$DECU$ $QQQY$ $XDTE$ By Lawrence G. McMillan The market has been frustrating to many over the past two months since new all-time highs were made in early June. Bulls expected another attempt at new highs by now, while bears expected a larger correction (given the uncertainties of Iran, interest rates, etc.). But the fact is, $SPX has remained in a trading range over that time. There is currently resistance at 7580 (July's highs) and then at the all-time highs in the 7600-7620 area. Support was broken slightly yesterday, as $SPX probed downward, but there is support at 7300 or slightly above that level, with further support at the July lows near 72
That Old Familiar Song: Volatility Rises in August (Preview)
$RSEE$ $QQQP$ $JULD$ By Lawrence G. McMillan It is once again time to consider that $VIX may have bottomed for the year. It is a common occurrence for $VIX to make its annual lows in July and then begin to rise in August. Sometimes that rise is stupendous, as it was two years ago. Most of the time the annual peak for $VIX is reached in October, which is when the market often sells into a strong bottom. We can compose a seasonal chart of $VIX. Chart 1 encompasses the years 1989 through 2025 (the most recent full year of trading). While there is $VIX data for earlier years, including 1987 and even 1988 distorts things too much. The data in Chart 1 u
$DECU$ $QQQY$ $XDTE$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Buying the dip has been working on an intraday basis recently, but the larger picture is that there are dips to buy almost every day. That means that $SPX is not making much progress. Despite breaking out on the upside from the triangle formation that had existed, it has run into resistance at 7580 and has failed to challenge the all-time highs at 7600-7620. This keeps the $SPX chart from being upgraded to "bullish." Rather, it is range-bound at best. There is support at 7420 the lows of early July. Then below that the lower side of the triangle is still in place, and a breakdown below 7300 would be neg
By Lawrence G. McMillan This week, $SPX has tried to break out over the top of the triangle formation that has inhibited price movement since early June. Indicators have improved somewhat, so that is certainly a possibility. However, the next resistance level at 7600-7620 is the all-time highs, and there would need to be a clear breakout over that level in order to turn the $SPX chart to a fully "bullish" status. There is support at 7420 (tested briefly a couple of times in the past week), with strong support at 7300, near the bottom of the triangle. A move below 7300 would be quite negative, and would probably indicate a quick test of longer-term support in the 7050- 7100 area. Equity-only put-call ratios have been rising for over a month, and that is a bearish weight on the stock market.
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By Lawrence G. McMillan The market continues to consolidate in the triangle formation that we had pointed out previously. It is currently trying to break out on the upside. The pink lines on the chart in Figure 1 define the triangle. In a broad sense, a breakout above 7500 would be positive, or a breakdown below 7300 would be negative. The equity-only put-call ratios are still rising (see Figures 2 and 3). That is, even though $SPX has rallied over the past few days, traders are still buying puts as hedges, if not necessarily for pure speculation. In either case, these ratios will remain on their sell signals for the stock market until they roll over and begin to decline. A more positive note has been the improvement in breadth recently . The NYSE-based breadth oscillator has