Fattkhong personal page - To The Moon

Fattkhong

Fattkhong

No personal profile

508Follow

6Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-12-18

[惊讶]

2022-10-31

[惊讶]

The market is betting on the Federal Reserve's dovish stance this week, and US stocks are expected to continue their rebound.

2022-10-05

[惊讶]

US stocks have a strong start to the fourth quarter; is this really about to turn from a bear market to a bull market?

2021-08-23

?

A global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is imminent?

2022-12-26

[惊讶]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-11-15

[惊讶]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-10

[惊讶]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-11-13

[惊讶]

Bad news for the market: US Democrats lock in control of the Senate

2022-10-22

[惊讶]

South Korea's real estate market is on the verge of collapse! Will it trigger another Asian financial crisis?

2022-09-24

[惊讶]

A "perfect storm" unfolds: Wall Street can't hold on any longer, and institutions are forced to reduce their positions.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3576924513004067","uuid":"3576924513004067","gmtCreate":1613830489310,"gmtModify":1623666200275,"name":"Fattkhong","pinyin":"fattkhong","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":6,"headSize":508,"tweetSize":592,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.08.14","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"60.34%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.77%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":9957775509,"gmtCreate":1677575634802,"gmtModify":1677575638664,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d02c83f17542b85b2b3599c152b3c680","width":"390","height":"291"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957775509","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954954732,"gmtCreate":1675952412926,"gmtModify":1675952417392,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954954732","repostId":"9954952942","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9954952942,"gmtCreate":1675950729587,"gmtModify":1675950735076,"author":{"id":"3564479083780631","authorId":"3564479083780631","name":"第N次大变革大分流","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ac78897b78c47a3afab38088cf5216c","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564479083780631","idStr":"3564479083780631"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"tsla反彈到230都沒問題，但這並不代表基本面改善，僅僅大量的做空彈止損或者爆倉導致的結果而已，是tsla股票超高貝塔值的表現，反彈的高並不奇怪。tesla面臨的競爭環境是越來越激烈的，而且馬斯克也絲毫沒有將精力轉移到tesla的跡象。後面還是會回探112確認底部。","listText":"tsla反彈到230都沒問題，但這並不代表基本面改善，僅僅大量的做空彈止損或者爆倉導致的結果而已，是tsla股票超高貝塔值的表現，反彈的高並不奇怪。tesla面臨的競爭環境是越來越激烈的，而且馬斯克也絲毫沒有將精力轉移到tesla的跡象。後面還是會回探112確認底部。","text":"tsla反彈到230都沒問題，但這並不代表基本面改善，僅僅大量的做空彈止損或者爆倉導致的結果而已，是tsla股票超高貝塔值的表現，反彈的高並不奇怪。tesla面臨的競爭環境是越來越激烈的，而且馬斯克也絲毫沒有將精力轉移到tesla的跡象。後面還是會回探112確認底部。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954952942","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955390773,"gmtCreate":1675178630593,"gmtModify":1676538982268,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955390773","repostId":"1113254562","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113254562","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675178228,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113254562?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-31 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Analyst: Cook is smart, Apple will not lay off employees on a large scale","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113254562","media":"新浪科技","summary":"苹果将成为科技行业的一个例外。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said today that Apple will not lay off thousands of employees like other large tech companies because CEO Tim Cook is running Apple very well.</p><p>Last week, it was reported that Apple had begun laying off some non-seasonal employees in retail channels outside of Apple Stores. Some Apple retail channel employees working at stores such as Best Buy have already received layoff notices.</p><p>In addition, Apple has laid off 100 contract employees. But so far, Apple has not laid off employees on a large scale like other large tech companies.</p><p>In response, Wedbush analyst Ives said, \"Apple has never been as aggressive in hiring as other tech giants. So you only see them cutting costs on the fringes. They are tacticians and have brains.\"</p><p>Ives added, \"This exactly explains why Cook is a Hall of Fame CEO. I think he can navigate the current situation without needing to lay off employees like other tech companies.\"</p><p>Compared to 2021, Apple's workforce increased by only about 7% in 2022. If Ives' prediction is accurate, it means Apple will become an exception in the technology industry.</p><p>Prior to this, Salesforce had announced a 10% layoff of approximately 8,000 employees, Microsoft had laid off 10,000 employees, Amazon had laid off 18,000 employees, Meta had laid off 10,000 employees, Snap had laid off 20% employees, and Robinhood had laid off 23% employees.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analyst: Cook is smart, Apple will not lay off employees on a large scale</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalyst: Cook is smart, Apple will not lay off employees on a large scale\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-31 23:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said today that Apple will not lay off thousands of employees like other large tech companies because CEO Tim Cook is running Apple very well.</p><p>Last week, it was reported that Apple had begun laying off some non-seasonal employees in retail channels outside of Apple Stores. Some Apple retail channel employees working at stores such as Best Buy have already received layoff notices.</p><p>In addition, Apple has laid off 100 contract employees. But so far, Apple has not laid off employees on a large scale like other large tech companies.</p><p>In response, Wedbush analyst Ives said, \"Apple has never been as aggressive in hiring as other tech giants. So you only see them cutting costs on the fringes. They are tacticians and have brains.\"</p><p>Ives added, \"This exactly explains why Cook is a Hall of Fame CEO. I think he can navigate the current situation without needing to lay off employees like other tech companies.\"</p><p>Compared to 2021, Apple's workforce increased by only about 7% in 2022. If Ives' prediction is accurate, it means Apple will become an exception in the technology industry.</p><p>Prior to this, Salesforce had announced a 10% layoff of approximately 8,000 employees, Microsoft had laid off 10,000 employees, Amazon had laid off 18,000 employees, Meta had laid off 10,000 employees, Snap had laid off 20% employees, and Robinhood had laid off 23% employees.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/it/2023-01-31/doc-imyecayz2657218.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d8ada6a43017d400bcffc8d2d50c562","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/it/2023-01-31/doc-imyecayz2657218.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113254562","content_text":"据报道，投行Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）今日称，苹果公司不会像其他大型科技公司那样裁员数千人，因为CEO蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）把苹果运营得非常好。上周有报道称，苹果已开始在苹果零售店（Apple Store）以外的零售渠道，解雇一些非季节性员工。一些在百思买（Best Buy）等商店工作的苹果零售渠道员工，已经收到了裁员通知。此外，苹果还裁减了100名合同制招聘人员。但到目前为止，苹果还没有像其他大型科技公司那样大规模裁员。对此，投行Wedbush分析师艾夫斯称：“苹果从来没有像其他科技巨头那样，大力度招聘员工。因此，你只会看到他们在边缘地带削减成本。他们是战术家，有头脑。”艾夫斯还补充说：“这正好说明了为什么库克是一位‘名人堂’CEO。我认为，他能够驾驭当前的这种情况，不需要像其他科技公司那样进行裁员。”与2021年相比，苹果2022年的员工数量仅增加了约7%。如果艾夫斯的预测准确，意味着苹果将成为科技行业的一个例外。在此之前，Salesforce已宣布裁减10%约8000人，微软裁员1万人，亚马逊裁员1.8万人，Meta裁员1万人，Snap裁员20%，Robinhood裁员23%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924464888,"gmtCreate":1672313110044,"gmtModify":1676538670551,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924464888","repostId":"1107137579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925207370,"gmtCreate":1672024526390,"gmtModify":1676538623600,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925207370","repostId":"1190601149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926067290,"gmtCreate":1671423327811,"gmtModify":1676538534153,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","text":"[鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926067290","repostId":"1142370958","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142370958","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671421892,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142370958?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-19 11:51","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Argentina won the championship, and these Chinese brands also \"won big\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142370958","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"与阿根廷球迷们一样激动的，还有众多的赞助商。","content":"<p><div>Early this morning (19th) Beijing time, Argentina defeated defending champions France 7-5 (4-2 on penalties), winning the World Cup title again after 36 years. After the match results were announced, many sponsors were just as excited as the Argentine fans. In this World Cup, the Argentine national team became the favorite team of Chinese brands, with at least eight domestic brands signing contracts with them. Argentina players celebrate their victory after the match on December 18. Xinhua News Agency reporter Cao Can photographed several Chinese brands. There's a famous saying in the football world: \"What rolls on the World Cup pitch isn't a football, but gold.\" Regarding...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"mrjjxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Argentina won the championship, and these Chinese brands also \"won big\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nArgentina won the championship, and these Chinese brands also \"won big\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-19 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Early this morning (19th) Beijing time, Argentina defeated defending champions France 7-5 (4-2 on penalties), winning the World Cup title again after 36 years. After the match results were announced, many sponsors were just as excited as the Argentine fans. In this World Cup, the Argentine national team became the favorite team of Chinese brands, with at least eight domestic brands signing contracts with them. Argentina players celebrate their victory after the match on December 18. Xinhua News Agency reporter Cao Can photographed several Chinese brands. There's a famous saying in the football world: \"What rolls on the World Cup pitch isn't a football, but gold.\" Regarding...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9a9ad9eab87374bc503239be6852d30","relate_stocks":{"YPF":"阿根廷YPF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142370958","content_text":"北京时间今天（19日）凌晨，阿根廷队以7:5(点球大战4:2)击败卫冕冠军法国队，时隔36年后再次夺得世界杯冠军。比赛结果出炉后，与阿根廷球迷们一样激动的，还有众多的赞助商。本届世界杯，阿根廷国家队成为了中国品牌最喜欢的球队，至少有八家国内品牌与之签约。12月18日，阿根廷队球员在比赛后庆祝胜利。新华社记者 曹灿 摄多家中国品牌押对宝足坛有一句名言：“世界杯草坪上滚动的不是足球，而是金子。”对于赞助商来说，拥有顶级流量的世界杯也有着顶级的“带货”能力。2014年巴西世界杯德国队夺冠，阿迪达斯作为德国队主要赞助商，当年的足球装备销售额超过了20亿欧元；而在2002年韩日世界杯，韩国现代汽车斥资15亿欧元成为世界杯官方赞助商，同年现代汽车在美国的销量增长高达40％。近年来，中国企业的身影也更多地出现在世界杯球场内外。英国数据公司“环球数据”(GlobalData)的统计显示，中国企业在本届卡塔尔世界杯的赞助额达到14亿美元（约合人民币100亿元），超过了包含可口可乐、麦当劳和百威等品牌在内的美国企业（11亿美元），总赞助额位列全球第一。其中，万达与可口可乐、阿迪达斯、现代起亚、卡塔尔航空、卡塔尔能源、VISA一同，被列为国际足联七大官方合作伙伴之一。Vivo、蒙牛和海信则属于国际足联世界杯赞助商。在球队赞助商方面，阿根廷作为本届世界杯有夺冠希望的球队，赛前就受到了国内多个赞助商的青睐，包括球队及球员个人都成为了赞助目标。据南方都市报统计，包括伊利、盼盼食品、库迪咖啡、万家乐、广汽三菱、网易传媒、万达体育和灵犀娱乐，均是阿根廷队的赞助商或合作商。11月，阿根廷足协营销经理莱安德罗·彼得森表示，在已签约的全球赞助商中，中国企业占10%至15%。这让其他球队相形见绌，签约中国赞助商第二多的是葡萄牙队和西班牙队，分别有3家；德国队和比利时队分别有两家，而上届冠军法国队只有一家中国赞助商。乳企伊利和蒙牛成为“本届世界杯走到最后的赢家”，其中伊利为阿根廷队中国区赞助商，而在决赛场上，两大球星梅西、姆巴佩都是蒙牛代言人。在电视直播画面中，蒙牛“今晚彻底不慌了”的广告语在网络上也引起热议。中国企业的“世界杯梦”虽然足球强国主要集中在欧洲和美洲，但是世界杯的近一半观众都来自亚洲。据国际足联的数据，在2018年俄罗斯世界杯上，亚洲观众人数达到16亿，占全球观众总数的43%。而收视率排名前五的国家中有三个在亚洲，分别为中国、印度和印度尼西亚。中国企业与世界杯的“姻缘”虽然晚，甚至要晚于国足的首次世界杯之旅(2002年韩日世界杯)，但赞助规模的攀升速度却很快。中国对世界杯的赞助，始于2010年的南非世界杯，相信许多中国球迷迄今，依然对当届世界杯球场边线处“中国英利，光伏入户”的广告牌记忆犹新。在2014年的巴西世界杯上，英利也是唯一中资赞助商。据当时国内媒体估算，英利当时在这两届世界杯上的投入接近10亿元人民币。而随着2018年世界杯在俄罗斯举办，更多中国赞助商也纷纷出海。据统计，不少于7家中国公司赞助了2018年的俄罗斯世界杯，估计花费了8.35亿美元——远远超过美国和俄罗斯本土的品牌。在卡塔尔世界杯，中国赞助商的赞助权益也从简单的品牌露出，变为深度参与其中。下届世界杯将于2026年移师北美，中国公司对这项赛事的参与预计还将继续增加。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YPF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928485869,"gmtCreate":1671373480151,"gmtModify":1676538527122,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928485869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928414849,"gmtCreate":1671360501182,"gmtModify":1676538526739,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928414849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921850599,"gmtCreate":1671030699412,"gmtModify":1676538478713,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921850599","repostId":"1168159798","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923298618,"gmtCreate":1670859650934,"gmtModify":1676538447840,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923298618","repostId":"2290203532","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929723467,"gmtCreate":1670734924460,"gmtModify":1676538425838,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929723467","repostId":"1181442501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181442501","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1670636160,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181442501?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 09:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Beyond the 50 basis point rate hike, what are the more important points to watch at next week's Federal Reserve meeting?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181442501","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美联储官员已经释出信号，计划在下周会议上将基准利率提高0.5个百分点，但薪资压力居高不下可能会促使美联储继续加息，将利率提高到比投资者当前预期更高的水平。今年以来美联储的加息速度已经创下20世纪80年","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials have signaled plans to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at next week's meeting, but persistently high wage pressures could prompt the Fed to continue rate hike, raising rates to levels higher than investors currently expect.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike pace this year has reached its highest level since the early 1980s, including four consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate hike in the past four meetings to combat inflation.</p><p><b>A shift to a smaller rate hike of 0.5 percentage points would mark a new phase in policy tightening.</b>Policymakers expect inflationary pressures to ease substantially next year, but rapid wage growth in labor-intensive service sectors or rising inflation could lead more policymakers to support raising the benchmark interest rate above 5% next year, while investors currently expect a peak interest rate of 5%.</p><p>Powell stated last week that because rate hike will take some time to curb economic growth, the impact on inflation will take even longer to materialize. \"If we wait for empirical evidence of a decline in inflation, it will be difficult to avoid excessive tightening. We believe that slowing the pace of tightening at this time is a good way to balance the risks.\"</p><p>Markets rebounded after Powell's remarks last week, which some investors interpreted as a shift from his comments last summer and fall. However, he also emphasized that he has not changed his view that the Federal Reserve may have made a bigger mistake by failing to control inflation.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve rate hike by 0.5 percentage points in December, it will raise the benchmark federal funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%, the highest level since December 2007. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), rose 6% year-over-year in October. The Federal Reserve's goal is for inflation to fall back to 2% over time.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting on the morning of December 13, when officials will see another set of inflation data, and the U.S. Department of Labor will release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI).</b>If there are signs that inflationary pressures remain significant, they may consider consecutive rate hike at their meetings this month and next February, with each rate hike of 0.5 percentage points.</p><p><b>Officials are likely to signal a slightly more positive interest rate outlook in their new quarterly economic forecasts released after the upcoming meeting.</b>This could indicate that policymakers expect to continue rate hike by at least 25 basis points until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled.</p><p><b>Most officials in September expected interest rates to rise to 4.5%-5% next year. According to new forecasts, interest rates may rise to 4.75%-5.25% next year.</b></p><p>“Labor demand is stronger, U.S. domestic demand is stronger than I previously expected, and then underlying inflation has risen slightly, suggesting that the policy path will be slightly higher compared to the situation in September,” John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said last week. This is not a huge change, just a slight increase.</p><p><b>Officials may discuss how much rate hike will be in February next week, and their views depend on their perception of potential price pressures. If inflation slows but the labor market remains tight, they may have greater disagreements on how to proceed.</b></p><p>Some officials may seek another 50 basis point rate hike in February, as they believe there is a greater risk that inflation will not fall sufficiently next year. If there are no signs of a slowdown in hiring, they may worry that inflation may rise again.</p><p>Other officials believe that inflation is mainly due to supply bottlenecks and an overheated real estate market. They believe that as economic activity cools and supply chain problems ease, inflation will decline rapidly and approach 2% next year. These officials favor a 25 basis point rate hike in February next year.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beyond the 50 basis point rate hike, what are the more important points to watch at next week's Federal Reserve meeting?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeyond the 50 basis point rate hike, what are the more important points to watch at next week's Federal Reserve meeting?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-10 09:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials have signaled plans to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at next week's meeting, but persistently high wage pressures could prompt the Fed to continue rate hike, raising rates to levels higher than investors currently expect.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike pace this year has reached its highest level since the early 1980s, including four consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate hike in the past four meetings to combat inflation.</p><p><b>A shift to a smaller rate hike of 0.5 percentage points would mark a new phase in policy tightening.</b>Policymakers expect inflationary pressures to ease substantially next year, but rapid wage growth in labor-intensive service sectors or rising inflation could lead more policymakers to support raising the benchmark interest rate above 5% next year, while investors currently expect a peak interest rate of 5%.</p><p>Powell stated last week that because rate hike will take some time to curb economic growth, the impact on inflation will take even longer to materialize. \"If we wait for empirical evidence of a decline in inflation, it will be difficult to avoid excessive tightening. We believe that slowing the pace of tightening at this time is a good way to balance the risks.\"</p><p>Markets rebounded after Powell's remarks last week, which some investors interpreted as a shift from his comments last summer and fall. However, he also emphasized that he has not changed his view that the Federal Reserve may have made a bigger mistake by failing to control inflation.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve rate hike by 0.5 percentage points in December, it will raise the benchmark federal funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%, the highest level since December 2007. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), rose 6% year-over-year in October. The Federal Reserve's goal is for inflation to fall back to 2% over time.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting on the morning of December 13, when officials will see another set of inflation data, and the U.S. Department of Labor will release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI).</b>If there are signs that inflationary pressures remain significant, they may consider consecutive rate hike at their meetings this month and next February, with each rate hike of 0.5 percentage points.</p><p><b>Officials are likely to signal a slightly more positive interest rate outlook in their new quarterly economic forecasts released after the upcoming meeting.</b>This could indicate that policymakers expect to continue rate hike by at least 25 basis points until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled.</p><p><b>Most officials in September expected interest rates to rise to 4.5%-5% next year. According to new forecasts, interest rates may rise to 4.75%-5.25% next year.</b></p><p>“Labor demand is stronger, U.S. domestic demand is stronger than I previously expected, and then underlying inflation has risen slightly, suggesting that the policy path will be slightly higher compared to the situation in September,” John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said last week. This is not a huge change, just a slight increase.</p><p><b>Officials may discuss how much rate hike will be in February next week, and their views depend on their perception of potential price pressures. If inflation slows but the labor market remains tight, they may have greater disagreements on how to proceed.</b></p><p>Some officials may seek another 50 basis point rate hike in February, as they believe there is a greater risk that inflation will not fall sufficiently next year. If there are no signs of a slowdown in hiring, they may worry that inflation may rise again.</p><p>Other officials believe that inflation is mainly due to supply bottlenecks and an overheated real estate market. They believe that as economic activity cools and supply chain problems ease, inflation will decline rapidly and approach 2% next year. These officials favor a 25 basis point rate hike in February next year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181442501","content_text":"美联储官员已经释出信号，计划在下周会议上将基准利率提高0.5个百分点，但薪资压力居高不下可能会促使美联储继续加息，将利率提高到比投资者当前预期更高的水平。今年以来美联储的加息速度已经创下20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平，包括过去四次会议上连续四次加息0.75个百分点，以应对通货膨胀。转为较小的0.5个百分点的加息将标志着政策紧缩进入一个新阶段。决策者预计明年通胀压力将有实质性缓解，但劳动密集型的服务业薪资增长迅速或通胀率上升，可能导致更多决策者支持明年将基准利率提高到5%以上，而目前投资者预期的利率峰值为5%。鲍威尔上周表示，由于加息需要一段时间才能起到抑制经济增速的作用，对通胀的影响甚至需要更长时间才能显现，“如果要等待通胀回落的实证，就很难避免过度收紧。我们认为，在这个时候放慢紧缩步伐是平衡风险的一个好办法。”鲍威尔上周发表上述言论后，市场出现反弹，一些投资者将其解读为与他去年夏秋发表的言论相比发生了转变。不过他也强调，他没有改变自己的观点，即美联储可能犯的更大的错误是未能控制住通胀。若美联储12月加息0.5个百分点，将使基准的联邦基金目标利率升至4.25%-4.5%，从而将创下2007年12月以来的最高水平。美联储偏好的通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)在10月份同比上升6%。美联储的目标是，随着时间的推移，通胀率回落至2%。美联储将在12月13日上午开始为期两天的货币政策会议，当天官员们将看到另一份通胀数据，美国劳工部将公布11月份消费者价格指数(CPI)。如果有迹象显示通胀压力依然较大，他们可能会考虑在本月和明年2月的会议上连续加息，每次加息0.5个百分点。官员们可能会在即将举行的会议后发布的新季度经济预测中发出略微更积极的利率前景信号。这可能表明，政策制定者预计将继续加息至少25个基点，直到他们看到劳动力市场已经降温的明确迹象。大多数官员在9月份预计明年利率将升至4.5%-5%。而根据新的预测，明年利率可能升至4.75%-5.25%。“劳动力需求更加旺盛，美国内需比我之前预期的更强劲，然后潜在通胀率略有上升，这表明与9月份时的形势相比，政策路径会略高一些，”纽约联储银行行长威廉斯(John Williams)在过去一周表示。这并非一个巨大的变化，只是略高了一点。官员们可能会在下周讨论2月份加息多少，他们的看法取决于他们对潜在价格压力的看法。如果通胀放缓，但劳动力市场仍然紧张，他们可能会在如何进行的问题上存在更大分歧。一些官员可能会寻求在2月份再次加息50个基点，因为他们认为明年通胀下降不够的风险更大。如果没有招聘放缓的迹象，他们可能会担心通胀可能会再次上升。另一些官员认为，通胀主要归因于供应瓶颈和房地产市场过热。他们认为，随着经济活动降温，供应链问题缓解，通胀将迅速下行，并在明年接近2%。这些官员倾向于明年2月份加息25个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929646861,"gmtCreate":1670659256554,"gmtModify":1676538413884,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929646861","repostId":"2290265600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929984034,"gmtCreate":1670586265128,"gmtModify":1676538399187,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929984034","repostId":"2290473739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2290473739","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670552014,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2290473739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-09 10:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The most important data before the Federal Reserve's December rate hike is coming, and the US November CPI will be released next week. What does Wall Street think?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290473739","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞银认为，11月总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，不会出现今年3月和7月那样的次月反弹。巴克莱认为，能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>UBS believes that both the overall and core CPI in November will confirm a slowdown in growth, and there will be no rebound the following month like in March and July this year. Barclays believes that energy prices are driving a slowdown in overall CPI, core services inflation is slowing, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate.