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杨铭琪

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- 杨铭琪杨铭琪
  ·2021-02-01
  fake news
  The short-squeeze army turned to silver! Is the trader behind it really a retail investor?
  未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？
  The short-squeeze army turned to silver! Is the trader behind it really a retail investor?
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Is the trader behind it really a retail investor?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103378464","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？","content":"<p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors squeezing short and institutions paying the bill be staged again? Behind the large-scale short selling, is the mastermind behind it really just a retail investor? What kind of fate will silver usher in in the future? The short squeeze in the stock market battlefield has not yet come to an end, and American retail investors have dug new positions in the futures market.</p><p>The beginning of the story is exactly the same. Last week, on WallStreetBets, also a \"gambler's forum\", a user posted a post calling on retail investors to \"launch the world's largest silver short squeeze\" and boasted to pull the silver price from $25 to a high of $1,000, attracting respondents. gather.</p><p>For a time, both spot and futures silver prices rose sharply, and the world's largest silver ETF-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>Silver Trust is also seeing huge inflows. The rise in the silver market has even spread to other countries around the world, and the domestic futures market and Australian silver mining stocks have been affected.</p><p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors squeezing short and institutions paying the bill be staged again? Behind the large-scale short selling, is the mastermind behind it really just a retail investor? What kind of fate will silver usher in in the future?</p><p><b>One post triggers a skyrocketing silver price</b></p><p>Wall Street News mentioned in a previous article that just as the GameStop short squeeze attracted great attention from the market, a user with the ID of \"jjalj30\" on the WallStreetBets forum posted a post calling on retail investors to focus the next round of short squeeze on silver:</p><p>\"jjalj30\" said that the silver market is currently one of the most manipulated markets in the world. Dozens of banks hide actual inflation by manipulating gold and silver prices. Whether in the industrial field or the monetary field, the current water release actions of global central banks should push up silver prices.<b>The inflation-adjusted silver price should be $1,000/oz instead of $25/oz as it is now.</b>\"jjalj30\" believes that retail investors can conduct a short squeeze by continuously buying silver ETFs (SLVs) and push up silver prices.<b>Even if retail investors don't care about earnings, think something like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It is exciting enough that such a big bank may go bankrupt due to a short squeeze (previously paid a huge fine for silver price operation).</b>Subsequently, investors with the user name \"TheHappyHawaiian\" also expressed similar views,<b>It is believed that more silver futures contracts can be forced to be physically delivered by raising silver prices, thereby squeezing short positions.</b></p><p>\"TheHappyHawaiian\" said that the manipulation of silver prices through naked short selling in the market is mainly by several major Wall Street banks represented by JPMorgan Chase. At present, the average ratio of silver traded on the book to physical silver in the silver futures market is 250: 1, which means that most transactions are completed by cash settlement rather than physical delivery. As long as retail investors can force more futures contracts to physical delivery, they can squeeze silver shorts.<b>Driven by the recent frenzied market atmosphere, the effect of the post is immediate. A group of investors almost practice makes perfect. Today, the spot silver price soared by more than 10% within the day, once standing at $30/oz and hitting a new high since August 11 last year;</b>Futures also opened up 7%, surging to a high of $29.095. At the same time, the gold-silver ratio has also reached its lowest level since 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544a19ab8a6d5f1fb2f5c9da49f248cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><i>Spot silver briefly exceeded $30/oz during the day</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32c45cb4746091e927b69e81d46cb84\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Spot silver hits new high since August last year</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1bc64e4ba9416dad89d3336847b6eb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Comex silver futures surge</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c022e64b306cc738f116b32b3af669a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Gold-silver ratio is the lowest since 2014</i></p><p>In fact, as early as last Friday, the price of silver had fluctuated sharply. The intraday increase of silver futures once exceeded 6%, while the increase of gold futures was only about 0.5% in the same period.