Mickey082024
Mickey082024
Value investor and Long Terms
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Royal Caribbean Stock Revisited: From Undervalued to Overheated?

$Royal Caribbean Cruises(RCL)$ Alright, so I recorded a article on Royal Caribbean Cruise Line back on April 10th, 2025. At the time, the stock was trading around $190 per share, and I rated it as a buy. It was one of those setups where there was a clear catalyst—an opportunity I highlighted, primarily around the company’s effort to reduce its long-term debt, lower interest expenses, and increase profitability. Since then, Royal Caribbean’s stock has rallied, jumping from $190 to about $233 per share as of this recording. So, if you acted on that recommendation and made some money—congratulations! I'm always glad when my analysis helps generate profits for viewers. In this article, I’m going to revisit Royal Caribbean, assess the long-term risks, u
Royal Caribbean Stock Revisited: From Undervalued to Overheated?

Is UnitedHealth (UNH) a Buy, Hold, or Sell? Breaking Down the Collapse

UnitedHealth Group (UNH), once a pillar of stability and growth in the healthcare sector, has seen its stock price plunge nearly 50% in just six months, erasing billions in market cap and rattling investor confidence. From its 52-week high of $630.73, the stock has nosedived to around $311, prompting many to ask: Is this stock broken—or is the company itself fundamentally broken? In this breakdown, we'll cover what’s gone wrong, why sentiment is this bad, and whether now could actually be the best time in over a decade to consider buying. Why UNH Stock Is Getting Crushed A perfect storm of negative catalysts has slammed UnitedHealth. Let’s walk through them: 1. The Largest Healthcare Data Breach in U.S. History It began with a cyberattack on UnitedHealth’s tech unit (Change Healthcare), fi
Is UnitedHealth (UNH) a Buy, Hold, or Sell? Breaking Down the Collapse
avatarMickey082024
05-14 09:11

Humana (HUM): Deep Value or Classic Value Trap?

$Humana(HUM)$ Humana (NYSE: HUM) has been crushed. The stock dropped another ~7.2% today and now trades around $230—roughly 50% off its all-time highs. For long-term investors, this kind of drawdown presents an intriguing puzzle: is this the moment to start accumulating shares in a quality company undergoing a temporary reset? Or is Humana a classic value trap with much further to fall? I’ve been watching this story unfold closely for months, and in this article, I’ll break down the current situation, the structural risks, the valuation reset, and the indicators I’m watching before deciding to step in. The Setup: What’s Behind Humana’s Massive Decline? At a high level, Humana’s business is built around Medicare Advantage, a private alternative to t
Humana (HUM): Deep Value or Classic Value Trap?
avatarMickey082024
05-14 01:40

Revisiting Zeta Global: Is the Stock a Buy After a 35% Drop?

$Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$ Zeta is trading around $14.35, down more than 35% from my original recommendation. It’s been a tough ride for shareholders. In this article, I’ll revisit the company, reassess the risks, update my discounted cash flow valuation, and determine whether Zeta remains a buy—or if investors should consider moving on. Earning Overview Zeta Global Holdings (NYSE: ZETA) reported earnings of $0.07 per share for the most recent quarter, falling short of the Consensus Estimate of $0.12. This marks a significant miss of 41.67%, despite being an improvement from the $0.01 per share reported in the same quarter a year ago. All figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This is not the first earnings miss for the cloud-based
Revisiting Zeta Global: Is the Stock a Buy After a 35% Drop?
avatarMickey082024
05-13 13:51

DraftKings Stock: Why It Remains As Top Picks for 2025 After a Mixed Earnings Report

