Lanceljx
Lanceljx
High intelligence does not necessarily correspond to high wisdom.
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The current silver weakness should be viewed primarily through the lens of flow mechanics, not a deterioration in fundamentals. Is the sell-off mechanical or structural? It is largely mechanical. The Bloomberg Commodity Index annual rebalancing forces passive funds to reduce silver exposure after its strong prior-year performance. The estimated USD 7.7 billion of selling flagged by TD Securities represents mandated portfolio adjustment, not discretionary bearish positioning. Such flows are price-insensitive and time-bound, typically concentrated within the rebalance window. There is little evidence of a structural demand breakdown. Industrial demand tied to electrification, solar, and AI-related power infrastructure remains intact, while mine supply growth is constrained. Role of inventori
avatarLanceljx
2025-01-31
1. Clearing the Trash: Investment Pitfalls in 2024 i. Overconfidence in speculative assets. ii. Neglecting diversification. 2. Assets Investors Should Avoid in 2025: i. Overleveraged companies or industries vulnerable to economic downturns. ii. Speculative investments without clear fundamentals or realistic growth prospects. iii. Companies or sectors with declining demand or excessive regulation risks. 3. Investment Plan for 2025 Core Investment Strategies: i. Diversification: Building a balanced portfolio across asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and real estate, to mitigate risks. ii. Low-cost broad market index funds iii. Fixed-income assets: Allocating funds to bonds or treasury securities for stability in a high-interest-rate environment. 4. Emerging Opportunities for 2025: AI an
avatarLanceljx
2025-10-29
Owning NVDA can help you grow wealth, but it’s not a guaranteed path to becoming a millionaire. NVIDIA dominates AI and chips, with strong revenue and earnings growth, plus bullish analyst targets—but much of that optimism is already priced in. High valuation, export risks, and market volatility mean overexposure is risky. The smarter route is to include NVDA as part of a diversified portfolio—say 10–20%—while investing consistently in broader assets like ETFs or index funds. Becoming a millionaire depends on your savings rate, time horizon, and risk control, not a single stock. In short: NVDA can accelerate wealth, but discipline and diversification build it sustainably.
avatarLanceljx
2025-10-26
You’ve raised an important question — one many investors are asking now: if tech’s leadership is cooling, could “old-giant” sectors really resume the mantle? Below I’ll provide a reasoned, professional take in three parts: what supports a rotation to traditional industries, when that might be a temporary rally versus a broader shift, and which traditional sectors may have the most upside potential this year. --- 1. Is this merely a temporary rally or the start of a broader shift back to classic winners? Support for a broader shift The theory of “sector rotation” says that as the economy (and market) passes through different phases, capital tends to shift from sectors that have run hard into those that were out of favour.  Recent flows and headlines appear consistent with a rotation aw
avatarLanceljx
2025-10-02
NVIDIA’s current momentum certainly supports a bullish case toward the $200 mark, though a few key factors deserve consideration. --- 🔹 Bullish Arguments 1. AI Infrastructure Dominance: NVIDIA remains the backbone of AI computing. With Huang emphasizing inference as the next growth engine, the company is poised to capture sustained demand from cloud providers (e.g., Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft) and emerging AI players. 2. Ecosystem Expansion: Partnerships such as CoreWeave’s $14.2B deal with Meta validate NVIDIA’s platform as indispensable in hyperscale AI deployment. The company’s Blackwell architecture and upcoming GB200/GB300 systems may drive another revenue inflection. 3. Technical Strength: The stock’s four-session winning streak signals strong institutional accumulation. If it holds abo
The pullback across storage names appears to be predominantly profit-taking, not a deterioration in the AI memory thesis. Profit-taking or sentiment shift? This move has the hallmarks of positioning and valuation reset, rather than a change in fundamentals. After a sharp rally, storage stocks had become crowded trades, vulnerable to short-term de-risking once momentum slowed. The absence of negative guidance, order cancellations, or pricing deterioration argues against a true sentiment reversal. The reaffirmation from BofA Securities on SanDisk, despite the drawdown, reinforces this view. Analysts are clearly distinguishing between near-term volatility and structural AI-driven demand. AI memory demand remains intact The core drivers have not changed: AI workloads are increasingly memory-in
avatarLanceljx
2025-12-11
My stance Silver’s breakout is technically impressive and fundamentally supported by the shift in real-rate expectations, yet its volatility profile argues for disciplined entry rather than chasing momentum. Why silver is outperforming gold Silver benefits from a dual identity: part monetary metal, part industrial commodity. As markets lock in a Fed easing path, real yields soften and the monetary bid rises. At the same time, renewed optimism around global manufacturing, solar demand and AI-related electronics boosts the industrial side. Gold is consolidating because positioning is already heavy, while silver had more room to expand. Breakout dynamics The surge above the previous record signals a strong trend, with ETF flows moving into SLV and leveraged vehicles like AGQ. Still, silver’s
avatarLanceljx
2025-09-25
If I were as wealthy as Ng, spending S$20,000 on a high-value networking dinner would depend on its strategic return. If the dinner gave access to decision-makers, policy shapers, or industry leaders that could unlock opportunities worth many times the cost, it could be justified as an investment rather than mere indulgence. However, I would still be cautious—relationships built on transactional dinners are often fragile. With S$18,900 personally, I would prefer diversified uses: allocate a portion to investments (equities, bonds, or REITs), reserve some for professional development or business building (courses, software, networking events with more sustainable ROI), and dedicate a part to meaningful experiences or charitable impact. The balance between personal growth, financial compoun
avatarLanceljx
2025-10-02
Tesla’s recent surge to $455.55 and a $1.5 trillion market cap underscores renewed investor enthusiasm — but the next leg toward $500 hinges largely on delivery momentum and earnings confirmation. --- 🚘 1. Can Tesla climb to $500? Technically, the setup is favourable. The stock has broken out of its multi-month consolidation, supported by robust volume inflows and positive sentiment ahead of deliveries. If results meet or exceed expectations, the next psychological milestone at $500 could come into play. However, a few headwinds warrant caution: Temporary Demand Pull-Forward: The $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit expiry likely front-loaded demand, inflating Q3 deliveries. This may leave a vacuum in Q4, challenging sustained growth. Margin Compression Risks: While delivery numbers may impress, inve
avatarLanceljx
2025-09-30
$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$  Your summary of Marks’s view is essentially correct: he’s warning that valuations are elevated, but he doesn’t (yet) believe we’re in full-blown “irrational exuberance.” Rather, he counsels a more cautious stance — what he calls “Level 5 defense” — i.e. reduce aggressive exposure, rotate toward defensive assets, tighten risk controls. That’s a sensible posture in my view: it’s a midpoint between outright alarm and complacency. Below are my reflections on his stance, some observations on current valuations (especially of the Magnificent 7 and the S&P 500), and how I would (and do) position a portfolio in this environment. --- Opinion on Marks’s view & the valuation backdrop Strengths of his approach 1. Avoid

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