</p><p><b>The strong rally has even spread to other countries around the globe.</b>In China's domestic commodity futures market, the increase of the main contract of Shanghai Bank once expanded to 8%, setting a new high since September last year. Australian silver mining stocks also surged on Monday morning, with Argent Minerals up nearly 60%, Investigator Resources up nearly 50% and Boab Metal up 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c070cbb74d6465b3da84a0fcb64d844\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The world's largest silver ETF also ushered in a large inflow of funds. Market data shows that the silver ETF (SLV) had a single-day inflow of $1 billion last Friday, which is almost twice the previous record of the 15-year-old ETF's highest inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2e9cb0ccad6244d34bf3ed1dbe0def\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Under the madness of the silver market, the supply of silver bars and coins on retail websites is also in short supply. According to Bloomberg, many retailers, including Money Metals, SD Bullion, JM Bullion and Apmex, said they were unable to process orders before the Asian market opened due to the current crazy demand for silver and had suspended sales of silver products.</p><p>SD Bullion's CEO said in his article,<b>In the 24 hours before the market closed on Friday, SD Bullion sold nearly 10 times the amount of silver sold throughout the weekend before the market opened on Sunday.</b></p><p>The report quoted Robert Higgins, CEO of Argent Asset Group in Delaware, as saying that he has been handling trading calls all day, people are desperately buying gold and silver, and the current spot market is \"very, very tight.\"</p><p><b>But, really a retail investor?</b></p><p>Is the mastermind behind the scenes really just retail investors? In fact, behind every short-squeeze drama, it seems that it is inseparable from the help of institutions.</p><p>Many analysts believe that judging from the posts on the forum, the professionalism of short-squeezing techniques and strategies is not like that of retail investors. Guo Yafu, president of New York Tianjiao Fund Company, told shanghai securities news:</p><p>I carefully studied their post calling for long silver. From the content point of view, it is definitely not something that ordinary retail investors can write. The post even mentioned the short position of JPMorgan Chase.<b>If there is no institutional shadow, at least some people working in financial institutions are involved in their own names.</b>Huang Jun, a special analyst at FXTM, also said: \"<b>There are a lot of institutions that have been in it, such as some funds and silver miners.</b>”</p><p>What may confirm this view is that,<b>The full text of the above-mentioned \"TheHappyHawaiian\" user's post even gives a professional \"operation template\".</b>Specifically, he wrote:</p><p>I will invest 50% of my funds directly in the SLV ETF and the other 50% in the SLV call option expiring April 16 with a $35 strike price.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d875f71eb18b37c0b2ddd3d1c96b97\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Increased interest in SLV will trigger a rise in silver prices, creating a short squeeze when SLV approaches $35. In the event of a short squeeze, the price target for SLV will reach $75 at the end of April. A more prudent approach would be to buy SLV options and PSLV stock. Not only that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance pointed out that,<b>The article also explains why SLV is a better target among the two major silver ETFs, PSLV and SLV</b>, because SLV itself does not have any short positions, but there are many arbitrage orders within SLV. These arbitrage orders are connected to the spot and futures markets of silver. Destroying SLV can cause a large number of silver short positions gathered in the Comex exchange to collectively collapse.</p><p>According to the article, JPMorgan Chase has no short positions now, so it won't encounter much resistance to pulling silver now. In addition, SLV has other advantages, including: more brokers offer trading on this underlying, better liquidity, and related options trading.