$Pilbara Minerals Ltd(PLS.AU)$ $PILBARA MINERALS LTD(PILBF)$ is a great example of a massively bloated EV in a cyclical that has plenty of room to shrink... as soon as FCF dries up or turns negative, you realise how expensive it still is (even with all that cash). $Pilbara Minerals Ltd(PLS.AU)$ $PILBARA MINERALS LTD(PILBF)$ "short squeeze" will happen when everyone who has bought in anticipation of a short squeeze has been wiped out Spoke too soon big red car. Down she goes Warrants gotta blow up first before she moves…Imagehttps://twitter.com/LukeyTrags/status/1731831464562655713

For as long as the insanity continues, buybacks will remain a key capital mgmt strategy for non-ESG friendly co's. The valuation multiples long term are simply too attractive thanks to this obsessive climate change narrative. $New Hope(NHC.AU)$ Imagehttps://twitter.com/LukeyTrags/status/1724912233250197570

Here is the performance of ASX thermal coal peers adjusted for divs since the BHP $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ deal. It is clear that recent weakness is a result of the underlying commodity prices $New Hope(NHC.AU)$ $Yancoal Australia(YAL.AU)$ $WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD(WHC.AU)$ $Terracom(TER.AU)$ ImageFor context comparing to it's direct peer & adjusted for divs, NHC is down ~15% since the tweet (5% more than WHC) & WHC is outperforming by ~20% since the deal. IMO this shows it's a result of NEWC. If anything, WHC appears to be holding up better due to the deal.Imagehttp

$YANCOAL AUS(03668)$ YAL research note from CMB International.PT of HK$53 (AUD$9.80) w/ assumptions & sensitivities below:Using their assumptions, if you take a 13month approach, you pick up 3 divs (~$2.50) w/ $3.5B cash on the balance sheet. If you take a 25month approach, you pick up 5 divs (~$3.80) w/ $4B cash.https://twitter.com/LukeyTrags/status/1627877424078917633

$WHC massive block trade (~5% of register). Biggest vol day of the last 12months. Sourced from IRESS. #CoalTwitter $WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD(WHC.AU)$ Substantial holders list:Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

$WHC massive block trade (~5% of register). Biggest vol day of the last 12months. Sourced from IRESS. #Coal  $WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD(WHC.AU)$

Miners say #graphite is poised to be #lithium 2.0. A lot of investors have been anticipating this...Woah a 3M unit $WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD(WHC.AU)$ line just went through at $9.30... yep that's a ~$28M buy line!Follow me to learn more about stock moves!!

This chart (ticker: S5TH) shows the percent of stocks trading above/below their 200DMA (one of the most common indicators) dating back to 2007. Currently, 85.7% of stocks in the #SPX are trading below their 200DMA. This is entering territory seen during the #GFC & #COVID crashes.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Follow me to learn more about stock moves!!

$Volt Resources(VRC.AU)$$VRC charting thread update: zooming in on the weekly log we can see that after consolidating along w/ the recent market weakness the last couple wks, it looks to be bouncing for another attempt at a major b/o of resistance dating back to 2012 (original tweet). #graphite$VRC daily normal chart (via IRESS). We can see that the 50DMA has crossed both the 100 & 200. The last time this happened was in 2020 & it ran 400%. The recent selloff on declining volume looks exhausted & has found support + bouncing off these 3DMAs simultaneously.#graphiteFollow me to learn more about analysis!!

Hello everyone! Today I want to share some views about stock markets with you.For those interested, this is how the investment universe is classified. Over 50% of invested capital is now passively invested in index/mutual funds, ETFs etc. These are structured to target benchmark weightings.Current distribution of the ASX200. Energy is very under-owned!  $XT ASX200 US$(LF1.SI)$For the SPX/S&P500 (US stock market),#energy comes in at a slightly higher allocation of 4.65%. I suspect this trend of under-ownership in the energy sector is global..$S&P 500(.SPX)$  

$WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD(WHC.AU)$ mgmt are completely aligned w/ the logic above (tweet). This would bring SOI to circa 700M (from ~1.1B) across 2yrs whilst paying divs so it can be deemed an income stock. Attached an update to the model w/ a 700M SOI column. Hold the winners! #CoalFollow me to learn more about stock analysis!!

Hello everyone! Today I want to share some views on ASX stocks with you.$WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD(WHC.AU)$  $New Hope(NHC.AU)$A week later and the $WHC : $NHC ratio (as measured from 15 Aug per above) continues to revert leading into NHC's div. Earlier this month, WHC was outperforming by ~15%. Both companies are rippers, I just find this an interesting exercise if nothing else! Coal $Volt Resources(VRC.AU)$$VRC thread update: clear b/o on the weekly log of ST resistance (minor orange line) w/ a run to 3.1c at major resistance target (

Entered $Panoramic Resources Ltd(PAN.AU)$ for an arc / breakout trade. Like the setup w/ declining vol since March (& also the last few weeks basing here in the low 20s). POC is at 26c across the last ~12M. Adding #nickel exposure probably doesn't hurt either IMO.Follow me to learn more about stock moves!!

Hello everyone, today I want to share my views of WHC and inflation with you.$WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD(WHC.AU)$ price target raised 9% to $10.00/s by Macquarie only a couple weeks later following their August 26 upgrade above. #Coal"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes" - Mark Twain.But, we see what we want to see.Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for and interpret info in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs.It's important to remain open to all possibilities. $DJIA(.DJI)$  $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  

IMO, $($WHC)$ (ex div) to $NHC (cum div) shift is occuring at the moment with savvy investors scalping some short term alpha (45 day holding period for franking entitlement). See 1month chart below #Coal#Graphite peer performance comp. of 5 key names IMO $($VRC)$ $($SYR)$ $($MNS)$ $($TLG)$ $($RNU)$ (yes some are missing but I can't fit them all onto a chart or it gets v messy).Note timeframes:- Top left = 1M- Top right = 3M- Bottom = 6M (approx. when I started sector DD)Follow me to learn more about stock moves!!

Hello everyone! Today I want to share some news about gold and currencies with you.$XGD /$XAUAUD - ASX all ords #gold index could be bottoming against spot priced in AUD. A b/o of the orange resistance would indicate fund flow returning to the sector as investors look for leveraged exposure to the underlying commodity (multiples expansion for equities). $USD/XAU(USDXAU.FOREX)$ $Barrick Gold Corp(GOLD)$ weekly 'battle of the arcs' setup:- TA swinging bullish- Equities underowned, negative sentiment + frustration, now catching a bid- on-market director buying + BBs e.g. $($NST)$ $($300M)$ -$($DXY)$ monthly OB + rejecting