To The Moon

Originally, it was anticipated that the market would stabilize as progress was made in tariff negotiations and Russia-Ukraine talks, and the Federal Reserve clarified its interest rate cut trajectory following its latest meeting. However, just as the situation seemed to settle, a fresh wave of India-Pakistan conflict erupted, directly leading to sharp fluctuations in gold prices, signaling a renewed sense of uncertainty in the markets. Although later reports indicated a ceasefire between the two countries, sporadic clashes resumed within hours, making the news cycle highly unstable and necessitating an adjustment in price expectations.1. What Is the Impact on US Stock Indices?Currently, such small-scale regional conflicts have limited impact on the US stock market, and may even provide a m

Last week's post was a timely reminder: gold prices were facing correction expectations. As it turned out, stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll data finally triggered a significant adjustment in gold prices. However, based on historical data of similar gold market trends, this correction is just getting started and remains far from the historical average decline of over 20%. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting approaching next week, gold prices are likely to fall further. For those looking to "buy the dip," it's advisable not to rush in too soon.Historical Magnitude and Timing of Gold CorrectionsAnyone who has followed my posts or live streams knows that I always provide estimations of the extent and timing for every significant market move, and the accuracy of these predict

At the beginning of last week, Trump “threatened” to fire Powell, then later stated he did not plan to dismiss the current Federal Reserve Chairman and hinted at lowering tariffs on China. This caused gold prices to spike and then retreat-a rare volatile movement. These remarks signaled a softening of Trump’s previously hardline stance on tariffs and Fed policy, easing the market’s risk-aversion sentiment to some extent. Since much of gold’s price increase since Trump took office has been driven by safe-haven demand, a shift in Trump’s attitude could trigger a sharp “stampede-like” sell-off among bullish investors, commonly known as a “long liquidation” or “long-unwinding” style correction.1. What is a “Long Liquidation” Style Sell-Off?In a bull market, when negative news is scarce, most m

As Jerome Powell continues to stress uncertainties around the economy and inflation—firmly sticking to a “hawkish” stance against rapid rate cuts—President Trump has now “reached his limit,” openly questioning whether he holds the authority to “fire” the Federal Reserve Chair.Though actually removing Powell in practice would be quite difficult—and with Powell’s term set to expire next year, it·s debatable whether such a move would even be necessary—the increasing disconnect between presidential policy and Fed monetary policy has become stark. Against the backdrop of shifting tariff policies, unexpected headlines have started to hit the market with greater frequency. Given Trump’s characteristic unpredictability, it’s hardly unthinkable that he might impulsively announce Powell’s dismissal,

The recent market has become highly disorderly due to fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies, with dramatic falls and rises triggered by mere words. In this emotional market environment, news can only determine short-term trends. Despite significant volatility, these large fluctuations do not represent medium to long-term market directions. Therefore, Trump's statement about delaying tariff policy implementation by 90 days alone cannot confirm that US stock indices have entered a reversal pattern - what if he changes his mind again in the near future?Technical Observation of US Stock IndicesWith neither news nor fundamentals yielding clear conclusions, it's evident that the market is heavily influenced by emotions. Therefore, tracking the market using technical analysis methods will be mo

On April 4, China announced a series of countermeasures against the United States' imposition of tariffs, including a decisive move to impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the U.S. This unprecedented response caught global markets off guard, highlighting China's preparedness since the 2018 trade war and revealing vulnerabilities in Western financial markets. As news spread, commodities faced significant sell-offs, and global markets began pricing in a potential economic recession. The U.S. stock indices’ sharp decline echoed patterns seen during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, signaling growing pessimism about the global economy.U.S. Stock Indices Enter Recession Mode, Resembling 2020 Pandemic TrendsThough skepticism toward U.S. stock performanc

On March 26, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an announcement at the White House declaring a 25% tariff on imported cars. The measure will take effect on April 2. Trump emphasized that the tariff would be permanent, adding that cars manufactured within the United States would be exempt from the tax.Trump's statement quickly triggered backlash from U.S. trade partners, including the European Union, Canada, and Japan. 1. Where is the Support Level for the Second Phase of the U.S. Stock Index Decline?Recent analyses suggest that the U.S. stock index rebound seen earlier was merely temporary and not indicative of a full recovery. In fact, the rebound was weaker than expected, reinforcing the likelihood that February's peak will remain the high point for the year. Given the renewed downward t

Media Report: U.S. and Russia Expected to Release Joint Statement at 4 PM Beijing Time.According to CBS News, after the Saudi-hosted talks on a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea region, it is anticipated that the United States and Russia will issue a joint statement. .The announcement is scheduled for 4 AM Washington time, 11 AM Moscow time, and 4 PM Beijing time. While specific details of the statement remain unclear, reports from U.S. technical teams in Saudi Arabia shared with the Trump administration appear optimistic. Additionally, Ukrainian officials have been briefed on the developments.Historically, factors driving gold price fluctuations have revolved around two key attributes: its role as a hedge against inflation and its value as a safe-haven asset. Since President Trump took

This Thursday at 2:00 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate setting meeting, which receives significant market attention, especially during quarterly meetings. Previously, there were pessimistic expectations about the Fed cutting rates twice this year. If the post-meeting press conference does not convey a sufficiently hawkish stance, the market might become more optimistic, potentially boosting indices further. Therefore, stock index trends might change around Wednesday this week. If there's a significant rebound on Monday and Tuesday, investors should be cautious about potential peak rebounds on Wednesday, as the market's fear index (VIX) is relatively high, and a double bottom is quite common.Wind Direction: Will the Federal Reserve Remain Cautious This Month,

Last year, to avoid a U.S. government debt default, Congress approved a temporary funding bill extending federal government funding until March 14, 2025. With this deadline approaching next week, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a new temporary funding measure lasting until September 30. This bill is scheduled for a vote next Tuesday. Although the probability of outright rejection is relatively low, uncertainties remain. Political maneuvering by a minority of lawmakers and possible delays from the Democratic Party could complicate or prolong the bill's passage, thereby negatively impacting market sentiment.U.S. Stocks: Approaching Interim Lows—Short-Term Rebound PossibleAfter significant declines last week, major U.S. indices—led by the S&P 500—have dropped around 8%, nearing a