To The Moon

$IREN Ltd(IREN)$  Daily and 4hr RSI are both below 25. That's deeply oversold territory at this point, so I'm expecting a bounce. If it was worth liking above 30, it's hard not to like it even more down here. Nothing has changed in the business fundamentals, and AI isn't going anywhere.

A 60% pullback on a company growing revenue around 69% and building out production in Texas feels like an overreaction to me. $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$  isn't risk-free, but the demand story didn't vanish in one week. Watching for stabilization.

YTD neocloud performance: $NEBIUS(NBIS)$  +83% is the only notable winner. The rest are all in the red: $TeraWulf Inc.(WULF)$  -8.32%, $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$  -22%, $APPLIED DIGITAL CORP(APLD)$  -36%, $IREN Ltd(IREN)$  -37%.

$Micron Technology(MU)$ $SK hynix(SKHY)$  KOSPI. Korea pumping. At least they came to their senses after the FUD around CXMT selling. Cheap prices today were a bonus. Now the next wall of worry is CPI.

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ AMD has recovered its earlier losses and just turned green. It's still up 15% over the past month. The Nasdaq is heading higher too, so maybe the panic will settle down soon.

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ Bought 160c 10/16 contracts. Light position. I'm willing to let the premiums go to zero. Discipline over emotions. NFA.

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Price target $3000. CXMT claimed they would make DDR5 memory, but it isn't being sold in China or anywhere else. CXMT doesn't have EUV, so they can't make 4E2 memory. $SK hynix(SKHY)$  is 2-4 years ahead of CXMT in 4E2, and they have no production plans for it. 4E2 memory has issues with leakage and ECC failures. CXMT can't make HBM4 or HBM4E, and there's no plan for it either. $Micron Technology(MU)$ , $SK hynix(SKHY)$ , and Samsung generate most of their profits from HBM. They do make some other memory products, but the HBM revenue is what keeps their margins stable. CXMT can only se

$SK hynix(SKHY)$  TWAP selling has continued, and it has now been going on for a few weeks as large global funds appear to be paring holdings in the Kospi, which likely includes Samsung and SK Hynix. The Kospi is sitting around the 61.8% retracement now, and it is hard to say where it might end up. Regardless of how ETFs and indexes feel about Samsung and SK Hynix, they have to sell if the stocks or the KOSPI become overweighted in their holdings. There is another trading gap at 6,351, and that may be the final target while the TWAP selling continues.

$SK hynix(SKHY)$  Leader in HBM memory and wafer layering, and they're building new factories. It's undervalued just because it's not a US stock. I bought some recently at 170.6. Earnings should be strong.

$Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$  Unlike Toshiba, which is less vertically integrated, this one already has production-scale HAMR deployments and a subsequent generation scheduled for qualification.