The Santa Claus window is statistically favourable, but tactically it still requires discipline. How to plan the week: Positioning over prediction: Liquidity is thinning, so price moves can be exaggerated. I would favour smaller sizing, tighter risk control, and trades aligned with existing trends rather than fresh thematic bets. Leadership matters: Watch whether market leadership broadens beyond a few mega-cap names. A healthy Santa rally typically shows participation from cyclicals and selected defensives, not just headline tech. Macro silence is a feature: With limited data and policy signals, sentiment and flows dominate. That tends to reward momentum, but punishes late, leveraged entries. Bullish on the Santa rally? Cautiously, yes. Seasonality, window dressing, and reduced selling pr

Over the next 12 months, gold’s trajectory is less about a single catalyst and more about policy credibility and regime risk. Key drivers: Real rates and policy confidence Gold responds less to nominal rates than to trust in central banks. If the Federal Reserve cuts into slowing growth while inflation remains sticky, real yields compress and gold stays bid. A credible hawkish pivot would cap upside, but that requires inflation to fall cleanly without economic stress, which remains uncertain. Fiscal dominance and debt optics Persistent deficits and rising refinancing needs in the U.S. and Europe continue to favour gold as a reserve hedge. This is structural, not cyclical. Geopolitics and reserve diversification Central bank buying remains robust, especially outside the West. This provides

The rebound following Micron’s results has clearly stabilised sentiment, but whether this is a clean buy-the-dip for Nvidia depends on time horizon. Fundamentals: Morgan Stanley’s stance is credible. The AI compute cycle remains capacity-constrained, not demand-constrained. Nvidia still sits at the centre of this ecosystem, with strong visibility on data-centre orders extending into 2026. On that basis, dips driven by positioning or sentiment rather than earnings deterioration remain attractive for medium-term investors. Near-term price action: After a sharp rebound, the risk tonight is a gap-up-and-sell-the-news session. Micron’s beat reduces downside tail risk, but it also gives short-term traders an excuse to lock in gains. Nvidia has already rallied meaningfully off recent lows, so ups

Is it Micron’s “Nvidia moment”? Not quite. Nvidia benefitted from platform dominance and software lock-in. Micron and peers are riding a structural upcycle driven by AI servers needing far more DRAM and HBM per rack. The gains are broad across the memory sector rather than company-specific. How long can the imbalance last? Likely 2 to 3 years. HBM capacity is tight, capex remains disciplined after prior busts, and AI demand keeps rising. Supply will expand, but not fast enough to quickly normalise pricing. Is it too late? Late for easy upside, not late for returns. Much optimism is priced in, so upside depends on sustained pricing power rather than multiple expansion. Risk is cyclical reversal once capacity catches up. Bottom line: this is a durable but cyclical memory supercycle. Still i

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Christmas, for me, is less about escape and more about recalibration. I deliberately scale back active trading during this period. Liquidity thins, price action becomes more sentiment-driven, and the risk–reward for short-term trades deteriorates. Rather than forcing activity, I treat the final stretch of the year as a time for review rather than execution. My usual approach is a light-monitoring mode. Key levels, macro headlines, and positioning risks stay on the radar, but there is no urge to react unless something genuinely breaks framework assumptions. It is a conscious shift from doing to observing. The more valuable work happens off-market. Reviewing what worked and what did not, stress-testing convictions, reassessing

2025 can be best understood as a year of violent repricing rather than simple trend continuation. The sharp April sell-off in US equities acted as a reset. Positioning had become one-sided, valuations complacent, and macro uncertainty underestimated. The subsequent rebound to record highs was not driven by fresh optimism, but by resilience. Earnings held up, liquidity remained ample, and investors were repeatedly forced to re-risk into strength rather than conviction. Gold breaking past USD 4,000 was arguably the most revealing signal of the year. It reflected not inflation panic, but deep-seated distrust. A hedge against fiscal expansion, geopolitical fragmentation, and long-term currency debasement. That gold and equities rallied together underscored a market hedging prosperity with prot

