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Winner1224578
09-30 15:53
$永康控股 (02523)$
Winner1224578
09-16
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Winner1224578
08-14
$寶蓋新材(08090)$
Winner1224578
08-13
$永康控股 (02523)$
Winner1224578
08-11
$A GX恆指備兌(03419)$
Winner1224578
08-11
$永康控股 (02523)$
Winner1224578
08-02
$A GX恆指備兌(03419)$
Winner1224578
07-09
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Winner1224578
06-14
[呆住]
@ValueEdge:Day 78｜利率環境變了：當「降息」變成「加息」，你的組合該怎麼調？
Winner1224578
08-05
$寶蓋新材(08090)$
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good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a267f964348875d27164e07224674ea6","width":"1206","height":"2553"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/593057693008344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":592692779065784,"gmtCreate":1785723834777,"gmtModify":1785723836123,"author":{"id":"4213809689208512","authorId":"4213809689208512","name":"Winner1224578","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2623232493d547d9ab9dada1887d231","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4213809689208512","authorIdStr":"4213809689208512"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/592692779065784","repostId":"591848708195760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":591848708195760,"gmtCreate":1785491029870,"gmtModify":1788146277663,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"最新期貨課堂實錄：聯儲局今次會議會唔會引爆 AI 泡沫？","htmlText":"星期四晚我同大家做咗一場直播，講嘅係<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/4166650\">聯儲局今次會議會唔會引爆 AI 泡沫</a>，以及我哋應該點部署。當晚圖表多、講得又快，未必人人跟得上，所以今次用文字帶大家再回顧一次——當時嘅重點、圖表，同每一個操作條件，我都盡量原原本本整理落嚟。 先講結論：7 月唔加息係符合預期嘅，但開會之前「利率不變」嘅概率只有 65.8%，而以往臨近會議通常都八成以上——即係話市場對呢次會議嘅預期好唔充分；會後主席講嘢又含糊，反而令 9 月加息嘅概率上升。技術上，美光、費城半導體 ETF、微軟呢幾條 AI 主線已經走出頭肩頂，仲陸續破位，VIX 又返到區間底部，我認為風險只係啱啱開始，短期應該以避險為主。如果你好肯定會加息，對應嘅做法就係做空歐元期貨（6E）。8 月係關鍵時間窗口，但呢一次好可能係階段性低點而唔係高點——前提係一定要先見到「加速」，即係月線跌幅 20% 以上，唔係就唔好去接飛刀。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指數主連 2609(ESmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/MESmain\">$微型SP500指數主連 2609(MESmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/MNQmain\">$微型NQ100指數主連 2609(MNQmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ1</a>","listText":"星期四晚我同大家做咗一場直播，講嘅係<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/4166650\">聯儲局今次會議會唔會引爆 AI 泡沫</a>，以及我哋應該點部署。