</b>The US November CPI is scheduled to be released next Tuesday, December 13. The day after its announcement, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision at its December monetary policy meeting.</p><p>The November CPI thus became the last major inflation data released by the Federal Reserve before making its decision, and it is undoubtedly the most important US economic data to be released next week, potentially influencing the Fed's recent decisions.</p><p>After US CPI growth slowed more than expected in October, will this momentum continue in November? Two Wall Street institutions have released detailed forecasts for the CPI.</p><p><b>UBS: Both headline and core CPI will confirm a slowdown in growth, and the month-on-month growth rate of core inflation will gradually decline in the future.</b></p><p>UBS expects the November CPI to confirm a slowdown in growth. Due to weaker gasoline prices, the overall CPI price growth in November will be slower than in the previous two months. After seasonal adjustment, the overall CPI in November will increase by 0.26% month-on-month, the third lowest month-on-month growth rate since inflation began to surge at the beginning of last year, lower than the 0.39% growth rate in September and the 0.44% growth rate in October.</p><p>UBS expects the CPI to rise 7.3% year-on-year in November, a slowdown of 0.5 percentage points from October's growth rate, and a decline of 1 percentage point within three months, far from the peak level of 9.1% in June.</p><p>Regarding the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, UBS expects it to increase by 0.31% month-on-month in November, roughly the same as the 0.27% growth rate in October. Food prices are expected to grow by 0.88% in November, slightly faster than October's 0.6%.</p><p>UBS expects the core CPI to increase by 6.1% year-on-year in November, down 0.2 percentage points from the October growth rate and down 0.5 percentage points from the peak level of 6.6% in September.</p><p>UBS believes that the November core CPI will confirm the slowdown in growth reflected in the October data. Unlike the rebound in March and July this year after inflation slowed, UBS did not find any high-frequency or leading indicators suggesting a rebound in November compared to October. In other words, only a small portion of the prices that make up core CPI inflation saw stronger growth in November than in October, such as airfares, clothing, and household goods. Used car prices are expected to decline steadily again, and rents will rise strongly, but they will still be far below the peak growth rate in September.</p><p>Looking ahead to the December US CPI to be released in January next year, UBS expects the overall CPI growth rate to slow slightly as gasoline prices continue to fall steadily. The situation with core CPI is complex, as last Friday's non-farm payrolls report showed that strong wage growth may support upward inflation in any core services sector other than rent, while indicators of rent and core goods continue to show a downward trend, such as continued decline in global freight costs, reduced supplier delivery times, and a drop into slowdown territory.</p><p><b>Barclays: Energy prices are driving a slowdown in overall CPI, core services inflation is slowing, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate.</b></p><p>Barclays expects the overall CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year in November; Food inflation is expected to slow slightly to 0.6% month-on-month in November, while energy prices fell 1.7% month-on-month in November, marking the third consecutive month of decline in the past four months, which is the driving force behind the overall CPI slowdown.</p><p>Barclays also expects core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year in November, with core services inflation rising 0.42% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year. Core commodities will remain moderately deflationary, expected to decline by 0.16% month-on-month, a moderation from the 0.38% month-on-month decline in October, which was the third largest in nearly two decades.</p><p>Barclays believes that core services inflation remains strong, but growth is slowing, not decelerating, and it is once again supported by strong housing inflation. Excluding the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, 0.42% would be the highest month-on-month increase in core services inflation since the beginning of 2005.</p><p>Barclays also believes that it is important to pay attention to core services inflation, which excludes housing, in future CPI data, because Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell specifically mentioned excluding core services from housing in his speech last week, saying that it \"may be the most important category for understanding the evolution of future core inflation.\" It also mentioned the non-housing services sector, which is closely related to the labor market, stating that \"because wages constitute the largest category of costs for providing these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category.\"</p><p>Regarding core commodities, Barclays believes that a major driver of the continued deflationary trend in November is the widespread and rapid easing of pressure on global supply chains, with current supply chain pressures only slightly exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels. Moreover, retailers' inventories are now largely rebuilt to levels close to pre-pandemic trends, which should continue to help balance the supply and demand of goods other than energy and food. Barclays also found that multiple sub-categories will drive down core commodities, such as used cars, whose prices have fallen for four consecutive months.</p><p>In terms of medium-term forecasts, Barclays' CPI expectations have changed little compared to before, but will continue to reflect the high uncertainty surrounding the path of domestic inflation in the United States. It predicts that the overall CPI will increase by 6.5% year-on-year in December this year, and the year-on-year growth rate will slow to 2.7% in 2023, that is, next December, and further decrease to 2.3% by December 2024. The overall CPI will increase by 8.0% year-on-year this year, 4.3% next year, and 2.4% in 2024. The overall weakness in inflation next year is partly due to falling energy prices at that time.</p><p>Barclays predicts that the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI will slow to 5.8% in December this year from a peak of 6.7% in September, to 2.9% by December next year, and further to 2.4% by December 2024.</p><p>Barclays projects that core services inflation will increase by 6.9%, 4.2%, and 3.2% year-on-year this year, next year, and 2024, respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of housing inflation is expected to peak in the first half of next year, exceed 6% for most of next year, and fall back to nearly 3% by the end of 2024.</p><p>For core commodities, Barclays expects them to be in a moderate deflationary phase in the first half of next year, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.8%, 0.4% and 0.3% for this year, next year and 2024, respectively. This forecast is based on the assumption that the global supply chain slowdown will continue and eventually return to near-historical normal levels by the end of next year, and that a mild recession will begin in the second quarter of next year, affecting demand for goods.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The most important data before the Federal Reserve's December rate hike is coming, and the US November CPI will be released next week. What does Wall Street think?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe most important data before the Federal Reserve's December rate hike is coming, and the US November CPI will be released next week. What does Wall Street think?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-09 10:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>UBS believes that both the overall and core CPI in November will confirm a slowdown in growth, and there will be no rebound the following month like in March and July this year. Barclays believes that energy prices are driving a slowdown in overall CPI, core services inflation is slowing, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate.</b>The US November CPI is scheduled to be released next Tuesday, December 13. The day after its announcement, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision at its December monetary policy meeting.</p><p>The November CPI thus became the last major inflation data released by the Federal Reserve before making its decision, and it is undoubtedly the most important US economic data to be released next week, potentially influencing the Fed's recent decisions.</p><p>After US CPI growth slowed more than expected in October, will this momentum continue in November? Two Wall Street institutions have released detailed forecasts for the CPI.</p><p><b>UBS: Both headline and core CPI will confirm a slowdown in growth, and the month-on-month growth rate of core inflation will gradually decline in the future.</b></p><p>UBS expects the November CPI to confirm a slowdown in growth. Due to weaker gasoline prices, the overall CPI price growth in November will be slower than in the previous two months. After seasonal adjustment, the overall CPI in November will increase by 0.26% month-on-month, the third lowest month-on-month growth rate since inflation began to surge at the beginning of last year, lower than the 0.39% growth rate in September and the 0.44% growth rate in October.</p><p>UBS expects the CPI to rise 7.3% year-on-year in November, a slowdown of 0.5 percentage points from October's growth rate, and a decline of 1 percentage point within three months, far from the peak level of 9.1% in June.</p><p>Regarding the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, UBS expects it to increase by 0.31% month-on-month in November, roughly the same as the 0.27% growth rate in October. Food prices are expected to grow by 0.88% in November, slightly faster than October's 0.6%.</p><p>UBS expects the core CPI to increase by 6.1% year-on-year in November, down 0.2 percentage points from the October growth rate and down 0.5 percentage points from the peak level of 6.6% in September.</p><p>UBS believes that the November core CPI will confirm the slowdown in growth reflected in the October data. Unlike the rebound in March and July this year after inflation slowed, UBS did not find any high-frequency or leading indicators suggesting a rebound in November compared to October. In other words, only a small portion of the prices that make up core CPI inflation saw stronger growth in November than in October, such as airfares, clothing, and household goods. Used car prices are expected to decline steadily again, and rents will rise strongly, but they will still be far below the peak growth rate in September.</p><p>Looking ahead to the December US CPI to be released in January next year, UBS expects the overall CPI growth rate to slow slightly as gasoline prices continue to fall steadily. The situation with core CPI is complex, as last Friday's non-farm payrolls report showed that strong wage growth may support upward inflation in any core services sector other than rent, while indicators of rent and core goods continue to show a downward trend, such as continued decline in global freight costs, reduced supplier delivery times, and a drop into slowdown territory.</p><p><b>Barclays: Energy prices are driving a slowdown in overall CPI, core services inflation is slowing, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate.</b></p><p>Barclays expects the overall CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year in November; Food inflation is expected to slow slightly to 0.6% month-on-month in November, while energy prices fell 1.7% month-on-month in November, marking the third consecutive month of decline in the past four months, which is the driving force behind the overall CPI slowdown.</p><p>Barclays also expects core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year in November, with core services inflation rising 0.42% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year. Core commodities will remain moderately deflationary, expected to decline by 0.16% month-on-month, a moderation from the 0.38% month-on-month decline in October, which was the third largest in nearly two decades.</p><p>Barclays believes that core services inflation remains strong, but growth is slowing, not decelerating, and it is once again supported by strong housing inflation. Excluding the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, 0.42% would be the highest month-on-month increase in core services inflation since the beginning of 2005.</p><p>Barclays also believes that it is important to pay attention to core services inflation, which excludes housing, in future CPI data, because Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell specifically mentioned excluding core services from housing in his speech last week, saying that it \"may be the most important category for understanding the evolution of future core inflation.\" It also mentioned the non-housing services sector, which is closely related to the labor market, stating that \"because wages constitute the largest category of costs for providing these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category.\"</p><p>Regarding core commodities, Barclays believes that a major driver of the continued deflationary trend in November is the widespread and rapid easing of pressure on global supply chains, with current supply chain pressures only slightly exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels. Moreover, retailers' inventories are now largely rebuilt to levels close to pre-pandemic trends, which should continue to help balance the supply and demand of goods other than energy and food. Barclays also found that multiple sub-categories will drive down core commodities, such as used cars, whose prices have fallen for four consecutive months.</p><p>In terms of medium-term forecasts, Barclays' CPI expectations have changed little compared to before, but will continue to reflect the high uncertainty surrounding the path of domestic inflation in the United States. It predicts that the overall CPI will increase by 6.5% year-on-year in December this year, and the year-on-year growth rate will slow to 2.7% in 2023, that is, next December, and further decrease to 2.3% by December 2024. The overall CPI will increase by 8.0% year-on-year this year, 4.3% next year, and 2.4% in 2024. The overall weakness in inflation next year is partly due to falling energy prices at that time.</p><p>Barclays predicts that the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI will slow to 5.8% in December this year from a peak of 6.7% in September, to 2.9% by December next year, and further to 2.4% by December 2024.</p><p>Barclays projects that core services inflation will increase by 6.9%, 4.2%, and 3.2% year-on-year this year, next year, and 2024, respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of housing inflation is expected to peak in the first half of next year, exceed 6% for most of next year, and fall back to nearly 3% by the end of 2024.</p><p>For core commodities, Barclays expects them to be in a moderate deflationary phase in the first half of next year, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.8%, 0.4% and 0.3% for this year, next year and 2024, respectively. This forecast is based on the assumption that the global supply chain slowdown will continue and eventually return to near-historical normal levels by the end of next year, and that a mild recession will begin in the second quarter of next year, affecting demand for goods.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677048\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e840b1c7925bc414d98748d69475fa0","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4581":"高盛持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677048","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290473739","content_text":"瑞银认为，11月总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，不会出现今年3月和7月那样的次月反弹。巴克莱认为，能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩。美国11月CPI 定于12月13日下周二公布。它公布的次日，美联储就将宣布12月货币政策会议的决议。11月CPI由此成为美联储制定决策前最后发布的重磅通胀数据，也无疑是下周将公布的最重要美国经济数据，是可能左右联储近期决策的重磅数据。在10月美国CPI增长超预期放缓后，11月还会延续这样的势头吗？两家华尔街机构公布了有关CPI的详细前瞻。瑞银：总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，未来核心通胀月环比增速将逐步下降瑞银预计，11月CPI将确认增长放缓。由于汽油价格更为疲软，11月总体CPI价格的增长将比前两个月更慢，季节性调整后，11月总体CPI将环比增长0.26%，为去年初通胀开始高涨以来第三低的月环比增速，低于9月的增速0.39%和10月的0.44%。瑞银预计，11月CPI同比增长7.3%，较10月的增速放缓0.5个百分点，三个月内下降1个百分点，远离6月的巅峰水平9.1%。对于剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI，瑞银预计，11月将环比增长0.31%，大致和10月增速0.27%一致。11月食品的价格增速料将为0.88%，略快于10月的0.6%。瑞银预计，11月核心CPI将同比增长6.1%，较10月增速回落0.2个百分点，较9月的巅峰水平6.6%回落0.5个百分点。瑞银认为，11月核心CPI将确认10月数据体现的增长放缓。不同于今年3月和7月通胀放缓后次月就反弹的情况，瑞银并未发现高频和先行的指标暗示11月会较10月有所回升。也就是说，核心CPI通胀的组成价格之中，只有很少一部分11月的增长比10月强劲，比如机票、服装、家用物品。二手车价格料将再次稳步下滑，房租上涨将很强劲，但仍远低于9月的巅峰增速。展望明年1月公布的12月美国CPI，瑞银预计总体CPI的增速将小幅放缓，因为汽油价格将继续稳步下跌。核心CPI的情况复杂，因为上周五的非农就业报告显示，薪资的强劲增长可能支持任何房租以外的核心服务类通胀上行，而房租与核心商品的指标仍体现下行趋势，比如全球货运成本继续下降、供应商配送时间减少、跌入减速区间。巴克莱：能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩巴克莱预计，11月总体CPI将环比增长0.2%，同比增长7.2%；11月食品通胀的环比增速将略微放缓至0.6%，11月能源价格环比下降1.7%，最近四个月内第三个月下跌，是总体CPI放缓的推手。巴克莱还预计，11月核心CPI环比增长0.3%，同比增长6.0%，其中核心服务通胀环比增长0.42%、同比增长6.8%；核心商品仍将是温和通缩，料将环比下降0.16%，较10月创近二十年来第三大通缩幅度的环比降幅0.38%缓和。巴克莱认为，核心服务通胀仍强劲，只是增长在放缓，并不是增长缓慢，它再次得到住房通胀强劲的支持。不计新冠疫情初期在内，0.42%将是2005年初以来核心服务通胀的最高月环比增速。巴克莱还认为，要留意未来CPI数据中剔除住房的核心服务通胀，因为美联储主席鲍威尔上周在讲话中特别提到，剔除住房的核心服务，称它“可能是理解未来核心通胀演变的最重要类别”。它还提到了和劳动力市场密切相关的住房以外服务业，称“因为薪资组成了提供这些服务的最大一类成本，劳动力市场掌握着理解该类别通胀的钥匙”。核心商品方面，巴克莱认为，11月将继续通缩的趋势来自一大推手，即全球供应链的压力普遍且迅速地缓和，目前的供应链压力只是略为超过新冠疫情前水平。而且，零售商的库存目前大部分重建，处于接近疫情前趋势的水平，这应该会继续帮助平衡能源和食品以外的商品供需。巴克莱还发现，多个分项类别将推动核心商品下行，比如价格已连跌四个月的二手车。中期预测方面，巴克莱的CPI预期相比之前变化很小，但会继续体现美国国内通胀道路的不确定性很高。其预计，今年12月的总体CPI将同比增长6.5%，2023年、即明年12月的同比增速将放缓至2.7%，到2024年12月进一步降至2.3%。总体CPI今年同比增长8.0%、明年增4.3%，2024年增2.4%。明年的总体通胀疲软部分源于届时能源价格下跌。巴克莱预计，今年12月核心CPI同比增速从9月的巅峰6.7%放缓至5.8%，到明年12月，同比增速降至2.9%，到2024年12月，进一步放缓至2.4%。巴克莱预计，今年、明年和2024年的核心服务通胀分别同比增长6.9%、4.2%和3.2%，其中住房通胀的同比增速料将在明年上半年达到顶峰，明年多数时间超过6%，到2024年末，回落到接近3%。对于核心商品，巴克莱预计明年上半年都会处于温和通缩阶段，今年、明年和2024年的核心商品同比增速将分别为2.8%、0.4%和0.3%。这一预测是基于假定全球供应链放缓将持续，并最终在明年底以前回到接近历史正常水平，而且明年二季度将开始出现温和衰退，影响商品的需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".DJI":1,"OEX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SH":0.6,"CPI":1,"DJX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPY":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920273021,"gmtCreate":1670511632963,"gmtModify":1676538383175,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920273021","repostId":"2289467753","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920041084,"gmtCreate":1670404223548,"gmtModify":1676538361133,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920041084","repostId":"2289040001","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967908273,"gmtCreate":1670243347292,"gmtModify":1676538327650,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967908273","repostId":"1144407861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144407861","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670242416,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144407861?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 20:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Leapmotor: Included in the Stock Connect program, effective December 5th.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144407861","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月5日，零跑汽车：根据上海证券交易所及深圳证券交易所刊发的公告，本公司股份获纳入为沪港通计划和深港通计划相应股票名单的合资格股份，均自2022年12月5日起生效。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>December 5th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09863\">Leapmotor</a>According to the announcements published by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the Company's shares were included in the eligible shares for the corresponding share lists of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme, both with effect from December 5, 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b83d3157665237cd5c02c891375d67a9\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"747\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Leapmotor: Included in the Stock Connect program, effective December 5th.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLeapmotor: Included in the Stock Connect program, effective December 5th.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-05 20:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>December 5th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09863\">Leapmotor</a>According to the announcements published by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the Company's shares were included in the eligible shares for the corresponding share lists of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme, both with effect from December 5, 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b83d3157665237cd5c02c891375d67a9\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"747\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0800d0811a4a57cf8d539fbb32126521","relate_stocks":{"09863":"零跑汽车","BK1119":"汽车制造商"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144407861","content_text":"12月5日，零跑汽车：根据上海证券交易所及深圳证券交易所刊发的公告，本公司股份获纳入为沪港通计划和深港通计划相应股票名单的合资格股份，均自2022年12月5日起生效。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09863":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964642916,"gmtCreate":1670142108336,"gmtModify":1676538309869,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964642916","repostId":"1117962450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117962450","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670028929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117962450?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 08:55","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | A dramatic intraday reversal following the employment report! The Chinese concept index surged more than 20% this week.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117962450","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①非农数据强化联储加息预期，道指惊险转涨；②中概指数本周大涨逾20%。海外行情1、非农数据强化联储加息预期美股收盘涨跌不一股周五收盘涨跌不一，三大股指本周均录得涨幅。美国11月非农就业人数与薪资","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Non-farm payroll data strengthens Fed rate hike expectations, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to narrowly turn positive; ② The Chinese concept index surged by more than 20% this week. Overseas Market</p><p>1. Non-farm payroll data strengthens Fed rate hike expectations; US stocks closed mixed.</p><p>Stocks closed mixed on Friday, with all three major indexes recording gains this week. U.S. non-farm payrolls and wage growth both exceeded expectations in November, indicating high inflationary pressures in the future. The Federal Reserve still needs to continue to curb inflation and may accumulate another 100 basis points of rate hike in the future.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34.87 points, or 0.10%, to 34,429.88. The Nasdaq fell 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11,461.50. The S&P 500 fell 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4,071.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24% this week, the S&P 500 rose 1.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.09%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Bilibili rose over 33%, up over 16%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose on Friday, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rising 5.39%. The index rose more than 22% this week, marking its biggest weekly gain since mid-March.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">Shangde Institution</a>It rose over 50%, and Zhihu rose over 33%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Qutoutiao</a>Up more than 30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up more than 16%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">Best Inc.</a>Up more than 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>Educate together<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Grocery Store</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Fog Core Technology<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Up more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">graffiti intelligence</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAT\">Atour</a>group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>Leju rose more than 11%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Electric</a>It rose by more than 10%.</p><p>3. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.5% on Friday, up 4.9% this week.</p><p>Major European indices closed mixed on Thursday, with Germany's DAX 30 index rising 0.65%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.19%, the French CAC40 rose 0.23%, and the European Stoxx 50 rose 0.50%.</p><p>4. Most European stocks closed lower, with the German DAX 30 bucking the trend and rising 0.27%.</p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.27%, while the UK...