瑞士法郎疯狂升值的结果。投资于国内的瑞士投资者，以及在欧元区危机中寻求庇护的外国人推高了被许多人视为终极“避风港”的瑞士货币。于是，一个瑞士版的量化宽松政策诞生了，新发行的瑞士法郎被卖给了那些用于避险的投资者，而所得的收益则被用来购买外国资产。在当月的会议上，瑞士央行表示：瑞士央行将保留其扩张性的货币政策。它将政策利率和在央行的活期存款利率保持在-0.75%，并愿意在必要时干预外汇市场，以应对瑞士法郎的上涨压力。在这样做的时候，它考虑到了整体货币形势和与其他国家的通胀率差异。瑞士法郎的汇率仍然很高。俄乌危机导致全世界的不确定性强烈增加，在此背景下，瑞士央行通过其货币政策确保价格稳定并支持瑞士经济。截至目前，瑞士法郎汇率报1瑞士法郎兑1.04美元，相比一年前小幅下跌。在3月初，瑞士法郎一度被推高至与欧元平价的水平。因此，在可预见的未来，瑞士央行仍将把政策重点放在购买外国资产上。如果瑞士法郎继续面临上涨压力，瑞士央行可能会购买更多。毕竟，这项政策已经奏效。瑞士央行在法律上被限制支付最高6%的股息，因此它不能轻易放弃利润。自2010年以来，该央行已根据资产规模增加超额准备金，这使瑞士央行有别于其他央行。其他央行的超额准备金相对较少，随着“量化紧缩”的演变，这些超额准备金可能会迅速减少。分析人士认为，市场逻辑对瑞士央行有利。债券和股票的损失通常与美元升值挂钩，美元升值虽然会损害瑞士央行的外汇储备，但无论其在哪个方向变动，对瑞士央行都是有好处的。当瑞士法郎升值时，瑞士央行的储备资产就会升值；当其储备资产贬值时，瑞士法郎就会相应贬值——这也正是瑞士央行想要控制的目标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022102401,"gmtCreate":1653486573603,"gmtModify":1676535290658,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022102401","repostId":"1141527844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141527844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653482792,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141527844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-25 20:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will Nio' self-developed battery cells negatively impact CATL?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141527844","media":"第一财经","summary":"整车厂不想只给上游“打工”了。5月25日，上海企事业单位环境信息公开平台显示，上海蔚来汽车有限公司拟投资2.185亿元，计划在上海市嘉定区安亭镇新建研发项目，包括从事锂离子电芯和电池包研发的31个研发","content":"<p><div>Automakers no longer want to just \"work\" for upstream suppliers. On May 25, the Shanghai Enterprise and Institution Environmental Information Disclosure Platform showed that Shanghai Nio Automotive Co., Ltd. plans to invest 218.5 million yuan to build a new R&D project in Anting Town, Jiading District, Shanghai. The project includes 31 R&D laboratories engaged in the research and development of lithium-ion battery cells and battery packs, as well as one lithium-ion battery cell trial production line and one battery pack pack line. Construction is expected to begin between August and October this year. Some industry insiders believe this means that Nio has begun to develop its own battery cells, preparing for its own development, production, and use of power batteries. However, regarding whether Nio Automotive will develop and produce its own battery cells...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Nio' self-developed battery cells negatively impact CATL?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Nio' self-developed battery cells negatively impact CATL?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-25 20:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Automakers no longer want to just \"work\" for upstream suppliers. On May 25, the Shanghai Enterprise and Institution Environmental Information Disclosure Platform showed that Shanghai Nio Automotive Co., Ltd. plans to invest 218.5 million yuan to build a new R&D project in Anting Town, Jiading District, Shanghai. The project includes 31 R&D laboratories engaged in the research and development of lithium-ion battery cells and battery packs, as well as one lithium-ion battery cell trial production line and one battery pack pack line. Construction is expected to begin between August and October this year. Some industry insiders believe this means that Nio has begun to develop its own battery cells, preparing for its own development, production, and use of power batteries. However, regarding whether Nio Automotive will develop and produce its own battery cells...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e93e082b7ec44c8b12bf8070e53a73ef","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代","NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141527844","content_text":"整车厂不想只给上游“打工”了。5月25日，上海企事业单位环境信息公开平台显示，上海蔚来汽车有限公司拟投资2.185亿元，计划在上海市嘉定区安亭镇新建研发项目，包括从事锂离子电芯和电池包研发的31个研发实验室，以及1条锂离子电芯试制线和1条电池包pack线，预计今年8月至10月期间施工。有业内人士认为，这意味着蔚来开始自研电芯，为自研、自产、自用动力电池做好准备。但就是否会自研、自产电芯，蔚来汽车方面暂未对第一财经记者做出回复。不过在建设项目工程分析中，蔚来汽车明确表示，本项目试制线的建设拟为后续发展过程中可能的规模化生产做好前期探索，试制样品用于后续深度开发。早在2021年9月，蔚来就发布了自研动力电池包。该电池包采用了三元锂与磷酸铁锂电芯混合排布的方式，蔚来方面称之为“三元铁锂”电池，并拥有其相关发明专利。但值得注意的是，该电池包中的三元锂电芯和磷酸铁锂电芯供应商均为宁德时代。目前蔚来汽车共拥有宁德时代和卫蓝新能源两家动力电池供应商，但卫蓝新能源主打半固态及固态电池，尚未进入量产阶段，目前蔚来所有在售产品上使用的动力电池电芯均由宁德时代提供。起点研究院（SPIR）统计数据显示，2021年蔚来汽车是宁德时代第二大客户，仅次于特斯拉。小鹏汽车则是宁德时代第三大客户，约80%的动力电池供应来自于宁德时代。此外，宁德时代还是理想汽车的独家供应商。中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据显示，宁德时代的市占率已经连续两年在50%以上，占据了中国动力电池的半壁江山。但仅依靠宁德时代供应动力电池，已给部分新能源车企带来了风险。早前由于电池供应问题，小鹏部分车型出现延期交付的情况，进而发生用户维权事件；蔚来汽车创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在去年3月财报电话会议中亦表示，当年二季度的电池供应是其最大瓶颈。汽车行业研究员张翔在接受媒体采访时曾表示，“宁德时代的产能有限，不可能满足那么多车企的供应需求，那么车企就不得不找别的供应商。”他认为，超过50%的市场份额让宁德时代话语权过大，这并非车企乐意看到的。随着新能源汽车销量规模的持续扩大，动力电池涨价和缺货已成为新能源车企的“切肤之痛”。此外亦有报道显示，车企不满宁德时代较为强势的态度，多家车企已经开始布局在宁德时代之外的“备选方案”。5月23日的财报电话会上，小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏称，小鹏汽车从去年下半年开始一直在引入更多的电池合作伙伴，期望有更多电池合作伙伴，解决之前由于缺乏电池而导致产能不足的问题。今年2月24日，蔚来关联企业蔚瑞投资投资欣旺达电池，出资2.5亿，持股2%。3月27日，广汽埃安总经理古惠南对媒体表示，埃安电池试制线将于今年年底投入运营，目标实现自己掌握核心技术，并仍将与上游锂电公司保持合作。近期蔚来的环评报告亦显示了蔚来有意布局电芯、电池包等技术的自研。中关村新型电池技术创新联盟秘书长、电池百人会理事长于清教向第一财经记者表示，电池供应商一家独大风险过高；其次随着市场空间的扩大，整车厂不想只给上游“打工”了，也试图去改变宁德时代的垄断局面和争夺相应的定价权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9,"09866":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026832540,"gmtCreate":1653353034380,"gmtModify":1676535265971,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026832540","repostId":"2237366551","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237366551","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653348675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237366551?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 07:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Snap's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237366551","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"“阅后即焚”通信应用Snapchat母公司Snap CEOEvan Speigel周一在给员工的一份报告中警告称，该公司二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标。该公司股价闻讯在美股盘后暴跌近30%。　　Speigel称，该社交媒体公司也将在今年年底前放缓招聘，因希望管理开支。　　Snap 4月份公布的一季度财报不及华尔街预期。　　Spiegel表示，Snap将继续招聘新员工，但将在今年余下时间放慢招聘步伐。他仍预计Snap将在今年年底前雇佣500名新员工。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In a report to employees on Monday, Evan Speigel, CEO of Snap, the parent company of the ephemeral messaging app Snapchat, warned that the company would miss its revenue and adjusted earnings targets in the second quarter. The company's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading on the U.S. stock market upon hearing the news.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27f342547eeac7599070c0d8f2a01ce9\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Speigel stated that the social media company will also slow hiring by the end of this year in a bid to manage expenses. Part of this letter has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).</p><p>Spiegel wrote: \"Today we filed an 8-K report indicating that the macroeconomic environment is deteriorating much faster than we expected when we released our quarterly guidance last month. Therefore, while our revenue continues to grow year-over-year, the growth rate is slower than we currently anticipate.\"</p><p>Snap's first-quarter earnings report in April fell short of Wall Street expectations. At the time, the company stated that it expected second-quarter revenue to grow by 20% to 25% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) between $0 million and $50 million.</p><p>In an updated report on Monday, Spiegel wrote: \"We believe that the revenue and adjusted EBITDA we will report will be below the low end of our guidance range.\"</p><p>Spiegel stated that Snap will continue to hire new employees, but will slow down its hiring pace for the remainder of the year. He still expects Snap to hire 500 new employees by the end of this year. The company has employed about 2,000 people in the past 12 months.</p><p>Spiegel stated that the company is facing rising inflation and interest rates, supply chain shortages, labor disruptions, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Changes in platform policies such as iPhone privacy features. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has also had negative impacts.</p><p>As of Monday's close, Snap's stock price had fallen more than 50% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index had fallen 17% during the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f950e882674a02cf20f6eb2c6293771\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-24 07:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In a report to employees on Monday, Evan Speigel, CEO of Snap, the parent company of the ephemeral messaging app Snapchat, warned that the company would miss its revenue and adjusted earnings targets in the second quarter. The company's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading on the U.S. stock market upon hearing the news.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27f342547eeac7599070c0d8f2a01ce9\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Speigel stated that the social media company will also slow hiring by the end of this year in a bid to manage expenses. Part of this letter has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).</p><p>Spiegel wrote: \"Today we filed an 8-K report indicating that the macroeconomic environment is deteriorating much faster than we expected when we released our quarterly guidance last month. Therefore, while our revenue continues to grow year-over-year, the growth rate is slower than we currently anticipate.\"</p><p>Snap's first-quarter earnings report in April fell short of Wall Street expectations. At the time, the company stated that it expected second-quarter revenue to grow by 20% to 25% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) between $0 million and $50 million.</p><p>In an updated report on Monday, Spiegel wrote: \"We believe that the revenue and adjusted EBITDA we will report will be below the low end of our guidance range.\"</p><p>Spiegel stated that Snap will continue to hire new employees, but will slow down its hiring pace for the remainder of the year. He still expects Snap to hire 500 new employees by the end of this year. The company has employed about 2,000 people in the past 12 months.</p><p>Spiegel stated that the company is facing rising inflation and interest rates, supply chain shortages, labor disruptions, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Changes in platform policies such as iPhone privacy features. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has also had negative impacts.</p><p>As of Monday's close, Snap's stock price had fallen more than 50% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index had fallen 17% during the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f950e882674a02cf20f6eb2c6293771\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-24/doc-imizirau4427372.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69a4e4c29b9a3b2171a004f6fa3e490","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEX":"标普100","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4575":"芯片概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4579":"人工智能"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-24/doc-imizirau4427372.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2237366551","content_text":"“阅后即焚”通信应用Snapchat母公司Snap CEO Evan Speigel周一在给员工的一份报告中警告称，该公司二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标。该公司股价闻讯在美股盘后暴跌近30%。Speigel称，该社交媒体公司也将在今年年底前放缓招聘，因希望管理开支。这封信的一部分已提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）。Spiegel写道：“今天我们提交了一份8-K报告，表明宏观环境恶化的速度比我们上个月发布季度指引时的预期要快得多。因此，虽然我们的收入继续同比增长，但增长速度比我们目前预期的要慢。”Snap 4月份公布的一季度财报不及华尔街预期。当时该公司表示，预计二季度收入将同比增长20%至25%，调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）在0至5000万美元之间。Spiegel在周一的更新报告中写道：“我们认为，我们将报告的收入和调整后EBITDA会低于指导范围的低端。”Spiegel表示，Snap将继续招聘新员工，但将在今年余下时间放慢招聘步伐。他仍预计Snap将在今年年底前雇佣500名新员工。该公司在过去12个月内雇佣了约2000名员工。Spiegel称，该公司正面临着通胀和利率上升、供应链短缺、劳动力中断以及苹果iPhone隐私功能等平台政策变化。俄乌冲突也有负面影响。截至周一收盘，Snap股价今年迄今下跌超过50%，标普500指数同期下跌17%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":0.82}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026832845,"gmtCreate":1653353024987,"gmtModify":1676535265813,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026832845","repostId":"2237366551","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237366551","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653348675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237366551?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 07:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Snap's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237366551","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"“阅后即焚”通信应用Snapchat母公司Snap CEOEvan Speigel周一在给员工的一份报告中警告称，该公司二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标。该公司股价闻讯在美股盘后暴跌近30%。　　Speigel称，该社交媒体公司也将在今年年底前放缓招聘，因希望管理开支。　　Snap 4月份公布的一季度财报不及华尔街预期。　　Spiegel表示，Snap将继续招聘新员工，但将在今年余下时间放慢招聘步伐。他仍预计Snap将在今年年底前雇佣500名新员工。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In a report to employees on Monday, Evan Speigel, CEO of Snap, the parent company of the ephemeral messaging app Snapchat, warned that the company would miss its revenue and adjusted earnings targets in the second quarter. The company's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading on the U.S. stock market upon hearing the news.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27f342547eeac7599070c0d8f2a01ce9\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Speigel stated that the social media company will also slow hiring by the end of this year in a bid to manage expenses. Part of this letter has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).</p><p>Spiegel wrote: \"Today we filed an 8-K report indicating that the macroeconomic environment is deteriorating much faster than we expected when we released our quarterly guidance last month. Therefore, while our revenue continues to grow year-over-year, the growth rate is slower than we currently anticipate.\"</p><p>Snap's first-quarter earnings report in April fell short of Wall Street expectations. At the time, the company stated that it expected second-quarter revenue to grow by 20% to 25% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) between $0 million and $50 million.</p><p>In an updated report on Monday, Spiegel wrote: \"We believe that the revenue and adjusted EBITDA we will report will be below the low end of our guidance range.\"</p><p>Spiegel stated that Snap will continue to hire new employees, but will slow down its hiring pace for the remainder of the year. He still expects Snap to hire 500 new employees by the end of this year. The company has employed about 2,000 people in the past 12 months.</p><p>Spiegel stated that the company is facing rising inflation and interest rates, supply chain shortages, labor disruptions, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Changes in platform policies such as iPhone privacy features. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has also had negative impacts.</p><p>As of Monday's close, Snap's stock price had fallen more than 50% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index had fallen 17% during the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f950e882674a02cf20f6eb2c6293771\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading! CEO warns earnings will fall short of expectations and plans to slow hiring\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-24 07:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In a report to employees on Monday, Evan Speigel, CEO of Snap, the parent company of the ephemeral messaging app Snapchat, warned that the company would miss its revenue and adjusted earnings targets in the second quarter. The company's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in after-hours trading on the U.S. stock market upon hearing the news.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27f342547eeac7599070c0d8f2a01ce9\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Speigel stated that the social media company will also slow hiring by the end of this year in a bid to manage expenses. Part of this letter has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).</p><p>Spiegel wrote: \"Today we filed an 8-K report indicating that the macroeconomic environment is deteriorating much faster than we expected when we released our quarterly guidance last month. Therefore, while our revenue continues to grow year-over-year, the growth rate is slower than we currently anticipate.\"</p><p>Snap's first-quarter earnings report in April fell short of Wall Street expectations. At the time, the company stated that it expected second-quarter revenue to grow by 20% to 25% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) between $0 million and $50 million.</p><p>In an updated report on Monday, Spiegel wrote: \"We believe that the revenue and adjusted EBITDA we will report will be below the low end of our guidance range.\"</p><p>Spiegel stated that Snap will continue to hire new employees, but will slow down its hiring pace for the remainder of the year. He still expects Snap to hire 500 new employees by the end of this year. The company has employed about 2,000 people in the past 12 months.</p><p>Spiegel stated that the company is facing rising inflation and interest rates, supply chain shortages, labor disruptions, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Changes in platform policies such as iPhone privacy features. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has also had negative impacts.</p><p>As of Monday's close, Snap's stock price had fallen more than 50% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index had fallen 17% during the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f950e882674a02cf20f6eb2c6293771\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-24/doc-imizirau4427372.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69a4e4c29b9a3b2171a004f6fa3e490","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEX":"标普100","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4575":"芯片概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4579":"人工智能"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-24/doc-imizirau4427372.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2237366551","content_text":"“阅后即焚”通信应用Snapchat母公司Snap CEO Evan Speigel周一在给员工的一份报告中警告称，该公司二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标。该公司股价闻讯在美股盘后暴跌近30%。Speigel称，该社交媒体公司也将在今年年底前放缓招聘，因希望管理开支。这封信的一部分已提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）。Spiegel写道：“今天我们提交了一份8-K报告，表明宏观环境恶化的速度比我们上个月发布季度指引时的预期要快得多。因此，虽然我们的收入继续同比增长，但增长速度比我们目前预期的要慢。”Snap 4月份公布的一季度财报不及华尔街预期。当时该公司表示，预计二季度收入将同比增长20%至25%，调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）在0至5000万美元之间。Spiegel在周一的更新报告中写道：“我们认为，我们将报告的收入和调整后EBITDA会低于指导范围的低端。”Spiegel表示，Snap将继续招聘新员工，但将在今年余下时间放慢招聘步伐。他仍预计Snap将在今年年底前雇佣500名新员工。该公司在过去12个月内雇佣了约2000名员工。Spiegel称，该公司正面临着通胀和利率上升、供应链短缺、劳动力中断以及苹果iPhone隐私功能等平台政策变化。俄乌冲突也有负面影响。截至周一收盘，Snap股价今年迄今下跌超过50%，标普500指数同期下跌17%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":0.82}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026009543,"gmtCreate":1653288035582,"gmtModify":1676535254441,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Risk and opportunity","listText":"Risk and opportunity","text":"Risk and opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026009543","repostId":"1126352915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126352915","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653287308,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126352915?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 14:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street has huge differences in its predictions for the year-end performance of US stocks! Still guessing at the bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126352915","media":"金十数据","summary":"华尔街目前对标普500指数年底最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。美股连续七周下跌，上周五标普500指数一度下跌多达2.3%，五个月内下跌超过20%，险熊市收盘的风险。然而，买家在最后一小时突然涌入","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street currently has a 37% gap between its year-end high and low forecasts for the S&P 500.</p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 2.3% last Friday, marking a drop of more than 20% in five months, raising the risk of a bear market closing. However, a sudden influx of buyers in the last hour narrowed its decline since January 3 to 18.7%, once again avoiding a bear market. This has left Wall Street forecasters increasingly bewildered by the trend of US stocks, as if they had returned to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6391cd2811caa710d42772057d5207e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The difference is that the disruption of the pandemic has subsided, and the biggest blow now comes from the Federal Reserve, which is determined to squeeze excess funds out of the economy. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war, supply chains are once again at risk of disruption, and stock valuations are at a 20-year high.</p><p>As a result, Wall Street's predictions were very different. Six more strategists lowered their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 this month.<b>The current gap between the highest and lowest forecasts has reached 37%.</b>In the same period of the past decade, such a huge divergence has only occurred once: right after the sell-off in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ad85b6d65a8e4418b8793f276a2d7f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Evidence of investor confusion is everywhere. Just this week, the stock prices of Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, Ark Investment, and technology companies alternated between gains and losses for five consecutive days. Meanwhile, retail companies such as Walmart, which served as safe havens during market turmoil, suddenly collapsed and plummeted due to poor earnings reports.</p><p>How bad could things get? For those who are bearish, a recession is an inevitable result of the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. Those who are bullish on the Federal Reserve may pin their hopes on the fact that it is moving towards its goal.</p><p>Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said in a phone call:</p><p>“The nature of the uncertainty we face is different, but Wall Street strategists’ jobs are no easier now than they were during the pandemic. There is no certainty about the economic trajectory. There are ‘recession’ camps, ‘soft landing camps,’ and various views in between.” Currently, financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since 1987. The financial condition index tracked by Goldman Sachs has fallen 1% since its first rate hike two months ago. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that<b>The current pace of tightening exceeds that of all five previous rate hike cycles.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e02f4d19d67c2256fd6abc17a1f02b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This week, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus reiterated his bullish stance in an interview with foreign media, with his year-end target price of 5,330 points, the highest in the latest strategist survey. He saw similarities between the current and past exaggerations of the US stock market decline. He said:</p><p>“My intuition now tells me that the current situation looks a lot like early 2009, 1994, and the fourth quarter of 2018. If you make negative predictions at the wrong time, you will miss the subsequent rebound.” March 2009 marked the beginning of a long bull market following the global financial crisis. In 1994, the Federal Reserve began its rate hike cycle and successfully avoided a recession. In late 2018, amid a stock market crash, the Federal Reserve halted rate hike and began easing policy the following year.</p><p>Currently, policymakers have little sympathy for the bleeding in the market. However, investors have not given up hope that the Federal Reserve will intervene when the situation worsens, namely the expectation of \"Fed put options\".<b>In Bank of America's latest survey, fund managers expect \"Fed put options\" to take effect when the S&P 500 falls to 3,529 points, a level 9.5% lower than last Friday's closing price.</b></p><p>However, the market's slow recovery has frustrated even the most pessimistic people on Wall Street. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eric Johnston's year-end target is 3,900 points, the lowest among strategists tracked by Bloomberg. In early May, after the S&P 500's worst April performance in 50 years, he told clients that the stock market was ready for a rebound. A few weeks later, the massacre showed no signs of abating, and he admitted his guilt.</p><p><b>The biggest concern: a bear market is coming, but panic is not yet here.</b></p><p>Worse still, has the US stock market crash so far been a panic? In some ways, the answer is no, which could be a bad sign for the stock market in the short term.</p><p>Even though US stocks have entered a bear market for the first time since March 2020,<b>Trading volume has remained average.</b>，<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index is below its high this month.</b>At the same time,<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange's SKEW index (the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options relative to call options) is nearing a two-year low.</b>。</p><p>From a reverse perspective, a relative lack of panic is not necessarily a good thing. AlphaTrAI analyst Max Gokhman believes that,<b>The S&P 500 index moved in a relatively orderly manner, without any obvious signs of panic, indicating that a bottom has not yet appeared.</b>Coupled with the Federal Reserve's intention to continue tightening monetary conditions, the outlook for US stocks is bleak, and there may be more room for further declines. The tightening cycle is now only a third of the way through, and a recession has not yet occurred.</p><p>Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives at Susquehanna International Group, said:</p><p>“We usually see more trading volume at true lows, which is a sign that investors have surrendered. Current trading volume isn’t very representative; I’d prefer to see a surge in trading volume to give me more confidence in confirming the bottom of US stocks,” SentimentTrader analyst Jay Kaeppel said in an interview last Friday.</p><p>“We have fear, doubt, and anxiety, but we haven’t surrendered. No one has sold stocks yet, although I think that will happen. Wake me up when the VIX (fear index) reaches 45, because historically, every sharp drop in the stock market has been accompanied by a surge in the VIX to 40 or 45, which is currently around 30.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2299f3fd709ff49f919aa7601dc3ce\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, is watching for signs of surrender in three areas: the VIX is above 40; The ratio of put options to call options trading volume (assessing market investment sentiment) reached 1.35 – currently 1.27; The stock trading volume exceeded 20 billion shares. He wrote in a recent report:</p><p>\"The end of a correction is usually accompanied by fear and surrender—extreme volatility and trading volume.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58c264a99de8fa17fb25fc8ecfec7e5\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Craig W. Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, shares a similar view. He also expects the volatility index to reach 40 points and uses an indicator he calls the \"40-week technique,\" which measures how many stocks are above or below the 40-week moving average. The indicator has fallen to 13%, and if it falls below 10%, it could indicate that the market is nearing the bottom.</p><p>He wrote in a report, \"Historically, data below 10% indicates that the overall market is nearing an inflection point.\"</p><p>Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at Boston Partners, also pointed out that<b>Corporate profit margins may shrink further.</b>Therefore, the likelihood of US stocks declining is higher than rising, and analysts may lower their overall valuations in the future until a bottom valuation appears. He said:</p><p>\"The most important question right now is whether the U.S. will achieve a soft landing or fall into a recession. If the Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down to their current range, then we are more inclined to a recession than a soft landing. And a recession could push the S&P 500's P/E to about 13 times, at which point it could indicate that almost all assets in the market are undervalued.\"<b>Valuations are attractive, but investors remain cautious.</b></p><p>After $5.5 trillion in market capitalization evaporated, it was not easy for US tech stocks to bottom out, but some signals brought hope to investors.</p><p>Rising interest rates, concerns about slowing economic growth, and soaring inflation have created a perfect storm to hit U.S. stocks. Tech stocks have been hit hard this year, from retail investors who invested in Ark Investment last year to asset managers who invested in tech giants like Apple.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100, dominated by technology stocks, has fallen nearly 30% from its peak last year, marking its seventh consecutive week of decline and its longest losing streak since 2011. This makes its valuation look more attractive.</p><p>As the valuation bubble formed during the pandemic bursts,<b>The Nasdaq's current P/E is about 20 times expected earnings, in line with its long-term average.