To The Moon

In my previous post, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the short-term trading opportunity at the bottom of VIX, as well as the still-bullish opportunity in short-term crude oil deferred-month contracts, namely the September WTI crude oil contract. A week has passed, and both of those calls have played out: VIX has already bottomed and turned higher: The September crude oil futures contract has rebounded continuously from the bottom, already rising 17 points from its low: This time, let’s talk about the warning I have been repeatedly giving everyone: the issue of a medium- to short-term phased pullback in U.S. stocks. As the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have both moved higher recently, global bond yields have broadly risen, and a pullback in global risk assets, character

Today, let’s talk about one of the hottest topics in the investment world recently: the sharp rally in the U.S. semiconductor sector. It is fair to say that, whether we look at the fundamentals and financial data or at market price performance, the semiconductor sector has become a major driver of the recent rise in U.S. equities, and arguably the dominant one. As we all know, in the recent performance of U.S. equity gains, large technology companies—especially the SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—have delivered the largest share of the market’s beta gains. At the same time, in the upward revisions to average earnings-per-share expectations for the S&P 500, semiconductor names such as Nvidia and Micron have also made the biggest contributions. However, even in last week’s market ra

At present, global risk appetite across risk assets is still mainly driven by U.S. equities. As the marginal impact of Federal Reserve commentary has faded, the absolute dominant force shaping market sentiment remains the progress of the U.S.-Iran war. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指数2606(MES2606)$ Why do we say the Fed’s commentary has become less influential at the margin? The reason is simple. First, there is no certainty that the so-called new chair, Warsh, will actually be able to take office smoothly

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

In fact, the two week window of de-escalation in the conflict has long been priced into capital market movements. Although a week ago the US and Iran were still trading harsh rhetoric, with the US even threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, after all that saber-rattling you may have noticed that crude oil did not register a new high. Moreover, the US one-year inflation expectations – which typically spike along with crude oil – and the 10-year Treasury yield – which is most sensitive to US equity moves – remained remarkably calm：  $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion(TYO)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$    In fact, the 10-yea

U. S. President Donald Trump delivered a national televised address on the evening of April 1, unilaterally claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in military operations against Iran. He also stated that the U.S. will continue to heavily strike Iran over the next "two to three weeks," while negotiations with Iran are simultaneously proceeding. His remarks have utterly shattered the market's expectations that the "U.S.-Iran war" could end in the short term. Moreover, his approach of negotiating while launching military strikes strongly highlights an anxious state within the Trump administration: attempting to stabilize oil prices and inflation while being unable to conclude the war quickly, essentially being dragged down by Iran. The situation has clearly spiraled out of con

1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,

First, let me update you on my recent trading moves. I haven't been particularly active in equities lately; instead, I've maintained a light short position on the Euro and locked in some profits from a crude oil bull calendar spread (buying the near month and selling the deferred month three months out). Currently, my dprofits are entirely concentrated in my futures account. Today, I closed my crude oil calendar spread position, booking a modest profit over the past few days. Remember our trading rule? "Rest during minor volatility, rest during extreme volatility, and no rest when there is no volatility". When a major risk event triggers massive market swings, our best approach in the futures market is to minimize our trade frequency, increase our win rate, and appropriately reduce our pos

Ahead of the holiday, I told everyone to temporarily consider taking profits on bullish positions in the U.S. equity market, and to look at building small long put option positions once the S&P moved below its 20-week moving average; alternatively, you could try buying VIX-long exposure on dips, using the VIX 20-day moving average as the stop level. From what we’ve seen so far, the VIX-long position should already be profitable： $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(VIXY)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$ $Volatility Index - main 2603(VIXmain)$ My strategy remains un

The market’s focus is gradually shifting from gold and silver to U.S. equities, but we want to remind everyone that around the coming Spring Festival period, U.S. equities are actually the asset most in need of bearish “protection.” After a sharp sell-off, the U.S. stock market has recently seen a modest rebound, which is technically normal. However, I would not take this small rebound as evidence that Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and U.S. equities have returned to a sustained upward trend. On the contrary, I prefer to interpret it this way: the volatility cycle in U.S. equities most likely has not finished, and this rebound looks more like a “covering” move within volatility rather than a signal that a trend has been confirmed. First signal: the DXY The first signal that U.S. equities may