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It fell 0.01%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.17%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.17%, Spain's IBEX35 index fell 0.30%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 0.30%.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.24, or 1.5%, to settle at $79.98 a barrel. Based on the most active contracts, WTI crude oil futures rose 4.9% this week.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.3% on Friday, up 3.2% for the week.</p><p>Gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.60, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,809.60 an ounce.</p><p>Based on the most active contracts, gold futures prices rose 3.2% cumulatively this week.</p><p>Macro News</p><p>1. The outstanding balance of U.S. federal government debt has reached $31.41 trillion, exceeding the ceiling.</p><p>According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department on December 2 local time, the outstanding balance of U.S. federal government debt has reached $31.41 trillion.</p><p>It is reported that US Treasury Bond exceeded $30 trillion in February 2022 and $31 trillion in October 2022. The current U.S. debt ceiling is $31.4 trillion, and the current U.S. Treasury Bond have exceeded the ceiling, indicating a debt default.</p><p>2. The US labor force participation rate has declined again, with more and more people leaving the workforce.</p><p>The U.S. labor force participation rate fell for the third consecutive month in November, highlighting the challenges businesses face in finding enough employees.</p><p>According to government data released Friday, the percentage of Americans who are employed or actively seeking work fell to 62.1%. In August, that percentage rose to 62.4%, matching the post-pandemic high set in March, but still far below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>3. US President Biden signs a bill to avoid a nationwide railroad workers' strike.</p><p>On December 2 local time, US President Biden signed a bill to avoid a nationwide railroad strike in order to resolve labor disputes among railroad workers.</p><p>It is reported that the House of Representatives passed the bill on November 30 local time, and the Senate also voted to pass it on December 1 and submitted it to Biden. Without the bill, railroad workers across the United States could strike as early as December 9, which would lead to a series of problems including shortages of goods, soaring prices, and factory shutdowns.</p><p>4. Poland agreed to a maximum EU price cap of $60 per barrel for seaborne oil shipped to Russia.</p><p>According to German media reports on December 2 local time, Poland has agreed to a maximum EU price cap of $60 per barrel for seaborne oil shipped to Russia. The final decision will take effect after the official announcement.</p><p>5. German Chancellor discusses measures to address high inflation and high energy prices with business representatives.</p><p>On December 2 local time, German Chancellor Scholz exchanged views with CEOs of several large German companies at the Chancellery on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the German economy.</p><p>The meeting focused on measures to mitigate the impact of high inflation, such as providing inflation compensation, where companies can pay employees a subsidy of up to 3,000 euros, which is tax-free and compensates for employees' actual income losses.</p><p>Participants also discussed the impact of high energy prices.</p><p>6. With the arrival of a cold winter and insufficient wind power, both electricity and gas prices in Europe have risen.</p><p>As winter approaches, wind power generation in Europe has declined sharply, pushing up electricity and natural gas prices and highlighting the fragility of the continent's energy system.</p><p>Currently, European consumers and businesses are particularly sensitive to soaring energy bills. Energy traders keep a close eye on weather conditions, as they can significantly impact the supply and demand of natural gas and cause prices to fluctuate wildly.</p><p>European natural gas prices have surged this week, rising by more than 13% on Thursday to their highest level since October 13. After a relatively mild November, temperatures are dropping across Europe this month.</p><p>7. OPEC crude oil production fell to 28.79 million barrels per day in November, the largest drop in nearly two years.</p><p>OPEC crude oil production saw its biggest drop since 2020 in November to meet the latest production cut agreement reached by OPEC+. The survey shows that all OPEC member countries cut production by slightly more than 1 million barrels per day that month, bringing total output down to 28.79 million barrels. Saudi Arabia cut production by 470,000 barrels per day to 10.44 million barrels per day, and other Gulf oil-producing countries followed suit with production cuts. OPCE+ will hold its next regular meeting on December 4 and is expected to maintain existing production capacity. Previously, US President Biden had urged OPEC to increase crude oil supply.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288971479\" target=\"_blank\">Following Tesla and BMW, Volkswagen will produce electric vehicles in China for export to Europe</a></p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen announced that its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will produce its first electric SUV, the Tavascan, at a joint venture plant in Anhui. Volkswagen's move is due to limited production capacity in the German domestic market. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that by 2025, sales of Chinese-made cars in Europe could reach 800,000 units, most of which will be pure electric vehicles.</p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen issued a statement saying that its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will produce its first electric SUV, the Tavascan, at a joint venture plant in Anhui.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288967004\" target=\"_blank\">The talent war is a thing of the past. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and others are reportedly planning to drastically cut bonuses in their investment banking departments.</a></p><p>Across Wall Street, pessimistic expectations about bankers' bonuses are rapidly coming true, with shrinking investment banking activity subsiding the talent war and companies regaining the upper hand in setting salaries.</p><p>Sources revealed that JPMorgan Chase,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Citigroup is considering cutting the bonus pool for investment bankers by up to 30%. Some companies plan to give no bonuses at all to underperforming employees. Sources say the proposals are still under discussion and could be adjusted in the coming weeks.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288296703\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer invests €2.4 billion in Europe to expand production in preparation for declining revenue from COVID-19 products.</a></p><p>On Friday local time, Pfizer announced it would invest €1.2 billion to expand its factory capacity in the Pierce region of Belgium. The company had just announced on Thursday that it would invest a similar amount of money to expand production at its Dublin plant in Ireland.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1120601796\" target=\"_blank\">Two months ruined Bridgewater's strong performance in the first three quarters, resulting in a loss of more than half of its annual return.</a></p><p>Hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates was expected to achieve its best annual performance in more than a decade, but the fourth quarter was a major setback, with most of the returns achieved in the first three quarters being wiped out.</p><p>According to sources familiar with the matter, the Pure Alpha fund fell 13.2% in the fourth quarter ending November 25, bringing its year-to-date gains to 6%. The fund surged 22% in the first three quarters, poised to surpass 2010's 27% and record its biggest annual gain in twelve years. This fund product is a low-leverage version of Bridgewater Associates' Pure Alpha II.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | A dramatic intraday reversal following the employment report! The Chinese concept index surged more than 20% this week.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | A dramatic intraday reversal following the employment report! The Chinese concept index surged more than 20% this week.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-03 08:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Non-farm payroll data strengthens Fed rate hike expectations, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to narrowly turn positive; ② The Chinese concept index surged by more than 20% this week. Overseas Market</p><p>1. Non-farm payroll data strengthens Fed rate hike expectations; US stocks closed mixed.</p><p>Stocks closed mixed on Friday, with all three major indexes recording gains this week. U.S. non-farm payrolls and wage growth both exceeded expectations in November, indicating high inflationary pressures in the future. The Federal Reserve still needs to continue to curb inflation and may accumulate another 100 basis points of rate hike in the future.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34.87 points, or 0.10%, to 34,429.88. The Nasdaq fell 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11,461.50. The S&P 500 fell 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4,071.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24% this week, the S&P 500 rose 1.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.09%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Bilibili rose over 33%, up over 16%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose on Friday, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rising 5.39%. The index rose more than 22% this week, marking its biggest weekly gain since mid-March.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">Shangde Institution</a>It rose over 50%, and Zhihu rose over 33%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Qutoutiao</a>Up more than 30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up more than 16%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">Best Inc.</a>Up more than 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>Educate together<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Grocery Store</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Fog Core Technology<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Up more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">graffiti intelligence</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAT\">Atour</a>group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>Leju rose more than 11%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Electric</a>It rose by more than 10%.</p><p>3. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.5% on Friday, up 4.9% this week.</p><p>Major European indices closed mixed on Thursday, with Germany's DAX 30 index rising 0.65%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.19%, the French CAC40 rose 0.23%, and the European Stoxx 50 rose 0.50%.</p><p>4. Most European stocks closed lower, with the German DAX 30 bucking the trend and rising 0.27%.</p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.27%, while the UK...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It fell 0.01%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.17%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.17%, Spain's IBEX35 index fell 0.30%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 0.30%.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.24, or 1.5%, to settle at $79.98 a barrel. Based on the most active contracts, WTI crude oil futures rose 4.9% this week.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.3% on Friday, up 3.2% for the week.</p><p>Gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.60, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,809.60 an ounce.</p><p>Based on the most active contracts, gold futures prices rose 3.2% cumulatively this week.</p><p>Macro News</p><p>1. The outstanding balance of U.S. federal government debt has reached $31.41 trillion, exceeding the ceiling.</p><p>According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department on December 2 local time, the outstanding balance of U.S. federal government debt has reached $31.41 trillion.</p><p>It is reported that US Treasury Bond exceeded $30 trillion in February 2022 and $31 trillion in October 2022. The current U.S. debt ceiling is $31.4 trillion, and the current U.S. Treasury Bond have exceeded the ceiling, indicating a debt default.</p><p>2. The US labor force participation rate has declined again, with more and more people leaving the workforce.</p><p>The U.S. labor force participation rate fell for the third consecutive month in November, highlighting the challenges businesses face in finding enough employees.</p><p>According to government data released Friday, the percentage of Americans who are employed or actively seeking work fell to 62.1%. In August, that percentage rose to 62.4%, matching the post-pandemic high set in March, but still far below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>3. US President Biden signs a bill to avoid a nationwide railroad workers' strike.</p><p>On December 2 local time, US President Biden signed a bill to avoid a nationwide railroad strike in order to resolve labor disputes among railroad workers.</p><p>It is reported that the House of Representatives passed the bill on November 30 local time, and the Senate also voted to pass it on December 1 and submitted it to Biden. Without the bill, railroad workers across the United States could strike as early as December 9, which would lead to a series of problems including shortages of goods, soaring prices, and factory shutdowns.</p><p>4. Poland agreed to a maximum EU price cap of $60 per barrel for seaborne oil shipped to Russia.</p><p>According to German media reports on December 2 local time, Poland has agreed to a maximum EU price cap of $60 per barrel for seaborne oil shipped to Russia. The final decision will take effect after the official announcement.</p><p>5. German Chancellor discusses measures to address high inflation and high energy prices with business representatives.</p><p>On December 2 local time, German Chancellor Scholz exchanged views with CEOs of several large German companies at the Chancellery on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the German economy.</p><p>The meeting focused on measures to mitigate the impact of high inflation, such as providing inflation compensation, where companies can pay employees a subsidy of up to 3,000 euros, which is tax-free and compensates for employees' actual income losses.</p><p>Participants also discussed the impact of high energy prices.</p><p>6. With the arrival of a cold winter and insufficient wind power, both electricity and gas prices in Europe have risen.</p><p>As winter approaches, wind power generation in Europe has declined sharply, pushing up electricity and natural gas prices and highlighting the fragility of the continent's energy system.</p><p>Currently, European consumers and businesses are particularly sensitive to soaring energy bills. Energy traders keep a close eye on weather conditions, as they can significantly impact the supply and demand of natural gas and cause prices to fluctuate wildly.</p><p>European natural gas prices have surged this week, rising by more than 13% on Thursday to their highest level since October 13. After a relatively mild November, temperatures are dropping across Europe this month.</p><p>7. OPEC crude oil production fell to 28.79 million barrels per day in November, the largest drop in nearly two years.</p><p>OPEC crude oil production saw its biggest drop since 2020 in November to meet the latest production cut agreement reached by OPEC+. The survey shows that all OPEC member countries cut production by slightly more than 1 million barrels per day that month, bringing total output down to 28.79 million barrels. Saudi Arabia cut production by 470,000 barrels per day to 10.44 million barrels per day, and other Gulf oil-producing countries followed suit with production cuts. OPCE+ will hold its next regular meeting on December 4 and is expected to maintain existing production capacity. Previously, US President Biden had urged OPEC to increase crude oil supply.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288971479\" target=\"_blank\">Following Tesla and BMW, Volkswagen will produce electric vehicles in China for export to Europe</a></p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen announced that its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will produce its first electric SUV, the Tavascan, at a joint venture plant in Anhui. Volkswagen's move is due to limited production capacity in the German domestic market. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that by 2025, sales of Chinese-made cars in Europe could reach 800,000 units, most of which will be pure electric vehicles.</p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen issued a statement saying that its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will produce its first electric SUV, the Tavascan, at a joint venture plant in Anhui.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288967004\" target=\"_blank\">The talent war is a thing of the past. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and others are reportedly planning to drastically cut bonuses in their investment banking departments.</a></p><p>Across Wall Street, pessimistic expectations about bankers' bonuses are rapidly coming true, with shrinking investment banking activity subsiding the talent war and companies regaining the upper hand in setting salaries.</p><p>Sources revealed that JPMorgan Chase,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Citigroup is considering cutting the bonus pool for investment bankers by up to 30%. Some companies plan to give no bonuses at all to underperforming employees. Sources say the proposals are still under discussion and could be adjusted in the coming weeks.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288296703\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer invests €2.4 billion in Europe to expand production in preparation for declining revenue from COVID-19 products.</a></p><p>On Friday local time, Pfizer announced it would invest €1.2 billion to expand its factory capacity in the Pierce region of Belgium. The company had just announced on Thursday that it would invest a similar amount of money to expand production at its Dublin plant in Ireland.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1120601796\" target=\"_blank\">Two months ruined Bridgewater's strong performance in the first three quarters, resulting in a loss of more than half of its annual return.</a></p><p>Hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates was expected to achieve its best annual performance in more than a decade, but the fourth quarter was a major setback, with most of the returns achieved in the first three quarters being wiped out.</p><p>According to sources familiar with the matter, the Pure Alpha fund fell 13.2% in the fourth quarter ending November 25, bringing its year-to-date gains to 6%. The fund surged 22% in the first three quarters, poised to surpass 2010's 27% and record its biggest annual gain in twelve years. This fund product is a low-leverage version of Bridgewater Associates' Pure Alpha II.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117962450","content_text":"摘要：①非农数据强化联储加息预期，道指惊险转涨；②中概指数本周大涨逾20%。海外行情1、非农数据强化联储加息预期美股收盘涨跌不一股周五收盘涨跌不一，三大股指本周均录得涨幅。美国11月非农就业人数与薪资增幅均超预期，预示着未来通胀压力高企，美联储仍需继续遏制通胀，未来可能累计再加息100个基点。道指涨34.87点，涨幅为0.10%，报34429.88点；纳指跌20.95点，跌幅为0.18%，报11461.50点；标普500指数跌4.87点，跌幅为0.12%，报4071.70点。本周道指上涨0.24%，标普500指数上涨1.13%，纳指上涨2.09%。2、周五热门中概股普涨知乎涨超33%B站涨超16%周五热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克金龙指数涨5.39%。该指数本周累涨超22%，创3月中旬以来最大单周涨幅。尚德机构涨超50%，知乎涨超33%，趣头条涨超30%，哔哩哔哩涨超16%、百世集团涨超16%，途牛、一起教育、叮咚买菜涨超15%，小鹏汽车、爱奇艺、雾芯科技、金山云涨超14%，涂鸦智能、亚朵集团、高途、乐居涨超11%，小牛电动涨超10%。3、美国WTI原油周五收跌1.5% 本周上涨4.9%欧股主要指数周四收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX30指数周四收涨0.65%，英国富时100指数跌0.19%，法国CAC40指数涨0.23%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.50%。4、欧股多数收跌 德国DAX30逆势涨0.27%德国DAX30指数涨0.27%，英国富时100指数跌0.01%，法国CAC40指数跌0.17%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.17%，西班牙IBEX35指数跌0.30%，意大利富时MIB指数跌0.30%。纽约商品交易所1月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌1.24美元，跌幅为1.5%，报收于每桶79.98美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周WTI原油期货累计上涨4.9%。5、纽约黄金期货周五收跌0.3% 本周累计上涨3.2%纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期货价格下跌5.60美元，跌幅为0.3%，报收于每盎司1809.60美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周黄金期货价格累计上涨3.2%。宏观新闻1、美国未偿联邦政府债务余额达31.41万亿美元 已超上限当地时间12月2日，据美国财政部的数据，美国未偿联邦政府债务余额已达到31.41万亿美元。据悉，美国国债于2022年2月份超过30万亿美元，于10月份超过31万亿美元。目前美国债务上限为31.4万亿美元，美国现有国债已超过上限，出现债务违约。2、美国劳动力参与率再次下降 越来越多人离开职场美国11月劳动力参与率连续第三个月下降，凸显出企业在寻找足够员工方面的挑战。根据周五公布的政府数据，在职或积极寻找工作的美国人比例降至62.1%。8月份该比例曾升至62.4%，追平了3月份创下的疫情后高点，但仍远低于大流行病爆发前的水平。3、美国总统拜登签署一项法案 避免全国铁路工人罢工当地时间12月2日，美国总统拜登签署了一项避免全国铁路工人罢工的法案，以解决铁路工人劳资纠纷问题。据悉，众议院于当地时间11月30日通过这项法案，参议院于12月1日也投票通过，并提交给拜登。如果没有该法案，全美铁路工人最早可能在12月9日实施罢工，这将导致货物短缺、物价飙升和工厂停产等一系列问题。4、波兰同意欧盟对俄海运石油最高限价为每桶60美元据德国媒体当地时间12月2日报道，波兰已同意欧盟对俄海运石油最高限价为每桶60美元。最终决定将在官方公布之后生效。5、德国总理与企业代表讨论高通胀和高能源价格应对措施当地时间12月2日，德国联邦总理朔尔茨在总理府与德国多家大型企业的首席执行官就俄乌冲突对德国经济的影响交换了意见。会议重点讨论了减轻高通胀影响的措施，如提供通货膨胀补偿，企业可以向员工支付高达3000欧元的补贴，这笔款项可以免税，而员工的实际收入损失可以得到补偿。与会者还讨论了高能源价格的影响。6、寒冬来袭风力不足 欧洲电价和气价双双攀升寒冬来袭之际，欧洲风力发电却大幅下降，这推高了电价和天然气价格，也凸显出欧洲大陆的能源系统的脆弱性。当前，欧洲消费者和企业对飙升的能源账单格外敏感。能源交易员一直关注着天气状况，因为天气会极大地影响天然气的供需，也会导致价格的大起大落。本周以来，欧洲天然气价格接连大涨，周四一度涨逾13%，达到10月13日以来的最高水平。在经历了相对温和的11月之后，欧洲各地的气温本月正在下降。7、OPEC原油产量11月降至2879万桶/日 创近两年最大降幅OPEC原油产量在11月创下了自2020年以来的最大降幅，以满足此前OPEC+达成的最新减产协议。调查显示当月OPEC所有成员国合计减产幅度略超过100万桶/日，令总产量降至2879万桶。其中沙特减产47万桶/日至1044万桶/日，其他海湾产油国也跟进减产。OPCE+将在12月4日举行下一次例会，预计将维持现有产能不变。而此前美国总统拜登曾敦促OPEC增加原油供给量。公司新闻1、效仿特斯拉和宝马，大众汽车将在中国生产出口欧洲的电动汽车周五，大众汽车表示，旗下的西班牙子品牌Cupra，将在大众汽车位于安徽的一家合资工厂生产首款电动SUV车型Tavascan。大众此举是由于德国国内市场产能有限。普华永道预计，到2025年，中国制造的汽车在欧洲的销量可能高达80万辆，其中大部分是纯电动汽车。周五，大众汽车发布声明表示，旗下的西班牙子品牌Cupra，将在大众汽车位于安徽的一家合资工厂生产首款电动SUV车型Tavascan。2、人才战已是过去时$摩根大通、美银等据悉将大砍投行部门奖金在整个华尔街，对银行家奖金的悲观预期正在迅速应验，投行业务活动的萎缩令人才争夺战偃旗息鼓，企业在定薪方面重新站到上风。知情人士透露，摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团都在考虑将投资银行家的奖金池削减多达30%。一些公司计划对绩效差的员工完全不发奖金。消息人士称这些提议仍在讨论之中，未来几周可能会有所调整。3、辉瑞向欧洲投资24亿欧元扩产 为新冠产品营收下滑做准备当地时间周五，辉瑞宣布将投资12亿欧元扩大比利时皮尔斯地区的工厂产能。公司此前在周四刚宣布投入同等规模的资金扩产爱尔兰都柏林工厂。4、两个月毁了前三季度的好成绩 桥水基金年回报率折损大半对冲基金巨头桥水原本有望创下十余年来最佳年度业绩表现，结果第四季度成为其滑铁卢，前三季度取得的大部分回报被悉数回吐。据知情人士透露，Pure Alpha基金在截至11月25日的第四季度下跌13.2%，今年以来累计涨幅降至6%。前三季度该基金飙升22%，本有望超越2010年的27%创下十二年来最大年涨幅。这款基金产品是桥水基金Pure Alpha II的低杠杆版本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964995722,"gmtCreate":1670045891167,"gmtModify":1676538295257,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964995722","repostId":"1176155439","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176155439","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670035708,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176155439?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 10:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The G7 has finally reached a price cap on Russian oil, so why is it $60?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176155439","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：该价格上限旨在达成一种微妙的平衡：即在限制俄罗斯石油出口收入的同时，不减少俄罗斯对全球市场的出货量。在经历激烈的拉锯后，欧盟本周五终于同意将俄罗斯石油的价格上限设定为60美元/桶。这低于媒体此前","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: This price cap aims to strike a delicate balance: limiting Russia's oil export revenue while not reducing Russia's shipments to global markets. After a fierce tug-of-war, the European Union finally agreed on Friday to set a price cap on Russian oil at $60 per barrel. This is lower than the upper limit of $65-70 per barrel previously reported by the media.</p><p>There have long been disagreements within the EU regarding price caps. Regarding the previous proposal of $65-70 per barrel, countries such as Poland, which are eager to control domestic energy costs, felt it was too high and unlikely to be triggered (they hope it will be around $20 per barrel). Countries like Cyprus, which have a large oil shipping industry, believe it is too low (hoping for more than $70 per barrel).</p><p>Media analysts believe that the $60/barrel price cap aims to strike a delicate balance:<b>This means that while limiting Russia's oil export revenue, it will not reduce Russia's shipments to the global market.</b></p><p>According to U.S. Treasury Assistant Secretary Elizabeth Rosenberg, the price of $60 per barrel is the result of a combination of historical data, and it should also be higher than Russia's marginal production costs.</p><p>In terms of data, the selling price of Russian Ural crude oil, based on Brent crude oil, was between $50 and $70 in 2019. According to official Russian data, the Russian government has set the marginal production cost of its own crude oil at $44 per barrel (the West believes the actual figure may be slightly higher).</p><p>Under the new mechanism, the price of $60 per barrel will be adjusted. The new mechanism allows the price cap to be revised every two months. Starting in mid-January 2023, the EU will assess and revise the price ceiling every two months.