</b>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks chipmakers such as Intel Corp. and ASML Holding NV, expects a P/E of about 15 times over the next 12 months, far below the peak of 24 times reached in early 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/932197ffffd6f7b0420a45dbd728e229\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jordan Stuart, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said:</p><p>“Investors find it difficult to remain patient when so much carnage occurs. But this pain should end soon. Our advice is that growth investors need to be prepared.” Last week, Jefferies strategists turned bullish on the information technology sector, stating in a report that investors’ pursuit of cash in anticipation of extreme interest rate scenarios “has been overly reflected in the compression of market valuations.”</p><p>Wells Fargo Securities said it is abandoning its negative view on growth stocks due to recent extreme bearish sentiment. In fact, the number of companies trading above the 200-day moving average has reached its lowest level since the first half of 2020, and an indicator of stock market investor enthusiasm has reached “unambiguous contrarian buy territory.”</p><p>For Kevin Mahn, who runs Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, cash-rich Apple and Microsoft will make up for their stock price losses over time because \"most of the losses have ended\" and some good buying opportunities are emerging in the technology sector.</p><p>However, he is also cautious about the timing of the rebound, as the market has not yet shown signs of surrendering. “I certainly wouldn’t call it a bottom, and I’m sure there will be more selling in the future,” he said.</p><p>Like Mahn,<b>Many investors are torn between prices that now look more attractive and the reality that the global economic outlook remains highly uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Technology stocks are experiencing significant capital outflows.</b>A recent Bank of America survey showed that fund managers were \"extremely short\" technology stocks, with their allocation to the sector at its lowest level since August 2006.</p><p><b>The options market, however, points to a potential rebound.</b>The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, which tracks the $157 billion Nasdaq, shows that the ratio of put options based on open contracts recently hit a two-year low, while open calls have surged to their highest level since 2008 (a decline in the put option ratio is usually a bullish signal).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eef381bcbe9afd956ab0591ecf708ff\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street has huge differences in its predictions for the year-end performance of US stocks! Still guessing at the bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street has huge differences in its predictions for the year-end performance of US stocks! Still guessing at the bottom?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 14:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street currently has a 37% gap between its year-end high and low forecasts for the S&P 500.</p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 2.3% last Friday, marking a drop of more than 20% in five months, raising the risk of a bear market closing. However, a sudden influx of buyers in the last hour narrowed its decline since January 3 to 18.7%, once again avoiding a bear market. This has left Wall Street forecasters increasingly bewildered by the trend of US stocks, as if they had returned to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6391cd2811caa710d42772057d5207e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The difference is that the disruption of the pandemic has subsided, and the biggest blow now comes from the Federal Reserve, which is determined to squeeze excess funds out of the economy. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war, supply chains are once again at risk of disruption, and stock valuations are at a 20-year high.</p><p>As a result, Wall Street's predictions were very different. Six more strategists lowered their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 this month.<b>The current gap between the highest and lowest forecasts has reached 37%.</b>In the same period of the past decade, such a huge divergence has only occurred once: right after the sell-off in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ad85b6d65a8e4418b8793f276a2d7f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Evidence of investor confusion is everywhere. Just this week, the stock prices of Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, Ark Investment, and technology companies alternated between gains and losses for five consecutive days. Meanwhile, retail companies such as Walmart, which served as safe havens during market turmoil, suddenly collapsed and plummeted due to poor earnings reports.</p><p>How bad could things get? For those who are bearish, a recession is an inevitable result of the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. Those who are bullish on the Federal Reserve may pin their hopes on the fact that it is moving towards its goal.</p><p>Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said in a phone call:</p><p>“The nature of the uncertainty we face is different, but Wall Street strategists’ jobs are no easier now than they were during the pandemic. There is no certainty about the economic trajectory. There are ‘recession’ camps, ‘soft landing camps,’ and various views in between.” Currently, financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since 1987. The financial condition index tracked by Goldman Sachs has fallen 1% since its first rate hike two months ago. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that<b>The current pace of tightening exceeds that of all five previous rate hike cycles.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e02f4d19d67c2256fd6abc17a1f02b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This week, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus reiterated his bullish stance in an interview with foreign media, with his year-end target price of 5,330 points, the highest in the latest strategist survey. He saw similarities between the current and past exaggerations of the US stock market decline. He said:</p><p>“My intuition now tells me that the current situation looks a lot like early 2009, 1994, and the fourth quarter of 2018. If you make negative predictions at the wrong time, you will miss the subsequent rebound.” March 2009 marked the beginning of a long bull market following the global financial crisis. In 1994, the Federal Reserve began its rate hike cycle and successfully avoided a recession. In late 2018, amid a stock market crash, the Federal Reserve halted rate hike and began easing policy the following year.</p><p>Currently, policymakers have little sympathy for the bleeding in the market. However, investors have not given up hope that the Federal Reserve will intervene when the situation worsens, namely the expectation of \"Fed put options\".<b>In Bank of America's latest survey, fund managers expect \"Fed put options\" to take effect when the S&P 500 falls to 3,529 points, a level 9.5% lower than last Friday's closing price.</b></p><p>However, the market's slow recovery has frustrated even the most pessimistic people on Wall Street. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eric Johnston's year-end target is 3,900 points, the lowest among strategists tracked by Bloomberg. In early May, after the S&P 500's worst April performance in 50 years, he told clients that the stock market was ready for a rebound. A few weeks later, the massacre showed no signs of abating, and he admitted his guilt.</p><p><b>The biggest concern: a bear market is coming, but panic is not yet here.</b></p><p>Worse still, has the US stock market crash so far been a panic? In some ways, the answer is no, which could be a bad sign for the stock market in the short term.</p><p>Even though US stocks have entered a bear market for the first time since March 2020,<b>Trading volume has remained average.</b>，<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index is below its high this month.</b>At the same time,<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange's SKEW index (the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options relative to call options) is nearing a two-year low.</b>。</p><p>From a reverse perspective, a relative lack of panic is not necessarily a good thing. AlphaTrAI analyst Max Gokhman believes that,<b>The S&P 500 index moved in a relatively orderly manner, without any obvious signs of panic, indicating that a bottom has not yet appeared.</b>Coupled with the Federal Reserve's intention to continue tightening monetary conditions, the outlook for US stocks is bleak, and there may be more room for further declines. The tightening cycle is now only a third of the way through, and a recession has not yet occurred.</p><p>Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives at Susquehanna International Group, said:</p><p>“We usually see more trading volume at true lows, which is a sign that investors have surrendered. Current trading volume isn’t very representative; I’d prefer to see a surge in trading volume to give me more confidence in confirming the bottom of US stocks,” SentimentTrader analyst Jay Kaeppel said in an interview last Friday.</p><p>“We have fear, doubt, and anxiety, but we haven’t surrendered. No one has sold stocks yet, although I think that will happen. Wake me up when the VIX (fear index) reaches 45, because historically, every sharp drop in the stock market has been accompanied by a surge in the VIX to 40 or 45, which is currently around 30.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2299f3fd709ff49f919aa7601dc3ce\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, is watching for signs of surrender in three areas: the VIX is above 40; The ratio of put options to call options trading volume (assessing market investment sentiment) reached 1.35 – currently 1.27; The stock trading volume exceeded 20 billion shares. He wrote in a recent report:</p><p>\"The end of a correction is usually accompanied by fear and surrender—extreme volatility and trading volume.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58c264a99de8fa17fb25fc8ecfec7e5\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Craig W. Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, shares a similar view. He also expects the volatility index to reach 40 points and uses an indicator he calls the \"40-week technique,\" which measures how many stocks are above or below the 40-week moving average. The indicator has fallen to 13%, and if it falls below 10%, it could indicate that the market is nearing the bottom.</p><p>He wrote in a report, \"Historically, data below 10% indicates that the overall market is nearing an inflection point.\"</p><p>Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at Boston Partners, also pointed out that<b>Corporate profit margins may shrink further.</b>Therefore, the likelihood of US stocks declining is higher than rising, and analysts may lower their overall valuations in the future until a bottom valuation appears. He said:</p><p>\"The most important question right now is whether the U.S. will achieve a soft landing or fall into a recession. If the Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down to their current range, then we are more inclined to a recession than a soft landing. And a recession could push the S&P 500's P/E to about 13 times, at which point it could indicate that almost all assets in the market are undervalued.\"<b>Valuations are attractive, but investors remain cautious.</b></p><p>After $5.5 trillion in market capitalization evaporated, it was not easy for US tech stocks to bottom out, but some signals brought hope to investors.</p><p>Rising interest rates, concerns about slowing economic growth, and soaring inflation have created a perfect storm to hit U.S. stocks. Tech stocks have been hit hard this year, from retail investors who invested in Ark Investment last year to asset managers who invested in tech giants like Apple.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100, dominated by technology stocks, has fallen nearly 30% from its peak last year, marking its seventh consecutive week of decline and its longest losing streak since 2011. This makes its valuation look more attractive.</p><p>As the valuation bubble formed during the pandemic bursts,<b>The Nasdaq's current P/E is about 20 times expected earnings, in line with its long-term average.</b>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks chipmakers such as Intel Corp. and ASML Holding NV, expects a P/E of about 15 times over the next 12 months, far below the peak of 24 times reached in early 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/932197ffffd6f7b0420a45dbd728e229\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jordan Stuart, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said:</p><p>“Investors find it difficult to remain patient when so much carnage occurs. But this pain should end soon. Our advice is that growth investors need to be prepared.” Last week, Jefferies strategists turned bullish on the information technology sector, stating in a report that investors’ pursuit of cash in anticipation of extreme interest rate scenarios “has been overly reflected in the compression of market valuations.”</p><p>Wells Fargo Securities said it is abandoning its negative view on growth stocks due to recent extreme bearish sentiment. In fact, the number of companies trading above the 200-day moving average has reached its lowest level since the first half of 2020, and an indicator of stock market investor enthusiasm has reached “unambiguous contrarian buy territory.”</p><p>For Kevin Mahn, who runs Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, cash-rich Apple and Microsoft will make up for their stock price losses over time because \"most of the losses have ended\" and some good buying opportunities are emerging in the technology sector.</p><p>However, he is also cautious about the timing of the rebound, as the market has not yet shown signs of surrendering. “I certainly wouldn’t call it a bottom, and I’m sure there will be more selling in the future,” he said.</p><p>Like Mahn,<b>Many investors are torn between prices that now look more attractive and the reality that the global economic outlook remains highly uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Technology stocks are experiencing significant capital outflows.</b>A recent Bank of America survey showed that fund managers were \"extremely short\" technology stocks, with their allocation to the sector at its lowest level since August 2006.</p><p><b>The options market, however, points to a potential rebound.</b>The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, which tracks the $157 billion Nasdaq, shows that the ratio of put options based on open contracts recently hit a two-year low, while open calls have surged to their highest level since 2008 (a decline in the put option ratio is usually a bullish signal).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eef381bcbe9afd956ab0591ecf708ff\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94453\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94453","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126352915","content_text":"华尔街目前对标普500指数年底最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。美股连续七周下跌，上周五标普500指数一度下跌多达2.3%，五个月内下跌超过20%，险熊市收盘的风险。然而，买家在最后一小时突然涌入，使其自1月3日以来的跌幅收窄至18.7%，再次避免跌入熊市。这让华尔街的预言家们像回到新冠疫情爆发初期一样，对美股的走势越来越摸不着头脑。不同的是，疫情的扰乱已经有所消退，而现在最重大的打击来自美联储，它一心想从经济中榨取过剩的资金。再加上俄乌战争，供应链再度面临破坏的风险，股票估值处于20年来的高位。结果就是，华尔街的预测结果大相径庭。本月又有六位策略师下调了对标普500指数的年终预期，目前最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。在过去十年的同期，这种巨大的分歧只出现过一次：就在2020年3月的抛售之后。投资者困惑的证据无处不在。就在本周，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF方舟投资（Ark Investment）和科技公司的股价连续五天在盈亏之间交替。与此同时，沃尔玛等在市场动荡期间作为避风港的零售公司因财报爆雷突然崩溃大跌。事情会变得多糟糕？对于那些看空者来说，衰退是美联储对抗通胀的不可避免的结果。看好美联储的人可能会寄希望于其正在朝着目标前进。LPL Financial首席股票策略师昆西·克劳斯比（Quincy Krosby）在电话中说:“我们面临的不确定性的性质不同了，但华尔街策略师现在的工作并不比疫情期间容易。经济走向没有确定性。有‘衰退’阵营、‘软着陆阵营’，以及介于两者之间的各种观点。”当前，金融环境收紧的速度是自1987年以来最快的。高盛集团追踪的金融状况指数自两个月前首次加息以来已下跌1%。彭博汇编的数据显示，现阶段的紧缩步伐超过了之前所有五个加息周期。本周，奥本海默的约翰·斯托尔茨福斯（John Stoltzfus）在接受外媒采访时重申了他的看涨立场，他的年终目标价为5330点，是最新的策略师调查中最高的。他看到了现在和过去夸大美股跌势之间的相似之处。他说：“现在我的直觉告诉我，当前的情形看起来很像2009年初，像1994年，也像2018年第四季度。如果你不合时宜地做出负面预测，你就会错过之后的反弹。”2009年3月标志着在全球金融危机后长期牛市的开始。1994年，美联储开始了加息周期并成功避免了经济衰退。2018年底，在股市暴跌的情况下，美联储停止了加息，并于次年开始放宽政策。目前，政策制定者对市场的流血几乎没有同情之心。但投资者并未放弃在情况恶化时美联储介入的希望，即对“美联储看跌期权”的预期。在美国银行最新的调查中，基金经理预计，当标普指数跌至3529点时，“美联储看跌期权”将开始生效，该水平比上周五收盘价低9.5%。然而，市场迟迟未能复苏，令华尔街上最不乐观的人也感到沮丧。Cantor Fitzgerald分析师Eric Johnston的年终目标为3900点，这是彭博追踪的策略师中最低的。5月初，在标普500指数出现50年来最糟糕的4月表现之后，他告诉客户，股市已经准备好反弹。几周后，大屠杀没有减弱的迹象，他承认了自己的过失。最大的隐忧：熊市将至，但恐慌未至更糟糕的是，迄今为止，美股的崩盘是否是一场恐慌？从某些方面来看，答案是否定的，这可能在短期内对股市来说是个坏兆头。即使美股自2020年3月以来首次触及熊市，但交易量一直处于平均水平，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数低于本月的高点。与此同时，芝加哥期权交易所SKEW指数（标普500看跌期权相对于看涨期权的隐含波动率）接近两年低点。从逆向的角度来看，相对缺乏恐慌不一定是好事。AlphaTrAI分析师Max Gokhman认为，标普500指数的走势相对有序，没有任何明显的恐慌迹象，这表明底部尚未出现。再加上美联储打算继续寻求收紧金融条件，美股前景黯淡，可能还有更多的下跌空间。现在紧缩周期仅进行了三分之一，而衰退尚未出现。Susquehanna International Group衍生品联席主管Chris Murphy表示：“我们通常会在真正的低点看到更多成交量，这是投资者投降的迹象。而目前的成交量并没有什么代表性，我更愿意看到成交量激增，以便对确认美股的底部更有信心。”SentimenTrader分析师Jay Kaeppel上周五在接受采访时说：“我们有恐惧、怀疑和焦虑，但我们没有投降。还没有人抛售股票，虽然我认为这种情况会发生。等VIX（恐慌指数）达到45时再叫醒我，因为回顾历史，每次股市大幅下跌都会伴随着VIX飙升到40或45，而VIX目前在30左右。”Evercore ISI首席股票和量化策略师朱利安·伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）正在观察三个方面的投降迹象：VIX高于40；出售期权与买入期权交易量比率（评估市场的投资气氛）达到1.35——当前为1.27；股票成交量超过200亿股。他在最近的一份报告中写道：“修正的结束通常伴随着恐惧和投降——极端波动和成交量。”Piper Sandler的首席市场技术人员Craig W.Johnson也持类似观点。他也预计波动率指数将触及40点，并使用了一项他称之为“40周技术”的指标，该指标衡量有多少只股票高于或低于40周移动平均线，该指标已降至13%，如果低于10%，就有可能表明市场已经接近底部。他在一份报告中写道，“历史上，低于10%的数据表明，整体市场接近拐点”。Boston Partners全球市场研究主管MikeMullaney还指出，企业利润率有可能进一步收缩，所以美股下行的可能性要高于上涨，未来分析师可能会下调整体估值，直至底部估值的出现。他表示：“目前最重要的问题是美国会否实现经济软着陆，还是会陷入经济衰退。如果美联储致力于将通胀压低至他们的目前区间，那么我们更倾向于衰退而不是软着陆。而经济衰退可能将标普500的市盈率打到13倍左右，届时这个水平可能表明市场上几乎所有的资产都被低估了。”估值吸引力十足，但投资者仍保持谨慎在市值蒸发5.5万亿美元后，美股科技股触底尚不容易，但有一些信号给投资者带来了希望。利率上升、对经济增长放缓的担忧和通胀飙升形成了冲击美股的完美风暴，科技股今年受到重创，不论是去年投资方舟投资（Ark Investment）的散户，还是投资苹果等科技巨头的资产管理公司，无一幸免遇难。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数较去年的峰值下跌了近30%，连续7周录得下跌，创自2011年以来最长的连跌。这使得其估值看起来更有吸引力。随着疫情期间形成的估值泡沫消退，纳指目前的市盈率约为预期收益的20倍，与长期平均水平一致。追踪英特尔（Intel Corp.）和阿斯麦控股（ASML Holding NV）等芯片制造商的费城半导体指数（Philadelphia Semiconductor Index）未来12个月预期市盈率约为15倍，远低于2021年初创下的24倍的峰值。Federated Hermes的投资组合经理Jordan Stuart说：“当发生如此多的屠杀时，投资者很难保有耐心。但这种痛苦应该很快就会结束。我们的建议是成长型投资者需要做好准备。”上周，杰富瑞的策略师转而看好信息技术行业，并在一份报告中表示，投资者因对极端利率情景的预期而追捧现金的情况“已过度反映在市场估值的压缩上”。富国银行证券表示，由于看跌情绪在近期达到极端，它正在放弃对成长股的负面看法。事实上，交易价格高于200天移动平均线的公司数量已经达到了2020年上半年以来的最低水平，而一项衡量股市投资者热情的指标已经到达“明确的反向投资者买入区域”（unambiguous contrarian buy territory）。对于经营Hennion & Walsh Asset Management的Kevin Mahn来说，现金充裕的苹果和微软将随着时间的推移弥补股价亏损，因为“大部分亏损已经结束”，而且科技领域正在出现一些好的买入机会。然而，他也对反弹的时机持谨慎态度，因为市场尚未出现投降的迹象。“我当然不会称之为底部，而且我确信未来还会有更多的抛售”，他说。与Mahn一样，许多投资者在现在看起来更具吸引力的价格与全球经济前景仍然高度不确定的现实之间左右为难。科技股的资金外流严重。美国银行最近的一项调查显示，基金经理“极度做空”科技股，对该行业的配置处于2006年8月以来的最低水平。期权市场却指向潜在的反弹。追踪纳指的规模达1570亿美元的Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF期权显示基于未平仓合约的看跌期权比率最近触及两年来的最低水平，未平仓的看涨期权则已飙升至2008年以来的最高水平（看跌期权比率的下降通常是看涨信号）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026009217,"gmtCreate":1653288021939,"gmtModify":1676535254426,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Risk and opportunity","listText":"Risk and opportunity","text":"Risk and opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026009217","repostId":"1126352915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126352915","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653287308,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126352915?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 14:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street has huge differences in its predictions for the year-end performance of US stocks! Still guessing at the bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126352915","media":"金十数据","summary":"华尔街目前对标普500指数年底最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。美股连续七周下跌，上周五标普500指数一度下跌多达2.3%，五个月内下跌超过20%，险熊市收盘的风险。然而，买家在最后一小时突然涌入","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street currently has a 37% gap between its year-end high and low forecasts for the S&P 500.</p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 2.3% last Friday, marking a drop of more than 20% in five months, raising the risk of a bear market closing. However, a sudden influx of buyers in the last hour narrowed its decline since January 3 to 18.7%, once again avoiding a bear market. This has left Wall Street forecasters increasingly bewildered by the trend of US stocks, as if they had returned to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6391cd2811caa710d42772057d5207e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The difference is that the disruption of the pandemic has subsided, and the biggest blow now comes from the Federal Reserve, which is determined to squeeze excess funds out of the economy. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war, supply chains are once again at risk of disruption, and stock valuations are at a 20-year high.</p><p>As a result, Wall Street's predictions were very different. Six more strategists lowered their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 this month.<b>The current gap between the highest and lowest forecasts has reached 37%.</b>In the same period of the past decade, such a huge divergence has only occurred once: right after the sell-off in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ad85b6d65a8e4418b8793f276a2d7f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Evidence of investor confusion is everywhere. Just this week, the stock prices of Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, Ark Investment, and technology companies alternated between gains and losses for five consecutive days. Meanwhile, retail companies such as Walmart, which served as safe havens during market turmoil, suddenly collapsed and plummeted due to poor earnings reports.</p><p>How bad could things get? For those who are bearish, a recession is an inevitable result of the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. Those who are bullish on the Federal Reserve may pin their hopes on the fact that it is moving towards its goal.</p><p>Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said in a phone call:</p><p>“The nature of the uncertainty we face is different, but Wall Street strategists’ jobs are no easier now than they were during the pandemic. There is no certainty about the economic trajectory. There are ‘recession’ camps, ‘soft landing camps,’ and various views in between.” Currently, financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since 1987. The financial condition index tracked by Goldman Sachs has fallen 1% since its first rate hike two months ago. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that<b>The current pace of tightening exceeds that of all five previous rate hike cycles.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e02f4d19d67c2256fd6abc17a1f02b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This week, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus reiterated his bullish stance in an interview with foreign media, with his year-end target price of 5,330 points, the highest in the latest strategist survey. He saw similarities between the current and past exaggerations of the US stock market decline. He said:</p><p>“My intuition now tells me that the current situation looks a lot like early 2009, 1994, and the fourth quarter of 2018. If you make negative predictions at the wrong time, you will miss the subsequent rebound.” March 2009 marked the beginning of a long bull market following the global financial crisis. In 1994, the Federal Reserve began its rate hike cycle and successfully avoided a recession. In late 2018, amid a stock market crash, the Federal Reserve halted rate hike and began easing policy the following year.</p><p>Currently, policymakers have little sympathy for the bleeding in the market. However, investors have not given up hope that the Federal Reserve will intervene when the situation worsens, namely the expectation of \"Fed put options\".<b>In Bank of America's latest survey, fund managers expect \"Fed put options\" to take effect when the S&P 500 falls to 3,529 points, a level 9.5% lower than last Friday's closing price.</b></p><p>However, the market's slow recovery has frustrated even the most pessimistic people on Wall Street. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eric Johnston's year-end target is 3,900 points, the lowest among strategists tracked by Bloomberg. In early May, after the S&P 500's worst April performance in 50 years, he told clients that the stock market was ready for a rebound. A few weeks later, the massacre showed no signs of abating, and he admitted his guilt.</p><p><b>The biggest concern: a bear market is coming, but panic is not yet here.</b></p><p>Worse still, has the US stock market crash so far been a panic? In some ways, the answer is no, which could be a bad sign for the stock market in the short term.</p><p>Even though US stocks have entered a bear market for the first time since March 2020,<b>Trading volume has remained average.</b>，<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index is below its high this month.</b>At the same time,<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange's SKEW index (the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options relative to call options) is nearing a two-year low.</b>。</p><p>From a reverse perspective, a relative lack of panic is not necessarily a good thing. AlphaTrAI analyst Max Gokhman believes that,<b>The S&P 500 index moved in a relatively orderly manner, without any obvious signs of panic, indicating that a bottom has not yet appeared.</b>Coupled with the Federal Reserve's intention to continue tightening monetary conditions, the outlook for US stocks is bleak, and there may be more room for further declines. The tightening cycle is now only a third of the way through, and a recession has not yet occurred.</p><p>Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives at Susquehanna International Group, said:</p><p>“We usually see more trading volume at true lows, which is a sign that investors have surrendered. Current trading volume isn’t very representative; I’d prefer to see a surge in trading volume to give me more confidence in confirming the bottom of US stocks,” SentimentTrader analyst Jay Kaeppel said in an interview last Friday.</p><p>“We have fear, doubt, and anxiety, but we haven’t surrendered. No one has sold stocks yet, although I think that will happen. Wake me up when the VIX (fear index) reaches 45, because historically, every sharp drop in the stock market has been accompanied by a surge in the VIX to 40 or 45, which is currently around 30.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2299f3fd709ff49f919aa7601dc3ce\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, is watching for signs of surrender in three areas: the VIX is above 40; The ratio of put options to call options trading volume (assessing market investment sentiment) reached 1.35 – currently 1.27; The stock trading volume exceeded 20 billion shares. He wrote in a recent report:</p><p>\"The end of a correction is usually accompanied by fear and surrender—extreme volatility and trading volume.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58c264a99de8fa17fb25fc8ecfec7e5\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Craig W. Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, shares a similar view. He also expects the volatility index to reach 40 points and uses an indicator he calls the \"40-week technique,\" which measures how many stocks are above or below the 40-week moving average. The indicator has fallen to 13%, and if it falls below 10%, it could indicate that the market is nearing the bottom.</p><p>He wrote in a report, \"Historically, data below 10% indicates that the overall market is nearing an inflection point.\"</p><p>Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at Boston Partners, also pointed out that<b>Corporate profit margins may shrink further.</b>Therefore, the likelihood of US stocks declining is higher than rising, and analysts may lower their overall valuations in the future until a bottom valuation appears. He said:</p><p>\"The most important question right now is whether the U.S. will achieve a soft landing or fall into a recession. If the Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down to their current range, then we are more inclined to a recession than a soft landing. And a recession could push the S&P 500's P/E to about 13 times, at which point it could indicate that almost all assets in the market are undervalued.\"<b>Valuations are attractive, but investors remain cautious.</b></p><p>After $5.5 trillion in market capitalization evaporated, it was not easy for US tech stocks to bottom out, but some signals brought hope to investors.</p><p>Rising interest rates, concerns about slowing economic growth, and soaring inflation have created a perfect storm to hit U.S. stocks. Tech stocks have been hit hard this year, from retail investors who invested in Ark Investment last year to asset managers who invested in tech giants like Apple.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100, dominated by technology stocks, has fallen nearly 30% from its peak last year, marking its seventh consecutive week of decline and its longest losing streak since 2011. This makes its valuation look more attractive.</p><p>As the valuation bubble formed during the pandemic bursts,<b>The Nasdaq's current P/E is about 20 times expected earnings, in line with its long-term average.