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08-03
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@Ivan_Gan:最新期貨課堂實錄:聯儲局今次會議會唔會引爆 AI 泡沫?
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08-03
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06-14
[呆住]
@ValueEdge:Day 78|利率環境變了:當「降息」變成「加息」,你的組合該怎麼調?
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a267f964348875d27164e07224674ea6","width":"1206","height":"2553"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/593057693008344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":592692779065784,"gmtCreate":1785723834777,"gmtModify":1785723836123,"author":{"id":"4213809689208512","authorId":"4213809689208512","name":"Winner1224578","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2623232493d547d9ab9dada1887d231","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4213809689208512","idStr":"4213809689208512"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/592692779065784","repostId":"591848708195760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":591848708195760,"gmtCreate":1785491029870,"gmtModify":1788146277663,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667668727377","idStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"最新期貨課堂實錄:聯儲局今次會議會唔會引爆 AI 泡沫?","htmlText":"星期四晚我同大家做咗一場直播,講嘅係<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/4166650\">聯儲局今次會議會唔會引爆 AI 泡沫</a>,以及我哋應該點部署。當晚圖表多、講得又快,未必人人跟得上,所以今次用文字帶大家再回顧一次——當時嘅重點、圖表,同每一個操作條件,我都盡量原原本本整理落嚟。 先講結論:7 月唔加息係符合預期嘅,但開會之前「利率不變」嘅概率只有 65.8%,而以往臨近會議通常都八成以上——即係話市場對呢次會議嘅預期好唔充分;會後主席講嘢又含糊,反而令 9 月加息嘅概率上升。技術上,美光、費城半導體 ETF、微軟呢幾條 AI 主線已經走出頭肩頂,仲陸續破位,VIX 又返到區間底部,我認為風險只係啱啱開始,短期應該以避險為主。如果你好肯定會加息,對應嘅做法就係做空歐元期貨(6E)。8 月係關鍵時間窗口,但呢一次好可能係階段性低點而唔係高點——前提係一定要先見到「加速」,即係月線跌幅 20% 以上,唔係就唔好去接飛刀。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指數主連 2609(ESmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/MESmain\">$微型SP500指數主連 2609(MESmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/MNQmain\">$微型NQ100指數主連 2609(MNQmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ1</a>","listText":"星期四晚我同大家做咗一場直播,講嘅係<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/4166650\">聯儲局今次會議會唔會引爆 AI 泡沫</a>,以及我哋應該點部署。當晚圖表多、講得又快,未必人人跟得上,所以今次用文字帶大家再回顧一次——當時嘅重點、圖表,同每一個操作條件,我都盡量原原本本整理落嚟。 先講結論:7 月唔加息係符合預期嘅,但開會之前「利率不變」嘅概率只有 65.8%,而以往臨近會議通常都八成以上——即係話市場對呢次會議嘅預期好唔充分;會後主席講嘢又含糊,反而令 9 月加息嘅概率上升。技術上,美光、費城半導體 ETF、微軟呢幾條 AI 主線已經走出頭肩頂,仲陸續破位,VIX 又返到區間底部,我認為風險只係啱啱開始,短期應該以避險為主。如果你好肯定會加息,對應嘅做法就係做空歐元期貨(6E)。8 月係關鍵時間窗口,但呢一次好可能係階段性低點而唔係高點——前提係一定要先見到「加速」,即係月線跌幅 20% 以上,唔係就唔好去接飛刀。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指數主連 2609(ESmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/MESmain\">$微型SP500指數主連 2609(MESmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/MNQmain\">$微型NQ100指數主連 2609(MNQmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ1</a>","text":"星期四晚我同大家做咗一場直播,講嘅係聯儲局今次會議會唔會引爆 AI 泡沫,以及我哋應該點部署。當晚圖表多、講得又快,未必人人跟得上,所以今次用文字帶大家再回顧一次——當時嘅重點、圖表,同每一個操作條件,我都盡量原原本本整理落嚟。 