<b>To ensure that any reset price cap is at least 5% lower than the average market price.</b></p><p>The EU will also set a 45-day transition period before introducing a price cap. The transition period will apply to oil loaded before December 5, the date oil sanctions will take effect, and that oil should be unloaded by January 19. Furthermore, if there are any changes to the oil price ceiling in the future, a 90-day transition period is required.</p><p>The EU reached a consensus on price caps, paving the way for a G7 agreement. After the relevant EU agreements are formally approved, they still need to be approved by the G7. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the price of $60 is within the range agreed upon by the G7.</p><p>Most G7 countries will stop importing Russian crude oil by the end of this year. The European Union will impose a ban on other refined petroleum products originating from Russia next February, while also setting caps on these goods.</p><p>However, the specific actual effect of the price cap remains to be seen. James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics, said<b>Given that $60 per barrel is already close to the actual purchase price of major Russian oil buyers such as India, the price cap will \"have a relatively small impact\".</b>Russia has warned that it will not sell crude oil to any country that has signed the price cap.</p><p>The U.S. government is now concerned that if the price cap is too strict, it could lead to a sharp spike in global oil prices. Given the extreme inelasticity of global oil demand, even a supply-demand imbalance of hundreds of thousands of barrels per day could cause oil prices to soar.<b>The final result is likely to backfire on Europe.</b>Former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin even bluntly stated that the West's setting of a ceiling on Russian oil prices was \"absurd and ridiculous.\"</p><p>For major buyers of Russian oil, such as India and Türkiye, the price cap seems to have no binding force. India's Minister of Oil and Gas has previously stated that it will continue to purchase oil from Russia and from anywhere.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The G7 has finally reached a price cap on Russian oil, so why is it $60?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe G7 has finally reached a price cap on Russian oil, so why is it $60?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-03 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: This price cap aims to strike a delicate balance: limiting Russia's oil export revenue while not reducing Russia's shipments to global markets. After a fierce tug-of-war, the European Union finally agreed on Friday to set a price cap on Russian oil at $60 per barrel. This is lower than the upper limit of $65-70 per barrel previously reported by the media.</p><p>There have long been disagreements within the EU regarding price caps. Regarding the previous proposal of $65-70 per barrel, countries such as Poland, which are eager to control domestic energy costs, felt it was too high and unlikely to be triggered (they hope it will be around $20 per barrel). Countries like Cyprus, which have a large oil shipping industry, believe it is too low (hoping for more than $70 per barrel).</p><p>Media analysts believe that the $60/barrel price cap aims to strike a delicate balance:<b>This means that while limiting Russia's oil export revenue, it will not reduce Russia's shipments to the global market.</b></p><p>According to U.S. Treasury Assistant Secretary Elizabeth Rosenberg, the price of $60 per barrel is the result of a combination of historical data, and it should also be higher than Russia's marginal production costs.</p><p>In terms of data, the selling price of Russian Ural crude oil, based on Brent crude oil, was between $50 and $70 in 2019. According to official Russian data, the Russian government has set the marginal production cost of its own crude oil at $44 per barrel (the West believes the actual figure may be slightly higher).</p><p>Under the new mechanism, the price of $60 per barrel will be adjusted. The new mechanism allows the price cap to be revised every two months. Starting in mid-January 2023, the EU will assess and revise the price ceiling every two months.<b>To ensure that any reset price cap is at least 5% lower than the average market price.</b></p><p>The EU will also set a 45-day transition period before introducing a price cap. The transition period will apply to oil loaded before December 5, the date oil sanctions will take effect, and that oil should be unloaded by January 19. Furthermore, if there are any changes to the oil price ceiling in the future, a 90-day transition period is required.</p><p>The EU reached a consensus on price caps, paving the way for a G7 agreement. After the relevant EU agreements are formally approved, they still need to be approved by the G7. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the price of $60 is within the range agreed upon by the G7.</p><p>Most G7 countries will stop importing Russian crude oil by the end of this year. The European Union will impose a ban on other refined petroleum products originating from Russia next February, while also setting caps on these goods.</p><p>However, the specific actual effect of the price cap remains to be seen. James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics, said<b>Given that $60 per barrel is already close to the actual purchase price of major Russian oil buyers such as India, the price cap will \"have a relatively small impact\".</b>Russia has warned that it will not sell crude oil to any country that has signed the price cap.</p><p>The U.S. government is now concerned that if the price cap is too strict, it could lead to a sharp spike in global oil prices. Given the extreme inelasticity of global oil demand, even a supply-demand imbalance of hundreds of thousands of barrels per day could cause oil prices to soar.<b>The final result is likely to backfire on Europe.</b>Former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin even bluntly stated that the West's setting of a ceiling on Russian oil prices was \"absurd and ridiculous.\"</p><p>For major buyers of Russian oil, such as India and Türkiye, the price cap seems to have no binding force. India's Minister of Oil and Gas has previously stated that it will continue to purchase oil from Russia and from anywhere.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676563\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50ab1228da008e61faa75a03abe0e560","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676563","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176155439","content_text":"摘要：该价格上限旨在达成一种微妙的平衡：即在限制俄罗斯石油出口收入的同时，不减少俄罗斯对全球市场的出货量。在经历激烈的拉锯后，欧盟本周五终于同意将俄罗斯石油的价格上限设定为60美元/桶。这低于媒体此前曝出的65—70美元/桶上限水平。欧盟内部对于价格上限长期存在分歧。对于此前65—70美元/桶议案，波兰等急于控制国内能源成本的国家觉得过高，不太可能被触发（希望20美元/桶左右）；而塞浦路斯等拥有庞大石油海运业的国家则认为太低（希望70美元/桶以上）。媒体分析认为，60美元/桶的上限价格旨在达成一种微妙的平衡：即在限制俄罗斯石油出口收入的同时，不减少俄罗斯对全球市场的出货量。根据美国财政部助理部长Elizabeth Rosenberg的观点，60美元/桶的价格是综合历史数据得出的结果，该价格同时应该高于俄罗斯的边际生产成本。数据方面，基于布伦特原油的俄罗斯乌拉尔原油2019年的出售价格在50—70美元之间。而根据俄罗斯官方的数据，俄罗斯政府确定的本国原油边际生产成本为44美元/桶（西方认为实际数据可能略高）。新的机制下，60美元/桶的价格还会进行调整。新机制允许每两个月修改一次价格上限。从2023年1月中旬起，欧盟将每两个月对价格上限进行评估和修订，以确保任何重置后的价格上限，都比平均市场价格低至少5%。欧盟同时将设置45天的过渡期，之后再引入价格上限。过渡期将适用于在12月5日之前装载的石油，即石油制裁将开始生效的日期，并且这些石油应当在1月19日之前卸载。此外，如果未来石油价格上限发生任何变化，都需要有90天的过渡期。欧盟的价格上限达成共识，为七国集团（G7）的协议铺平道路。欧盟相关协议正式通过后，还需要得到G7的批准。知情人士透露，60美元的价格在G7同意的范围内。大多数G7国家将在今年年底前停止进口俄罗斯原油。欧盟将于明年2月对源自俄罗斯的其他精炼石油产品实施禁令，同时对这些商品设置上限。但价格上限的具体实际效果还有待观察。WTRG Economics能源经济学家 James Williams表示，鉴于60美元/桶已经接近印度等俄油采购大国实际购买价格，价格上限将“产生相对较小的影响”。俄罗斯方面已经警告，不会向签署价格上限的任何国家出售原油。美国政府目前担心，价格上限如果过于严格，可能导致全球油价大幅飙升。鉴于全球石油需求极度缺乏弹性，即使是每天几十万桶的供需失衡也可能导致油价飙升，最后结果，恐怕是对欧洲形成反噬。前财长姆努钦甚至直言，西方设定对俄石油价格上限“荒谬可笑”。而对于印度、土耳其等俄油大买家而言，价格上限似乎没有约束力。印度石油和天然气部长此前已经表态，将继续从俄罗斯购买石油，将从任何地方购买石油。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965324043,"gmtCreate":1669899320683,"gmtModify":1676538265872,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965324043","repostId":"1131592336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131592336","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669888770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131592336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-01 17:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Global debt costs are soaring! What does it mean?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131592336","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A storm is brewing. Since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve launched their most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades, the era of cheap money is rapidly becoming a thing of the past. Currently, many countries are heavily indebted and borrowing costs are rising, causing excruciating pain.</p><p>A recent report released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) shows that total global debt reached $290 trillion in the third quarter, although it is lower than the historical high at the beginning of the year.<b>But it is still more than a third higher than a decade ago.</b></p><p>As central banks continue their rate hike, borrowing costs for households, businesses, and governments continue to rise, piling up risks in the economy and financial markets.</p><p>From a government perspective, emerging markets face greater debt risks than developed countries, especially those that borrow heavily in dollar bonds. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch have already emerged in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage payments are the heaviest burden for most families, making them the most dangerous area.</p><p>The worst case scenario is,<b>Some components of the global financial system may collapse.</b>From the large-scale bankruptcies of Japanese companies in the 1990s to the US subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are countless examples of debt turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgages</b></p><p>Some countries avoided the collapse of their real estate and banking sectors during the Great Recession, resulting in a continuous increase in domestic household debt, a large portion of which is floating-rate mortgages, which also means...<b>Higher interest rates from the central bank will quickly be passed on to already heavily indebted households.</b></p><p>American households no longer have such a \"time bomb\" after experiencing the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins recently stated, but this situation exists in other countries.</p><p>For example, Canada, Australia, and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the highest household debt levels in the world, with a household debt-to-income ratio as high as 180%. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund because some borrowers had begun defaulting on their payments.</p><p>Australia's household debt-to-income ratio now exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of mortgage applicants in the second quarter of this year were financially vulnerable because their debt-to-income ratio was six times or higher.</p><p>In the UK, most mortgage rates will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowings). In the Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway, debt repayments as a percentage of household income are already far higher than this figure, and this ratio could exceed 15% if central banks continue their rate hike as expected.</p><p>In Asia, Jonathan Cornish, head of banking ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, recently stated that mortgage borrowers in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand will also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, household debt, with mortgages accounting for more than 40%, reached 1,870.6 trillion won (approximately 9.8989 trillion yuan) at the end of September, setting a new record for the second consecutive quarter and maintaining growth for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. A recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, South Korea's private debt-to-GDP ratio was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous benchmark (100%). Private debt is mainly household debt.</p><p><b>Defaults soar, more companies will become insolvent</b></p><p>According to IIF data, businesses (outside the financial sector) and governments are both the largest borrowers in the era of cheap money. However, unlike governments, businesses cannot solve the debt crisis by printing money.</p><p>This year's soaring debt costs have had the greatest impact on so-called \"zombie companies,\" which typically only make barely enough money to repay their debts. In some ways, about one-fifth of listed companies already met this definition when interest rates were low.<b>As debt costs soar, more companies will become \"zombie companies,\" and those already on the list may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates,<b>The default rate of global junk bonds will almost double next year.</b>According to Barclays' analysis,<b>In the $6.7 trillion U.S. highly rated corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults could be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises that tend to borrow from banks at floating interest rates. As the Fed's rate hike peaks early next year, they are likely to be forced to lay off employees. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks to appear in the first quarter as these small businesses begin to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low-interest-rate environment of the past few years, the private credit market has undergone many large-scale leveraged financing operations in recent years. However, with the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike, stocks and bonds have both fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted, making the once \"golden goose\" a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one could have imagined that Federal Funds rate would approach 5% in the lifetime of these deals.</b><b>The minutes of the Federal Reserve's November FOMC meeting released last week showed that some policymakers pointed out that \"implicit leverage\" in the non-bank sector could undermine the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are more concerned about Asia, as a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Property bond prices in Vietnam and Indonesia fell sharply; The Legoland default in South Korea in October triggered a panic sell-off in the credit market and exacerbated concerns about defaults by real estate companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets are on the verge of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies typically do not face the same direct challenges as those facing households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that does not mean they are invulnerable.</p><p>Take the UK, for example. Former Prime Minister Truss's massive tax cut plan almost crashed the domestic Treasury Bond market. Truss has now stepped down and UK financial markets have stabilized, but as the Bank of England's rate hike pace is unlikely to change in the short term, the new government still faces the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>Italy's public debt problem is almost the most troublesome among advanced economies.</b>Data previously released by Eurostat showed that by the end of the first quarter of this year, Italy's government debt as a percentage of GDP was 152.6%, second only to Greece's 189.3%. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>By 2030, the government alone will have to pay more than 7% of GDP in interest.</b></p><p>The United States may also face political difficulties on the debt issue. Faced with the \"wildly growing\" debt, the Biden administration's only option at present is to raise the debt ceiling, which requires the support of Republicans. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States cannot reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>At that time, U.S. domestic bank interest rates will soar, the stock market will plummet, and retirement accounts will shrink significantly, dealing a fatal blow to the U.S. economy.</p><p>In contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for some time. Sri Lanka and Zambia have both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>Data released by the IIF last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, matching the record high reached in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or at high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global debt costs are soaring! What does it mean?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal debt costs are soaring! What does it mean?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-01 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A storm is brewing. Since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve launched their most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades, the era of cheap money is rapidly becoming a thing of the past. Currently, many countries are heavily indebted and borrowing costs are rising, causing excruciating pain.</p><p>A recent report released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) shows that total global debt reached $290 trillion in the third quarter, although it is lower than the historical high at the beginning of the year.<b>But it is still more than a third higher than a decade ago.</b></p><p>As central banks continue their rate hike, borrowing costs for households, businesses, and governments continue to rise, piling up risks in the economy and financial markets.</p><p>From a government perspective, emerging markets face greater debt risks than developed countries, especially those that borrow heavily in dollar bonds. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch have already emerged in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage payments are the heaviest burden for most families, making them the most dangerous area.</p><p>The worst case scenario is,<b>Some components of the global financial system may collapse.</b>From the large-scale bankruptcies of Japanese companies in the 1990s to the US subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are countless examples of debt turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgages</b></p><p>Some countries avoided the collapse of their real estate and banking sectors during the Great Recession, resulting in a continuous increase in domestic household debt, a large portion of which is floating-rate mortgages, which also means...<b>Higher interest rates from the central bank will quickly be passed on to already heavily indebted households.</b></p><p>American households no longer have such a \"time bomb\" after experiencing the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins recently stated, but this situation exists in other countries.</p><p>For example, Canada, Australia, and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the highest household debt levels in the world, with a household debt-to-income ratio as high as 180%. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund because some borrowers had begun defaulting on their payments.</p><p>Australia's household debt-to-income ratio now exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of mortgage applicants in the second quarter of this year were financially vulnerable because their debt-to-income ratio was six times or higher.</p><p>In the UK, most mortgage rates will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowings). In the Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway, debt repayments as a percentage of household income are already far higher than this figure, and this ratio could exceed 15% if central banks continue their rate hike as expected.</p><p>In Asia, Jonathan Cornish, head of banking ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, recently stated that mortgage borrowers in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand will also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, household debt, with mortgages accounting for more than 40%, reached 1,870.6 trillion won (approximately 9.8989 trillion yuan) at the end of September, setting a new record for the second consecutive quarter and maintaining growth for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. A recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, South Korea's private debt-to-GDP ratio was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous benchmark (100%). Private debt is mainly household debt.</p><p><b>Defaults soar, more companies will become insolvent</b></p><p>According to IIF data, businesses (outside the financial sector) and governments are both the largest borrowers in the era of cheap money. However, unlike governments, businesses cannot solve the debt crisis by printing money.</p><p>This year's soaring debt costs have had the greatest impact on so-called \"zombie companies,\" which typically only make barely enough money to repay their debts. In some ways, about one-fifth of listed companies already met this definition when interest rates were low.<b>As debt costs soar, more companies will become \"zombie companies,\" and those already on the list may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates,<b>The default rate of global junk bonds will almost double next year.</b>According to Barclays' analysis,<b>In the $6.7 trillion U.S. highly rated corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults could be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises that tend to borrow from banks at floating interest rates. As the Fed's rate hike peaks early next year, they are likely to be forced to lay off employees. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks to appear in the first quarter as these small businesses begin to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low-interest-rate environment of the past few years, the private credit market has undergone many large-scale leveraged financing operations in recent years. However, with the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike, stocks and bonds have both fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted, making the once \"golden goose\" a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one could have imagined that Federal Funds rate would approach 5% in the lifetime of these deals.</b><b>The minutes of the Federal Reserve's November FOMC meeting released last week showed that some policymakers pointed out that \"implicit leverage\" in the non-bank sector could undermine the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are more concerned about Asia, as a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Property bond prices in Vietnam and Indonesia fell sharply; The Legoland default in South Korea in October triggered a panic sell-off in the credit market and exacerbated concerns about defaults by real estate companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets are on the verge of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies typically do not face the same direct challenges as those facing households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that does not mean they are invulnerable.</p><p>Take the UK, for example. Former Prime Minister Truss's massive tax cut plan almost crashed the domestic Treasury Bond market. Truss has now stepped down and UK financial markets have stabilized, but as the Bank of England's rate hike pace is unlikely to change in the short term, the new government still faces the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>Italy's public debt problem is almost the most troublesome among advanced economies.</b>Data previously released by Eurostat showed that by the end of the first quarter of this year, Italy's government debt as a percentage of GDP was 152.6%, second only to Greece's 189.3%. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>By 2030, the government alone will have to pay more than 7% of GDP in interest.</b></p><p>The United States may also face political difficulties on the debt issue. Faced with the \"wildly growing\" debt, the Biden administration's only option at present is to raise the debt ceiling, which requires the support of Republicans. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States cannot reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>At that time, U.S. domestic bank interest rates will soar, the stock market will plummet, and retirement accounts will shrink significantly, dealing a fatal blow to the U.S. economy.</p><p>In contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for some time. Sri Lanka and Zambia have both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>Data released by the IIF last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, matching the record high reached in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or at high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131592336","content_text":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债务总额三季度为290万亿美元，虽然较年初的历史高位有所下降，但仍比十年前增加了三分之一以上。随着各国央行继续加息，家庭、企业和政府的借贷成本继续上升，经济和金融市场风险堆积如山。从政府层面来看，相较于发达国家，新兴市场面临的债务风险更大，尤其是那些大量借入美元债的国家。至于企业，信贷紧缩的迹象已经在全球金融领域显现出来。