Coinbase's "Record 48% Subscription Revenue" Is Partly An Illusion. I'm Still Long It.
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Mathematical Money | October 18, 2026 $COIN$ closed Friday at $173.16, down 5.8% on the day. That leaves it 54% below its 52-week high of $373, and about 5% under its 200-day average. Worth noting what that Friday actually was. Bitcoin barely moved, finishing near $82,000. The Nasdaq fell 2.1%. Coinbase was sold as a technology stock that day rather than as a crypto proxy, which is a distinction worth holding on to if you own it as a bitcoin substitute. I hold the shares, I write calls above them and puts below them, and I have not reduced the position. But I spent this week going through every business line properly, and the headline everybody repeated after the last quarter does not survive the check. I
$COIN 20261030 200.0 CALL$ Covered call. Previously closed the 185 hoping i could time it. Mr. Market told me no way, so covering it back anyway to continue getting the theta decay
$BMNR 20261113 25.0 CALL$ Covered call. Sold a 0dte put earlier. Market continued to sell down. So likely gonna be assigned. Selling in advance to capture the prenium.
The Market Is Paying AppLovin For 20% Growth. It Just Reported 52.8%. I'm Still Not Adding.
$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ Mathematical Money | October 2026 Run AppLovin's valuation backwards and you get a precise answer. At Tuesday's close of $262.19, the price assumes free cash flow grows 20% a year for a decade. After that, 2.5% forever. The company reported revenue growth of 52.8% last quarter. A gap that size normally means something is badly mispriced. I own this one, I have been wrong on it all year, and I am still not adding — because three other numbers from the same analysis say the obvious conclusion is a trap. Here is the whole thing, including the checks you can run yourself. Check one: what growth is the price already assuming? Most people value a company forwards. You forecast growth, discount it, get a number, com
$MARA 20261120 12.0 CALL$ Keep selling the covered call. Some are expiring this week at 13 hence almost worthless and letting it expire. Not gonna reach there anyway
Yesterday Korea's Memory Stocks Fell 8% On A China Scare. ASML Has Never Shipped China A Single EUV Machine
$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Mathematical Money | October 2026 Yesterday the KOSPI broke below 6,000 intraday. SK Hynix fell more than 9%, Samsung Electronics more than 8%, and a sell-side trading curb was triggered for the first time in two months. The trigger was CXMT, a Chinese memory maker, announcing progress on a memory-cell design that packs more storage into less space. Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are roughly 90% of the world's DRAM, so a credible Chinese entrant with a density advantage threatens all three at once. I wrote about it that day because I own Western Digital, and I argued the selloff was being applied to companies it did not belong to. This morning the one company that decides whether anybody can build dense memory at
Coinbase's "Record 48% Subscription Revenue" Is Partly An Illusion. I'm Still Long It.
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Mathematical Money | October 14, 2026 COINBASE closed Monday at $180.39, which is 50% below its 52-week high of $361 and 1.7% under its 200-day average. I hold the shares, I write calls above them and puts below them, and I have not reduced the position. But I spent this week going through every business line properly, and the headline everybody repeated after the last quarter does not survive the check. I would rather be the one to say so. The illusion, first The reported line was that 48% of net revenue came from subscriptions and services, a record, and that Coinbase has successfully diversified away from trading. Here is what that leaves out. Subscription revenue was $727 million in Q4 2025. It was $55
$MARA 20261106 11.5 CALL$ Selling more covered calls. Premium abit low for this but was trying to balance up the number of contracts expiring each week. Nothing special, just pure OCD. Haha