To The Moon

As Jerome Powell continues to stress uncertainties around the economy and inflation—firmly sticking to a “hawkish” stance against rapid rate cuts—President Trump has now “reached his limit,” openly questioning whether he holds the authority to “fire” the Federal Reserve Chair.Though actually removing Powell in practice would be quite difficult—and with Powell’s term set to expire next year, it·s debatable whether such a move would even be necessary—the increasing disconnect between presidential policy and Fed monetary policy has become stark. Against the backdrop of shifting tariff policies, unexpected headlines have started to hit the market with greater frequency. Given Trump’s characteristic unpredictability, it’s hardly unthinkable that he might impulsively announce Powell’s dismissal,

The recent market has become highly disorderly due to fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies, with dramatic falls and rises triggered by mere words. In this emotional market environment, news can only determine short-term trends. Despite significant volatility, these large fluctuations do not represent medium to long-term market directions. Therefore, Trump's statement about delaying tariff policy implementation by 90 days alone cannot confirm that US stock indices have entered a reversal pattern - what if he changes his mind again in the near future?Technical Observation of US Stock IndicesWith neither news nor fundamentals yielding clear conclusions, it's evident that the market is heavily influenced by emotions. Therefore, tracking the market using technical analysis methods will be mo

On April 4, China announced a series of countermeasures against the United States' imposition of tariffs, including a decisive move to impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the U.S. This unprecedented response caught global markets off guard, highlighting China's preparedness since the 2018 trade war and revealing vulnerabilities in Western financial markets. As news spread, commodities faced significant sell-offs, and global markets began pricing in a potential economic recession. The U.S. stock indices’ sharp decline echoed patterns seen during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, signaling growing pessimism about the global economy.U.S. Stock Indices Enter Recession Mode, Resembling 2020 Pandemic TrendsThough skepticism toward U.S. stock performanc

On March 26, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an announcement at the White House declaring a 25% tariff on imported cars. The measure will take effect on April 2. Trump emphasized that the tariff would be permanent, adding that cars manufactured within the United States would be exempt from the tax.Trump's statement quickly triggered backlash from U.S. trade partners, including the European Union, Canada, and Japan. 1. Where is the Support Level for the Second Phase of the U.S. Stock Index Decline?Recent analyses suggest that the U.S. stock index rebound seen earlier was merely temporary and not indicative of a full recovery. In fact, the rebound was weaker than expected, reinforcing the likelihood that February's peak will remain the high point for the year. Given the renewed downward t

Media Report: U.S. and Russia Expected to Release Joint Statement at 4 PM Beijing Time.According to CBS News, after the Saudi-hosted talks on a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea region, it is anticipated that the United States and Russia will issue a joint statement. .The announcement is scheduled for 4 AM Washington time, 11 AM Moscow time, and 4 PM Beijing time. While specific details of the statement remain unclear, reports from U.S. technical teams in Saudi Arabia shared with the Trump administration appear optimistic. Additionally, Ukrainian officials have been briefed on the developments.Historically, factors driving gold price fluctuations have revolved around two key attributes: its role as a hedge against inflation and its value as a safe-haven asset. Since President Trump took

This Thursday at 2:00 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate setting meeting, which receives significant market attention, especially during quarterly meetings. Previously, there were pessimistic expectations about the Fed cutting rates twice this year. If the post-meeting press conference does not convey a sufficiently hawkish stance, the market might become more optimistic, potentially boosting indices further. Therefore, stock index trends might change around Wednesday this week. If there's a significant rebound on Monday and Tuesday, investors should be cautious about potential peak rebounds on Wednesday, as the market's fear index (VIX) is relatively high, and a double bottom is quite common.Wind Direction: Will the Federal Reserve Remain Cautious This Month,

Last year, to avoid a U.S. government debt default, Congress approved a temporary funding bill extending federal government funding until March 14, 2025. With this deadline approaching next week, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a new temporary funding measure lasting until September 30. This bill is scheduled for a vote next Tuesday. Although the probability of outright rejection is relatively low, uncertainties remain. Political maneuvering by a minority of lawmakers and possible delays from the Democratic Party could complicate or prolong the bill's passage, thereby negatively impacting market sentiment.U.S. Stocks: Approaching Interim Lows—Short-Term Rebound PossibleAfter significant declines last week, major U.S. indices—led by the S&P 500—have dropped around 8%, nearing a

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky engaged in a heated debate in the Oval Office, with Trump even warning that Ukraine was “gambling on World War III.” Despite the dramatic confrontation broadcast live for the world to witness, the U.S. stock market displayed relatively little reaction. Instead, traders and investors appeared to focus on the possibility of progress in Russo-Ukrainian peace negotiations.While the markets initially dipped following the news, volatility quickly subsided, and stocks began to recover. The "fear index" on Wall Street briefly spiked but stabilized shortly after. Keith Lerner, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Truist Advisory Services, commented that investors seemed to interpret Trump’s remarks as political theatrics ra

During Thursday evening's live session, I emphasized that February represents a pivotal time window for U.S. stock indices. Unlike other periods, this month often dictates the market's trajectory for the entire year. As if on cue, U.S. stock indices experienced a decline on Friday, marking another "Black Friday." While the drop was not severe, its implications should not be underestimated. I advise caution in managing your U.S. stock index positions to guard against potential volatility. For a more detailed analysis of this critical period and corresponding strategies, join me in this Thursday's 8 PM live session.Economic Data Sparks Concerns: U.S. Bonds Surge, Stocks PlungeOn February 21, 2025, Wall Street witnessed one of the worst trading days of the year for U.S. stocks. Despite varyin

Under typical circumstances, Fridays without major economic data releases are usually marked by subdued market movements. However, last Friday saw gold prices experience the largest single-day decline since the current rally began. Does this signify the start of a collapse in gold prices, or is it merely a false retreat by the bulls? To answer this question, one must analyze the underlying news event that triggered this decline.Over the weekend, reports emerged that since Donald Trump’s presidency began, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its third year, with signs of potential negotiations on the horizon. U.S. officials are set to meet with Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the conflict. Details surrounding the talks remain limited, except for the fact that th