$DraftKings Inc.(DKNG)$ DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG), the mobile gaming and sports betting platform, recently reported its quarterly earnings. The results were mixed—there were several encouraging trends but also a few cautionary signs that investors should take note of. In this article, I’ll break down the key takeaways from the earnings release, examine how DraftKings is positioning itself in the current economic environment, and update my valuation and investment recommendation for the stock. I’ll also explain why I continue to rate DraftKings as one of the top nine stocks to buy in 2025. Earning Overview DKNG reported earnings of $0.12 per share for the latest quarter, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.18. Despite the miss, this
DraftKings Stock: Why It Remains As Top Picks for 2025 After a Mixed Earnings Report
avatarMickey082024
05-13 02:38

Is NU Holdings Undervalued? An In-Depth Analysis of Risks and Valuation

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ NU Holdings is a financial services company based in Latin America, primarily known for offering digital banking services and fintech solutions. The company has been gaining traction as a leader in the region’s rapidly expanding digital finance sector, leveraging technology to provide a range of services that were traditionally controlled by traditional banks. Here's a fundamental overview of NU Holdings, focusing on its business model, financial performance, competitive advantages, and risks. It has been attracting considerable interest from investors in recent times. This interest is driven by the company's strong growth trajectory amidst a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty in the region. In this analysis, I will evaluat
Is NU Holdings Undervalued? An In-Depth Analysis of Risks and Valuation
avatarMickey082024
05-13 01:22

Is StoneCo Stock a Buy? Evaluating Risks and Valuation

$StoneCo(STNE)$ StoneCo is a compelling financial services company that operates primarily in Latin America. In this article, I’m going to evaluate the company’s key risks and then analyze its valuation to determine whether the stock is a buy—even after accounting for the major risks I’ll highlight. I'll assess valuation using a couple of approaches, including my proprietary discounted cash flow (DCF) model, which will give us a clearer picture of what I believe the business is worth today. Based on that, I’ll share whether I think the stock is currently a buy, hold, or sell. Q4 2024 Earnings Overview Q4 2024 Results: StoneCo reported an adjusted net income of R$497.1 million, marking a 54.4% increase year-over-year. Adjusted basic EPS stood at R$
Is StoneCo Stock a Buy? Evaluating Risks and Valuation

The Currency Shock No One’s Ready For

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Global Currencies in Turmoil: U.S. Trade Policy Triggers Dollar Exodus In yet another week of geopolitical whiplash, U.S. trade policy continues to sow chaos in global markets. The Trump administration’s scattershot approach — flip-flopping between punishing China, negotiating with Beijing, and threatening further tariffs — has ignited fresh volatility in currencies and upended confidence in the U.S. dollar. What began as a tariff dispute has now escalated into a global monetary reshuffling. Investors, exporters, and foreign governments are ditching dollar assets en masse, sparking a sharp rally in Asian currencies. The dollar has fallen more than 10% since Trump took office, with an especially violent move in April after China
The Currency Shock No One’s Ready For

Reddit's Q1 2025 Earnings: Strong Growth, Stronger Conviction

$Reddit(RDDT)$ Reddit released its Q1 2025 financial results after the market closed on Thursday, May 1st—and the stock immediately soared in after-hours trading. As someone who’s had Reddit rated as a Buy throughout 2025, this surge comes as no surprise. The company is firing on all cylinders, and this quarter’s performance confirms the strength of both its business model and its long-term growth trajectory. So far this year, I’ve rated Meta Platforms, Reddit, and Snap as buys. Two of the three—Meta and Reddit—delivered excellent earnings reports and were rewarded with stock price gains. Snap, on the other hand, reported disappointing results, and its stock declined accordingly. While I’ve maintained a buy rating on all three based on long-term f
Reddit's Q1 2025 Earnings: Strong Growth, Stronger Conviction

Robinhood Stock: Is It Time to Take Profits or Hold On?

