$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Mathematical Money | October 12, 2026 On 1 October I posted the levels I was watching on $COIN$ , four zones drawn off nine months of price action, with no model behind them beyond where the stock had actually spent its time. In the nine days since, four separate houses published new price targets on the same company. Every one of them was a raise. Barclays went to $149, Bank of America to $203, Goldman Sachs to $244, Morgan Stanley to $258. Then I went back and put their numbers on my zones, which I had not expected to be interesting and turned out to be the most interesting thing I have looked at this week. Where their targets land on my map Barclays at $149 sits inside what I called the liquidity grab z
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$COIN 20261023 185.0 CALL$ Closing the short call at a profit. Brutal sell off today. Probably wait a few days before opening a covered call again.
$MARA 20261120 12.0 CALL$ Keep selling the covered call. Some are expiring this week at 13 hence almost worthless and letting it expire. Not gonna reach there anyway
$MARA 20261113 11.5 CALL$ Really cant do much in this kind of shitty market. Keep selling to get premium
Yesterday Korea's Memory Stocks Fell 8% On A China Scare. ASML Has Never Shipped China A Single EUV Machine
$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Mathematical Money | October 2026 Yesterday the KOSPI broke below 6,000 intraday. SK Hynix fell more than 9%, Samsung Electronics more than 8%, and a sell-side trading curb was triggered for the first time in two months. The trigger was CXMT, a Chinese memory maker, announcing progress on a memory-cell design that packs more storage into less space. Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are roughly 90% of the world's DRAM, so a credible Chinese entrant with a density advantage threatens all three at once. I wrote about it that day because I own Western Digital, and I argued the selloff was being applied to companies it did not belong to. This morning the one company that decides whether anybody can build dense memory at
Coinbase's "Record 48% Subscription Revenue" Is Partly An Illusion. I'm Still Long It.
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Mathematical Money | October 14, 2026 COINBASE closed Monday at $180.39, which is 50% below its 52-week high of $361 and 1.7% under its 200-day average. I hold the shares, I write calls above them and puts below them, and I have not reduced the position. But I spent this week going through every business line properly, and the headline everybody repeated after the last quarter does not survive the check. I would rather be the one to say so. The illusion, first The reported line was that 48% of net revenue came from subscriptions and services, a record, and that Coinbase has successfully diversified away from trading. Here is what that leaves out. Subscription revenue was $727 million in Q4 2025. It was $55
$MARA 20261106 11.5 CALL$ Selling more covered calls. Premium abit low for this but was trying to balance up the number of contracts expiring each week. Nothing special, just pure OCD. Haha
$COIN DIAGONAL 261023/261030 CALL 180.0/CALL 185.0$ Rolling out by 1 week from 180 to 185. Current underlying is at 180 and holding well. Pushing it 1 week out and having the potential of $5 stock gain. Still currently in the boring zone between 160-200. Consolidating, buyers and sellers changing hands. Looking forward to the earnings call end of the month.
$WDC 20261023 405.0 CALL$ Selling covered call. Holding quite a bit. So dont mind if it shoots up and get sold at this price. Even if it stays sideways, I'll still be able to collect premium and bring down my average cost.
$MARA 20261113 11.5 CALL$ Not the best time and price to sell. But still gotta keep selling covered calls according to plan. Generally the market has been selling down over the past month for small caps as they are more affected by the rising interest rates. S&P still continue to hit new highs as the mag7 are carrying it further and further. Huge proportion of the smaller caps are way below their all time high. Not sure when it will bounce as I dont have the crystal ball. Can only continue taking premium off the stock as part of the consolation.
$FSLR DIAGONAL 280121/261030 CALL 135.0/CALL 200.0$ Closing position at almost breakeven. Re adjusting my positions so that I have more resources for the wheel rather than the convex portion of my portfolio.
$WDC 20261016 405.0 CALL$ Closing the near worthless short call. Taking profit first before deciding what to do for this combi.
Korea's Memory Stocks Fell 8% Today. Western Digital Doesn't Make Memory
$Western Digital(WDC)$ Mathematical Money | October 13, 2026 The KOSPI broke below 6,000 today, down more than 7% intraday and triggering a sell-side trading curb for the first time in two months. SK Hynix fell over 9%. Samsung Electronics over 8%. $WDC$ is down about 6% as I write, at roughly $362 against Monday's close of $387. I own the shares, I own long-dated calls, and I wrote about this sector eight days ago. So I went and read what actually happened rather than assuming the move told me something about my position. It mostly doesn't, but the part that does is uncomfortable, and I would rather set out both than pick the half that suits the position. What actually happened in Korea The trigger was CXMT, a Chinese memory maker, whi
The Midterm October Stat Everyone Is Quoting Is Being Tested Against The Wrong Number
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Mathematical Money | October 13, 2026 The midterms are on Tuesday 3 November, twenty-three days away, and the seasonality charts are out in force. The headline number is a good one: since 1950, October in a midterm year has averaged +3.0% for the S&P 500 and finished higher 73.7% of the time. November is similar at +2.7% and 78.9%. I like these posts and I read all of them. I also went and checked this one, because a 73.7% hit rate is the sort of number that should make you ask what it is being compared against. It turns out the comparison almost nobody states is the one that decides whether the pattern means anything, and once you make it the edge mostly disappears. First, the sample is bigger than
$MARA 20261113 11.5 CALL$ Covered call at yet another more painful price. Strike below my cost, but continue selling according to planned delta. The drop continues.
I Drew Four Zones On Coinbase Nine Days Ago. The Street's New Targets Land In Three Of Them.
I Drew Four Zones On Coinbase Nine Days Ago. The Street's New Targets Land In Three Of Them.
OpenAI Earns About $50 Billion A Year. It Has Promised Oracle More Than $300 Billion
$Oracle(ORCL)$ Mathematical Money | October 11, 2026 $ORCL$ fell 5.5% on Wednesday and then took 4.2% of it back on Thursday, finishing the week down about half a percent. If you only looked at Friday's close you'd think nothing happened. Something did happen, and it wasn't really about the number everyone reported. The reaction was pointing at a genuine problem and aiming at the wrong figure entirely. What the news actually said The Financial Times reported that OpenAI told investors its annualised revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September, against a $70 billion figure that had been circulating. A $20 billion gap, roughly 30% of the headline. Here's the part that got lost in the reaction. That gap wasn't lost busines
OpenAI Earns About $50 Billion A Year. It Has Promised Oracle More Than $300 Billion
Haha. Self praise. But ok, there's always two sides of it, some truth and some blown up.
Trump: I Settled 8 Wars, Close to Ending or Settling 2 More, But Didn't Get the Nobel Peace Prize. WOW!
I Collected 49 Cents To Buy MARA At $12. On Friday It Closed At $9.65
$MARA Holdings(MARA)$ Mathematical Money | October 11, 2026 $MARA$ closed Friday at $9.65, down 14.1% on the week from $11.23 and through $10 for the first time this cycle. It was an ugly five sessions for a stock that had already had a few of those. I'd been short puts into that expiry at the $12 and $11.50 strikes, sold on 18 September for 49 cents and 53 cents a contract. Both finished in the money on Friday, so the shares were assigned to me. I said in advance that I'd report which way it went, so here it is, with the arithmetic done per share because that's the only way to see it clearly. What it actually cost The premium reduces what I paid. On the $12 strike my effective purchase price is $11.51, and on the $11.50 strike it's $1
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