</b>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks chipmakers such as Intel Corp. and ASML Holding NV, expects a P/E of about 15 times over the next 12 months, far below the peak of 24 times reached in early 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/932197ffffd6f7b0420a45dbd728e229\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jordan Stuart, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said:</p><p>“Investors find it difficult to remain patient when so much carnage occurs. But this pain should end soon. Our advice is that growth investors need to be prepared.” Last week, Jefferies strategists turned bullish on the information technology sector, stating in a report that investors’ pursuit of cash in anticipation of extreme interest rate scenarios “has been overly reflected in the compression of market valuations.”</p><p>Wells Fargo Securities said it is abandoning its negative view on growth stocks due to recent extreme bearish sentiment. In fact, the number of companies trading above the 200-day moving average has reached its lowest level since the first half of 2020, and an indicator of stock market investor enthusiasm has reached “unambiguous contrarian buy territory.”</p><p>For Kevin Mahn, who runs Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, cash-rich Apple and Microsoft will make up for their stock price losses over time because \"most of the losses have ended\" and some good buying opportunities are emerging in the technology sector.</p><p>However, he is also cautious about the timing of the rebound, as the market has not yet shown signs of surrendering. “I certainly wouldn’t call it a bottom, and I’m sure there will be more selling in the future,” he said.</p><p>Like Mahn,<b>Many investors are torn between prices that now look more attractive and the reality that the global economic outlook remains highly uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Technology stocks are experiencing significant capital outflows.</b>A recent Bank of America survey showed that fund managers were \"extremely short\" technology stocks, with their allocation to the sector at its lowest level since August 2006.</p><p><b>The options market, however, points to a potential rebound.</b>The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, which tracks the $157 billion Nasdaq, shows that the ratio of put options based on open contracts recently hit a two-year low, while open calls have surged to their highest level since 2008 (a decline in the put option ratio is usually a bullish signal).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eef381bcbe9afd956ab0591ecf708ff\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street has huge differences in its predictions for the year-end performance of US stocks! Still guessing at the bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street has huge differences in its predictions for the year-end performance of US stocks! Still guessing at the bottom?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 14:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street currently has a 37% gap between its year-end high and low forecasts for the S&P 500.</p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 2.3% last Friday, marking a drop of more than 20% in five months, raising the risk of a bear market closing. However, a sudden influx of buyers in the last hour narrowed its decline since January 3 to 18.7%, once again avoiding a bear market. This has left Wall Street forecasters increasingly bewildered by the trend of US stocks, as if they had returned to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6391cd2811caa710d42772057d5207e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The difference is that the disruption of the pandemic has subsided, and the biggest blow now comes from the Federal Reserve, which is determined to squeeze excess funds out of the economy. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war, supply chains are once again at risk of disruption, and stock valuations are at a 20-year high.</p><p>As a result, Wall Street's predictions were very different. Six more strategists lowered their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 this month.<b>The current gap between the highest and lowest forecasts has reached 37%.</b>In the same period of the past decade, such a huge divergence has only occurred once: right after the sell-off in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ad85b6d65a8e4418b8793f276a2d7f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Evidence of investor confusion is everywhere. Just this week, the stock prices of Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, Ark Investment, and technology companies alternated between gains and losses for five consecutive days. Meanwhile, retail companies such as Walmart, which served as safe havens during market turmoil, suddenly collapsed and plummeted due to poor earnings reports.</p><p>How bad could things get? For those who are bearish, a recession is an inevitable result of the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. Those who are bullish on the Federal Reserve may pin their hopes on the fact that it is moving towards its goal.</p><p>Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said in a phone call:</p><p>“The nature of the uncertainty we face is different, but Wall Street strategists’ jobs are no easier now than they were during the pandemic. There is no certainty about the economic trajectory. There are ‘recession’ camps, ‘soft landing camps,’ and various views in between.” Currently, financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since 1987. The financial condition index tracked by Goldman Sachs has fallen 1% since its first rate hike two months ago. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that<b>The current pace of tightening exceeds that of all five previous rate hike cycles.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e02f4d19d67c2256fd6abc17a1f02b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This week, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus reiterated his bullish stance in an interview with foreign media, with his year-end target price of 5,330 points, the highest in the latest strategist survey. He saw similarities between the current and past exaggerations of the US stock market decline. He said:</p><p>“My intuition now tells me that the current situation looks a lot like early 2009, 1994, and the fourth quarter of 2018. If you make negative predictions at the wrong time, you will miss the subsequent rebound.” March 2009 marked the beginning of a long bull market following the global financial crisis. In 1994, the Federal Reserve began its rate hike cycle and successfully avoided a recession. In late 2018, amid a stock market crash, the Federal Reserve halted rate hike and began easing policy the following year.</p><p>Currently, policymakers have little sympathy for the bleeding in the market. However, investors have not given up hope that the Federal Reserve will intervene when the situation worsens, namely the expectation of \"Fed put options\".<b>In Bank of America's latest survey, fund managers expect \"Fed put options\" to take effect when the S&P 500 falls to 3,529 points, a level 9.5% lower than last Friday's closing price.</b></p><p>However, the market's slow recovery has frustrated even the most pessimistic people on Wall Street. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eric Johnston's year-end target is 3,900 points, the lowest among strategists tracked by Bloomberg. In early May, after the S&P 500's worst April performance in 50 years, he told clients that the stock market was ready for a rebound. A few weeks later, the massacre showed no signs of abating, and he admitted his guilt.</p><p><b>The biggest concern: a bear market is coming, but panic is not yet here.</b></p><p>Worse still, has the US stock market crash so far been a panic? In some ways, the answer is no, which could be a bad sign for the stock market in the short term.</p><p>Even though US stocks have entered a bear market for the first time since March 2020,<b>Trading volume has remained average.</b>，<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index is below its high this month.</b>At the same time,<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange's SKEW index (the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options relative to call options) is nearing a two-year low.</b>。</p><p>From a reverse perspective, a relative lack of panic is not necessarily a good thing. AlphaTrAI analyst Max Gokhman believes that,<b>The S&P 500 index moved in a relatively orderly manner, without any obvious signs of panic, indicating that a bottom has not yet appeared.</b>Coupled with the Federal Reserve's intention to continue tightening monetary conditions, the outlook for US stocks is bleak, and there may be more room for further declines. The tightening cycle is now only a third of the way through, and a recession has not yet occurred.</p><p>Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives at Susquehanna International Group, said:</p><p>“We usually see more trading volume at true lows, which is a sign that investors have surrendered. Current trading volume isn’t very representative; I’d prefer to see a surge in trading volume to give me more confidence in confirming the bottom of US stocks,” SentimentTrader analyst Jay Kaeppel said in an interview last Friday.</p><p>“We have fear, doubt, and anxiety, but we haven’t surrendered. No one has sold stocks yet, although I think that will happen. Wake me up when the VIX (fear index) reaches 45, because historically, every sharp drop in the stock market has been accompanied by a surge in the VIX to 40 or 45, which is currently around 30.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2299f3fd709ff49f919aa7601dc3ce\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, is watching for signs of surrender in three areas: the VIX is above 40; The ratio of put options to call options trading volume (assessing market investment sentiment) reached 1.35 – currently 1.27; The stock trading volume exceeded 20 billion shares. He wrote in a recent report:</p><p>\"The end of a correction is usually accompanied by fear and surrender—extreme volatility and trading volume.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58c264a99de8fa17fb25fc8ecfec7e5\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Craig W. Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, shares a similar view. He also expects the volatility index to reach 40 points and uses an indicator he calls the \"40-week technique,\" which measures how many stocks are above or below the 40-week moving average. The indicator has fallen to 13%, and if it falls below 10%, it could indicate that the market is nearing the bottom.</p><p>He wrote in a report, \"Historically, data below 10% indicates that the overall market is nearing an inflection point.\"</p><p>Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at Boston Partners, also pointed out that<b>Corporate profit margins may shrink further.</b>Therefore, the likelihood of US stocks declining is higher than rising, and analysts may lower their overall valuations in the future until a bottom valuation appears. He said:</p><p>\"The most important question right now is whether the U.S. will achieve a soft landing or fall into a recession. If the Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down to their current range, then we are more inclined to a recession than a soft landing. And a recession could push the S&P 500's P/E to about 13 times, at which point it could indicate that almost all assets in the market are undervalued.\"<b>Valuations are attractive, but investors remain cautious.</b></p><p>After $5.5 trillion in market capitalization evaporated, it was not easy for US tech stocks to bottom out, but some signals brought hope to investors.</p><p>Rising interest rates, concerns about slowing economic growth, and soaring inflation have created a perfect storm to hit U.S. stocks. Tech stocks have been hit hard this year, from retail investors who invested in Ark Investment last year to asset managers who invested in tech giants like Apple.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100, dominated by technology stocks, has fallen nearly 30% from its peak last year, marking its seventh consecutive week of decline and its longest losing streak since 2011. This makes its valuation look more attractive.</p><p>As the valuation bubble formed during the pandemic bursts,<b>The Nasdaq's current P/E is about 20 times expected earnings, in line with its long-term average.</b>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks chipmakers such as Intel Corp. and ASML Holding NV, expects a P/E of about 15 times over the next 12 months, far below the peak of 24 times reached in early 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/932197ffffd6f7b0420a45dbd728e229\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jordan Stuart, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said:</p><p>“Investors find it difficult to remain patient when so much carnage occurs. But this pain should end soon. Our advice is that growth investors need to be prepared.” Last week, Jefferies strategists turned bullish on the information technology sector, stating in a report that investors’ pursuit of cash in anticipation of extreme interest rate scenarios “has been overly reflected in the compression of market valuations.”</p><p>Wells Fargo Securities said it is abandoning its negative view on growth stocks due to recent extreme bearish sentiment. In fact, the number of companies trading above the 200-day moving average has reached its lowest level since the first half of 2020, and an indicator of stock market investor enthusiasm has reached “unambiguous contrarian buy territory.”</p><p>For Kevin Mahn, who runs Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, cash-rich Apple and Microsoft will make up for their stock price losses over time because \"most of the losses have ended\" and some good buying opportunities are emerging in the technology sector.</p><p>However, he is also cautious about the timing of the rebound, as the market has not yet shown signs of surrendering. “I certainly wouldn’t call it a bottom, and I’m sure there will be more selling in the future,” he said.</p><p>Like Mahn,<b>Many investors are torn between prices that now look more attractive and the reality that the global economic outlook remains highly uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Technology stocks are experiencing significant capital outflows.</b>A recent Bank of America survey showed that fund managers were \"extremely short\" technology stocks, with their allocation to the sector at its lowest level since August 2006.</p><p><b>The options market, however, points to a potential rebound.</b>The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, which tracks the $157 billion Nasdaq, shows that the ratio of put options based on open contracts recently hit a two-year low, while open calls have surged to their highest level since 2008 (a decline in the put option ratio is usually a bullish signal).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eef381bcbe9afd956ab0591ecf708ff\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94453\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94453","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126352915","content_text":"华尔街目前对标普500指数年底最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。美股连续七周下跌，上周五标普500指数一度下跌多达2.3%，五个月内下跌超过20%，险熊市收盘的风险。然而，买家在最后一小时突然涌入，使其自1月3日以来的跌幅收窄至18.7%，再次避免跌入熊市。这让华尔街的预言家们像回到新冠疫情爆发初期一样，对美股的走势越来越摸不着头脑。不同的是，疫情的扰乱已经有所消退，而现在最重大的打击来自美联储，它一心想从经济中榨取过剩的资金。再加上俄乌战争，供应链再度面临破坏的风险，股票估值处于20年来的高位。结果就是，华尔街的预测结果大相径庭。本月又有六位策略师下调了对标普500指数的年终预期，目前最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。在过去十年的同期，这种巨大的分歧只出现过一次：就在2020年3月的抛售之后。投资者困惑的证据无处不在。就在本周，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF方舟投资（Ark Investment）和科技公司的股价连续五天在盈亏之间交替。与此同时，沃尔玛等在市场动荡期间作为避风港的零售公司因财报爆雷突然崩溃大跌。事情会变得多糟糕？对于那些看空者来说，衰退是美联储对抗通胀的不可避免的结果。看好美联储的人可能会寄希望于其正在朝着目标前进。LPL Financial首席股票策略师昆西·克劳斯比（Quincy Krosby）在电话中说:“我们面临的不确定性的性质不同了，但华尔街策略师现在的工作并不比疫情期间容易。经济走向没有确定性。有‘衰退’阵营、‘软着陆阵营’，以及介于两者之间的各种观点。”当前，金融环境收紧的速度是自1987年以来最快的。高盛集团追踪的金融状况指数自两个月前首次加息以来已下跌1%。彭博汇编的数据显示，现阶段的紧缩步伐超过了之前所有五个加息周期。本周，奥本海默的约翰·斯托尔茨福斯（John Stoltzfus）在接受外媒采访时重申了他的看涨立场，他的年终目标价为5330点，是最新的策略师调查中最高的。他看到了现在和过去夸大美股跌势之间的相似之处。他说：“现在我的直觉告诉我，当前的情形看起来很像2009年初，像1994年，也像2018年第四季度。如果你不合时宜地做出负面预测，你就会错过之后的反弹。”2009年3月标志着在全球金融危机后长期牛市的开始。1994年，美联储开始了加息周期并成功避免了经济衰退。2018年底，在股市暴跌的情况下，美联储停止了加息，并于次年开始放宽政策。目前，政策制定者对市场的流血几乎没有同情之心。但投资者并未放弃在情况恶化时美联储介入的希望，即对“美联储看跌期权”的预期。在美国银行最新的调查中，基金经理预计，当标普指数跌至3529点时，“美联储看跌期权”将开始生效，该水平比上周五收盘价低9.5%。然而，市场迟迟未能复苏，令华尔街上最不乐观的人也感到沮丧。Cantor Fitzgerald分析师Eric Johnston的年终目标为3900点，这是彭博追踪的策略师中最低的。5月初，在标普500指数出现50年来最糟糕的4月表现之后，他告诉客户，股市已经准备好反弹。几周后，大屠杀没有减弱的迹象，他承认了自己的过失。最大的隐忧：熊市将至，但恐慌未至更糟糕的是，迄今为止，美股的崩盘是否是一场恐慌？从某些方面来看，答案是否定的，这可能在短期内对股市来说是个坏兆头。即使美股自2020年3月以来首次触及熊市，但交易量一直处于平均水平，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数低于本月的高点。与此同时，芝加哥期权交易所SKEW指数（标普500看跌期权相对于看涨期权的隐含波动率）接近两年低点。从逆向的角度来看，相对缺乏恐慌不一定是好事。AlphaTrAI分析师Max Gokhman认为，标普500指数的走势相对有序，没有任何明显的恐慌迹象，这表明底部尚未出现。再加上美联储打算继续寻求收紧金融条件，美股前景黯淡，可能还有更多的下跌空间。现在紧缩周期仅进行了三分之一，而衰退尚未出现。Susquehanna International Group衍生品联席主管Chris Murphy表示：“我们通常会在真正的低点看到更多成交量，这是投资者投降的迹象。而目前的成交量并没有什么代表性，我更愿意看到成交量激增，以便对确认美股的底部更有信心。”SentimenTrader分析师Jay Kaeppel上周五在接受采访时说：“我们有恐惧、怀疑和焦虑，但我们没有投降。还没有人抛售股票，虽然我认为这种情况会发生。等VIX（恐慌指数）达到45时再叫醒我，因为回顾历史，每次股市大幅下跌都会伴随着VIX飙升到40或45，而VIX目前在30左右。”Evercore ISI首席股票和量化策略师朱利安·伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）正在观察三个方面的投降迹象：VIX高于40；出售期权与买入期权交易量比率（评估市场的投资气氛）达到1.35——当前为1.27；股票成交量超过200亿股。他在最近的一份报告中写道：“修正的结束通常伴随着恐惧和投降——极端波动和成交量。”Piper Sandler的首席市场技术人员Craig W.Johnson也持类似观点。他也预计波动率指数将触及40点，并使用了一项他称之为“40周技术”的指标，该指标衡量有多少只股票高于或低于40周移动平均线，该指标已降至13%，如果低于10%，就有可能表明市场已经接近底部。他在一份报告中写道，“历史上，低于10%的数据表明，整体市场接近拐点”。Boston Partners全球市场研究主管MikeMullaney还指出，企业利润率有可能进一步收缩，所以美股下行的可能性要高于上涨，未来分析师可能会下调整体估值，直至底部估值的出现。他表示：“目前最重要的问题是美国会否实现经济软着陆，还是会陷入经济衰退。如果美联储致力于将通胀压低至他们的目前区间，那么我们更倾向于衰退而不是软着陆。而经济衰退可能将标普500的市盈率打到13倍左右，届时这个水平可能表明市场上几乎所有的资产都被低估了。”估值吸引力十足，但投资者仍保持谨慎在市值蒸发5.5万亿美元后，美股科技股触底尚不容易，但有一些信号给投资者带来了希望。利率上升、对经济增长放缓的担忧和通胀飙升形成了冲击美股的完美风暴，科技股今年受到重创，不论是去年投资方舟投资（Ark Investment）的散户，还是投资苹果等科技巨头的资产管理公司，无一幸免遇难。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数较去年的峰值下跌了近30%，连续7周录得下跌，创自2011年以来最长的连跌。这使得其估值看起来更有吸引力。随着疫情期间形成的估值泡沫消退，纳指目前的市盈率约为预期收益的20倍，与长期平均水平一致。追踪英特尔（Intel Corp.）和阿斯麦控股（ASML Holding NV）等芯片制造商的费城半导体指数（Philadelphia Semiconductor Index）未来12个月预期市盈率约为15倍，远低于2021年初创下的24倍的峰值。Federated Hermes的投资组合经理Jordan Stuart说：“当发生如此多的屠杀时，投资者很难保有耐心。但这种痛苦应该很快就会结束。我们的建议是成长型投资者需要做好准备。”上周，杰富瑞的策略师转而看好信息技术行业，并在一份报告中表示，投资者因对极端利率情景的预期而追捧现金的情况“已过度反映在市场估值的压缩上”。富国银行证券表示，由于看跌情绪在近期达到极端，它正在放弃对成长股的负面看法。事实上，交易价格高于200天移动平均线的公司数量已经达到了2020年上半年以来的最低水平，而一项衡量股市投资者热情的指标已经到达“明确的反向投资者买入区域”（unambiguous contrarian buy territory）。对于经营Hennion & Walsh Asset Management的Kevin Mahn来说，现金充裕的苹果和微软将随着时间的推移弥补股价亏损，因为“大部分亏损已经结束”，而且科技领域正在出现一些好的买入机会。然而，他也对反弹的时机持谨慎态度，因为市场尚未出现投降的迹象。“我当然不会称之为底部，而且我确信未来还会有更多的抛售”，他说。与Mahn一样，许多投资者在现在看起来更具吸引力的价格与全球经济前景仍然高度不确定的现实之间左右为难。科技股的资金外流严重。美国银行最近的一项调查显示，基金经理“极度做空”科技股，对该行业的配置处于2006年8月以来的最低水平。期权市场却指向潜在的反弹。追踪纳指的规模达1570亿美元的Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF期权显示基于未平仓合约的看跌期权比率最近触及两年来的最低水平，未平仓的看涨期权则已飙升至2008年以来的最高水平（看跌期权比率的下降通常是看涨信号）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028166073,"gmtCreate":1653185383792,"gmtModify":1676535236334,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028166073","repostId":"1105761866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028168480,"gmtCreate":1653185363040,"gmtModify":1676535236326,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028168480","repostId":"1105761866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021622390,"gmtCreate":1653049612610,"gmtModify":1676535214416,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021622390","repostId":"2236009774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236009774","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653043031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236009774?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 18:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Has the \"sanctions order\" been sidelined? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236009774","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在经历欧美广泛的制裁后，俄罗斯石油生产正在企稳，显示出稳定复苏的迹象。克里姆林宫最高能源官员兼副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克周四表示，继4月下降100万桶/日后，俄罗斯石油产量已开始恢复，5月产量增加20—3","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Following extensive sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States, Russian oil production is stabilizing and showing signs of a steady recovery.</p><p>The Kremlin's top energy official and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil production has begun to recover after falling by 1 million barrels per day in April, with production increasing by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day in May, and a further recovery is expected in June.</p><p>Although the EU has not yet reached an agreement on a phased oil embargo against Russia, the main<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company has stopped buying oil from Russia on its own.</p><p>However, this does not mean that exports to Europe have completely stopped. Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil producers have exported their oil to other markets before returning to the European market. It also stated that about half of Gazprom's foreign customers open accounts to meet the country's requirement to pay in rubles.</p><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously predicted that Russia's oil revenues would grow by 50% this year despite the boycott. The EU remained Russia's largest export market in April, accounting for 43% of Russia's total exports. Following a decline in March, when the first batch of Western sanctions against Russia took effect, Russian exports rebounded in April, rising by 620,000 barrels per day to 8.1 million barrels per day, approaching pre-conflict levels. Exports to the EU, the US and the UK decreased by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, while exports to India and Turkey increased by 730,000 barrels per day and 180,000 barrels per day, respectively.</p><p>The Russian Ministry of Economy predicts that despite a short-term stabilization in oil production, Russia's energy production will continue to decline throughout the year. In 2022, oil and petroleum product production is expected to decline by 9.3%, and natural gas production is expected to decline by 5.6%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has the \"sanctions order\" been sidelined? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas the \"sanctions order\" been sidelined? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-20 18:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Following extensive sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States, Russian oil production is stabilizing and showing signs of a steady recovery.</p><p>The Kremlin's top energy official and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil production has begun to recover after falling by 1 million barrels per day in April, with production increasing by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day in May, and a further recovery is expected in June.</p><p>Although the EU has not yet reached an agreement on a phased oil embargo against Russia, the main<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company has stopped buying oil from Russia on its own.</p><p>However, this does not mean that exports to Europe have completely stopped. Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil producers have exported their oil to other markets before returning to the European market. It also stated that about half of Gazprom's foreign customers open accounts to meet the country's requirement to pay in rubles.</p><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously predicted that Russia's oil revenues would grow by 50% this year despite the boycott. The EU remained Russia's largest export market in April, accounting for 43% of Russia's total exports. Following a decline in March, when the first batch of Western sanctions against Russia took effect, Russian exports rebounded in April, rising by 620,000 barrels per day to 8.1 million barrels per day, approaching pre-conflict levels. Exports to the EU, the US and the UK decreased by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, while exports to India and Turkey increased by 730,000 barrels per day and 180,000 barrels per day, respectively.</p><p>The Russian Ministry of Economy predicts that despite a short-term stabilization in oil production, Russia's energy production will continue to decline throughout the year. In 2022, oil and petroleum product production is expected to decline by 9.3%, and natural gas production is expected to decline by 5.6%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659919\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659919","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236009774","content_text":"在经历欧美广泛的制裁后，俄罗斯石油生产正在企稳，显示出稳定复苏的迹象。克里姆林宫最高能源官员兼副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克周四表示，继4月下降100万桶/日后，俄罗斯石油产量已开始恢复，5月产量增加20—30万桶/日，预计6月将进一步复苏。虽然欧盟尚未就对俄分阶段实施石油禁运达成协议，但主要西方石油公司已停止自行从俄罗斯购买石油。但这并不意味着对欧出口完全中断。诺瓦克周四表示，俄罗斯石油生产商已经将石油出口到其他市场，然后重新转向欧洲市场。其同时表示，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司大约一半的外国客户开立账户是为了满足该国以卢布支付的要求。国际能源署（IEA）此前预测认为，尽管遭到抵制，俄罗斯今年的石油收入仍将增长50%。欧盟仍是俄罗斯4月最大的出口市场，占俄出口总额的43%。在西方首批对俄制裁生效的3月下降后，4月俄罗斯出口量反弹，增长62万桶/日至810万桶/日，接近俄乌冲突前水平。其中对欧盟、美国和英国的出口量减少约120万桶/日，对印度和土耳其的出口量分别增长73万桶/日和18万桶/日。俄罗斯经济部预计，尽管石油产量短线企稳，俄罗斯今年全年能源产量仍将下降，预计2022年石油和石油产品的产量将下降9.3%，天然气产量预计将下降5.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DWTIF":0.6,"UCO":1,"UWTIF":1,"USO":1,"SCO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021622001,"gmtCreate":1653049589003,"gmtModify":1676535214393,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021622001","repostId":"2236009774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236009774","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653043031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236009774?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 18:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Has the \"sanctions order\" been sidelined? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236009774","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在经历欧美广泛的制裁后，俄罗斯石油生产正在企稳，显示出稳定复苏的迹象。克里姆林宫最高能源官员兼副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克周四表示，继4月下降100万桶/日后，俄罗斯石油产量已开始恢复，5月产量增加20—3","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Following extensive sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States, Russian oil production is stabilizing and showing signs of a steady recovery.</p><p>The Kremlin's top energy official and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil production has begun to recover after falling by 1 million barrels per day in April, with production increasing by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day in May, and a further recovery is expected in June.</p><p>Although the EU has not yet reached an agreement on a phased oil embargo against Russia, the main<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company has stopped buying oil from Russia on its own.</p><p>However, this does not mean that exports to Europe have completely stopped. Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil producers have exported their oil to other markets before returning to the European market. It also stated that about half of Gazprom's foreign customers open accounts to meet the country's requirement to pay in rubles.</p><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously predicted that Russia's oil revenues would grow by 50% this year despite the boycott. The EU remained Russia's largest export market in April, accounting for 43% of Russia's total exports. Following a decline in March, when the first batch of Western sanctions against Russia took effect, Russian exports rebounded in April, rising by 620,000 barrels per day to 8.1 million barrels per day, approaching pre-conflict levels. Exports to the EU, the US and the UK decreased by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, while exports to India and Turkey increased by 730,000 barrels per day and 180,000 barrels per day, respectively.</p><p>The Russian Ministry of Economy predicts that despite a short-term stabilization in oil production, Russia's energy production will continue to decline throughout the year. In 2022, oil and petroleum product production is expected to decline by 9.3%, and natural gas production is expected to decline by 5.6%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has the \"sanctions order\" been sidelined? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas the \"sanctions order\" been sidelined? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-20 18:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Following extensive sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States, Russian oil production is stabilizing and showing signs of a steady recovery.</p><p>The Kremlin's top energy official and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil production has begun to recover after falling by 1 million barrels per day in April, with production increasing by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day in May, and a further recovery is expected in June.</p><p>Although the EU has not yet reached an agreement on a phased oil embargo against Russia, the main<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company has stopped buying oil from Russia on its own.