$Robinhood(HOOD)$ Robinhood’s stock has surged by an impressive 28% in 2025 so far. As someone who has recommended Robinhood as a buy throughout the year, I’m naturally happy with this performance. But here’s the question that all investors should be asking themselves right now: Is it time to take profits on Robinhood stock? In this article, I will dive into two significant risks that Robinhood faces in its business operations, reevaluate its valuation, and ultimately give an updated recommendation on whether it’s time to buy, hold, or sell Robinhood stock in the face of current market volatility. I will also walk you through my proprietary discounted cash flow (DCF) model for Robinhood and explore the company’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) rat
Robinhood Stock: Is It Time to Take Profits or Hold On?

China Cuts Away from the Dollar: The Trade War Backfires

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Economic Warning Signs in Q1 2025 The global economic tides are shifting, and the first quarter of 2025 has delivered a clear message: the United States’ trade war has backfired. With U.S. GDP contracting by 0.3%, the data confirms what many feared — an economic downturn is unfolding even before the full brunt of retaliatory measures has taken effect. In stark contrast to the 2.4% growth recorded in Q1 2024, the American economy is now showing signs of systemic weakness, weighed down by a combination of declining trade, shrinking federal spending, and most notably, a weakening dollar. From Tariffs to Global Repercussions When former President Trump init
China Cuts Away from the Dollar: The Trade War Backfires

Super Micro Computer’s Disappointing Earnings Report: Analyzing the Stock's Decline and My Updated Recommendation

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ Super Micro Computer’s recent preliminary quarterly results came as a major disappointment to stock market investors. The company's stock plunged by over 16% in after-market trading following the release of their earnings report. This sharp drop has left many—including myself—disappointed, as I had recently upgraded Super Micro stock to a borderline buy. A borderline buy is defined as a recommendation that sits between a hold and a buy, leaning closer to a buy. Naturally, I'm disheartened by the decline, especially given the optimism I had around this stock in the context of its strong market positioning and growth potential. With this in mind, I’m taking another look at Super Micro following these results to under
Super Micro Computer’s Disappointing Earnings Report: Analyzing the Stock's Decline and My Updated Recommendation

Is CrowdStrike Stock a Buy? A Deep Dive into Risks, Valuation, and Market Positioning

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) has become one of the most well-known names in the cybersecurity space. With a reputation for innovation in endpoint protection and threat intelligence, the company has attracted strong investor attention. But is the stock worth buying today, or has it become too expensive relative to its risks? In this article, I’m going to walk you through a full investment analysis of CrowdStrike. I’ll break down the key risks the company is facing, then shift to valuation, where I’ll share both my proprietary discounted cash flow model and the forward P/E analysis. Finally, I’ll tie it all together with a clear verdict: Buy, Hold, or Sell. Let’s get started. Earnings Overview Revenue: CrowdStrike re
Is CrowdStrike Stock a Buy? A Deep Dive into Risks, Valuation, and Market Positioning

Merck Q1 2025 Earnings Overview: A Closer Look at Performance, Strategy, and Outlook

$Merck(MRK)$ Merck & Co. delivered a mixed set of results for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting both the strength of its blockbuster therapies and the challenges of a shifting global landscape. Revenue growth remained modest, impacted by foreign exchange headwinds and soft demand in certain markets, while earnings came in stronger than expected, aided by cost discipline and solid contributions from key products like Keytruda. Despite facing pressure from international tariffs and weaker vaccine sales, Merck maintained its full-year revenue guidance and continues to invest aggressively in its pipeline and manufacturing infrastructure to sustain long-term growth. Earning Overview Total Revenue came in at $15.5 billion, representing a 2% decli
Merck Q1 2025 Earnings Overview: A Closer Look at Performance, Strategy, and Outlook

Is Paycom Software Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell? A Deep Dive into Risks and Valuation

$Paycom(PAYC)$ In this article, I’ll take a closer look at Paycom Software (NYSE: PAYC)—a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) software—by evaluating three of the most pressing risks the company faces today. I’ll also walk through its valuation using my proprietary discounted cash flow (DCF) model to estimate intrinsic value and then analyze how the stock measures up based on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) basis. By the end of this breakdown, I’ll share whether I believe Paycom is currently a buy, hold, or sell, based on the company’s risk profile, growth potential, and valuation at today’s market prices. Fundamental Analysis Paycom Software is a leading provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions, helping
Is Paycom Software Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell? A Deep Dive into Risks and Valuation