而对消费者而言，房贷支出是多数家庭最沉重的负担，因此这也是最危险的地方。最坏的情况是，全球金融体系中的某些组成部分可能会崩溃。从上世纪90年代日本企业大规模破产，到之后几十年的美国次贷危机和欧债危机，债务变成坏账的例子比比皆是。被房贷“压垮”的家庭有些国家在大衰退中躲过了房地产和银行业的崩溃，因此国内家庭债务一直在增加，并且有很大一部分是浮动利率抵押贷款，这也意味着央行更高的利率会迅速传导到已经负债累累的家庭身上。美国家庭经历过次贷危机后已经不存在这样的“定时炸弹”了，TS Lombard经济学家Dario Perkins最近表示，但其他国家存在这种情况。比如加拿大、澳大利亚和韩国。加拿大是世界上家庭负债最高的国家之一，家庭债务与收入比高达180%。最近，总部位于多伦多的房地产贷款机构Romspen Investment Corp.暂停了对其最大抵押贷款基金的赎回，原因是一些借款人已经开始断供。澳大利亚家庭负债与收入之比目前超过了200%，近期，该国金融监管机构估计，今年二季度办理抵押贷款的客户有22%财政状况比较脆弱，因为他们的债务收入比达到6倍或更高。在英国，大多数抵押贷款的利率将在两到三年后重新调整，债务偿还额有望超过所有家庭收入的10% (不仅仅是抵押贷款借款)。在荷兰、瑞典和挪威，债务偿还额占家庭收入比例已经远远高于这一数字，如果各国央行按照预期继续加息，这一比例将超15%迈进。亚洲方面，惠誉评级亚太区银行评级主管乔Jonathan Cornish近期表示，韩国、马来西亚和泰国等国家的房贷者也将受到挤压。在韩国，房贷占比超过40%的家庭负债在9月底高达1870.6万亿韩元(约合人民币9.8989万亿元)，连续两个季度刷新历史最高纪录，自2013年第二季度以来连续38个季度保持增势。IMF近期报告也显示，今年二季度，韩国民间负债与GDP的比率为173.6%，远远超过IMF的危险基准线(100%)。民间负债以家庭负债为主。违约飙升，更多企业将资不抵债根据IIF的数据，企业(金融行业以外)与政府齐头并进，都是廉价资金时代的最大借款人，但与政府不同的是，企业不能通过印钞来解决债务危机。今年债务成本飙升，对于一些所谓“僵尸公司”的冲击最大，这类公司一般只能赚到刚刚够偿还债务的钱。从某些方面来看，大约五分之一的上市公司在利率较低时就已经符合这一定义。当债务成本飙升，将有更多公司沦为“僵尸公司”，而已经在列的公司则可能会破产。穆迪分析公司估计，全球垃圾债明年的违约率将几乎翻一番。根据巴克莱银行的分析，在价值6.7万亿美元的美国高评级企业债市场，有迹象表明，违约情况可能是过去50年中最严重的。杰富瑞首席金融经济学家Aneta Markowska表示，对于倾向于以浮动利率从银行借款的美国中小企业而言，最糟糕的时刻尚未到来。随着明年年初美联储加息达到峰值，他们很可能被迫裁员。她表示：我预计第一季度会出现更多裂缝，因为这些小企业开始感受到加息的痛苦。在过去数年的低利率环境中，私人信贷市场近年来进行了许多大型杠杆融资，但随着美联储持续加息，股债齐跌，高风险资产价格暴跌，曾经“生金蛋的鹅”成了烫手山芋。Markowska表示：债务在被承销时，没有人会想到，在这些交易的有生之年，联邦基金利率会接近5%。上周公布的11月份美联储FOMC会议纪要显示，一些政策制定者指出，非银行部门的“隐性杠杆”可能破坏大型全球市场的功能。投资者对亚洲的担忧更甚，美元走强使得以美元计价的债务更加昂贵。越南和印尼地产债价格大幅下跌；韩国10月乐高乐园违约事件引发信贷市场恐慌性抛售，同时也加剧了人们对房企违约的担忧。新兴市场站在破产边缘对于发达经济体而言，以本币发债的政府通常不会在利率上升时面临向家庭和企业那样的直接挑战，但这并不意味着他们是无懈可击的。拿英国来说，前首相特拉斯的大规模减税计划差点搞崩本国国债市场。目前，特拉斯已经下台，英国金融市场企稳，但由于英国央行的加息步伐短期内难以改变，新政府明年仍面临借贷成本翻倍的挑战。意大利公共债务问题是发达经济体中几乎是最令人头疼的。欧盟统计局此前公布的数据显示，到今年第一季度末，意大利政府债务占GDP比例为152.6%，仅次于希腊的189.3%。令据彭博经济估计，到2030年，光是政府需要支付的利息就将超过GDP的7%。美国在债务问题上也可能面临政治难题。面对“野蛮生长”的债务，拜登政府目前唯一的办法就是提高债务上限，而这需要共和党人的支持。有分析人士预测，若美国两党无法就提高债务上限达成妥协，明年第三季度美国或陷入债务违约危机。届时，美国国内银行利率飙升、股市暴跌、养老金账户大幅缩水，美国经济将遭到致命打击。相比之下，许多新兴市场已经在主权债务危机里挣扎多时了。斯里兰卡和赞比亚双双违约，埃及和巴基斯坦等国家也面临违约风险。IIF上周二公布的数据显示，三季度发展中经济体的债务与GDP之比上升到254%，与2021年第一季度创下的纪录高位相当。IMF数据也显示，超过60%的低收入国家处于债务困境，或者面临债务困境高风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962497013,"gmtCreate":1669820694133,"gmtModify":1676538250201,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962497013","repostId":"2287792664","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287792664","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669820474,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287792664?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Supply or demand? The Federal Reserve is trying to find the key drivers of high inflation.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287792664","media":"智通财经","summary":"旧金山联储的分析显示，目前通胀更多是由需求驱动的，但其他研究表明很难区分通胀的驱动因素。根据美联储经济学家建立的新衡量标准，商品和服务的强劲需求可能正开始超过疫情和俄乌冲突造成的供应限制，成为推动美国","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Analysis by the San Francisco Federal Reserve shows that inflation is currently driven more by demand, but other studies have shown that it is difficult to distinguish the drivers of inflation.</p><p>According to new measures established by Federal Reserve economists, strong demand for goods and services may be beginning to outpace supply constraints caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, becoming a significant factor driving U.S. prices.</p><p>On the surface, this means that inflation is more likely to persist, even as the damage caused by the pandemic and war fades from view, which strengthens the Federal Reserve's case for tightening policy to combat inflation. But the new research also contains evidence pointing in another direction, illustrating how difficult it is to sort out the impact of supply and demand on prices.</p><p>\"This is an old economic problem.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Chief economist Mark Zandi said, \"This is really important in terms of current monetary policy because if you feel that it is more supply-side driven than demand-side driven, you may be more supportive of the view that the Fed should act cautiously.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b83bc4b1578c580dcefe7f8653863ff\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To identify the different drivers of inflation, Federal Reserve economists focused on the relationship between the prices of individual goods and services and the quantity of those goods and services purchased by consumers. In the category where prices and quantities rise simultaneously, inflation is classified as primarily driven by demand. When prices rise and quantities fall, inflation is called supply-driven.</p><p>Typically, demand-driven types are considered more durable than supply-driven types. But new research suggests that this conclusion is not actually so clear-cut.</p><p><b>Continuous demand-driven</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's upcoming October core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) is expected to fall to 5%. According to breakdown data from the San Francisco Federal Reserve using price and quantity methods, the figure was 5.1% in September, marking the first time since inflation began in the summer of 2021 that demand-driven price pressures exceeded supply-driven annual figures.</p><p>It is worth noting that there are still a considerable number of \"fuzzy\" categories of goods and services that cannot be fully categorized into either the supply or demand buckets, accounting for about one-fifth of the total. This means that demand still accounts for less than half of overall core inflation.</p><p>Another issue is that demand-driven inflation does not necessarily require a tougher central bank response in the form of raising interest rates. This depends on whether these effects fade quickly, another factor that economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston have been studying.</p><p>\"A sustained demand shock requires 'going against the wind' more than a short-term demand shock,\" said Viacheslav Sheremirov, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.</p><p>Once the inflation of a class of goods or services is determined to be demand-driven or supply-driven, Sheremirov's research attempts to further classify it as temporary or persistent. “I actually found an important component of ongoing demand, which is not common compared to historical data. Typically, most demand comes from temporary sources.”</p><p><b>Impact of housing</b></p><p>Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco shows that housing plays a significant role in driving demand, partly because it accounts for a large proportion of households' monthly budgets. However, research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston found that classifying housing as a persistent source of demand-driven inflation is not easy.</p><p>Conversely, it believes that other service categories, particularly travel-related services such as airfares and hotel accommodations, are the most enduring drivers of demand-driven inflation.</p><p>This is consistent with the savings accumulated during the lockdown as people rushed to consume when the service sector reopened. Although this impact began to fade by June 2022, when the Boston Federal Reserve Bank's analysis stopped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca119353b9b8567426a980024dd0080\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zandi is also conducting similar price and quantity analysis. Its research shows that the impact of demand pressures peaked in the spring and summer of 2021. The passage of the U.S. rescue plan and the rollout of vaccines boosted spending. After the economy reopened, supply shocks pushed inflation to a 40-year high.</p><p>As these supply pressures begin to subside, inflation may once again become more demand-driven, but this will coincide with a lower overall inflation rate: forecasters expect inflation to fall below 3% by the end of next year.</p><p>Zandi stated, \"If nothing changes, then in six or 12 months, inflation will be more on the demand side than the supply side. But by then, the inflation rate will be much lower and won't be a problem. It's a problem now, and the reason it's a problem now is on the supply side.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Supply or demand? The Federal Reserve is trying to find the key drivers of high inflation.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSupply or demand? The Federal Reserve is trying to find the key drivers of high inflation.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Analysis by the San Francisco Federal Reserve shows that inflation is currently driven more by demand, but other studies have shown that it is difficult to distinguish the drivers of inflation.</p><p>According to new measures established by Federal Reserve economists, strong demand for goods and services may be beginning to outpace supply constraints caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, becoming a significant factor driving U.S. prices.</p><p>On the surface, this means that inflation is more likely to persist, even as the damage caused by the pandemic and war fades from view, which strengthens the Federal Reserve's case for tightening policy to combat inflation. But the new research also contains evidence pointing in another direction, illustrating how difficult it is to sort out the impact of supply and demand on prices.</p><p>\"This is an old economic problem.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Chief economist Mark Zandi said, \"This is really important in terms of current monetary policy because if you feel that it is more supply-side driven than demand-side driven, you may be more supportive of the view that the Fed should act cautiously.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b83bc4b1578c580dcefe7f8653863ff\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To identify the different drivers of inflation, Federal Reserve economists focused on the relationship between the prices of individual goods and services and the quantity of those goods and services purchased by consumers. In the category where prices and quantities rise simultaneously, inflation is classified as primarily driven by demand. When prices rise and quantities fall, inflation is called supply-driven.</p><p>Typically, demand-driven types are considered more durable than supply-driven types. But new research suggests that this conclusion is not actually so clear-cut.</p><p><b>Continuous demand-driven</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's upcoming October core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) is expected to fall to 5%. According to breakdown data from the San Francisco Federal Reserve using price and quantity methods, the figure was 5.1% in September, marking the first time since inflation began in the summer of 2021 that demand-driven price pressures exceeded supply-driven annual figures.</p><p>It is worth noting that there are still a considerable number of \"fuzzy\" categories of goods and services that cannot be fully categorized into either the supply or demand buckets, accounting for about one-fifth of the total. This means that demand still accounts for less than half of overall core inflation.</p><p>Another issue is that demand-driven inflation does not necessarily require a tougher central bank response in the form of raising interest rates. This depends on whether these effects fade quickly, another factor that economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston have been studying.</p><p>\"A sustained demand shock requires 'going against the wind' more than a short-term demand shock,\" said Viacheslav Sheremirov, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.</p><p>Once the inflation of a class of goods or services is determined to be demand-driven or supply-driven, Sheremirov's research attempts to further classify it as temporary or persistent. “I actually found an important component of ongoing demand, which is not common compared to historical data. Typically, most demand comes from temporary sources.”</p><p><b>Impact of housing</b></p><p>Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco shows that housing plays a significant role in driving demand, partly because it accounts for a large proportion of households' monthly budgets. However, research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston found that classifying housing as a persistent source of demand-driven inflation is not easy.</p><p>Conversely, it believes that other service categories, particularly travel-related services such as airfares and hotel accommodations, are the most enduring drivers of demand-driven inflation.</p><p>This is consistent with the savings accumulated during the lockdown as people rushed to consume when the service sector reopened. Although this impact began to fade by June 2022, when the Boston Federal Reserve Bank's analysis stopped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca119353b9b8567426a980024dd0080\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zandi is also conducting similar price and quantity analysis. Its research shows that the impact of demand pressures peaked in the spring and summer of 2021. The passage of the U.S. rescue plan and the rollout of vaccines boosted spending. After the economy reopened, supply shocks pushed inflation to a 40-year high.</p><p>As these supply pressures begin to subside, inflation may once again become more demand-driven, but this will coincide with a lower overall inflation rate: forecasters expect inflation to fall below 3% by the end of next year.</p><p>Zandi stated, \"If nothing changes, then in six or 12 months, inflation will be more on the demand side than the supply side. But by then, the inflation rate will be much lower and won't be a problem. It's a problem now, and the reason it's a problem now is on the supply side.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/840090.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4581":"高盛持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/840090.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287792664","content_text":"旧金山联储的分析显示，目前通胀更多是由需求驱动的，但其他研究表明很难区分通胀的驱动因素。根据美联储经济学家建立的新衡量标准，商品和服务的强劲需求可能正开始超过疫情和俄乌冲突造成的供应限制，成为推动美国物价的重要因素。从表面上看，这意味着通胀更有可能持续下去，即使疫情和战争造成的破坏逐渐淡出人们的视野，这也增强了美联储收紧政策以应对通胀的理由。但新的研究也包含了指向另一个方向的证据，说明了理清供需对价格的影响有多么困难。“这是一个古老的经济问题”，穆迪首席经济学家Mark Zandi表示，“就当前的货币政策而言，这真的很重要，因为如果你觉得它更多是由供给侧驱动的，而不是由需求侧驱动的，你可能会更支持美联储应该谨慎行事的观点”。为了梳理出通胀的不同驱动因素，美联储的经济学家们把重点放在了个别商品和服务价格与消费者购买这些商品和服务数量之间的关系上。在价格和数量同时上升的类别中，通胀被归类为主要由需求驱动的。在价格上升而数量下降的情况下，通货膨胀被称为供给驱动。通常情况下，需求驱动型被认为比供应驱动型更持久。但新的研究表明，这个结论实际上并没有那么明确。持续性需求驱动美联储即将公布的10月核心PCE物价指数(不包括食品和能源类)预计将降至5%。根据旧金山联储使用价格和数量方法的细分数据，9月份这一数字为5.1%，自2021年夏季通胀开始以来，该月需求驱动的价格压力首次超过了供应驱动的年度数字。值得注意的是，仍有相当大规模的“模糊”商品和服务类别，它们既不能完全归入供应桶，也不能完全归入需求桶，这类商品和服务约占总量的五分之一。这意味着需求在整体核心通胀中所占的比重仍不到一半。另一个问题是，需求驱动型通胀并不一定需要央行以提高利率的形式做出更强硬的回应。这取决于这些影响是否会迅速消退，这是波士顿联邦储备银行的经济学家一直在研究的另一个因素。波士顿联邦储备银行经济学家Viacheslav Sheremirov表示：“与短暂的需求冲击相比，持续的需求冲击更需要‘逆风而行’。”一旦某一类商品或服务的通胀被确定为需求驱动型或供给驱动型，Sheremirov的研究试图进一步将其划分为暂时性或持续性。“我实际上发现了一个重要的持续需求成分，与历史数据相比，这并不常见。通常情况下，大部分需求都来自暂时性来源”。住房的影响旧金山联邦储备银行的数据显示，住房在需求驱动方面扮演了重要角色，部分原因是它在家庭每月预算中占据了巨大的比重。但波士顿联邦储备银行的研究发现，要把住房归类为需求驱动型通胀的持续来源并不容易。相反，它认为其他服务类别尤其是与旅游相关的服务，如机票和酒店住宿是需求驱动型通胀最持久的推动力。这与服务行业重新开放时，人们急于消费封锁期间积累的储蓄相一致。尽管到2022年6月，波士顿联邦储备银行的分析停止时，这种影响开始消退。Zandi也在做类似的价格和数量分析，其研究表明，需求压力的影响在2021年春夏达到顶峰，美国救援计划的通过和疫苗的推出推动了支出，经济重新开放之后，供应冲击推动通胀升至40年来的高点。随着这些供应方面的压力现在也开始消退，通胀可能再次变得更受需求驱动，但这将与一个更低的整体通胀率相吻合：预测者预计到明年年底，通胀率将降至3%以下。Zandi表示：“如果没有任何变化，那么6个月或12个月后，通胀将更多是需求面而非供给面。但到那时，通胀率会低得多，不会成为问题。现在这是一个问题，而现在成为一个问题的原因在于供应方面”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".IXIC":1,"TQQQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPY":1,"SDS":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":1,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9928414849,"gmtCreate":1671360501182,"gmtModify":1676538526739,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928414849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982552450,"gmtCreate":1667218090170,"gmtModify":1676537879216,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982552450","repostId":"2279808891","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2279808891","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1667201183,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2279808891?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-31 15:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market is betting on the Federal Reserve's dovish stance this week, and US stocks are expected to continue their rebound.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2279808891","media":"智通财经网","summary":"几个月以来，投资者一直在急切地等待美联储激进的加息政策何时能够转向温和。但现在，至少对于一些押注美联储长期维持鹰派政策的交易员来说，这一转向有可能来得太早了。智通财经APP了解到，MLIV  Puls","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>For months, investors have been eagerly waiting for the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike policy to turn moderate. But now, at least for some traders who are betting on the Federal Reserve maintaining its hawkish policy for the long term, this shift may come too soon.</p><p>According to Zhitong Finance APP, the latest survey by MLIV Pulse shows that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell releases any \"dovish\" signals at this week's press conference, he could instantly panic some investors.</p><p><b>Markets are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of rate hike.</b></p><p>Of the 250 respondents surveyed last week, nearly half said they had bought dollars ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on November 1-2, and about 78% expected the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury Bond to rise. These bets have worked well in the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policy, but these bettors may pay the price if Powell suggests raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December, or by 25 basis points in early 2023, before ending the Fed's rate hike cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9441ea1680c5afaec53f7de92fa753c3\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What will be the peak of the 2-year US Treasury yield before the end of the year? The respondents were professional investors and retail investors.</b></p><p>The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to rate hike by 75 basis points on November 2 to combat a persistent inflationary environment, which is essentially priced in. However, overly aggressive austerity measures could push the United States into recession, leading to the worst annual decline in U.S. Treasury Bond on record, and the stock market could experience its biggest drop since 2008.</p><p>Therefore, the focus of market attention this week is not on the magnitude of the rate hike—a 75 basis point rate hike is a foregone conclusion—but on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on the monetary policy outlook.</p><p>It is certain that market expectations for the Federal Reserve to release dovish signals are rising, which is a major reason for the sharp rebound in the S&P 500 last week. Currently, market bets on the Fed's December rate hike of 50 basis points have exceeded 75 basis points.</p><p>According to the CME group FedWatch tool, the market currently expects a cooling of expectations regarding the peak range and timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate peak. The peak range has decreased from 5%-5.25% to 4.75%-5%, and the peak time for interest rates has been brought forward from May to March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655acb30a33143da4e8f57b4e3e33071\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Among the respondents surveyed, many groups did not buy either short-term Treasury Bond or long-term Treasury Bond ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. However, more than 60% of respondents believe that the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index will rise in a month.</p><p>This suggests that if there are strong signals of a slowdown in rate hike, the money and fixed income markets could react significantly.</p><p><b>If Powell unexpectedly \"dovish\" this week, US stocks are expected to continue their rebound.</b></p><p>Alec Young, chief investment strategist at MAPsignals, said in an interview, \"This data does prove that the Federal Reserve may pause its actions. The market hopes so, and if we actually achieve that, the market will rebound because there are still many people who are skeptical of them.\"</p><p>Recent actions by Federal Reserve counterparts suggest that mild surprises are not impossible. Both the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia recently raised their benchmark interest rates less than economists and traders generally expected. Investors also believe that the European Central Bank's future policy pace may not be as aggressive.</p><p>Some traders have seen enough signs to try to soften the Fed's hawkish rhetoric in advance. October<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>With its first monthly decline since May imminent, the S&P 500 has rebounded by about 10% from its earlier low of 3,491 on October 13, despite disappointing results from some tech giants.</p><p>Nicole Webb, senior vice president and financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement Group, said in an interview: \"If the Federal Reserve signals a possible 50 basis point rate hike in December, the market will see a mitigating rebound.\"</p><p>come from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Matt Fleury of the equities department said, \"If Powell is 'dovish' this week and doesn't display the same strong stance as at the Jackson Hole meeting, from a technical perspective, there's little that can stop this rebound—moving objects continue to move. But if Powell expresses support for maintaining hawkish monetary policy, it will be an excellent short-selling opportunity.\"</p><p>Ellen Zentner Leadership<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Economists have said that FOMC members such as Powell will retain all options in December. Although some data indicate further economic weakness, inflation remains at historically high levels. Plagued by past lessons and criticized for acting too slowly to address price pressures, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been reluctant to pin his hopes on a slowdown in market inflation expectations, giving him no reason to ease policy.</p><p><b>Rising credit market default expectations have forced the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy.</b></p><p>It is worth noting that 54% of respondents said that as rising borrowing costs and the resulting economic downturn erode corporate profits, the difficulties in the credit market and rising default rates are becoming increasingly concerning for investors. Corporate debt pressures have outweighed concerns about liquidity shortages in the U.S. Treasury Bond. However, after a year of sharp declines in bond prices, liquidity shortages in the U.S. Treasury Bond market are approaching levels seen during the 2020 crisis, raising concerns about market functioning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6744bd9400b6f10daeba40e0321d86\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What are you most worried about? —The survey results show that most investors are concerned about credit market defaults.</b></p><p>The shelving of leveraged buyout financing, plummeting issuances, and soaring yields have recently raised concerns about the dysfunction of corporate bonds. With more cracks appearing, Asian markets have suddenly returned to the spotlight, and the prospect of default looks very grim. Growing concerns about the credit market—long seen as a canary that foreshadows an economic recession—will only increase investors' expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market is betting on the Federal Reserve's dovish stance this week, and US stocks are expected to continue their rebound.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market is betting on the Federal Reserve's dovish stance this week, and US stocks are expected to continue their rebound.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-31 15:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>For months, investors have been eagerly waiting for the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike policy to turn moderate. But now, at least for some traders who are betting on the Federal Reserve maintaining its hawkish policy for the long term, this shift may come too soon.</p><p>According to Zhitong Finance APP, the latest survey by MLIV Pulse shows that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell releases any \"dovish\" signals at this week's press conference, he could instantly panic some investors.</p><p><b>Markets are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of rate hike.</b></p><p>Of the 250 respondents surveyed last week, nearly half said they had bought dollars ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on November 1-2, and about 78% expected the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury Bond to rise. These bets have worked well in the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policy, but these bettors may pay the price if Powell suggests raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December, or by 25 basis points in early 2023, before ending the Fed's rate hike cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9441ea1680c5afaec53f7de92fa753c3\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What will be the peak of the 2-year US Treasury yield before the end of the year? The respondents were professional investors and retail investors.