Fattkhong personal page - To The Moon

Fattkhong

Fattkhong

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2023-02-28

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]

2023-02-09

[惊讶]

@第N次大变革大分流:tsla反彈到230都沒問題，但這並不代表基本面改善，僅僅大量的做空彈止損或者爆倉導致的結果而已，是tsla股票超高貝塔值的表現，反彈的高並不奇怪。tesla面臨的競爭環境是越來越激烈的，而且馬斯克也絲毫沒有將精力轉移到tesla的跡象。後面還是會回探112確認底部。

2023-01-31

[惊讶]

Analyst: Cook is brilliant, Apple will not lay off large-scale layoffs

2022-12-29

[惊讶]

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2022-12-26

[惊讶]

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2022-12-19

[鬼脸]

Argentina won the championship, and these Chinese brands also "won hemp"

2022-12-18

[惊讶]

2022-12-18

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2022-12-14

[惊讶]

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2022-12-12

[惊讶]

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2022-12-11

[惊讶]

Besides the 50 basis points of rate hike, what are the more important highlights of the Fed's meeting next week?

2022-12-10

[惊讶]

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2022-12-09

[惊讶]

The most important data before the Federal Reserve's December rate hike is approaching, and the US November CPI will be announced next week. What does Wall Street think?

2022-12-08

[惊讶]

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2022-12-07

[惊讶]

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2022-12-05

[惊讶]

Leapmotor: Included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from December 5

2022-12-04

[惊讶]

Last night and this morning | Big intraday reversal after the employment report! China Concept Index rose more than 20% this week

2022-12-03

[惊讶]

The G7 finally reached a price ceiling on Russian oil, why is it $60?

2022-12-01

[惊讶]

Global debt costs soar! What does it mean?

2022-11-30

[惊讶]