</p><p><b>What is the market outlook for silver?</b></p><p>Then, the question that most affects the nerves of the market is: How long can this wave of silver continue to rise?</p><p>The general view of analysts in the market seems to be that they are slightly bullish in the short term, but in the long run, this round of gains may only be temporary.</p><p><b>At the time of writing this article, the spot silver price briefly reached above $30/oz around 4: 10 on Monday. It is worth noting that this point has been broken<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The previously estimated 12-month price target of $30.</b></p><p>John Feeney, an analyst at Australian trader Guardian Vaults, said that the joint action on Reddit forum can indeed significantly affect the price of individual stocks, but if we compare silver with the market value of individual companies, we don't think they have the ability to significantly push silver into a short squeeze state.<b>The market cap of silver is very large, and what people on the forum want is a fast rise, so individuals won't be too bullish.</b></p><p>Some analysts pointed out,<b>The most important point is that there is a fundamental difference between the precious metals market and the stock market. Trying to squeeze out the silver short positions is likely to spread to the foreign exchange market. Once this is the case, central banks will definitely intervene.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Jiasheng Group</a>Joe Perry Represents:</p><p>Precious metals usually play the role of hedging against inflation, and they are rising against the backdrop of the frequent weakening of the US dollar. Neither silver ETF nor spot silver/USD are stocks. If people try to squeeze the short position of silver, it may affect the US dollar and the largest market in the world, namely the foreign exchange market, which is the main difference between precious metals and stocks. Silver, as a precious metal, may affect the trend of the US dollar if it is subject to targeted short covering. But if it does, don't think central banks will sit idly by. There may be many reasons for the dollar's decline, but the \"game\" against precious metals won't be one of them. But some institutions hold different views. As a safe-haven asset, it is also a kind of asset used for production<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>For industrial metals such as battery panels, many institutions have been strongly optimistic about silver recently. Metals Focus analyst Philip Newman once said that 2021 may see the prices of gold and palladium hit new highs, but silver will have the largest increase.</p><p>From a technical perspective, market analyst Jesse Colombo posted on Forbes.com on Sunday that,<b>If silver can break above $30 upwards on strong trading volumes, the likelihood of a subsequent bullish move will increase significantly, and the next price target will be $35/oz.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2afce75bc1cca3a69ed1fc3178148a\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The short-squeeze army turned to silver! Is the trader behind it really a retail investor?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe short-squeeze army turned to silver! Is the trader behind it really a retail investor?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-01 17:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors squeezing short and institutions paying the bill be staged again? Behind the large-scale short selling, is the mastermind behind it really just a retail investor? What kind of fate will silver usher in in the future? The short squeeze in the stock market battlefield has not yet come to an end, and American retail investors have dug new positions in the futures market.</p><p>The beginning of the story is exactly the same. Last week, on WallStreetBets, also a \"gambler's forum\", a user posted a post calling on retail investors to \"launch the world's largest silver short squeeze\" and boasted to pull the silver price from $25 to a high of $1,000, attracting respondents. gather.</p><p>For a time, both spot and futures silver prices rose sharply, and the world's largest silver ETF-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>Silver Trust is also seeing huge inflows. The rise in the silver market has even spread to other countries around the world, and the domestic futures market and Australian silver mining stocks have been affected.</p><p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors squeezing short and institutions paying the bill be staged again? Behind the large-scale short selling, is the mastermind behind it really just a retail investor? What kind of fate will silver usher in in the future?