</b></p><p>The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to rate hike by 75 basis points on November 2 to combat a persistent inflationary environment, which is essentially priced in. However, overly aggressive austerity measures could push the United States into recession, leading to the worst annual decline in U.S. Treasury Bond on record, and the stock market could experience its biggest drop since 2008.</p><p>Therefore, the focus of market attention this week is not on the magnitude of the rate hike—a 75 basis point rate hike is a foregone conclusion—but on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on the monetary policy outlook.</p><p>It is certain that market expectations for the Federal Reserve to release dovish signals are rising, which is a major reason for the sharp rebound in the S&P 500 last week. Currently, market bets on the Fed's December rate hike of 50 basis points have exceeded 75 basis points.</p><p>According to the CME group FedWatch tool, the market currently expects a cooling of expectations regarding the peak range and timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate peak. The peak range has decreased from 5%-5.25% to 4.75%-5%, and the peak time for interest rates has been brought forward from May to March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655acb30a33143da4e8f57b4e3e33071\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Among the respondents surveyed, many groups did not buy either short-term Treasury Bond or long-term Treasury Bond ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. However, more than 60% of respondents believe that the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index will rise in a month.</p><p>This suggests that if there are strong signals of a slowdown in rate hike, the money and fixed income markets could react significantly.</p><p><b>If Powell unexpectedly \"dovish\" this week, US stocks are expected to continue their rebound.</b></p><p>Alec Young, chief investment strategist at MAPsignals, said in an interview, \"This data does prove that the Federal Reserve may pause its actions. The market hopes so, and if we actually achieve that, the market will rebound because there are still many people who are skeptical of them.\"</p><p>Recent actions by Federal Reserve counterparts suggest that mild surprises are not impossible. Both the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia recently raised their benchmark interest rates less than economists and traders generally expected. Investors also believe that the European Central Bank's future policy pace may not be as aggressive.</p><p>Some traders have seen enough signs to try to soften the Fed's hawkish rhetoric in advance. October<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>With its first monthly decline since May imminent, the S&P 500 has rebounded by about 10% from its earlier low of 3,491 on October 13, despite disappointing results from some tech giants.</p><p>Nicole Webb, senior vice president and financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement Group, said in an interview: \"If the Federal Reserve signals a possible 50 basis point rate hike in December, the market will see a mitigating rebound.\"</p><p>come from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Matt Fleury of the equities department said, \"If Powell is 'dovish' this week and doesn't display the same strong stance as at the Jackson Hole meeting, from a technical perspective, there's little that can stop this rebound—moving objects continue to move. But if Powell expresses support for maintaining hawkish monetary policy, it will be an excellent short-selling opportunity.\"</p><p>Ellen Zentner Leadership<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Economists have said that FOMC members such as Powell will retain all options in December. Although some data indicate further economic weakness, inflation remains at historically high levels. Plagued by past lessons and criticized for acting too slowly to address price pressures, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been reluctant to pin his hopes on a slowdown in market inflation expectations, giving him no reason to ease policy.</p><p><b>Rising credit market default expectations have forced the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy.</b></p><p>It is worth noting that 54% of respondents said that as rising borrowing costs and the resulting economic downturn erode corporate profits, the difficulties in the credit market and rising default rates are becoming increasingly concerning for investors. Corporate debt pressures have outweighed concerns about liquidity shortages in the U.S. Treasury Bond. However, after a year of sharp declines in bond prices, liquidity shortages in the U.S. Treasury Bond market are approaching levels seen during the 2020 crisis, raising concerns about market functioning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6744bd9400b6f10daeba40e0321d86\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What are you most worried about? —The survey results show that most investors are concerned about credit market defaults.</b></p><p>The shelving of leveraged buyout financing, plummeting issuances, and soaring yields have recently raised concerns about the dysfunction of corporate bonds. With more cracks appearing, Asian markets have suddenly returned to the spotlight, and the prospect of default looks very grim. Growing concerns about the credit market—long seen as a canary that foreshadows an economic recession—will only increase investors' expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/819699.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/819699.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2279808891","content_text":"几个月以来，投资者一直在急切地等待美联储激进的加息政策何时能够转向温和。但现在，至少对于一些押注美联储长期维持鹰派政策的交易员来说，这一转向有可能来得太早了。智通财经APP了解到，MLIV  Pulse的最新调查显示，如果美联储主席鲍威尔在本周的新闻发布会上释放出任何“鸽派”信号，他都有可能会让部分投资者瞬间惊慌失措。市场加大力度押注美联储放缓加息步伐在上一周接受调查的250名受访者中，近一半比例群体表示，他们已在11月1日至2日的美联储会议前买入美元，约78%的人预计两年期美国国债收益率将上升。这些押注在美联储激进的紧缩政策中取得了良好的效果，但如果鲍威尔建议在12月将利率上调50个基点，或在2023年初将利率上调25个基点，之后结束美联储的加息周期，这些押注者或将付出代价。2年期美债收益率年底前的峰值将是多少? 受访者为专业投资者与散户市场普遍预计美联储将在11月2日加息75个基点，以对抗持续的通胀环境，这一点市场基本上彻底定价。然而，过于激进的紧缩行动可能将美国推入经济衰退，导致美国国债出现有记录以来最严重的年度跌幅，而股市有可能出现2008年以来的最大跌幅。因此，本周市场关注的重点不是加息幅度——加息75个基点可谓“板上钉钉”事件，而是美联储主席鲍威尔对于货币政策前景发表的言论。可以肯定的是，市场对美联储释放鸽派信号的预期不断升温，这也是上周标普500指数大幅反弹的重要原因。目前，市场对于美联储12月加息50个基点的押注力度已超过75个基点。芝商所FedWatch工具显示，当前市场预计，市场对于美联储利率峰值区间以及见顶时间的预期均有所降温。峰值区间由此前的5%-5.25%降至4.75%-5%，利率见顶的时间由此前的5月提前至3月。在接受调查的受访者中，许多群体在美联储会议前既没有购买短期国债，也没有购买长期国债。但有超过60%的受访者认为一个月后彭博美元现货指数会走高。这表明，如果出现加息放缓的强烈信号，货币和固定收益市场可能会发生重大反应。鲍威尔本周若意外“放鸽”，美股有望继续反弹来自MAPsignals的首席投资策略师Alec  Young在接受采访时表示:“这些数据确实证明，美联储有可能暂停行动。”市场希望如此，如果我们真的实现了，市场就会反弹，因为仍然有很多人对他们持怀疑态度。”美联储同行最近的举动表明，并非不可能出现温和的意外。加拿大央行和澳大利亚联储近期上调基准利率的幅度均低于经济学家和交易员的普遍预期。投资者也认为欧洲央行未来的政策步伐可能没有那么激进。一些交易员已经看到了足够多的迹象，试图提前软化美联储的鹰派论调。10月份的美元指数即将出现5月以来的首次月度下跌，尽管一些科技巨头的业绩令人失望，但标普500指数已从本月早些时候的阶段性低点(10月13日标普500指数触及3491)反弹约10%。Wealth Enhancement Group高级副总裁兼金融顾问Nicole  Webb在接受采访时表示:“如果美联储释放出在12月有可能加息50个基点的信号，市场将出现缓解性反弹。”来自高盛股票业务部门的Matt  Fleury表示：“如果鲍威尔本周‘放鸽’，并且没有表现出杰克逊霍尔会议上那样的强势态度，从技术面的角度来看，几乎没有什么可以阻止这一反弹——运动的物体继续保持运动状态。但如果鲍威尔表达出对于维持鹰派货币政策的支持态度，这将是一个绝佳的做空机会。”Ellen  Zentner领导的摩根士丹利经济学家曾表示，鲍威尔等FOMC成员将在12月保留所有的选择权。虽然一些数据显示经济进一步疲弱，但通胀仍处于历史高位。由于受到过去教训的困扰，又因应对价格压力的行动太迟而受到指责，美联储主席鲍威尔一直不愿寄希望于市场的通胀预期放缓，因此也就没有理由放松政策。信贷市场违约预期上行，美联储不得不调整政策?值得注意的是，有54%的受访者表示，随着借贷成本上升以及随之而来的经济低迷侵蚀企业利润，信贷市场的困境和违约率上升正成为投资者日益担心的问题。企业债务的压力超过了对美国国债流动性紧张的担忧，不过，在经历了一年的债券价格大幅下跌后，美国国债市场的流动性紧张已接近2020年危机的水平，引发了人们对市场运转的担忧。你最担心什么?——调查结果显示多数投资者担忧信贷市场违约杠杆收购融资的搁置、发行量暴跌和收益率飙升，最近引发了人们对企业债券功能失调的担忧。随着更多裂缝的出现，亚洲市场突然回到了人们的关注焦点，违约的前景看起来非常严峻。对于信贷市场——长期以来被视为预示经济衰退的金丝雀，日益增长的担忧，只会不断增加投资者对美联储调整政策的预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".DJI":1,"SDS":0.6,"QID":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1,"DOG":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".IXIC":1,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915363395,"gmtCreate":1664960316517,"gmtModify":1676537536139,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915363395","repostId":"2273971138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273971138","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664952671,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273971138?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 14:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US stocks have a strong start to the fourth quarter; is this really about to turn from a bear market to a bull market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273971138","media":"第一财经","summary":"投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？　　经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。　　统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？　　美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线，工厂订单月率继续回落。","content":"<p><div>Will investors' expectations of a turning point in the Federal Reserve's policy become a reality? After a difficult third quarter, US stocks rebounded strongly in October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 1,600 points in two trading days, while the S&P 500 rose nearly 6%. The \"bad news\" of poor economic data is beginning to be seen as \"good news\" that the Federal Reserve may be shifting its policy, and market risk appetite is rapidly recovering. Statistics show that the fourth quarter is often the beginning of the end of the US stock market bear market. Will history repeat itself this time? The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will \"ease its stance.\" The US ISM manufacturing index fell to a 28-month low of 50.9 in September, further approaching the expansion-contraction threshold...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks have a strong start to the fourth quarter; is this really about to turn from a bear market to a bull market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks have a strong start to the fourth quarter; is this really about to turn from a bear market to a bull market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-05 14:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Will investors' expectations of a turning point in the Federal Reserve's policy become a reality? After a difficult third quarter, US stocks rebounded strongly in October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 1,600 points in two trading days, while the S&P 500 rose nearly 6%. The \"bad news\" of poor economic data is beginning to be seen as \"good news\" that the Federal Reserve may be shifting its policy, and market risk appetite is rapidly recovering. Statistics show that the fourth quarter is often the beginning of the end of the US stock market bear market. Will history repeat itself this time? The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will \"ease its stance.\" The US ISM manufacturing index fell to a 28-month low of 50.9 in September, further approaching the expansion-contraction threshold...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273971138","content_text":"投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？市场押注美联储将“松口”美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线，工厂订单月率继续回落。与此同时，美国上月的职位空缺从之前的1120万降至1010万，这被认为随着经济放缓工作机会正在变少，炙手可热的劳动力市场可能面临降温。疲软的经济前景令外界开始削减美联储大幅加息的押注，受此影响，各期限美债收益率全线回落，基准10年期国债收益率降至3.583%，上周该项收益率一度突破4%，美元指数一度逼近110关口，较上周创下的20年高位回落下跌超3.5%。与此同时，周二澳大利亚联储意外仅加息25基点，以及上周英国央行入市干预，令政策放松预期持续发酵。德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）表示，虽然股市肯定已达到超卖状态，但“对央行可能很快转向更温和立场的猜测越来越多”也有助于提振市场情绪。根据芝商所CME利率观察工具FedWatch，预计年内剩余两次会议加息125基点的概率为60%，高于上周的47%，同时本轮加息周期终点有望在明年3月出现，利率终值预期回落至4.43%。RBC Capital Markets首席美国经济学家波切利（Tom Porcelli）表示：“投资者关注的是，在市场面临诸多压力的情况下，美联储是否会坚持所有这些关于掩盖通胀的言论。毫无疑问，美联储希望控制通胀。”他分析道：“更大的问题是，在通货膨胀恢复到他们满意的水平之前，其他因素是否会影响他们的计划？”历史数据也显示，10月开始的四季度往往是美股“转折点”。Stock Trader’s Almanac 的数据显示，二战后美股熊市中有超过70%在10月结束。此外，2022年也是美国中期选举年，今年选举将于11月8日举行。统计发现，中期选举年的10月表现尤为出色。同时，中期选举年的第四季度与大选年前第一和第二季度，是市场连续三个季度表现最好的季度。这期间，道琼斯工业指数平均涨幅为19.3%，标准普尔500指数涨幅为20.0%（自1949年以来），纳斯达克指数为29.3%（自1971年以来）。财富管理公司Stifel首席股票策略师班尼斯特（Barry Bannister）预计，标准普尔500指数正在触底，市场在今年第四季度至2023年初之间将出现积极的催化剂。反弹持续性有待观察虽然股指上涨带来了乐观情绪，但也有不少机构认为，消极的经济基本面可能压倒季节性趋势。Ameriprise Financial首席市场策略师萨林迪恩（Anthony Saglindene）表示，在历史上的某些时期，10月份可能会引发华尔街的恐慌，包括1987年和1929年的两场动荡。 “我认为，如果股市经历了非常困难的一年，季节性因素都应该予以折中，因为还有其他一些宏观因素在影响市场，你需要更清楚地了解那些推低股市的宏观因素。”他说。富国银行也发出警告称，随着对美国潜在衰退的警告不断增加，有关美联储转向可能性的传言再次出现，这表明投资者有可能“再次低估美联储在寻求解决通胀问题时的决心”。摩根士丹利首席股票策略师威尔逊（Mike Wilson）本周继续预警美股跌势将持续到年底，部分原因是全球主要经济体的美元供应减少，即使短期出现反弹，接下来股票、债券、大宗商品和货币的波动性可能会继续上升。威尔逊表示，问题在于，随着利率持续上升，美联储不断缩减其资产负债表，它可能会在世界某些地方，甚至在美国引发危机。这是因为更高的利率使公司和家庭借贷成本更高，从而拖累美国经济，而美元走强则使新兴经济体更难偿还以美元计价的债务。威尔逊认为，流动性问题已经开始浮出水面。“美元对风险市场的走向非常重要，这就是为什么我们如此密切地跟踪M2的增长， 美国、欧元区和日本等主要经济体的M2在2021达到峰值，此后下降了4万亿美元。跟踪这些经济体的货币供应变化率很重要，因为这往往与股市走势密切相关。截至目前，美联储并未释放有关货币政策力度调整的信号，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席布雷纳德在内的多位官员均在近期讲话中表示，不会冒险提前降息，因为担心通胀可能变得更加根深蒂固。威尔逊表示，无论如何，在美联储最终转向之前，股市可能会走低，不过对这一政策变化的预期可能足以引发股市大幅但短暂的反弹。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"DJX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"QQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DXD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835620707,"gmtCreate":1629713196509,"gmtModify":1676530108049,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835620707","repostId":"1197421899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197421899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629700881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197421899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is imminent?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197421899","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积","content":"<p><i>According to Ricardo, author of \"Currency Wars,\" accurately predicting when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be is an impossible task for anyone. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Before we knew it, a new front in the currency war had loomed on the horizon. Most observers had not yet noticed it because the situation had not yet evolved to the point where the parties involved were openly manipulating monetary policy without restraint, and that day was not far off, perhaps as early as the beginning of 2022.</p><p>This conclusion comes from the renowned investor and economist Jim Rickards. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experiences—he worked on Wall Street for decades, starting as a lawyer, serving as legal counsel to a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial crisis, participating in the Federal Reserve-led rescue operation that prevented major damage to the U.S. financial system, and after entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare advisor to the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to a wide range of investors as the author of best-selling financial books, with his 2012 book, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, enjoying particularly widespread influence. The aforementioned warning issued by such a currency war expert is naturally not to be taken lightly. In a recently published article, Ricardo elaborates on his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, the world is likely to experience a major market disruption, resulting in a sharp rise in the dollar's exchange rate against other major currencies. In this situation, the United States will suffer a double blow: in addition to the pain caused by market disruption, a sharp rise in the dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related jobs. In this situation, the US Treasury Department will most likely take action to weaken the dollar, and the currency war will thus begin.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic landscape on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is that since 2010, the world has been engaged in a hidden, low-intensity currency war—after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, then-US President Obama began to weaken the dollar in order to stimulate the economy.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that a weaker dollar will inevitably hurt the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they clearly don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its objective merits. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the US economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world can remain unaffected.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure the continued recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new recession. This time it was Europe that was unlucky; the United States and other economies around the world did not suffer much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that, around the same time, gold prices surged to all-time highs, and the euro exchange rate also surged. As for the US economy, needless to say, it received much-needed support as a result.</p><p>Only after that did the United States begin to show goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the euro-dollar exchange rate had dropped to $1.05 per euro. The Americans' assessment at the time was that their economy had become strong enough to withstand the impact of a weaker euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to maneuver and drive the Eurozone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar cross-rate has largely fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the euro exchange rate against the dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war is not necessarily limited to the fact that both participants or all parties are fighting blindly, causing drastic fluctuations in cross-exchange rates and extreme valuations. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners—in other words, war can still break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, while the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar soon as part of its economic rescue plan, the dollar will initially experience a strong rally in the short term. Why is that?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the matter is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department currently do not truly understand the U.S. economy, or more precisely, they do not know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As is well known, the 6.5% growth rate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter was lower than widely expected, but the real economic situation is even worse than the numbers suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, which read 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% in June, while it is well known that the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that the growth prospects were significantly weakened in the short three months of the second quarter. This also shows that if economic growth was relatively strong in April and May, then the actual performance in the last month, June, was actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This clearly makes people increasingly worried about the upcoming third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, in addition to the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time also have many worrying aspects. For example, imports are booming because Americans are freely using government stimulus checks.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which also illustrates that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far worse than that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply have no appetite to eat much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to worsen.</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months, starting in October 2020, private sector income grew virtually zero. Seeing these things alone is terrifying, but considering that government subsidies that support personal income are expiring one after another makes one inevitably more pessimistic about the future.</p><p>The disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered the countdown. The order prohibiting landlords from evicting tenants is only a few dozen days away, and it has also been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP) loans have expired. In conclusion, a new plan to distribute checks on a large scale is unlikely to emerge in the short term.</p><p>Now that the government's wave of cash distribution has reached its final stage, and at the same time, personal income is stagnating and exports are declining, what can be expected to continue to grow in the US GDP in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November, when the third-quarter GDP report is released, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is performing. Furthermore, by then they will most likely have already experienced several consecutive months of bad news regarding inflation and employment data.</p><p>The trouble is that by then it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn. Furthermore, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democrats and the White House will be in complete panic, and then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury Department do whatever it takes to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic behind the dollar's weakness in 2022. So why did the US dollar show strength before this?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is already underway. Crises like this certainly don't happen overnight; it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how serious the situation has become.</p><p>Here are some warning signs of global financial stress worth noting:</p><p>—Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. This does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but rather that the banking systems of these countries urgently need to obtain US dollars. In order to exchange them for US dollars, they are willing to painfully sell US Treasury bonds. This reluctant action shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>—Some specific euro futures curves have inverted slightly, forming a so-called spot premium. This indicates that banks and large financial institutions expect the Eurozone's interest rate trend to be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy is likely to experience a recession in the long term.</p><p>—Since March, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and has fallen significantly. This suggests that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investments out of fear, and they expect future economic growth to slow, easing inflationary pressures and even potentially leading to a recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis truly arrives, global investors will inevitably desperately seek safety, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly at that time.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is imminent?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is imminent?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>According to Ricardo, author of \"Currency Wars,\" accurately predicting when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be is an impossible task for anyone. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Before we knew it, a new front in the currency war had loomed on the horizon. Most observers had not yet noticed it because the situation had not yet evolved to the point where the parties involved were openly manipulating monetary policy without restraint, and that day was not far off, perhaps as early as the beginning of 2022.</p><p>This conclusion comes from the renowned investor and economist Jim Rickards. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experiences—he worked on Wall Street for decades, starting as a lawyer, serving as legal counsel to a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial crisis, participating in the Federal Reserve-led rescue operation that prevented major damage to the U.S. financial system, and after entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare advisor to the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to a wide range of investors as the author of best-selling financial books, with his 2012 book, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, enjoying particularly widespread influence. The aforementioned warning issued by such a currency war expert is naturally not to be taken lightly. In a recently published article, Ricardo elaborates on his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, the world is likely to experience a major market disruption, resulting in a sharp rise in the dollar's exchange rate against other major currencies. In this situation, the United States will suffer a double blow: in addition to the pain caused by market disruption, a sharp rise in the dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related jobs. In this situation, the US Treasury Department will most likely take action to weaken the dollar, and the currency war will thus begin.