Supply or demand? The Fed is trying to figure out what drives high inflation

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d02c83f17542b85b2b3599c152b3c680","width":"390","height":"291"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957775509","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954954732,"gmtCreate":1675952412926,"gmtModify":1675952417392,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954954732","repostId":"9954952942","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9954952942,"gmtCreate":1675950729587,"gmtModify":1675950735076,"author":{"id":"3564479083780631","authorId":"3564479083780631","name":"第N次大变革大分流","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ac78897b78c47a3afab38088cf5216c","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564479083780631","idStr":"3564479083780631"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tsla反彈到230都沒問題，但這並不代表基本面改善，僅僅大量的做空彈止損或者爆倉導致的結果而已，是tsla股票超高貝塔值的表現，反彈的高並不奇怪。tesla面臨的競爭環境是越來越激烈的，而且馬斯克也絲毫沒有將精力轉移到tesla的跡象。後面還是會回探112確認底部。","listText":"tsla反彈到230都沒問題，但這並不代表基本面改善，僅僅大量的做空彈止損或者爆倉導致的結果而已，是tsla股票超高貝塔值的表現，反彈的高並不奇怪。tesla面臨的競爭環境是越來越激烈的，而且馬斯克也絲毫沒有將精力轉移到tesla的跡象。後面還是會回探112確認底部。","text":"tsla反彈到230都沒問題，但這並不代表基本面改善，僅僅大量的做空彈止損或者爆倉導致的結果而已，是tsla股票超高貝塔值的表現，反彈的高並不奇怪。tesla面臨的競爭環境是越來越激烈的，而且馬斯克也絲毫沒有將精力轉移到tesla的跡象。後面還是會回探112確認底部。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954952942","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955390773,"gmtCreate":1675178630593,"gmtModify":1676538982268,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955390773","repostId":"1113254562","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113254562","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675178228,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113254562?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-31 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Analyst: Cook is brilliant, Apple will not lay off large-scale layoffs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113254562","media":"新浪科技","summary":"苹果将成为科技行业的一个例外。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, Dan Ives, an analyst at investment bank Wedbush, said today that Apple will not lay off thousands of jobs like other large technology companies because CEO Tim Cook runs Apple very well.</p><p>Last week, it was reported that Apple had begun laying off some non-seasonal employees in retail channels other than Apple Store. 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If Ives's prediction is accurate, it means Apple will become an exception in the technology industry.</p><p>Prior to this, Salesforce had announced a 10% cut of about 8,000 employees, Microsoft laid off 10,000 employees, Amazon laid off 18,000 employees, Meta laid off 10,000 employees, Snap laid off 20%, and Robinhood laid off 23%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analyst: Cook is brilliant, Apple will not lay off large-scale layoffs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalyst: Cook is brilliant, Apple will not lay off large-scale layoffs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-31 23:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, Dan Ives, an analyst at investment bank Wedbush, said today that Apple will not lay off thousands of jobs like other large technology companies because CEO Tim Cook runs Apple very well.</p><p>Last week, it was reported that Apple had begun laying off some non-seasonal employees in retail channels other than Apple Store. Some Apple retail channel employees who work in stores such as Best Buy have received layoff notices.</p><p>In addition, Apple also cut 100 contract recruiters. But so far, Apple hasn't cut jobs as much as other big tech companies.</p><p>In this regard, Ives, an analyst at investment bank Wedbush, said: \"Apple has never recruited employees as vigorously as other technology giants. Therefore, you will only see them cutting costs on the edge. They are tacticians and have brains.\"</p><p>Ives also added: \"This just explains why Cook is a 'Hall of Fame' CEO. I think he can navigate the current situation without layoffs like other technology companies.\"</p><p>Apple only increased its workforce by about 7% in 2022 compared to 2021. If Ives's prediction is accurate, it means Apple will become an exception in the technology industry.</p><p>Prior to this, Salesforce had announced a 10% cut of about 8,000 employees, Microsoft laid off 10,000 employees, Amazon laid off 18,000 employees, Meta laid off 10,000 employees, Snap laid off 20%, and Robinhood laid off 23%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/it/2023-01-31/doc-imyecayz2657218.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d8ada6a43017d400bcffc8d2d50c562","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/it/2023-01-31/doc-imyecayz2657218.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113254562","content_text":"据报道，投行Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）今日称，苹果公司不会像其他大型科技公司那样裁员数千人，因为CEO蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）把苹果运营得非常好。上周有报道称，苹果已开始在苹果零售店（Apple Store）以外的零售渠道，解雇一些非季节性员工。一些在百思买（Best Buy）等商店工作的苹果零售渠道员工，已经收到了裁员通知。此外，苹果还裁减了100名合同制招聘人员。但到目前为止，苹果还没有像其他大型科技公司那样大规模裁员。对此，投行Wedbush分析师艾夫斯称：“苹果从来没有像其他科技巨头那样，大力度招聘员工。因此，你只会看到他们在边缘地带削减成本。他们是战术家，有头脑。”艾夫斯还补充说：“这正好说明了为什么库克是一位‘名人堂’CEO。我认为，他能够驾驭当前的这种情况，不需要像其他科技公司那样进行裁员。”与2021年相比，苹果2022年的员工数量仅增加了约7%。如果艾夫斯的预测准确，意味着苹果将成为科技行业的一个例外。在此之前，Salesforce已宣布裁减10%约8000人，微软裁员1万人，亚马逊裁员1.8万人，Meta裁员1万人，Snap裁员20%，Robinhood裁员23%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924464888,"gmtCreate":1672313110044,"gmtModify":1676538670551,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924464888","repostId":"1107137579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925207370,"gmtCreate":1672024526390,"gmtModify":1676538623600,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925207370","repostId":"1190601149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926067290,"gmtCreate":1671423327811,"gmtModify":1676538534153,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","text":"[鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926067290","repostId":"1142370958","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142370958","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671421892,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142370958?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-19 11:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Argentina won the championship, and these Chinese brands also \"won hemp\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142370958","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"与阿根廷球迷们一样激动的，还有众多的赞助商。","content":"<p><div>In the early morning of today (19th), Beijing time, Argentina defeated defending champion France 7: 5 (penalty shootout 4: 2) and won the World Cup again after 36 years. After the results of the game were released, there were many sponsors as excited as Argentine fans. In this World Cup, Argentina's national team has become the favorite team of Chinese brands, and at least eight domestic brands have signed contracts with it. On December 18th, Argentine players celebrated their victory after the game. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Cao Can Many Chinese brands bet on treasure There is a famous saying in football: \"What rolls on the lawn of the World Cup is not football, but gold.\" For...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"mrjjxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Argentina won the championship, and these Chinese brands also \"won hemp\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nArgentina won the championship, and these Chinese brands also \"won hemp\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-19 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>In the early morning of today (19th), Beijing time, Argentina defeated defending champion France 7: 5 (penalty shootout 4: 2) and won the World Cup again after 36 years. After the results of the game were released, there were many sponsors as excited as Argentine fans. In this World Cup, Argentina's national team has become the favorite team of Chinese brands, and at least eight domestic brands have signed contracts with it. On December 18th, Argentine players celebrated their victory after the game. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Cao Can Many Chinese brands bet on treasure There is a famous saying in football: \"What rolls on the lawn of the World Cup is not football, but gold.\" For...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9a9ad9eab87374bc503239be6852d30","relate_stocks":{"YPF":"阿根廷YPF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142370958","content_text":"北京时间今天（19日）凌晨，阿根廷队以7:5(点球大战4:2)击败卫冕冠军法国队，时隔36年后再次夺得世界杯冠军。比赛结果出炉后，与阿根廷球迷们一样激动的，还有众多的赞助商。本届世界杯，阿根廷国家队成为了中国品牌最喜欢的球队，至少有八家国内品牌与之签约。12月18日，阿根廷队球员在比赛后庆祝胜利。新华社记者 曹灿 摄多家中国品牌押对宝足坛有一句名言：“世界杯草坪上滚动的不是足球，而是金子。”对于赞助商来说，拥有顶级流量的世界杯也有着顶级的“带货”能力。2014年巴西世界杯德国队夺冠，阿迪达斯作为德国队主要赞助商，当年的足球装备销售额超过了20亿欧元；而在2002年韩日世界杯，韩国现代汽车斥资15亿欧元成为世界杯官方赞助商，同年现代汽车在美国的销量增长高达40％。近年来，中国企业的身影也更多地出现在世界杯球场内外。英国数据公司“环球数据”(GlobalData)的统计显示，中国企业在本届卡塔尔世界杯的赞助额达到14亿美元（约合人民币100亿元），超过了包含可口可乐、麦当劳和百威等品牌在内的美国企业（11亿美元），总赞助额位列全球第一。其中，万达与可口可乐、阿迪达斯、现代起亚、卡塔尔航空、卡塔尔能源、VISA一同，被列为国际足联七大官方合作伙伴之一。Vivo、蒙牛和海信则属于国际足联世界杯赞助商。在球队赞助商方面，阿根廷作为本届世界杯有夺冠希望的球队，赛前就受到了国内多个赞助商的青睐，包括球队及球员个人都成为了赞助目标。据南方都市报统计，包括伊利、盼盼食品、库迪咖啡、万家乐、广汽三菱、网易传媒、万达体育和灵犀娱乐，均是阿根廷队的赞助商或合作商。11月，阿根廷足协营销经理莱安德罗·彼得森表示，在已签约的全球赞助商中，中国企业占10%至15%。这让其他球队相形见绌，签约中国赞助商第二多的是葡萄牙队和西班牙队，分别有3家；德国队和比利时队分别有两家，而上届冠军法国队只有一家中国赞助商。乳企伊利和蒙牛成为“本届世界杯走到最后的赢家”，其中伊利为阿根廷队中国区赞助商，而在决赛场上，两大球星梅西、姆巴佩都是蒙牛代言人。在电视直播画面中，蒙牛“今晚彻底不慌了”的广告语在网络上也引起热议。中国企业的“世界杯梦”虽然足球强国主要集中在欧洲和美洲，但是世界杯的近一半观众都来自亚洲。据国际足联的数据，在2018年俄罗斯世界杯上，亚洲观众人数达到16亿，占全球观众总数的43%。而收视率排名前五的国家中有三个在亚洲，分别为中国、印度和印度尼西亚。中国企业与世界杯的“姻缘”虽然晚，甚至要晚于国足的首次世界杯之旅(2002年韩日世界杯)，但赞助规模的攀升速度却很快。中国对世界杯的赞助，始于2010年的南非世界杯，相信许多中国球迷迄今，依然对当届世界杯球场边线处“中国英利，光伏入户”的广告牌记忆犹新。在2014年的巴西世界杯上，英利也是唯一中资赞助商。据当时国内媒体估算，英利当时在这两届世界杯上的投入接近10亿元人民币。而随着2018年世界杯在俄罗斯举办，更多中国赞助商也纷纷出海。据统计，不少于7家中国公司赞助了2018年的俄罗斯世界杯，估计花费了8.35亿美元——远远超过美国和俄罗斯本土的品牌。在卡塔尔世界杯，中国赞助商的赞助权益也从简单的品牌露出，变为深度参与其中。下届世界杯将于2026年移师北美，中国公司对这项赛事的参与预计还将继续增加。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YPF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928485869,"gmtCreate":1671373480151,"gmtModify":1676538527122,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928485869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928414849,"gmtCreate":1671360501182,"gmtModify":1676538526739,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928414849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921850599,"gmtCreate":1671030699412,"gmtModify":1676538478713,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921850599","repostId":"1168159798","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923298618,"gmtCreate":1670859650934,"gmtModify":1676538447840,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923298618","repostId":"2290203532","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929723467,"gmtCreate":1670734924460,"gmtModify":1676538425838,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929723467","repostId":"1181442501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181442501","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1670636160,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181442501?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 09:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Besides the 50 basis points of rate hike, what are the more important highlights of the Fed's meeting next week?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181442501","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美联储官员已经释出信号，计划在下周会议上将基准利率提高0.5个百分点，但薪资压力居高不下可能会促使美联储继续加息，将利率提高到比投资者当前预期更高的水平。今年以来美联储的加息速度已经创下20世纪80年","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials have signaled that they plan to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at next week's meeting, but high salary pressures may prompt the Fed to continue its rate hike and raise interest rates to a higher level than investors currently expect.</p><p>The Fed's rate hike pace this year has hit its highest rate since the early 1980s, including four consecutive rate hike of 0.75 percentage points in the past four meetings to combat inflation.</p><p><b>A switch to a smaller 0.5 percentage point rate hike would mark a new phase of policy tightening.</b>Policymakers expect that inflationary pressures will ease substantially next year, but rapid wage growth or rising inflation in the labor-intensive service industry may lead more policymakers to support raising the benchmark interest rate to more than 5% next year, compared with investors' current expectations. The peak interest rate is 5%.</p><p>Powell said last week that since it will take some time for rate hike to play a role in curbing economic growth, the impact on inflation will take even longer to appear. \"If you want to wait for evidence of a fall in inflation, it will be difficult to avoid excessive tightening. We believe that slowing down the pace of tightening at this time is a good way to balance risks.\"</p><p>The market rebounded after Powell's comments last week, which some investors interpreted as a shift from what he made last summer and fall. However, he also stressed that he has not changed his view that the bigger mistake the Fed may make is its failure to control inflation.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve's rate hike in December is 0.5 percentage point, it will raise the benchmark federal funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%, which will be the highest level since December 2007. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), rose 6% year-on-year in October. The Fed aims for inflation to fall back to 2% over time.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting on the morning of December 13, when officials will see another inflation data and the U.S. Department of Labor will release the consumer price index (CPI) for November.</b>If there are signs that inflationary pressures are still high, they may consider consecutive rate hike at meetings this month and next February, with a rate hike of 0.5 percentage points each time.</p><p><b>Officials are likely to signal a slightly more positive outlook for interest rates in a new quarterly economic forecast to be released after the upcoming meeting.</b>This could indicate that policymakers expect to continue the rate hike by at least 25 basis points until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled.</p><p><b>Most officials in September expected interest rates to rise to 4.5%-5% next year. According to new forecasts, interest rates may rise to 4.75%-5.25% next year.</b></p><p>\"Labor demand is stronger, U.S. domestic demand is stronger than I previously expected, and then the underlying inflation rate rises slightly, suggesting a slightly higher policy path compared to the situation in September,\" New York Fed President Williams John Williams said in the past week. This is not a huge change, just a little higher.</p><p><b>Officials will likely discuss how much rate hike will be in February next week, and their opinion depends on their view of potential price pressures. If inflation slows but the labor market remains tight, they may be more divided on how to proceed.</b></p><p>Some officials may seek another 50 basis point rate hike in February because they see a greater risk of inflation not falling enough next year. Without signs of a slowdown in hiring, they may be worried that inflation could rise again.</p><p>Other officials believe that inflation is largely due to supply bottlenecks and an overheated housing market. They believe that as economic activity cools and supply chain problems ease, inflation will decline rapidly and approach 2% next year. These officials favor a 25 basis point rate hike in February next year.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Besides the 50 basis points of rate hike, what are the more important highlights of the Fed's meeting next week?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBesides the 50 basis points of rate hike, what are the more important highlights of the Fed's meeting next week?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-10 09:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials have signaled that they plan to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at next week's meeting, but high salary pressures may prompt the Fed to continue its rate hike and raise interest rates to a higher level than investors currently expect.</p><p>The Fed's rate hike pace this year has hit its highest rate since the early 1980s, including four consecutive rate hike of 0.75 percentage points in the past four meetings to combat inflation.</p><p><b>A switch to a smaller 0.5 percentage point rate hike would mark a new phase of policy tightening.</b>Policymakers expect that inflationary pressures will ease substantially next year, but rapid wage growth or rising inflation in the labor-intensive service industry may lead more policymakers to support raising the benchmark interest rate to more than 5% next year, compared with investors' current expectations. The peak interest rate is 5%.</p><p>Powell said last week that since it will take some time for rate hike to play a role in curbing economic growth, the impact on inflation will take even longer to appear. \"If you want to wait for evidence of a fall in inflation, it will be difficult to avoid excessive tightening. We believe that slowing down the pace of tightening at this time is a good way to balance risks.\"</p><p>The market rebounded after Powell's comments last week, which some investors interpreted as a shift from what he made last summer and fall. However, he also stressed that he has not changed his view that the bigger mistake the Fed may make is its failure to control inflation.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve's rate hike in December is 0.5 percentage point, it will raise the benchmark federal funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%, which will be the highest level since December 2007. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), rose 6% year-on-year in October. The Fed aims for inflation to fall back to 2% over time.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting on the morning of December 13, when officials will see another inflation data and the U.S. Department of Labor will release the consumer price index (CPI) for November.</b>If there are signs that inflationary pressures are still high, they may consider consecutive rate hike at meetings this month and next February, with a rate hike of 0.5 percentage points each time.</p><p><b>Officials are likely to signal a slightly more positive outlook for interest rates in a new quarterly economic forecast to be released after the upcoming meeting.</b>This could indicate that policymakers expect to continue the rate hike by at least 25 basis points until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled.</p><p><b>Most officials in September expected interest rates to rise to 4.5%-5% next year. According to new forecasts, interest rates may rise to 4.75%-5.25% next year.</b></p><p>\"Labor demand is stronger, U.S. domestic demand is stronger than I previously expected, and then the underlying inflation rate rises slightly, suggesting a slightly higher policy path compared to the situation in September,\" New York Fed President Williams John Williams said in the past week. This is not a huge change, just a little higher.</p><p><b>Officials will likely discuss how much rate hike will be in February next week, and their opinion depends on their view of potential price pressures. If inflation slows but the labor market remains tight, they may be more divided on how to proceed.</b></p><p>Some officials may seek another 50 basis point rate hike in February because they see a greater risk of inflation not falling enough next year. Without signs of a slowdown in hiring, they may be worried that inflation could rise again.</p><p>Other officials believe that inflation is largely due to supply bottlenecks and an overheated housing market. They believe that as economic activity cools and supply chain problems ease, inflation will decline rapidly and approach 2% next year. These officials favor a 25 basis point rate hike in February next year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181442501","content_text":"美联储官员已经释出信号，计划在下周会议上将基准利率提高0.5个百分点，但薪资压力居高不下可能会促使美联储继续加息，将利率提高到比投资者当前预期更高的水平。今年以来美联储的加息速度已经创下20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平，包括过去四次会议上连续四次加息0.75个百分点，以应对通货膨胀。转为较小的0.5个百分点的加息将标志着政策紧缩进入一个新阶段。决策者预计明年通胀压力将有实质性缓解，但劳动密集型的服务业薪资增长迅速或通胀率上升，可能导致更多决策者支持明年将基准利率提高到5%以上，而目前投资者预期的利率峰值为5%。鲍威尔上周表示，由于加息需要一段时间才能起到抑制经济增速的作用，对通胀的影响甚至需要更长时间才能显现，“如果要等待通胀回落的实证，就很难避免过度收紧。我们认为，在这个时候放慢紧缩步伐是平衡风险的一个好办法。”鲍威尔上周发表上述言论后，市场出现反弹，一些投资者将其解读为与他去年夏秋发表的言论相比发生了转变。不过他也强调，他没有改变自己的观点，即美联储可能犯的更大的错误是未能控制住通胀。若美联储12月加息0.5个百分点，将使基准的联邦基金目标利率升至4.25%-4.5%，从而将创下2007年12月以来的最高水平。美联储偏好的通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)在10月份同比上升6%。美联储的目标是，随着时间的推移，通胀率回落至2%。美联储将在12月13日上午开始为期两天的货币政策会议，当天官员们将看到另一份通胀数据，美国劳工部将公布11月份消费者价格指数(CPI)。如果有迹象显示通胀压力依然较大，他们可能会考虑在本月和明年2月的会议上连续加息，每次加息0.5个百分点。官员们可能会在即将举行的会议后发布的新季度经济预测中发出略微更积极的利率前景信号。这可能表明，政策制定者预计将继续加息至少25个基点，直到他们看到劳动力市场已经降温的明确迹象。大多数官员在9月份预计明年利率将升至4.5%-5%。而根据新的预测，明年利率可能升至4.75%-5.25%。“劳动力需求更加旺盛，美国内需比我之前预期的更强劲，然后潜在通胀率略有上升，这表明与9月份时的形势相比，政策路径会略高一些，”纽约联储银行行长威廉斯(John Williams)在过去一周表示。这并非一个巨大的变化，只是略高了一点。官员们可能会在下周讨论2月份加息多少，他们的看法取决于他们对潜在价格压力的看法。如果通胀放缓，但劳动力市场仍然紧张，他们可能会在如何进行的问题上存在更大分歧。一些官员可能会寻求在2月份再次加息50个基点，因为他们认为明年通胀下降不够的风险更大。如果没有招聘放缓的迹象，他们可能会担心通胀可能会再次上升。另一些官员认为，通胀主要归因于供应瓶颈和房地产市场过热。他们认为，随着经济活动降温，供应链问题缓解，通胀将迅速下行，并在明年接近2%。这些官员倾向于明年2月份加息25个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929646861,"gmtCreate":1670659256554,"gmtModify":1676538413884,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929646861","repostId":"2290265600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929984034,"gmtCreate":1670586265128,"gmtModify":1676538399187,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929984034","repostId":"2290473739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2290473739","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670552014,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2290473739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-09 10:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The most important data before the Federal Reserve's December rate hike is approaching, and the US November CPI will be announced next week. What does Wall Street think?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290473739","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞银认为，11月总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，不会出现今年3月和7月那样的次月反弹。巴克莱认为，能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>UBS believes that both overall and core CPI will confirm a slowdown in growth in November, and there will be no rebound in the following month like in March and July this year. Barclays believes that energy prices have driven the overall CPI to slow down, core service inflation has slowed down, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate.</b>The US CPI for November is scheduled to be released next Tuesday, December 13. The day after its release, the Federal Reserve will announce the resolution of its December monetary policy meeting.</p><p>The November CPI thus became the last heavy inflation data released before the Federal Reserve made its decision. It is undoubtedly the most important U.S. economic data to be released next week, and it is the heavy data that may influence the Fed's recent decision-making.</p><p>After U.S. CPI growth slowed more than expected in October, will this momentum continue in November? Two Wall Street institutions released detailed outlooks on CPI.</p><p><b>UBS: Both overall and core CPI will confirm slowdown in growth, and the month-on-month growth rate of core inflation will gradually decline in the future</b></p><p>UBS expects CPI to confirm slowing growth in November. Due to softer gasoline prices, the overall CPI price growth in November will be slower than in the previous two months. After seasonally adjustment, the overall CPI in November will increase by 0.26% month-on-month, the third lowest month-on-month growth rate since inflation began to rise early last year, lower than the growth rate of 0.39% in September and 0.44% in October.</p><p>UBS predicts that CPI will increase by 7.3% year-on-year in November, 0.5 percentage points slower than the growth rate in October, and a decrease of 1 percentage point in three months, far from the peak level of 9.1% in June.</p><p>For the core CPI after excluding volatile food and energy prices, UBS predicts that it will increase by 0.31% month-on-month in November, roughly in line with the 0.27% growth rate in October. Food prices are expected to grow at 0.88% in November, slightly faster than 0.6% in October.