**Market Overview**
Statistical data proves effective once again, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.87% today, marking a perfect close for Hong Kong stocks in September at 26,855 points. The next target is the 27,000-point milestone. Despite ongoing US government shutdown risks, tensions continue to escalate. On September 29th local time, the US Department of Commerce announced that subsidiaries of companies on the US "Entity List" will be automatically added to the so-called "blacklist." Specifically, according to new regulations from the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) under the US Department of Commerce, subsidiaries with over 50% ownership by entities on the "Entity List" will face equivalent export control sanctions.
Recent developments suggest a strategic shift rather than direct confrontation. Defense Secretary Hegseth's emergency召集 of US military leaders worldwide reportedly aims to outline the Trump administration's plan to transform the Defense Department into a "War Department" and establish new military standards. The new strategy may shift military focus from "deterring China" to the Western Hemisphere and US homeland, potentially reducing troops in Europe and other regions.
Trump appears pragmatic - using force when possible but adjusting strategy when outmatched. For instance, regarding pharmaceutical tariffs, the US cannot completely replace international drug supply chains, so certain products will receive exemptions. Today, WuXi AppTec (02359) and Pharmaron (03759) rebounded over 6%.
Overseas capital continues to favor Chinese markets. Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund Mubadala, managing $330 billion in assets, signaled increased Asian investment while emphasizing commitment to China. According to Global SWF data, Middle Eastern capital accounted for approximately 60% of global sovereign fund investment in China in 2024, totaling about $6 billion.
**Sector Performance**
Securities stocks, which drove yesterday's index gains, failed to sustain momentum as "anti-involution" rumors lacked follow-through. However, non-ferrous metals maintained strong momentum. Whether viewed from anti-involution, supply-side, demand-side, or continued interest rate cuts, this sector offers compelling narratives. Previously mentioned copper companies including China Nonferrous Mining (01258), China Molybdenum (03993), and Jiangxi Copper (00358), along with lithium companies Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09626), all surged relentlessly.
Particularly noteworthy is Metallurgical Corporation of China (01618), whose potential mineral resource attributes haven't been fully reflected in share price, suggesting further revaluation potential. The stock soared over 10% today.
Technology stocks continued their main trend momentum. Following DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp's release, Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, and Hygon Information completed adaptations. In cloud computing, internet giants like Tencent and Alibaba actively adapted domestic chips. Yesterday's highlighted core sectors all posted significant gains, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) surging nearly 11%, primarily driven by acceleration in newly acquired businesses. September stock picks SenseTime (00020) gained over 5%, while SMIC (00981) rose nearly 4%.
DeepSeek's latest V3.2-Exp model significantly improved training efficiency while dramatically reducing API input/output prices by 50%/70%. This greatly stimulates application-side development, with overseas giants like Apple and OpenAI accelerating AI technology commercialization. Related AI application companies including LinkDoc Technology (02158), Mobvista (01860), and 4Paradigm (09880) all gained over 10%. Previously mentioned Kuaishou-W (01024) rose over 7% today following its Kling 2.5 Turbo model release with enhanced cost-effectiveness. Cloud business VST (00856) surged over 9%.
Recently, multiple suppliers announced storage price increases. Samsung Electronics informed major customers that LPDDR4X, LPDDR5, and LPDDR5X prices will rise 15-30%. Supply chain sources indicate Micron's new quotes for DRAM and NAND products show significant increases, with basic increases exceeding 20%. According to CFM's latest quotes, DDR4 and DDR5 products saw nearly across-the-board price increases this week, with "DDR4 8Gb 3200" products gaining 25% weekly. Key player Shanghai Fudan (01385) rose over 6%.
Musk's return to tangible business shows immediate impact. On September 30th afternoon, Tesla announced via official channels its efforts to scale humanoid robots, planning third-generation launch by end-2025 and mass production starting 2026. Musk projects annual production of 1 million units by 2030. Tesla's board granted Musk up to 423.7 million restricted shares, approximately 12% of adjusted total share capital, distributed across 12 tranches. To receive this substantial compensation, Musk must achieve 12 sets of increasingly challenging, interconnected goals comprising market cap thresholds and operational milestones. Previously mentioned Tesla concept stock Sanhua Intelligent Controls (02050) gained over 6% again.
As global robotics pioneers sprint ahead, domestic robots are also accelerating. Unitree Robotics' listing is expected to accelerate. Previously mentioned leader UBTECH (09880) rose nearly 9% again today, being among the few companies securing major orders.
