To The Moon

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Today's drop seems to trace back to the media estimating OpenAI at $70B ARR a few weeks ago, then updating or correcting that figure to $50B ARR. Not OpenAI's fault that the media messed it up, but it is what it is. They used gross ARR in one case and net ARR in another. OpenAI's business is still growing fast at 70% since July. Either way, the OpenAI commitment to AWS is being framed by doomers as a huge risk. But the reality is it spreads over 8 years, or $12.5B annualized. That works out to roughly 2.5% to 6.94% of AWS business over the next 5 years. If it disappeared completely, life goes on. The $50B equity stake is around 1.8% of our current market cap. Similar situation with Anthropic. Their commitment is $110B over

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Prime Day has started. Hopefully it can hold its gains, with a little over three weeks to go until earnings. I'm hoping the results will be strong, with great guidance.

$Apple(AAPL)$  Options traders on the poor side need to relax. As a long, I have time on my side. Whether the breakout comes a week earlier or a week later, does it really matter? It will happen either way. Then I'll have a choice: sell at 400 or wait for 500.

For those newer to investing, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  and $Visa(V)$  look like reasonable core holdings with room for growth, while $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$  is more of a speculative play. Curious what others think.

$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple software chief Craig Federighi said in an interview that he is excited to see what developers will do with the hinge mechanism in the iPhone Duo. He mentioned an API that lets developers read the hinge angle with around five degrees of accuracy, along with what Apple calls the "pose" of the device. Apple itself uses the hinge angle in a number of ways, including a feature that caught on quickly: the outer screen defocuses into a preview of the inner one as you open the phone. He described the feature as subtle but magical. Federighi also said he is confident developers will find creative and exciting uses for the hinge information, similar to what they have done with other iPhone data Apple has exposed. He noted Apple has

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$  Ugly SPY close. We definitely weren't the only ones fading it, and it held up better than most. I don't know exactly why, but sudden end-of-day liquidity grabs like that tend to lead to bullish setups. A lot of people get scared, shaken out, or frustrated, which is exactly the point of those moves. Especially the day after a Fed decision and speech.

OpenAI just partnered with $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  to run its managed AI agents on AWS infrastructure. That gives AWS a direct route to monetize the agent layer as more enterprise workloads move toward long-running autonomous tasks.

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Daily chart. $235-240 is a great buying zone for the bulls. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  SPX $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ 

$Netflix(NFLX)$ Algo-driven selloff. Selling off on vibes. There is no real reason for the daily 1-2% dump. Red every single day. I have seen this playbook before, it happened with MSFT. At one point it was down 1-2% every day, and it was so predictable you could short the stock and make money. The stock was selling off every single day during the entire summer. It happened to $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , then $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ , but all it took to turn things around was a single news item, earnings report, or investor letter, and then the sentiment shifted for the hyperscalers. NFLX is down 45% in over a year. You would be nuts to think managem

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon is the real long term AI winner. Half these companies will go bankrupt.