</p><p>UBS predicts that the core CPI will increase by 6.1% year-on-year in November, 0.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate in October, and 0.5 percentage points lower than the peak level of 6.6% in September.</p><p>UBS believes that the core CPI in November will confirm the slowdown in growth reflected in the October data. Unlike the situation in March and July this year, when inflation slowed down and then rebounded the following month, UBS did not find high-frequency and leading indicators suggesting that November would rebound from October. In other words, only a small part of the component prices of core CPI inflation grew stronger in November than in October, such as air tickets, clothing, and household goods. Used car prices are expected to decline steadily again, and rent increases will be strong, but still far below the peak growth rate in September.</p><p>Looking ahead to the December U.S. CPI to be released in January next year, UBS expects the growth rate of the overall CPI to slow down slightly, as gasoline prices will continue to fall steadily. The picture for core CPI is complicated, as last Friday's non-farm payrolls report showed that strong wage growth could support any upward inflation for core services other than rents, while indicators of rents and core commodities still show a downward trend, such as global freight costs Continue to decline, supplier delivery times decrease, and fall into deceleration range.</p><p><b>Barclays: Energy prices drive headline CPI slowdown, core services inflation slows, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate</b></p><p>Barclays predicts that the overall CPI in November will increase by 0.2% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year; The month-on-month growth rate of food inflation will slow slightly to 0.6% in November, and energy prices will fall by 1.7% month-on-month in November, the third month of decline in the last four months, which is the driving force behind the overall CPI slowdown.</p><p>Barclays also predicts that core CPI in November will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year, of which core service inflation will increase by 0.42% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year; Core commodities will remain moderately deflationary, which is expected to fall by 0.16% month-on-month, moderating from the 0.38% month-on-month decline in October, which hit the third largest deflation in the past two decades.</p><p>Barclays believes that core services inflation is still strong, but growth is slowing, not slow growth, and it is once again supported by strong housing inflation. Excluding the early COVID-19 pandemic, 0.42% will be the highest month-on-month growth rate of core services inflation since the beginning of 2005.</p><p>Barclays also believes that it is necessary to pay attention to excluding core services inflation for housing in future CPI data, because Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell specifically mentioned in his speech last week that excluding core services for housing, saying that it \"may be the most important thing to understand the future evolution of core inflation. important category\". It also mentioned services other than housing, which are closely related to the labor market, saying that \"because wages constitute the largest cost of providing these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category\".</p><p>In terms of core commodities, Barclays believes that the trend of continued deflation in November comes from a major driving force, that is, the pressure on the global supply chain has generally and rapidly eased, and the current supply chain pressure is only slightly higher than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level. And, retailers' inventories are now mostly rebuilt at levels close to pre-pandemic trends, which should continue to help balance supply and demand for goods beyond energy and food. Barclays also found that multiple sub-categories will drive down core commodities, such as used cars whose prices have fallen for four consecutive months.</p><p>In terms of medium-term forecasts, Barclays' CPI expectations have changed little compared to before, but they will continue to reflect the high uncertainty of the domestic inflation path in the United States. It predicts that the overall CPI in December this year will increase by 6.5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate in 2023, that is, December next year, will slow down to 2.7%, and further drop to 2.3% by December 2024. The overall CPI will increase by 8.0% year-on-year this year, 4.3% next year, and 2.4% in 2024. Part of the weakness in headline inflation next year stems from lower energy prices then.</p><p>Barclays predicts that the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI will slow down to 5.8% in December this year from the peak of 6.7% in September, to 2.9% by December next year, and to 2.4% by December 2024.%.</p><p>Barclays predicts that core service inflation will increase by 6.9%, 4.2% and 3.2% year-on-year this year, next year and 2024 respectively. At the end of 2024, it will fall back to nearly 3%.</p><p>For core commodities, Barclays expects to be in a stage of moderate deflation in the first half of next year. The year-on-year growth rates of core commodities this year, next year and 2024 will be 2.8%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. This forecast is based on the assumption that the global supply chain slowdown will continue and eventually return to near-historical normal levels by the end of next year, and a mild recession will begin in the second quarter of next year, affecting demand for commodities.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The most important data before the Federal Reserve's December rate hike is approaching, and the US November CPI will be announced next week. What does Wall Street think?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe most important data before the Federal Reserve's December rate hike is approaching, and the US November CPI will be announced next week. What does Wall Street think?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-09 10:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>UBS believes that both overall and core CPI will confirm a slowdown in growth in November, and there will be no rebound in the following month like in March and July this year. Barclays believes that energy prices have driven the overall CPI to slow down, core service inflation has slowed down, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate.</b>The US CPI for November is scheduled to be released next Tuesday, December 13. The day after its release, the Federal Reserve will announce the resolution of its December monetary policy meeting.</p><p>The November CPI thus became the last heavy inflation data released before the Federal Reserve made its decision. It is undoubtedly the most important U.S. economic data to be released next week, and it is the heavy data that may influence the Fed's recent decision-making.</p><p>After U.S. CPI growth slowed more than expected in October, will this momentum continue in November? Two Wall Street institutions released detailed outlooks on CPI.</p><p><b>UBS: Both overall and core CPI will confirm slowdown in growth, and the month-on-month growth rate of core inflation will gradually decline in the future</b></p><p>UBS expects CPI to confirm slowing growth in November. Due to softer gasoline prices, the overall CPI price growth in November will be slower than in the previous two months. After seasonally adjustment, the overall CPI in November will increase by 0.26% month-on-month, the third lowest month-on-month growth rate since inflation began to rise early last year, lower than the growth rate of 0.39% in September and 0.44% in October.</p><p>UBS predicts that CPI will increase by 7.3% year-on-year in November, 0.5 percentage points slower than the growth rate in October, and a decrease of 1 percentage point in three months, far from the peak level of 9.1% in June.</p><p>For the core CPI after excluding volatile food and energy prices, UBS predicts that it will increase by 0.31% month-on-month in November, roughly in line with the 0.27% growth rate in October. Food prices are expected to grow at 0.88% in November, slightly faster than 0.6% in October.</p><p>UBS predicts that the core CPI will increase by 6.1% year-on-year in November, 0.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate in October, and 0.5 percentage points lower than the peak level of 6.6% in September.</p><p>UBS believes that the core CPI in November will confirm the slowdown in growth reflected in the October data. Unlike the situation in March and July this year, when inflation slowed down and then rebounded the following month, UBS did not find high-frequency and leading indicators suggesting that November would rebound from October. In other words, only a small part of the component prices of core CPI inflation grew stronger in November than in October, such as air tickets, clothing, and household goods. Used car prices are expected to decline steadily again, and rent increases will be strong, but still far below the peak growth rate in September.</p><p>Looking ahead to the December U.S. CPI to be released in January next year, UBS expects the growth rate of the overall CPI to slow down slightly, as gasoline prices will continue to fall steadily. The picture for core CPI is complicated, as last Friday's non-farm payrolls report showed that strong wage growth could support any upward inflation for core services other than rents, while indicators of rents and core commodities still show a downward trend, such as global freight costs Continue to decline, supplier delivery times decrease, and fall into deceleration range.</p><p><b>Barclays: Energy prices drive headline CPI slowdown, core services inflation slows, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate</b></p><p>Barclays predicts that the overall CPI in November will increase by 0.2% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year; The month-on-month growth rate of food inflation will slow slightly to 0.6% in November, and energy prices will fall by 1.7% month-on-month in November, the third month of decline in the last four months, which is the driving force behind the overall CPI slowdown.</p><p>Barclays also predicts that core CPI in November will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year, of which core service inflation will increase by 0.42% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year; Core commodities will remain moderately deflationary, which is expected to fall by 0.16% month-on-month, moderating from the 0.38% month-on-month decline in October, which hit the third largest deflation in the past two decades.</p><p>Barclays believes that core services inflation is still strong, but growth is slowing, not slow growth, and it is once again supported by strong housing inflation. Excluding the early COVID-19 pandemic, 0.42% will be the highest month-on-month growth rate of core services inflation since the beginning of 2005.</p><p>Barclays also believes that it is necessary to pay attention to excluding core services inflation for housing in future CPI data, because Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell specifically mentioned in his speech last week that excluding core services for housing, saying that it \"may be the most important thing to understand the future evolution of core inflation. important category\". It also mentioned services other than housing, which are closely related to the labor market, saying that \"because wages constitute the largest cost of providing these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category\".</p><p>In terms of core commodities, Barclays believes that the trend of continued deflation in November comes from a major driving force, that is, the pressure on the global supply chain has generally and rapidly eased, and the current supply chain pressure is only slightly higher than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level. And, retailers' inventories are now mostly rebuilt at levels close to pre-pandemic trends, which should continue to help balance supply and demand for goods beyond energy and food. Barclays also found that multiple sub-categories will drive down core commodities, such as used cars whose prices have fallen for four consecutive months.</p><p>In terms of medium-term forecasts, Barclays' CPI expectations have changed little compared to before, but they will continue to reflect the high uncertainty of the domestic inflation path in the United States. It predicts that the overall CPI in December this year will increase by 6.5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate in 2023, that is, December next year, will slow down to 2.7%, and further drop to 2.3% by December 2024. The overall CPI will increase by 8.0% year-on-year this year, 4.3% next year, and 2.4% in 2024. Part of the weakness in headline inflation next year stems from lower energy prices then.</p><p>Barclays predicts that the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI will slow down to 5.8% in December this year from the peak of 6.7% in September, to 2.9% by December next year, and to 2.4% by December 2024.%.</p><p>Barclays predicts that core service inflation will increase by 6.9%, 4.2% and 3.2% year-on-year this year, next year and 2024 respectively. At the end of 2024, it will fall back to nearly 3%.</p><p>For core commodities, Barclays expects to be in a stage of moderate deflation in the first half of next year. The year-on-year growth rates of core commodities this year, next year and 2024 will be 2.8%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. This forecast is based on the assumption that the global supply chain slowdown will continue and eventually return to near-historical normal levels by the end of next year, and a mild recession will begin in the second quarter of next year, affecting demand for commodities.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677048\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e840b1c7925bc414d98748d69475fa0","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677048","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290473739","content_text":"瑞银认为，11月总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，不会出现今年3月和7月那样的次月反弹。巴克莱认为，能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩。美国11月CPI 定于12月13日下周二公布。它公布的次日，美联储就将宣布12月货币政策会议的决议。11月CPI由此成为美联储制定决策前最后发布的重磅通胀数据，也无疑是下周将公布的最重要美国经济数据，是可能左右联储近期决策的重磅数据。在10月美国CPI增长超预期放缓后，11月还会延续这样的势头吗？两家华尔街机构公布了有关CPI的详细前瞻。瑞银：总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，未来核心通胀月环比增速将逐步下降瑞银预计，11月CPI将确认增长放缓。由于汽油价格更为疲软，11月总体CPI价格的增长将比前两个月更慢，季节性调整后，11月总体CPI将环比增长0.26%，为去年初通胀开始高涨以来第三低的月环比增速，低于9月的增速0.39%和10月的0.44%。瑞银预计，11月CPI同比增长7.3%，较10月的增速放缓0.5个百分点，三个月内下降1个百分点，远离6月的巅峰水平9.1%。对于剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI，瑞银预计，11月将环比增长0.31%，大致和10月增速0.27%一致。11月食品的价格增速料将为0.88%，略快于10月的0.6%。瑞银预计，11月核心CPI将同比增长6.1%，较10月增速回落0.2个百分点，较9月的巅峰水平6.6%回落0.5个百分点。瑞银认为，11月核心CPI将确认10月数据体现的增长放缓。不同于今年3月和7月通胀放缓后次月就反弹的情况，瑞银并未发现高频和先行的指标暗示11月会较10月有所回升。也就是说，核心CPI通胀的组成价格之中，只有很少一部分11月的增长比10月强劲，比如机票、服装、家用物品。二手车价格料将再次稳步下滑，房租上涨将很强劲，但仍远低于9月的巅峰增速。展望明年1月公布的12月美国CPI，瑞银预计总体CPI的增速将小幅放缓，因为汽油价格将继续稳步下跌。核心CPI的情况复杂，因为上周五的非农就业报告显示，薪资的强劲增长可能支持任何房租以外的核心服务类通胀上行，而房租与核心商品的指标仍体现下行趋势，比如全球货运成本继续下降、供应商配送时间减少、跌入减速区间。巴克莱：能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩巴克莱预计，11月总体CPI将环比增长0.2%，同比增长7.2%；11月食品通胀的环比增速将略微放缓至0.6%，11月能源价格环比下降1.7%，最近四个月内第三个月下跌，是总体CPI放缓的推手。巴克莱还预计，11月核心CPI环比增长0.3%，同比增长6.0%，其中核心服务通胀环比增长0.42%、同比增长6.8%；核心商品仍将是温和通缩，料将环比下降0.16%，较10月创近二十年来第三大通缩幅度的环比降幅0.38%缓和。巴克莱认为，核心服务通胀仍强劲，只是增长在放缓，并不是增长缓慢，它再次得到住房通胀强劲的支持。不计新冠疫情初期在内，0.42%将是2005年初以来核心服务通胀的最高月环比增速。巴克莱还认为，要留意未来CPI数据中剔除住房的核心服务通胀，因为美联储主席鲍威尔上周在讲话中特别提到，剔除住房的核心服务，称它“可能是理解未来核心通胀演变的最重要类别”。它还提到了和劳动力市场密切相关的住房以外服务业，称“因为薪资组成了提供这些服务的最大一类成本，劳动力市场掌握着理解该类别通胀的钥匙”。核心商品方面，巴克莱认为，11月将继续通缩的趋势来自一大推手，即全球供应链的压力普遍且迅速地缓和，目前的供应链压力只是略为超过新冠疫情前水平。而且，零售商的库存目前大部分重建，处于接近疫情前趋势的水平，这应该会继续帮助平衡能源和食品以外的商品供需。巴克莱还发现，多个分项类别将推动核心商品下行，比如价格已连跌四个月的二手车。中期预测方面，巴克莱的CPI预期相比之前变化很小，但会继续体现美国国内通胀道路的不确定性很高。其预计，今年12月的总体CPI将同比增长6.5%，2023年、即明年12月的同比增速将放缓至2.7%，到2024年12月进一步降至2.3%。总体CPI今年同比增长8.0%、明年增4.3%，2024年增2.4%。明年的总体通胀疲软部分源于届时能源价格下跌。巴克莱预计，今年12月核心CPI同比增速从9月的巅峰6.7%放缓至5.8%，到明年12月，同比增速降至2.9%，到2024年12月，进一步放缓至2.4%。巴克莱预计，今年、明年和2024年的核心服务通胀分别同比增长6.9%、4.2%和3.2%，其中住房通胀的同比增速料将在明年上半年达到顶峰，明年多数时间超过6%，到2024年末，回落到接近3%。对于核心商品，巴克莱预计明年上半年都会处于温和通缩阶段，今年、明年和2024年的核心商品同比增速将分别为2.8%、0.4%和0.3%。这一预测是基于假定全球供应链放缓将持续，并最终在明年底以前回到接近历史正常水平，而且明年二季度将开始出现温和衰退，影响商品的需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,".IXIC":1,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"PSQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"CPI":1,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920273021,"gmtCreate":1670511632963,"gmtModify":1676538383175,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920273021","repostId":"2289467753","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920041084,"gmtCreate":1670404223548,"gmtModify":1676538361133,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920041084","repostId":"2289040001","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967908273,"gmtCreate":1670243347292,"gmtModify":1676538327650,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967908273","repostId":"1144407861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144407861","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670242416,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144407861?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 20:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Leapmotor: Included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from December 5","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144407861","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月5日，零跑汽车：根据上海证券交易所及深圳证券交易所刊发的公告，本公司股份获纳入为沪港通计划和深港通计划相应股票名单的合资格股份，均自2022年12月5日起生效。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>December 5th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09863\">Leapmotor</a>: Pursuant to the announcements published by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the shares of the Company have been included as eligible shares in the corresponding list of shares under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme, both effective from 5 December 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b83d3157665237cd5c02c891375d67a9\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"747\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Leapmotor: Included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from December 5</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLeapmotor: Included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from December 5\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-05 20:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>December 5th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09863\">Leapmotor</a>: Pursuant to the announcements published by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the shares of the Company have been included as eligible shares in the corresponding list of shares under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme, both effective from 5 December 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b83d3157665237cd5c02c891375d67a9\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"747\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0800d0811a4a57cf8d539fbb32126521","relate_stocks":{"BK1119":"汽车制造商","09863":"零跑汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144407861","content_text":"12月5日，零跑汽车：根据上海证券交易所及深圳证券交易所刊发的公告，本公司股份获纳入为沪港通计划和深港通计划相应股票名单的合资格股份，均自2022年12月5日起生效。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09863":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964642916,"gmtCreate":1670142108336,"gmtModify":1676538309869,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964642916","repostId":"1117962450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117962450","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670028929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117962450?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 08:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | Big intraday reversal after the employment report! China Concept Index rose more than 20% this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117962450","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①非农数据强化联储加息预期，道指惊险转涨；②中概指数本周大涨逾20%。海外行情1、非农数据强化联储加息预期美股收盘涨跌不一股周五收盘涨跌不一，三大股指本周均录得涨幅。美国11月非农就业人数与薪资","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Non-agricultural data strengthened the Fed's rate hike expectations, and the Dow turned up thrillingly; ② The China Concept Index rose by more than 20% this week. Overseas market</p><p>1. Non-agricultural data strengthens Fed rate hike expectations, U.S. stocks close mixed</p><p>Stocks closed mixed on Friday, with all three major indexes recording gains this week. The number of non-farm payrolls and wage increases in the United States in November both exceeded expectations, indicating that inflationary pressures will be high in the future. The Federal Reserve still needs to continue to curb inflation, and may accumulate another 100 basis points of rate hike in the future.</p><p>The Dow rose 34.87 points, or 0.10%, to 34429.88 points; The Nasdaq fell 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11461.50 points; The S&P 500 index fell 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4071.70 points. This week, the Dow rose 0.24%, the S&P 500 rose 1.13%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.09%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rise more than 33% Bilibili rose more than 16%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose on Friday, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rising 5.39%. The index rose more than 22% this week, its largest weekly gain since mid-March.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">Suntech Agency</a>It rose by more than 50%, Zhihu rose by more than 33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Interesting headlines</a>Up by more than 30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Rose more than 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">Best Group</a>Rose more than 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>, educate together,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>, Fog Core Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Rose more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">Tuya Smart</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAT\">Atour</a>Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>, Leju rose more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Up more than 10%.</p><p>3. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.5% on Friday and rose 4.9% this week</p><p>Major European stock indexes closed mixed on Thursday, with Germany's DAX30 index closing up 0.65% on Thursday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.19%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.23%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.50%.</p><p>4. Most European stocks closed down. German DAX30 bucked the trend and rose 0.27%</p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.27%, UK<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It fell 0.01%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.17%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.17%, Spain's IBEX35 index fell 0.30%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 0.30%.</p><p>The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.24, or 1.5%, to close at $79.98 a barrel. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil futures rose by 4.9% this week.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.3% on Friday, up 3.2% this week.</p><p>Gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.60, or 0.3%, to close at $1,809.60 an ounce.</p><p>According to the most active contract, the price of gold futures rose by 3.2% this week.</p><p>Macro News</p><p>1. The balance of outstanding federal government debt in the United States reached $31.41 trillion, exceeding the upper limit</p><p>On December 2, local time, according to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, the balance of outstanding U.S. federal government debt has reached $31.41 trillion.</p><p>It is reported that the U.S. Treasury Bond exceeded 30 trillion US dollars in February 2022 and 31 trillion US dollars in October. At present, the debt ceiling of the United States is US $31.4 trillion, and the existing Treasury Bond of the United States have exceeded the ceiling, resulting in debt default.</p><p>2. The U.S. labor force participation rate is falling again, and more people are leaving the workplace</p><p>The U.S. labor force participation rate fell for the third consecutive month in November, highlighting the challenges companies face in finding enough employees.