先講結論:7 月唔加息係符合預期嘅,但開會之前「利率不變」嘅概率只有 65.8%,而以往臨近會議通常都八成以上——即係話市場對呢次會議嘅預期好唔充分;會後主席講嘢又含糊,反而令 9 月加息嘅概率上升。技術上,美光、費城半導體 ETF、微軟呢幾條 AI 主線已經走出頭肩頂,仲陸續破位,VIX 又返到區間底部,我認為風險只係啱啱開始,短期應該以避險為主。如果你好肯定會加息,對應嘅做法就係做空歐元期貨(6E)。8 月係關鍵時間窗口,但呢一次好可能係階段性低點而唔係高點——前提係一定要先見到「加速」,即係月線跌幅 20% 以上,唔係就唔好去接飛刀。 $SP500指數主連 2609(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指數主連 2609(MESmain)$ $微型NQ100指數主連 2609(MNQmain)$ 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","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/575212535960656","repostId":"574262026158240","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":574262026158240,"gmtCreate":1781230771794,"gmtModify":1781259772109,"author":{"id":"4153463150614512","authorId":"4153463150614512","name":"ValueEdge","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99691b1cf29f632fc7dbccc1c3e505da","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4153463150614512","idStr":"4153463150614512"},"themes":[],"title":"Day 78|利率環境變了:當「降息」變成「加息」,你的組合該怎麼調?","htmlText":"一、2026 年利率的劇情反轉 年初。 市場預期: 2026 年降息 2–3 次。 經濟放緩。通脹回落。 現在(6 月)。 現實: Fed 維持 3.5%–3.75% 不變。 CPI 5 月:4.2%(加速上升,高於 4 月的 3.8%)*。 就業市場:依然強勁。 市場定價:加息概率 70%。降息概率接近零。 Reuters 經濟學家共識:全年不降息。 *數據來源:CNBC,2026 年 6 月 10 日 翻譯: 從「什麼時候降息」 變成了「會不會加息」。 完全反轉。 為什麼這件事跟你的投資有關? 因為利率 直接影響你持有的每一隻股票的估值。 二、利率如何影響估值 一個簡單的邏輯鏈: 利率上升 → 無風險利率上升 → 你對股票的回報要求提高 → 同樣的 FCF,你願意付的價格更低 → 估值下降 → 股價承壓 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/553869045088936\">Day 40 </a>的框架: 回報率 = FCF Yield + Growth 如果無風險利率從 3.5% 升到 4.5% 你對股票的 FCF Yield 要求 也會相應提高。 之前你可能接受 4% 的 FCF Yield。 現在你可能需要 5%。 這意味著: 同一家公司 你願意付的價格 降低了約 20%。 公司沒變。 但你的要求變了。 因為你有了更好的替代選擇: 國債。 三、誰最受傷? 受傷最大:高估值 + 無盈利的成長股 PE > 50x。 FCF 為負。 估值完全靠「未來增長」支撐。 利率上升 = 未來現金流的折現值下降。 成長越遠 → 折現影響越大。 2022 年就是這個劇本: 加息 → 成長股暴跌 40%–70%。","listText":"一、2026 年利率的劇情反轉 年初。 市場預期: 2026 年降息 2–3 次。 經濟放緩。通脹回落。 現在(6 月)。 現實: Fed 維持 3.5%–3.75% 不變。 CPI 5 月:4.2%(加速上升,高於 4 月的 3.8%)*。 就業市場:依然強勁。 市場定價:加息概率 70%。降息概率接近零。 Reuters 經濟學家共識:全年不降息。 *數據來源:CNBC,2026 年 6 月 10 日 翻譯: 從「什麼時候降息」 變成了「會不會加息」。 完全反轉。 為什麼這件事跟你的投資有關? 因為利率 直接影響你持有的每一隻股票的估值。 二、利率如何影響估值 一個簡單的邏輯鏈: 利率上升 → 無風險利率上升 → 你對股票的回報要求提高 → 同樣的 FCF,你願意付的價格更低 → 估值下降 → 股價承壓 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/553869045088936\">Day 40 </a>的框架: 回報率 = FCF Yield + Growth 如果無風險利率從 3.5% 升到 4.5% 你對股票的 FCF Yield 要求 也會相應提高。 之前你可能接受 4% 的 FCF Yield。 現在你可能需要 5%。 這意味著: 同一家公司 你願意付的價格 降低了約 20%。 公司沒變。 但你的要求變了。 因為你有了更好的替代選擇: 國債。 三、誰最受傷? 受傷最大:高估值 + 無盈利的成長股 PE > 50x。 FCF 為負。 估值完全靠「未來增長」支撐。 利率上升 = 未來現金流的折現值下降。 成長越遠 → 折現影響越大。 2022 年就是這個劇本: 加息 → 成長股暴跌 40%–70%。","text":"一、2026 年利率的劇情反轉 年初。 市場預期: 2026 年降息 2–3 次。 經濟放緩。通脹回落。 現在(6 月)。 現實: Fed 維持 3.5%–3.75% 不變。 CPI 5 月:4.2%(加速上升,高於 4 月的 3.8%)*。 就業市場:依然強勁。 市場定價:加息概率 70%。降息概率接近零。 Reuters 經濟學家共識:全年不降息。 *數據來源:CNBC,2026 年 6 月 10 日 翻譯: 從「什麼時候降息」 變成了「會不會加息」。 完全反轉。 為什麼這件事跟你的投資有關? 因為利率 直接影響你持有的每一隻股票的估值。 