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic landscape on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is that since 2010, the world has been engaged in a hidden, low-intensity currency war—after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, then-US President Obama began to weaken the dollar in order to stimulate the economy.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that a weaker dollar will inevitably hurt the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they clearly don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its objective merits. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the US economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world can remain unaffected.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure the continued recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new recession. This time it was Europe that was unlucky; the United States and other economies around the world did not suffer much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that, around the same time, gold prices surged to all-time highs, and the euro exchange rate also surged. As for the US economy, needless to say, it received much-needed support as a result.</p><p>Only after that did the United States begin to show goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the euro-dollar exchange rate had dropped to $1.05 per euro. The Americans' assessment at the time was that their economy had become strong enough to withstand the impact of a weaker euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to maneuver and drive the Eurozone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar cross-rate has largely fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the euro exchange rate against the dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war is not necessarily limited to the fact that both participants or all parties are fighting blindly, causing drastic fluctuations in cross-exchange rates and extreme valuations. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners—in other words, war can still break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, while the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar soon as part of its economic rescue plan, the dollar will initially experience a strong rally in the short term. Why is that?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the matter is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department currently do not truly understand the U.S. economy, or more precisely, they do not know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As is well known, the 6.5% growth rate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter was lower than widely expected, but the real economic situation is even worse than the numbers suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, which read 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% in June, while it is well known that the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that the growth prospects were significantly weakened in the short three months of the second quarter. This also shows that if economic growth was relatively strong in April and May, then the actual performance in the last month, June, was actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This clearly makes people increasingly worried about the upcoming third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, in addition to the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time also have many worrying aspects. For example, imports are booming because Americans are freely using government stimulus checks.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which also illustrates that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far worse than that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply have no appetite to eat much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to worsen.</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months, starting in October 2020, private sector income grew virtually zero. Seeing these things alone is terrifying, but considering that government subsidies that support personal income are expiring one after another makes one inevitably more pessimistic about the future.</p><p>The disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered the countdown. The order prohibiting landlords from evicting tenants is only a few dozen days away, and it has also been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP) loans have expired. In conclusion, a new plan to distribute checks on a large scale is unlikely to emerge in the short term.</p><p>Now that the government's wave of cash distribution has reached its final stage, and at the same time, personal income is stagnating and exports are declining, what can be expected to continue to grow in the US GDP in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November, when the third-quarter GDP report is released, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is performing. Furthermore, by then they will most likely have already experienced several consecutive months of bad news regarding inflation and employment data.</p><p>The trouble is that by then it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn. Furthermore, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democrats and the White House will be in complete panic, and then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury Department do whatever it takes to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic behind the dollar's weakness in 2022. So why did the US dollar show strength before this?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is already underway. Crises like this certainly don't happen overnight; it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how serious the situation has become.</p><p>Here are some warning signs of global financial stress worth noting:</p><p>—Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. This does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but rather that the banking systems of these countries urgently need to obtain US dollars. In order to exchange them for US dollars, they are willing to painfully sell US Treasury bonds. This reluctant action shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>—Some specific euro futures curves have inverted slightly, forming a so-called spot premium. This indicates that banks and large financial institutions expect the Eurozone's interest rate trend to be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy is likely to experience a recession in the long term.</p><p>—Since March, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and has fallen significantly. This suggests that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investments out of fear, and they expect future economic growth to slow, easing inflationary pressures and even potentially leading to a recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis truly arrives, global investors will inevitably desperately seek safety, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly at that time.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf6fcde93937ee1cea8212ac47e8628","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197421899","content_text":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n\n\n不知不觉间，一条货币战争的全新战线已经隐隐出现在地平线上，多数观察家之所以尚未注意到，只不过因为局面还没有演变到参与各方已经毫无忌惮地公然操控货币政策的那个地步，而那一天却也为时不远了，也许2022年年初就会来到。\n这个结论来自著名投资人、经济学家里卡兹（Jim Rickards）。里卡兹是一位拥有万花筒般经历的人物——他在华尔街打拼数十年，最初是律师出身，在亚洲金融风暴期间恰好担任对冲基金长期资产管理公司的法律顾问，参与了推动联储主导的救援行动，使美国金融系统避免了重大损害，入行后，他又自学经济学，成为金融风险研究专家，并担任五角大楼金融战顾问。\n不过，里卡兹最为广大投资者所熟知的身份，还是财经畅销书籍作者，2012年出版的《货币战争》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）尤其享有广泛影响。这样一位货币战争专家发出了前述的预警，自然让人不敢等闲视之。在最新发布的文章当中，里卡兹阐述了自己在这个问题上的看法，以下即他的文章全文。\n不久之后，这个世界大概率会经历一轮重大的市场破坏，其结果就是，美元相对于其他主要货币的汇率大幅度走高。在这种情况下，美国就将遭受双重痛苦的打击，即市场破坏带来的痛苦之外，美元急剧走强还会对美国出口，以及出口相关的就业机会构成严重冲击，在这种情况下，美国财政部就大概率会出手削弱美元了，而货币战争的大幕也将就此拉开。\n下面就来仔细分析一下这番论说所依据的宏观经济图景。\n事实就是，从2010年开始，这个世界就进入了一场隐形的低烈度货币战争当中——在2007年至2008年的全球金融危机之后，为了刺激经济，时任美国总统奥巴马开始了削弱美元的操作。\n白宫和财政部都清楚地知道，美元趋向疲软，必然会损害到欧洲和日本的经济增长前景，但是他们对此显然根本就不在乎。当然，这种想法客观上也自有其道理，毕竟美国是全球最大的经济体，如果美国经济陷入衰退，世界其他主要经济体也没有一家可以独善其身。\n在2007年至2009年罕见的大衰退之后，要确保美国经济持续复苏，避开新一轮的衰退，削弱美元就变成了重中之重的关键任务。这一次倒霉的是欧洲，美国和世界其他经济体并没有遭受太大的苦难。\n货币战争暂时休战\n美国人的政策果然奏效了。到了2011年8月，联储的贸易加权指数显示，美元汇率跌到了历史最低点。完全可以理解的是，大致就在同时，黄金价格冲上了历史最高点，欧元汇率也猛涨。至于美国经济则不必说，由此得到了急需的支撑。\n在那之后，美国才开始对欧洲释放出善意，允许美元适度走强。到了2016年10月，欧元对美元汇率降低到了1欧元兑换1.05美元。美国人当时的判断是，自己的经济已经达成了足够的强势，已经完全经得起欧元走低的冲击，有足够的空间让欧洲人去操作，推动欧元区经济反弹。\n从那之后，欧元对美元的交叉汇率基本上都是在窄幅振荡。比如，2017年7月1日，欧元对美元汇率为1欧元兑换1.18美元，几乎和四年后的今天几乎是完全一致。\n在这里，大家首先必须明白的是，所谓货币战争，不见得就只有参与双方或者各方赤膊上阵，使得交叉汇率剧烈波动，估值极端的这一种面目。货币战争也有相对风平浪静的周期，而且这样的周期还能够持续很长的时间。\n还有一点，货币战争之所以会爆发，最根本的原因不外乎债务过高，而经济增长不足，只要这种根本原因一直存在下去，总归会有这个或者那个经济体试图通过让自己的货币相对于主要贸易伙伴贬值来刺激经济增长——换言之，战争依然随时都有爆发的可能性。\n有趣的是，虽然说起来，美国很可能会在不久后着手迅速削弱美元，来作为自己的经济援救计划的一部分，但是在短期内，美元首先还会有一波坚挺的行情。这是为什么呢？\n摇摇欲坠的复苏\n问题的关键首先就在于，目前白宫和美国财政部其实并不真正了解美国经济，或者更加明确地说，他们并不知道美国经济当下疲软到了怎样的地步。众所周知，美国第二季度国内生产总值6.5%的增长速度是低于外界的广泛预期的，但是真实经济的情况，甚至要比数字所显示的更加糟糕。\n亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器，其读数4月间还是13%，到了6月就降至7.5%，而众所周知，第二季度的真实经济增速是6.5%。这也就意味着，在第二季度这短短的三个月时间当中，增长前景就遭到了大幅度的削弱。这同时还说明，如果4月和5月的经济增长相对较为强势的话，那么最后一个月份6月的实际表现其实还不及季度平均的6.5%。\n这显然让人不能不对接下来的第三季度越发忧心忡忡。\n与此同时，除了万众瞩目的国内生产总值数字之外，其他同时发布的经济数据也颇多让人担心的地方。比如，由于美国人都在放手使用政府派出的刺激支票，进口一片旺盛景象。\n可是在出口一侧，故事便完全不同了，这也正说明了世界其他许多经济体的表现，其实远不及美国。用最简单直白的话来说，这些其他经济体，许多处境都非常糟糕，因此他们根本没有胃口吃下多少美国进口商品。\n局面还在继续恶化\n更加具有戏剧性的是，美国人的个人收入年化下滑速度达到了30%。从2020年10月算起，长达八个月的时间之内，私营部门收入实质上是零增长。单单看到这些已经很可怕了，而要再想到，支撑着个人收入局面的政府补贴正在一项又一项地次第到期，就让人不能不对前景越发悲观。\n失业救济的额外补贴，其消失已经进入了倒计时。禁止房主驱逐租客的命令也剩不了几十天了，而且还被贴上了违宪的标签。与此同时，薪资保障计划（PPP）的贷款已经到期了。总而言之，短期之内，也看不到大规模派发支票的新计划出炉的可能性。\n现在，政府派发现金的大潮已经到了最后阶段，而与此同时，个人收入停滞不前，出口遭遇下滑，那么，在2021年下半年，美国国内生产总值想要继续增长，还有什么可以指望？\n到了今年11月，第三季度国内生产总值报告出炉时，拜登总统和耶伦财长就会知道经济表现到底有多糟糕了。此外，到那时，他们大概率还已经领教了连续几个月通货膨胀面和就业数据面的坏消息。\n麻烦在于，到那时候再想办法去阻止经济猛烈下滑的势头，也注定将是为时已晚。还有，从政治视角看，那时距离2022年中期选举，也只剩下了不到一年。民主党方面和白宫将彻底陷入恐慌，而到那时，他们唯一能做的就是要求财政部采取一切必要手段削弱美元。\n这正是美元将在2022年变得疲软的根本逻辑。那么，在此之前，美元为何会呈现出强势呢？\n全球流动性危机\n答案是，一场全球流动性危机其实已经在进行之中了。类似这样的危机当然不可能是一夜之间发生的，而通常至少要在幕后酝酿一两年的时间，才会让市场和大众充分意识到现状到底已经变得有多严峻。\n下面就是一些值得注意的全球金融压力预警信号：\n——许多国家的政府都在减持美国国债。这当然并不是意味着美元遭到了这些国家的嫌弃，而是意味着，这些国家的银行系统急需获得美元，他们为了换取美元，已经不惜忍痛卖出美债了，而这种不得已的操作正说明他们的问题已经严重到了怎样的地步。\n——一些特定的欧元期货曲线已经略微反转，形成了所谓现货溢价。这就说明，银行和大金融机构预计，欧元区的利率走势是，短期内利率走高，而长期内利率走低，前者说明短期内金融压力将增大，后者说明长期来看，经济大概率将出现衰退。\n——自从3月以来，十年期美国国债收益率水平持续下滑，已经下跌了不少。这就说明几乎全体交易者都在因为恐惧情绪而追逐品质更高的投资对象，而且大家预计，未来经济增长将会减速，让通货膨胀压力减轻，甚至可能发生衰退。\n当然，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n不必说，当这场危机真正到来时，全球投资者必然会拼命追求安全，而美元和黄金届时就将大幅度走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925207370,"gmtCreate":1672024526390,"gmtModify":1676538623600,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925207370","repostId":"1190601149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969768840,"gmtCreate":1668525036981,"gmtModify":1676538070893,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969768840","repostId":"1132358384","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917982868,"gmtCreate":1665412098054,"gmtModify":1676537601914,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917982868","repostId":"1105112775","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969964888,"gmtCreate":1668321092644,"gmtModify":1676538041336,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969964888","repostId":"1188896197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188896197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668306780,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188896197?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-13 10:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bad news for the market: US Democrats lock in control of the Senate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188896197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这意味着，在拜登任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。随着美国民主党锁定参议院控制权，市场的期待落空了。据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月12日，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This means that for the remaining two years of Biden's term, Democrats will be able to approve judicial nominations, executive branch appointments, and set legislative agendas, even if Republicans control the House of Representatives. As the Democratic Party locked in control of the Senate, market expectations were dashed.</p><p>According to CCTV News, on November 12 local time, Katherine Cortez-Masto, the Democratic candidate for the Nevada Senate, defeated her Republican rival Adam Laxalt with 48.7% of the vote to win the Nevada Senate election.</p><p>The day before, Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Kelly won the*in Arizona, defeating former U.S. President Donald Trump's Republican candidate, Blake Masters.</p><p>To date, the Democratic Party has won 50 seats in the Senate, gaining control of the Senate.</p><p><b>For Biden, maintaining the Democratic advantage in the Senate is crucial. This means that for the remaining two years of his term, Democrats can approve judicial nominations, executive branch appointments, and set the legislative agenda, even if Republicans control the House of Representatives.</b></p><p>As of now. Who will win the House of Representatives is still unknown, but preliminary results favor the Republicans. Currently, the Republicans have 211 seats, while the Democrats have 203 seats, needing 218 seats to become a majority.<b>Analysis points out that political disadvantages make the Democratic Party's chances of winning the House of Representatives very slim.</b></p><p>If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives, they are expected to challenge Biden’s policies, such as possibly using a showdown over the debt ceiling to force spending cuts.</p><p>Market expectations fell short</p><p>The market expects a \"complete victory\" for the Republican Party in the US midterm elections.</p><p>The market expects the best-case scenario to be for Republicans to gain control of both houses, which would prevent Democrats from enacting more new bills over the next two years and reduce uncertainty.</p><p>As Wall Street Insights mentioned earlier, what really matters to the market may not be which political party wins, but rather the checks and balances within the government.</p><p>Kim Forrest, Chief Investment Officer of Bokeh Capital Partners, said:</p><p>It's a good thing that the U.S. government is divided; the government can't get anything done, and there won't be any more uncertainty in the next two years. Businesses can operate when they understand the competitive landscape, and if Republicans control Congress during a Democratic presidency, that will bring some certainty to American businesses. LPL Financial strategists Barry Gilbert and Jeffrey Buchbinder wrote this week:</p><p>The biggest policy impact is that if we have a coalition government, it will be more difficult to pass any legislation... which will eliminate any significant risk of tax increases for households or businesses. A divided government is often good for the market. Data shows that since 1951, the S&P 500 has returned 17% annually under the split government, compared to an average return of 12%.</p><p>Splitting the government is not entirely a \"good thing\".</p><p>However, the impact of the shift in the balance of political power on stock prices is far less than the likelihood of a recession triggered by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Yardeni Research strategist Ed Yardeni points out that these political cycles are irrelevant if inflation does not slow significantly in the coming months.</p><p>On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policies did indeed trigger an economic recession, then a divided government means there will be no fiscal stimulus measures to stimulate economic growth. LPL Financial strategists wrote:</p><p>If a recession occurs, it may become more severe due to the smaller fiscal response.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bad news for the market: US Democrats lock in control of the Senate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBad news for the market: US Democrats lock in control of the Senate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-13 10:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This means that for the remaining two years of Biden's term, Democrats will be able to approve judicial nominations, executive branch appointments, and set legislative agendas, even if Republicans control the House of Representatives. As the Democratic Party locked in control of the Senate, market expectations were dashed.</p><p>According to CCTV News, on November 12 local time, Katherine Cortez-Masto, the Democratic candidate for the Nevada Senate, defeated her Republican rival Adam Laxalt with 48.7% of the vote to win the Nevada Senate election.</p><p>The day before, Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Kelly won the*in Arizona, defeating former U.S. President Donald Trump's Republican candidate, Blake Masters.</p><p>To date, the Democratic Party has won 50 seats in the Senate, gaining control of the Senate.</p><p><b>For Biden, maintaining the Democratic advantage in the Senate is crucial. This means that for the remaining two years of his term, Democrats can approve judicial nominations, executive branch appointments, and set the legislative agenda, even if Republicans control the House of Representatives.</b></p><p>As of now. Who will win the House of Representatives is still unknown, but preliminary results favor the Republicans. Currently, the Republicans have 211 seats, while the Democrats have 203 seats, needing 218 seats to become a majority.<b>Analysis points out that political disadvantages make the Democratic Party's chances of winning the House of Representatives very slim.</b></p><p>If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives, they are expected to challenge Biden’s policies, such as possibly using a showdown over the debt ceiling to force spending cuts.</p><p>Market expectations fell short</p><p>The market expects a \"complete victory\" for the Republican Party in the US midterm elections.</p><p>The market expects the best-case scenario to be for Republicans to gain control of both houses, which would prevent Democrats from enacting more new bills over the next two years and reduce uncertainty.</p><p>As Wall Street Insights mentioned earlier, what really matters to the market may not be which political party wins, but rather the checks and balances within the government.</p><p>Kim Forrest, Chief Investment Officer of Bokeh Capital Partners, said:</p><p>It's a good thing that the U.S. government is divided; the government can't get anything done, and there won't be any more uncertainty in the next two years. Businesses can operate when they understand the competitive landscape, and if Republicans control Congress during a Democratic presidency, that will bring some certainty to American businesses. LPL Financial strategists Barry Gilbert and Jeffrey Buchbinder wrote this week:</p><p>The biggest policy impact is that if we have a coalition government, it will be more difficult to pass any legislation... which will eliminate any significant risk of tax increases for households or businesses. A divided government is often good for the market. Data shows that since 1951, the S&P 500 has returned 17% annually under the split government, compared to an average return of 12%.</p><p>Splitting the government is not entirely a \"good thing\".</p><p>However, the impact of the shift in the balance of political power on stock prices is far less than the likelihood of a recession triggered by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Yardeni Research strategist Ed Yardeni points out that these political cycles are irrelevant if inflation does not slow significantly in the coming months.</p><p>On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policies did indeed trigger an economic recession, then a divided government means there will be no fiscal stimulus measures to stimulate economic growth. LPL Financial strategists wrote:</p><p>If a recession occurs, it may become more severe due to the smaller fiscal response.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674816\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674816","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188896197","content_text":"这意味着，在拜登任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。随着美国民主党锁定参议院控制权，市场的期待落空了。据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月12日，美国内华达州国会参议员民主党候选人凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托以48.7%的得票率击败其共和党竞争对手亚当·拉克索尔特，赢得内华达州国会参议员选举。此前一天，美国民主党参议员马克·凯利在亚利桑那州赢得连任，击败美国前总统特朗普支持的共和党竞选者布莱克·马斯特斯。截至目前，民主党已经取得了国会参议院的50席，取得参议院控制权。对于拜登来说，保持民主党在参议院的优势至关重要。这意味着，在他任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。截至目前。众议院“花落谁家”仍未揭晓，但初步结果倾向于共和党。目前共和党拥有211个席位，民主党拥有203个席位，需要218个席位才能成为多数。分析指出，政治上的不利因素使民主党赢得众议院的机会非常渺茫。如果共和党赢得对众议院的控制，预计共和党将对拜登的政策发起挑战，比如可能利用对债务上限的摊牌来迫使削减支出。市场期待落空对于美国此次中期选举，市场期待一个“全面胜利”的共和党。市场期望最好的情况是共和党取得两院控制权，这样就能阻止民主党在未来两年内颁布更多的新法案，减少不确定性。华尔街见闻稍早时候曾提到，对于市场而言，真正重要的或许不是哪一个政党获胜，而是政府内部的相互制衡。Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官Kim Forrest表示：美国政府分裂是件好事，政府什么事都做不成，未来两年也不会再有不确定性。当企业了解竞争环境时，它们就能运营，如果共和党人在民主党总统期间控制国会，那将给美国企业带来一些确定性。LPL Financial策略师Barry Gilbert and Jeffrey Buchbinder本周写道:最大的政策影响是，如果我们有一个混合政府，将更难通过任何立法......这将消除任何对家庭或企业增税的重大风险。分裂的政府往往利好市场。数据显示，自1951年以来，分裂政府下标普500指数的年回报率为17%，而平均回报率为12%。分裂政府也不完全是件“好事”不过，政治力量平衡的转变对股价的影响，远远小于美联储引发的衰退的可能性。Yardeni Research策略师Ed Yardeni指出，如果通胀在未来几个月没有明显放缓，那么这些政治周期都无关紧要。另外一方面，如果美联储激进的紧缩政策确实引发了经济衰退，那么分裂的政府意味着不会有财政刺激措施来刺激经济增长。LPL Financial策略师写道：如果发生了衰退，由于财政应对力度较小，衰退可能会越来越严重。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981125761,"gmtCreate":1666426133053,"gmtModify":1676537755754,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981125761","repostId":"1106604271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106604271","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666409026,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106604271?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-22 11:23","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"South Korea's real estate market is on the verge of collapse! Will it trigger another Asian financial crisis?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106604271","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"韩国正面临一场“迫在眉睫的房地产衰退”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Du Yu</p><p>As the South Korean financial market faces a triple whammy of stocks, bonds, and currencies, the South Korean real estate market, which once boomed thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, is teetering on the brink of collapse.</p><p><b>Nomura's Asia team asserts that the impending real estate market recession will force the Bank of Korea, which led rate hike in Asia, to cut interest rates earlier next year and shift to a monetary easing policy.</b>This goes against Wall Street's consensus expectations.</p><p>An article by a Wall Street Insights VIP member, \"South Korean Housing Prices: Both Success and Failure Due to COVID-19,\" mentions that the South Korean housing market is showing signs of contraction, with national housing prices falling for nine consecutive months, and apartment transaction volume in the first half of the year decreasing by 50.6% compared to the same period last year.</p><p>The Bank of Korea's rate hike since August last year has been one of the main reasons for the cooling of the housing market. Sluggish exports, population \"backflow\" in large cities, and declining purchasing power due to high inflation have also led to a sharp drop in demand. This creates a dilemma for the central bank: whether to \"reduce inflation\" or \"maintain growth\".</p><p>Nomura Economic researchers have made a pessimistic prediction that housing prices across South Korea will plummet by about 10% from their peak to their trough, while apartment prices in Seoul, the price benchmark for measuring the overall housing market, will plummet by 18%.</p><p>This would be greater than the cooling of the South Korean real estate market after the 2009-2014 financial crisis. A sharp cooling of the housing market will hit private consumption, pushing the South Korean economy into a deeper recession amid a weak global semiconductor industry and sluggish exports.</p><p>Despite Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong maintaining a hawkish stance, stating on Monday that terminal interest rates in this tightening cycle will be higher than 3.5%, meaning there is still at least 50 basis points of rate hike room, the Nomura team believes that...<b>There is a 65% chance that the Bank of Korea will \"rapidly shift to loose monetary policy earlier than market expectations next year,\" using sharp interest rate cuts to address the sharp decline in the domestic housing market.</b>：</p><p>\"Our view that South Korea will fall into a deep recession suggests that the Bank of Korea may shift its current focus from price stability to economic growth and financial stability in early 2023. Our view differs from that of other Wall Street analysts, namely that starting in the second quarter of 2023, the Bank of Korea will enter a monetary easing cycle ahead of schedule, with a total of 150 basis points of interest rate cuts next year and further cuts to 1% in 2024.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76613e4e20300bf0261d3a446befa80c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore,<b>The team recommends continuing to short the Korean won/US dollar exchange rate, as it may fall towards the 1500 mark by the end of November this year.