</p><p>The percentage of Americans working or actively looking for a job fell to 62.1%, according to government data released Friday. The ratio rose to 62.4% in August, matching the post-pandemic high set in March, but still well below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>3. U.S. President Biden signs a bill to avoid national railway worker strikes</p><p>On December 2, local time, U.S. President Biden signed a bill to avoid strikes among railway workers across the country to resolve labor disputes among railway workers.</p><p>It is reported that the House of Representatives passed the bill on November 30, local time, and the Senate also voted to pass it on December 1 and submitted it to Biden. Without this bill, railroad workers across the United States may go on strike as early as December 9th, which will lead to a series of problems such as goods shortages, soaring prices and factory shutdowns.</p><p>4. Poland agrees to the EU's maximum price limit for Russian seaborne oil at US $60 per barrel</p><p>According to German media reports on December 2, local time, Poland has agreed to the EU's maximum price limit for Russian seaborne oil at US $60 per barrel. The final decision will take effect after the official announcement.</p><p>5. The German Chancellor discusses measures to deal with high inflation and high energy prices with business representatives</p><p>On December 2, local time, German Federal Chancellor Scholz exchanged views with the CEOs of many large German companies at the Chancellery on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the German economy.</p><p>The meeting focused on measures to mitigate the effects of high inflation, such as providing inflation compensation, where businesses can pay employees a subsidy of up to 3,000 euros, which is tax-free, while employees can be compensated for their actual income loss.</p><p>Participants also discussed the impact of high energy prices.</p><p>6. The cold winter is approaching and the wind force is insufficient. European electricity and gas prices are both rising</p><p>As winter hits, wind power generation in Europe has dropped sharply, pushing up electricity and natural gas prices and highlighting the fragility of the continent's energy system.</p><p>Currently, European consumers and businesses are particularly sensitive to soaring energy bills. Energy traders have been keeping an eye on weather conditions, because the weather can greatly affect the supply and demand of natural gas, and can also cause the price to fluctuate sharply.</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, European natural gas prices have risen sharply, rising by more than 13% on Thursday, reaching the highest level since October 13. Temperatures across Europe are dropping this month after a relatively mild November.</p><p>7. OPEC crude oil production fell to 28.79 million barrels per day in November, the largest drop in nearly two years</p><p>OPEC crude oil production recorded its biggest drop since 2020 in November to meet the latest production reduction agreement reached by OPEC +. The survey showed that all OPEC members cut production by slightly more than 1 million barrels per day that month, bringing total production down to 28.79 million barrels. Among them, Saudi Arabia reduced production by 470,000 barrels per day to 10.44 million barrels per day, and other Gulf oil-producing countries also followed suit. OPCE + will hold its next regular meeting on December 4 and is expected to maintain existing production capacity unchanged. Previously, U.S. President Biden had urged OPEC to increase crude oil supply.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288971479\" target=\"_blank\">Following Tesla and BMW, Volkswagen to Build EVs in China for Export to Europe</a></p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen said that its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will produce its first electric SUV model, the Tavascan, at a joint venture factory in Anhui. Volkswagen's move is due to limited production capacity in the German domestic market. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that by 2025, China-made cars could sell as much as 800,000 units in Europe, most of which are pure electric vehicles.</p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen issued a statement saying that its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will produce its first electric SUV model, the Tavascan, at a Volkswagen joint venture factory in Anhui.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288967004\" target=\"_blank\">The talent war is in the past $JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, etc. are reported to be slashing bonuses for investment banking departments</a></p><p>Across Wall Street, pessimistic expectations for bankers' bonuses are quickly coming true, shrinking investment banking activities have put an end to the competition for talents, and enterprises have regained the upper hand in fixing salaries.</p><p>According to informed sources, JPMorgan Chase,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And Citigroup are considering cutting bonus pools for investment bankers by as much as 30%. Some companies plan to pay no bonuses at all to employees who perform poorly. Sources said the proposals are still under discussion and may be adjusted in the coming weeks.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288296703\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer invests 2.4 billion euros in Europe to expand production in preparation for decline in COVID-19 product revenue</a></p><p>On Friday local time, Pfizer announced that it would invest 1.2 billion euros to expand factory production capacity in the Pierce region of Belgium. The company had just announced on Thursday that it would invest the same scale of funds to expand the production of its Dublin factory in Ireland.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1120601796\" target=\"_blank\">Two months ruined the good results of the first three quarters, Bridgewater Fund's annual return rate lost more than half</a></p><p>Hedge fund giant Bridgewater was expected to achieve its best annual performance in more than a decade. As a result, the fourth quarter became its Waterloo, and most of the returns achieved in the first three quarters were fully returned.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, the Pure Alpha Fund fell 13.2% in the fourth quarter ended November 25, and its cumulative increase this year has dropped to 6%. In the first three quarters, the fund soared 22%, which was expected to surpass the 27% in 2010 and hit the biggest annual increase in 12 years. This fund product is a low-leverage version of Bridgewater Fund Pure Alpha II.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | Big intraday reversal after the employment report! China Concept Index rose more than 20% this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | Big intraday reversal after the employment report! China Concept Index rose more than 20% this week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-03 08:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Non-agricultural data strengthened the Fed's rate hike expectations, and the Dow turned up thrillingly; ② The China Concept Index rose by more than 20% this week. Overseas market</p><p>1. Non-agricultural data strengthens Fed rate hike expectations, U.S. stocks close mixed</p><p>Stocks closed mixed on Friday, with all three major indexes recording gains this week. The number of non-farm payrolls and wage increases in the United States in November both exceeded expectations, indicating that inflationary pressures will be high in the future. The Federal Reserve still needs to continue to curb inflation, and may accumulate another 100 basis points of rate hike in the future.</p><p>The Dow rose 34.87 points, or 0.10%, to 34429.88 points; The Nasdaq fell 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11461.50 points; The S&P 500 index fell 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4071.70 points. This week, the Dow rose 0.24%, the S&P 500 rose 1.13%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.09%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rise more than 33% Bilibili rose more than 16%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose on Friday, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rising 5.39%. The index rose more than 22% this week, its largest weekly gain since mid-March.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">Suntech Agency</a>It rose by more than 50%, Zhihu rose by more than 33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Interesting headlines</a>Up by more than 30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Rose more than 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">Best Group</a>Rose more than 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>, educate together,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>, Fog Core Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Rose more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">Tuya Smart</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAT\">Atour</a>Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>, Leju rose more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Up more than 10%.</p><p>3. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.5% on Friday and rose 4.9% this week</p><p>Major European stock indexes closed mixed on Thursday, with Germany's DAX30 index closing up 0.65% on Thursday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.19%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.23%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.50%.</p><p>4. Most European stocks closed down. German DAX30 bucked the trend and rose 0.27%</p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.27%, UK<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It fell 0.01%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.17%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.17%, Spain's IBEX35 index fell 0.30%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 0.30%.</p><p>The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.24, or 1.5%, to close at $79.98 a barrel. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil futures rose by 4.9% this week.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.3% on Friday, up 3.2% this week.</p><p>Gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.60, or 0.3%, to close at $1,809.60 an ounce.</p><p>According to the most active contract, the price of gold futures rose by 3.2% this week.</p><p>Macro News</p><p>1. The balance of outstanding federal government debt in the United States reached $31.41 trillion, exceeding the upper limit</p><p>On December 2, local time, according to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, the balance of outstanding U.S. federal government debt has reached $31.41 trillion.</p><p>It is reported that the U.S. Treasury Bond exceeded 30 trillion US dollars in February 2022 and 31 trillion US dollars in October. At present, the debt ceiling of the United States is US $31.4 trillion, and the existing Treasury Bond of the United States have exceeded the ceiling, resulting in debt default.</p><p>2. The U.S. labor force participation rate is falling again, and more people are leaving the workplace</p><p>The U.S. labor force participation rate fell for the third consecutive month in November, highlighting the challenges companies face in finding enough employees.</p><p>The percentage of Americans working or actively looking for a job fell to 62.1%, according to government data released Friday. The ratio rose to 62.4% in August, matching the post-pandemic high set in March, but still well below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>3. U.S. President Biden signs a bill to avoid national railway worker strikes</p><p>On December 2, local time, U.S. President Biden signed a bill to avoid strikes among railway workers across the country to resolve labor disputes among railway workers.</p><p>It is reported that the House of Representatives passed the bill on November 30, local time, and the Senate also voted to pass it on December 1 and submitted it to Biden. Without this bill, railroad workers across the United States may go on strike as early as December 9th, which will lead to a series of problems such as goods shortages, soaring prices and factory shutdowns.</p><p>4. Poland agrees to the EU's maximum price limit for Russian seaborne oil at US $60 per barrel</p><p>According to German media reports on December 2, local time, Poland has agreed to the EU's maximum price limit for Russian seaborne oil at US $60 per barrel. The final decision will take effect after the official announcement.</p><p>5. The German Chancellor discusses measures to deal with high inflation and high energy prices with business representatives</p><p>On December 2, local time, German Federal Chancellor Scholz exchanged views with the CEOs of many large German companies at the Chancellery on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the German economy.</p><p>The meeting focused on measures to mitigate the effects of high inflation, such as providing inflation compensation, where businesses can pay employees a subsidy of up to 3,000 euros, which is tax-free, while employees can be compensated for their actual income loss.</p><p>Participants also discussed the impact of high energy prices.</p><p>6. The cold winter is approaching and the wind force is insufficient. European electricity and gas prices are both rising</p><p>As winter hits, wind power generation in Europe has dropped sharply, pushing up electricity and natural gas prices and highlighting the fragility of the continent's energy system.</p><p>Currently, European consumers and businesses are particularly sensitive to soaring energy bills. Energy traders have been keeping an eye on weather conditions, because the weather can greatly affect the supply and demand of natural gas, and can also cause the price to fluctuate sharply.</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, European natural gas prices have risen sharply, rising by more than 13% on Thursday, reaching the highest level since October 13. Temperatures across Europe are dropping this month after a relatively mild November.</p><p>7. OPEC crude oil production fell to 28.79 million barrels per day in November, the largest drop in nearly two years</p><p>OPEC crude oil production recorded its biggest drop since 2020 in November to meet the latest production reduction agreement reached by OPEC +. The survey showed that all OPEC members cut production by slightly more than 1 million barrels per day that month, bringing total production down to 28.79 million barrels. Among them, Saudi Arabia reduced production by 470,000 barrels per day to 10.44 million barrels per day, and other Gulf oil-producing countries also followed suit. OPCE + will hold its next regular meeting on December 4 and is expected to maintain existing production capacity unchanged. Previously, U.S. President Biden had urged OPEC to increase crude oil supply.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288971479\" target=\"_blank\">Following Tesla and BMW, Volkswagen to Build EVs in China for Export to Europe</a></p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen said that its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will produce its first electric SUV model, the Tavascan, at a joint venture factory in Anhui. Volkswagen's move is due to limited production capacity in the German domestic market. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that by 2025, China-made cars could sell as much as 800,000 units in Europe, most of which are pure electric vehicles.</p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen issued a statement saying that its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will produce its first electric SUV model, the Tavascan, at a Volkswagen joint venture factory in Anhui.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288967004\" target=\"_blank\">The talent war is in the past $JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, etc. are reported to be slashing bonuses for investment banking departments</a></p><p>Across Wall Street, pessimistic expectations for bankers' bonuses are quickly coming true, shrinking investment banking activities have put an end to the competition for talents, and enterprises have regained the upper hand in fixing salaries.</p><p>According to informed sources, JPMorgan Chase,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And Citigroup are considering cutting bonus pools for investment bankers by as much as 30%. Some companies plan to pay no bonuses at all to employees who perform poorly. Sources said the proposals are still under discussion and may be adjusted in the coming weeks.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288296703\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer invests 2.4 billion euros in Europe to expand production in preparation for decline in COVID-19 product revenue</a></p><p>On Friday local time, Pfizer announced that it would invest 1.2 billion euros to expand factory production capacity in the Pierce region of Belgium. The company had just announced on Thursday that it would invest the same scale of funds to expand the production of its Dublin factory in Ireland.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1120601796\" target=\"_blank\">Two months ruined the good results of the first three quarters, Bridgewater Fund's annual return rate lost more than half</a></p><p>Hedge fund giant Bridgewater was expected to achieve its best annual performance in more than a decade. As a result, the fourth quarter became its Waterloo, and most of the returns achieved in the first three quarters were fully returned.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, the Pure Alpha Fund fell 13.2% in the fourth quarter ended November 25, and its cumulative increase this year has dropped to 6%. In the first three quarters, the fund soared 22%, which was expected to surpass the 27% in 2010 and hit the biggest annual increase in 12 years. This fund product is a low-leverage version of Bridgewater Fund Pure Alpha II.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117962450","content_text":"摘要：①非农数据强化联储加息预期，道指惊险转涨；②中概指数本周大涨逾20%。海外行情1、非农数据强化联储加息预期美股收盘涨跌不一股周五收盘涨跌不一，三大股指本周均录得涨幅。美国11月非农就业人数与薪资增幅均超预期，预示着未来通胀压力高企，美联储仍需继续遏制通胀，未来可能累计再加息100个基点。道指涨34.87点，涨幅为0.10%，报34429.88点；纳指跌20.95点，跌幅为0.18%，报11461.50点；标普500指数跌4.87点，跌幅为0.12%，报4071.70点。本周道指上涨0.24%，标普500指数上涨1.13%，纳指上涨2.09%。2、周五热门中概股普涨知乎涨超33%B站涨超16%周五热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克金龙指数涨5.39%。该指数本周累涨超22%，创3月中旬以来最大单周涨幅。尚德机构涨超50%，知乎涨超33%，趣头条涨超30%，哔哩哔哩涨超16%、百世集团涨超16%，途牛、一起教育、叮咚买菜涨超15%，小鹏汽车、爱奇艺、雾芯科技、金山云涨超14%，涂鸦智能、亚朵集团、高途、乐居涨超11%，小牛电动涨超10%。3、美国WTI原油周五收跌1.5% 本周上涨4.9%欧股主要指数周四收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX30指数周四收涨0.65%，英国富时100指数跌0.19%，法国CAC40指数涨0.23%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.50%。4、欧股多数收跌 德国DAX30逆势涨0.27%德国DAX30指数涨0.27%，英国富时100指数跌0.01%，法国CAC40指数跌0.17%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.17%，西班牙IBEX35指数跌0.30%，意大利富时MIB指数跌0.30%。纽约商品交易所1月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌1.24美元，跌幅为1.5%，报收于每桶79.98美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周WTI原油期货累计上涨4.9%。5、纽约黄金期货周五收跌0.3% 本周累计上涨3.2%纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期货价格下跌5.60美元，跌幅为0.3%，报收于每盎司1809.60美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周黄金期货价格累计上涨3.2%。宏观新闻1、美国未偿联邦政府债务余额达31.41万亿美元 已超上限当地时间12月2日，据美国财政部的数据，美国未偿联邦政府债务余额已达到31.41万亿美元。据悉，美国国债于2022年2月份超过30万亿美元，于10月份超过31万亿美元。目前美国债务上限为31.4万亿美元，美国现有国债已超过上限，出现债务违约。2、美国劳动力参与率再次下降 越来越多人离开职场美国11月劳动力参与率连续第三个月下降，凸显出企业在寻找足够员工方面的挑战。根据周五公布的政府数据，在职或积极寻找工作的美国人比例降至62.1%。8月份该比例曾升至62.4%，追平了3月份创下的疫情后高点，但仍远低于大流行病爆发前的水平。3、美国总统拜登签署一项法案 避免全国铁路工人罢工当地时间12月2日，美国总统拜登签署了一项避免全国铁路工人罢工的法案，以解决铁路工人劳资纠纷问题。据悉，众议院于当地时间11月30日通过这项法案，参议院于12月1日也投票通过，并提交给拜登。如果没有该法案，全美铁路工人最早可能在12月9日实施罢工，这将导致货物短缺、物价飙升和工厂停产等一系列问题。4、波兰同意欧盟对俄海运石油最高限价为每桶60美元据德国媒体当地时间12月2日报道，波兰已同意欧盟对俄海运石油最高限价为每桶60美元。最终决定将在官方公布之后生效。5、德国总理与企业代表讨论高通胀和高能源价格应对措施当地时间12月2日，德国联邦总理朔尔茨在总理府与德国多家大型企业的首席执行官就俄乌冲突对德国经济的影响交换了意见。会议重点讨论了减轻高通胀影响的措施，如提供通货膨胀补偿，企业可以向员工支付高达3000欧元的补贴，这笔款项可以免税，而员工的实际收入损失可以得到补偿。与会者还讨论了高能源价格的影响。6、寒冬来袭风力不足 欧洲电价和气价双双攀升寒冬来袭之际，欧洲风力发电却大幅下降，这推高了电价和天然气价格，也凸显出欧洲大陆的能源系统的脆弱性。当前，欧洲消费者和企业对飙升的能源账单格外敏感。能源交易员一直关注着天气状况，因为天气会极大地影响天然气的供需，也会导致价格的大起大落。本周以来，欧洲天然气价格接连大涨，周四一度涨逾13%，达到10月13日以来的最高水平。在经历了相对温和的11月之后，欧洲各地的气温本月正在下降。7、OPEC原油产量11月降至2879万桶/日 创近两年最大降幅OPEC原油产量在11月创下了自2020年以来的最大降幅，以满足此前OPEC+达成的最新减产协议。调查显示当月OPEC所有成员国合计减产幅度略超过100万桶/日，令总产量降至2879万桶。其中沙特减产47万桶/日至1044万桶/日，其他海湾产油国也跟进减产。OPCE+将在12月4日举行下一次例会，预计将维持现有产能不变。而此前美国总统拜登曾敦促OPEC增加原油供给量。公司新闻1、效仿特斯拉和宝马，大众汽车将在中国生产出口欧洲的电动汽车周五，大众汽车表示，旗下的西班牙子品牌Cupra，将在大众汽车位于安徽的一家合资工厂生产首款电动SUV车型Tavascan。大众此举是由于德国国内市场产能有限。普华永道预计，到2025年，中国制造的汽车在欧洲的销量可能高达80万辆，其中大部分是纯电动汽车。周五，大众汽车发布声明表示，旗下的西班牙子品牌Cupra，将在大众汽车位于安徽的一家合资工厂生产首款电动SUV车型Tavascan。2、人才战已是过去时$摩根大通、美银等据悉将大砍投行部门奖金在整个华尔街，对银行家奖金的悲观预期正在迅速应验，投行业务活动的萎缩令人才争夺战偃旗息鼓，企业在定薪方面重新站到上风。知情人士透露，摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团都在考虑将投资银行家的奖金池削减多达30%。一些公司计划对绩效差的员工完全不发奖金。消息人士称这些提议仍在讨论之中，未来几周可能会有所调整。3、辉瑞向欧洲投资24亿欧元扩产 为新冠产品营收下滑做准备当地时间周五，辉瑞宣布将投资12亿欧元扩大比利时皮尔斯地区的工厂产能。公司此前在周四刚宣布投入同等规模的资金扩产爱尔兰都柏林工厂。4、两个月毁了前三季度的好成绩 桥水基金年回报率折损大半对冲基金巨头桥水原本有望创下十余年来最佳年度业绩表现，结果第四季度成为其滑铁卢，前三季度取得的大部分回报被悉数回吐。据知情人士透露，Pure Alpha基金在截至11月25日的第四季度下跌13.2%，今年以来累计涨幅降至6%。前三季度该基金飙升22%，本有望超越2010年的27%创下十二年来最大年涨幅。这款基金产品是桥水基金Pure Alpha II的低杠杆版本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964995722,"gmtCreate":1670045891167,"gmtModify":1676538295257,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964995722","repostId":"1176155439","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176155439","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670035708,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176155439?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 10:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The G7 finally reached a price ceiling on Russian oil, why is it $60?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176155439","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：该价格上限旨在达成一种微妙的平衡：即在限制俄罗斯石油出口收入的同时，不减少俄罗斯对全球市场的出货量。在经历激烈的拉锯后，欧盟本周五终于同意将俄罗斯石油的价格上限设定为60美元/桶。这低于媒体此前","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The price cap aims to strike a delicate balance: that is, while limiting Russian oil export revenue, it does not reduce Russian shipments to the global market. After a fierce tug-of-war, the European Union finally agreed on Friday to set a price cap on Russian oil at $60/barrel. This is lower than the upper limit of US $65-70/barrel previously exposed by the media.</p><p>There are long-standing disagreements within the EU over the price cap. For the previous proposal of US $65-70/barrel, countries such as Poland that are eager to control domestic energy costs feel that it is too high and unlikely to be triggered (hopefully around US $20/barrel); Countries with huge oil maritime industries, such as Cyprus, think it is too low (hopefully above $70/barrel).</p><p>Media analysts believe that the upper price of US $60/barrel aims to achieve a delicate balance:<b>That is to say, while restricting Russian oil export revenue, Russian shipments to the global market will not be reduced.</b></p><p>According to U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Elizabeth Rosenberg, the price of $60/barrel is the result of comprehensive historical data, and the price should also be higher than Russia's marginal production cost.</p><p>In terms of data, the selling price of Russian Urals crude oil based on Brent crude oil in 2019 was between US $50 and US $70. According to Russian official data, the marginal production cost of domestic crude oil determined by the Russian government is US $44/barrel (the West believes that the actual data may be slightly higher).</p><p>Under the new mechanism, the price of US $60/barrel will be adjusted. The new mechanism allows the price cap to be revised every two months. From mid-January 2023, the EU will evaluate and revise the price cap every two months,<b>To ensure that any post-reset price cap is at least 5% lower than the average market price.</b></p><p>At the same time, the EU will set a 45-day transition period before introducing a price cap. The transition period will apply to oil loaded before December 5, the date when the oil sanctions will take effect, and the oil should be unloaded before January 19. In addition, if any changes to the oil price cap in the future, there will be a 90-day transition period.</p><p>The EU's price cap has reached a consensus, paving the way for an agreement by the Group of Seven (G7). After the relevant EU agreements are formally adopted, they still need to be approved by G7. According to people familiar with the matter, the price of $60 is within the range agreed by G7.