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VickyZhou

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- VickyZhouVickyZhou
  ·2020-12-08
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- VickyZhouVickyZhou
  ·2020-12-08
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- VickyZhouVickyZhou
  ·2020-11-18
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  Breaking the "three-year curse" of A-shares, Goldman Sachs predicts another 15% increase next year
  股民们苦苦期待的A股长牛可能真的要来了？回顾历史，A股给大多数人的印象都是牛短熊长。事实上，A股历史上的牛市时间确实不太长。统计显示，A股牛市持续时间一般在2年到2年半之间。 2005年6月
  Breaking the "three-year curse" of A-shares, Goldman Sachs predicts another 15% increase next year
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- VickyZhouVickyZhou
  ·2020-03-27
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- VickyZhouVickyZhou
  ·2020-03-22
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- VickyZhouVickyZhou
  ·2020-03-11
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09:03","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Breaking the \"three-year curse\" of A-shares, Goldman Sachs predicts another 15% increase next year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181856380","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"股民们苦苦期待的A股长牛可能真的要来了？\n\n回顾历史，A股给大多数人的印象都是牛短熊长。\n事实上，A股历史上的牛市时间确实不太长。统计显示，A股牛市持续时间一般在2年到2年半之间。\n\n 2005年6月","content":"<p>The A-share long bull that investors are looking forward to may really be coming? Looking back at history, A-shares give most people the impression that bulls are short and bears are long.</p><p>In fact, the bull market in the history of A-shares is really not too long. Statistics show that the A-share bull market generally lasts between 2 years and 2 and a half years.</p><p>The bull market from June 2005 to October 2007 lasted for 2 years and 4 months; The fast bull from October 2008 to August 2009 lasted only one year, followed by a year and a half of high volatility; From 2013 to June 2015, it was a one-and-a-half-year GEM structural bull market and a one-year comprehensive bull market, totaling two and a half years; The slow bull from 2016 to 2017 lasted for 2 years. From 2019 to now, the market has been rising for two consecutive years. Can A-shares break the \"three-year curse\" this time and achieve a longer bull market?</p><p><b>Goldman Sachs predicts that both MSCI China and CSI 300 will return 15% next year, which means that by the end of next year, the targets of MSCI China and CSI 300 will be 125 and 5,600 points respectively.</b>This conclusion is mainly based on the following four analyses.</p><p>The first is the rate of return based on fundamentals. Goldman Sachs expects Chinese corporate earnings to grow by 20% and 15% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, while the target PE of the MSCI China and CSI 300 Indexes by the end of 2021 will reach 15.6 times and 14.5 times, respectively. After combining EPS growth rate and target forecast,<b>Goldman Sachs expects both MSCI China (MXCN) and CSI 300 to return 15% in 2021.</b></p><p>Second, it is the implied rate of return of macro factors. Goldman Sachs' macro model, which shows the impact that the macro environment may have on stock returns. The model shows that in a normalized macro environment,<b>MSCI China returned 11% in 2021.</b></p><p>Third, the classification summation method (SOTP). Considering that new Chinese companies are subject to very different fundamentals and valuation dynamics, the changing index composition also requires more sector-specific approaches to valuation. Goldman Sachs divides companies into two groups: \"new\" and \"old\", and corresponds to different profit expectations respectively. The final estimate<b>MSCI China returned 13% in 2021.</b></p><p>Fourth, it is Goldman Sachs' target price summary method. Goldman Sachs' research team covers 193 companies in MSCI China, which are equivalent to 85% of the market value of the entire index. A simple summary of the 12-month target prices for these covered stocks,<b>Goldman Sachs expects the index to rise 15% over the next 12 months.</b></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Breaking the \"three-year curse\" of A-shares, Goldman Sachs predicts another 15% increase next year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBreaking the \"three-year curse\" of A-shares, Goldman Sachs predicts another 15% increase next year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-11-18 09:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The A-share long bull that investors are looking forward to may really be coming? Looking back at history, A-shares give most people the impression that bulls are short and bears are long.