</p><p><b>One post triggers a skyrocketing silver price</b></p><p>Wall Street News mentioned in a previous article that just as the GameStop short squeeze attracted great attention from the market, a user with the ID of \"jjalj30\" on the WallStreetBets forum posted a post calling on retail investors to focus the next round of short squeeze on silver:</p><p>\"jjalj30\" said that the silver market is currently one of the most manipulated markets in the world. Dozens of banks hide actual inflation by manipulating gold and silver prices. Whether in the industrial field or the monetary field, the current water release actions of global central banks should push up silver prices.<b>The inflation-adjusted silver price should be $1,000/oz instead of $25/oz as it is now.</b>\"jjalj30\" believes that retail investors can conduct a short squeeze by continuously buying silver ETFs (SLVs) and push up silver prices.<b>Even if retail investors don't care about earnings, think something like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It is exciting enough that such a big bank may go bankrupt due to a short squeeze (previously paid a huge fine for silver price operation).</b>Subsequently, investors with the user name \"TheHappyHawaiian\" also expressed similar views,<b>It is believed that more silver futures contracts can be forced to be physically delivered by raising silver prices, thereby squeezing short positions.</b></p><p>\"TheHappyHawaiian\" said that the manipulation of silver prices through naked short selling in the market is mainly by several major Wall Street banks represented by JPMorgan Chase. At present, the average ratio of silver traded on the book to physical silver in the silver futures market is 250: 1, which means that most transactions are completed by cash settlement rather than physical delivery. As long as retail investors can force more futures contracts to physical delivery, they can squeeze silver shorts.<b>Driven by the recent frenzied market atmosphere, the effect of the post is immediate. A group of investors almost practice makes perfect. Today, the spot silver price soared by more than 10% within the day, once standing at $30/oz and hitting a new high since August 11 last year;</b>Futures also opened up 7%, surging to a high of $29.095. At the same time, the gold-silver ratio has also reached its lowest level since 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544a19ab8a6d5f1fb2f5c9da49f248cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><i>Spot silver briefly exceeded $30/oz during the day</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32c45cb4746091e927b69e81d46cb84\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Spot silver hits new high since August last year</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1bc64e4ba9416dad89d3336847b6eb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Comex silver futures surge</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c022e64b306cc738f116b32b3af669a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Gold-silver ratio is the lowest since 2014</i></p><p>In fact, as early as last Friday, the price of silver had fluctuated sharply. The intraday increase of silver futures once exceeded 6%, while the increase of gold futures was only about 0.5% in the same period.</p><p><b>The strong rally has even spread to other countries around the globe.</b>In China's domestic commodity futures market, the increase of the main contract of Shanghai Bank once expanded to 8%, setting a new high since September last year. Australian silver mining stocks also surged on Monday morning, with Argent Minerals up nearly 60%, Investigator Resources up nearly 50% and Boab Metal up 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c070cbb74d6465b3da84a0fcb64d844\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The world's largest silver ETF also ushered in a large inflow of funds. Market data shows that the silver ETF (SLV) had a single-day inflow of $1 billion last Friday, which is almost twice the previous record of the 15-year-old ETF's highest inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2e9cb0ccad6244d34bf3ed1dbe0def\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Under the madness of the silver market, the supply of silver bars and coins on retail websites is also in short supply. According to Bloomberg, many retailers, including Money Metals, SD Bullion, JM Bullion and Apmex, said they were unable to process orders before the Asian market opened due to the current crazy demand for silver and had suspended sales of silver products.</p><p>SD Bullion's CEO said in his article,<b>In the 24 hours before the market closed on Friday, SD Bullion sold nearly 10 times the amount of silver sold throughout the weekend before the market opened on Sunday.