</p><p>Most G7 countries will stop importing Russian crude by the end of this year. The European Union will impose a ban on other refined petroleum products originating in Russia in February next year, while placing a cap on these commodities.</p><p>But the specific practical effect of the price cap remains to be seen. James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics, said,<b>Given that US $60/barrel is already close to the actual purchase price of major Russian oil purchasing countries such as India, the price ceiling will \"have a relatively small impact\".</b>Russia has warned that it will not sell crude oil to any country that signs the price cap.</p><p>The U.S. government is currently worried that if the price ceiling is too strict, it may lead to a sharp surge in global oil prices. Given that global oil demand is extremely inelastic, even a supply-demand imbalance of hundreds of thousands of barrels per day could cause oil prices to soar,<b>In the end, I'm afraid it will be a backlash against Europe.</b>Former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin even bluntly said that it was \"ridiculous\" for the West to set a ceiling on Russian oil prices.</p><p>For large Russian oil buyers such as India and Turkey, the price ceiling does not seem to be binding. India's Minister of Oil and Natural Gas has previously stated that he will continue to buy oil from Russia and will buy oil from anywhere.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The G7 finally reached a price ceiling on Russian oil, why is it $60?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe G7 finally reached a price ceiling on Russian oil, why is it $60?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-03 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The price cap aims to strike a delicate balance: that is, while limiting Russian oil export revenue, it does not reduce Russian shipments to the global market. After a fierce tug-of-war, the European Union finally agreed on Friday to set a price cap on Russian oil at $60/barrel. This is lower than the upper limit of US $65-70/barrel previously exposed by the media.</p><p>There are long-standing disagreements within the EU over the price cap. For the previous proposal of US $65-70/barrel, countries such as Poland that are eager to control domestic energy costs feel that it is too high and unlikely to be triggered (hopefully around US $20/barrel); Countries with huge oil maritime industries, such as Cyprus, think it is too low (hopefully above $70/barrel).</p><p>Media analysts believe that the upper price of US $60/barrel aims to achieve a delicate balance:<b>That is to say, while restricting Russian oil export revenue, Russian shipments to the global market will not be reduced.</b></p><p>According to U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Elizabeth Rosenberg, the price of $60/barrel is the result of comprehensive historical data, and the price should also be higher than Russia's marginal production cost.</p><p>In terms of data, the selling price of Russian Urals crude oil based on Brent crude oil in 2019 was between US $50 and US $70. According to Russian official data, the marginal production cost of domestic crude oil determined by the Russian government is US $44/barrel (the West believes that the actual data may be slightly higher).</p><p>Under the new mechanism, the price of US $60/barrel will be adjusted. The new mechanism allows the price cap to be revised every two months. From mid-January 2023, the EU will evaluate and revise the price cap every two months,<b>To ensure that any post-reset price cap is at least 5% lower than the average market price.</b></p><p>At the same time, the EU will set a 45-day transition period before introducing a price cap. The transition period will apply to oil loaded before December 5, the date when the oil sanctions will take effect, and the oil should be unloaded before January 19. In addition, if any changes to the oil price cap in the future, there will be a 90-day transition period.</p><p>The EU's price cap has reached a consensus, paving the way for an agreement by the Group of Seven (G7). After the relevant EU agreements are formally adopted, they still need to be approved by G7. According to people familiar with the matter, the price of $60 is within the range agreed by G7.</p><p>Most G7 countries will stop importing Russian crude by the end of this year. The European Union will impose a ban on other refined petroleum products originating in Russia in February next year, while placing a cap on these commodities.</p><p>But the specific practical effect of the price cap remains to be seen. James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics, said,<b>Given that US $60/barrel is already close to the actual purchase price of major Russian oil purchasing countries such as India, the price ceiling will \"have a relatively small impact\".</b>Russia has warned that it will not sell crude oil to any country that signs the price cap.</p><p>The U.S. government is currently worried that if the price ceiling is too strict, it may lead to a sharp surge in global oil prices. Given that global oil demand is extremely inelastic, even a supply-demand imbalance of hundreds of thousands of barrels per day could cause oil prices to soar,<b>In the end, I'm afraid it will be a backlash against Europe.</b>Former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin even bluntly said that it was \"ridiculous\" for the West to set a ceiling on Russian oil prices.</p><p>For large Russian oil buyers such as India and Turkey, the price ceiling does not seem to be binding. India's Minister of Oil and Natural Gas has previously stated that he will continue to buy oil from Russia and will buy oil from anywhere.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676563\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50ab1228da008e61faa75a03abe0e560","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676563","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176155439","content_text":"摘要：该价格上限旨在达成一种微妙的平衡：即在限制俄罗斯石油出口收入的同时，不减少俄罗斯对全球市场的出货量。在经历激烈的拉锯后，欧盟本周五终于同意将俄罗斯石油的价格上限设定为60美元/桶。这低于媒体此前曝出的65—70美元/桶上限水平。欧盟内部对于价格上限长期存在分歧。对于此前65—70美元/桶议案，波兰等急于控制国内能源成本的国家觉得过高，不太可能被触发（希望20美元/桶左右）；而塞浦路斯等拥有庞大石油海运业的国家则认为太低（希望70美元/桶以上）。媒体分析认为，60美元/桶的上限价格旨在达成一种微妙的平衡：即在限制俄罗斯石油出口收入的同时，不减少俄罗斯对全球市场的出货量。根据美国财政部助理部长Elizabeth Rosenberg的观点，60美元/桶的价格是综合历史数据得出的结果，该价格同时应该高于俄罗斯的边际生产成本。数据方面，基于布伦特原油的俄罗斯乌拉尔原油2019年的出售价格在50—70美元之间。而根据俄罗斯官方的数据，俄罗斯政府确定的本国原油边际生产成本为44美元/桶（西方认为实际数据可能略高）。新的机制下，60美元/桶的价格还会进行调整。新机制允许每两个月修改一次价格上限。从2023年1月中旬起，欧盟将每两个月对价格上限进行评估和修订，以确保任何重置后的价格上限，都比平均市场价格低至少5%。欧盟同时将设置45天的过渡期，之后再引入价格上限。过渡期将适用于在12月5日之前装载的石油，即石油制裁将开始生效的日期，并且这些石油应当在1月19日之前卸载。此外，如果未来石油价格上限发生任何变化，都需要有90天的过渡期。欧盟的价格上限达成共识，为七国集团（G7）的协议铺平道路。欧盟相关协议正式通过后，还需要得到G7的批准。知情人士透露，60美元的价格在G7同意的范围内。大多数G7国家将在今年年底前停止进口俄罗斯原油。欧盟将于明年2月对源自俄罗斯的其他精炼石油产品实施禁令，同时对这些商品设置上限。但价格上限的具体实际效果还有待观察。WTRG Economics能源经济学家 James Williams表示，鉴于60美元/桶已经接近印度等俄油采购大国实际购买价格，价格上限将“产生相对较小的影响”。俄罗斯方面已经警告，不会向签署价格上限的任何国家出售原油。美国政府目前担心，价格上限如果过于严格，可能导致全球油价大幅飙升。鉴于全球石油需求极度缺乏弹性，即使是每天几十万桶的供需失衡也可能导致油价飙升，最后结果，恐怕是对欧洲形成反噬。前财长姆努钦甚至直言，西方设定对俄石油价格上限“荒谬可笑”。而对于印度、土耳其等俄油大买家而言，价格上限似乎没有约束力。印度石油和天然气部长此前已经表态，将继续从俄罗斯购买石油，将从任何地方购买石油。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965324043,"gmtCreate":1669899320683,"gmtModify":1676538265872,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965324043","repostId":"1131592336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131592336","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669888770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131592336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-01 17:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Global debt costs soar! What does it mean?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131592336","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A violent storm is brewing. The era of cheap money is rapidly becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. At present, many countries are in high debt and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) recently, the total global debt in the third quarter was US $290 trillion. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>As central banks continue their rate hike, borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments continue to rise, and economic and financial market risks pile up.</p><p>From the government level, compared with developed countries, emerging markets face greater debt risks, especially those countries that borrow a lot of dollar debt. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing up in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage expenditure is the heaviest burden for most families, so it is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>Worst-case scenario,<b>Some components of the global financial system may collapse.</b>From the large-scale bankruptcy of Japanese enterprises in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debts turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries survived the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been increasing, and a large part of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to already heavily indebted households.</b></p><p>Such \"time bombs\" no longer exist after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but they do in other countries.</p><p>For example, Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the countries with the highest household debt in the world, with a household debt-to-income ratio of 180%. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund after some borrowers had begun cutting payments.</p><p>At present, the ratio of household debt to income in Australia exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgage loans in the second quarter of this year were in a fragile financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached 6 times or higher.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). In Holland, Sweden and Norway, debt repayment as a proportion of household income is already much higher than this figure. If central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this proportion will exceed 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Joe Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, recently said that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand will also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, household debt, which accounts for more than 40% of mortgage loans, reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about 9.8989 trillion yuan) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters, and maintaining growth for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. A recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous baseline (100%). Private debt is mainly household debt.</p><p><b>More businesses will become insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF data, companies (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments and are the largest borrowers in the era of cheap money, but unlike governments, companies cannot solve debt crises by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has hit some so-called \"zombie companies\" the hardest, which generally can only make just enough money to repay their debts. In some ways, about one in five publicly traded companies already fit that definition when interest rates were low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", and the companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>The default rate of global junk bonds will almost double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the US $6.7 trillion high-rated corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. small and medium-sized businesses that tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. With the Fed's rate hike peaking early next year, they are likely to be forced to lay off staff. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment of the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, both stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that Federal Funds rate would be close to 5% during the lifetime of these deals.</b><b>The minutes of the November Federal Reserve FOMC meeting released last week showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden leverage\" in the non-bank sector that could undermine the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are even more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnamese and Indonesian real estate bond prices fell sharply; South Korea's Legoland default in October triggered panic selling in the credit market, and it also aggravated people's fears of default by real estate companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies usually don't face the same direct challenges to households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that doesn't mean they are impeccable.</p><p>Take the United Kingdom as an example. Former Prime Minister Truss's large-scale tax reduction plan almost collapsed the domestic Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the UK financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government still faces the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>Italy's public debt problem is almost the biggest headache among advanced economies.</b>According to the data previously released by Eurostat, by the end of the first quarter of this year, Italian government debt accounted for 152.6% of GDP, second only to Greece's 189.3%. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>By 2030, the interest that the government alone needs to pay will exceed 7% of GDP.</b></p><p>The United States may also face political difficulties on its debt issue. Faced with \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way for the Biden administration at present is to raise the debt ceiling, which requires the support of Republicans. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, domestic bank interest rates in the United States will soar, the stock market will plummet, and pension accounts will shrink sharply, and the U.S. economy will suffer a fatal blow.</p><p>In contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>Data released by the IIF last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, comparable to the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or face high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global debt costs soar! What does it mean?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal debt costs soar! What does it mean?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-01 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A violent storm is brewing. The era of cheap money is rapidly becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. At present, many countries are in high debt and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) recently, the total global debt in the third quarter was US $290 trillion. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>As central banks continue their rate hike, borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments continue to rise, and economic and financial market risks pile up.</p><p>From the government level, compared with developed countries, emerging markets face greater debt risks, especially those countries that borrow a lot of dollar debt. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing up in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage expenditure is the heaviest burden for most families, so it is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>Worst-case scenario,<b>Some components of the global financial system may collapse.</b>From the large-scale bankruptcy of Japanese enterprises in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debts turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries survived the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been increasing, and a large part of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to already heavily indebted households.</b></p><p>Such \"time bombs\" no longer exist after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but they do in other countries.</p><p>For example, Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the countries with the highest household debt in the world, with a household debt-to-income ratio of 180%. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund after some borrowers had begun cutting payments.</p><p>At present, the ratio of household debt to income in Australia exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgage loans in the second quarter of this year were in a fragile financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached 6 times or higher.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). In Holland, Sweden and Norway, debt repayment as a proportion of household income is already much higher than this figure. If central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this proportion will exceed 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Joe Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, recently said that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand will also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, household debt, which accounts for more than 40% of mortgage loans, reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about 9.8989 trillion yuan) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters, and maintaining growth for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. A recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous baseline (100%). Private debt is mainly household debt.</p><p><b>More businesses will become insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF data, companies (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments and are the largest borrowers in the era of cheap money, but unlike governments, companies cannot solve debt crises by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has hit some so-called \"zombie companies\" the hardest, which generally can only make just enough money to repay their debts. In some ways, about one in five publicly traded companies already fit that definition when interest rates were low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", and the companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>The default rate of global junk bonds will almost double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the US $6.7 trillion high-rated corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. small and medium-sized businesses that tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. With the Fed's rate hike peaking early next year, they are likely to be forced to lay off staff. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment of the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, both stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that Federal Funds rate would be close to 5% during the lifetime of these deals.</b><b>The minutes of the November Federal Reserve FOMC meeting released last week showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden leverage\" in the non-bank sector that could undermine the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are even more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnamese and Indonesian real estate bond prices fell sharply; South Korea's Legoland default in October triggered panic selling in the credit market, and it also aggravated people's fears of default by real estate companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies usually don't face the same direct challenges to households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that doesn't mean they are impeccable.</p><p>Take the United Kingdom as an example. Former Prime Minister Truss's large-scale tax reduction plan almost collapsed the domestic Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the UK financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government still faces the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>Italy's public debt problem is almost the biggest headache among advanced economies.</b>According to the data previously released by Eurostat, by the end of the first quarter of this year, Italian government debt accounted for 152.6% of GDP, second only to Greece's 189.3%. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>By 2030, the interest that the government alone needs to pay will exceed 7% of GDP.</b></p><p>The United States may also face political difficulties on its debt issue. Faced with \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way for the Biden administration at present is to raise the debt ceiling, which requires the support of Republicans. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, domestic bank interest rates in the United States will soar, the stock market will plummet, and pension accounts will shrink sharply, and the U.S. economy will suffer a fatal blow.</p><p>In contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>Data released by the IIF last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, comparable to the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or face high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131592336","content_text":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债务总额三季度为290万亿美元，虽然较年初的历史高位有所下降，但仍比十年前增加了三分之一以上。随着各国央行继续加息，家庭、企业和政府的借贷成本继续上升，经济和金融市场风险堆积如山。从政府层面来看，相较于发达国家，新兴市场面临的债务风险更大，尤其是那些大量借入美元债的国家。至于企业，信贷紧缩的迹象已经在全球金融领域显现出来。而对消费者而言，房贷支出是多数家庭最沉重的负担，因此这也是最危险的地方。最坏的情况是，全球金融体系中的某些组成部分可能会崩溃。从上世纪90年代日本企业大规模破产，到之后几十年的美国次贷危机和欧债危机，债务变成坏账的例子比比皆是。被房贷“压垮”的家庭有些国家在大衰退中躲过了房地产和银行业的崩溃，因此国内家庭债务一直在增加，并且有很大一部分是浮动利率抵押贷款，这也意味着央行更高的利率会迅速传导到已经负债累累的家庭身上。美国家庭经历过次贷危机后已经不存在这样的“定时炸弹”了，TS Lombard经济学家Dario Perkins最近表示，但其他国家存在这种情况。比如加拿大、澳大利亚和韩国。加拿大是世界上家庭负债最高的国家之一，家庭债务与收入比高达180%。最近，总部位于多伦多的房地产贷款机构Romspen Investment Corp.暂停了对其最大抵押贷款基金的赎回，原因是一些借款人已经开始断供。澳大利亚家庭负债与收入之比目前超过了200%，近期，该国金融监管机构估计，今年二季度办理抵押贷款的客户有22%财政状况比较脆弱，因为他们的债务收入比达到6倍或更高。在英国，大多数抵押贷款的利率将在两到三年后重新调整，债务偿还额有望超过所有家庭收入的10% (不仅仅是抵押贷款借款)。在荷兰、瑞典和挪威，债务偿还额占家庭收入比例已经远远高于这一数字，如果各国央行按照预期继续加息，这一比例将超15%迈进。亚洲方面，惠誉评级亚太区银行评级主管乔Jonathan Cornish近期表示，韩国、马来西亚和泰国等国家的房贷者也将受到挤压。在韩国，房贷占比超过40%的家庭负债在9月底高达1870.6万亿韩元(约合人民币9.8989万亿元)，连续两个季度刷新历史最高纪录，自2013年第二季度以来连续38个季度保持增势。IMF近期报告也显示，今年二季度，韩国民间负债与GDP的比率为173.6%，远远超过IMF的危险基准线(100%)。民间负债以家庭负债为主。违约飙升，更多企业将资不抵债根据IIF的数据，企业(金融行业以外)与政府齐头并进，都是廉价资金时代的最大借款人，但与政府不同的是，企业不能通过印钞来解决债务危机。今年债务成本飙升，对于一些所谓“僵尸公司”的冲击最大，这类公司一般只能赚到刚刚够偿还债务的钱。从某些方面来看，大约五分之一的上市公司在利率较低时就已经符合这一定义。当债务成本飙升，将有更多公司沦为“僵尸公司”，而已经在列的公司则可能会破产。穆迪分析公司估计，全球垃圾债明年的违约率将几乎翻一番。根据巴克莱银行的分析，在价值6.7万亿美元的美国高评级企业债市场，有迹象表明，违约情况可能是过去50年中最严重的。杰富瑞首席金融经济学家Aneta Markowska表示，对于倾向于以浮动利率从银行借款的美国中小企业而言，最糟糕的时刻尚未到来。随着明年年初美联储加息达到峰值，他们很可能被迫裁员。她表示：我预计第一季度会出现更多裂缝，因为这些小企业开始感受到加息的痛苦。在过去数年的低利率环境中，私人信贷市场近年来进行了许多大型杠杆融资，但随着美联储持续加息，股债齐跌，高风险资产价格暴跌，曾经“生金蛋的鹅”成了烫手山芋。Markowska表示：债务在被承销时，没有人会想到，在这些交易的有生之年，联邦基金利率会接近5%。上周公布的11月份美联储FOMC会议纪要显示，一些政策制定者指出，非银行部门的“隐性杠杆”可能破坏大型全球市场的功能。投资者对亚洲的担忧更甚，美元走强使得以美元计价的债务更加昂贵。越南和印尼地产债价格大幅下跌；韩国10月乐高乐园违约事件引发信贷市场恐慌性抛售，同时也加剧了人们对房企违约的担忧。新兴市场站在破产边缘对于发达经济体而言，以本币发债的政府通常不会在利率上升时面临向家庭和企业那样的直接挑战，但这并不意味着他们是无懈可击的。拿英国来说，前首相特拉斯的大规模减税计划差点搞崩本国国债市场。目前，特拉斯已经下台，英国金融市场企稳，但由于英国央行的加息步伐短期内难以改变，新政府明年仍面临借贷成本翻倍的挑战。意大利公共债务问题是发达经济体中几乎是最令人头疼的。欧盟统计局此前公布的数据显示，到今年第一季度末，意大利政府债务占GDP比例为152.6%，仅次于希腊的189.3%。令据彭博经济估计，到2030年，光是政府需要支付的利息就将超过GDP的7%。美国在债务问题上也可能面临政治难题。面对“野蛮生长”的债务，拜登政府目前唯一的办法就是提高债务上限，而这需要共和党人的支持。有分析人士预测，若美国两党无法就提高债务上限达成妥协，明年第三季度美国或陷入债务违约危机。届时，美国国内银行利率飙升、股市暴跌、养老金账户大幅缩水，美国经济将遭到致命打击。相比之下，许多新兴市场已经在主权债务危机里挣扎多时了。斯里兰卡和赞比亚双双违约，埃及和巴基斯坦等国家也面临违约风险。IIF上周二公布的数据显示，三季度发展中经济体的债务与GDP之比上升到254%，与2021年第一季度创下的纪录高位相当。IMF数据也显示，超过60%的低收入国家处于债务困境，或者面临债务困境高风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962497013,"gmtCreate":1669820694133,"gmtModify":1676538250201,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962497013","repostId":"2287792664","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287792664","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669820474,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287792664?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Supply or demand? The Fed is trying to figure out what drives high inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287792664","media":"智通财经","summary":"旧金山联储的分析显示，目前通胀更多是由需求驱动的，但其他研究表明很难区分通胀的驱动因素。根据美联储经济学家建立的新衡量标准，商品和服务的强劲需求可能正开始超过疫情和俄乌冲突造成的供应限制，成为推动美国","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The San Francisco Fed's analysis shows that inflation is more demand-driven right now, but other research shows it's difficult to distinguish the drivers of inflation.</p><p>Strong demand for goods and services may be beginning to outweigh supply constraints caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, becoming an important factor driving U.S. prices, according to new measures established by Federal Reserve economists.</p><p>On the face of it, that means inflation is more likely to persist, even as the devastation caused by the pandemic and war fades out of view, strengthening the case for the Fed to tighten policy to combat inflation. But the new study also contains evidence pointing in the other direction, illustrating how difficult it is to disentangle the impact of supply and demand on prices.