The rebound in Nvidia alongside Micron’s earnings beat reinforces a key point. The AI-led semiconductor cycle remains fundamentally intact rather than episodic. Morgan Stanley’s conviction is grounded in structure, not sentiment. AI compute demand is broadening from training into inference, enterprise deployment, sovereign AI and edge workloads. This sustains multi-year visibility for leaders such as Broadcom and Astera Labs, alongside Nvidia at the system level. Is this a buy-the-dip for Nvidia? From a medium-term perspective, yes, selectively. Pullbacks driven by positioning, profit-taking or macro noise do not alter Nvidia’s dominant role in AI accelerators, networking and software. Valuation is elevated, but earnings revision momentum remains supportive. Tonight’s price action: A gap-u

Why 6,800 matters It is a key psychological and options-heavy strike. Without a fresh catalyst or strong mega-cap leadership, rallies into this zone tend to meet supply. Pinning vs swings Base case: Pinning dominates. Heavy near-dated options exposure typically pulls price towards the strike into the close, producing narrow ranges and late-session mean reversion. Alternative: Swings dominate only if volatility expands, for example via a sharp move in yields or a large-cap driven flow. Even then, upside breaks risk being brief without volume follow-through. Expectation Intraday probes above 6,800 are possible. A sustained close above 6,800 requires clear volume expansion. Risk-reward currently favours patience over chasing a breakout. Bottom line: Pinning pressure slightly outweighs direct

Will the bull hold S&P 500 at 6,800? 6,800 is a critical but not fragile level. The index is entering quadruple witching with an unusually large options overhang. This typically amplifies intraday volatility, but does not automatically reverse the trend. Positioning data suggests large dealer gamma clustered between ~6,750–6,850. As long as price stays within this zone, dealers are more likely to dampen downside moves through hedging flows. A clean break below 6,750 would matter. Above 6,800, the path of least resistance remains sideways to higher. Base case: 6,800 holds into expiry unless macro shocks emerge. --- How much does the BOJ rate hike matter for US stocks? Direct impact is modest. Indirect impact is real but gradual. Why the immediate effect is limited The hike from 0.5% to

$Micron Technology(MU)$   What Is Driving the Recent Move Micron’s latest earnings release exceeded Wall Street expectations on both revenue and adjusted EPS, and the company issued very strong guidance for the upcoming quarter. This performance was powered by record-high demand for memory products used in artificial intelligence infrastructure, especially high-bandwidth memory that supports advanced AI models. Analysts and market commentators are framing this as a potential “memory supercycle” driven by AI adoption in data centres and constrained supply.  Key points on this theme include: DRAM and HBM revenues expanded sharply, boosting both top line and margins.  Micron management projects memory shortages persisting beyond 202

How to View Tesla’s Recent Move to New Highs 1. Market reaction is fundamentally narrative-driven rather than based on near-term earnings growth Tesla’s shares have climbed toward or above recent record levels largely because investors are repricing the company from a pure EV manufacturer to a software-centric, autonomous-mobility and AI platform provider. The catalyst this week was Elon Musk’s confirmation that Tesla is testing driverless robotaxis without human safety monitors, rather than incremental delivery figures or auto margin improvement. This development is being treated as meaningful progression toward autonomous commercial service.  2. The narrative supports a higher stock multiple Wall Street bulls such as analysts from Mizuho and Wedbush have raised price targets, some i

Trade idea for today (tactical, short-term): Bias: Selective long in semiconductors Setup: Momentum continuation after Micron’s earnings beat and strong guidance, with spillover support for AI and memory-linked names. Execution: Enter on a pullback to intraday support or a successful retest of the 20–50 period intraday moving average. Avoid chasing the open. Let early volatility settle. Target: +3% to +5% for a day to short swing trade. Trail stops if sector breadth strengthens. Risk control: Tight stop just below the morning swing low or key intraday support. Keep position size modest due to elevated expectations. What would invalidate the trade: Broad tech weakness despite positive MU follow-through. Rising yields or sudden risk-off tone. Bottom line: This is a momentum trade, not a con

$Micron Technology(MU)$  Here is a considered, structured perspective on Micron’s strength, memory sector positioning, and the broader semiconductor landscape: --- 1. Micron’s Outperformance in Context Micron’s recent earnings beat and strong guidance reflect a favourable combination of supply discipline and robust end-market demand, especially in AI-related infrastructure. Tight supply in memory naturally supports pricing and margin stability, which in turn fuels share performance. The market reaction shows confidence in the current cycle, but elevated expectations can also compress future upside if results normalise even modestly. Key points to watch for Micron over the next few quarters: Sustainability of product pricing in DRAM and NAND, In