</b></p><p>The report quoted Robert Higgins, CEO of Argent Asset Group in Delaware, as saying that he has been handling trading calls all day, people are desperately buying gold and silver, and the current spot market is \"very, very tight.\"</p><p><b>But, really a retail investor?</b></p><p>Is the mastermind behind the scenes really just retail investors? In fact, behind every short-squeeze drama, it seems that it is inseparable from the help of institutions.</p><p>Many analysts believe that judging from the posts on the forum, the professionalism of short-squeezing techniques and strategies is not like that of retail investors. Guo Yafu, president of New York Tianjiao Fund Company, told shanghai securities news:</p><p>I carefully studied their post calling for long silver. From the content point of view, it is definitely not something that ordinary retail investors can write. The post even mentioned the short position of JPMorgan Chase.<b>If there is no institutional shadow, at least some people working in financial institutions are involved in their own names.</b>Huang Jun, a special analyst at FXTM, also said: \"<b>There are a lot of institutions that have been in it, such as some funds and silver miners.</b>”</p><p>What may confirm this view is that,<b>The full text of the above-mentioned \"TheHappyHawaiian\" user's post even gives a professional \"operation template\".</b>Specifically, he wrote:</p><p>I will invest 50% of my funds directly in the SLV ETF and the other 50% in the SLV call option expiring April 16 with a $35 strike price.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d875f71eb18b37c0b2ddd3d1c96b97\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Increased interest in SLV will trigger a rise in silver prices, creating a short squeeze when SLV approaches $35. In the event of a short squeeze, the price target for SLV will reach $75 at the end of April. A more prudent approach would be to buy SLV options and PSLV stock. Not only that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance pointed out that,<b>The article also explains why SLV is a better target among the two major silver ETFs, PSLV and SLV</b>, because SLV itself does not have any short positions, but there are many arbitrage orders within SLV. These arbitrage orders are connected to the spot and futures markets of silver. Destroying SLV can cause a large number of silver short positions gathered in the Comex exchange to collectively collapse.</p><p>According to the article, JPMorgan Chase has no short positions now, so it won't encounter much resistance to pulling silver now. In addition, SLV has other advantages, including: more brokers offer trading on this underlying, better liquidity, and related options trading.</p><p><b>What is the market outlook for silver?</b></p><p>Then, the question that most affects the nerves of the market is: How long can this wave of silver continue to rise?</p><p>The general view of analysts in the market seems to be that they are slightly bullish in the short term, but in the long run, this round of gains may only be temporary.</p><p><b>At the time of writing this article, the spot silver price briefly reached above $30/oz around 4: 10 on Monday. It is worth noting that this point has been broken<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The previously estimated 12-month price target of $30.</b></p><p>John Feeney, an analyst at Australian trader Guardian Vaults, said that the joint action on Reddit forum can indeed significantly affect the price of individual stocks, but if we compare silver with the market value of individual companies, we don't think they have the ability to significantly push silver into a short squeeze state.<b>The market cap of silver is very large, and what people on the forum want is a fast rise, so individuals won't be too bullish.</b></p><p>Some analysts pointed out,<b>The most important point is that there is a fundamental difference between the precious metals market and the stock market. Trying to squeeze out the silver short positions is likely to spread to the foreign exchange market. Once this is the case, central banks will definitely intervene.