</p><p>\"This is an old economic problem\",<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Chief economist Mark Zandi said, \"In terms of current monetary policy, this is really important because if you feel that it is more supply-side driven than demand-side driven, you may be more supportive of the view that the Fed should proceed cautiously.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b83bc4b1578c580dcefe7f8653863ff\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To sort out the different drivers of inflation, economists at the Federal Reserve focused on the relationship between the prices of individual goods and services and the amount of those goods and services consumers buy. In the category where prices and volumes are rising at the same time, inflation is classified as primarily demand-driven. Where prices rise and quantities fall, inflation is called supply-driven.</p><p>Typically, demand-driven types are considered more durable than supply-driven types. But new research shows that this conclusion is actually not that clear-cut.</p><p><b>Sustained demand driven</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's upcoming core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) for October is expected to fall to 5%. It stood at 5.1% in September, a month in which demand-driven price pressures outpaced supply-driven annual numbers for the first time since inflation began in summer 2021, according to the San Francisco Fed's breakdown data using price and volume methods.</p><p>It is worth noting that there are still quite large-scale \"fuzzy\" categories of goods and services that fall neither fully into the supply bucket nor the demand bucket, which account for about one-fifth of the total. That means demand still accounts for less than half of headline core inflation.</p><p>Another problem is that demand-driven inflation does not necessarily require a tougher response from the central bank in the form of higher interest rates. It depends on whether these effects fade quickly, another factor economists at the Boston Federal Reserve Bank have been studying.</p><p>\"A sustained demand shock requires'going against the wind 'more than a short-lived demand shock,\" said Viacheslav Sheremirov, an economist at the Boston Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p>Once inflation in a certain class of goods or services is identified as demand-driven or supply-driven, Sheremirov's research attempts to further classify it as temporary or persistent. \"I actually found a significant ongoing demand component, which is not common compared to historical data. Typically, most of the demand comes from temporary sources\".</p><p><b>Impact of housing</b></p><p>Data from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank shows that housing plays an important role in driving demand, in part because it accounts for a huge portion of households' monthly budgets. But it's not easy to classify housing as a persistent source of demand-driven inflation, the Boston Fed's study found.</p><p>Instead, it sees other service categories, especially travel-related services, such as airfare and hotel accommodation, as the most persistent drivers of demand-driven inflation.</p><p>This is in line with a rush to spend savings built up during lockdown when the service sector reopened. Although by June 2022, when the Boston Fed's analysis stopped, the impact began to fade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca119353b9b8567426a980024dd0080\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zandi is doing a similar price and volume analysis, and its research shows that the impact of demand pressures peaked in the spring and summer of 2021, with the passage of the American Rescue Plan and the rollout of vaccines driving spending, and supply shocks pushing inflation to 40 years after the economy reopened. year highs.</p><p>With these supply-side pressures now also starting to subside, inflation may become more demand-driven again, but this will coincide with a lower headline inflation rate: forecasters expect inflation to fall below 3% by the end of next year.</p><p>Zandi said: \"If nothing changes, then in six or 12 months, inflation will be more on the demand side than the supply side. But by then, the inflation rate will be much lower and won't be a problem. It's a problem now, and what is a problem now is on the supply side.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Supply or demand? The Fed is trying to figure out what drives high inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSupply or demand? The Fed is trying to figure out what drives high inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The San Francisco Fed's analysis shows that inflation is more demand-driven right now, but other research shows it's difficult to distinguish the drivers of inflation.</p><p>Strong demand for goods and services may be beginning to outweigh supply constraints caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, becoming an important factor driving U.S. prices, according to new measures established by Federal Reserve economists.</p><p>On the face of it, that means inflation is more likely to persist, even as the devastation caused by the pandemic and war fades out of view, strengthening the case for the Fed to tighten policy to combat inflation. But the new study also contains evidence pointing in the other direction, illustrating how difficult it is to disentangle the impact of supply and demand on prices.</p><p>\"This is an old economic problem\",<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Chief economist Mark Zandi said, \"In terms of current monetary policy, this is really important because if you feel that it is more supply-side driven than demand-side driven, you may be more supportive of the view that the Fed should proceed cautiously.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b83bc4b1578c580dcefe7f8653863ff\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To sort out the different drivers of inflation, economists at the Federal Reserve focused on the relationship between the prices of individual goods and services and the amount of those goods and services consumers buy. In the category where prices and volumes are rising at the same time, inflation is classified as primarily demand-driven. Where prices rise and quantities fall, inflation is called supply-driven.</p><p>Typically, demand-driven types are considered more durable than supply-driven types. But new research shows that this conclusion is actually not that clear-cut.</p><p><b>Sustained demand driven</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's upcoming core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) for October is expected to fall to 5%. It stood at 5.1% in September, a month in which demand-driven price pressures outpaced supply-driven annual numbers for the first time since inflation began in summer 2021, according to the San Francisco Fed's breakdown data using price and volume methods.</p><p>It is worth noting that there are still quite large-scale \"fuzzy\" categories of goods and services that fall neither fully into the supply bucket nor the demand bucket, which account for about one-fifth of the total. That means demand still accounts for less than half of headline core inflation.</p><p>Another problem is that demand-driven inflation does not necessarily require a tougher response from the central bank in the form of higher interest rates. It depends on whether these effects fade quickly, another factor economists at the Boston Federal Reserve Bank have been studying.</p><p>\"A sustained demand shock requires'going against the wind 'more than a short-lived demand shock,\" said Viacheslav Sheremirov, an economist at the Boston Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p>Once inflation in a certain class of goods or services is identified as demand-driven or supply-driven, Sheremirov's research attempts to further classify it as temporary or persistent. \"I actually found a significant ongoing demand component, which is not common compared to historical data. Typically, most of the demand comes from temporary sources\".</p><p><b>Impact of housing</b></p><p>Data from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank shows that housing plays an important role in driving demand, in part because it accounts for a huge portion of households' monthly budgets. But it's not easy to classify housing as a persistent source of demand-driven inflation, the Boston Fed's study found.</p><p>Instead, it sees other service categories, especially travel-related services, such as airfare and hotel accommodation, as the most persistent drivers of demand-driven inflation.</p><p>This is in line with a rush to spend savings built up during lockdown when the service sector reopened. Although by June 2022, when the Boston Fed's analysis stopped, the impact began to fade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca119353b9b8567426a980024dd0080\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zandi is doing a similar price and volume analysis, and its research shows that the impact of demand pressures peaked in the spring and summer of 2021, with the passage of the American Rescue Plan and the rollout of vaccines driving spending, and supply shocks pushing inflation to 40 years after the economy reopened. year highs.</p><p>With these supply-side pressures now also starting to subside, inflation may become more demand-driven again, but this will coincide with a lower headline inflation rate: forecasters expect inflation to fall below 3% by the end of next year.</p><p>Zandi said: \"If nothing changes, then in six or 12 months, inflation will be more on the demand side than the supply side. But by then, the inflation rate will be much lower and won't be a problem. It's a problem now, and what is a problem now is on the supply side.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/840090.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/840090.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287792664","content_text":"旧金山联储的分析显示，目前通胀更多是由需求驱动的，但其他研究表明很难区分通胀的驱动因素。根据美联储经济学家建立的新衡量标准，商品和服务的强劲需求可能正开始超过疫情和俄乌冲突造成的供应限制，成为推动美国物价的重要因素。从表面上看，这意味着通胀更有可能持续下去，即使疫情和战争造成的破坏逐渐淡出人们的视野，这也增强了美联储收紧政策以应对通胀的理由。但新的研究也包含了指向另一个方向的证据，说明了理清供需对价格的影响有多么困难。“这是一个古老的经济问题”，穆迪首席经济学家Mark Zandi表示，“就当前的货币政策而言，这真的很重要，因为如果你觉得它更多是由供给侧驱动的，而不是由需求侧驱动的，你可能会更支持美联储应该谨慎行事的观点”。为了梳理出通胀的不同驱动因素，美联储的经济学家们把重点放在了个别商品和服务价格与消费者购买这些商品和服务数量之间的关系上。在价格和数量同时上升的类别中，通胀被归类为主要由需求驱动的。在价格上升而数量下降的情况下，通货膨胀被称为供给驱动。通常情况下，需求驱动型被认为比供应驱动型更持久。但新的研究表明，这个结论实际上并没有那么明确。持续性需求驱动美联储即将公布的10月核心PCE物价指数(不包括食品和能源类)预计将降至5%。根据旧金山联储使用价格和数量方法的细分数据，9月份这一数字为5.1%，自2021年夏季通胀开始以来，该月需求驱动的价格压力首次超过了供应驱动的年度数字。值得注意的是，仍有相当大规模的“模糊”商品和服务类别，它们既不能完全归入供应桶，也不能完全归入需求桶，这类商品和服务约占总量的五分之一。这意味着需求在整体核心通胀中所占的比重仍不到一半。另一个问题是，需求驱动型通胀并不一定需要央行以提高利率的形式做出更强硬的回应。这取决于这些影响是否会迅速消退，这是波士顿联邦储备银行的经济学家一直在研究的另一个因素。波士顿联邦储备银行经济学家Viacheslav Sheremirov表示：“与短暂的需求冲击相比，持续的需求冲击更需要‘逆风而行’。”一旦某一类商品或服务的通胀被确定为需求驱动型或供给驱动型，Sheremirov的研究试图进一步将其划分为暂时性或持续性。“我实际上发现了一个重要的持续需求成分，与历史数据相比，这并不常见。通常情况下，大部分需求都来自暂时性来源”。住房的影响旧金山联邦储备银行的数据显示，住房在需求驱动方面扮演了重要角色，部分原因是它在家庭每月预算中占据了巨大的比重。但波士顿联邦储备银行的研究发现，要把住房归类为需求驱动型通胀的持续来源并不容易。相反，它认为其他服务类别尤其是与旅游相关的服务，如机票和酒店住宿是需求驱动型通胀最持久的推动力。这与服务行业重新开放时，人们急于消费封锁期间积累的储蓄相一致。尽管到2022年6月，波士顿联邦储备银行的分析停止时，这种影响开始消退。Zandi也在做类似的价格和数量分析，其研究表明，需求压力的影响在2021年春夏达到顶峰，美国救援计划的通过和疫苗的推出推动了支出，经济重新开放之后，供应冲击推动通胀升至40年来的高点。随着这些供应方面的压力现在也开始消退，通胀可能再次变得更受需求驱动，但这将与一个更低的整体通胀率相吻合：预测者预计到明年年底，通胀率将降至3%以下。Zandi表示：“如果没有任何变化，那么6个月或12个月后，通胀将更多是需求面而非供给面。但到那时，通胀率会低得多，不会成为问题。现在这是一个问题，而现在成为一个问题的原因在于供应方面”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPY":1,"DOG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".DJI":1,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".IXIC":1,"UPRO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9928414849,"gmtCreate":1671360501182,"gmtModify":1676538526739,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928414849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982552450,"gmtCreate":1667218090170,"gmtModify":1676537879216,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982552450","repostId":"2279808891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915363395,"gmtCreate":1664960316517,"gmtModify":1676537536139,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915363395","repostId":"2273971138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273971138","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664952671,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273971138?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 14:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks are ushering in a strong start to the fourth quarter. Is it really going to turn from bear to bull?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273971138","media":"第一财经","summary":"投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？　　经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。　　统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？　　美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线，工厂订单月率继续回落。","content":"<p><div>Can investors' expectations of an inflection point in Fed policy become a reality? After a difficult third quarter, U.S. stocks rebounded strongly in October. The Dow rose nearly 1,600 points in two trading days, and the S&P 500 rose nearly 6%. The \"bad news\" of poor economic data began to be regarded as \"good news\" of a possible shift in Fed policy, and market risk appetite quickly picked up. Statistics show that the fourth quarter is often the starting point for the end of the bear market in the US stock market. Will history repeat itself again this time? Markets are betting that the Federal Reserve will \"let go.\" The US ISM manufacturing index fell to a 28-month low of 50.9 in September, closing further in on the boom-bust line...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks are ushering in a strong start to the fourth quarter. Is it really going to turn from bear to bull?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks are ushering in a strong start to the fourth quarter. Is it really going to turn from bear to bull?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-05 14:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Can investors' expectations of an inflection point in Fed policy become a reality? After a difficult third quarter, U.S. stocks rebounded strongly in October. The Dow rose nearly 1,600 points in two trading days, and the S&P 500 rose nearly 6%. The \"bad news\" of poor economic data began to be regarded as \"good news\" of a possible shift in Fed policy, and market risk appetite quickly picked up. Statistics show that the fourth quarter is often the starting point for the end of the bear market in the US stock market. Will history repeat itself again this time? Markets are betting that the Federal Reserve will \"let go.\" The US ISM manufacturing index fell to a 28-month low of 50.9 in September, closing further in on the boom-bust line...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 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Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273971138","content_text":"投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？市场押注美联储将“松口”美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线，工厂订单月率继续回落。与此同时，美国上月的职位空缺从之前的1120万降至1010万，这被认为随着经济放缓工作机会正在变少，炙手可热的劳动力市场可能面临降温。疲软的经济前景令外界开始削减美联储大幅加息的押注，受此影响，各期限美债收益率全线回落，基准10年期国债收益率降至3.583%，上周该项收益率一度突破4%，美元指数一度逼近110关口，较上周创下的20年高位回落下跌超3.5%。与此同时，周二澳大利亚联储意外仅加息25基点，以及上周英国央行入市干预，令政策放松预期持续发酵。德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）表示，虽然股市肯定已达到超卖状态，但“对央行可能很快转向更温和立场的猜测越来越多”也有助于提振市场情绪。根据芝商所CME利率观察工具FedWatch，预计年内剩余两次会议加息125基点的概率为60%，高于上周的47%，同时本轮加息周期终点有望在明年3月出现，利率终值预期回落至4.43%。RBC Capital Markets首席美国经济学家波切利（Tom Porcelli）表示：“投资者关注的是，在市场面临诸多压力的情况下，美联储是否会坚持所有这些关于掩盖通胀的言论。毫无疑问，美联储希望控制通胀。”他分析道：“更大的问题是，在通货膨胀恢复到他们满意的水平之前，其他因素是否会影响他们的计划？”历史数据也显示，10月开始的四季度往往是美股“转折点”。Stock Trader’s Almanac 的数据显示，二战后美股熊市中有超过70%在10月结束。此外，2022年也是美国中期选举年，今年选举将于11月8日举行。统计发现，中期选举年的10月表现尤为出色。同时，中期选举年的第四季度与大选年前第一和第二季度，是市场连续三个季度表现最好的季度。这期间，道琼斯工业指数平均涨幅为19.3%，标准普尔500指数涨幅为20.0%（自1949年以来），纳斯达克指数为29.3%（自1971年以来）。财富管理公司Stifel首席股票策略师班尼斯特（Barry Bannister）预计，标准普尔500指数正在触底，市场在今年第四季度至2023年初之间将出现积极的催化剂。反弹持续性有待观察虽然股指上涨带来了乐观情绪，但也有不少机构认为，消极的经济基本面可能压倒季节性趋势。Ameriprise Financial首席市场策略师萨林迪恩（Anthony Saglindene）表示，在历史上的某些时期，10月份可能会引发华尔街的恐慌，包括1987年和1929年的两场动荡。 “我认为，如果股市经历了非常困难的一年，季节性因素都应该予以折中，因为还有其他一些宏观因素在影响市场，你需要更清楚地了解那些推低股市的宏观因素。”他说。富国银行也发出警告称，随着对美国潜在衰退的警告不断增加，有关美联储转向可能性的传言再次出现，这表明投资者有可能“再次低估美联储在寻求解决通胀问题时的决心”。摩根士丹利首席股票策略师威尔逊（Mike Wilson）本周继续预警美股跌势将持续到年底，部分原因是全球主要经济体的美元供应减少，即使短期出现反弹，接下来股票、债券、大宗商品和货币的波动性可能会继续上升。威尔逊表示，问题在于，随着利率持续上升，美联储不断缩减其资产负债表，它可能会在世界某些地方，甚至在美国引发危机。这是因为更高的利率使公司和家庭借贷成本更高，从而拖累美国经济，而美元走强则使新兴经济体更难偿还以美元计价的债务。威尔逊认为，流动性问题已经开始浮出水面。“美元对风险市场的走向非常重要，这就是为什么我们如此密切地跟踪M2的增长， 美国、欧元区和日本等主要经济体的M2在2021达到峰值，此后下降了4万亿美元。跟踪这些经济体的货币供应变化率很重要，因为这往往与股市走势密切相关。截至目前，美联储并未释放有关货币政策力度调整的信号，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席布雷纳德在内的多位官员均在近期讲话中表示，不会冒险提前降息，因为担心通胀可能变得更加根深蒂固。威尔逊表示，无论如何，在美联储最终转向之前，股市可能会走低，不过对这一政策变化的预期可能足以引发股市大幅但短暂的反弹。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"TQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835620707,"gmtCreate":1629713196509,"gmtModify":1676530108049,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835620707","repostId":"1197421899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197421899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629700881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197421899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197421899","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积","content":"<p><i>Rickards, author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it is. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a new front of a currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers have not noticed it is simply because the situation has not yet evolved to the point where all parties involved have openly manipulated monetary policy without scruple, and that day is not far away, maybe early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, originally a lawyer, happened to be the legal adviser of a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial turmoil, and participated in promoting the rescue operation led by the Federal Reserve, which saved the American financial system from major damage. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare consultant of the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to investors as the author of best-selling financial books, especially Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally makes people dare not take it lightly. In the latest article, Rickards expounded his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the US dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar will also have a serious impact on U.S. exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, The U.S. Treasury Department will most likely weaken the U.S. dollar, and the curtain of the currency war will begin.</p><p>Let's carefully analyze the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The fact is that since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then US President Barack Obama began to weaken the US dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that the weakening of the US dollar will inevitably damage the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they obviously don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its own reasons objectively. After all, the United States is the largest economy in the world. If the American economy falls into recession, none of the other major economies in the world can survive alone.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, to ensure the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new round of recession, weakening the U.S. dollar has become the top priority. The unlucky one this time is Europe, the US and the rest of the world's economies haven't suffered much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy really worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the exchange rate of the US dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that at about the same time, the price of gold hit an all-time high, and the exchange rate of the euro also soared. Needless to say, as for the American economy, it has received much-needed support.</p><p>After that, the United States began to release goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar had dropped to 1.05 US dollars per euro. Americans' judgment at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the falling euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and promote the economic rebound of the euro zone.</p><p>Since then, the cross exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has basically oscillated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1 euro to 1.18 US dollars, which is almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war does not necessarily mean that only the two parties involved or all parties go into battle shirtless, causing the cross-exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation is extreme. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason for the outbreak of currency war is that the debt is too high and the economic growth is insufficient. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or that economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners-in other words, the war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although it is likely that the United States will rapidly weaken the US dollar in the near future as part of its own economic rescue plan, in the short term, the US dollar will have a strong market first. Why is this?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>First of all, the crux of the problem is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, the growth rate of 6.5% GDP in the second quarter of the United States is lower than the widely expected outside world, but the real economic situation is even worse than the figures show.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker read 13% in April and dropped to 7.5% in June. As we all know, the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that in just three months in the second quarter, the growth prospects have been greatly weakened. At the same time, it also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, then the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also worrying. For example, as Americans are letting go of stimulus checks sent by the government, imports are booming.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which shows that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far inferior to that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply don't have the appetite to eat many American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months from October 2020, private sector revenue grew virtually zero. It's terrible to see this alone, but to think again that the government subsidies that support the personal income situation are expiring one after another, people can't help but become more pessimistic about the prospects.</p><p>The extra subsidy of unemployment benefits has entered the countdown to its disappearance. The order prohibiting homeowners from evicting tenants is less than a few dozen days left, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan has expired. All in all, in the short term, there is no possibility of a new plan for large-scale check distribution.</p><p>Now that the wave of government cash distribution has reached its final stage, while personal income has stagnated and exports have declined, so what else can the U.S. GDP continue to grow in the second half of 2021? Hope?</p><p>By November this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know how bad the economy is doing. In addition, by then, they will most likely have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several consecutive months.</p><p>The trouble is that it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn by then. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left before the 2022 mid-term elections. The Democratic Party and the White House will be completely panicked, and by then, the only thing they can do is ask the Treasury Department to do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is exactly the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, why did the dollar show strength before that?