當晚圖表多、講得又快，未必人人跟得上，所以今次用文字帶大家再回顧一次——當時嘅重點、圖表，同每一個操作條件，我都盡量原原本本整理落嚟。 先講結論：7 月唔加息係符合預期嘅，但開會之前「利率不變」嘅概率只有 65.8%，而以往臨近會議通常都八成以上——即係話市場對呢次會議嘅預期好唔充分；會後主席講嘢又含糊，反而令 9 月加息嘅概率上升。技術上，美光、費城半導體 ETF、微軟呢幾條 AI 主線已經走出頭肩頂，仲陸續破位，VIX 又返到區間底部，我認為風險只係啱啱開始，短期應該以避險為主。如果你好肯定會加息，對應嘅做法就係做空歐元期貨（6E）。8 月係關鍵時間窗口，但呢一次好可能係階段性低點而唔係高點——前提係一定要先見到「加速」，即係月線跌幅 20% 以上，唔係就唔好去接飛刀。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指數主連 2609(ESmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/MESmain\">$微型SP500指數主連 2609(MESmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/MNQmain\">$微型NQ100指數主連 2609(MNQmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ1</a>","text":"星期四晚我同大家做咗一場直播，講嘅係聯儲局今次會議會唔會引爆 AI 泡沫，以及我哋應該點部署。當晚圖表多、講得又快，未必人人跟得上，所以今次用文字帶大家再回顧一次——當時嘅重點、圖表，同每一個操作條件，我都盡量原原本本整理落嚟。 先講結論：7 月唔加息係符合預期嘅，但開會之前「利率不變」嘅概率只有 65.8%，而以往臨近會議通常都八成以上——即係話市場對呢次會議嘅預期好唔充分；會後主席講嘢又含糊，反而令 9 月加息嘅概率上升。技術上，美光、費城半導體 ETF、微軟呢幾條 AI 主線已經走出頭肩頂，仲陸續破位，VIX 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","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/575212535960656","repostId":"574262026158240","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":574262026158240,"gmtCreate":1781230771794,"gmtModify":1781259772109,"author":{"id":"4153463150614512","authorId":"4153463150614512","name":"ValueEdge","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99691b1cf29f632fc7dbccc1c3e505da","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4153463150614512","authorIdStr":"4153463150614512"},"themes":[],"title":"Day 78｜利率環境變了：當「降息」變成「加息」，你的組合該怎麼調？","htmlText":"一、2026 年利率的劇情反轉 年初。 市場預期： 2026 年降息 2–3 次。 經濟放緩。通脹回落。 現在（6 月）。 現實： Fed 維持 3.5%–3.75% 不變。 CPI 5 月：4.2%（加速上升，高於 4 月的 3.8%）*。 就業市場：依然強勁。 市場定價：加息概率 70%。降息概率接近零。 Reuters 經濟學家共識：全年不降息。 *數據來源：CNBC，2026 年 6 月 10 日 翻譯： 從「什麼時候降息」 變成了「會不會加息」。 完全反轉。 為什麼這件事跟你的投資有關？ 因為利率 直接影響你持有的每一隻股票的估值。 二、利率如何影響估值 一個簡單的邏輯鏈： 利率上升 → 無風險利率上升 → 你對股票的回報要求提高 → 同樣的 FCF，你願意付的價格更低 → 估值下降 → 股價承壓 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/553869045088936\">Day 40 </a>的框架： 回報率 = FCF Yield + Growth 如果無風險利率從 3.5% 升到 4.5% 你對股票的 FCF Yield 要求 也會相應提高。 之前你可能接受 4% 的 FCF Yield。 現在你可能需要 5%。 這意味著： 同一家公司 你願意付的價格 降低了約 20%。 公司沒變。 但你的要求變了。 因為你有了更好的替代選擇： 國債。 三、誰最受傷？ 受傷最大：高估值 + 無盈利的成長股 PE > 50x。 FCF 為負。 估值完全靠「未來增長」支撐。 利率上升 = 未來現金流的折現值下降。 成長越遠 → 折現影響越大。 2022 年就是這個劇本： 加息 → 成長股暴跌 40%–70%。","listText":"一、2026 年利率的劇情反轉 年初。 市場預期： 2026 年降息 2–3 次。 經濟放緩。通脹回落。 現在（6 月）。 現實： Fed 維持 3.5%–3.75% 不變。 CPI 5 月：4.2%（加速上升，高於 4 月的 3.8%）*。 