To The Moon

The three indices closed Wednesday along two different paths. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 1.21 per cent to 51,461.90, losing 631.21 points on the day; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.45 per cent lower at 7,551.81, a third consecutive fall; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite barely moved, closing 0.01 per cent lower at 25,978.42. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points that afternoon. All three had been higher before it did, and the turn began with the decision and the press conference. The target range for the federal funds rate went up to 3.75-4 per cent, from 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent before, with

The indices closed lower for a second day on Tuesday, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down 0.45 per cent at 7,585.73, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite down 0.78 per cent at 25,981.57 and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ down 0.63 per cent at 52,093.11. The reason for the fall, though, was not the same one as Monday's. On Monday the market was pricing what four executives had said, which is something that has not happened yet; on Tuesday two things had already produced a result — a Senate motion failed, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached a level it had not touched in nineteen years. The heaviest fall of the day was not in chips but in

The indices barely moved on Monday. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.48 per cent lower, $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.29 per cent lower and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite 0.56 per cent lower. A layer below, the difference was large: $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ closed 5.53 per cent lower, its biggest one-day fall since 1 July, while CrowdStrike closed 13.85 per cent higher at a record. Two sectors were priced in opposite directions on the same day. On Saturday 12 September, Dario Amodei, the chief executive of Anthropic, published "We Must Pace the Frontier", arguin

On Friday the August CPI report landed, traders took the odds of a 25 basis point hike this week from 75 per cent to close to nine in ten, and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.86 per cent higher all the same, ending a four-session slide; $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed 0.98 per cent higher, a gain of more than 500 points. The bet on higher rates got bigger. The buyers came back. August CPI rose 3.4 per cent year on year, level with July and in line with expectations; month on month it rose 0.4 per cent against 0.1 per cent in July. The gasoline index rose 3.9 per cent on the month and accounted for a third of the entire rise in goods prices. Core CPI eased to 2.4 per cent year on year

On Thursday $Oracle(ORCL)$ closed 5.38 per cent lower at US$152.94, and only then reported. Its remaining performance obligations stand at US$664 billion, up from US$638 billion at the end of the previous quarter, a record. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.58 per cent lower the same day, its fourth session in a row heading down and the longest such run since June. The order book set a record. The fall came before it. That US$664 billion is work signed, not money collected. To get the work done, Oracle's capital expenditure ran to about US$28.5 billion in the quarter against US$8.5 billion a year earlier; free cash flow came in at minus US$5.4 billion; and in the same fiscal qua

On Wednesday $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.48 per cent lower, its third session in a row heading down. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ rose 6.55 per cent the same day to close at US$653.69. The whole market was backing away while one of the largest companies in it put on six and a half points, and those look like two unrelated things. They are one thing. What is holding the indexes down is rates: Brent crude moved back above US$100 for the first time in two months, the inflation print lands on Friday, the ten-year Treasury yield was pushed to 4.85 per cent and the thirty-year broke above 5.30 per cent. The Treasury stepped in that day and raised the cap on its buybacks of ten-

All three indexes closed lower on Tuesday, the Dow worst of them at 1.18 per cent, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down 0.58 per cent and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite down 0.32 per cent. Chips went the other way on the same day: Intel put on 9.05 per cent to close at US$104.47, back above US$100 and the biggest gain in the row. The indexes went one way and the chips went the other, and that is the split this day comes down to. What pushed the indexes down was oil. WTI moved above US$94 and Brent came close to US$99, and what pushed oil up were attacks in the Middle East. The attacks fell over the weekend, so they were not in Friday's closing prices and only arrived at Tuesday's open. The

All three indexes closed lower on Friday, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down 0.38 per cent at 7,718.60, $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ down 0.51 per cent and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite down 0.29 per cent. On the same day $Micron Technology(MU)$ closed 6.10 per cent higher at US$1,016.59, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ 11.90 per cent higher at US$1,740.00, $SK hynix(SKHY)$ 8.14 per cent higher at US$177.00, and $Direxion D

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 1.06 per cent higher at 7,747.71 and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ added more than 600 points, the best day for both in a month, and the reason was a sentence from Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor. He said on Thursday that he is willing to support holding rates steady in September as long as inflation keeps moving towards 2 per cent. Bets on a September hike fell from above 60 per cent to a little over half, and the ten-year Treasury yield came back to around 4.75 per cent, a day after touching its highest in more than two years. Waller's reason for holding was to give disinflation a chance: "We can wait one meeting." In the same remarks he left

One batch of results, three different share prices. $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ closed 15.81 per cent higher on Wednesday at US$492.20. Credo's revenue more than doubled from the previous quarter and the stock closed down 20.04 per cent at US$165.22. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ left its answer until after the close, beat on both revenue and earnings, and saw its shares push above US$370 before being knocked back below US$350. The hardest number in Dell's results is US$95 billion — a record order backlog for AI servers. It raised full-year revenue guidance by US$25 billion to US$192 billion at the same time. At least 15 firms moved their targets that day: UBS from US$455 to US$500,