$Alphabet(GOOG)$ Respectfully disagree with the idea that Google will slow its CapEx spending ahead. There seems to be a widespread view that Alphabet will pull back on CapEx, but I see management as focused on surviving and winning a race they can't afford to lose, while also pushing cloud revenue growth as fast as possible. Unless every player is forced to slow their build-outs at the exact same moment, which seems unlikely, I don't see Alphabet leadership tapping the brakes. If anything, I expect the next quarterly numbers and conference call to show CapEx coming in above analyst estimates. Long GOOG, AMZN, and indexes.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $APPLIED DIGITAL CORP(APLD)$ Elon spent Sunday night talking about guppies. The whales report soon. Microsoft buys capacity from a good chunk of the neoclouds he was warning about, Nebius and IREN included, and Google backstops billions of Fluidstack's lease obligations at Cipher and TeraWulf. What those two say about capacity on their calls lands directly on the companies supplying it. Two other things come first, power and money, and this group lives on both. GE Vernova reports before the open, and it makes the gas turbines a lot of the buildout is waiting on. It ended June with 1
Some investors seem to be dumping quality hyperscalers like $Alphabet(GOOG)$ / $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ right along with struggling neoclouds such as CRWV. The hyperscalers have moats that are hard to challenge, while the weaker neocloud providers look more likely to end up getting acquired at fire-sale valuations by the bigger players in the industry.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Anthropic's IPO filing has chips bouncing, Meta is raising tens of billions for AI, and Tesla is ripping higher on an upgrade plus SpaceX chatter. After last week's CapEx scare, the market suddenly seems willing to buy the AI story again. Sustainable, or just short covering?
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ NOV20 325C, still actionable. Zone: $315.06 to $319.50 Invalidation: close under $310 Objectives: $336, then $355 Up 5.9% to the first objective and 11.9% to the second, against 2.3% risk on the invalidation. That works out to better than 5 to 1 to the second target. Alphabet sold off for a week and then quietly stopped falling on Friday. It slipped from $336.40 on Tuesday to $317.28 on Friday, but Friday held above its low at $316.99 and closed with real volume behind it. That pause is the heart of this swing. A walk back toward $336 comes first, then $355 if buyers keep showing up. A close under $310 would say the pause was only a pause. P.S. Alphabet reports after the close on October 28, so that date is worth watching for