</p><p>However, this does not mean that exports to Europe have completely stopped. Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil producers have exported their oil to other markets before returning to the European market. It also stated that about half of Gazprom's foreign customers open accounts to meet the country's requirement to pay in rubles.</p><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously predicted that Russia's oil revenues would grow by 50% this year despite the boycott. The EU remained Russia's largest export market in April, accounting for 43% of Russia's total exports. Following a decline in March, when the first batch of Western sanctions against Russia took effect, Russian exports rebounded in April, rising by 620,000 barrels per day to 8.1 million barrels per day, approaching pre-conflict levels. Exports to the EU, the US and the UK decreased by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, while exports to India and Turkey increased by 730,000 barrels per day and 180,000 barrels per day, respectively.</p><p>The Russian Ministry of Economy predicts that despite a short-term stabilization in oil production, Russia's energy production will continue to decline throughout the year. In 2022, oil and petroleum product production is expected to decline by 9.3%, and natural gas production is expected to decline by 5.6%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659919\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659919","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236009774","content_text":"在经历欧美广泛的制裁后，俄罗斯石油生产正在企稳，显示出稳定复苏的迹象。克里姆林宫最高能源官员兼副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克周四表示，继4月下降100万桶/日后，俄罗斯石油产量已开始恢复，5月产量增加20—30万桶/日，预计6月将进一步复苏。虽然欧盟尚未就对俄分阶段实施石油禁运达成协议，但主要西方石油公司已停止自行从俄罗斯购买石油。但这并不意味着对欧出口完全中断。诺瓦克周四表示，俄罗斯石油生产商已经将石油出口到其他市场，然后重新转向欧洲市场。其同时表示，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司大约一半的外国客户开立账户是为了满足该国以卢布支付的要求。国际能源署（IEA）此前预测认为，尽管遭到抵制，俄罗斯今年的石油收入仍将增长50%。欧盟仍是俄罗斯4月最大的出口市场，占俄出口总额的43%。在西方首批对俄制裁生效的3月下降后，4月俄罗斯出口量反弹，增长62万桶/日至810万桶/日，接近俄乌冲突前水平。其中对欧盟、美国和英国的出口量减少约120万桶/日，对印度和土耳其的出口量分别增长73万桶/日和18万桶/日。俄罗斯经济部预计，尽管石油产量短线企稳，俄罗斯今年全年能源产量仍将下降，预计2022年石油和石油产品的产量将下降9.3%，天然气产量预计将下降5.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DWTIF":0.6,"UCO":1,"UWTIF":1,"USO":1,"SCO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063734054,"gmtCreate":1651534774688,"gmtModify":1676534920219,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063734054","repostId":"1191873408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191873408","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651503299,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191873408?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-02 22:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | How to Find Ideal Trading Entry Positions?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191873408","media":"交易员说","summary":"理想的交易入场位可以使得止损位设置的更加合理，同时也能带来巨大的风险回报比。不过，说起来容易做起来难啊！尽管这些“完美”的交易设置可能并不常见，但这并不意味着它们“难以”被发现。如果你寻找的方法得当，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Ideal trading entry points can make stop-loss positions more reasonable and also bring a huge risk-reward ratio. However, it's easier said than done!</p><p>While these \"perfect\" trading setups may not be common, that doesn't mean they're \"difficult\" to spot. If you look for the right methods, you can lock in such ideal entry points and create a better start to the trade.</p><p>Basically, millionaire trader Nial Fuller says there are three steps to finding the ideal entry point.</p><p><b>Three keys to finding the \"perfect\" trade entry:</b></p><p>First, the simplest approach is to look for any obvious price action trading signals on the daily chart, as I personally prefer daily chart framework trading. I remember it.<b>Only look for \"very obvious\" signals and patterns, and if they are the kind you are very familiar with.</b></p><p>Next, you need to look for trading convergence factors on the trading chart that support these signals. For example, if a signal is consistent with other key price levels, or forms after a pullback/retracement within a trend, it is considered supporting information.</p><p>Essentially, if you want to find the \"perfect trading entry point,\" you need to list as many factors as possible that support the signal.</p><p><i><b>1. Find signals, patterns, and levels to trade.</b></i></p><p><i>This is a bit simple and straightforward, but it is also a skill that needs to be developed and perfected. In this article, we will use pin bar entry signals and Tailed bar entry signals.</i></p><p><i><b>2. Find entry \"filters\" and convergence factors, as well as factors supporting trading signals.</b></i></p><p><i>Examples include strong trends, key support and resistance levels, 50% volatility pullback/retracement levels, event zones, and moving averages.</i></p><p><i><b>3. Entry position adjustment and techniques</b></i><i>。</i></p><p><i>For example, the signal candlestick itself can adjust the pullback/retracement entry by 50%, or simply consider nearby key levels to obtain better entry points, thereby enabling you to set more reasonable stop-loss positions and wider profit-taking space.</i></p><p><b>I do these things every day to find my ideal entry position.</b></p><p>When I woke up, after a healthy breakfast and some exercise, I started sitting in front of my computer to see what was happening during the New York trading session. Of course, this was because I lived in Australia and the New York market had closed the previous day when I woke up. I will look at foreign exchange, stock indices, major commodity markets, see what has happened before, and their impact on Asian and European markets going forward.</p><p>My goal is to quickly browse frequently traded markets to see if there are any obvious signals or patterns. If I find anything, I will follow the second step above to see if I can find the market structure that supports the trading information, and at the same time determine whether the opportunity is really worth trading. After all, not every signal discovered is suitable for trading.</p><p><b>If a trading signal doesn't have a support convergence point, then I probably won't trade it.</b>Of course, once I have identified a signal worth trading, I will begin to judge whether it meets my trading criteria. If so, I will further study the plan, such as how to better enter the market, how to set stop-loss orders, and when to exit.</p><p><b>Let's look at some examples:</b></p><p><b>Example 1:</b></p><p>In the EUR/USD daily chart below, we can see a clear pin bar short signal, which seems to have many convergence factors supporting it. We will discuss this in the next diagram. Currently, a clearly prominent lower shadow indicates a significant price reversal in the area and strong resistance, suggesting that prices may continue to decline in the coming days. This pin bar signal fits the concept of \"obvious\" and can be seen at a glance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbcf8fafbc04a649633e4ccad7114744\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the chart below, let's look at what \"evidence\" supports this pin bar signal. In this case, there is absolutely sufficient evidence to warrant entry into the market. As shown in the chart below, the market has been in a downtrend for several months and a signal has formed near key resistance zones. The signal itself has distinct characteristics. In my opinion, all of these can serve as supporting information. Next, set up the trade directly and wait for the market to trigger the settings. Afterwards, you can go watch a movie to relax. Don't just stare at the market after entering the market and starting trading:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e16b662f6791579d6294a1810883ff\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Next, we zoom in on the pin bar view. We are now focusing on adjusting our entry positions and seeing if we can improve the risk-reward potential. Please note that in this trade, we could have entered near the 50% pullback/retracement level of the pin bar to significantly increase the risk-reward ratio. However, you can still enter somewhere below that 50% pullback/retracement position. In fact, entering the market near the 50% pullback/retracement level of the pin bar offers relatively better returns. We need to be flexible in setting our entry points closer to this level. The approximate profit target is 3 to 4 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0da3b3f4abef2d4814fd0fcfec7201\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 2:</b></p><p>Below is the daily chart of the Australian stock index SPI 200. One glance at this image will draw your attention to the eye-catching pin bar on the chart. It is clearly consistent with the levels on the daily chart. The upper shadow of this pin bar is very prominent, suggesting that the price will reverse sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b82dc8f7cf47fa97af9e06fe3f3a8be\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The chart below switches to the weekly chart. Typically, when I find a trading signal on a daily or 4-hour chart, I check the weekly chart to see how the signal makes sense in the context of a long-term time frame, or whether it makes sense.</p><p>In this case, the formation of the pin bar on the daily chart above presents a very strong key resistance/event zone on the weekly chart, as shown in the figure below. It is also consistent with the downward trend on the daily and weekly charts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb1453a971e66017e5dd53f078a9959\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, we amplify the pin bar signal on the daily chart. Please note that pullback/retracement/entry adjustments are not possible here, but the trade still has a potential profit of 2x, as the next support will appear at a very low price, as shown in the chart below. Trades like this formed within key levels/event areas, coupled with consistent trends, are certainly a worthwhile signal to trade, potentially foreshadowing a rapid and significant price movement:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5520c5f8e94866cba0c8188482deef\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 3:</b></p><p>In this example, we will see several bearish tailed bar signals formed on the crude oil daily chart (a tailed bar refers to a candlestick with a tail (shadow) that is longer than the candlestick entity). You can notice that a very strong downtrend has formed, and these bearish candlestick signals are formed after the price breaks through a key resistance level and closes above that level. These signals may not be as obvious as in the examples above, but considering the forces behind the market downturn, it is not difficult for more experienced traders to spot them:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1809c5c61b740bbd170f25c96cc18282\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Once we narrow down the chart view, we can clearly see the size of the signal candlestick, as well as the trend that has formed. These strong supporting factors converged to make this transaction easily profitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f184c397b415eddfbfeebb3dba0ed3\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Zooming in on the signal on the daily chart, we can see that even if the stop loss is just above the first tailed bar high (and above that level), the trade still has a huge potential risk-reward because the market is indeed in a \"runaway trend\" and the trend is very strong. These types of trends are best suited for adding positions to earn huge profits. Please note that on just one position here, you can easily make 5 times the profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b24f6290e32ea9b018e1485bc9dfad2\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>One of the main contents of this article is,<b>The best trades are supported by multiple converging factors.</b>In all the examples above, the trend is very clear and the signal is formed at a key level. Once you know and understand what you're looking for, everything falls into place. However, these require some training, time, and cultivating intuition to truly achieve.</p><p>I hope you remember that you are looking for a signal and a level, or a \"crossroads\" between a signal and a trend, or even just a \"crossroads\" between a level and a trend. Trade like a sniper, choosing valuable trades after doing your homework. Once you understand how to read the \"money footprint,\" or price behavior, on a chart, all of this becomes easier.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1603977621793","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | How to Find Ideal Trading Entry Positions?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | How to Find Ideal Trading Entry Positions?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">交易员说</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-02 22:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Ideal trading entry points can make stop-loss positions more reasonable and also bring a huge risk-reward ratio. However, it's easier said than done!</p><p>While these \"perfect\" trading setups may not be common, that doesn't mean they're \"difficult\" to spot. If you look for the right methods, you can lock in such ideal entry points and create a better start to the trade.</p><p>Basically, millionaire trader Nial Fuller says there are three steps to finding the ideal entry point.</p><p><b>Three keys to finding the \"perfect\" trade entry:</b></p><p>First, the simplest approach is to look for any obvious price action trading signals on the daily chart, as I personally prefer daily chart framework trading. I remember it.<b>Only look for \"very obvious\" signals and patterns, and if they are the kind you are very familiar with.</b></p><p>Next, you need to look for trading convergence factors on the trading chart that support these signals. For example, if a signal is consistent with other key price levels, or forms after a pullback/retracement within a trend, it is considered supporting information.</p><p>Essentially, if you want to find the \"perfect trading entry point,\" you need to list as many factors as possible that support the signal.</p><p><i><b>1. Find signals, patterns, and levels to trade.</b></i></p><p><i>This is a bit simple and straightforward, but it is also a skill that needs to be developed and perfected. In this article, we will use pin bar entry signals and Tailed bar entry signals.</i></p><p><i><b>2. Find entry \"filters\" and convergence factors, as well as factors supporting trading signals.</b></i></p><p><i>Examples include strong trends, key support and resistance levels, 50% volatility pullback/retracement levels, event zones, and moving averages.</i></p><p><i><b>3. Entry position adjustment and techniques</b></i><i>。</i></p><p><i>For example, the signal candlestick itself can adjust the pullback/retracement entry by 50%, or simply consider nearby key levels to obtain better entry points, thereby enabling you to set more reasonable stop-loss positions and wider profit-taking space.</i></p><p><b>I do these things every day to find my ideal entry position.</b></p><p>When I woke up, after a healthy breakfast and some exercise, I started sitting in front of my computer to see what was happening during the New York trading session. Of course, this was because I lived in Australia and the New York market had closed the previous day when I woke up. I will look at foreign exchange, stock indices, major commodity markets, see what has happened before, and their impact on Asian and European markets going forward.</p><p>My goal is to quickly browse frequently traded markets to see if there are any obvious signals or patterns. If I find anything, I will follow the second step above to see if I can find the market structure that supports the trading information, and at the same time determine whether the opportunity is really worth trading. After all, not every signal discovered is suitable for trading.</p><p><b>If a trading signal doesn't have a support convergence point, then I probably won't trade it.</b>Of course, once I have identified a signal worth trading, I will begin to judge whether it meets my trading criteria. If so, I will further study the plan, such as how to better enter the market, how to set stop-loss orders, and when to exit.</p><p><b>Let's look at some examples:</b></p><p><b>Example 1:</b></p><p>In the EUR/USD daily chart below, we can see a clear pin bar short signal, which seems to have many convergence factors supporting it. We will discuss this in the next diagram. Currently, a clearly prominent lower shadow indicates a significant price reversal in the area and strong resistance, suggesting that prices may continue to decline in the coming days. This pin bar signal fits the concept of \"obvious\" and can be seen at a glance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbcf8fafbc04a649633e4ccad7114744\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the chart below, let's look at what \"evidence\" supports this pin bar signal. In this case, there is absolutely sufficient evidence to warrant entry into the market. As shown in the chart below, the market has been in a downtrend for several months and a signal has formed near key resistance zones. The signal itself has distinct characteristics. In my opinion, all of these can serve as supporting information. Next, set up the trade directly and wait for the market to trigger the settings. Afterwards, you can go watch a movie to relax. Don't just stare at the market after entering the market and starting trading:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e16b662f6791579d6294a1810883ff\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Next, we zoom in on the pin bar view. We are now focusing on adjusting our entry positions and seeing if we can improve the risk-reward potential. Please note that in this trade, we could have entered near the 50% pullback/retracement level of the pin bar to significantly increase the risk-reward ratio. However, you can still enter somewhere below that 50% pullback/retracement position. In fact, entering the market near the 50% pullback/retracement level of the pin bar offers relatively better returns. We need to be flexible in setting our entry points closer to this level. The approximate profit target is 3 to 4 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0da3b3f4abef2d4814fd0fcfec7201\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 2:</b></p><p>Below is the daily chart of the Australian stock index SPI 200. One glance at this image will draw your attention to the eye-catching pin bar on the chart. It is clearly consistent with the levels on the daily chart. The upper shadow of this pin bar is very prominent, suggesting that the price will reverse sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b82dc8f7cf47fa97af9e06fe3f3a8be\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The chart below switches to the weekly chart. Typically, when I find a trading signal on a daily or 4-hour chart, I check the weekly chart to see how the signal makes sense in the context of a long-term time frame, or whether it makes sense.</p><p>In this case, the formation of the pin bar on the daily chart above presents a very strong key resistance/event zone on the weekly chart, as shown in the figure below. It is also consistent with the downward trend on the daily and weekly charts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb1453a971e66017e5dd53f078a9959\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, we amplify the pin bar signal on the daily chart. Please note that pullback/retracement/entry adjustments are not possible here, but the trade still has a potential profit of 2x, as the next support will appear at a very low price, as shown in the chart below. Trades like this formed within key levels/event areas, coupled with consistent trends, are certainly a worthwhile signal to trade, potentially foreshadowing a rapid and significant price movement:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5520c5f8e94866cba0c8188482deef\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 3:</b></p><p>In this example, we will see several bearish tailed bar signals formed on the crude oil daily chart (a tailed bar refers to a candlestick with a tail (shadow) that is longer than the candlestick entity). You can notice that a very strong downtrend has formed, and these bearish candlestick signals are formed after the price breaks through a key resistance level and closes above that level. These signals may not be as obvious as in the examples above, but considering the forces behind the market downturn, it is not difficult for more experienced traders to spot them:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1809c5c61b740bbd170f25c96cc18282\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Once we narrow down the chart view, we can clearly see the size of the signal candlestick, as well as the trend that has formed. These strong supporting factors converged to make this transaction easily profitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f184c397b415eddfbfeebb3dba0ed3\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Zooming in on the signal on the daily chart, we can see that even if the stop loss is just above the first tailed bar high (and above that level), the trade still has a huge potential risk-reward because the market is indeed in a \"runaway trend\" and the trend is very strong. These types of trends are best suited for adding positions to earn huge profits. Please note that on just one position here, you can easily make 5 times the profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b24f6290e32ea9b018e1485bc9dfad2\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>One of the main contents of this article is,<b>The best trades are supported by multiple converging factors.</b>In all the examples above, the trend is very clear and the signal is formed at a key level. Once you know and understand what you're looking for, everything falls into place. However, these require some training, time, and cultivating intuition to truly achieve.</p><p>I hope you remember that you are looking for a signal and a level, or a \"crossroads\" between a signal and a trend, or even just a \"crossroads\" between a level and a trend. Trade like a sniper, choosing valuable trades after doing your homework. Once you understand how to read the \"money footprint,\" or price behavior, on a chart, all of this becomes easier.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UItscfbGwpDKw1QVVq6Wjw\">交易员说</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1539":"汽车股","LI":"理想汽车","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1587":"次新股"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UItscfbGwpDKw1QVVq6Wjw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191873408","content_text":"理想的交易入场位可以使得止损位设置的更加合理，同时也能带来巨大的风险回报比。不过，说起来容易做起来难啊！尽管这些“完美”的交易设置可能并不常见，但这并不意味着它们“难以”被发现。如果你寻找的方法得当，就可以锁定这样理想的入场位，为交易创造更好的开端。基本上，百万美金交易员Nial Fuller表示，可使用三个步骤来寻找理想的入场点位。找到“完美”交易入场的三个关键：首先，最简单的方法就是，因为我个人比较喜欢日图框架交易，所以在日线图上寻找任何明显的价格行为交易信号。记住了，只找“很明显”的信号和形态，而且要是自己非常熟悉的那种。接着你要在交易图表上寻找支撑这些信号的交易汇合因素。比如，一个信号能与其他关键价位一致，或者在趋势内回撤后形成，就属于有支撑信息。从本质上讲，如果你想找到“完美的交易入场点”，你需要尽可能多地罗列出支撑信号的因素。1.找到信号、形态、水平进行交易。这有点简单直接，但也是一项需要发展和完善的技能。本文中，我们将使用pin bar入场信号和Tailed bar入场信号。2. 寻找入场“过滤器”和汇合因素，以及支撑交易信号的因素。例如强劲趋势、关键水平支撑和阻力位、50%波动回撤位、事件区域以及移动平均线等。3. 入场位调整和技巧。例如信号烛台自身的50%调整回撤入场，或简单地考虑附近的关键水平以获得更佳的入场点，从而使得自己能够设置更合理的止损位和更宽的止盈空间。为了找到理想入场位，我每天会做这些事醒来后，吃一顿健康营养早餐、再做点健身运动后，我开始坐在电脑前，看看纽约交易时段发生了什么，当然，这是因为我自己住在澳大利亚，醒来时前一天的纽约市场正好收盘了。我会看外汇、股指、主要商品市场，看看之前发生了什么，以及他们接下来对亚洲和欧洲市场的影响。我的目标是快速浏览经常交易的市场是否有比较明显的信号或者形态。如果有所发现，我便按照上面第二步，看看是否能找到支撑这个交易信息的市场结构等，同时也判断这个机会是不是真的值得交易。毕竟不是每一个发现的信号都适合交易。如果一个交易信号没有支撑汇合点，那么我可能不会交易它。当然，若锁定了值得交易的信号，我才开始判断它是不是满足我的交易标准，如果是，我再进一步研究计划，比如如何更好的入场，如何设置止损，以及何时退出等。让我们来看一些案例：示例1：在下面EUR/USD日图中，我们可以看到一个明显的pin bar做空信号，看起来这个信号的背后有很多支撑他的汇合因素。这一点我们将在下一张图中讨论。目前，留意到它的下影线明确突出，意味着价格在该区域出现较大的反转，以及遇到强阻力，并暗示接下来的数天价格可能继续走低。这个pin bar信号符合“明显”的概念，一眼就能看到：在下面图表中，我们来看看有什么“证据”在支撑这个pin bar信号。在这种情况下，绝对有足够的证据来保证入场交易。如下图所示，市场处于数月的下跌趋势中，并且在关键阻力区附近形成了信号，信号本身带有明显的特征。在我看来，这些都可以作为它的支撑信息。接下来直接设置交易，等待市场触发设置，之后你可以去看场电影放松下，不要在入场开始交易后就盯着盘面：接下来，我们放大pin bar视图。我们现在专注入场位调整，以及看看是否能提升风险回报潜力。请注意，在此交易中，我们本可以在pin bar的50%回撤位附近入场，以大大提高风险回报率。但是，你仍然可以在该50%回撤位以下的某个位置入场。事实上，在pin bar接近50%回撤位的位置入场相对有更好的回报，我们需要灵活设置入场比较接近这个位置。大概的盈利目标是3到4倍。示例2：下面是澳洲利亚股票指数SPI 200日线图。瞧了一眼这张图片，你就会被图表上抢眼的pin bar引起注意。它与日图上的水平很明显保持一致。那么这个pin bar的上影线非常突出，暗示价格将急剧反转。下图切换到周线图。通常，当在日图或4小时图上发现交易信号时，我会检查周线图，以了解该信号在长期时间框架背景下如何有意义，或者说它是否存在意义。在这种情况下，上方日线图的pin bar的形成在周线图上存在非常强大的关键阻力区/事件区域，如下图所示。它还与日线图和周线图上的下降趋势一致。最后，我们将日线图上的pin bar信号放大。请注意，此处无法进行回撤/入场调整，但该交易仍具有2倍的潜在盈利，因为下一个支撑会在很低的价位出现，如下图所示。像这样在关键级别/事件区域形成的交易，加上趋势一致，因此可以肯定这是一个值得交易的信号，它可能预示着一波快速且幅度大的价格波动：示例3：在这个示例中，我们将看到原油日线图上形成的几个看跌tailed bar信号（tailed bar指的是一个带有尾巴(影线)的烛台，影线的长度比烛台实体要更长）。你可以留意一个非常强劲的下跌趋势已经形成，这些看跌烛台信号就是在价格突破关键阻力位后下方形成并收于该水平之上。这些信号也许不如上面例子中的明显，不过考虑到市场空头背后的力量，经验比较丰富的交易者还是不难发现它们：一旦我们缩小图表视图，就可以清晰地看到信号烛台大小，以及形成的趋势。这些强大的支撑汇合因素使得这笔交易轻松盈利。把日线图上的信号放大，我们可以看到，即使止损刚好高于第一个tailed bar高点（并超过该水平），该交易仍存在巨大的潜在风险回报，因为该市场确实处于“失控趋势”，趋势非常强劲。这些类型的趋势最适合追加头寸，以此赚取巨额利润。请注意，仅在此处的一个位置上，你就可以轻松获得5倍的利润。总结本文中一个主要内容就是，最好的交易是得到多个汇合因素支撑的。在上述所有示例中，趋势非常明显，并且信号在关键水平上形成。一旦你了解并理解了正在寻找的东西，所有一切都水到渠成。然而，这些需要一些训练、时间和培养直觉才能真正获得。我希望你记住，你正在寻找的信号和水平或信号和趋势的“交叉点”，甚至只是水平和趋势的“交叉点”，就像狙击手一样进行交易，在做好功课的前提下，选择那些有价值的交易去做。一旦你理解了如何阅读图表上的“资金足迹”，即价格行为，所有这一切都会变得更容易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"02015":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063510828,"gmtCreate":1651490826781,"gmtModify":1676534915305,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063510828","repostId":"1107758318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107758318","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651488624,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107758318?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-02 18:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple faces EU antitrust lawsuit over payment issues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107758318","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月2日，欧盟正式对苹果提出反垄断起诉，因苹果公司限制用户在苹果设备上通过第三方购买技术和服务。欧盟委员会在一份声明中指控苹果通过Apple Pay服务滥用其在移动钱包领域的主导地位，这可能导致苹果面","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 2, the EU officially...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>An antitrust lawsuit has been filed because Apple restricts users from purchasing technology and services on Apple devices through third parties. In a statement, the European Commission accused Apple of abusing its dominant position in the mobile wallet market through its Apple Pay service, which could result in Apple facing hefty fines. (Bloomberg)</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple faces EU antitrust lawsuit over payment issues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple faces EU antitrust lawsuit over payment issues\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-02 18:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 2, the EU officially...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>An antitrust lawsuit has been filed because Apple restricts users from purchasing technology and services on Apple devices through third parties. In a statement, the European Commission accused Apple of abusing its dominant position in the mobile wallet market through its Apple Pay service, which could result in Apple facing hefty fines. (Bloomberg)</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f224bb016b853641f590b6753763d1","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107758318","content_text":"5月2日，欧盟正式对苹果提出反垄断起诉，因苹果公司限制用户在苹果设备上通过第三方购买技术和服务。欧盟委员会在一份声明中指控苹果通过Apple Pay服务滥用其在移动钱包领域的主导地位，这可能导致苹果面临巨额罚款。（彭博）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":102717168,"gmtCreate":1620253774654,"gmtModify":1704340701858,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"History will repeat, the Q is&nbsp;when...","listText":"History will repeat, the Q is&nbsp;when...","text":"History will repeat, the Q is when...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102717168","repostId":"1148686352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148686352","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620224535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148686352?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-05 22:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148686352","media":"benzinga","summary":"What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the ","content":"<div>\n<p>What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time.\nWhere The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02.\nWhat Else Was Going On In The World?In...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-05 22:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market><strong>benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time.\nWhere The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02.\nWhat Else Was Going On In The World?In...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148686352","content_text":"What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time.\nWhere The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02.\nWhat Else Was Going On In The World?In 1893, Thomas Edison completed the world’s first movie studio in West Orange, New Jersey. Lizzie Borden was acquitted of the ax murders of her father and stepmother. A fresh, one-pound beef steak cost 10 cents.\nPanic Of 1893:On May 5, 1893, the Dow Jones Index dropped more than 24% from 39.90 to 30.02. It would mark the worst intraday sell-off in U.S. history at the time, a record that would stand until 1929.