To The Moon

Last time I talked with you about this week's options strategy: besides continuing to run the index options straddle into rallies, one could also consider going long U.S. Treasuries on dips — especially the price of the long-bond TLT. But on Treasuries, as of today, after the escalation of the U.S.–Iran war, everyone needs to be more careful: rising crude oil drives inflation expectations higher, which could push Treasury yields up further, and Treasury prices would then face downward pressure. So we can lift the stop-loss on the buy-the-dip Treasury view a bit higher — up to near the prior-low support around $83.5. Review：Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserv

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t

In a stock market environment with ambiguous directionality and persistent consolidation, capital flow data often serves as the primary reference indicator for traders because these data are more authentic than sentiment. In last week's market liquidity data, we discovered: capital is accelerating its flight from US stocks, especially the seven major tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs, where the traces of institutional capital withdrawal are already quite clear. Moreover, the overall net capital flow of individual US stocks is once again showing an expanding outflow. In the latest weekly data of institutional capital inflows and outflows for major seats compiled by Goldman Sachs, massive amounts of capital are fleeing US tech stocks, particularly the 7 star tech stocks:

Our two prior key calls now appear to have largely played out: First, the pullback in U.S. equities from elevated levels would likely remain within an 8% range; second, crude oil had most likely topped, with WTI futures expected to retest the $65 level in the near term. Review：Oil Plunges, Undercurrents Thrive? June 19 Deal Could Flip — Option Strategy to Capture Time Value Red Alert! The Dollar Just Broke Out—How to Bulletproof Your Stock Portfolio Now！ Many market participants have attributed last night’s strong rebound in U.S. equities to Micron’s better-than-expected earnings. However, it is important to recognize that Micron’s results merely act

The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</

With rising expectations that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement will be signed, the market appears to have temporarily escaped the shadow of inflation, and U.S. equities have finally welcomed a long-overdue rebound. Many investors may feel this is the time to buy the dip. However, I want to caution: do not yet let your guard down. The market's volatile phase has not passed. The current gains in U.S. stocks remain unstable, and the first leg of the crude oil bearish rally may already be complete. We need to patiently wait for the November 19 ceasefire agreement signing results and specific details to materialize before the market can potentially launch a new bearish phase. More importantly, for both the fragile rebound in U.S. equities and U.S. Treasuries, adopting a selling-options strateg

This round of correction in the U.S. stock market has a very clear trigger: crude oil stayed at elevated levels for too long, pushing up U.S. inflation data. This, in turn, raised expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and led to an unexpected surge in U.S. Treasury yields. As a result, capital rotated from equities into bonds, and under the pressure of higher interest rates, U.S. stocks experienced profit-taking and mean reversion. $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 - Jun 2026(MNQ2606)$ $ProShares UltraPr

Recent capital flows in the financial markets paint quite an intriguing picture. While everyone is still watching to see if US stocks have peaked or will continue to surge, massive funds have quietly executed a major rotation. In today's note, I will use the latest market fund data to discuss these ongoing trend changes. Let me start with the conclusion: the current downward trend in U.S. stocks may not have actually ended, but until the S&P 500 posts a pullback of more than 8%, we should not preemptively assume this is a massive bear market. We can consider carefully building short positions, but once key market signals appear, we must take profits promptly and adjust our bearish view. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

When you have a basic forecast for financial market trends, waiting for that prediction to materialize is often the most agonizing part. My recent source of anxiety stems from a potential intermediate-term top in the US stock market. Because the historically predictable impulse rally of the US Dollar Index might materialize within the next month, US equities and other risk assets could face downward pressure from a strong dollar, triggering a correction. Although this drawdown might not be massive, if we mindlessly maintain a "permabull" stance, we could suffer short-term losses. Watch for Technical Bearish Divergence According to our historical backtesting, the probability of US stocks delivering positive returns over the next three months is currently at its lowest, and a substantial dra

In my previous post, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the short-term trading opportunity at the bottom of VIX, as well as the still-bullish opportunity in short-term crude oil deferred-month contracts, namely the September WTI crude oil contract. A week has passed, and both of those calls have played out: VIX has already bottomed and turned higher: The September crude oil futures contract has rebounded continuously from the bottom, already rising 17 points from its low: This time, let’s talk about the warning I have been repeatedly giving everyone: the issue of a medium- to short-term phased pullback in U.S. stocks. As the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have both moved higher recently, global bond yields have broadly risen, and a pullback in global risk assets, character