$TVIX$ $UVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan This market is the epitome of our phrase, "overbought does not mean sell." It just keeps going higher, and now the rally has broadened enough so that the Dow ($DJX; DIA), NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) and Russell 2000 ($RUT; IWM) are all doing the same. All of these indices, including $SPX, have made new all- time closing and intraday highs this week. $SPX has support at 7330 -- the lows from earlier this month. Below that there are various support areas: 7275, 7050-7175, and then a major support at 7000. Equity-only put-call ratios gave sell signals a week ago when they turned upward from very low levels on their charts. Those sell signals were confirmed by both
By Lawrence G. McMillan In 1973, inflation, interest rates, and impeachment dominated headlines during a brutal bear market. Today, a different set of "I's" is making news, yet stocks continue to push higher. In the large bear market of 1973-1974, it was common for the media to say that the market was worried about the three I’s: inflation, interest rates, and impeachment. Today, we have a huge bull market going on, and it apparently is not all that concerned with the current set of three I’s: inflation, interest rates, and Iran. And if the mid-term elections swing left, you could add the fourth i (impeachment) back into the mix as well. Obviously, the concerns over inflation and interest rates back in 1973 (during the OPEC Oil Embargo) were much larger than today’s concerns over the same
New Webinar Series: Understanding 0DTE Options — Part 1
By Lawrence G. McMillan 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options have rapidly become one of the fastest-growing areas of the options market. Trading volume in products such as $SPX, SPY, and QQQ has exploded in recent years, bringing increased attention — and controversy — to these ultra-short-term contracts. In Part 1 of this new 2-part webinar series, Lawrence G. McMillan examines the facts, rumors, and controversies surrounding 0DTE trading. Topics include how these options behave compared to longer-term options, whether they are impacting market volatility, and how traders can use measures such as $VIX1D and True Range to better evaluate pricing and strategy selection. The webinar also discusses: Gamma and delta behavior in 0DTE options Institutional vs. retail participation Buying vs. s
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Three different internal indicators have generated sell signals over the past week or so, but the most important indicator -- the chart of $SPX remains bullish. When these conditions exist, it is usually the chart of $SPX that wins out. $SPX had a modest pullback this past week, but it didn't even fall as far as the rising 20-day moving average. $SPX found support near 7330 (the topmost of the red horizontal support lines shown in Figure 1). Rather quietly, $SPX has bounced off of that general level three times this month. Equity-only put-call ratios also curled upward this week, thus confirming new sell signals, both in terms of the computer analyses as we
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan $SPX continues to surge, having made new all-time highs on four or the last five trading days. There is minor support at 7338 (the past week's low), and at 7275 (the bottom of the most recent gap on the $SPX chart). Stronger support might be found in the 7050-7175 area, and then there should be solid support at 7000. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to fall, since there has been heavy call buying accompanying this rally. They have reached overbought states -- especially the weighted ratio (Figure 3), which is now down to levels last seen in November 2021. The standard ratio (Figure 2) is low as well, but not as low as that. Both breadth oscillators are
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Whether you think it's MOMO (momentum) or FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), or whatever, it doesn't really matter. This market is a perfect example of why "overbought does not mean sell." Eventually, sell signals will appear, but so far, we have had no confirmed sell signals. This week saw another gap up on the chart, but very little in the way of a pullback that one could count on as a support level. There is weak or minor support at 7175, 7100, and 7050. Then the main support is 7000. If $SPX were to fall back below that, all of the action this month would have been retraced. That would not sit well, but we're not likely to see a pullback like that anytime soon