就業市場：依然強勁。 市場定價：加息概率 70%。降息概率接近零。 Reuters 經濟學家共識：全年不降息。 *數據來源：CNBC，2026 年 6 月 10 日 翻譯： 從「什麼時候降息」 變成了「會不會加息」。 完全反轉。 為什麼這件事跟你的投資有關？ 因為利率 直接影響你持有的每一隻股票的估值。 二、利率如何影響估值 一個簡單的邏輯鏈： 利率上升 → 無風險利率上升 → 你對股票的回報要求提高 → 同樣的 FCF，你願意付的價格更低 → 估值下降 → 股價承壓 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/553869045088936\">Day 40 </a>的框架： 回報率 = FCF Yield + Growth 如果無風險利率從 3.5% 升到 4.5% 你對股票的 FCF Yield 要求 也會相應提高。 之前你可能接受 4% 的 FCF Yield。 現在你可能需要 5%。 這意味著： 同一家公司 你願意付的價格 降低了約 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","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/575212535960656","repostId":"574262026158240","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":574262026158240,"gmtCreate":1781230771794,"gmtModify":1781259772109,"author":{"id":"4153463150614512","authorId":"4153463150614512","name":"ValueEdge","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99691b1cf29f632fc7dbccc1c3e505da","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4153463150614512","idStr":"4153463150614512"},"themes":[],"title":"Day 78｜利率環境變了：當「降息」變成「加息」，你的組合該怎麼調？","htmlText":"一、2026 年利率的劇情反轉 年初。 市場預期： 2026 年降息 2–3 次。 經濟放緩。通脹回落。 現在（6 月）。 現實： Fed 維持 3.5%–3.75% 不變。 CPI 5 月：4.2%（加速上升，高於 4 月的 3.8%）*。 就業市場：依然強勁。 市場定價：加息概率 70%。降息概率接近零。 Reuters 經濟學家共識：全年不降息。 *數據來源：CNBC，2026 年 6 月 10 日 翻譯： 從「什麼時候降息」 變成了「會不會加息」。 完全反轉。 為什麼這件事跟你的投資有關？ 因為利率 直接影響你持有的每一隻股票的估值。 二、利率如何影響估值 一個簡單的邏輯鏈： 利率上升 → 無風險利率上升 → 你對股票的回報要求提高 → 同樣的 FCF，你願意付的價格更低 → 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20%。 公司沒變。 但你的要求變了。 因為你有了更好的替代選擇： 國債。 三、誰最受傷？ 受傷最大：高估值 + 無盈利的成長股 PE > 50x。 FCF 為負。 估值完全靠「未來增長」支撐。 利率上升 = 未來現金流的折現值下降。 成長越遠 → 折現影響越大。 2022 年就是這個劇本： 加息 → 成長股暴跌 40%–70%。","text":"一、2026 年利率的劇情反轉 年初。 市場預期： 2026 年降息 2–3 次。 經濟放緩。通脹回落。 現在（6 月）。 現實： Fed 維持 3.5%–3.75% 不變。 CPI 5 月：4.2%（加速上升，高於 4 月的 3.8%）*。 就業市場：依然強勁。 市場定價：加息概率 70%。降息概率接近零。 Reuters 經濟學家共識：全年不降息。 *數據來源：CNBC，2026 年 6 月 10 日 翻譯： 從「什麼時候降息」 變成了「會不會加息」。 完全反轉。 為什麼這件事跟你的投資有關？ 因為利率 直接影響你持有的每一隻股票的估值。 二、利率如何影響估值 一個簡單的邏輯鏈： 利率上升 → 無風險利率上升 → 你對股票的回報要求提高 → 同樣的 FCF，你願意付的價格更低 → 估值下降 → 股價承壓 Day 40 的框架： 回報率 = FCF Yield + Growth 如果無風險利率從 3.5% 升到 4.5% 你對股票的 FCF Yield 要求 也會相應提高。 之前你可能接受 4% 的 FCF Yield。 現在你可能需要 5%。 這意味著： 同一家公司 你願意付的價格 降低了約 20%。 公司沒變。 但你的要求變了。 因為你有了更好的替代選擇： 國債。 三、誰最受傷？ 受傷最大：高估值 + 無盈利的成長股 PE > 50x。 FCF 為負。 估值完全靠「未來增長」支撐。 利率上升 = 未來現金流的折現值下降。 成長越遠 → 折現影響越大。 2022 年就是這個劇本： 加息 → 成長股暴跌 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