\nThe Panic of 1893 was triggered in part by falling gold reserves in the U.S. Treasury. At the time, the U.S. was on the gold standard, meaning U.S. dollars could be redeemed for physical gold. When Treasury gold reserves dropped from $190 million in 1890 to $100 million by 1893, Americans grew concerned that the Treasury might run out of gold and began withdrawing bank notes and converting them to gold, placing extreme strain on the U.S. banking industry and credit markets.\nThe May 5 sell-off was triggered in part by the bankruptcy of Nation Cordage the day before.General Electric CompanyGE 0.34%shares dropped 28% on the day from $80 to $58.\nFortunately for investors, the Panic of 1893 didn’t last for long. By the end of the day, the market nearly completely recovered its losses. GE, for example, closed the session at $78.50.\nThe Panic of 1893 would ravage the U.S. economy, triggering a severe four-year depression. Roughly 14,000 U.S. businesses closed, and unemployment rose to 20%. The event would mark the worst economic downturn in U.S. history until the Great Depression began in 1929.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171757291,"gmtCreate":1626768146713,"gmtModify":1703764809359,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Be prepared","listText":"Be prepared","text":"Be prepared","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171757291","repostId":"1168215370","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"content":"big ? not enough","text":"big ? not enough","html":"big ? not enough"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116479969,"gmtCreate":1622817159751,"gmtModify":1704191836860,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope they have a new product to extend the glory?","listText":"Hope they have a new product to extend the glory?","text":"Hope they have a new product to extend the glory?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/116479969","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122373606?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>\n <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>\n <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p>\n<p>Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p>\n<p>To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's business growth</b></p>\n<p>Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p>\n<p>On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p>\n<p>Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p>\n<p>This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's future valuation</b></p>\n<p>AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p>\n<p><b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p>\n<p>Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p>\n<p>AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p>\n<p>Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 15:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110511495,"gmtCreate":1622468095917,"gmtModify":1704184834821,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Emm...neither?","listText":"Emm...neither?","text":"Emm...neither?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110511495","repostId":"2139043042","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581742924827239","authorId":"3581742924827239","name":"JiaocyTi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c16d760078e396b46033bc97afede0c8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581742924827239","authorIdStr":"3581742924827239"},"content":"Wait for more option or better chance","text":"Wait for more option or better chance","html":"Wait for more option or better chance"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026009217,"gmtCreate":1653288021939,"gmtModify":1676535254426,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Risk and opportunity","listText":"Risk and opportunity","text":"Risk and opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026009217","repostId":"1126352915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126352915","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653287308,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126352915?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 14:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street has huge differences in its predictions for the year-end performance of US stocks! Still guessing at the bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126352915","media":"金十数据","summary":"华尔街目前对标普500指数年底最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。美股连续七周下跌，上周五标普500指数一度下跌多达2.3%，五个月内下跌超过20%，险熊市收盘的风险。然而，买家在最后一小时突然涌入","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street currently has a 37% gap between its year-end high and low forecasts for the S&P 500.</p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 2.3% last Friday, marking a drop of more than 20% in five months, raising the risk of a bear market closing. However, a sudden influx of buyers in the last hour narrowed its decline since January 3 to 18.7%, once again avoiding a bear market. This has left Wall Street forecasters increasingly bewildered by the trend of US stocks, as if they had returned to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6391cd2811caa710d42772057d5207e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The difference is that the disruption of the pandemic has subsided, and the biggest blow now comes from the Federal Reserve, which is determined to squeeze excess funds out of the economy. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war, supply chains are once again at risk of disruption, and stock valuations are at a 20-year high.</p><p>As a result, Wall Street's predictions were very different. Six more strategists lowered their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 this month.<b>The current gap between the highest and lowest forecasts has reached 37%.</b>In the same period of the past decade, such a huge divergence has only occurred once: right after the sell-off in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ad85b6d65a8e4418b8793f276a2d7f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Evidence of investor confusion is everywhere. Just this week, the stock prices of Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, Ark Investment, and technology companies alternated between gains and losses for five consecutive days. Meanwhile, retail companies such as Walmart, which served as safe havens during market turmoil, suddenly collapsed and plummeted due to poor earnings reports.</p><p>How bad could things get? For those who are bearish, a recession is an inevitable result of the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. Those who are bullish on the Federal Reserve may pin their hopes on the fact that it is moving towards its goal.</p><p>Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said in a phone call:</p><p>“The nature of the uncertainty we face is different, but Wall Street strategists’ jobs are no easier now than they were during the pandemic. There is no certainty about the economic trajectory. There are ‘recession’ camps, ‘soft landing camps,’ and various views in between.” Currently, financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since 1987. The financial condition index tracked by Goldman Sachs has fallen 1% since its first rate hike two months ago. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that<b>The current pace of tightening exceeds that of all five previous rate hike cycles.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e02f4d19d67c2256fd6abc17a1f02b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This week, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus reiterated his bullish stance in an interview with foreign media, with his year-end target price of 5,330 points, the highest in the latest strategist survey. He saw similarities between the current and past exaggerations of the US stock market decline. He said:</p><p>“My intuition now tells me that the current situation looks a lot like early 2009, 1994, and the fourth quarter of 2018. If you make negative predictions at the wrong time, you will miss the subsequent rebound.” March 2009 marked the beginning of a long bull market following the global financial crisis. In 1994, the Federal Reserve began its rate hike cycle and successfully avoided a recession. In late 2018, amid a stock market crash, the Federal Reserve halted rate hike and began easing policy the following year.</p><p>Currently, policymakers have little sympathy for the bleeding in the market. However, investors have not given up hope that the Federal Reserve will intervene when the situation worsens, namely the expectation of \"Fed put options\".<b>In Bank of America's latest survey, fund managers expect \"Fed put options\" to take effect when the S&P 500 falls to 3,529 points, a level 9.5% lower than last Friday's closing price.</b></p><p>However, the market's slow recovery has frustrated even the most pessimistic people on Wall Street. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eric Johnston's year-end target is 3,900 points, the lowest among strategists tracked by Bloomberg. In early May, after the S&P 500's worst April performance in 50 years, he told clients that the stock market was ready for a rebound. A few weeks later, the massacre showed no signs of abating, and he admitted his guilt.</p><p><b>The biggest concern: a bear market is coming, but panic is not yet here.</b></p><p>Worse still, has the US stock market crash so far been a panic? In some ways, the answer is no, which could be a bad sign for the stock market in the short term.</p><p>Even though US stocks have entered a bear market for the first time since March 2020,<b>Trading volume has remained average.</b>，<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index is below its high this month.</b>At the same time,<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange's SKEW index (the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options relative to call options) is nearing a two-year low.</b>。</p><p>From a reverse perspective, a relative lack of panic is not necessarily a good thing. AlphaTrAI analyst Max Gokhman believes that,<b>The S&P 500 index moved in a relatively orderly manner, without any obvious signs of panic, indicating that a bottom has not yet appeared.</b>Coupled with the Federal Reserve's intention to continue tightening monetary conditions, the outlook for US stocks is bleak, and there may be more room for further declines. The tightening cycle is now only a third of the way through, and a recession has not yet occurred.</p><p>Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives at Susquehanna International Group, said:</p><p>“We usually see more trading volume at true lows, which is a sign that investors have surrendered. Current trading volume isn’t very representative; I’d prefer to see a surge in trading volume to give me more confidence in confirming the bottom of US stocks,” SentimentTrader analyst Jay Kaeppel said in an interview last Friday.</p><p>“We have fear, doubt, and anxiety, but we haven’t surrendered. No one has sold stocks yet, although I think that will happen. Wake me up when the VIX (fear index) reaches 45, because historically, every sharp drop in the stock market has been accompanied by a surge in the VIX to 40 or 45, which is currently around 30.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2299f3fd709ff49f919aa7601dc3ce\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, is watching for signs of surrender in three areas: the VIX is above 40; The ratio of put options to call options trading volume (assessing market investment sentiment) reached 1.35 – currently 1.27; The stock trading volume exceeded 20 billion shares. He wrote in a recent report:</p><p>\"The end of a correction is usually accompanied by fear and surrender—extreme volatility and trading volume.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58c264a99de8fa17fb25fc8ecfec7e5\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Craig W. Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, shares a similar view. He also expects the volatility index to reach 40 points and uses an indicator he calls the \"40-week technique,\" which measures how many stocks are above or below the 40-week moving average. The indicator has fallen to 13%, and if it falls below 10%, it could indicate that the market is nearing the bottom.</p><p>He wrote in a report, \"Historically, data below 10% indicates that the overall market is nearing an inflection point.\"</p><p>Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at Boston Partners, also pointed out that<b>Corporate profit margins may shrink further.</b>Therefore, the likelihood of US stocks declining is higher than rising, and analysts may lower their overall valuations in the future until a bottom valuation appears. He said:</p><p>\"The most important question right now is whether the U.S. will achieve a soft landing or fall into a recession. If the Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down to their current range, then we are more inclined to a recession than a soft landing. And a recession could push the S&P 500's P/E to about 13 times, at which point it could indicate that almost all assets in the market are undervalued.\"<b>Valuations are attractive, but investors remain cautious.</b></p><p>After $5.5 trillion in market capitalization evaporated, it was not easy for US tech stocks to bottom out, but some signals brought hope to investors.</p><p>Rising interest rates, concerns about slowing economic growth, and soaring inflation have created a perfect storm to hit U.S. stocks. Tech stocks have been hit hard this year, from retail investors who invested in Ark Investment last year to asset managers who invested in tech giants like Apple.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100, dominated by technology stocks, has fallen nearly 30% from its peak last year, marking its seventh consecutive week of decline and its longest losing streak since 2011. This makes its valuation look more attractive.</p><p>As the valuation bubble formed during the pandemic bursts,<b>The Nasdaq's current P/E is about 20 times expected earnings, in line with its long-term average.</b>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks chipmakers such as Intel Corp. and ASML Holding NV, expects a P/E of about 15 times over the next 12 months, far below the peak of 24 times reached in early 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/932197ffffd6f7b0420a45dbd728e229\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jordan Stuart, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said:</p><p>“Investors find it difficult to remain patient when so much carnage occurs. But this pain should end soon. Our advice is that growth investors need to be prepared.” Last week, Jefferies strategists turned bullish on the information technology sector, stating in a report that investors’ pursuit of cash in anticipation of extreme interest rate scenarios “has been overly reflected in the compression of market valuations.”</p><p>Wells Fargo Securities said it is abandoning its negative view on growth stocks due to recent extreme bearish sentiment. In fact, the number of companies trading above the 200-day moving average has reached its lowest level since the first half of 2020, and an indicator of stock market investor enthusiasm has reached “unambiguous contrarian buy territory.”</p><p>For Kevin Mahn, who runs Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, cash-rich Apple and Microsoft will make up for their stock price losses over time because \"most of the losses have ended\" and some good buying opportunities are emerging in the technology sector.</p><p>However, he is also cautious about the timing of the rebound, as the market has not yet shown signs of surrendering. “I certainly wouldn’t call it a bottom, and I’m sure there will be more selling in the future,” he said.</p><p>Like Mahn,<b>Many investors are torn between prices that now look more attractive and the reality that the global economic outlook remains highly uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Technology stocks are experiencing significant capital outflows.</b>A recent Bank of America survey showed that fund managers were \"extremely short\" technology stocks, with their allocation to the sector at its lowest level since August 2006.</p><p><b>The options market, however, points to a potential rebound.</b>The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, which tracks the $157 billion Nasdaq, shows that the ratio of put options based on open contracts recently hit a two-year low, while open calls have surged to their highest level since 2008 (a decline in the put option ratio is usually a bullish signal).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eef381bcbe9afd956ab0591ecf708ff\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street has huge differences in its predictions for the year-end performance of US stocks! Still guessing at the bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street has huge differences in its predictions for the year-end performance of US stocks! Still guessing at the bottom?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 14:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street currently has a 37% gap between its year-end high and low forecasts for the S&P 500.</p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 2.3% last Friday, marking a drop of more than 20% in five months, raising the risk of a bear market closing. However, a sudden influx of buyers in the last hour narrowed its decline since January 3 to 18.7%, once again avoiding a bear market. This has left Wall Street forecasters increasingly bewildered by the trend of US stocks, as if they had returned to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6391cd2811caa710d42772057d5207e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The difference is that the disruption of the pandemic has subsided, and the biggest blow now comes from the Federal Reserve, which is determined to squeeze excess funds out of the economy. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war, supply chains are once again at risk of disruption, and stock valuations are at a 20-year high.</p><p>As a result, Wall Street's predictions were very different. Six more strategists lowered their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 this month.<b>The current gap between the highest and lowest forecasts has reached 37%.</b>In the same period of the past decade, such a huge divergence has only occurred once: right after the sell-off in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ad85b6d65a8e4418b8793f276a2d7f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Evidence of investor confusion is everywhere. Just this week, the stock prices of Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, Ark Investment, and technology companies alternated between gains and losses for five consecutive days. Meanwhile, retail companies such as Walmart, which served as safe havens during market turmoil, suddenly collapsed and plummeted due to poor earnings reports.</p><p>How bad could things get? For those who are bearish, a recession is an inevitable result of the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. Those who are bullish on the Federal Reserve may pin their hopes on the fact that it is moving towards its goal.</p><p>Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said in a phone call:</p><p>“The nature of the uncertainty we face is different, but Wall Street strategists’ jobs are no easier now than they were during the pandemic. There is no certainty about the economic trajectory. There are ‘recession’ camps, ‘soft landing camps,’ and various views in between.” Currently, financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since 1987. The financial condition index tracked by Goldman Sachs has fallen 1% since its first rate hike two months ago. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that<b>The current pace of tightening exceeds that of all five previous rate hike cycles.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e02f4d19d67c2256fd6abc17a1f02b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This week, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus reiterated his bullish stance in an interview with foreign media, with his year-end target price of 5,330 points, the highest in the latest strategist survey. He saw similarities between the current and past exaggerations of the US stock market decline. He said:</p><p>“My intuition now tells me that the current situation looks a lot like early 2009, 1994, and the fourth quarter of 2018. If you make negative predictions at the wrong time, you will miss the subsequent rebound.” March 2009 marked the beginning of a long bull market following the global financial crisis. In 1994, the Federal Reserve began its rate hike cycle and successfully avoided a recession. In late 2018, amid a stock market crash, the Federal Reserve halted rate hike and began easing policy the following year.</p><p>Currently, policymakers have little sympathy for the bleeding in the market. However, investors have not given up hope that the Federal Reserve will intervene when the situation worsens, namely the expectation of \"Fed put options\".<b>In Bank of America's latest survey, fund managers expect \"Fed put options\" to take effect when the S&P 500 falls to 3,529 points, a level 9.5% lower than last Friday's closing price.</b></p><p>However, the market's slow recovery has frustrated even the most pessimistic people on Wall Street. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eric Johnston's year-end target is 3,900 points, the lowest among strategists tracked by Bloomberg. In early May, after the S&P 500's worst April performance in 50 years, he told clients that the stock market was ready for a rebound. A few weeks later, the massacre showed no signs of abating, and he admitted his guilt.</p><p><b>The biggest concern: a bear market is coming, but panic is not yet here.</b></p><p>Worse still, has the US stock market crash so far been a panic? In some ways, the answer is no, which could be a bad sign for the stock market in the short term.</p><p>Even though US stocks have entered a bear market for the first time since March 2020,<b>Trading volume has remained average.</b>，<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index is below its high this month.</b>At the same time,<b>The Chicago Board Options Exchange's SKEW index (the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options relative to call options) is nearing a two-year low.</b>。</p><p>From a reverse perspective, a relative lack of panic is not necessarily a good thing. AlphaTrAI analyst Max Gokhman believes that,<b>The S&P 500 index moved in a relatively orderly manner, without any obvious signs of panic, indicating that a bottom has not yet appeared.</b>Coupled with the Federal Reserve's intention to continue tightening monetary conditions, the outlook for US stocks is bleak, and there may be more room for further declines. The tightening cycle is now only a third of the way through, and a recession has not yet occurred.</p><p>Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives at Susquehanna International Group, said:</p><p>“We usually see more trading volume at true lows, which is a sign that investors have surrendered. Current trading volume isn’t very representative; I’d prefer to see a surge in trading volume to give me more confidence in confirming the bottom of US stocks,” SentimentTrader analyst Jay Kaeppel said in an interview last Friday.</p><p>“We have fear, doubt, and anxiety, but we haven’t surrendered. No one has sold stocks yet, although I think that will happen. Wake me up when the VIX (fear index) reaches 45, because historically, every sharp drop in the stock market has been accompanied by a surge in the VIX to 40 or 45, which is currently around 30.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2299f3fd709ff49f919aa7601dc3ce\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, is watching for signs of surrender in three areas: the VIX is above 40; The ratio of put options to call options trading volume (assessing market investment sentiment) reached 1.35 – currently 1.27; The stock trading volume exceeded 20 billion shares. He wrote in a recent report:</p><p>\"The end of a correction is usually accompanied by fear and surrender—extreme volatility and trading volume.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58c264a99de8fa17fb25fc8ecfec7e5\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Craig W. Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, shares a similar view. He also expects the volatility index to reach 40 points and uses an indicator he calls the \"40-week technique,\" which measures how many stocks are above or below the 40-week moving average. The indicator has fallen to 13%, and if it falls below 10%, it could indicate that the market is nearing the bottom.</p><p>He wrote in a report, \"Historically, data below 10% indicates that the overall market is nearing an inflection point.\"</p><p>Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at Boston Partners, also pointed out that<b>Corporate profit margins may shrink further.</b>Therefore, the likelihood of US stocks declining is higher than rising, and analysts may lower their overall valuations in the future until a bottom valuation appears. He said:</p><p>\"The most important question right now is whether the U.S. will achieve a soft landing or fall into a recession. If the Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down to their current range, then we are more inclined to a recession than a soft landing. And a recession could push the S&P 500's P/E to about 13 times, at which point it could indicate that almost all assets in the market are undervalued.\"<b>Valuations are attractive, but investors remain cautious.</b></p><p>After $5.5 trillion in market capitalization evaporated, it was not easy for US tech stocks to bottom out, but some signals brought hope to investors.</p><p>Rising interest rates, concerns about slowing economic growth, and soaring inflation have created a perfect storm to hit U.S. stocks. Tech stocks have been hit hard this year, from retail investors who invested in Ark Investment last year to asset managers who invested in tech giants like Apple.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100, dominated by technology stocks, has fallen nearly 30% from its peak last year, marking its seventh consecutive week of decline and its longest losing streak since 2011. This makes its valuation look more attractive.</p><p>As the valuation bubble formed during the pandemic bursts,<b>The Nasdaq's current P/E is about 20 times expected earnings, in line with its long-term average.</b>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks chipmakers such as Intel Corp. and ASML Holding NV, expects a P/E of about 15 times over the next 12 months, far below the peak of 24 times reached in early 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/932197ffffd6f7b0420a45dbd728e229\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jordan Stuart, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said:</p><p>“Investors find it difficult to remain patient when so much carnage occurs. But this pain should end soon. Our advice is that growth investors need to be prepared.” Last week, Jefferies strategists turned bullish on the information technology sector, stating in a report that investors’ pursuit of cash in anticipation of extreme interest rate scenarios “has been overly reflected in the compression of market valuations.”</p><p>Wells Fargo Securities said it is abandoning its negative view on growth stocks due to recent extreme bearish sentiment. In fact, the number of companies trading above the 200-day moving average has reached its lowest level since the first half of 2020, and an indicator of stock market investor enthusiasm has reached “unambiguous contrarian buy territory.”</p><p>For Kevin Mahn, who runs Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, cash-rich Apple and Microsoft will make up for their stock price losses over time because \"most of the losses have ended\" and some good buying opportunities are emerging in the technology sector.</p><p>However, he is also cautious about the timing of the rebound, as the market has not yet shown signs of surrendering. “I certainly wouldn’t call it a bottom, and I’m sure there will be more selling in the future,” he said.</p><p>Like Mahn,<b>Many investors are torn between prices that now look more attractive and the reality that the global economic outlook remains highly uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Technology stocks are experiencing significant capital outflows.</b>A recent Bank of America survey showed that fund managers were \"extremely short\" technology stocks, with their allocation to the sector at its lowest level since August 2006.</p><p><b>The options market, however, points to a potential rebound.</b>The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, which tracks the $157 billion Nasdaq, shows that the ratio of put options based on open contracts recently hit a two-year low, while open calls have surged to their highest level since 2008 (a decline in the put option ratio is usually a bullish signal).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eef381bcbe9afd956ab0591ecf708ff\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94453\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94453","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126352915","content_text":"华尔街目前对标普500指数年底最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。