1. Why Tesla hit new highs and then faded intraday Tesla often exhibits short-term volatility around narratives rather than pure fundamentals. The recent comments about robotaxis without human safety drivers are an example of this. Such developments feed into the “vision” story that Tesla transcends a regular auto OEM, which can lift sentiment sharply but also lead to profit-taking when traders realise: regulatory and safety hurdles remain substantial, actual revenue from robotaxis is still hypothetical, and valuation already embeds a lot of future growth. So, hitting intraday highs before a retreat signals optimism on narrative catalysts but caution on cash flows and execution risk. --- 2. Is a breakout above US$500 possible? Yes, but not guaranteed and not linear. A breakout has conditio

The BoJ decision matters less for the 25 bps move itself and more for what it symbolises. On a potential market reversal A “normal” BoJ hike would close the final chapter of ultra-easy global monetary policy. Psychologically, this is the shoe many markets have been waiting to see drop. The risk is not Japan per se, but the secondary effects. Higher Japanese yields can encourage capital repatriation, putting upward pressure on global yields and the USD funding complex. That tends to tighten financial conditions at the margin, which is unfriendly for richly valued US equities, especially momentum-driven AI and growth names. That said, a single BoJ hike is unlikely to be a standalone trigger for a full reversal unless it coincides with rising US yields, hawkish Fed repricing, or disappointing

1. Breakout or failed rally? A breakout is confirmed only if price holds above prior resistance with follow-through. Multiple closes, stable structure, and volume support matter more than a single high. If price quickly slips back into the old range, it is a failed rally driven by momentum chasing rather than conviction. 2. Adding at a key moving average I prefer to wait for confirmation. A moving average is a zone, not a signal. Higher-probability adds come when price shows acceptance, such as a higher low or a strong close back above the average. Buying the first touch works in strong trends, but confirmation reduces false entries and drawdowns. 3. Technicals vs fundamentals or news It depends on timeframe. Short to medium term, I trust price and technicals because they reflect real po

At ~US$490, Tesla’s valuation is no longer anchored to the auto cycle. It is anchored to execution on optionality. The most critical assumptions embedded at this level are the following: 1. Robotaxi commercialisation moves from promise to scale The market is pricing in not just technical viability, but regulatory approval, safety validation, and fleet-scale deployment within a credible timeframe. Testing without safety drivers is symbolically important, but valuation assumes meaningful revenue contribution, not pilot headlines. 2. Software-like margins materialise Tesla is implicitly valued as a platform, not a manufacturer. That requires sustained high-margin revenue from autonomy, subscriptions, and services. If margins remain auto-like, the multiple is difficult to defend. 3. Capital di

The current pullback in U.S. equities reflects a rotation rather than a broad risk-off event. The underperformance of the Nasdaq signals valuation sensitivity within AI-linked names, especially those that have rallied aggressively on forward-looking narratives. Broadcom and Oracle are being repriced not on earnings failure, but on expectations discipline. Markets are reassessing capex intensity, margin visibility, and the timing of AI monetisation rather than abandoning the theme outright. Broadcom’s three-day decline, its sharpest since 2020, highlights how crowded positioning and elevated expectations can amplify downside when guidance lacks incremental upside. Oracle’s weakness reinforces similar concerns around cash flow strain and execution risk amid heavy investment cycles. Important

Here is a structured view on the drivers of gold prices over the next 12 months, the recent strength in gold and silver, and whether silver might continue to outperform or gold could reach US$5,000 per ounce in 2026. Primary Drivers for Gold Prices 1. Safe-haven demand and global risk sentiment Gold remains sensitive to geopolitical tension, macroeconomic uncertainty, and stock market stress. Heightened risk aversion tends to shift capital into bullion. Central banks and institutions have been significant buyers, supporting prices.  2. Monetary policy expectations Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker US dollar reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Softer yields on bonds make non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive, reinforcing its appeal as a hedge ag

Watching: Nvidia. Structural AI demand remains intact, but near-term price action is sensitive to positioning and any negative headlines. I am observing for confirmation rather than chasing strength. Avoiding: High-beta small-cap AI and speculative thematic names. Many have run far ahead of fundamentals and are vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if sentiment turns. Positioning: Not going all in. I am holding a meaningful cash buffer, deploying selectively into quality names on weakness rather than committing aggressively at current valuations. In this environment, patience and risk control matter more than maximising exposure.