</b>It is approaching the lowest level during the peak of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.</p><p>On Friday, October 21, the South Korean won fell below the 1430 mark against the US dollar, continuing to hit its lowest level since the beginning of 2009. Since the beginning of the year, it has fallen by 19%, ranking among the worst-performing currencies in Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275baa202786228d9df5d28cdaf7d2ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura reports that the real estate boom triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic is coming to an end. With declining housing affordability, rising financial costs are squeezing returns on housing investment, laying the foundation for a sluggish real estate market. South Korean housing prices are expected to fall sharply in the coming years and maintain their \"L-shaped recovery,\" exacerbating deflationary concerns. Falling housing prices may severely damage consumption through household cash flow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de840e7ae61f7edd99abf121013a0fb2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>To prevent the deflationary impact of falling housing asset prices from spreading to the real economy, the Bank of Korea may start cutting interest rates in May 2023, by 25 basis points each in May and July, then by 50 basis points in August, and again by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter of next year, bringing the policy rate below Nomura's expected neutral rate of 2%. The Bank of Korea may further lower its policy interest rate to 1% by the end of 2024.</p><p>Two other unlikely scenarios are: First, South Korea excessively tightens monetary policy to combat inflation (25% probability), which would cause it to maintain the Nomura terminal interest rate forecast of a policy rate higher than 3.25% until mid-2024, even if the Federal Reserve may begin an easing cycle in September 2023. The second is a more aggressive interest rate cut (with a 10% probability of occurrence). The Bank of Korea will begin to cut interest rates sharply from the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024 to catch up with the Federal Reserve's easing pace, cutting interest rates by a total of 250 basis points to the policy rate of 0.75%.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that on Wednesday, October 12, in order to defend the Korean won and stabilize inflation, the Bank of Korea resumed a sharp 50 basis point rate hike, raising the benchmark interest rate to 3% for the first time since October 2012, bringing the total to 250 basis points since August of last year. This highlights the urgency of curbing capital flight and the Bank of Korea's determination to combat inflation.</p><p>But like most central banks in rate hike, the Bank of Korea is facing a dilemma. If rate hike is not in place, rising prices will spur workers to demand higher wages, potentially triggering a wage-price spiral. In the event of a significant rate hike, higher interest rates could increase the pressure on households that have already accumulated record debt and plunge the economy into recession. With the implementation of the 50 basis point rate hike, concerns about the latter are rapidly increasing. Essentially, South Korea is facing a situation of internal and external troubles: obvious signs of economic recession and high debt pressure are internal troubles, while high commodity prices leading to increased imported inflationary pressures and the impact of overseas monetary policies are external troubles. This means that, in an increasingly complex international situation,<b>South Korea is very likely to be the starting point of the next round of Asian financial crisis</b>。</body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>South Korea's real estate market is on the verge of collapse! Will it trigger another Asian financial crisis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSouth Korea's real estate market is on the verge of collapse! Will it trigger another Asian financial crisis?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-22 11:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Du Yu</p><p>As the South Korean financial market faces a triple whammy of stocks, bonds, and currencies, the South Korean real estate market, which once boomed thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, is teetering on the brink of collapse.</p><p><b>Nomura's Asia team asserts that the impending real estate market recession will force the Bank of Korea, which led rate hike in Asia, to cut interest rates earlier next year and shift to a monetary easing policy.</b>This goes against Wall Street's consensus expectations.</p><p>An article by a Wall Street Insights VIP member, \"South Korean Housing Prices: Both Success and Failure Due to COVID-19,\" mentions that the South Korean housing market is showing signs of contraction, with national housing prices falling for nine consecutive months, and apartment transaction volume in the first half of the year decreasing by 50.6% compared to the same period last year.</p><p>The Bank of Korea's rate hike since August last year has been one of the main reasons for the cooling of the housing market. Sluggish exports, population \"backflow\" in large cities, and declining purchasing power due to high inflation have also led to a sharp drop in demand. This creates a dilemma for the central bank: whether to \"reduce inflation\" or \"maintain growth\".</p><p>Nomura Economic researchers have made a pessimistic prediction that housing prices across South Korea will plummet by about 10% from their peak to their trough, while apartment prices in Seoul, the price benchmark for measuring the overall housing market, will plummet by 18%.</p><p>This would be greater than the cooling of the South Korean real estate market after the 2009-2014 financial crisis. A sharp cooling of the housing market will hit private consumption, pushing the South Korean economy into a deeper recession amid a weak global semiconductor industry and sluggish exports.</p><p>Despite Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong maintaining a hawkish stance, stating on Monday that terminal interest rates in this tightening cycle will be higher than 3.5%, meaning there is still at least 50 basis points of rate hike room, the Nomura team believes that...<b>There is a 65% chance that the Bank of Korea will \"rapidly shift to loose monetary policy earlier than market expectations next year,\" using sharp interest rate cuts to address the sharp decline in the domestic housing market.</b>：</p><p>\"Our view that South Korea will fall into a deep recession suggests that the Bank of Korea may shift its current focus from price stability to economic growth and financial stability in early 2023. Our view differs from that of other Wall Street analysts, namely that starting in the second quarter of 2023, the Bank of Korea will enter a monetary easing cycle ahead of schedule, with a total of 150 basis points of interest rate cuts next year and further cuts to 1% in 2024.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76613e4e20300bf0261d3a446befa80c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore,<b>The team recommends continuing to short the Korean won/US dollar exchange rate, as it may fall towards the 1500 mark by the end of November this year.</b>It is approaching the lowest level during the peak of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.</p><p>On Friday, October 21, the South Korean won fell below the 1430 mark against the US dollar, continuing to hit its lowest level since the beginning of 2009. Since the beginning of the year, it has fallen by 19%, ranking among the worst-performing currencies in Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275baa202786228d9df5d28cdaf7d2ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura reports that the real estate boom triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic is coming to an end. With declining housing affordability, rising financial costs are squeezing returns on housing investment, laying the foundation for a sluggish real estate market. South Korean housing prices are expected to fall sharply in the coming years and maintain their \"L-shaped recovery,\" exacerbating deflationary concerns. Falling housing prices may severely damage consumption through household cash flow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de840e7ae61f7edd99abf121013a0fb2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>To prevent the deflationary impact of falling housing asset prices from spreading to the real economy, the Bank of Korea may start cutting interest rates in May 2023, by 25 basis points each in May and July, then by 50 basis points in August, and again by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter of next year, bringing the policy rate below Nomura's expected neutral rate of 2%. The Bank of Korea may further lower its policy interest rate to 1% by the end of 2024.</p><p>Two other unlikely scenarios are: First, South Korea excessively tightens monetary policy to combat inflation (25% probability), which would cause it to maintain the Nomura terminal interest rate forecast of a policy rate higher than 3.25% until mid-2024, even if the Federal Reserve may begin an easing cycle in September 2023. The second is a more aggressive interest rate cut (with a 10% probability of occurrence). The Bank of Korea will begin to cut interest rates sharply from the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024 to catch up with the Federal Reserve's easing pace, cutting interest rates by a total of 250 basis points to the policy rate of 0.75%.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that on Wednesday, October 12, in order to defend the Korean won and stabilize inflation, the Bank of Korea resumed a sharp 50 basis point rate hike, raising the benchmark interest rate to 3% for the first time since October 2012, bringing the total to 250 basis points since August of last year. This highlights the urgency of curbing capital flight and the Bank of Korea's determination to combat inflation.</p><p>But like most central banks in rate hike, the Bank of Korea is facing a dilemma. If rate hike is not in place, rising prices will spur workers to demand higher wages, potentially triggering a wage-price spiral. In the event of a significant rate hike, higher interest rates could increase the pressure on households that have already accumulated record debt and plunge the economy into recession. With the implementation of the 50 basis point rate hike, concerns about the latter are rapidly increasing. Essentially, South Korea is facing a situation of internal and external troubles: obvious signs of economic recession and high debt pressure are internal troubles, while high commodity prices leading to increased imported inflationary pressures and the impact of overseas monetary policies are external troubles. This means that, in an increasingly complex international situation,<b>South Korea is very likely to be the starting point of the next round of Asian financial crisis</b>。</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672971\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b9efd260d7a725fb1717eb0e932afb","relate_stocks":{"EWY":"韩国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672971","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1106604271","content_text":"作者：杜玉在韩国金融市场遭遇股债汇“三杀”的尴尬局面之际，曾得益于新冠疫情红利而高歌猛进的韩国楼市正摇摇欲坠。野村亚洲团队断言，迫在眉睫的房地产市场衰退，将迫使在亚洲率先加息的韩国央行明年更早降息并转向货币宽松政策，而这有悖于华尔街的共识预期。华尔街见闻VIP会员文章《韩国房价：成也新冠，败也新冠》提到，韩国楼市出现萎缩迹象，全国房价连续九个月下跌，上半年公寓成交量较去年同期下降50.6%。韩国央行自去年8月起加息是造成楼市降温的重要原因之一，出口低迷、大城市人口“逆流”和高通胀下购买力的下滑也导致需求锐减。这给央行制造了“降通胀”还是“保增长”的难题。野村经济研究员本次悲观预测，韩国全国房价将从峰值到谷底骤降约10%，衡量整体住房市场状况的价格基准——首尔公寓价格将暴跌18%。这会比2009-2014年金融危机之后韩国房地产市场降温的幅度更大。楼市急剧降温将打击私人消费，在全球半导体行业疲软和出口不振的同时，推动韩国经济陷入更深的衰退。尽管韩国央行行长李昌镛维持鹰派论调，周一还称本轮紧缩周期的终端利率将高于3.5%，等于还有至少50个基点的加息空间，但野村团队认为，有65%的可能性见证韩国央行“明年比市场预期更早地迅速转向宽松货币政策”，通过大幅降息来应对国内楼市的急剧下滑：“我们对韩国将陷入深度衰退的看法表明，韩国央行可能会在2023年初从当前对价格稳定的关注，转向经济增长和金融稳定。我们的观点与华尔街其他分析师不同，即从2023年二季度开始，韩国央行会提前进去货币宽松周期，明年共将降息150个基点，2024年进一步降息至1%。”因此，该团队建议继续做空韩元/美元，今年11月底前韩元汇率或跌向1500整数位，逼近2008-2009年全球金融危机高峰时期的最低水平。10月21日周五，韩元兑美元失守1430关口，持续刷新2009年初以来最低，年初至今累跌19%，位列亚洲表现最差货币之一。野村报告称，新冠疫情引发的房地产繁荣即将结束。在住房负担能力下降的情况下，不断上升的金融成本挤压了住房投资回报，为房地产市场的低迷奠定了基础，未来几年韩国房价将大幅下跌，并维持“L型复苏”的颓势不变，加剧通缩担忧。房价下跌或通过家庭现金流来重创消费。为防止楼市资产价格下跌的通缩冲击蔓延到实体经济，韩国央行可能从2023年5月开始降息，5月和7月各降息25个基点，随后在8月降息50个基点，明年四季度再度降息50个基点，令政策利率低于野村预期的中性利率2%水平。韩国央行或在2024年底将政策利率进一步降至1%。另有两种发生概率不大的假设场景是：一是韩国为对抗通胀而过度紧缩货币政策（发生概率25%），这将令其到2024年中旬前维持政策利率高于3.25%的野村终端利率预测，即便美联储可能在2023年9月开始宽松周期。第二是更激进地降息（发生概率10%），韩国央行从2023底或2024年初开始大幅降息，追赶美联储的宽松步伐，共降息250个基点至政策利率为0.75%。华尔街见闻曾提到，10月12日上周三，为捍卫韩元、平抑通胀，韩国央行重启50个基点的大幅加息，将基准利率自2012年10月以来首次升至3%，自去年8月以来共加息250个基点，凸显了遏制资本外逃的紧迫性以及韩国央行打击通胀的决心：但与绝大多数加息的央行一样，韩国央行正面临两难境地。如果加息不到位，不断上涨的物价将刺激工人要求更高的工资，可能引发工资-物价螺旋上升。若大幅加息，更高的利率或增加已经积累了创纪录债务的家庭的压力，并使经济陷入衰退。随着50基点的加息幅度落地，对于后者的担忧正快速升温。本质上来看，韩国正面临着内忧外患的局面：经济主体衰退迹象明显以及高企的债务压力，是内忧，大宗商品价格高企导致输入型通胀压力上升以及海外货币政策的冲击是外患。这也就是说，在日益复杂的国际形势下，韩国极有可能成为下一轮亚洲金融危机的起点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913504336,"gmtCreate":1664005454125,"gmtModify":1676537378751,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913504336","repostId":"1152251318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152251318","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664004912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152251318?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-24 15:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A \"perfect storm\" unfolds: Wall Street can't hold on any longer, and institutions are forced to reduce their positions.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152251318","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储激进加息引发连锁反应，跨资产波动率大幅飙升。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Ying</p><p>Over the past week, central banks' rate hike frenzy, the firing of the first shot in foreign exchange intervention, and the UK's new fiscal policy have created a massive wave in global financial markets, affecting almost all assets. Wall Street is also struggling to hold on, and institutions are considering reducing their positions and exiting the market.</p><p>Last week, U.S. stocks plummeted again, with the S&P 500 falling for the fifth consecutive trading day, dropping 4.7%. The bond and foreign exchange markets also experienced sharp fluctuations, with US Treasury yields surging to historic highs; The dollar also surged to a 20-year high, leading emerging market countries to face a debt crisis and forcing Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 1998.</p><p>Just yesterday, the British government introduced its strongest tax cut in history, causing the pound sterling and British bonds to plummet, the fastest drop in the past 40 years. This also triggered a series of chain reactions, dragging down silver and gold.</p><p>In the current situation where liquidity in both stocks and bonds is extremely scarce,<b>With the arrival of a tighter monetary policy, various forms of cross-asset fluctuations are inevitable.</b></p><p>Benjamin Dunn, president of Alpha Theory Advisors, said:</p><p>We are seeing a significant surge in cross-asset volatility, which will lead to accelerated deleveraging or de-risking across all asset classes. Soaring cross-asset volatility may force Wall Street to reduce its holdings and exit the market.</p><p>Institutions typically use risk models to assess their ability to cope with monetary tightening policies. If greater volatility affects Wall Street institutions and elsewhere, trading signals guiding professional investors on how to allocate funds will turn red, leading to further reductions in institutional positions and greater market volatility.</p><p>Christian Hoffmann, an Investment manager at Thornburg Investment Management, pointed out that most model standard deviation changes are larger than usual, and we have not yet seen a real liquidity crisis, but the market remains very fragile.</p><p>Currently, there is no obvious panic, but the potential danger is that a wave of selling could spread to other asset classes. Large asset management companies operate within a risk management framework,<b>Rising volatility often requires selling portfolio assets.</b>Referring to risk valuation models, this type of sell-off is called a VaR shock.</p><p>For Dunn, an analyst at investment consulting firm Alpha Theory, Friday's collapse of British bonds and the pound sterling is seen as a chain risk event that led to the collapse of assets such as oil and silver. UK 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest single-day gain on record after tax cuts raised concerns about inflation and aggressive rate hike. The pound plunged 3.5% to its lowest level since 1985, marking its third largest drop in two decades. Dunn believes,<b>This action looks like a forced liquidation exit.</b></p><p>Pessimism spread, and all assets were sold off.</p><p>The days of stable returns over the past decade will live up to their expectations, and turmoil has become the main theme today. Countries around the world are racing to increase their efforts to combat inflation at the expense of economic growth. Just this week, more than a dozen central banks tightened monetary policy, and some countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, were forced to rate hike to protect their peg to the dollar.</p><p>Affected by the global rate hike, the \"anchor of asset pricing\" has experienced a wide sell-off. The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds has climbed for 12 consecutive days, which is the first consecutive sell-off since 1976. The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds has hit a new high in more than ten years for five consecutive days. So far this year, US Treasury bonds and US stocks have fallen by far more than 20%.</p><p>As the market continues to decline, investors are avoiding almost all asset classes in favor of holding cash. In its latest research report, Bank of America cited data from EPFR Global, stating that as of the week ending September 21, Global equity funds saw outflows of $7.8 billion, bond funds saw outflows of $6.9 billion, and gold saw outflows of $400 million.<b>Cash inflows reached $30.3 billion.</b></p><p><b>Market sentiment has reached its most pessimistic state since the 2008 global financial crisis.</b>It also shifted from initial concerns about the economic recession to how long the pain would last.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A \"perfect storm\" unfolds: Wall Street can't hold on any longer, and institutions are forced to reduce their positions.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA \"perfect storm\" unfolds: Wall Street can't hold on any longer, and institutions are forced to reduce their positions.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-24 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Ying</p><p>Over the past week, central banks' rate hike frenzy, the firing of the first shot in foreign exchange intervention, and the UK's new fiscal policy have created a massive wave in global financial markets, affecting almost all assets. Wall Street is also struggling to hold on, and institutions are considering reducing their positions and exiting the market.</p><p>Last week, U.S. stocks plummeted again, with the S&P 500 falling for the fifth consecutive trading day, dropping 4.7%. The bond and foreign exchange markets also experienced sharp fluctuations, with US Treasury yields surging to historic highs; The dollar also surged to a 20-year high, leading emerging market countries to face a debt crisis and forcing Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 1998.</p><p>Just yesterday, the British government introduced its strongest tax cut in history, causing the pound sterling and British bonds to plummet, the fastest drop in the past 40 years. This also triggered a series of chain reactions, dragging down silver and gold.</p><p>In the current situation where liquidity in both stocks and bonds is extremely scarce,<b>With the arrival of a tighter monetary policy, various forms of cross-asset fluctuations are inevitable.</b></p><p>Benjamin Dunn, president of Alpha Theory Advisors, said:</p><p>We are seeing a significant surge in cross-asset volatility, which will lead to accelerated deleveraging or de-risking across all asset classes. Soaring cross-asset volatility may force Wall Street to reduce its holdings and exit the market.</p><p>Institutions typically use risk models to assess their ability to cope with monetary tightening policies. If greater volatility affects Wall Street institutions and elsewhere, trading signals guiding professional investors on how to allocate funds will turn red, leading to further reductions in institutional positions and greater market volatility.</p><p>Christian Hoffmann, an Investment manager at Thornburg Investment Management, pointed out that most model standard deviation changes are larger than usual, and we have not yet seen a real liquidity crisis, but the market remains very fragile.</p><p>Currently, there is no obvious panic, but the potential danger is that a wave of selling could spread to other asset classes. Large asset management companies operate within a risk management framework,<b>Rising volatility often requires selling portfolio assets.</b>Referring to risk valuation models, this type of sell-off is called a VaR shock.</p><p>For Dunn, an analyst at investment consulting firm Alpha Theory, Friday's collapse of British bonds and the pound sterling is seen as a chain risk event that led to the collapse of assets such as oil and silver. UK 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest single-day gain on record after tax cuts raised concerns about inflation and aggressive rate hike. The pound plunged 3.5% to its lowest level since 1985, marking its third largest drop in two decades. Dunn believes,<b>This action looks like a forced liquidation exit.</b></p><p>Pessimism spread, and all assets were sold off.</p><p>The days of stable returns over the past decade will live up to their expectations, and turmoil has become the main theme today. Countries around the world are racing to increase their efforts to combat inflation at the expense of economic growth. Just this week, more than a dozen central banks tightened monetary policy, and some countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, were forced to rate hike to protect their peg to the dollar.</p><p>Affected by the global rate hike, the \"anchor of asset pricing\" has experienced a wide sell-off. The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds has climbed for 12 consecutive days, which is the first consecutive sell-off since 1976. The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds has hit a new high in more than ten years for five consecutive days. So far this year, US Treasury bonds and US stocks have fallen by far more than 20%.</p><p>As the market continues to decline, investors are avoiding almost all asset classes in favor of holding cash. In its latest research report, Bank of America cited data from EPFR Global, stating that as of the week ending September 21, Global equity funds saw outflows of $7.8 billion, bond funds saw outflows of $6.9 billion, and gold saw outflows of $400 million.<b>Cash inflows reached $30.3 billion.</b></p><p><b>Market sentiment has reached its most pessimistic state since the 2008 global financial crisis.</b>It also shifted from initial concerns about the economic recession to how long the pain would last.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671079\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ebf78f14a39342abc136612fa11a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671079","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1152251318","content_text":"作者：赵颖过去的一周，各国央行加息狂潮、外汇干预打响第一枪以及英国新的财政政策在全球金融市场掀起滔天巨浪，几乎各类资产都难以幸免，华尔街也有点顶不住了，机构们欲减仓离场。上周，美股再度大跌，标普500指数连续五个交易日下跌，跌幅达4.7%；债市和汇市也出现剧烈波动，美债收益率疯狂跃升至历史性的高水平；美元也飙升至20年来的新高，导致新兴市场国家面临面临债务危机，日本不得不出手，自1998年以来首次干预汇市。就在昨日，英国政府推出史上最强“减税”方案，英镑英债暴跌，下跌速度为过去40年最快，同时也引发一些列连锁反应，带崩了白银和黄金。在从股票到债券流动性都十分匮乏的当下，随着更加强硬的货币政策的到来，各种形式的跨资产波动在所难免。Alpha Theory Advisors总裁Benjamin Dunn表示：我们看到跨资产波动率正在大幅飙升，这将导致所有类别的资产类别加快去杠杆化或去风险化进程。跨资产波动率飙升 华尔街或将开始被迫减仓离场机构通常使用的风险模型来测算是否能够应对货币紧缩政策，如果更大的波动影响到华尔街机构和其他地方，指导专业投资者如何分配资金的交易信号就会亮起红灯，进而导致机构减仓更多和市场波动更大。Thornburg Investment Management投资经理Christian Hoffmann指出，大多数模型标准差变动都超出了平时，目前我们还没有看到真正的流动性危机，但市场仍然非常脆弱。目前，尚未出现明显的恐慌，但潜在的危险是，一波抛售浪潮会波及其他类别资产。大型资产管理公司是在风险管理框架下运作的，在这种框架下，波动率不断上升往往需要抛售投资组合资产，参照风险估值模型，这种抛售被称为VaR冲击。对投资咨询公司Alpha Theory分析师Dunn来说，周五英债和英镑崩盘被视为一种连锁风险事件，其导致了石油和白银等资产崩盘。英国10年国债券收益率创下历史最高单日涨幅，此前减税方案引发了对通胀和激进加息的担忧。而英镑大跌3.5%至1985年以来的最低水平，创二十年来第三大跌幅。Dunn认为，这一行动看上去像是被迫的清算离场。悲观情绪蔓延 所有资产都遭到抛售过去十年获取稳定回报的日子将不负存在，动荡成为当下的主旋律，全球各国都在竞相以经济增长为代价，加大对抗通胀的力度。就在本周，十多家央行收紧货币政策，一些国家被迫加息，以保护其盯住美元汇率，如阿拉伯联合酋长国和沙特阿拉伯。受全球掀起加息潮的影响，“大类资产定价之锚”遭遇全线抛售，两年期美债收益率已连续12天攀升，这是自1976年以来从未出现过的连续抛售，十年期美债收益率连续五日创十余年新高。今年迄今，美债和美股的跌幅已远远超过20%。伴随着市场持续下跌，投资者几乎避开所有资产类别，转向持有现金，美银在最新研报中引述EPFR Global的数据称，截至9月21日当周，全球股票基金资金流出78亿美元，债券基金资金流出69亿美元，黄金则流出4亿美元，现金流入则达303亿美元。市场情绪达到2008年全球金融危机以来最悲观的状态，也从一开始的对经济衰退的担忧转变成痛苦将持续多久。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}