</p><p>In fact, the bull market in the history of A-shares is really not too long. Statistics show that the A-share bull market generally lasts between 2 years and 2 and a half years.</p><p>The bull market from June 2005 to October 2007 lasted for 2 years and 4 months; The fast bull from October 2008 to August 2009 lasted only one year, followed by a year and a half of high volatility; From 2013 to June 2015, it was a one-and-a-half-year GEM structural bull market and a one-year comprehensive bull market, totaling two and a half years; The slow bull from 2016 to 2017 lasted for 2 years. From 2019 to now, the market has been rising for two consecutive years. Can A-shares break the \"three-year curse\" this time and achieve a longer bull market?</p><p><b>Goldman Sachs predicts that both MSCI China and CSI 300 will return 15% next year, which means that by the end of next year, the targets of MSCI China and CSI 300 will be 125 and 5,600 points respectively.</b>This conclusion is mainly based on the following four analyses.</p><p>The first is the rate of return based on fundamentals. Goldman Sachs expects Chinese corporate earnings to grow by 20% and 15% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, while the target PE of the MSCI China and CSI 300 Indexes by the end of 2021 will reach 15.6 times and 14.5 times, respectively. After combining EPS growth rate and target forecast,<b>Goldman Sachs expects both MSCI China (MXCN) and CSI 300 to return 15% in 2021.</b></p><p>Second, it is the implied rate of return of macro factors. Goldman Sachs' macro model, which shows the impact that the macro environment may have on stock returns. The model shows that in a normalized macro environment,<b>MSCI China returned 11% in 2021.</b></p><p>Third, the classification summation method (SOTP). Considering that new Chinese companies are subject to very different fundamentals and valuation dynamics, the changing index composition also requires more sector-specific approaches to valuation. Goldman Sachs divides companies into two groups: \"new\" and \"old\", and corresponds to different profit expectations respectively. The final estimate<b>MSCI China returned 13% in 2021.</b></p><p>Fourth, it is Goldman Sachs' target price summary method. Goldman Sachs' research team covers 193 companies in MSCI China, which are equivalent to 85% of the market value of the entire index. A simple summary of the 12-month target prices for these covered stocks,<b>Goldman Sachs expects the index to rise 15% over the next 12 months.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3610724\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3610724","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1181856380","content_text":"股民们苦苦期待的A股长牛可能真的要来了？\n\n回顾历史，A股给大多数人的印象都是牛短熊长。\n事实上，A股历史上的牛市时间确实不太长。统计显示，A股牛市持续时间一般在2年到2年半之间。\n\n 2005年6月至2007年10月的牛市持续2年4个月；\n\n\n 2008年10月至2009年8月的快牛只有1年时间，之后是长达1年半的高位震荡；\n\n\n 2013至2015年6月，是1年半的创业板结构性牛市和1年的全面牛市，总共2年半；\n\n\n 2016至2017年的慢牛，持续时间2年。\n\n从2019年到如今，市场已经连续涨了2年，A股这次是否能打破“三年魔咒”实现更长时间的牛市呢？\n高盛预计，MSCI中国和沪深300在明年的回报率都将达到15%，这意味着到明年年底MSCI中国和沪深300的目标位分别为125和5600点。得出这一结论主要依据以下四种分析。\n第一，是基于基本面的回报率。高盛预计中国企业盈利将在2021年和2022年分别增长20%和15%，同时MSCI中国和沪深300指数2021年底的目标PE分别达到15.6倍和14.5倍。 结合EPS增速和目标预测后，高盛预计MSCI中国（MXCN）和沪深300在2021年的回报率均为15%。\n第二，是宏观因子隐含回报率。高盛的宏观模型，展示了宏观环境可能对股票回报产生的影响。模型显示，在常态化的宏观环境下，2021年MSCI中国的回报率为11%。\n第三，分类加总法（SOTP）。考虑到新的中国企业受到非常不同的基本面和估值动态影响，不断变化的指数构成也需要更多特定行业的方法来估值。高盛将企业分成“新”和“旧”两组，并分别对应不同的盈利预期，最终估计2021年MSCI中国回报率为13%。\n第四，是高盛的目标价格汇总方法。高盛的研究团队覆盖了MSCI中国中的193家企业，这些企业相当于整个指数市值的85%。简单汇总对这些覆盖股票的12个月目标价，高盛预计指数在未来12个月将上涨15%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":929142990,"gmtCreate":1585272762810,"gmtModify":1705297635540,"author":{"id":"3456957921497407","authorId":"3456957921497407","name":"VickyZhou","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3456957921497407","idStr":"3456957921497407"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/929142990","repostId":"2022962184","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":920396234,"gmtCreate":1584867314728,"gmtModify":1705296091817,"author":{"id":"3456957921497407","authorId":"3456957921497407","name":"VickyZhou","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3456957921497407","idStr":"3456957921497407"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/920396234","repostId":"2021598579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":965379082,"gmtCreate":1583919498046,"gmtModify":1705292180254,"author":{"id":"3456957921497407","authorId":"3456957921497407","name":"VickyZhou","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3456957921497407","idStr":"3456957921497407"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/965379082","repostId":"1100848247","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}