美股连续七周下跌，上周五标普500指数一度下跌多达2.3%，五个月内下跌超过20%，险熊市收盘的风险。然而，买家在最后一小时突然涌入，使其自1月3日以来的跌幅收窄至18.7%，再次避免跌入熊市。这让华尔街的预言家们像回到新冠疫情爆发初期一样，对美股的走势越来越摸不着头脑。不同的是，疫情的扰乱已经有所消退，而现在最重大的打击来自美联储，它一心想从经济中榨取过剩的资金。再加上俄乌战争，供应链再度面临破坏的风险，股票估值处于20年来的高位。结果就是，华尔街的预测结果大相径庭。本月又有六位策略师下调了对标普500指数的年终预期，目前最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。在过去十年的同期，这种巨大的分歧只出现过一次：就在2020年3月的抛售之后。投资者困惑的证据无处不在。就在本周，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF方舟投资（Ark Investment）和科技公司的股价连续五天在盈亏之间交替。与此同时，沃尔玛等在市场动荡期间作为避风港的零售公司因财报爆雷突然崩溃大跌。事情会变得多糟糕？对于那些看空者来说，衰退是美联储对抗通胀的不可避免的结果。看好美联储的人可能会寄希望于其正在朝着目标前进。LPL Financial首席股票策略师昆西·克劳斯比（Quincy Krosby）在电话中说:“我们面临的不确定性的性质不同了，但华尔街策略师现在的工作并不比疫情期间容易。经济走向没有确定性。有‘衰退’阵营、‘软着陆阵营’，以及介于两者之间的各种观点。”当前，金融环境收紧的速度是自1987年以来最快的。高盛集团追踪的金融状况指数自两个月前首次加息以来已下跌1%。彭博汇编的数据显示，现阶段的紧缩步伐超过了之前所有五个加息周期。本周，奥本海默的约翰·斯托尔茨福斯（John Stoltzfus）在接受外媒采访时重申了他的看涨立场，他的年终目标价为5330点，是最新的策略师调查中最高的。他看到了现在和过去夸大美股跌势之间的相似之处。他说：“现在我的直觉告诉我，当前的情形看起来很像2009年初，像1994年，也像2018年第四季度。如果你不合时宜地做出负面预测，你就会错过之后的反弹。”2009年3月标志着在全球金融危机后长期牛市的开始。1994年，美联储开始了加息周期并成功避免了经济衰退。2018年底，在股市暴跌的情况下，美联储停止了加息，并于次年开始放宽政策。目前，政策制定者对市场的流血几乎没有同情之心。但投资者并未放弃在情况恶化时美联储介入的希望，即对“美联储看跌期权”的预期。在美国银行最新的调查中，基金经理预计，当标普指数跌至3529点时，“美联储看跌期权”将开始生效，该水平比上周五收盘价低9.5%。然而，市场迟迟未能复苏，令华尔街上最不乐观的人也感到沮丧。Cantor Fitzgerald分析师Eric Johnston的年终目标为3900点，这是彭博追踪的策略师中最低的。5月初，在标普500指数出现50年来最糟糕的4月表现之后，他告诉客户，股市已经准备好反弹。几周后，大屠杀没有减弱的迹象，他承认了自己的过失。最大的隐忧：熊市将至，但恐慌未至更糟糕的是，迄今为止，美股的崩盘是否是一场恐慌？从某些方面来看，答案是否定的，这可能在短期内对股市来说是个坏兆头。即使美股自2020年3月以来首次触及熊市，但交易量一直处于平均水平，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数低于本月的高点。与此同时，芝加哥期权交易所SKEW指数（标普500看跌期权相对于看涨期权的隐含波动率）接近两年低点。从逆向的角度来看，相对缺乏恐慌不一定是好事。AlphaTrAI分析师Max Gokhman认为，标普500指数的走势相对有序，没有任何明显的恐慌迹象，这表明底部尚未出现。再加上美联储打算继续寻求收紧金融条件，美股前景黯淡，可能还有更多的下跌空间。现在紧缩周期仅进行了三分之一，而衰退尚未出现。Susquehanna International Group衍生品联席主管Chris Murphy表示：“我们通常会在真正的低点看到更多成交量，这是投资者投降的迹象。而目前的成交量并没有什么代表性，我更愿意看到成交量激增，以便对确认美股的底部更有信心。”SentimenTrader分析师Jay Kaeppel上周五在接受采访时说：“我们有恐惧、怀疑和焦虑，但我们没有投降。还没有人抛售股票，虽然我认为这种情况会发生。等VIX（恐慌指数）达到45时再叫醒我，因为回顾历史，每次股市大幅下跌都会伴随着VIX飙升到40或45，而VIX目前在30左右。”Evercore ISI首席股票和量化策略师朱利安·伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）正在观察三个方面的投降迹象：VIX高于40；出售期权与买入期权交易量比率（评估市场的投资气氛）达到1.35——当前为1.27；股票成交量超过200亿股。他在最近的一份报告中写道：“修正的结束通常伴随着恐惧和投降——极端波动和成交量。”Piper Sandler的首席市场技术人员Craig W.Johnson也持类似观点。他也预计波动率指数将触及40点，并使用了一项他称之为“40周技术”的指标，该指标衡量有多少只股票高于或低于40周移动平均线，该指标已降至13%，如果低于10%，就有可能表明市场已经接近底部。他在一份报告中写道，“历史上，低于10%的数据表明，整体市场接近拐点”。Boston Partners全球市场研究主管MikeMullaney还指出，企业利润率有可能进一步收缩，所以美股下行的可能性要高于上涨，未来分析师可能会下调整体估值，直至底部估值的出现。他表示：“目前最重要的问题是美国会否实现经济软着陆，还是会陷入经济衰退。如果美联储致力于将通胀压低至他们的目前区间，那么我们更倾向于衰退而不是软着陆。而经济衰退可能将标普500的市盈率打到13倍左右，届时这个水平可能表明市场上几乎所有的资产都被低估了。”估值吸引力十足，但投资者仍保持谨慎在市值蒸发5.5万亿美元后，美股科技股触底尚不容易，但有一些信号给投资者带来了希望。利率上升、对经济增长放缓的担忧和通胀飙升形成了冲击美股的完美风暴，科技股今年受到重创，不论是去年投资方舟投资（Ark Investment）的散户，还是投资苹果等科技巨头的资产管理公司，无一幸免遇难。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数较去年的峰值下跌了近30%，连续7周录得下跌，创自2011年以来最长的连跌。这使得其估值看起来更有吸引力。随着疫情期间形成的估值泡沫消退，纳指目前的市盈率约为预期收益的20倍，与长期平均水平一致。追踪英特尔（Intel Corp.）和阿斯麦控股（ASML Holding NV）等芯片制造商的费城半导体指数（Philadelphia Semiconductor Index）未来12个月预期市盈率约为15倍，远低于2021年初创下的24倍的峰值。Federated Hermes的投资组合经理Jordan Stuart说：“当发生如此多的屠杀时，投资者很难保有耐心。但这种痛苦应该很快就会结束。我们的建议是成长型投资者需要做好准备。”上周，杰富瑞的策略师转而看好信息技术行业，并在一份报告中表示，投资者因对极端利率情景的预期而追捧现金的情况“已过度反映在市场估值的压缩上”。富国银行证券表示，由于看跌情绪在近期达到极端，它正在放弃对成长股的负面看法。事实上，交易价格高于200天移动平均线的公司数量已经达到了2020年上半年以来的最低水平，而一项衡量股市投资者热情的指标已经到达“明确的反向投资者买入区域”（unambiguous contrarian buy territory）。对于经营Hennion & Walsh Asset Management的Kevin Mahn来说，现金充裕的苹果和微软将随着时间的推移弥补股价亏损，因为“大部分亏损已经结束”，而且科技领域正在出现一些好的买入机会。然而，他也对反弹的时机持谨慎态度，因为市场尚未出现投降的迹象。“我当然不会称之为底部，而且我确信未来还会有更多的抛售”，他说。与Mahn一样，许多投资者在现在看起来更具吸引力的价格与全球经济前景仍然高度不确定的现实之间左右为难。科技股的资金外流严重。美国银行最近的一项调查显示，基金经理“极度做空”科技股，对该行业的配置处于2006年8月以来的最低水平。期权市场却指向潜在的反弹。追踪纳指的规模达1570亿美元的Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF期权显示基于未平仓合约的看跌期权比率最近触及两年来的最低水平，未平仓的看涨期权则已飙升至2008年以来的最高水平（看跌期权比率的下降通常是看涨信号）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863788478,"gmtCreate":1632436903594,"gmtModify":1676530780344,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863788478","repostId":"2169665501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2169665501","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1632370388,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2169665501?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-23 12:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting Commentary: The decision is basically settled, Powell takes the \"wine glass\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169665501","media":"新浪财经","summary":"核心观点\n9月议息会议，美联储维持基准利率和购债规模不变，声明中提及“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。经济预测和点阵图显示加息预期进一步提前。鲍威尔讲话较为鹰派，表示缩减购债规模","content":"<p>Core Points</p><p>At its September policy meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate and bond purchases unchanged, stating that \"if progress is broadly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow soon.\" Economic forecasts and dot plots show that rate hike expectations have been brought forward further. Powell's speech was more hawkish, indicating that the conditions for reducing the scale of bond purchases could be met as early as the next meeting. We believe that, based on the meeting statement and Powell's speech, Taper may be announced in November and implemented starting in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion per month until the middle of next year. The turning point in US Treasury yields may depend on the timing of the debt ceiling resolution.</p><p>Interest rate meeting results: Regarding interest rate tools, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% at this meeting; Regarding asset purchases, the Federal Reserve stated that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow soon,\" and reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals.\" Regarding economic expectations, the Federal Reserve added \"in recent months, the situation in the sectors most affected by the pandemic has improved, but the increase in cases has delayed the recovery progress,\" and changed the description of inflation from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated,\" but it is still temporary.</p><p>Policy interest rate forecasts and economic outlook forecasts: The dot plot of policy interest rate forecasts shows that all policymakers expect Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with 9 members expecting rate hike in 2022 and 17 members expecting rate hike in 2023. Regarding economic outlook forecasts, the Federal Reserve has significantly lowered its economic growth forecast for this year and raised its inflation forecast. GDP growth is expected to be 5.9% in 2021, compared to 7.0% in June this year; The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8% in 2021, compared to 4.5% in June this year; The PCE inflation rate is expected to be 4.2% in 2021, compared to 3.4% in June this year. The core PCE inflation rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2021, compared to 3.0% in June this year.</p><p>Key points of Powell's speech: Substantial progress has been made on inflation; For myself and many FOMC members, substantial progress has been made on employment issues; The wording in the statement suggests that the conditions for reducing the scale of bond purchases may be met as early as the next meeting. If the economy continues to move in line with expectations, tightening measures could easily be implemented at the next meeting, and the tapering of bond purchases could end around the middle of next year. tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; When assessing maximum employment, it is true that different demographic indicators must be looked at, and the persistent racial disparity in unemployment rates is quite disturbing.</p><p>Recent fundamentals in the United States: Regarding the pandemic, the number of newly confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus has declined, and the pandemic is slowing down marginally. In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm payrolls continued to grow, but the growth rate in August was far lower than expected, hitting a new low since January 2021. Residents' increased concerns about the epidemic are the main reason why the number of new non-farm payrolls was far lower than market expectations. Regarding inflation, the PPI hit a new high in August, while the CPI increase slowed but remained high. Energy was the main CPI growth item, and market inflation expectations eased. In terms of consumption, August retail data far exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal upward trend. In terms of investment, the growth rate of new orders for durable goods continued to improve, but it slowed down somewhat. In terms of economic prosperity, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI in August showed a slowdown in economic recovery, but it remained in a relatively high expansion range.</p><p>Taper's boots are basically settled, and Powell takes the \"wine glass\" and doesn't sing \"dove\". This interest rate meeting statement is the first to explicitly provide information on reducing the scale of bond purchases. In his subsequent speeches, Powell also focused more on Taper, and instead of continuing his usual dovish rhetoric, he laid the groundwork for Taper. Judging from the first mention of tapering bond purchases in the policy meeting statement and Powell's subsequent statements, Taper's shoes are basically settled.</p><p>Dot plots and economic forecasts continue to indicate that rate hike expectations are ahead of schedule, and the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy sooner than the market expects. At this meeting, dot plots and economic forecasts indicated that the Federal Reserve is optimistic about long-term economic growth but is more concerned about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot was just a personal prediction, as he did in June. This indicates that the rate hike shown in the dot plot this time foreshadows a possible policy shift. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expects.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented starting in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion per month until the middle of next year. The turning point in US Treasury yields may depend on the timing of the debt ceiling resolution. If employment does not deteriorate more than expected, the Federal Reserve will most likely announce Taper at the upcoming November FOMC interest rate meeting and implement Taper starting in December. Regarding the pace of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that it ends by the middle of next year. If, based on the experience of the previous round, the pace of bond purchases was reduced by $15 billion at each interest rate meeting, then Taper will end by the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we do not rule out the possibility that this round of Taper will proceed at a pace of reducing bond purchases by $15 billion per month and end by the middle of next year. With continued communication from the Federal Reserve, the current Taper is no longer the core factor determining the turning point in US Treasury yields. The turning point in US Treasury yields may depend on the timing of the resolution of the US debt ceiling and may occur around the end of October.</p><p>text</p><p>Interest rate meeting results</p><p>Regarding interest rate tools, at this policy meeting, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, reiterating that it will maintain interest rates at the current level until its dual goals of maximizing employment and price stability are achieved. The Council unanimously voted to maintain the interest rate payable on the reserve balance at 0.15%, effective September 23, 2021. The underlying lending rate remained unchanged at 0.25%, which was in line with market expectations.</p><p>Regarding asset purchases, the Federal Reserve stated that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow soon.\" The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made toward achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals,\" and will increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and purchase CMBS as needed to promote stable market operations and provide accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. Overnight reverse repurchase agreements with a quoted interest rate of 0.05% will be conducted, with a daily trading limit of US$160 billion per party.</p><p>Regarding economic expectations, the Federal Reserve added, \"In recent months, the situation in the sectors most affected by the pandemic has improved, but the increase in cases has slowed the recovery progress.\" The description of inflation has been changed from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated\". With progress in vaccination and strong policy support, economic activity and employment indicators continue to strengthen. In recent months, the industries most affected by the pandemic have improved, but the increase in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. The rise in inflation mainly reflects temporary factors. The evolutionary path of the economy continues to depend on the development of the virus. Progress in vaccination may continue to reduce the economic impact of the public health crisis, but risks to the economic outlook remain.</p><p>Federal Reserve Policy Interest Rate Forecast and Economic Forecast</p><p>At this policy meeting, the Federal Reserve updated its policy interest rate forecasts and economic forecasts. The dot plot of policy interest rate forecasts shows that all policymakers expect Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021. Nine members expect rate hike in 2022, 17 members expect rate hike in 2023, and there may be 6-7 rate hike in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2548ac654d0266737d70a1c610987d9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the US economic outlook, the Federal Reserve expects GDP to grow by 5.9% in 2021 and 7.0% in June this year. Growth is expected to be 3.8% in 2022, and 3.3% in June this year; Growth is expected to be 2.5% in 2023, and 2.4% in June this year; Growth is expected to be 2.0% in 2024; Longer-term growth is expected to be 1.8%, with a 1.8% growth forecast for June this year.</p><p>Regarding the unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve expects it to be 4.8% in 2021 and 4.5% in June of this year; The forecast is 3.8% in 2022, and 3.8% in June this year; The forecast is 3.5% in 2023 and 3.5% in June this year; Growth is expected to be 3.5% in 2024; The longer-term expectation is 4.0%, compared to 4.0% in June this year.</p><p>Regarding inflation, the Federal Reserve expects PCE inflation to be 4.2% in 2021, compared to 3.4% in June of this year. The forecast is 2.2% in 2022, and 2.1% in June this year; The forecast is 2.2% in 2023, and 2.2% in June this year; Growth is expected to be 2.1% in 2024; The longer-term expectation is 2.0%, compared to 2.0% in June this year. The core PCE inflation rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2021, compared to 3.0% in June this year. The forecast is 2.3% in 2022, and 2.1% in June this year; The forecast is 2.2% in 2023, and 2.1% in June this year; It is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337179c001ee4d2f009760e7065ceb7f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Powell's speech</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that day that if the economy continues to perform as expected, tightening measures could easily be taken at the next meeting. The committee discussed progress toward its goals today, and for itself and many FOMC members, substantial progress has been made on employment issues. If progress continues, the tapering of bond purchases may soon be guaranteed, and the tapering may end around the middle of next year.</p><p>Regarding Taper, Powell stated that substantial progress has been made on inflation; For myself and many FOMC members, substantial progress has been made on employment issues; The wording in the statement suggests that the reduction in bond purchases could be met as early as the next meeting; Most FOMC members support the timing and speed of tapering; Asset purchases still have their uses, but now is the time to reduce them. There will be no rate hike until the tapering of the bond-buying program ends. If the timing is right, the Federal Reserve can certainly speed up or slow down the pace of tapering its bond purchases. tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; When assessing maximum employment, it is indeed necessary to look at different demographic indicators.</p><p>Regarding economic expectations, Powell stated that risks remain in the economic outlook; The Delta strain slowed the economic recovery; Continued progress in vaccination will support the economic recovery to a more normal state; Growth is likely to continue at a strong pace for the remainder of the year; Industries affected by the pandemic are recovering slowly; Supply constraints inhibit economic activity.</p><p>Regarding employment, Powell stated: \"Labor demand is very strong, the unemployment rate overestimates the job gap, and care demand and ongoing concerns about the virus are impacting job growth, but this should disappear over time.\" There are still many unused places in the labor market; Many members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe that substantial further progress has been made in terms of employment, arguing that it is \"almost there.\" The Delta strain has affected people's return to work, and people may need more time to return to work; The persistent racial disparity in unemployment is quite disturbing, and eliminating racial disparities is something fiscal policy is more suitable for than the Federal Reserve's tools.</p><p>Regarding inflation, Powell stated that inflation is rising and could last for months before easing. Supply bottlenecks and employment difficulties may once again be greater and more prolonged than expected. Long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the long-term inflation target, and we will certainly respond if persistently high inflation is a concern. Inflation forecasts have risen this year and in the coming years, reflecting that bottlenecks and shortages have not been alleviated in a “meaningful way.”</p><p>Regarding the debt ceiling, Powell stated: It is very important to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner; Failure to do so could cause serious damage to the economy; The United States should not default, and no one should assume that the Federal Reserve can fully protect the market or the economy in the event of a default.</p><p>US recent fundamentals</p><p>Recently, the number of newly confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States has declined, and the epidemic situation in the United States has slowed down marginally. As of September 21, 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States reached 43.24 million, with a cumulative death toll of 700,000. The number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States that day was 130,000, a decrease of 80,000 from the previous day. The slowdown in the spread of the epidemic in the United States may be related to the gradual increase in vaccine penetration, and the number of newly confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States has been declining since September 13.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d108a0b4de776878602633cbfcca1a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of employment, looking at changes in non-farm payrolls, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 235,000 in August, compared with the expected increase of 720,000. The number of new non-farm payrolls hit a new low since January 2021, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.2%, a new low since March 2020. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in August was far lower than the previous value and market expectations. Judging from the trend of new non-farm payrolls, despite the acceleration of vaccination in the United States and the early suspension of unemployment benefits in some states, the number of new non-farm payrolls in June and July increased significantly and continued to exceed market expectations. However, previous non-farm payroll data did not reflect the disruption to the job market caused by the resurgence of the epidemic caused by the new Delta variant strain. In August, the non-farm payroll data was far lower than market expectations due to the disruption of the epidemic.</p><p>The Delta variant has caused a resurgence in the epidemic, and residents' increased concerns about the epidemic are the main reasons why the number of new non-farm payrolls has fallen far short of market expectations. Specifically, the unexpected zero growth in the leisure and hotel industry, the main source of new non-farm payrolls, led to weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, which decreased by approximately 415,000 compared to July. The professional and business services sector maintained growth, recording 74,000 jobs, a decrease of about 5,000 jobs month-on-month, but still became the sector with the largest increase in non-farm payrolls in August, with the warehousing and transportation sector adding 53,200 jobs. The number of government employees decreased by approximately 263,000 month-on-month, changing from an increase of 255,000 in the previous value to a decrease of 8,000 today; The number of new jobs created in education and healthcare services decreased by approximately 53,000 month-on-month. From an industry perspective, the slowdown in employment growth in the U.S. service sector is one of the main factors contributing to the significantly lower overall growth rate. The new wave of the pandemic has had a greater-than-expected impact on consumption and employment. While the new peak of infections caused by the Delta strain has not yet passed, people's spontaneous reduction in going out has continued to impact economic activity, and personal education and return to work plans have been disrupted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde1a3a84487e70f3a8cafc8473e0ca\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"1040\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding inflation, the PPI hit a new high in August, while the CPI growth slowed, with energy being the main CPI growth item. The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 5.3% year-on-year in August, compared to the expected 5.3% increase; The seasonally adjusted core CPI rose 4.0% year-on-year, compared to the expected 4.2% increase. Seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, compared to the expected 0.4% increase; Seasonally adjusted core CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared to the expected 0.3% increase. The PPI rose 8.3% year-on-year, setting a new historical record. The energy sector still saw the highest year-on-year CPI growth in August. The rise in transportation services and used car prices, which had previously driven the continuous rise in CPI, has slowed down. Energy prices rose 25% year-on-year, with gasoline prices up 2.8% month-on-month and 42.7% year-on-year, and food prices up 3.7% year-on-year. Although the year-on-year CPI remained high in August, the rate of increase slowed and market inflation expectations eased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6326a1fede7bd4665cc7d69bff8419\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb465d85d4fd8a7dfb1db447f3ee113\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of consumption, retail data far exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal upward trend. U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in August, far exceeding market expectations of -0.7%, and increased 15.37% year-on-year. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly to 71 in September, compared to a final reading of 70.3 in August, slightly exceeding expectations. The increase in COVID-19 cases due to the spread of the Delta strain is slowing, and the consumer confidence index may continue to rebound. However, compared to spring and pre-pandemic levels, market sentiment remains sluggish due to the impact of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a920b65ab2b007e867991d1226c0d5e\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"846\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of investment, new orders for durable goods in the United States have fluctuated year-on-year recently, recording 10.99% year-on-year in July and 24.17% year-on-year in June, continuing the positive trend since November 2020, reflecting an improvement in the US investment situation, but the marginal growth rate has slowed down. New seasonally adjusted orders for durable goods in the United States, excluding transportation, increased by 15.56% year-on-year in July, compared to 18.50% year-on-year in June. The continued growth in new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods other than transportation may reflect the continued improvement in the investment situation in the United States, but the marginal growth rate has slowed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e191ff9b409bc4d397c7d3ab0eb87d8b\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of economic prosperity, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in August showed a slowdown in recovery, but remained at a relatively high level. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for August was 59.9, a slight increase from 59.5 in July, but still lower than 61.2 in May. The recovery was hampered by the resurgence of the pandemic. In terms of sub-items, prices fluctuated significantly, falling from 85.7 in July to 79.4, while supplier deliveries fell slightly from 72.5 in July to 69.5. The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI for August was 61.7, a significant drop from 64.1 in July. In terms of sub-items, the business activity index was 60.1, down 6.9 percentage points from 67 in the previous month, hitting a six-month low, highlighting that the Delta variant is reducing people's demand for dining out, leisure and travel. The employment sub-item fell slightly from 53.8 to 53.7; The inventory sub-item fell from 49.2 in July to 46.9 in August, the lowest level in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346bea160af4b48bf00689f24f779c95\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>remark</p><p>Taper's boots are basically settled, and Powell takes the \"wine glass\" and doesn't sing \"dove\". This policy meeting statement for the first time explicitly provided information on reducing the scale of bond purchases, stating that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow down soon.\" In his subsequent speeches, Powell also focused more on Taper, while not continuing his usual dovish rhetoric. Instead, he laid the groundwork for Taper, such as the fact that inflation has made substantial progress, many FOMC members said that substantial progress has been made on employment issues, and the wording in the statement suggests that the conditions for reducing the scale of bond purchases may be met as early as the next meeting. Judging from the first mention of tapering bond purchases in the policy meeting statement and Powell's subsequent statements, Taper's shoes are basically settled.</p><p>Dot plots and economic forecasts continue to indicate that rate hike expectations are ahead of schedule, and the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy sooner than the market expects. At this meeting, all policymakers expected Federal Funds rate to remain close to zero by the end of 2021. Nine committee members expected it to be in rate hike in 2022, 17 committee members expected it to be in rate hike in 2023, and there may be 6-7 rate hike in 2024. At the June policy meeting, all policymakers expected Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with seven members expecting rate hike in 2022 and 13 members expecting rate hike in 2023. In its economic forecasts, the Federal Reserve significantly lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year, but raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023. At the same time, it significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year and slightly raised its inflation forecast for 2022, indicating that the Fed is optimistic about long-term economic growth and is quite concerned about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot was just a personal prediction, as he did in June. This indicates that the rate hike shown in the dot plot this time foreshadows a possible policy shift. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expects.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented starting in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion per month until the middle of next year. The turning point in US Treasury yields may depend on the timing of the debt ceiling resolution. Based on the statement from this interest rate meeting and Powell's speech, if employment does not deteriorate more than expected, the Federal Reserve will most likely announce Taper at the upcoming November FOMC interest rate meeting and implement Taper starting in December. Regarding the pace of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that it ends by the middle of next year. If, based on the experience of the previous round, the pace of bond purchases was reduced by $15 billion at each interest rate meeting, then Taper will end by the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we do not rule out the possibility that this round of Taper will proceed at a pace of reducing bond purchases by $15 billion per month and end by the middle of next year. With continued communication from the Federal Reserve, the current Taper is no longer the core factor determining the turning point in US Treasury yields. The turning point in US Treasury yields may depend on the timing of the resolution of the US debt ceiling and may occur around the end of October.