二、利率如何影響估值 一個簡單的邏輯鏈: 利率上升 → 無風險利率上升 → 你對股票的回報要求提高 → 同樣的 FCF,你願意付的價格更低 → 估值下降 → 股價承壓 Day 40 的框架: 回報率 = FCF Yield + Growth 如果無風險利率從 3.5% 升到 4.5% 你對股票的 FCF Yield 要求 也會相應提高。 之前你可能接受 4% 的 FCF Yield。 現在你可能需要 5%。 這意味著: 同一家公司 你願意付的價格 降低了約 20%。 公司沒變。 但你的要求變了。 因為你有了更好的替代選擇: 國債。 三、誰最受傷? 受傷最大:高估值 + 無盈利的成長股 PE > 50x。 FCF 為負。 估值完全靠「未來增長」支撐。 利率上升 = 未來現金流的折現值下降。 成長越遠 → 折現影響越大。 2022 年就是這個劇本: 加息 → 成長股暴跌 40%–70%。","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/65b0f9d96e72ece369e0e4cd46882ed3","width":"640","height":"442"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/574262026158240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":608329097830496,"gmtCreate":1789532330422,"gmtModify":1789532333236,"author":{"id":"4213809689208512","authorId":"4213809689208512","name":"Winner1224578","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2623232493d547d9ab9dada1887d231","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4213809689208512","authorIdStr":"4213809689208512"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af9b0eea378eb34095088a28962e3e70","width":"1206","height":"2139"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/608329097830496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":596609058157696,"gmtCreate":1786683195566,"gmtModify":1786683198547,"author":{"id":"4213809689208512","authorId":"4213809689208512","name":"Winner1224578","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2623232493d547d9ab9dada1887d231","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4213809689208512","authorIdStr":"4213809689208512"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03952\">$來福諧波(03952)$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03952\">$來福諧波(03952)$</a> ","text":"$來福諧波(03952)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cce4d28da63e290ffa1169ca9a963821","width":"1206","height":"2124"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/583674081931400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":575212535960656,"gmtCreate":1781441011340,"gmtModify":1781445288345,"author":{"id":"4213809689208512","authorId":"4213809689208512","name":"Winner1224578","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2623232493d547d9ab9dada1887d231","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4213809689208512","authorIdStr":"4213809689208512"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[呆住] ","listText":"[呆住] ","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/575212535960656","repostId":"574262026158240","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":574262026158240,"gmtCreate":1781230771794,"gmtModify":1781259772109,"author":{"id":"4153463150614512","authorId":"4153463150614512","name":"ValueEdge","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99691b1cf29f632fc7dbccc1c3e505da","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4153463150614512","authorIdStr":"4153463150614512"},"themes":[],"title":"Day 78|利率環境變了:當「降息」變成「加息」,你的組合該怎麼調?","htmlText":"一、2026 年利率的劇情反轉 年初。 