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Jiasheng Group</a>Joe Perry Represents:</p><p>Precious metals usually play the role of hedging against inflation, and they are rising against the backdrop of the frequent weakening of the US dollar. Neither silver ETF nor spot silver/USD are stocks. If people try to squeeze the short position of silver, it may affect the US dollar and the largest market in the world, namely the foreign exchange market, which is the main difference between precious metals and stocks. Silver, as a precious metal, may affect the trend of the US dollar if it is subject to targeted short covering. But if it does, don't think central banks will sit idly by. There may be many reasons for the dollar's decline, but the \"game\" against precious metals won't be one of them. But some institutions hold different views. As a safe-haven asset, it is also a kind of asset used for production<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>For industrial metals such as battery panels, many institutions have been strongly optimistic about silver recently. Metals Focus analyst Philip Newman once said that 2021 may see the prices of gold and palladium hit new highs, but silver will have the largest increase.</p><p>From a technical perspective, market analyst Jesse Colombo posted on Forbes.com on Sunday that,<b>If silver can break above $30 upwards on strong trading volumes, the likelihood of a subsequent bullish move will increase significantly, and the next price target will be $35/oz.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2afce75bc1cca3a69ed1fc3178148a\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619090\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58095e3601987d1105ddaad4a3be8aeb","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619090","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1103378464","content_text":"二月伊始，散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演？大规模做空背后，背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗？未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？股市战场的逼空尚未落下帷幕，美国散户又在期货市场开掘了新的阵地。故事的开端如出一辙。上周，同样是“赌徒论坛” WallStreetBets上，一位用户发帖号召散户“发动一场全球最大的白银逼空”，并豪言要将银价从25美元拉到1000美元高位，引来应者云集。一时间现货、期货银价双双大涨，全球最大的白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust也迎来巨额资金流入。白银市场涨势甚至蔓延到全球其他国家，国内期市、澳大利亚银矿股均受到波及。二月伊始，散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演？大规模做空背后，背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗？未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？一篇帖子引发银价暴涨华尔街见闻在此前文章中提到，就在GameStop逼空引得市场高度关注之际，WallStreetBets论坛上一名ID为“jjalj30”的用户，发帖号召散户将下一轮逼空火力聚焦在白银上：“jjalj30”表示，白银市场目前是全球最受操纵的市场之一。数十家银行通过操纵黄金和白银价格来掩盖实际的通货膨胀。无论是在工业领域还是在货币领域，目前全球央行的放水行动都该推高白银价格。 经过通胀调整后的白银价格应该是1000美元/盎司，而不是现在的25美元/盎司。“jjalj30”认为，散户投资者可以通过持续买入白银ETF（SLV）来进行逼空，推高白银价格。 即使散户投资者不在乎收益，想想类似摩根大通（此前因白银价格操作支付巨额罚单）这样的大行可能因为逼空而破产，这就足以激动人心。随后，用户名为“TheHappyHawaiian”的投资者也表达了类似观点，认为可以通过抬高银价迫使更多白银期货合约进行实物交割，从而挤压空头。“TheHappyHawaiian”表示，市场上通过裸卖空操纵白银价格主要是以摩根大通为代表的几家华尔街大行。目前白银期货市场上账面交易的白银与实物白银的平均比率为250:1，这意味着多数交易是通过现金结算而不是实物交割完成交易。只要散户投资者能迫使更多的期货合约进行实物交割，就能挤压白银空头。近期狂热市场氛围的推动下，帖子一出效果立竿见影。一众投资者几乎是熟能生巧一般地，今天将现货白银价格猛推至日内暴涨逾10%，一度站上30美元/盎司，并创下去年8月11日以来新高；期货开盘也上涨7％，飙升至29.095美元高点。与此同时，金银比也来到2014年来最低水平。现货白银日内短暂突破30美元/盎司现货白银创下去年8月来新高Comex白银期货猛飙金银比为2014来最低而事实上早在上周五，白银价格就已经出现大幅波动，白银期货盘中涨幅一度突破6%，而黄金期货同期涨幅仅约0.5%。强劲的涨势甚至蔓延到全球其他国家。中国国内商品期市上，沪银主力合约涨幅一度扩大至8%，刷新去年9月以来高位。澳大利亚银矿股周一早间股价也大幅飙升， Argent Minerals上涨近60%，Investigator Resources涨近50%，Boab Metal涨20%。全球最大白银ETF也迎来资金大幅流入。市场数据显示，白银ETF（SLV）上周五单日流入资金高达10亿美元，这几乎是这个已有15年历史ETF此前最高流入记录的2倍。银市疯狂之下，零售网站上的银条、银币也随之供不应求。据彭博报道，包括Money Metals、SD Bullion、JM Bullion和Apmex在内的诸多零售商均表示，鉴于白银当前的疯狂需求，它们在亚洲市场开盘前无法处理订单，已暂停销售白银产品。SD Bullion首席执行官在其文章中表示，周五收盘前的24小时内，SD Bullion卖出白银数量，几乎是平时周日开盘前整个周末卖出数量的近10倍。报道援引特拉华州Argent Asset Group首席执行官Robert Higgins称，他整天都在处理交易电话，人们都在拼命购买黄金和白银，当前现货市场“非常、非常吃紧”。但是，真的是散户？幕后主谋真的只是散户吗？事实上，每一场逼空大戏背后，似乎都离不开机构的推波助澜。不少分析师认为，从论坛上的帖子来看，逼空的手法和策略的专业度并不似散户所为。纽约天骄基金公司总裁郭亚夫告诉对上海证券报表示：我认真研读了他们号召做多白银的帖子，从内容上看，绝对不是普通散户可以写出来的内容，帖子里甚至提到了摩根大通的空头仓位。 如果说没有机构影子的话，至少也有在金融机构工作的人以个人名义参与了。FXTM富拓特约分析师黄俊也称：“有很多机构一直在里面，比如一些基金和白银矿商。”也许能印证这一观点的是，上述提及“TheHappyHawaiian”用户的发帖全文中，甚至给出了颇具专业性的“操作模板”。具体操作上，他写道：我将把50%的资金直接投资于SLV ETF，另外50%投资于4月16日到期的SLV看涨期权，行权价35美元。SLV的持仓量增加将引发白银价格上涨，当SLV接近35美元时，就会产生空头挤压。如果出现轧空，4月底SLV的目标价将达到75美元。更为审慎的做法是购买SLV期权和PSLV股票。不仅如此，新浪财经指出，该文还解释了为何在PSLV和SLV两大白银ETF中，SLV是更好的标的，因为SLV自身没有什么空头，但SLV内部有很多套利盘，这些套利盘与白银的现货、期货市场相联，打掉SLV就可以让Comex交易所里面大量聚集的白银空头集体崩溃。该文表示，现在摩根大通手上已经没什么空头了，所以现在拉白银不会遇到太大阻力。此外，SLV还有其他优势，包括：有更多经纪商提供这一标的的交易、流动性更好、有相关期权交易。白银后市如何？那么，最牵动市场神经的问题是：白银这一波到底还能涨多久？市场上分析师的普遍观点似乎是，短期小幅看多，但放长远看，这轮涨势就可能只是暂时的了。就在撰写文章当口，现货白银价格已于周一4：10左右短暂来到30美元/盎司以上。值得注意的是，这一点位已突破高盛此前所估30美元的12个月目标价。澳洲交易商Guardian Vaults分析师John Feeney表示，Reddit论坛上的联合行动确实可以大幅影响个别股票的价格，但如果把白银和个人公司的市值相比较，不认为他们有能力显著推动白银进入逼空状态。白银的市值非常大，而论坛上的人想要的是快速上涨，因此个人不会看涨太多。有分析师指出，最重要的一点是，贵金属市场与股票市场存在根本差异，尝试挤爆白银空头很可能波及外汇市场，一旦如此，各国央行绝对会出手干预。嘉盛集团Joe Perry表示：贵金属通常扮演对冲通胀的角色，在美元时常走弱的背景下，贵金属走高。白银ETF和现货白银/美元都不是股票，如果人们尝试挤爆白银空头，可能影响美元与全球交易量最大的市场，即外汇市场，这是贵金属与股票之间的主要差别。作为贵金属的白银如果遭到针对性的空头回补，可能影响美元的走势。但如果确有其事，不要以为各国央行会袖手旁观。美元下跌的原因可能很多，但针对贵金属的“游戏”不会是其中之一。但也有机构持不同观点。作为一种避险资产，也是一种用于生产太阳能电池板等产品的工业金属，不少机构近期原本就强烈看好白银。Metals Focus分析师Philip Newman就曾表示，2021年或将看到黄金和钯金的价格再创新高，但白银的升幅将是最大的。从技术面看，市场分析师Jesse Colombo周日在福布斯网站发文称，如果白银能够在强劲的交易量下向上突破30美元，则后续看涨的可能性将大幅增加，下一个目标价位将是35美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}