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. Of course, a crisis like this can't happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two behind the scenes to make the market and the public fully aware of how severe the status quo has become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>--Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar has been rejected by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation just shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>--Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and large financial institutions predict that the trend of interest rates in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that in the long term, the economy will have a high probability of recession.</p><p>--Since March, the yield level of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investment targets because of fear, and everyone expects that economic growth will slow down in the future, easing inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when and how serious the global liquidity crisis will always break out. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors will desperately pursue security, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Rickards, author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it is. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a new front of a currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers have not noticed it is simply because the situation has not yet evolved to the point where all parties involved have openly manipulated monetary policy without scruple, and that day is not far away, maybe early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, originally a lawyer, happened to be the legal adviser of a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial turmoil, and participated in promoting the rescue operation led by the Federal Reserve, which saved the American financial system from major damage. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare consultant of the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to investors as the author of best-selling financial books, especially Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally makes people dare not take it lightly. In the latest article, Rickards expounded his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the US dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar will also have a serious impact on U.S. exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, The U.S. Treasury Department will most likely weaken the U.S. dollar, and the curtain of the currency war will begin.</p><p>Let's carefully analyze the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The fact is that since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then US President Barack Obama began to weaken the US dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that the weakening of the US dollar will inevitably damage the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they obviously don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its own reasons objectively. After all, the United States is the largest economy in the world. If the American economy falls into recession, none of the other major economies in the world can survive alone.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, to ensure the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new round of recession, weakening the U.S. dollar has become the top priority. The unlucky one this time is Europe, the US and the rest of the world's economies haven't suffered much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy really worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the exchange rate of the US dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that at about the same time, the price of gold hit an all-time high, and the exchange rate of the euro also soared. Needless to say, as for the American economy, it has received much-needed support.</p><p>After that, the United States began to release goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar had dropped to 1.05 US dollars per euro. Americans' judgment at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the falling euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and promote the economic rebound of the euro zone.</p><p>Since then, the cross exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has basically oscillated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1 euro to 1.18 US dollars, which is almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war does not necessarily mean that only the two parties involved or all parties go into battle shirtless, causing the cross-exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation is extreme. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason for the outbreak of currency war is that the debt is too high and the economic growth is insufficient. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or that economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners-in other words, the war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although it is likely that the United States will rapidly weaken the US dollar in the near future as part of its own economic rescue plan, in the short term, the US dollar will have a strong market first. Why is this?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>First of all, the crux of the problem is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, the growth rate of 6.5% GDP in the second quarter of the United States is lower than the widely expected outside world, but the real economic situation is even worse than the figures show.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker read 13% in April and dropped to 7.5% in June. As we all know, the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that in just three months in the second quarter, the growth prospects have been greatly weakened. At the same time, it also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, then the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also worrying. For example, as Americans are letting go of stimulus checks sent by the government, imports are booming.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which shows that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far inferior to that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply don't have the appetite to eat many American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months from October 2020, private sector revenue grew virtually zero. It's terrible to see this alone, but to think again that the government subsidies that support the personal income situation are expiring one after another, people can't help but become more pessimistic about the prospects.</p><p>The extra subsidy of unemployment benefits has entered the countdown to its disappearance. The order prohibiting homeowners from evicting tenants is less than a few dozen days left, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan has expired. All in all, in the short term, there is no possibility of a new plan for large-scale check distribution.</p><p>Now that the wave of government cash distribution has reached its final stage, while personal income has stagnated and exports have declined, so what else can the U.S. GDP continue to grow in the second half of 2021? Hope?</p><p>By November this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know how bad the economy is doing. In addition, by then, they will most likely have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several consecutive months.</p><p>The trouble is that it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn by then. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left before the 2022 mid-term elections. The Democratic Party and the White House will be completely panicked, and by then, the only thing they can do is ask the Treasury Department to do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is exactly the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, why did the dollar show strength before that?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. Of course, a crisis like this can't happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two behind the scenes to make the market and the public fully aware of how severe the status quo has become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>--Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar has been rejected by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation just shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>--Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and large financial institutions predict that the trend of interest rates in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that in the long term, the economy will have a high probability of recession.</p><p>--Since March, the yield level of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investment targets because of fear, and everyone expects that economic growth will slow down in the future, easing inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when and how serious the global liquidity crisis will always break out. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors will desperately pursue security, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf6fcde93937ee1cea8212ac47e8628","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197421899","content_text":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n\n\n不知不觉间，一条货币战争的全新战线已经隐隐出现在地平线上，多数观察家之所以尚未注意到，只不过因为局面还没有演变到参与各方已经毫无忌惮地公然操控货币政策的那个地步，而那一天却也为时不远了，也许2022年年初就会来到。\n这个结论来自著名投资人、经济学家里卡兹（Jim Rickards）。里卡兹是一位拥有万花筒般经历的人物——他在华尔街打拼数十年，最初是律师出身，在亚洲金融风暴期间恰好担任对冲基金长期资产管理公司的法律顾问，参与了推动联储主导的救援行动，使美国金融系统避免了重大损害，入行后，他又自学经济学，成为金融风险研究专家，并担任五角大楼金融战顾问。\n不过，里卡兹最为广大投资者所熟知的身份，还是财经畅销书籍作者，2012年出版的《货币战争》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）尤其享有广泛影响。这样一位货币战争专家发出了前述的预警，自然让人不敢等闲视之。在最新发布的文章当中，里卡兹阐述了自己在这个问题上的看法，以下即他的文章全文。\n不久之后，这个世界大概率会经历一轮重大的市场破坏，其结果就是，美元相对于其他主要货币的汇率大幅度走高。在这种情况下，美国就将遭受双重痛苦的打击，即市场破坏带来的痛苦之外，美元急剧走强还会对美国出口，以及出口相关的就业机会构成严重冲击，在这种情况下，美国财政部就大概率会出手削弱美元了，而货币战争的大幕也将就此拉开。\n下面就来仔细分析一下这番论说所依据的宏观经济图景。\n事实就是，从2010年开始，这个世界就进入了一场隐形的低烈度货币战争当中——在2007年至2008年的全球金融危机之后，为了刺激经济，时任美国总统奥巴马开始了削弱美元的操作。\n白宫和财政部都清楚地知道，美元趋向疲软，必然会损害到欧洲和日本的经济增长前景，但是他们对此显然根本就不在乎。当然，这种想法客观上也自有其道理，毕竟美国是全球最大的经济体，如果美国经济陷入衰退，世界其他主要经济体也没有一家可以独善其身。\n在2007年至2009年罕见的大衰退之后，要确保美国经济持续复苏，避开新一轮的衰退，削弱美元就变成了重中之重的关键任务。这一次倒霉的是欧洲，美国和世界其他经济体并没有遭受太大的苦难。\n货币战争暂时休战\n美国人的政策果然奏效了。到了2011年8月，联储的贸易加权指数显示，美元汇率跌到了历史最低点。完全可以理解的是，大致就在同时，黄金价格冲上了历史最高点，欧元汇率也猛涨。至于美国经济则不必说，由此得到了急需的支撑。\n在那之后，美国才开始对欧洲释放出善意，允许美元适度走强。到了2016年10月，欧元对美元汇率降低到了1欧元兑换1.05美元。美国人当时的判断是，自己的经济已经达成了足够的强势，已经完全经得起欧元走低的冲击，有足够的空间让欧洲人去操作，推动欧元区经济反弹。\n从那之后，欧元对美元的交叉汇率基本上都是在窄幅振荡。比如，2017年7月1日，欧元对美元汇率为1欧元兑换1.18美元，几乎和四年后的今天几乎是完全一致。\n在这里，大家首先必须明白的是，所谓货币战争，不见得就只有参与双方或者各方赤膊上阵，使得交叉汇率剧烈波动，估值极端的这一种面目。货币战争也有相对风平浪静的周期，而且这样的周期还能够持续很长的时间。\n还有一点，货币战争之所以会爆发，最根本的原因不外乎债务过高，而经济增长不足，只要这种根本原因一直存在下去，总归会有这个或者那个经济体试图通过让自己的货币相对于主要贸易伙伴贬值来刺激经济增长——换言之，战争依然随时都有爆发的可能性。\n有趣的是，虽然说起来，美国很可能会在不久后着手迅速削弱美元，来作为自己的经济援救计划的一部分，但是在短期内，美元首先还会有一波坚挺的行情。这是为什么呢？\n摇摇欲坠的复苏\n问题的关键首先就在于，目前白宫和美国财政部其实并不真正了解美国经济，或者更加明确地说，他们并不知道美国经济当下疲软到了怎样的地步。众所周知，美国第二季度国内生产总值6.5%的增长速度是低于外界的广泛预期的，但是真实经济的情况，甚至要比数字所显示的更加糟糕。\n亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器，其读数4月间还是13%，到了6月就降至7.5%，而众所周知，第二季度的真实经济增速是6.5%。这也就意味着，在第二季度这短短的三个月时间当中，增长前景就遭到了大幅度的削弱。这同时还说明，如果4月和5月的经济增长相对较为强势的话，那么最后一个月份6月的实际表现其实还不及季度平均的6.5%。\n这显然让人不能不对接下来的第三季度越发忧心忡忡。\n与此同时，除了万众瞩目的国内生产总值数字之外，其他同时发布的经济数据也颇多让人担心的地方。比如，由于美国人都在放手使用政府派出的刺激支票，进口一片旺盛景象。\n可是在出口一侧，故事便完全不同了，这也正说明了世界其他许多经济体的表现，其实远不及美国。用最简单直白的话来说，这些其他经济体，许多处境都非常糟糕，因此他们根本没有胃口吃下多少美国进口商品。\n局面还在继续恶化\n更加具有戏剧性的是，美国人的个人收入年化下滑速度达到了30%。从2020年10月算起，长达八个月的时间之内，私营部门收入实质上是零增长。单单看到这些已经很可怕了，而要再想到，支撑着个人收入局面的政府补贴正在一项又一项地次第到期，就让人不能不对前景越发悲观。\n失业救济的额外补贴，其消失已经进入了倒计时。禁止房主驱逐租客的命令也剩不了几十天了，而且还被贴上了违宪的标签。与此同时，薪资保障计划（PPP）的贷款已经到期了。总而言之，短期之内，也看不到大规模派发支票的新计划出炉的可能性。\n现在，政府派发现金的大潮已经到了最后阶段，而与此同时，个人收入停滞不前，出口遭遇下滑，那么，在2021年下半年，美国国内生产总值想要继续增长，还有什么可以指望？\n到了今年11月，第三季度国内生产总值报告出炉时，拜登总统和耶伦财长就会知道经济表现到底有多糟糕了。此外，到那时，他们大概率还已经领教了连续几个月通货膨胀面和就业数据面的坏消息。\n麻烦在于，到那时候再想办法去阻止经济猛烈下滑的势头，也注定将是为时已晚。还有，从政治视角看，那时距离2022年中期选举，也只剩下了不到一年。民主党方面和白宫将彻底陷入恐慌，而到那时，他们唯一能做的就是要求财政部采取一切必要手段削弱美元。\n这正是美元将在2022年变得疲软的根本逻辑。那么，在此之前，美元为何会呈现出强势呢？\n全球流动性危机\n答案是，一场全球流动性危机其实已经在进行之中了。类似这样的危机当然不可能是一夜之间发生的，而通常至少要在幕后酝酿一两年的时间，才会让市场和大众充分意识到现状到底已经变得有多严峻。\n下面就是一些值得注意的全球金融压力预警信号：\n——许多国家的政府都在减持美国国债。这当然并不是意味着美元遭到了这些国家的嫌弃，而是意味着，这些国家的银行系统急需获得美元，他们为了换取美元，已经不惜忍痛卖出美债了，而这种不得已的操作正说明他们的问题已经严重到了怎样的地步。\n——一些特定的欧元期货曲线已经略微反转，形成了所谓现货溢价。这就说明，银行和大金融机构预计，欧元区的利率走势是，短期内利率走高，而长期内利率走低，前者说明短期内金融压力将增大，后者说明长期来看，经济大概率将出现衰退。\n——自从3月以来，十年期美国国债收益率水平持续下滑，已经下跌了不少。这就说明几乎全体交易者都在因为恐惧情绪而追逐品质更高的投资对象，而且大家预计，未来经济增长将会减速，让通货膨胀压力减轻，甚至可能发生衰退。\n当然，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n不必说，当这场危机真正到来时，全球投资者必然会拼命追求安全，而美元和黄金届时就将大幅度走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925207370,"gmtCreate":1672024526390,"gmtModify":1676538623600,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925207370","repostId":"1190601149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969768840,"gmtCreate":1668525036981,"gmtModify":1676538070893,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969768840","repostId":"1132358384","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917982868,"gmtCreate":1665412098054,"gmtModify":1676537601914,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images"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10:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The most important data before the Federal Reserve's December rate hike is approaching, and the US November CPI will be announced next week. What does Wall Street think?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290473739","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞银认为，11月总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，不会出现今年3月和7月那样的次月反弹。巴克莱认为，能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>UBS believes that both overall and core CPI will confirm a slowdown in growth in November, and there will be no rebound in the following month like in March and July this year. Barclays believes that energy prices have driven the overall CPI to slow down, core service inflation has slowed down, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate.</b>The US CPI for November is scheduled to be released next Tuesday, December 13. The day after its release, the Federal Reserve will announce the resolution of its December monetary policy meeting.</p><p>The November CPI thus became the last heavy inflation data released before the Federal Reserve made its decision. It is undoubtedly the most important U.S. economic data to be released next week, and it is the heavy data that may influence the Fed's recent decision-making.</p><p>After U.S. CPI growth slowed more than expected in October, will this momentum continue in November? Two Wall Street institutions released detailed outlooks on CPI.</p><p><b>UBS: Both overall and core CPI will confirm slowdown in growth, and the month-on-month growth rate of core inflation will gradually decline in the future</b></p><p>UBS expects CPI to confirm slowing growth in November. Due to softer gasoline prices, the overall CPI price growth in November will be slower than in the previous two months. After seasonally adjustment, the overall CPI in November will increase by 0.26% month-on-month, the third lowest month-on-month growth rate since inflation began to rise early last year, lower than the growth rate of 0.39% in September and 0.44% in October.</p><p>UBS predicts that CPI will increase by 7.3% year-on-year in November, 0.5 percentage points slower than the growth rate in October, and a decrease of 1 percentage point in three months, far from the peak level of 9.1% in June.</p><p>For the core CPI after excluding volatile food and energy prices, UBS predicts that it will increase by 0.31% month-on-month in November, roughly in line with the 0.27% growth rate in October. Food prices are expected to grow at 0.88% in November, slightly faster than 0.6% in October.</p><p>UBS predicts that the core CPI will increase by 6.1% year-on-year in November, 0.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate in October, and 0.5 percentage points lower than the peak level of 6.6% in September.</p><p>UBS believes that the core CPI in November will confirm the slowdown in growth reflected in the October data. Unlike the situation in March and July this year, when inflation slowed down and then rebounded the following month, UBS did not find high-frequency and leading indicators suggesting that November would rebound from October. In other words, only a small part of the component prices of core CPI inflation grew stronger in November than in October, such as air tickets, clothing, and household goods. Used car prices are expected to decline steadily again, and rent increases will be strong, but still far below the peak growth rate in September.</p><p>Looking ahead to the December U.S. CPI to be released in January next year, UBS expects the growth rate of the overall CPI to slow down slightly, as gasoline prices will continue to fall steadily. The picture for core CPI is complicated, as last Friday's non-farm payrolls report showed that strong wage growth could support any upward inflation for core services other than rents, while indicators of rents and core commodities still show a downward trend, such as global freight costs Continue to decline, supplier delivery times decrease, and fall into deceleration range.</p><p><b>Barclays: Energy prices drive headline CPI slowdown, core services inflation slows, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate</b></p><p>Barclays predicts that the overall CPI in November will increase by 0.2% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year; The month-on-month growth rate of food inflation will slow slightly to 0.6% in November, and energy prices will fall by 1.7% month-on-month in November, the third month of decline in the last four months, which is the driving force behind the overall CPI slowdown.</p><p>Barclays also predicts that core CPI in November will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year, of which core service inflation will increase by 0.42% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year; Core commodities will remain moderately deflationary, which is expected to fall by 0.16% month-on-month, moderating from the 0.38% month-on-month decline in October, which hit the third largest deflation in the past two decades.</p><p>Barclays believes that core services inflation is still strong, but growth is slowing, not slow growth, and it is once again supported by strong housing inflation. Excluding the early COVID-19 pandemic, 0.42% will be the highest month-on-month growth rate of core services inflation since the beginning of 2005.</p><p>Barclays also believes that it is necessary to pay attention to excluding core services inflation for housing in future CPI data, because Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell specifically mentioned in his speech last week that excluding core services for housing, saying that it \"may be the most important thing to understand the future evolution of core inflation. important category\". It also mentioned services other than housing, which are closely related to the labor market, saying that \"because wages constitute the largest cost of providing these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category\".</p><p>In terms of core commodities, Barclays believes that the trend of continued deflation in November comes from a major driving force, that is, the pressure on the global supply chain has generally and rapidly eased, and the current supply chain pressure is only slightly higher than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level. And, retailers' inventories are now mostly rebuilt at levels close to pre-pandemic trends, which should continue to help balance supply and demand for goods beyond energy and food. Barclays also found that multiple sub-categories will drive down core commodities, such as used cars whose prices have fallen for four consecutive months.</p><p>In terms of medium-term forecasts, Barclays' CPI expectations have changed little compared to before, but they will continue to reflect the high uncertainty of the domestic inflation path in the United States. It predicts that the overall CPI in December this year will increase by 6.5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate in 2023, that is, December next year, will slow down to 2.7%, and further drop to 2.3% by December 2024. The overall CPI will increase by 8.0% year-on-year this year, 4.3% next year, and 2.4% in 2024. Part of the weakness in headline inflation next year stems from lower energy prices then.</p><p>Barclays predicts that the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI will slow down to 5.8% in December this year from the peak of 6.7% in September, to 2.9% by December next year, and to 2.4% by December 2024.%.</p><p>Barclays predicts that core service inflation will increase by 6.9%, 4.2% and 3.2% year-on-year this year, next year and 2024 respectively. At the end of 2024, it will fall back to nearly 3%.</p><p>For core commodities, Barclays expects to be in a stage of moderate deflation in the first half of next year. The year-on-year growth rates of core commodities this year, next year and 2024 will be 2.8%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. This forecast is based on the assumption that the global supply chain slowdown will continue and eventually return to near-historical normal levels by the end of next year, and a mild recession will begin in the second quarter of next year, affecting demand for commodities.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The most important data before the Federal Reserve's December rate hike is approaching, and the US November CPI will be announced next week. What does Wall Street think?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe most important data before the Federal Reserve's December rate hike is approaching, and the US November CPI will be announced next week. What does Wall Street think?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-09 10:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>UBS believes that both overall and core CPI will confirm a slowdown in growth in November, and there will be no rebound in the following month like in March and July this year. Barclays believes that energy prices have driven the overall CPI to slow down, core service inflation has slowed down, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate.</b>The US CPI for November is scheduled to be released next Tuesday, December 13. The day after its release, the Federal Reserve will announce the resolution of its December monetary policy meeting.</p><p>The November CPI thus became the last heavy inflation data released before the Federal Reserve made its decision. It is undoubtedly the most important U.S. economic data to be released next week, and it is the heavy data that may influence the Fed's recent decision-making.</p><p>After U.S. CPI growth slowed more than expected in October, will this momentum continue in November? Two Wall Street institutions released detailed outlooks on CPI.</p><p><b>UBS: Both overall and core CPI will confirm slowdown in growth, and the month-on-month growth rate of core inflation will gradually decline in the future</b></p><p>UBS expects CPI to confirm slowing growth in November. Due to softer gasoline prices, the overall CPI price growth in November will be slower than in the previous two months. After seasonally adjustment, the overall CPI in November will increase by 0.26% month-on-month, the third lowest month-on-month growth rate since inflation began to rise early last year, lower than the growth rate of 0.39% in September and 0.44% in October.</p><p>UBS predicts that CPI will increase by 7.3% year-on-year in November, 0.5 percentage points slower than the growth rate in October, and a decrease of 1 percentage point in three months, far from the peak level of 9.1% in June.</p><p>For the core CPI after excluding volatile food and energy prices, UBS predicts that it will increase by 0.31% month-on-month in November, roughly in line with the 0.27% growth rate in October. Food prices are expected to grow at 0.88% in November, slightly faster than 0.6% in October.</p><p>UBS predicts that the core CPI will increase by 6.1% year-on-year in November, 0.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate in October, and 0.5 percentage points lower than the peak level of 6.6% in September.</p><p>UBS believes that the core CPI in November will confirm the slowdown in growth reflected in the October data. Unlike the situation in March and July this year, when inflation slowed down and then rebounded the following month, UBS did not find high-frequency and leading indicators suggesting that November would rebound from October. In other words, only a small part of the component prices of core CPI inflation grew stronger in November than in October, such as air tickets, clothing, and household goods. Used car prices are expected to decline steadily again, and rent increases will be strong, but still far below the peak growth rate in September.