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Coinbase's "Record 48% Subscription Revenue" Is Partly An Illusion. I'm Still Long It.

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$   Mathematical Money | October 18, 2026 $COIN$ closed Friday at $173.16, down 5.8% on the day. That leaves it 54% below its 52-week high of $373, and about 5% under its 200-day average. Worth noting what that Friday actually was. Bitcoin barely moved, finishing near $82,000. The Nasdaq fell 2.1%. Coinbase was sold as a technology stock that day rather than as a crypto proxy, which is a distinction worth holding on to if you own it as a bitcoin substitute. I hold the shares, I write calls above them and puts below them, and I have not reduced the position. But I spent this week going through every business line properly, and the headline everybody repeated after the last quarter does not survive the check. I
Coinbase's "Record 48% Subscription Revenue" Is Partly An Illusion. I'm Still Long It.
$COIN 20261030 200.0 CALL$ Covered call. Previously closed the 185 hoping i could time it. Mr. Market told me no way, so covering it back anyway to continue getting the theta decay 
$MARA 20261113 10.0 CALL$ Selling more covered calls 
$WDC DIAGONAL 261023/261106 CALL 405.0/CALL 385.0$ Rolling down and out to gain more premium. Stocks continue to fall as fear grips the market. Cant do much so continue to take in premium 
$BMNR 20261023 21.0 PUT$ Cash secured put at 1 week out. Nibbling 
$BMNR 20261113 25.0 CALL$ Covered call. Sold a 0dte put earlier.  Market continued to sell down. So likely gonna be assigned. Selling in advance to capture the prenium. 
$COIN CALENDAR 261016/261113 PUT 180.0/PUT 180.0$ Rolling out at the same strike. Still bullish on coinbase but market seems to be too shitty now 
$AVGO CALENDAR 261023/261113 CALL 400.0/CALL 400.0$ Closing the almost worthless short call. And reopening at a later date. Rolling out for a good $1.20 per contract 
$MARA 20261113 11.0 CALL$ Covered call. Low premium is better than no premium. 
$BMNR 20261016 23.0 PUT$ Cash secured put. Only a very small position. 

The Market Is Paying AppLovin For 20% Growth. It Just Reported 52.8%. I'm Still Not Adding.

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$   Mathematical Money | October 2026 Run AppLovin's valuation backwards and you get a precise answer. At Tuesday's close of $262.19, the price assumes free cash flow grows 20% a year for a decade. After that, 2.5% forever. The company reported revenue growth of 52.8% last quarter. A gap that size normally means something is badly mispriced. I own this one, I have been wrong on it all year, and I am still not adding — because three other numbers from the same analysis say the obvious conclusion is a trap. Here is the whole thing, including the checks you can run yourself. Check one: what growth is the price already assuming? Most people value a company forwards. You forecast growth, discount it, get a number, com
The Market Is Paying AppLovin For 20% Growth. It Just Reported 52.8%. I'm Still Not Adding.
$COIN 20261023 185.0 CALL$ Closing the short call at a profit. Brutal sell off today. Probably wait a few days before opening a covered call again.
$MARA 20261120 12.0 CALL$ Keep selling the covered call. Some are expiring this week at 13 hence almost worthless and letting it expire. Not gonna reach there anyway 
$MARA 20261113 11.5 CALL$ Really cant do much in this kind of shitty market. Keep selling to get premium 

Yesterday Korea's Memory Stocks Fell 8% On A China Scare. ASML Has Never Shipped China A Single EUV Machine

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$   Mathematical Money | October 2026 Yesterday the KOSPI broke below 6,000 intraday. SK Hynix fell more than 9%, Samsung Electronics more than 8%, and a sell-side trading curb was triggered for the first time in two months. The trigger was CXMT, a Chinese memory maker, announcing progress on a memory-cell design that packs more storage into less space. Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are roughly 90% of the world's DRAM, so a credible Chinese entrant with a density advantage threatens all three at once. I wrote about it that day because I own Western Digital, and I argued the selloff was being applied to companies it did not belong to. This morning the one company that decides whether anybody can build dense memory at
Yesterday Korea's Memory Stocks Fell 8% On A China Scare. ASML Has Never Shipped China A Single EUV Machine

Coinbase's "Record 48% Subscription Revenue" Is Partly An Illusion. I'm Still Long It.

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$   Mathematical Money | October 14, 2026 COINBASE closed Monday at $180.39, which is 50% below its 52-week high of $361 and 1.7% under its 200-day average. I hold the shares, I write calls above them and puts below them, and I have not reduced the position. But I spent this week going through every business line properly, and the headline everybody repeated after the last quarter does not survive the check. I would rather be the one to say so. The illusion, first The reported line was that 48% of net revenue came from subscriptions and services, a record, and that Coinbase has successfully diversified away from trading. Here is what that leaves out. Subscription revenue was $727 million in Q4 2025. It was $55
Coinbase's "Record 48% Subscription Revenue" Is Partly An Illusion. I'm Still Long It.
$MARA 20261106 11.5 CALL$ Selling more covered calls. Premium abit low for this but was trying to balance up the number of contracts expiring each week. Nothing special, just pure OCD. Haha

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