</p><p>Market Review</p><p>interest rate bonds</p><p>Liquidity Market Review</p><p>On September 22, 2021, the weighted interbank repurchase rates fluctuated, with overnight, 7-day, 14-day, 21-day and 1-month rates changing by 4.70bps, -1.54bps, 9.10bps, 0.67bps and -1.68bps to 2.15%, 2.23%, 2.46%, 2.60% and 2.60%, respectively. Treasury Bond yields to maturity generally declined, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields falling by -5.87bps, -2.12bps, -0.87bp, and -0.78bp to 2.33%, 2.56%, 2.71%, and 2.86%, respectively. On September 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.40% to 3,628.49, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.57% to 14,277.08, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.91% to 3,164.33.</p><p>The People's Bank of China announced that, in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the quarter, it conducted 60 billion yuan of 7-day and 60 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations on September 22 through interest rate bidding. Today, the People's Bank of China conducted 60 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations and 60 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations in the open market. 30 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations matured, resulting in a net injection of 90 billion yuan of liquidity. In addition, 60 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature from Thursday to Friday, 70 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits will mature on Friday, and 50 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature on Sunday.</p><p>Dynamic monitoring of liquidity</p><p>We track market liquidity and observe the \"investment and receipt\" of liquidity since the beginning of 2017. In terms of incremental growth, we calculate the total injection volume based on the scale of central bank open market operations such as reverse repos, SLF, and MLF, as well as treasury cash fixed deposits; Regarding the reduction, based on the cumulative increase of RMB 1,601.066 billion in M0 in December 2020 compared to December 2016, the cumulative decrease of RMB 811.716 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and the cumulative increase of RMB 986.866 billion in fiscal deposits, we roughly estimate the total daily liquidity reduction through residents' cash withdrawals, the decrease in external reserves, and tax revenue losses, and take into account the maturity of open market operations. At the same time, we monitor the maturity of open market operations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a306434fbba9a99088fd2e91d87d106\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"1136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bonds</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Review</p><p>On September 22, in the convertible bond market, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 415.11 points, up 0.43% daily, the Convertible Bond Index closed at 1735.61 points, up 0.42% daily, and the Convertible Bond Plan Index closed at 1449.60 points, down 0.04% daily. The average convertible bond price was 144.52 yuan, and the average parity was 113.55 yuan. Of the 376 convertible bonds listed for trading, 191 rose, 1 traded sideways, and 181 fell, except for Inco Convertible Bond, Jiuzhou Convertible Bond, and Qingshui Convertible Bond, which were suspended from trading. Among them, Mengdian Convertible Bond (16.03%), Puna Refractories Convertible Bond (14.42%) and Qixiang Convertible 2 (12.23%) led the gains, while Shida Convertible Bond (-12.29%), Hongxin Convertible Bond (-8.20%) and Jiuwu Convertible Bond (-5.86%) led the declines. Of the 370 convertible bonds in underlying shares, 171 rose, 8 traded sideways, and 191 fell. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688388\">Jiayuan Technology</a>（15.84%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300682\">Langxin Technology</a>(13.11%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600863\">Inner Mongolia Huadian</a>(10.08%) led the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002527\">New Times</a>（-9.97%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300657\">Hongxin Electronics</a>(-9.31%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300631\">Kugo High School</a>(-8.04%) led the decline.</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Weekly Views</p><p>Last week, the market initially rose before falling, with the convertible bond index rising before quickly falling back. Structurally, the market style has shown a relatively obvious balance. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, which were heavily impacted in the early stages, have begun to strengthen, while strong cyclical sectors have undergone significant adjustments.</p><p>There has been a lot of discussion about convertible bond valuation in the market recently, and equity valuations were also compressed last week. However, we believe that valuation is not the core influencing factor in the current market. Furthermore, considering the significant differentiation in valuation structure, the reference value of the overall market valuation level has also decreased. Strategically, we continue in the direction of equilibrium, and we are currently in the phase of allocation rebalancing. We believe that increased market volatility is a stage where some sectors are accelerating their investment. The core of maintaining a balance in these sectors is to select individual bonds. The market's alpha is more obvious, and opportunities will not be limited. While maintaining high elasticity, convertible bonds can increase some positions and pay attention to undervalued stocks in underlying shares with a thick price safety cushion.</p><p>Cyclical sectors have seen rapid increases in volatility recently. As the global economy begins to face growth pressure, this will further suppress potential demand for commodities. At the same time, high upstream prices will also have a negative impact on downstream demand. Behind the upstream and downstream competition lies a greater focus on sectors where supply is constrained or demand still has potential to boost, such as crude oil, ultra-high voltage power transmission, and public utilities and environmental protection.</p><p>The consumer sector has recently suffered continuous impacts, with some suspicions of overreaction in sentiment. Even after the impact, this sector is still worth paying attention to. With the decline in economic growth momentum, the consumer sector, which has undergone significant adjustments recently, may once again show its robust characteristics. Although the pandemic has caused some disruption, there are many sectors in consumption that are experiencing continued prosperity, and some stocks have reached new highs. Investors are advised to pay more attention to this sector. At the same time, we can increase our focus on the financial sector.</p><p>The growth manufacturing sector, which has been highly recommended in the past few months, is also a structural hotspot in the current market, and there are still stocks that have continued to hit new highs recently. However, looking ahead, we should place more emphasis on alpha in this direction, and we recommend prioritizing leading stocks for individual bond allocation. The main logical directions are recommended to be examined from two perspectives: domestic substitution and technological upgrading, with a focus on sectors such as semiconductors, auto parts, wind power, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and communications. However, the current focus is on balancing positions and actively responding to fluctuations in market sentiment.</p><p>For high-elasticity portfolios, we recommend focusing on Dongcai Convertible Bond 3, Xinchun Convertible Bond, Sly Convertible Bond, Jiayuan (Jinbo) Convertible Bond, Jincheng (Binhua) Convertible Bond, Aojia Convertible Bond, Enjie Convertible Bond, Jinko Convertible Bond, Biyin Convertible Bond, and Jingda Convertible Bond.</p><p>For a stable and flexible portfolio, we recommend focusing on Hangyin Convertible Bond, Mona (Heilan) Convertible Bond, Wangneng Convertible Bond, Tianhao Convertible Bond, Taihua Convertible Bond, Tianneng (Funeng) Convertible Bond, Wencan Convertible Bond, Runjian Convertible Bond, and Langxin Convertible Bond.</p><p>Risk factors</p><p>Market liquidity fluctuated significantly, macroeconomic growth slowed down as expected, risk-free interest rates fluctuated sharply, and underlying shares stock prices fluctuated more than expected.</p><p>Stock Market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294bd133a63473e9163b00961accb856\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bond market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6a015caa67dc2b92dd786923292bd\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CITIC Securities Mingming Research Team</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1804bd2a58f1fc4b3242b88f2f02977b\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting Commentary: The decision is basically settled, Powell takes the \"wine glass\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-23 12:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Core Points</p><p>At its September policy meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate and bond purchases unchanged, stating that \"if progress is broadly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow soon.\" Economic forecasts and dot plots show that rate hike expectations have been brought forward further. Powell's speech was more hawkish, indicating that the conditions for reducing the scale of bond purchases could be met as early as the next meeting. We believe that, based on the meeting statement and Powell's speech, Taper may be announced in November and implemented starting in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion per month until the middle of next year. The turning point in US Treasury yields may depend on the timing of the debt ceiling resolution.</p><p>Interest rate meeting results: Regarding interest rate tools, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% at this meeting; Regarding asset purchases, the Federal Reserve stated that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow soon,\" and reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals.\" Regarding economic expectations, the Federal Reserve added \"in recent months, the situation in the sectors most affected by the pandemic has improved, but the increase in cases has delayed the recovery progress,\" and changed the description of inflation from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated,\" but it is still temporary.</p><p>Policy interest rate forecasts and economic outlook forecasts: The dot plot of policy interest rate forecasts shows that all policymakers expect Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with 9 members expecting rate hike in 2022 and 17 members expecting rate hike in 2023. Regarding economic outlook forecasts, the Federal Reserve has significantly lowered its economic growth forecast for this year and raised its inflation forecast. GDP growth is expected to be 5.9% in 2021, compared to 7.0% in June this year; The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8% in 2021, compared to 4.5% in June this year; The PCE inflation rate is expected to be 4.2% in 2021, compared to 3.4% in June this year. The core PCE inflation rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2021, compared to 3.0% in June this year.</p><p>Key points of Powell's speech: Substantial progress has been made on inflation; For myself and many FOMC members, substantial progress has been made on employment issues; The wording in the statement suggests that the conditions for reducing the scale of bond purchases may be met as early as the next meeting. If the economy continues to move in line with expectations, tightening measures could easily be implemented at the next meeting, and the tapering of bond purchases could end around the middle of next year. tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; When assessing maximum employment, it is true that different demographic indicators must be looked at, and the persistent racial disparity in unemployment rates is quite disturbing.</p><p>Recent fundamentals in the United States: Regarding the pandemic, the number of newly confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus has declined, and the pandemic is slowing down marginally. In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm payrolls continued to grow, but the growth rate in August was far lower than expected, hitting a new low since January 2021. Residents' increased concerns about the epidemic are the main reason why the number of new non-farm payrolls was far lower than market expectations. Regarding inflation, the PPI hit a new high in August, while the CPI increase slowed but remained high. Energy was the main CPI growth item, and market inflation expectations eased. In terms of consumption, August retail data far exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal upward trend. In terms of investment, the growth rate of new orders for durable goods continued to improve, but it slowed down somewhat. In terms of economic prosperity, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI in August showed a slowdown in economic recovery, but it remained in a relatively high expansion range.</p><p>Taper's boots are basically settled, and Powell takes the \"wine glass\" and doesn't sing \"dove\". This interest rate meeting statement is the first to explicitly provide information on reducing the scale of bond purchases. In his subsequent speeches, Powell also focused more on Taper, and instead of continuing his usual dovish rhetoric, he laid the groundwork for Taper. Judging from the first mention of tapering bond purchases in the policy meeting statement and Powell's subsequent statements, Taper's shoes are basically settled.</p><p>Dot plots and economic forecasts continue to indicate that rate hike expectations are ahead of schedule, and the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy sooner than the market expects. At this meeting, dot plots and economic forecasts indicated that the Federal Reserve is optimistic about long-term economic growth but is more concerned about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot was just a personal prediction, as he did in June. This indicates that the rate hike shown in the dot plot this time foreshadows a possible policy shift. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expects.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented starting in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion per month until the middle of next year. The turning point in US Treasury yields may depend on the timing of the debt ceiling resolution. If employment does not deteriorate more than expected, the Federal Reserve will most likely announce Taper at the upcoming November FOMC interest rate meeting and implement Taper starting in December. Regarding the pace of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that it ends by the middle of next year. If, based on the experience of the previous round, the pace of bond purchases was reduced by $15 billion at each interest rate meeting, then Taper will end by the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we do not rule out the possibility that this round of Taper will proceed at a pace of reducing bond purchases by $15 billion per month and end by the middle of next year. With continued communication from the Federal Reserve, the current Taper is no longer the core factor determining the turning point in US Treasury yields. The turning point in US Treasury yields may depend on the timing of the resolution of the US debt ceiling and may occur around the end of October.</p><p>text</p><p>Interest rate meeting results</p><p>Regarding interest rate tools, at this policy meeting, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, reiterating that it will maintain interest rates at the current level until its dual goals of maximizing employment and price stability are achieved. The Council unanimously voted to maintain the interest rate payable on the reserve balance at 0.15%, effective September 23, 2021. The underlying lending rate remained unchanged at 0.25%, which was in line with market expectations.</p><p>Regarding asset purchases, the Federal Reserve stated that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow soon.\" The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made toward achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals,\" and will increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and purchase CMBS as needed to promote stable market operations and provide accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. Overnight reverse repurchase agreements with a quoted interest rate of 0.05% will be conducted, with a daily trading limit of US$160 billion per party.</p><p>Regarding economic expectations, the Federal Reserve added, \"In recent months, the situation in the sectors most affected by the pandemic has improved, but the increase in cases has slowed the recovery progress.\" The description of inflation has been changed from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated\". With progress in vaccination and strong policy support, economic activity and employment indicators continue to strengthen. In recent months, the industries most affected by the pandemic have improved, but the increase in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. The rise in inflation mainly reflects temporary factors. The evolutionary path of the economy continues to depend on the development of the virus. Progress in vaccination may continue to reduce the economic impact of the public health crisis, but risks to the economic outlook remain.</p><p>Federal Reserve Policy Interest Rate Forecast and Economic Forecast</p><p>At this policy meeting, the Federal Reserve updated its policy interest rate forecasts and economic forecasts. The dot plot of policy interest rate forecasts shows that all policymakers expect Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021. Nine members expect rate hike in 2022, 17 members expect rate hike in 2023, and there may be 6-7 rate hike in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2548ac654d0266737d70a1c610987d9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the US economic outlook, the Federal Reserve expects GDP to grow by 5.9% in 2021 and 7.0% in June this year. Growth is expected to be 3.8% in 2022, and 3.3% in June this year; Growth is expected to be 2.5% in 2023, and 2.4% in June this year; Growth is expected to be 2.0% in 2024; Longer-term growth is expected to be 1.8%, with a 1.8% growth forecast for June this year.</p><p>Regarding the unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve expects it to be 4.8% in 2021 and 4.5% in June of this year; The forecast is 3.8% in 2022, and 3.8% in June this year; The forecast is 3.5% in 2023 and 3.5% in June this year; Growth is expected to be 3.5% in 2024; The longer-term expectation is 4.0%, compared to 4.0% in June this year.</p><p>Regarding inflation, the Federal Reserve expects PCE inflation to be 4.2% in 2021, compared to 3.4% in June of this year. The forecast is 2.2% in 2022, and 2.1% in June this year; The forecast is 2.2% in 2023, and 2.2% in June this year; Growth is expected to be 2.1% in 2024; The longer-term expectation is 2.0%, compared to 2.0% in June this year. The core PCE inflation rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2021, compared to 3.0% in June this year. The forecast is 2.3% in 2022, and 2.1% in June this year; The forecast is 2.2% in 2023, and 2.1% in June this year; It is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337179c001ee4d2f009760e7065ceb7f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Powell's speech</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that day that if the economy continues to perform as expected, tightening measures could easily be taken at the next meeting. The committee discussed progress toward its goals today, and for itself and many FOMC members, substantial progress has been made on employment issues. If progress continues, the tapering of bond purchases may soon be guaranteed, and the tapering may end around the middle of next year.</p><p>Regarding Taper, Powell stated that substantial progress has been made on inflation; For myself and many FOMC members, substantial progress has been made on employment issues; The wording in the statement suggests that the reduction in bond purchases could be met as early as the next meeting; Most FOMC members support the timing and speed of tapering; Asset purchases still have their uses, but now is the time to reduce them. There will be no rate hike until the tapering of the bond-buying program ends. If the timing is right, the Federal Reserve can certainly speed up or slow down the pace of tapering its bond purchases. tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; When assessing maximum employment, it is indeed necessary to look at different demographic indicators.</p><p>Regarding economic expectations, Powell stated that risks remain in the economic outlook; The Delta strain slowed the economic recovery; Continued progress in vaccination will support the economic recovery to a more normal state; Growth is likely to continue at a strong pace for the remainder of the year; Industries affected by the pandemic are recovering slowly; Supply constraints inhibit economic activity.</p><p>Regarding employment, Powell stated: \"Labor demand is very strong, the unemployment rate overestimates the job gap, and care demand and ongoing concerns about the virus are impacting job growth, but this should disappear over time.\" There are still many unused places in the labor market; Many members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe that substantial further progress has been made in terms of employment, arguing that it is \"almost there.\" The Delta strain has affected people's return to work, and people may need more time to return to work; The persistent racial disparity in unemployment is quite disturbing, and eliminating racial disparities is something fiscal policy is more suitable for than the Federal Reserve's tools.</p><p>Regarding inflation, Powell stated that inflation is rising and could last for months before easing. Supply bottlenecks and employment difficulties may once again be greater and more prolonged than expected. Long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the long-term inflation target, and we will certainly respond if persistently high inflation is a concern. Inflation forecasts have risen this year and in the coming years, reflecting that bottlenecks and shortages have not been alleviated in a “meaningful way.”</p><p>Regarding the debt ceiling, Powell stated: It is very important to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner; Failure to do so could cause serious damage to the economy; The United States should not default, and no one should assume that the Federal Reserve can fully protect the market or the economy in the event of a default.</p><p>US recent fundamentals</p><p>Recently, the number of newly confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States has declined, and the epidemic situation in the United States has slowed down marginally. As of September 21, 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States reached 43.24 million, with a cumulative death toll of 700,000. The number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States that day was 130,000, a decrease of 80,000 from the previous day. The slowdown in the spread of the epidemic in the United States may be related to the gradual increase in vaccine penetration, and the number of newly confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States has been declining since September 13.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d108a0b4de776878602633cbfcca1a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of employment, looking at changes in non-farm payrolls, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 235,000 in August, compared with the expected increase of 720,000. The number of new non-farm payrolls hit a new low since January 2021, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.2%, a new low since March 2020. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in August was far lower than the previous value and market expectations. Judging from the trend of new non-farm payrolls, despite the acceleration of vaccination in the United States and the early suspension of unemployment benefits in some states, the number of new non-farm payrolls in June and July increased significantly and continued to exceed market expectations. However, previous non-farm payroll data did not reflect the disruption to the job market caused by the resurgence of the epidemic caused by the new Delta variant strain. In August, the non-farm payroll data was far lower than market expectations due to the disruption of the epidemic.</p><p>The Delta variant has caused a resurgence in the epidemic, and residents' increased concerns about the epidemic are the main reasons why the number of new non-farm payrolls has fallen far short of market expectations. Specifically, the unexpected zero growth in the leisure and hotel industry, the main source of new non-farm payrolls, led to weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, which decreased by approximately 415,000 compared to July. The professional and business services sector maintained growth, recording 74,000 jobs, a decrease of about 5,000 jobs month-on-month, but still became the sector with the largest increase in non-farm payrolls in August, with the warehousing and transportation sector adding 53,200 jobs. The number of government employees decreased by approximately 263,000 month-on-month, changing from an increase of 255,000 in the previous value to a decrease of 8,000 today; The number of new jobs created in education and healthcare services decreased by approximately 53,000 month-on-month. From an industry perspective, the slowdown in employment growth in the U.S. service sector is one of the main factors contributing to the significantly lower overall growth rate. The new wave of the pandemic has had a greater-than-expected impact on consumption and employment. While the new peak of infections caused by the Delta strain has not yet passed, people's spontaneous reduction in going out has continued to impact economic activity, and personal education and return to work plans have been disrupted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde1a3a84487e70f3a8cafc8473e0ca\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"1040\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding inflation, the PPI hit a new high in August, while the CPI growth slowed, with energy being the main CPI growth item. The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 5.3% year-on-year in August, compared to the expected 5.3% increase; The seasonally adjusted core CPI rose 4.0% year-on-year, compared to the expected 4.2% increase. Seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, compared to the expected 0.4% increase; Seasonally adjusted core CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared to the expected 0.3% increase. The PPI rose 8.3% year-on-year, setting a new historical record. The energy sector still saw the highest year-on-year CPI growth in August. The rise in transportation services and used car prices, which had previously driven the continuous rise in CPI, has slowed down. Energy prices rose 25% year-on-year, with gasoline prices up 2.8% month-on-month and 42.7% year-on-year, and food prices up 3.7% year-on-year. Although the year-on-year CPI remained high in August, the rate of increase slowed and market inflation expectations eased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6326a1fede7bd4665cc7d69bff8419\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb465d85d4fd8a7dfb1db447f3ee113\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of consumption, retail data far exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal upward trend. U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in August, far exceeding market expectations of -0.7%, and increased 15.37% year-on-year. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly to 71 in September, compared to a final reading of 70.3 in August, slightly exceeding expectations. The increase in COVID-19 cases due to the spread of the Delta strain is slowing, and the consumer confidence index may continue to rebound. However, compared to spring and pre-pandemic levels, market sentiment remains sluggish due to the impact of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a920b65ab2b007e867991d1226c0d5e\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"846\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of investment, new orders for durable goods in the United States have fluctuated year-on-year recently, recording 10.99% year-on-year in July and 24.17% year-on-year in June, continuing the positive trend since November 2020, reflecting an improvement in the US investment situation, but the marginal growth rate has slowed down. New seasonally adjusted orders for durable goods in the United States, excluding transportation, increased by 15.56% year-on-year in July, compared to 18.50% year-on-year in June. The continued growth in new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods other than transportation may reflect the continued improvement in the investment situation in the United States, but the marginal growth rate has slowed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e191ff9b409bc4d397c7d3ab0eb87d8b\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of economic prosperity, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in August showed a slowdown in recovery, but remained at a relatively high level. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for August was 59.9, a slight increase from 59.5 in July, but still lower than 61.2 in May. The recovery was hampered by the resurgence of the pandemic. In terms of sub-items, prices fluctuated significantly, falling from 85.7 in July to 79.4, while supplier deliveries fell slightly from 72.5 in July to 69.5. The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI for August was 61.7, a significant drop from 64.1 in July. In terms of sub-items, the business activity index was 60.1, down 6.9 percentage points from 67 in the previous month, hitting a six-month low, highlighting that the Delta variant is reducing people's demand for dining out, leisure and travel. The employment sub-item fell slightly from 53.8 to 53.7; The inventory sub-item fell from 49.2 in July to 46.9 in August, the lowest level in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346bea160af4b48bf00689f24f779c95\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>remark</p><p>Taper's boots are basically settled, and Powell takes the \"wine glass\" and doesn't sing \"dove\". This policy meeting statement for the first time explicitly provided information on reducing the scale of bond purchases, stating that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow down soon.\" In his subsequent speeches, Powell also focused more on Taper, while not continuing his usual dovish rhetoric. Instead, he laid the groundwork for Taper, such as the fact that inflation has made substantial progress, many FOMC members said that substantial progress has been made on employment issues, and the wording in the statement suggests that the conditions for reducing the scale of bond purchases may be met as early as the next meeting. Judging from the first mention of tapering bond purchases in the policy meeting statement and Powell's subsequent statements, Taper's shoes are basically settled.</p><p>Dot plots and economic forecasts continue to indicate that rate hike expectations are ahead of schedule, and the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy sooner than the market expects. At this meeting, all policymakers expected Federal Funds rate to remain close to zero by the end of 2021. Nine committee members expected it to be in rate hike in 2022, 17 committee members expected it to be in rate hike in 2023, and there may be 6-7 rate hike in 2024. At the June policy meeting, all policymakers expected Federal Funds rate to remain near zero by the end of 2021, with seven members expecting rate hike in 2022 and 13 members expecting rate hike in 2023. In its economic forecasts, the Federal Reserve significantly lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year, but raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023. At the same time, it significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year and slightly raised its inflation forecast for 2022, indicating that the Fed is optimistic about long-term economic growth and is quite concerned about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot was just a personal prediction, as he did in June. This indicates that the rate hike shown in the dot plot this time foreshadows a possible policy shift. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expects.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented starting in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by $15 billion per month until the middle of next year. The turning point in US Treasury yields may depend on the timing of the debt ceiling resolution. Based on the statement from this interest rate meeting and Powell's speech, if employment does not deteriorate more than expected, the Federal Reserve will most likely announce Taper at the upcoming November FOMC interest rate meeting and implement Taper starting in December. Regarding the pace of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that it ends by the middle of next year. If, based on the experience of the previous round, the pace of bond purchases was reduced by $15 billion at each interest rate meeting, then Taper will end by the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we do not rule out the possibility that this round of Taper will proceed at a pace of reducing bond purchases by $15 billion per month and end by the middle of next year. With continued communication from the Federal Reserve, the current Taper is no longer the core factor determining the turning point in US Treasury yields. The turning point in US Treasury yields may depend on the timing of the resolution of the US debt ceiling and may occur around the end of October.</p><p>Market Review</p><p>interest rate bonds</p><p>Liquidity Market Review</p><p>On September 22, 2021, the weighted interbank repurchase rates fluctuated, with overnight, 7-day, 14-day, 21-day and 1-month rates changing by 4.70bps, -1.54bps, 9.10bps, 0.67bps and -1.68bps to 2.15%, 2.23%, 2.46%, 2.60% and 2.60%, respectively. Treasury Bond yields to maturity generally declined, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields falling by -5.87bps, -2.12bps, -0.87bp, and -0.78bp to 2.33%, 2.56%, 2.71%, and 2.86%, respectively. On September 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.40% to 3,628.49, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.57% to 14,277.08, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.91% to 3,164.33.</p><p>The People's Bank of China announced that, in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the quarter, it conducted 60 billion yuan of 7-day and 60 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations on September 22 through interest rate bidding. Today, the People's Bank of China conducted 60 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations and 60 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations in the open market. 30 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations matured, resulting in a net injection of 90 billion yuan of liquidity. In addition, 60 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature from Thursday to Friday, 70 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits will mature on Friday, and 50 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature on Sunday.</p><p>Dynamic monitoring of liquidity</p><p>We track market liquidity and observe the \"investment and receipt\" of liquidity since the beginning of 2017. In terms of incremental growth, we calculate the total injection volume based on the scale of central bank open market operations such as reverse repos, SLF, and MLF, as well as treasury cash fixed deposits; Regarding the reduction, based on the cumulative increase of RMB 1,601.066 billion in M0 in December 2020 compared to December 2016, the cumulative decrease of RMB 811.716 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and the cumulative increase of RMB 986.866 billion in fiscal deposits, we roughly estimate the total daily liquidity reduction through residents' cash withdrawals, the decrease in external reserves, and tax revenue losses, and take into account the maturity of open market operations. At the same time, we monitor the maturity of open market operations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a306434fbba9a99088fd2e91d87d106\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"1136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bonds</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Review</p><p>On September 22, in the convertible bond market, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 415.11 points, up 0.43% daily, the Convertible Bond Index closed at 1735.61 points, up 0.42% daily, and the Convertible Bond Plan Index closed at 1449.60 points, down 0.04% daily. The average convertible bond price was 144.52 yuan, and the average parity was 113.55 yuan. Of the 376 convertible bonds listed for trading, 191 rose, 1 traded sideways, and 181 fell, except for Inco Convertible Bond, Jiuzhou Convertible Bond, and Qingshui Convertible Bond, which were suspended from trading. Among them, Mengdian Convertible Bond (16.03%), Puna Refractories Convertible Bond (14.42%) and Qixiang Convertible 2 (12.23%) led the gains, while Shida Convertible Bond (-12.29%), Hongxin Convertible Bond (-8.20%) and Jiuwu Convertible Bond (-5.86%) led the declines. Of the 370 convertible bonds in underlying shares, 171 rose, 8 traded sideways, and 191 fell. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688388\">Jiayuan Technology</a>（15.84%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300682\">Langxin Technology</a>(13.11%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600863\">Inner Mongolia Huadian</a>(10.08%) led the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002527\">New Times</a>（-9.97%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300657\">Hongxin Electronics</a>(-9.31%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300631\">Kugo High School</a>(-8.04%) led the decline.</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Weekly Views</p><p>Last week, the market initially rose before falling, with the convertible bond index rising before quickly falling back. Structurally, the market style has shown a relatively obvious balance. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, which were heavily impacted in the early stages, have begun to strengthen, while strong cyclical sectors have undergone significant adjustments.</p><p>There has been a lot of discussion about convertible bond valuation in the market recently, and equity valuations were also compressed last week. However, we believe that valuation is not the core influencing factor in the current market. Furthermore, considering the significant differentiation in valuation structure, the reference value of the overall market valuation level has also decreased. Strategically, we continue in the direction of equilibrium, and we are currently in the phase of allocation rebalancing. We believe that increased market volatility is a stage where some sectors are accelerating their investment. The core of maintaining a balance in these sectors is to select individual bonds. The market's alpha is more obvious, and opportunities will not be limited. While maintaining high elasticity, convertible bonds can increase some positions and pay attention to undervalued stocks in underlying shares with a thick price safety cushion.</p><p>Cyclical sectors have seen rapid increases in volatility recently. As the global economy begins to face growth pressure, this will further suppress potential demand for commodities. At the same time, high upstream prices will also have a negative impact on downstream demand. Behind the upstream and downstream competition lies a greater focus on sectors where supply is constrained or demand still has potential to boost, such as crude oil, ultra-high voltage power transmission, and public utilities and environmental protection.</p><p>The consumer sector has recently suffered continuous impacts, with some suspicions of overreaction in sentiment. Even after the impact, this sector is still worth paying attention to. With the decline in economic growth momentum, the consumer sector, which has undergone significant adjustments recently, may once again show its robust characteristics. Although the pandemic has caused some disruption, there are many sectors in consumption that are experiencing continued prosperity, and some stocks have reached new highs. Investors are advised to pay more attention to this sector. At the same time, we can increase our focus on the financial sector.</p><p>The growth manufacturing sector, which has been highly recommended in the past few months, is also a structural hotspot in the current market, and there are still stocks that have continued to hit new highs recently. However, looking ahead, we should place more emphasis on alpha in this direction, and we recommend prioritizing leading stocks for individual bond allocation. The main logical directions are recommended to be examined from two perspectives: domestic substitution and technological upgrading, with a focus on sectors such as semiconductors, auto parts, wind power, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and communications. However, the current focus is on balancing positions and actively responding to fluctuations in market sentiment.</p><p>For high-elasticity portfolios, we recommend focusing on Dongcai Convertible Bond 3, Xinchun Convertible Bond, Sly Convertible Bond, Jiayuan (Jinbo) Convertible Bond, Jincheng (Binhua) Convertible Bond, Aojia Convertible Bond, Enjie Convertible Bond, Jinko Convertible Bond, Biyin Convertible Bond, and Jingda Convertible Bond.</p><p>For a stable and flexible portfolio, we recommend focusing on Hangyin Convertible Bond, Mona (Heilan) Convertible Bond, Wangneng Convertible Bond, Tianhao Convertible Bond, Taihua Convertible Bond, Tianneng (Funeng) Convertible Bond, Wencan Convertible Bond, Runjian Convertible Bond, and Langxin Convertible Bond.</p><p>Risk factors</p><p>Market liquidity fluctuated significantly, macroeconomic growth slowed down as expected, risk-free interest rates fluctuated sharply, and underlying shares stock prices fluctuated more than expected.</p><p>Stock Market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294bd133a63473e9163b00961accb856\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bond market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6a015caa67dc2b92dd786923292bd\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CITIC Securities Mingming Research Team</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1804bd2a58f1fc4b3242b88f2f02977b\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-23/doc-iktzscyx5801703.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36976bdc18f7089989d74786b5b12ee","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","600030":"中信证券","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","06030":"中信证券","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-23/doc-iktzscyx5801703.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2169665501","content_text":"核心观点\n9月议息会议，美联储维持基准利率和购债规模不变，声明中提及“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。经济预测和点阵图显示加息预期进一步提前。鲍威尔讲话较为鹰派，表示缩减购债规模的条件最早可能在下次会议上得到满足。我们认为，按照本次会议声明和鲍威尔讲话，Taper或将在11月宣布，12月开始实施，节奏可能是每月缩减150亿美元购债，至明年年中结束，美债利率拐点或取决于债务上限解决时间。\n议息会议结果：利率工具方面，在本次议息会议上，美联储继续将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变；资产购买方面，美联储称“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”，并重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS。经济预期方面，美联储增加了“近几个月，受大流行影响最严重的行业情况有所改善但病例增加延缓了复苏进展”，通胀的描述由“上升（has risen）”改为“位于高位（is elevated）”，但仍是暂时的。\n政策利率预测与经济前景预测：政策利率预测的点阵图显示，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有9位委员预计将在2022年加息，17位委员预计将在2023年加息。经济前景预测方面，美联储大幅下调今年经济增长预测，上调通胀预测。预期2021年GDP增长5.9%，今年6月预期7.0%；预期2021年失业率为4.8%，今年6月预期4.5%；预期2021年PCE通胀率为4.2%，今年6月预期3.4%；预期2021年核心PCE通胀率为3.7%，今年6月预期3.0%。\n鲍威尔讲话要点：在通货膨胀方面已经取得了实质性进展；就自己和许多FOMC成员而言，就业问题取得了实质性进展；声明中的措辞意味着，缩减购债规模的条件最早可能在下次会议上得到满足。如果经济走势继续与预期一致，可以很容易地在下次会议上采取紧缩措施，缩减购债规模可能在明年年中左右结束。缩债将是渐进的，预计不需要加快缩债步伐；在评估最大就业时，确实要看不同的人口统计指标，失业率持续的种族差距相当令人不安。\n近期美国基本面情况：疫情方面，新型冠状病毒新增确诊人数回落，疫情边际趋缓和。就业方面，新增非农就业人数继续增长，但8月增幅远低于预期，创2021年1月以来新低，居民对于疫情的担忧加剧是新增非农就业人数远低于市场预期的主要原因。通胀方面，8月PPI再创新高，CPI涨幅驱缓但仍在高位，能源项是CPI主要增长项，市场通胀预期有所缓和。消费方面，8月零售数据大超市场预期，消费者信心呈边际向好趋势。投资方面，耐用品新增订单增速持续改善，但边际有所驱缓。经济景气方面，8月ISM制造业和非制造业PMI显示经济复苏放缓，但仍然处于相对高位的扩张区间。\nTaper靴子基本落地，鲍威尔拿走“酒杯”不唱“鸽”。本次议息会议声明首次明确对缩减购债规模给出信息。鲍威尔在此后的讲话中也对Taper着墨较多，同时没有继续以往一贯的“鸽”派言论，而是更多对Taper进行铺垫。从议息会议声明首次提及缩减购债以及鲍威尔之后的表述来看，Taper的靴子已经基本落地。\n点阵图和经济预测继续显示加息预期提前，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。本次会议上，点阵图和经济预测表明美联储对于长期经济增长乐观，对于通胀较为担忧。同时，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上也并未像6月时一味强调点阵图只是个人预测，表明此次点阵图显示的加息提前预示着政策或将发生转变，在高通胀和金融稳定的压力下，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。\nTaper或将在11月宣布，12月开始实施，节奏可能是每月缩减150亿美元购债，至明年年中结束，美债利率拐点或取决于债务上限解决时间。如果就业不出现超预期恶化，那么美联储大概率会在接下来的11月FOMC议息会议上宣布Taper，并从12月开始实施Taper。关于Taper的节奏，要保证明年年中结束Taper，如果按照上一轮经验，每次议息会议缩减150亿美元购债的节奏，那么Taper将到明年三季度结束，因此我们认为不排除本轮Taper按照每月缩减150亿美元的节奏进行，至明年年中结束。随着美联储沟通持续性的保持，当前Taper已经不是决定美债利率拐点的核心因素，美债利率拐点或取决于美国债务上限的解决时间，可能在10月底附近出现。\n正文\n议息会议结果\n利率工具方面，在本次议息会议上，美联储继续将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变，重申将维持利率在当前水平直至实现其最大就业和物价稳定的双重目标。理事会一致投票决定将准备金余额支付的利率维持在0.15%，自2021年9月23日起生效。基础信贷利率维持在0.25%不变，继续按兵不动，符合市场预期。\n资产购买方面，美联储称“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。美联储重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS，并根据促进平稳的市场运作、提供宽松金融条件的需要来增持国债和MBS、购买CMBS，从而支持信贷流向家庭和企业；进行报价利率为0.05%的隔夜逆回购协议操作，每天每方交易限额为1600亿美元。\n经济预期方面，美联储增加了“近几个月，受大流行影响最严重的行业情况有所改善但病例增加延缓了复苏进展”；通胀的描述由“上升（has risen）”改为“位于高位（is elevated）”。随着疫苗接种取得进展和强有力的政策支持，经济活动和就业指标继续增强。最近几个月，受疫情影响最严重的行业有所改善，但COVID-19病例的增加减缓了其复苏。通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素。经济的演进路径继续取决于病毒的发展进程。疫苗接种方面的进展可能会继续减少公共卫生危机对经济的影响，但经济前景面临的风险仍然存在。\n美联储政策利率预测与经济预测\n本次议息会议美联储更新了政策利率预测与经济预测。政策利率预测的点阵图显示，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有9位委员预计将在2022年加息，17位委员预计将在2023年加息，2024年可能加息6-7次。\n\n美国经济前景预测，经济增长方面，美联储预期2021年GDP增长5.9%，今年6月预期7.0%；预期2022年增长3.8%，今年6月预期3.3%；预期2023年增长2.5%，今年6月预期2.4%；预期2024年增长2.0%；更长周期预计增长1.8%，今年6月预期增长1.8%。\n失业率方面，美联储预期2021年为4.8%，今年6月预期4.5%；预期2022年为3.8%，今年6月预期3.8%；预期2023年为3.5%，今年6月预期3.5%；预期2024年增长3.5%；更长周期预期为4.0%，今年6月预期4.0%。\n通胀方面，美联储预期2021年PCE通胀率为4.2%，今年6月预期3.4%；预期2022年为2.2%，今年6月预期2.1%；预期2023年为2.2%，今年6月预期2.2%；预期2024年增长2.1%；更长周期预期为2.0%，今年6月预期2.0%。预期2021年核心PCE通胀率为3.7%，今年6月预期3.0%；预期2022年为2.3%，今年6月预期2.1%；预期2023年为2.2%，今年6月预期2.1%；预期2024年增长2.1%。\n\n鲍威尔的讲话\n美联储主席鲍威尔在当日新闻发布会上表示：如果经济走势继续与预期一致，可以很容易地在下次会议上采取紧缩措施。委员会今天讨论了实现目标的进展，就自己和许多FOMC成员而言，就业问题取得了实质性进展。如果持续出现进展，缩减购债规模可能很快就会得到保证，缩减购债规模可能在明年年中左右结束。\nTaper方面，鲍威尔表示：在通货膨胀方面已经取得了实质性进展；就自己和许多FOMC成员而言，就业问题取得了实质性进展；声明中的措辞意味着，缩减购债规模最早可能在下次会议上得到满足；大部分FOMC成员支持缩债的时间和速度；资产购买仍有其用途，但现在是缩减资产购买的时候了。在缩减购债计划结束之前，不会出现加息。如果时机合适，美联储当然可以加快或放慢缩减购债的速度。缩债将是渐进的，预计不需要加快缩债步伐；在评估最大就业时，确实要看不同的人口统计指标。\n经济预期方面，鲍威尔表示：经济前景仍然存在风险；Delta毒株减缓了经济复苏；疫苗接种的持续进展将支持经济恢复到更正常的状态；在今年剩下的时间里，增长可能会继续保持强劲的步伐；受疫情影响的行业复苏缓慢；供应限制抑制经济活动。\n就业方面，鲍威尔表示：劳动力需求非常强劲，失业率高估了就业缺口，护理需求和对病毒的持续担忧影响就业增长，但应该会随着时间的推移而消失；劳动力市场仍然有很多闲置的地方；许多联邦公开市场委员会成员认为在就业方面已经取得了实质性的进一步进展，观点是“几乎达到”。Delta毒株影响了人们重返工作岗位，人们可能需要更多的时间才能回到工作岗位；失业率持续的种族差距相当令人不安，消除种族差异是财政政策比美联储的工具更适合的事情。\n通胀方面，鲍威尔表示：通货膨胀正在上升，并且在缓和之前可能会持续数月；供应瓶颈，雇佣困难可能会再次比预期更大，更持久。长期通胀预期指标仍然与长期通胀目标一致，如果持续的高通胀是一个担忧，我们肯定会做出回应。今年和今后几年的通胀预测有所上升，这反映出瓶颈和短缺尚未以“有意义的方式”减轻。\n债务上限方面，鲍威尔表示：及时提高债务上限非常重要；如果不这样做，可能会对经济造成严重损害；美国不应该违约，没有人应该假设美联储能在违约的情况下完全保护市场或经济。\n美国近期基本面\n近日，美国新型冠状病毒新增确诊人数回落，美国疫情情况边际趋缓和。截至2021年9月21日，美国新型冠状病毒累计确诊人数达到4324万人，累计死亡人数70万人，美国新型冠状病毒当日确诊人数为13万人，比上一日减少了8万人。美国疫情扩散的放缓或与疫苗普及率逐渐提高有关，美国新型冠状病毒新增确诊病例从9月13日以来呈下降趋势。\n\n就业方面，从非农就业人数变化来看，美国8月季调后非农就业人口增加23.5万人，预期增加72万人，新增非农就业人数创2021年1月以来新低，同时失业率降至5.2%，为2020年3月以来新低。8月美国新增非农就业人数远低于前值和市场预期，从新增非农就业人数走势来看，尽管随着美国疫苗接种速度的加快，以及在部分州失业救济金提前停发的带动下，6月和7月新增非农就业人数大幅增长，连续高于市场预期。但是此前的非农就业数据并未反映新一轮Delta变异毒株引发的疫情反弹给就业市场带来的扰动，8月非农就业数据在疫情扰动下，远低于市场预期。\nDelta变异毒株造成疫情反弹，居民对于疫情的担忧加剧是新增非农就业人数远低于市场预期的主要原因。具体来看，此前新增非农就业人数的主要来源休闲酒店业意外零增长导致非农就业数据弱于预期，相较7月环比减少约41.5万人。专业和商业服务业维持增加，录得7.4万人，环比减少约0.5万人，但仍然成为了8月新增非农就业人数最多的行业，仓储运输业增加5.32万人。政府部门就业人数环比减少约26.3万人，由前值增加25.5万人变为今值的减少0.8万人；教育和保健服务新增就业人数环比减少约5.3万人。从行业数据上来看，美国服务业就业人数增长放缓，是导致就业人数大幅低于整体增幅的主要因素之一。新一轮疫情对消费及就业活动的冲击都高于预期，在Delta毒株引发的新一轮感染高峰仍未过去之际，民众自发减少外出令经济活动继续受到冲击，个人教育和重返职场的计划也被打乱。\n\n通胀方面，8月PPI再创新高，CPI涨幅驱缓，能源项是CPI主要增长项。8月未季调CPI同比增长5.3%，预期增长5.3%；未季调核心CPI同比增长4.0%，预期增长4.2%。季调后CPI环比增长0.3%，预期增长0.4%；季调后核心CPI环比增长0.1%，预期增长0.3%。PPI同比增长8.3%，再创历史新高。8月CPI同比增速最高的仍是能源项。前期推动CPI持续上涨的交通运输服务以及二手车价格涨势均有所收敛。能源价格同比上涨25%，其中，汽油价格环比增长2.8%，同比增长42.7%，食品价格同比上行3.7%。虽然8月CPI同比仍然维持高位，但涨幅驱缓，市场通胀预期有所缓和。\n\n消费方面，零售数据大超市场预期，消费者信心呈边际向好趋势。美国8月零售数据环比增长0.7%，远超市场预期的-0.7%，同比增长15.37%。美国公布的9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数小幅升至71，8月终值为70.3，略超预期。由于德尔塔毒株的传播而导致的新冠病例增加正在减缓，消费者信心指数或持续反弹。但与春季和疫情前水平相比，在疫情影响下，当前市场情绪仍然低迷。\n\n投资方面，近来美国耐用品新增订单月同比起伏不定，7月同比录得10.99%，6月同比录得24.17%，继续2020年11月以来的正值，反映美国投资状况改善，但边际增速有所驱缓。美国7月季调后耐用品除运输外新增订单同比增加15.56%，6月同比为18.50%。美国耐用品新增订单和除运输外耐用品新增订单的持续增长或反映了美国投资状况的持续改善，但边际增速有所驱缓。\n\n经济景气方面，8月ISM制造业和非制造业PMI显示复苏放缓，但仍然处于相对高位。美国8月ISM制造业PMI为59.9，与7月59.5相比有略微抬升，但比5月份的61.2仍有一定差距，受到疫情反弹影响，复苏进度受阻。分项方面，物价有大幅变动，从7月的85.7下降到79.4，供应商交付由7月的72.5小幅下跌到69.5。美国8月ISM非制造业PMI为61.7，较7月的64.1显著回落。分项方面， 商业活动指数60.1，较上月的67下降6.9个百分点，创下六个月新低，凸显Delta变异毒株正在降低人们对外出就餐、休闲和旅行等的需求；就业分项由53.8小幅回落至53.7；库存分项从7月的49.2下降至8月的46.9，跌至近一年来的最低水平。\n\n点评\nTaper靴子基本落地，鲍威尔拿走“酒杯”不唱“鸽”。本次议息会议声明首次明确对缩减购债规模给出信息，即“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。鲍威尔在此后的讲话中也对Taper着墨较多，同时没有继续以往一贯的“鸽”派言论，而是更多对Taper进行铺垫，例如通胀已经取得实质性进展，许多FOMC成员表示，就业问题取得了实质性进展，声明中的措辞意味着，缩减购债规模的条件最早可能在下次会议上得到满足等。从议息会议声明首次提及缩减购债以及鲍威尔之后的表述来看，Taper的靴子已经基本落地。\n点阵图和经济预测继续显示加息预期提前，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。本次会议上，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有9位委员预计将在2022年加息，17位委员预计将在2023年加息，2024年可能加息6-7次。在6月议息会议时，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有7位委员预计将在2022年加息，13位委员预计将在2023年加息。在经济预测中，美联储大幅下调了今年的GDP增速预测，但上调了2022年和2023年的GDP增速预测，同时大幅上调今年的通胀预测，小幅上调2022年的通胀预测，表明美联储对于长期经济增长乐观，对于通胀较为担忧。同时，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上也并未像6月时一味强调点阵图只是个人预测，表明此次点阵图显示的加息提前预示着政策或将发生转变，在高通胀和金融稳定的压力下，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。\nTaper或将在11月宣布，12月开始实施，节奏可能是每月缩减150亿美元购债，至明年年中结束，美债利率拐点或取决于债务上限解决时间。按照本次议息会议声明和鲍威尔的讲话来看，如果就业不出现超预期恶化，那么美联储大概率会在接下来的11月FOMC议息会议上宣布Taper，并从12月开始实施Taper。关于Taper的节奏，要保证明年年中结束Taper，如果按照上一轮经验，每次议息会议缩减150亿美元购债的节奏，那么Taper将到明年三季度结束，因此我们认为不排除本轮Taper按照每月缩减150亿美元的节奏进行，至明年年中结束。随着美联储沟通持续性的保持，当前Taper已经不是决定美债利率拐点的核心因素，美债利率拐点或取决于美国债务上限的解决时间，可能在10月底附近出现。\n市场回顾\n利率债\n资金面市场回顾\n2021年9月22日，银存间质押式回购加权利率涨跌互现，隔夜、7天、14天、21天和1个月分别变动了4.70bps、-1.54bps、9.10bps、0.67bp和-1.68bps至2.15%、2.23%、2.46%、2.60%和2.60%。国债到期收益率大体下行，1年、3年、5年、10年分别变动-5.87bps、-2.12bps、-0.87bp、-0.78bp至2.33%、2.56%、2.71%、2.86%。9月22日上证综指上涨0.40%至3628.49，深证成指下跌0.57%至14277.08，创业板指下跌0.91%至3164.33。\n央行公告称，为维护季末流动性平稳，9月22日以利率招标方式开展了600亿元7天期和600亿元14天期逆回购操作。今日央行公开市场开展600亿元7天逆回购操作和600亿元14天期逆回购操作，有300亿元逆回购到期，实现流动性净投放900亿元。此外，本周四至周五还有600亿元7天逆回购到期，周五有700亿元国库现金定存到期，周日有500亿元逆回购到期。\n流动性动态监测\n我们对市场流动性情况进行跟踪，观测2017年开年来至今流动性的“投与收”。增量方面，我们根据逆回购、SLF、MLF等央行公开市场操作、国库现金定存等规模计算总投放量；减量方面，我们根据2020年12月对比2016年12月M0累计增加16010.66亿元，外汇占款累计下降8117.16亿元、财政存款累计增加9868.66亿元，粗略估计通过居民取现、外占下降和税收流失的流动性，并考虑公开市场操作到期情况，计算每日流动性减少总量。同时，我们对公开市场操作到期情况进行监控。\n\n可转债\n可转债市场回顾\n9月22日转债市场，中证转债指数收于415.11点，日上涨0.43%，可转债指数收于1735.61点，日上涨0.42%，可转债预案指数收于1449.60点，日下跌0.04%；平均转债价格144.52，平均平价为113.55元。376支上市交易可转债，除英科转债、九洲转债和清水转债停牌，191支上涨，1支横盘，181支下跌。其中蒙电转债（16.03%）、濮耐转债（14.42%）和齐翔转2（12.23%）领涨，时达转债（-12.29%）、弘信转债（-8.20%）和久吾转债（-5.86%）领跌。370支可转债正股，171支上涨，8支横盘，191支下跌。其中嘉元科技（15.84%）、朗新科技（13.11%）和内蒙华电（10.08%）领涨，新时达（-9.97%）、弘信电子（-9.31%）和久吾高科（-8.04%）领跌。\n可转债市场周观点\n上周市场先扬后抑，转债指数冲高后快速回落。结构上看市场风格出现了较为明显的均衡，前期饱受冲击的医药等板块开始走强，而强势周期板块则调整明显。\n最近市场对转债估值问题讨论颇多，上周股性估值也有所压缩，但我们认为估值并不是当前市场的核心左右因素，进一步考虑到估值的结构分化较大，市场的总体估值水平的参考意义也有所下降。策略上我们继续着均衡的方向，当前正是配置再平衡的阶段。我们认为市场波动加大正是部分方向加紧布局的阶段，在方向上做好平衡的核心是精选个券，市场的alpha更为明显，机会并不会受到局限，转债保持高弹性的同时可以增加部分仓位关注价格安全垫较厚的正股低估值标的。\n周期板块是近期波动迅速增大的品种，随着全球经济开始面临增长压力也会进一步抑制商品的潜在需求，同时上游价格的高企也对下游的需求产生负面影响。上下游博弈的背后更加关注供给受限或是需求仍有潜在提振空间的方向，例如原油、特高压、公用事业环保等板块。\n近期泛消费板块遭遇持续的冲击，其中情绪有一定过度反应的嫌疑，冲击过后仍然值得重视这一方向。随着经济增长动能的回落，近期调整颇多的消费板块可能会再次展现出稳健的特性，虽然疫情构成了一定的扰动，但消费中存在不少景气度持续的方向，部分标的也创出了新高，建议投资者对这一方向增加关注。同时我们可以增加对金融板块的关注。\n对于过去数月重点推荐的成长制造方向，也是当前市场结构性热点所在，近期仍旧有持续创出新高的标的。但往后看这一方向应更加看重alpha，我们建议优选龙头个券配置。主要逻辑方向建议从国产替代与技术升级两大角度去考察，重点关注半导体、汽车零部件、风电、光伏、医药工业、通信等板块。但当前的重点是均衡持仓的选择，积极应对市场情绪的波动。\n高弹性组合建议重点关注东财转3、新春转债、斯莱转债、嘉元（金博）转债、金诚（滨化）转债、奥佳转债、恩捷转债、晶科转债、比音转债、精达转债。\n稳健弹性组合建议关注杭银转债、蒙娜（海澜）转债、旺能转债、天壕转债、台华转债、天能（福能）转债、文灿转债、润建转债、朗新转债。\n风险因素\n市场流动性大幅波动，宏观经济增速不如预期，无风险利率大幅波动，正股股价超预期波动。\n股票市场\n\n转债市场\n\n中信证券明明研究团队","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"600030":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"06030":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817471897,"gmtCreate":1630984226919,"gmtModify":1676530434607,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817471897","repostId":"2165338208","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838191116,"gmtCreate":1629379823735,"gmtModify":1676530021256,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why not?","listText":"Why not?","text":"Why not?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838191116","repostId":"1122010518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122010518","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629378862,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122010518?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 21:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will US stocks be intimidated by the Federal Reserve? Was he overreacting?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122010518","media":"英为财情","summary":"美联储会议纪要特别强调了缩债决定是与加息时机无关的。","content":"<p><div>Author: Pan Yiheng. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its July meeting early Thursday morning Beijing time. The Federal Reserve expressed confidence in the U.S. economic recovery at the meeting, despite the Delta variant causing an increase in cases. Officials are also continuing to prepare for the eventual end of the $120 billion monthly purchase program for Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). First and foremost, it's certain that the Federal Reserve explicitly discussed tapering its bond purchases for the first time at its July monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, minutes show that most Fed policymakers believe they will slow down their monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasury bonds later this year if the economic recovery meets expectations...</p><p><a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200466777\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"ywcq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will US stocks be intimidated by the Federal Reserve? Was he overreacting?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill US stocks be intimidated by the Federal Reserve? Was he overreacting?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">英为财情</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 21:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Author: Pan Yiheng. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its July meeting early Thursday morning Beijing time. The Federal Reserve expressed confidence in the U.S. economic recovery at the meeting, despite the Delta variant causing an increase in cases. Officials are also continuing to prepare for the eventual end of the $120 billion monthly purchase program for Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). First and foremost, it's certain that the Federal Reserve explicitly discussed tapering its bond purchases for the first time at its July monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, minutes show that most Fed policymakers believe they will slow down their monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasury bonds later this year if the economic recovery meets expectations...</p><p><a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200466777\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200466777\">英为财情</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8563c55eda230bf12ce63dc5314b95d0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200466777","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122010518","content_text":"作者：潘奕衡\n北京时间周四凌晨，美联储公布7月会议纪要。美联储在这次会议上表示对美国经济复苏仍有信心，尽管Delta变种病毒正导致病例增加。官员们还继续为最终结束每月1,200亿美元的公债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)购买计划做准备。\n首先可以肯定的是，美联储在7月货币政策会议上首次明确讨论了缩减购债，同时纪要显示多数联储决策者认为，若经济复苏符合预期，今年晚些时候将放慢每月购买1,200亿美元公债和抵押支持证券(MBS)的步伐。\n但是需要特别强调的是，美联储决策者们对于何时开启缩减购债规模依然存在分歧，有些官员认为应该很快减少并结束购债，有的人认为美联储应该耐心等待就业市场更充分地恢复。需要特别指出的是，美联储会议纪要特别强调了缩债决定是与加息时机无关的。\n美股反应过度？\n所以，在我们看来这是一份较为鸽派的会议纪要，按道理来讲应该对美股是有一定的利好才对，但是事实正好相反，美国主要股指全线下跌。\n数据显示，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌382.59点，或1.08%，报34,960.69点；美国标准普尔500指数下跌47.81点，或1.07%，报4,400.27点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌130.27点，或0.89%，报14,525.91点。\n道琼斯工业指数、标普500、纳斯达克综合指数5分钟图，来源：Investing.com\n看起来似乎是美股有些反应过度了。相比于很多鹰派美联储官员要求的在9月份宣布缩减资产购买，本次会议纪要已经算是比较鸽派的。我们在上一篇文章“恐怖数据”暗藏杀机，美股达摩克利斯之剑高悬中也有提及，目前美联储缩减购债还有一段距离，加息更是可能要到2022年底甚至2023年，对于美股来讲还是有一定的缓冲期的。\n汇市债市解读相反\n相比股市，外汇市场和国债市场的反应就比较正常。美元指数期货在纪要发布后一度跳水逾30个基点，刷新日内低位至92.94，不过稍后就收回了全部跌幅，并继续上扬，主要还是受避险情绪的支撑。而美国十年期国债收益率在消息公布后一直处于下跌走势。由此可见，这两个市场对会议纪要的解读是鸽派的。\n美元指数期货5分钟图，来源：Investing.com\n总结\n美股真的反应过度了吗？也许是市场对美联储的解读不同，也许是美股真的有点“恐高”了。美股的牛市已经持续了很长一段时间，整个市场都在赚钱，不论你是散户还是投行或者对冲基金，所有人都在赚钱。\n三大股指不断的刷新历史新高，标准普尔500指数有望在今年创下78个收盘新高纪录，这将超过 1995 年创下的 77 个。近期防御类股票和避险资产频频受到市场的追捧，或许投资者们都在小心翼翼的提防着随时可能出现的泡沫破灭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"content":"everything is possible","text":"everything is possible","html":"everything is possible"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114638276,"gmtCreate":1623071558895,"gmtModify":1704195417894,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So run now?","listText":"So run now?","text":"So run now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114638276","repostId":"1126396501","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198131189,"gmtCreate":1620945168741,"gmtModify":1704350753736,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SD2006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bubble ??","listText":"Bubble ??","text":"Bubble ??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198131189","repostId":"1116555518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}