</p><p>Looking ahead to the December U.S. CPI to be released in January next year, UBS expects the growth rate of the overall CPI to slow down slightly, as gasoline prices will continue to fall steadily. The picture for core CPI is complicated, as last Friday's non-farm payrolls report showed that strong wage growth could support any upward inflation for core services other than rents, while indicators of rents and core commodities still show a downward trend, such as global freight costs Continue to decline, supplier delivery times decrease, and fall into deceleration range.</p><p><b>Barclays: Energy prices drive headline CPI slowdown, core services inflation slows, but not slowly, and core commodities will continue to deflate</b></p><p>Barclays predicts that the overall CPI in November will increase by 0.2% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year; The month-on-month growth rate of food inflation will slow slightly to 0.6% in November, and energy prices will fall by 1.7% month-on-month in November, the third month of decline in the last four months, which is the driving force behind the overall CPI slowdown.</p><p>Barclays also predicts that core CPI in November will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year, of which core service inflation will increase by 0.42% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year; Core commodities will remain moderately deflationary, which is expected to fall by 0.16% month-on-month, moderating from the 0.38% month-on-month decline in October, which hit the third largest deflation in the past two decades.</p><p>Barclays believes that core services inflation is still strong, but growth is slowing, not slow growth, and it is once again supported by strong housing inflation. Excluding the early COVID-19 pandemic, 0.42% will be the highest month-on-month growth rate of core services inflation since the beginning of 2005.</p><p>Barclays also believes that it is necessary to pay attention to excluding core services inflation for housing in future CPI data, because Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell specifically mentioned in his speech last week that excluding core services for housing, saying that it \"may be the most important thing to understand the future evolution of core inflation. important category\". It also mentioned services other than housing, which are closely related to the labor market, saying that \"because wages constitute the largest cost of providing these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category\".</p><p>In terms of core commodities, Barclays believes that the trend of continued deflation in November comes from a major driving force, that is, the pressure on the global supply chain has generally and rapidly eased, and the current supply chain pressure is only slightly higher than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level. And, retailers' inventories are now mostly rebuilt at levels close to pre-pandemic trends, which should continue to help balance supply and demand for goods beyond energy and food. Barclays also found that multiple sub-categories will drive down core commodities, such as used cars whose prices have fallen for four consecutive months.</p><p>In terms of medium-term forecasts, Barclays' CPI expectations have changed little compared to before, but they will continue to reflect the high uncertainty of the domestic inflation path in the United States. It predicts that the overall CPI in December this year will increase by 6.5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate in 2023, that is, December next year, will slow down to 2.7%, and further drop to 2.3% by December 2024. The overall CPI will increase by 8.0% year-on-year this year, 4.3% next year, and 2.4% in 2024. Part of the weakness in headline inflation next year stems from lower energy prices then.</p><p>Barclays predicts that the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI will slow down to 5.8% in December this year from the peak of 6.7% in September, to 2.9% by December next year, and to 2.4% by December 2024.%.</p><p>Barclays predicts that core service inflation will increase by 6.9%, 4.2% and 3.2% year-on-year this year, next year and 2024 respectively. At the end of 2024, it will fall back to nearly 3%.</p><p>For core commodities, Barclays expects to be in a stage of moderate deflation in the first half of next year. The year-on-year growth rates of core commodities this year, next year and 2024 will be 2.8%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. This forecast is based on the assumption that the global supply chain slowdown will continue and eventually return to near-historical normal levels by the end of next year, and a mild recession will begin in the second quarter of next year, affecting demand for commodities.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677048\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e840b1c7925bc414d98748d69475fa0","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677048","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290473739","content_text":"瑞银认为，11月总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，不会出现今年3月和7月那样的次月反弹。巴克莱认为，能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩。美国11月CPI 定于12月13日下周二公布。它公布的次日，美联储就将宣布12月货币政策会议的决议。11月CPI由此成为美联储制定决策前最后发布的重磅通胀数据，也无疑是下周将公布的最重要美国经济数据，是可能左右联储近期决策的重磅数据。在10月美国CPI增长超预期放缓后，11月还会延续这样的势头吗？两家华尔街机构公布了有关CPI的详细前瞻。瑞银：总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，未来核心通胀月环比增速将逐步下降瑞银预计，11月CPI将确认增长放缓。由于汽油价格更为疲软，11月总体CPI价格的增长将比前两个月更慢，季节性调整后，11月总体CPI将环比增长0.26%，为去年初通胀开始高涨以来第三低的月环比增速，低于9月的增速0.39%和10月的0.44%。瑞银预计，11月CPI同比增长7.3%，较10月的增速放缓0.5个百分点，三个月内下降1个百分点，远离6月的巅峰水平9.1%。对于剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI，瑞银预计，11月将环比增长0.31%，大致和10月增速0.27%一致。11月食品的价格增速料将为0.88%，略快于10月的0.6%。瑞银预计，11月核心CPI将同比增长6.1%，较10月增速回落0.2个百分点，较9月的巅峰水平6.6%回落0.5个百分点。瑞银认为，11月核心CPI将确认10月数据体现的增长放缓。不同于今年3月和7月通胀放缓后次月就反弹的情况，瑞银并未发现高频和先行的指标暗示11月会较10月有所回升。也就是说，核心CPI通胀的组成价格之中，只有很少一部分11月的增长比10月强劲，比如机票、服装、家用物品。二手车价格料将再次稳步下滑，房租上涨将很强劲，但仍远低于9月的巅峰增速。展望明年1月公布的12月美国CPI，瑞银预计总体CPI的增速将小幅放缓，因为汽油价格将继续稳步下跌。核心CPI的情况复杂，因为上周五的非农就业报告显示，薪资的强劲增长可能支持任何房租以外的核心服务类通胀上行，而房租与核心商品的指标仍体现下行趋势，比如全球货运成本继续下降、供应商配送时间减少、跌入减速区间。巴克莱：能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩巴克莱预计，11月总体CPI将环比增长0.2%，同比增长7.2%；11月食品通胀的环比增速将略微放缓至0.6%，11月能源价格环比下降1.7%，最近四个月内第三个月下跌，是总体CPI放缓的推手。巴克莱还预计，11月核心CPI环比增长0.3%，同比增长6.0%，其中核心服务通胀环比增长0.42%、同比增长6.8%；核心商品仍将是温和通缩，料将环比下降0.16%，较10月创近二十年来第三大通缩幅度的环比降幅0.38%缓和。巴克莱认为，核心服务通胀仍强劲，只是增长在放缓，并不是增长缓慢，它再次得到住房通胀强劲的支持。不计新冠疫情初期在内，0.42%将是2005年初以来核心服务通胀的最高月环比增速。巴克莱还认为，要留意未来CPI数据中剔除住房的核心服务通胀，因为美联储主席鲍威尔上周在讲话中特别提到，剔除住房的核心服务，称它“可能是理解未来核心通胀演变的最重要类别”。它还提到了和劳动力市场密切相关的住房以外服务业，称“因为薪资组成了提供这些服务的最大一类成本，劳动力市场掌握着理解该类别通胀的钥匙”。核心商品方面，巴克莱认为，11月将继续通缩的趋势来自一大推手，即全球供应链的压力普遍且迅速地缓和，目前的供应链压力只是略为超过新冠疫情前水平。而且，零售商的库存目前大部分重建，处于接近疫情前趋势的水平，这应该会继续帮助平衡能源和食品以外的商品供需。巴克莱还发现，多个分项类别将推动核心商品下行，比如价格已连跌四个月的二手车。中期预测方面，巴克莱的CPI预期相比之前变化很小，但会继续体现美国国内通胀道路的不确定性很高。其预计，今年12月的总体CPI将同比增长6.5%，2023年、即明年12月的同比增速将放缓至2.7%，到2024年12月进一步降至2.3%。总体CPI今年同比增长8.0%、明年增4.3%，2024年增2.4%。明年的总体通胀疲软部分源于届时能源价格下跌。巴克莱预计，今年12月核心CPI同比增速从9月的巅峰6.7%放缓至5.8%，到明年12月，同比增速降至2.9%，到2024年12月，进一步放缓至2.4%。巴克莱预计，今年、明年和2024年的核心服务通胀分别同比增长6.9%、4.2%和3.2%，其中住房通胀的同比增速料将在明年上半年达到顶峰，明年多数时间超过6%，到2024年末，回落到接近3%。对于核心商品，巴克莱预计明年上半年都会处于温和通缩阶段，今年、明年和2024年的核心商品同比增速将分别为2.8%、0.4%和0.3%。这一预测是基于假定全球供应链放缓将持续，并最终在明年底以前回到接近历史正常水平，而且明年二季度将开始出现温和衰退，影响商品的需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,".IXIC":1,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"PSQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"CPI":1,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965324043,"gmtCreate":1669899320683,"gmtModify":1676538265872,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965324043","repostId":"1131592336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131592336","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669888770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131592336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-01 17:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Global debt costs soar! What does it mean?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131592336","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A violent storm is brewing. The era of cheap money is rapidly becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. At present, many countries are in high debt and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) recently, the total global debt in the third quarter was US $290 trillion. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>As central banks continue their rate hike, borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments continue to rise, and economic and financial market risks pile up.</p><p>From the government level, compared with developed countries, emerging markets face greater debt risks, especially those countries that borrow a lot of dollar debt. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing up in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage expenditure is the heaviest burden for most families, so it is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>Worst-case scenario,<b>Some components of the global financial system may collapse.</b>From the large-scale bankruptcy of Japanese enterprises in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debts turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries survived the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been increasing, and a large part of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to already heavily indebted households.</b></p><p>Such \"time bombs\" no longer exist after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but they do in other countries.</p><p>For example, Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the countries with the highest household debt in the world, with a household debt-to-income ratio of 180%. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund after some borrowers had begun cutting payments.</p><p>At present, the ratio of household debt to income in Australia exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgage loans in the second quarter of this year were in a fragile financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached 6 times or higher.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). In Holland, Sweden and Norway, debt repayment as a proportion of household income is already much higher than this figure. If central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this proportion will exceed 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Joe Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, recently said that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand will also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, household debt, which accounts for more than 40% of mortgage loans, reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about 9.8989 trillion yuan) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters, and maintaining growth for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. A recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous baseline (100%). Private debt is mainly household debt.</p><p><b>More businesses will become insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF data, companies (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments and are the largest borrowers in the era of cheap money, but unlike governments, companies cannot solve debt crises by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has hit some so-called \"zombie companies\" the hardest, which generally can only make just enough money to repay their debts. In some ways, about one in five publicly traded companies already fit that definition when interest rates were low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", and the companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>The default rate of global junk bonds will almost double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the US $6.7 trillion high-rated corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. small and medium-sized businesses that tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. With the Fed's rate hike peaking early next year, they are likely to be forced to lay off staff. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment of the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, both stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that Federal Funds rate would be close to 5% during the lifetime of these deals.</b><b>The minutes of the November Federal Reserve FOMC meeting released last week showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden leverage\" in the non-bank sector that could undermine the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are even more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnamese and Indonesian real estate bond prices fell sharply; South Korea's Legoland default in October triggered panic selling in the credit market, and it also aggravated people's fears of default by real estate companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies usually don't face the same direct challenges to households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that doesn't mean they are impeccable.</p><p>Take the United Kingdom as an example. Former Prime Minister Truss's large-scale tax reduction plan almost collapsed the domestic Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the UK financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government still faces the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>Italy's public debt problem is almost the biggest headache among advanced economies.</b>According to the data previously released by Eurostat, by the end of the first quarter of this year, Italian government debt accounted for 152.6% of GDP, second only to Greece's 189.3%. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>By 2030, the interest that the government alone needs to pay will exceed 7% of GDP.</b></p><p>The United States may also face political difficulties on its debt issue. Faced with \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way for the Biden administration at present is to raise the debt ceiling, which requires the support of Republicans. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, domestic bank interest rates in the United States will soar, the stock market will plummet, and pension accounts will shrink sharply, and the U.S. economy will suffer a fatal blow.</p><p>In contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>Data released by the IIF last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, comparable to the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or face high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global debt costs soar! What does it mean?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal debt costs soar! What does it mean?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-01 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A violent storm is brewing. The era of cheap money is rapidly becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. At present, many countries are in high debt and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) recently, the total global debt in the third quarter was US $290 trillion. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>As central banks continue their rate hike, borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments continue to rise, and economic and financial market risks pile up.</p><p>From the government level, compared with developed countries, emerging markets face greater debt risks, especially those countries that borrow a lot of dollar debt. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing up in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage expenditure is the heaviest burden for most families, so it is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>Worst-case scenario,<b>Some components of the global financial system may collapse.</b>From the large-scale bankruptcy of Japanese enterprises in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debts turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries survived the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been increasing, and a large part of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to already heavily indebted households.</b></p><p>Such \"time bombs\" no longer exist after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but they do in other countries.</p><p>For example, Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the countries with the highest household debt in the world, with a household debt-to-income ratio of 180%. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund after some borrowers had begun cutting payments.</p><p>At present, the ratio of household debt to income in Australia exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgage loans in the second quarter of this year were in a fragile financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached 6 times or higher.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). In Holland, Sweden and Norway, debt repayment as a proportion of household income is already much higher than this figure. If central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this proportion will exceed 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Joe Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, recently said that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand will also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, household debt, which accounts for more than 40% of mortgage loans, reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about 9.8989 trillion yuan) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters, and maintaining growth for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. A recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous baseline (100%). Private debt is mainly household debt.</p><p><b>More businesses will become insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF data, companies (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments and are the largest borrowers in the era of cheap money, but unlike governments, companies cannot solve debt crises by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has hit some so-called \"zombie companies\" the hardest, which generally can only make just enough money to repay their debts. In some ways, about one in five publicly traded companies already fit that definition when interest rates were low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", and the companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>The default rate of global junk bonds will almost double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the US $6.7 trillion high-rated corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. small and medium-sized businesses that tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. With the Fed's rate hike peaking early next year, they are likely to be forced to lay off staff. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment of the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, both stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that Federal Funds rate would be close to 5% during the lifetime of these deals.</b><b>The minutes of the November Federal Reserve FOMC meeting released last week showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden leverage\" in the non-bank sector that could undermine the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are even more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnamese and Indonesian real estate bond prices fell sharply; South Korea's Legoland default in October triggered panic selling in the credit market, and it also aggravated people's fears of default by real estate companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies usually don't face the same direct challenges to households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that doesn't mean they are impeccable.</p><p>Take the United Kingdom as an example. Former Prime Minister Truss's large-scale tax reduction plan almost collapsed the domestic Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the UK financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government still faces the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>Italy's public debt problem is almost the biggest headache among advanced economies.</b>According to the data previously released by Eurostat, by the end of the first quarter of this year, Italian government debt accounted for 152.6% of GDP, second only to Greece's 189.3%. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>By 2030, the interest that the government alone needs to pay will exceed 7% of GDP.</b></p><p>The United States may also face political difficulties on its debt issue. Faced with \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way for the Biden administration at present is to raise the debt ceiling, which requires the support of Republicans. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, domestic bank interest rates in the United States will soar, the stock market will plummet, and pension accounts will shrink sharply, and the U.S. economy will suffer a fatal blow.</p><p>In contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>Data released by the IIF last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, comparable to the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or face high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131592336","content_text":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债务总额三季度为290万亿美元，虽然较年初的历史高位有所下降，但仍比十年前增加了三分之一以上。随着各国央行继续加息，家庭、企业和政府的借贷成本继续上升，经济和金融市场风险堆积如山。从政府层面来看，相较于发达国家，新兴市场面临的债务风险更大，尤其是那些大量借入美元债的国家。至于企业，信贷紧缩的迹象已经在全球金融领域显现出来。而对消费者而言，房贷支出是多数家庭最沉重的负担，因此这也是最危险的地方。最坏的情况是，全球金融体系中的某些组成部分可能会崩溃。从上世纪90年代日本企业大规模破产，到之后几十年的美国次贷危机和欧债危机，债务变成坏账的例子比比皆是。被房贷“压垮”的家庭有些国家在大衰退中躲过了房地产和银行业的崩溃，因此国内家庭债务一直在增加，并且有很大一部分是浮动利率抵押贷款，这也意味着央行更高的利率会迅速传导到已经负债累累的家庭身上。美国家庭经历过次贷危机后已经不存在这样的“定时炸弹”了，TS Lombard经济学家Dario Perkins最近表示，但其他国家存在这种情况。比如加拿大、澳大利亚和韩国。加拿大是世界上家庭负债最高的国家之一，家庭债务与收入比高达180%。最近，总部位于多伦多的房地产贷款机构Romspen Investment Corp.暂停了对其最大抵押贷款基金的赎回，原因是一些借款人已经开始断供。澳大利亚家庭负债与收入之比目前超过了200%，近期，该国金融监管机构估计，今年二季度办理抵押贷款的客户有22%财政状况比较脆弱，因为他们的债务收入比达到6倍或更高。在英国，大多数抵押贷款的利率将在两到三年后重新调整，债务偿还额有望超过所有家庭收入的10% (不仅仅是抵押贷款借款)。在荷兰、瑞典和挪威，债务偿还额占家庭收入比例已经远远高于这一数字，如果各国央行按照预期继续加息，这一比例将超15%迈进。亚洲方面，惠誉评级亚太区银行评级主管乔Jonathan Cornish近期表示，韩国、马来西亚和泰国等国家的房贷者也将受到挤压。在韩国，房贷占比超过40%的家庭负债在9月底高达1870.6万亿韩元(约合人民币9.8989万亿元)，连续两个季度刷新历史最高纪录，自2013年第二季度以来连续38个季度保持增势。IMF近期报告也显示，今年二季度，韩国民间负债与GDP的比率为173.6%，远远超过IMF的危险基准线(100%)。民间负债以家庭负债为主。违约飙升，更多企业将资不抵债根据IIF的数据，企业(金融行业以外)与政府齐头并进，都是廉价资金时代的最大借款人，但与政府不同的是，企业不能通过印钞来解决债务危机。今年债务成本飙升，对于一些所谓“僵尸公司”的冲击最大，这类公司一般只能赚到刚刚够偿还债务的钱。从某些方面来看，大约五分之一的上市公司在利率较低时就已经符合这一定义。当债务成本飙升，将有更多公司沦为“僵尸公司”，而已经在列的公司则可能会破产。穆迪分析公司估计，全球垃圾债明年的违约率将几乎翻一番。根据巴克莱银行的分析，在价值6.7万亿美元的美国高评级企业债市场，有迹象表明，违约情况可能是过去50年中最严重的。杰富瑞首席金融经济学家Aneta Markowska表示，对于倾向于以浮动利率从银行借款的美国中小企业而言，最糟糕的时刻尚未到来。随着明年年初美联储加息达到峰值，他们很可能被迫裁员。她表示：我预计第一季度会出现更多裂缝，因为这些小企业开始感受到加息的痛苦。在过去数年的低利率环境中，私人信贷市场近年来进行了许多大型杠杆融资，但随着美联储持续加息，股债齐跌，高风险资产价格暴跌，曾经“生金蛋的鹅”成了烫手山芋。Markowska表示：债务在被承销时，没有人会想到，在这些交易的有生之年，联邦基金利率会接近5%。上周公布的11月份美联储FOMC会议纪要显示，一些政策制定者指出，非银行部门的“隐性杠杆”可能破坏大型全球市场的功能。投资者对亚洲的担忧更甚，美元走强使得以美元计价的债务更加昂贵。越南和印尼地产债价格大幅下跌；韩国10月乐高乐园违约事件引发信贷市场恐慌性抛售，同时也加剧了人们对房企违约的担忧。新兴市场站在破产边缘对于发达经济体而言，以本币发债的政府通常不会在利率上升时面临向家庭和企业那样的直接挑战，但这并不意味着他们是无懈可击的。拿英国来说，前首相特拉斯的大规模减税计划差点搞崩本国国债市场。目前，特拉斯已经下台，英国金融市场企稳，但由于英国央行的加息步伐短期内难以改变，新政府明年仍面临借贷成本翻倍的挑战。意大利公共债务问题是发达经济体中几乎是最令人头疼的。欧盟统计局此前公布的数据显示，到今年第一季度末，意大利政府债务占GDP比例为152.6%，仅次于希腊的189.3%。令据彭博经济估计，到2030年，光是政府需要支付的利息就将超过GDP的7%。美国在债务问题上也可能面临政治难题。面对“野蛮生长”的债务，拜登政府目前唯一的办法就是提高债务上限，而这需要共和党人的支持。有分析人士预测，若美国两党无法就提高债务上限达成妥协，明年第三季度美国或陷入债务违约危机。届时，美国国内银行利率飙升、股市暴跌、养老金账户大幅缩水，美国经济将遭到致命打击。相比之下，许多新兴市场已经在主权债务危机里挣扎多时了。斯里兰卡和赞比亚双双违约，埃及和巴基斯坦等国家也面临违约风险。IIF上周二公布的数据显示，三季度发展中经济体的债务与GDP之比上升到254%，与2021年第一季度创下的纪录高位相当。IMF数据也显示，超过60%的低收入国家处于债务困境，或者面临债务困境高风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961355017,"gmtCreate":1668851992339,"gmtModify":1676538121807,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961355017","repostId":"1151520886","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935610332,"gmtCreate":1663079640426,"gmtModify":1676537198549,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935610332","repostId":"1173659533","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932109316,"gmtCreate":1662885568135,"gmtModify":1676537157868,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932109316","repostId":"2266332630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171742420,"gmtCreate":1626768650560,"gmtModify":1703764824160,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171742420","repostId":"1139691377","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924464888,"gmtCreate":1672313110044,"gmtModify":1676538670551,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924464888","repostId":"1107137579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}