市場預期: 2026 年降息 2–3 次。 經濟放緩。通脹回落。 現在(6 月)。 現實: Fed 維持 3.5%–3.75% 不變。 CPI 5 月:4.2%(加速上升,高於 4 月的 3.8%)*。 就業市場:依然強勁。 市場定價:加息概率 70%。降息概率接近零。 Reuters 經濟學家共識:全年不降息。 *數據來源:CNBC,2026 年 6 月 10 日 翻譯: 從「什麼時候降息」 變成了「會不會加息」。 完全反轉。 為什麼這件事跟你的投資有關? 因為利率 直接影響你持有的每一隻股票的估值。 二、利率如何影響估值 一個簡單的邏輯鏈: 利率上升 → 無風險利率上升 → 你對股票的回報要求提高 → 同樣的 FCF,你願意付的價格更低 → 估值下降 → 股價承壓 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/553869045088936\">Day 40 </a>的框架: 回報率 = FCF Yield + Growth 如果無風險利率從 3.5% 升到 4.5% 你對股票的 FCF Yield 要求 也會相應提高。 之前你可能接受 4% 的 FCF Yield。 現在你可能需要 5%。 這意味著: 同一家公司 你願意付的價格 降低了約 20%。 公司沒變。 但你的要求變了。 因為你有了更好的替代選擇: 國債。 三、誰最受傷? 受傷最大:高估值 + 無盈利的成長股 PE > 50x。 FCF 為負。 估值完全靠「未來增長」支撐。 利率上升 = 未來現金流的折現值下降。 成長越遠 → 折現影響越大。 2022 年就是這個劇本: 加息 → 成長股暴跌 40%–70%。","listText":"一、2026 年利率的劇情反轉 年初。 市場預期: 2026 年降息 2–3 次。 經濟放緩。通脹回落。 現在(6 月)。 現實: Fed 維持 3.5%–3.75% 不變。 CPI 5 月:4.2%(加速上升,高於 4 月的 3.8%)*。 就業市場:依然強勁。 市場定價:加息概率 70%。降息概率接近零。 Reuters 經濟學家共識:全年不降息。 *數據來源:CNBC,2026 年 6 月 10 日 翻譯: 從「什麼時候降息」 變成了「會不會加息」。 完全反轉。 為什麼這件事跟你的投資有關? 因為利率 直接影響你持有的每一隻股票的估值。 二、利率如何影響估值 一個簡單的邏輯鏈: 利率上升 → 無風險利率上升 → 你對股票的回報要求提高 → 同樣的 FCF,你願意付的價格更低 → 估值下降 → 股價承壓 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/553869045088936\">Day 40 </a>的框架: 回報率 = FCF Yield + Growth 如果無風險利率從 3.5% 升到 4.5% 你對股票的 FCF Yield 要求 也會相應提高。 之前你可能接受 4% 的 FCF Yield。 現在你可能需要 5%。 這意味著: 同一家公司 你願意付的價格 降低了約 20%。 公司沒變。 但你的要求變了。 因為你有了更好的替代選擇: 國債。 三、誰最受傷? 受傷最大:高估值 + 無盈利的成長股 PE > 50x。 FCF 為負。 估值完全靠「未來增長」支撐。 利率上升 = 未來現金流的折現值下降。 成長越遠 → 折現影響越大。 2022 年就是這個劇本: 加息 → 成長股暴跌 40%–70%。","text":"一、2026 年利率的劇情反轉 年初。 市場預期: 2026 年降息 2–3 次。 經濟放緩。通脹回落。 現在(6 月)。 現實: Fed 維持 3.5%–3.75% 不變。 CPI 5 月:4.2%(加速上升,高於 4 月的 3.8%)*。 就業市場:依然強勁。 市場定價:加息概率 70%。降息概率接近零。 Reuters 經濟學家共識:全年不降息。 *數據來源:CNBC,2026 年 6 月 10 日 翻譯: 從「什麼時候降息」 變成了「會不會加息」。 完全反轉。 為什麼這件事跟你的投資有關? 因為利率 直接影響你持有的每一隻股票的估值。 二、利率如何影響估值 一個簡單的邏輯鏈: 利率上升 → 無風險利率上升 → 你對股票的回報要求提高 → 同樣的 FCF,你願意付的價格更低 → 估值下降 → 股價承壓 Day 40 的框架: 回報率 = FCF Yield + Growth 如果無風險利率從 3.5% 升到 4.5% 你對股票的 FCF Yield 要求 也會相應提高。 之前你可能接受 4% 的 FCF Yield。 現在你可能需要 5%。 這意味著: 同一家公司 你願意付的價格 降低了約 20%。 公司沒變。 但你的要求變了。 因為你有了更好的替代選擇: 國債。 三、誰最受傷? 受傷最大:高估值 + 無盈利的成長股 PE > 50x。 FCF 為負。 估值完全靠「未來增長」支撐。 利率上升 = 未來現金流的折現值下降。 成長越遠 → 折現影響越大。 2022 年就是這個劇本: 加息 → 成長股暴跌 40%–70%。","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/65b0f9d96e72ece369e0e4cd46882ed3","width":"640","height":"442"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/574262026158240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":593504794445008,"gmtCreate":1785919924575,"gmtModify":1785919927742,"author":{"id":"4213809689208512","authorId":"4213809689208512","name":"Winner1224578","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2623232493d547d9ab9dada1887d231","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4213809689208512","authorIdStr":"4213809689208512"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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