The Oracle of Omaha Last Dance Warning

$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett, center, looks at products produced by Precision Castparts as he tours the exhibit floor before presiding over the annual shareholders meeting April 30, 2016, in Omaha, Nebraska. Warren Buffett's retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of 2025 marks the close of one of the most legendary chapters in investment history. At 94 years old, Buffett confirmed at the annual shareholder meeting in Omaha that Greg Abel, vice chairman overseeing non-insurance operations, will succeed him. Buffett noted that "the time has arrived" for Abel to take over, although he will remain available in an advisory capacity. The final meeting carried a deeply nostalgic tone. Shareho
The Oracle of Omaha Last Dance Warning

Snap Inc. Q1 2025 Earnings: Disappointing Results, But a Valuation Too Good to Ignore

$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ Snap Inc. reported its quarterly financial results after the U.S. markets closed on April 29th, 2025 — and it wasn’t the report bulls were hoping for. Despite some encouraging user growth headlines, the underlying metrics left investors rattled, sending the stock tumbling more than 15% in after-hours trading. As someone who has rated Snap as a “buy” throughout 2025, I’ll be candid — this report was frustrating. But short-term market reactions don’t always reflect long-term value. In this article, I’ll break down Snap’s Q1 results, explore what triggered the market’s sharp response, and share whether I view this drop as a buying opportunity or a red flag. I’ll also walk through my updated discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, asses
Snap Inc. Q1 2025 Earnings: Disappointing Results, But a Valuation Too Good to Ignore

PepsiCo Plunge: Dividend King or Value Trap?

$Pepsi(PEP)$ A Tough Week for PepsiCo We’ve just wrapped up a relatively strong week in the markets. In fact, we saw green nearly across the board, and the Magnificent Seven rebounded quite strongly. But today, our spotlight is on PepsiCo—a stock that stood out for the wrong reasons, closing the week down nearly 7%. It's worth noting that this drop followed their earnings report, which was released just before Thursday’s market open. 2025 YTD: Dramatic Underperformance Looking at 2025 year-to-date, while much of the broader market is struggling to recover and edge back into the green, PepsiCo is down more than 12%. In comparison, its peers have done considerably better—Coca-Cola is up 16%, Keurig Dr Pepper has gained 7%, and Monster Beverage is up
PepsiCo Plunge: Dividend King or Value Trap?

The U.S. Borrowing Crisis and the Economic War with China

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ While trade headlines have quieted, the economic battle between the United States and China is intensifying behind the scenes. At the center of this quiet storm is America’s growing reliance on debt—and the cracks forming in its bond market. Trump’s Strategy: Tariffs and Tax Cuts Former President Donald Trump’s strategy to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. relied on two major levers: tariffs and corporate tax cuts. The goal was simple—make it more expensive to produce abroad, and more profitable to build at home. In 2017, Trump slashed the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Now, a n
The U.S. Borrowing Crisis and the Economic War with China

FedEx Stock: Analyzing the Risks and Potential Opportunities in a Changing Market

$FedEx(FDX)$ In recent years, stock markets have largely been on an upward trajectory, providing investors with consistent growth and positive returns. From 2023 through early 2025, global markets appeared to defy the odds, continuing their march higher with little interruption. However, with the introduction of new tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions, the stock market landscape is undergoing a significant shift. In this uncertain environment, risk analysis has become a crucial part of evaluating potential investments. For companies like FedEx, understanding the risks they face is essential for investors looking to navigate these changes. FedEx, a global leader in logistics and transportation, is not immune to the challenges posed by the c
FedEx Stock: Analyzing the Risks and Potential Opportunities in a Changing Market

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