Another gold stock went public. Zijin Mining (601899.SH) announced yesterday that subsidiary Zijin Gold International (02259) officially listed and traded on Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Main Board on September 30, 2025. Zijin Gold International operates Zijin's gold mining enterprises outside China, primarily engaged in gold exploration, mining, refining, and sales, holding interests in 8 gold mines across Central Asia, South America, Oceania, and Africa.
According to Frost & Sullivan statistics, as of end-2024, Zijin Gold International's gold reserves ranked ninth globally, with production ranking eleventh. From 2022-2024, production and attributable net profit compound annual growth rates reached 21.4% and 61.9% respectively. Revenue grew from $1.818 billion in 2022 to $2.990 billion in 2024, representing 28.2% compound annual growth rate; attributable net profit increased from $184 million to $481 million, achieving 61.9% compound annual growth rate.
The IPO received enthusiastic global investor subscription, marking the largest IPO in global gold mining industry to date, largest overseas IPO for Chinese mining enterprises, and second-largest global IPO this year. Priced at HK$71.59 per share, total fundraising reached approximately HK$25 billion. The stock closed at HK$120.6, up 68%, demonstrating strong market appetite.
Two other newly listed companies performed well: BOTAI Connected (02889), China's third-largest passenger vehicle intelligent cockpit domain controller solution provider with 7.3% market share, priced at HK$102.23 per share and closed at HK$157, up 53%. HYPNU (02583), designer, manufacturer and brand owner of gold watch cases and gold bezels in China, with HIPINE becoming China's largest solid gold precious metal watch brand in 2024, priced at HK$29.6 per share and closed at HK$106, surging 268%.
**Sector Focus**
JPMorgan reports iPhone 17 series demand exceeding last year's levels in the third week post-launch. Base, Pro, and Pro Max delivery times remain elevated, with average delivery times shortening by only 2 days compared to last year's faster pace, indicating strong consumer demand for premium models. While Air model performance remains weak, strong sales of base and Pro series ensure iPhone 17's overall momentum surpasses predecessors, providing solid support for Apple's Q4 performance.
In China, iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max delivery times stand at 36, 22, and 36 days respectively, showing little change from the second week. Notably, iPhone Air remains unavailable in China due to regulatory issues with its eSIM-only configuration, potentially continuing to impact global sales performance.
Key stocks: Sunny Optical (02382), O-film Tech (01478), Goertek (01415), AAC Technologies (02018).
**Individual Stock Analysis**
**Bilibili-W (09626): New Games Show Strong Performance, Q2 Results Demonstrate Steady Growth**
Q2 revenue reached RMB 7.34 billion, up 20% year-over-year, slightly exceeding expectations. Q2 net profit was RMB 220 million versus RMB 610 million loss in the same period last year, with profitability expectations gradually materializing.
Commentary: Q2 financial results achieved steady growth. Value-added services generated RMB 2.84 billion in Q2, up 10.6% year-over-year, accounting for 38.7% of total revenue and remaining the largest segment. Exclusive video charging services achieved over 100% revenue growth in H1 2025.
Gaming business: Bilibili has been active recently. The company's new strategic competitive card game "Three Kingdoms Hundred Generals" opened for pre-registration and will undergo initial public testing in October. Advertising revenue grew 20% year-over-year, with performance advertising up over 30%, benefiting from increased advertiser numbers and AI technology improvements.
From user perspective: 1) User base continues expanding: Q1 2025 platform DAU and MAU reached 107/368 million. 2) Following first-time profitability in Q3 2024, Bilibili has maintained profitability for four consecutive quarters. Mobile gaming business performed exceptionally well, generating RMB 3.34 billion in H1, up 68.0% year-over-year, primarily driven by exclusive licensed game "Three Kingdoms: Strategies Determine the World."
3) Platform maintains high stickiness: average daily usage time reached 108 minutes; 50 million users spend over two hours daily on Bilibili; 15-year veteran user retention rate stands at 90%.
For gaming business, evergreen games remain stable while focusing on new game performance. Looking ahead, the company anticipates effects from "Three Kingdoms: Strategies Determine the World" traditional Chinese version launch in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, while expecting performance from new games including "Escape from Yakov" and "Mischievous Face."
Driven by stable performance of "Three Kingdoms: Strategic Edition," mobile game revenue is projected to grow 61% year-over-year. Advertising business benefits from increased advertisers and technology upgrades, expected to achieve 18% year-over-year growth.
Young community competitiveness remains significant. The company has over 23.5 million premium members, with over 80% subscribing to annual or auto-renewal packages, demonstrating high user stickiness. Additionally, Bilibili's gaming, value-added services, advertising, and IP derivatives are all contributing fully. Multiple game reserves are expected to continue contributing performance increments, combined with active deployment in new technologies like AI, accelerating commercialization progress.